Ark Funds
Re: Ark Funds
Nope. I don't always do active management, but when I do, I do it myself.
- TheTimeLord
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Re: Ark Funds
ARK is the biggest Tesla bulls on the street so you are likely to find lots of it in their funds. Which is good or bad depending on your view.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
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- AlabamaPaul
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Re: Ark Funds
I have ARKK in my Roth. Some speculative investing keeps me off the streets and out of bars...
Re: Ark Funds
I have a small part of the portfolio (5%) in Ark funds. ARKK, ARKF and ARKW
Re: Ark Funds
This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general question).
vtsaxFan, Welcome!
vtsaxFan, Welcome!
Re: Ark Funds
I don't own any of them, but I do find them intriguing and follow their holdings from time to time (being one of the most well known of the so called "thematic" funds). The performance of course has been spectacular, even compared to other tech funds. Very interested to see going forward whether they can actually identify the future of innovation or if it's all just luck.
One fund I don't care much for is ARKG. Biotech and other "hard" tech can really only be judged accurately by domain experts, not financial analyst types. Of course, I'm sort of contradicting myself since TSLA could also be argued to fall in this category. But it seems the TSLA bull thesis is partially that Musk is a messiah and perhaps true believers can identify those.
I'll note that TSLA and SQ, two of the top holdings of ARKK that have done quite well both have founders/CEOs who have also founded another enormously successful/valuable venture. Could just be a coincidence, but I feel it's rather thought-provoking.
One fund I don't care much for is ARKG. Biotech and other "hard" tech can really only be judged accurately by domain experts, not financial analyst types. Of course, I'm sort of contradicting myself since TSLA could also be argued to fall in this category. But it seems the TSLA bull thesis is partially that Musk is a messiah and perhaps true believers can identify those.
I'll note that TSLA and SQ, two of the top holdings of ARKK that have done quite well both have founders/CEOs who have also founded another enormously successful/valuable venture. Could just be a coincidence, but I feel it's rather thought-provoking.
Re: Ark Funds
I find them quite interesting and I enjoy watching their run, but I think they will eventually fall in the same category as all the other active manage funds.
Re: Ark Funds
I have a small amount of fun money invested in ARKK. I really like their thought process to invest in disruptive companies. It's definitely a risky way to manage a fund, but imagine investing in Amazon, Google, or Netflix before what they are now? All these companies were/are disruptors. So Ark's thesis is finding these disruptors before they become behemoths.
I'm hoping they become the next Berkshire where one share is like $300k
I'm hoping they become the next Berkshire where one share is like $300k
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Re: Ark Funds
I bought some ARK funds namely ARKK,ARKW,ARKG,ARKF (in that order of weighting) a few months ago and have been very happy, they are all up 24-35% in that time. One thing I do like is the transparency of the company through weekly newsletters and even a daily trading report showing every buy/sell trade they made that day. That is not at all actionable information for me, but I like the attitude. The other thing I like is that they have very low overlap with S&P500, and very low FAANG exposure. Most other Tech-tilting ETFs cause a large overconcentration in FAANG if you are already in S&P500.
ARK are famously Tesla bulls and ARKK/ARKW are Tesla-heavy about 10% each. But as they keep that percentage as a rough maximum, I see that as a way of scaling back (relatively speaking) as the stock has rocketed, and I can see through the trading reports them selling off a bit of Tesla to keep that percentage every time the price rockets.
I'm aware there is a fair bit of overlap holding the four funds I have and I'm OK with that with the weightings I gave them, although if I were to do it again I might do differently... but as they are in taxable I'd have STCG if I changed anything now. ARKK is the most diversified in terms of sectors. But as someone interestingly pointed out on Reddit, if you want higher diversification in terms of diversification of number of companies and their weighting you are actually better off buying 25% each of the four ARKW,ARKG,ARKF,ARKQ than buying solely ARKK - see this spreadsheet/graphic they created.
Such a 25/25/25/25 split hasn't actually performed quite as well as ARKK alone in terms of returns, presumably just different sector performance, but it has had lower volatility and higher Sharpe. Although including ARKF limits you to Mar 2019 for backtesting.
PV Link
ARK are famously Tesla bulls and ARKK/ARKW are Tesla-heavy about 10% each. But as they keep that percentage as a rough maximum, I see that as a way of scaling back (relatively speaking) as the stock has rocketed, and I can see through the trading reports them selling off a bit of Tesla to keep that percentage every time the price rockets.
ARKG certainly feels a lot more volatile than the others and it has swings that often go in a different direction than the market. There may be validity to your point on that one... but I just don't know enough about ARK competancy in evaluating that sector.langlands wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:34 pm One fund I don't care much for is ARKG. Biotech and other "hard" tech can really only be judged accurately by domain experts, not financial analyst types. Of course, I'm sort of contradicting myself since TSLA could also be argued to fall in this category. But it seems the TSLA bull thesis is partially that Musk is a messiah and perhaps true believers can identify those.
I'm aware there is a fair bit of overlap holding the four funds I have and I'm OK with that with the weightings I gave them, although if I were to do it again I might do differently... but as they are in taxable I'd have STCG if I changed anything now. ARKK is the most diversified in terms of sectors. But as someone interestingly pointed out on Reddit, if you want higher diversification in terms of diversification of number of companies and their weighting you are actually better off buying 25% each of the four ARKW,ARKG,ARKF,ARKQ than buying solely ARKK - see this spreadsheet/graphic they created.
Such a 25/25/25/25 split hasn't actually performed quite as well as ARKK alone in terms of returns, presumably just different sector performance, but it has had lower volatility and higher Sharpe. Although including ARKF limits you to Mar 2019 for backtesting.
PV Link
Re: Ark Funds
The Ark ETFs are very interesting, I have looked into them. If you want an investment in the new and emerging technologies, this would be a good place to look. I view these as a "Tiger in the Tank" investment, sort of like a gasoline additive to boost octane to give your engine a bit more performance. You want enough to boost performance a bit but not so much that you blow up the gas tank. One of their ETFs was 10% Tesla which gave me a bit of heartburn. Also note that High Tech/Internet/NASDAQ are in sort of a buying panic right now, lots of folks not wanting to miss out on the Tech rally, my own feeling is that I wouldn't touch these now.
What I would say is that these are interesting investments, I liked what I read on their website, but not sure what I would tell people who are considering these. They would certainly be on my watch list. I went through a couple of their slide presentations, I noticed that their portfolio managers had Bachelor's Degrees not not the graduate level Masters' and PhD Degrees that I would have expected. I have no recommendation on these. Also note these have a 0.75% expense ratio, another thing that would deter Bogleheads.
What I would say is that these are interesting investments, I liked what I read on their website, but not sure what I would tell people who are considering these. They would certainly be on my watch list. I went through a couple of their slide presentations, I noticed that their portfolio managers had Bachelor's Degrees not not the graduate level Masters' and PhD Degrees that I would have expected. I have no recommendation on these. Also note these have a 0.75% expense ratio, another thing that would deter Bogleheads.
A fool and his money are good for business.
- TheTimeLord
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Re: Ark Funds
Ironic given Exxon being removed from the DOW.nedsaid wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:05 am The Ark ETFs are very interesting, I have looked into them. If you want an investment in the new and emerging technologies, this would be a good place to look. I view these as a "Tiger in the Tank" investment, sort of like a gasoline additive to boost octane to give your engine a bit more performance. You want enough to boost performance a bit but not so much that you blow up the gas tank. One of their ETFs was 10% Tesla which gave me a bit of heartburn. Also note that High Tech/Internet/NASDAQ are in sort of a buying panic right now, lots of folks not wanting to miss out on the Tech rally, my own feeling is that I wouldn't touch these now.
What I would say is that these are interesting investments, I liked what I read on their website, but not sure what I would tell people who are considering these. They would certainly be on my watch list. I went through a couple of their slide presentations, I noticed that their portfolio managers had Bachelor's Degrees not not the graduate level Masters' and PhD Degrees that I would have expected. I have no recommendation on these. Also note these have a 0.75% expense ratio, another thing that would deter Bogleheads.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
- TheTimeLord
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Re: Ark Funds
Do you really need to correctly identify more than 1?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: Ark Funds
I saw their CEO/CIO, (Cathy/Catherine) Woods, in an interview around 2 years ago in Bloomberg/CSNBC and have been monitoring them since. After listening to their other analyst from other interviews and reading their goal(s), I started buying early this year Jan/Feb. Took me a while to swim in their pool and I hope they succeed. I have ARKK in ROTH and taxable/speculative holdings, small amount vs whole market holdings in our account..
Last edited by flyphotoguy on Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Ark Funds
They are probably gonna fall victim to the dreaded asset bloat.
The hot hand attracts a boatload of new money, and the fund needs to deploy leading to future underperformance.
The hot hand attracts a boatload of new money, and the fund needs to deploy leading to future underperformance.
Re: Ark Funds
I have a few shares of ARKK. Total allocation will never be more than 5% of my equity allocation.
Re: Ark Funds
I follow a four fund philosophy - the Boglehead Three Fund Portfolio plus REITS (VNQ). Outside of that, I have about one percent of my portfolio in what I would call public venture capital and that portfolio is comprised of a handful of stocks and ARKG, ARKW and ARKQ.
Re: Ark Funds
$37 for ARKK on March 20th - would have been a great buy!
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Re: Ark Funds
Have $1000 invested in each of the ARK funds ($5000 total) , about 3 years ago (1 year ago for the newer funds). It was fun money.
That fun money got serious since then.
I am in the Information Security and AI/ML space, and I think they are onto something here. Big fan of Internet Next Gen, Fintech and Biotech funds.
That fun money got serious since then.
I am in the Information Security and AI/ML space, and I think they are onto something here. Big fan of Internet Next Gen, Fintech and Biotech funds.
Re: Ark Funds
I agree with this. I haven't heard of Ark Invest until about sometimes last year. Is Cathie Wood the next Peter Lynch? Maybe or maybe not. Most people don't know about Ark Invest until AFTER a bunch of gains that outpaced its competitor ie. QQQ or VGT. Almost all the outperformance has occured after April 2020, probably mainly due to TSLA. ARKK: TSLA is 9.57% of portfolio. QQQ: TSLA is only 3.57%. VGT: TSLA is 0%... TSLA is considered as consumer discretionary with Vanguard (VCR): and it is 4.42%. so the question is: can ARK invest find new TSLA-like companies that will outperform going forward??? It is hard. If I were to tilt towards tech, then I would just buy QQQ or VGT. Similarly, if I were to buy growth funds then I would just buy VIGAX (vanguard large growth index) and not AGTHX (American Funds The Growth Funds of America).
Re: Ark Funds
I am not a fan.
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Re: Ark Funds
Not sure that is entirely accurate regarding years prior to 2020, though TSLA has certainly helped this year. There was outperformance in ARKK in the years prior to 2020 too...
ARKK,QQQ,VGT,VOO
I get the concern of having a concentration in a stock like TSLA, and the limited diversification, but at least they keep a limit on that percentage by selling it off when needed to keep the proportions. VGT is close to 40% in just two stocks - 21.5% Apple and 17% Microsoft, while QQQ is around 14% Apple, 11% Microsoft, 11% Amazon. While I'm not at all equating those companies with a company like Tesla, that's still a pretty huge concentration in a couple of companies. Just saying.....
Re: Ark Funds
Good points. Thanks for pointing those out.occambogle wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:30 pmNot sure that is entirely accurate regarding years prior to 2020, though TSLA has certainly helped this year. There was outperformance in ARKK in the years prior to 2020 too...
ARKK,QQQ,VGT,VOO
I get the concern of having a concentration in a stock like TSLA, and the limited diversification, but at least they keep a limit on that percentage by selling it off when needed to keep the proportions. VGT is close to 40% in just two stocks - 21.5% Apple and 17% Microsoft, while QQQ is around 14% Apple, 11% Microsoft, 11% Amazon. While I'm not at all equating those companies with a company like Tesla, that's still a pretty huge concentration in a couple of companies. Just saying.....
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Re: Ark Funds
I love ARK funds and have about 5% of my portfolio between ARKK, ARKG, and ARKF... this is my “innovation” play. I’ve done really well with these and wish I had a lot more room in my Roth for them!
Re: Ark Funds
I do own ExxonMobil stock by the way.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:12 amIronic given Exxon being removed from the DOW.nedsaid wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:05 am The Ark ETFs are very interesting, I have looked into them. If you want an investment in the new and emerging technologies, this would be a good place to look. I view these as a "Tiger in the Tank" investment, sort of like a gasoline additive to boost octane to give your engine a bit more performance. You want enough to boost performance a bit but not so much that you blow up the gas tank. One of their ETFs was 10% Tesla which gave me a bit of heartburn. Also note that High Tech/Internet/NASDAQ are in sort of a buying panic right now, lots of folks not wanting to miss out on the Tech rally, my own feeling is that I wouldn't touch these now.
What I would say is that these are interesting investments, I liked what I read on their website, but not sure what I would tell people who are considering these. They would certainly be on my watch list. I went through a couple of their slide presentations, I noticed that their portfolio managers had Bachelor's Degrees not not the graduate level Masters' and PhD Degrees that I would have expected. I have no recommendation on these. Also note these have a 0.75% expense ratio, another thing that would deter Bogleheads.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Ark Funds
I won't pay .75 expense ration for any fund when I can get good ones at Vanguard for .03 -.10.
I'm very cheap.
I'm very cheap.
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Re: Ark Funds
Just FYI... ARK have their monthly market update webinar in about an hour from now....
https://ark-invest.com/webinars/
https://ark-invest.com/webinars/
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Re: Ark Funds
Apples and oranges!Carol88888 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:37 pm I won't pay .75 expense ration for any fund when I can get good ones at Vanguard for .03 -.10.
I'm very cheap.
Re: Ark Funds
I have some Ark funds as a small percentage of my portfolio. I like a lot of their holdings and I like most of their analysis, but +1 to langland's point about "hard tech". Ark's analysis on TSLA puts far too much stock in the marketing hype around robotaxis; there's nowhere near the substance they think there is, and other players are still far ahead. (That said, I think their other parts of their Tesla investment thesis are well-founded, and I believe in their base scenario, just not some of the more optimistic ones.)
It's worth noting as well that VGT and QQQ have had slightly better risk-adjusted returns than ARKK, so I feel more comfortable just investing in the former to remove management risk that's not being compensated for in ARKK's returns. No matter how much I like their ability to foresee disruptive trends and analyze companies, it's still likely they can't do so significantly better at that than the market in aggregate.
It's worth noting as well that VGT and QQQ have had slightly better risk-adjusted returns than ARKK, so I feel more comfortable just investing in the former to remove management risk that's not being compensated for in ARKK's returns. No matter how much I like their ability to foresee disruptive trends and analyze companies, it's still likely they can't do so significantly better at that than the market in aggregate.
Re: Ark Funds
A co-worker asked me my thoughts on Ark funds a few weeks ago. As soon as I saw the ER, I told him I can’t afford the +4000% increase on what I already have with Fidelity.
Re: Ark Funds
Agree on ARKG. Don´t think CRISPR based therapies will be big cash cows in the next decades. Nor will there be a massive increase in demand for genetic testing (unless for some nonesense scam). Also, there is no monopoly on mRNA based therapies, so nothing is stopping big pharma from playing in that field as well if they see fit. The difference between biotech and consumer directed tech is that the products actually need to provide a measurable benefit and be cost-effective. It is not enough to be trendy. Plus, you can´t force innovation in biotech. Just because companies are starting to work on something really doesn´t mean there will be a product in clinical use ten years later (we might see this with the vaccines for covid...)langlands wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:34 pm I don't own any of them, but I do find them intriguing and follow their holdings from time to time (being one of the most well known of the so called "thematic" funds). The performance of course has been spectacular, even compared to other tech funds. Very interested to see going forward whether they can actually identify the future of innovation or if it's all just luck.
One fund I don't care much for is ARKG. Biotech and other "hard" tech can really only be judged accurately by domain experts, not financial analyst types. Of course, I'm sort of contradicting myself since TSLA could also be argued to fall in this category. But it seems the TSLA bull thesis is partially that Musk is a messiah and perhaps true believers can identify those.
I'll note that TSLA and SQ, two of the top holdings of ARKK that have done quite well both have founders/CEOs who have also founded another enormously successful/valuable venture. Could just be a coincidence, but I feel it's rather thought-provoking.
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Re: Ark Funds
I put my kids Roth IRA into arkk @ $100
Let’s see what happens
Play money
Let’s see what happens
Play money
Re: Ark Funds
Can someone explain the tax implications
Of one of these ARK active etfs in a taxable account? If one holds it over a year, and then sells, would it be all long term cap gains?
Of one of these ARK active etfs in a taxable account? If one holds it over a year, and then sells, would it be all long term cap gains?
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Re: Ark Funds
I held a position in ARKK earlier this year. Cashed out once it hit 20+% gains. Made a few $k of short term gains. Manager seemed to do a good job of growth stock picking.
- CardinalRule
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Re: Ark Funds
Same here. Bought a little as part of my equity allocation, and sold after it was up 17.5%. I first learned about ARKK when I saw it on Kiplinger Magazine's "Kip ETF 20" list. It has a big (10%) exposure to Tesla, and some of the other high flying holdings like Invitae, Roku, Twilio, and Zillow also make me nervous. Just not my cup of tea, but I won't be surprised to see ARKK go higher.ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:11 am I held a position in ARKK earlier this year. Cashed out once it hit 20+% gains. Made a few $k of short term gains. Manager seemed to do a good job of growth stock picking.
I am not very familiar with the other ARK funds.
Re: Ark Funds
Thanks. Is there any difference in holding this in taxable vs let’s say VTi?
Re: Ark Funds
I've been watching them for a while. I've always been interested in investing in "emerging technologies" - especially "tech" and biotech. I actually have it in my IPS that if I ever were to "tilt" then those are the sectors I would be looking into. Now if I do, I will limit it to my play money account. I haven't actually done it though. I mostly held back because I already have most of my play money in Tesla (it really started dwarfing the rest while I wasn't looking ).
But whenever I find myself with more "play money" to deploy, then I will probably start a position in Ark fund(s).
But whenever I find myself with more "play money" to deploy, then I will probably start a position in Ark fund(s).
Last edited by pasadena on Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Ark Funds
Tech-tilt is the new small cap value tilt...pasadena wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:47 pm I've been watching them for a while. I've always been interested in investing in "emerging technologies" - especially "tech" and biotech. I actually have it in my IPS that if I ever were to "tilt" then those are the sectors I would be looking into. Now if I do, I will limit it to my play money account. I haven't actually done it though. I mostly held back because I already have most of my play money in Tesla already (it really started dwarfing the rest while I wasn't looking ).
But whenever I find myself with more "lay money" to deploy, then I will probably start a position in Ark fund(s).
Re: Ark Funds
I guess it's more like the sector version of it.TheoLeo wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:10 pmTech-tilt is the new small cap value tilt...pasadena wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:47 pm I've been watching them for a while. I've always been interested in investing in "emerging technologies" - especially "tech" and biotech. I actually have it in my IPS that if I ever were to "tilt" then those are the sectors I would be looking into. Now if I do, I will limit it to my play money account. I haven't actually done it though. I mostly held back because I already have most of my play money in Tesla already (it really started dwarfing the rest while I wasn't looking ).
But whenever I find myself with more "lay money" to deploy, then I will probably start a position in Ark fund(s).
Re: Ark Funds
You’ll owe less tax on dividends and more on capital gains distributions in ARKK than on VTI, though dividends paid by ARK will probably not be all qualified. As for the other ARK ETFs consult the ARK web page. https://etfs.ark-funds.com/hubfs/1_Down ... K_ETFs.pdf
ARKK - ARK Innovation ETF — 0.75% Expense Ratio
0.11% dividend yield
O.37% short term capital gains (2019)
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares — 0.03% Expense Ratio
1.85% dividend yield
No capital gains distributions
The problem, as I see it, with owning the ARK ETFs in taxable is that if you see huge gains and want to sell, you may hesitate due to owing capital gains tax. Since they’re expected to be volatile you may be sorely tempted to sell at times. On the other hand with VTI you will not be so sorely tempted (Of course if they plunge in value it affords you the opportunity of tax loss harvesting.) VTI can theoretically be held forever.
Some of ARC’s dividends may be from foreign sources in which case you could declare any withheld tax on your tax return if held in a taxable account. None of VTI’s are.
Given the choice I would hold VTI in taxable and ARK in after tax accounts such as a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k). Then I would feel free to buy/sell the more volatile investment at will. It may be that with ARK this year’s capital gains distribution will be higher than last year’s, given the huge gains this year and their high turnover, but this is pure speculation on my part.
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:21 am, edited 3 times in total.
Re: Ark Funds
Just heard about ark funds from a pod cast and remember this thread. First thing it came to my mind is CGM Focus Fund. It did super well during the bull market before 2008. Then it did so poorly at the market crash and ever since.
Re: Ark Funds
I learned about ARK this year when Tesla started going crazy. I looked further into them and I really like their philosophy. I bought a couple of shares and as someone else mentioned, I hope they are the next Berkshire.
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Re: Ark Funds
I agree in general, but editing is here to stay, and there's always a technology lag on the way to the clinic. Lot of older stuff is active; TALENs, ZFNs, transposable elements (Tessera). Lot of new stuff on the way; Cas12, Cas13, base-editing. I don't really know know much about CRISPR/Editas/Intellia, other than it obviously doesn't seem like you can just be an editing company, you need to actually do something with the technology, or partner/license. Field changes fast, so Doudna rolls out better version with Scribe along with the Nobel? So you would need to have a handle on each companies IP, and who they're partnering with/selling to, in addition to what they're trying to do in-house. Editing is also in agriculture. Aquabounty (in ARKG) does fish.TheoLeo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:16 pmAgree on ARKG. Don´t think CRISPR based therapies will be big cash cows in the next decades. Nor will there be a massive increase in demand for genetic testing (unless for some nonesense scam). Also, there is no monopoly on mRNA based therapies, so nothing is stopping big pharma from playing in that field as well if they see fit. The difference between biotech and consumer directed tech is that the products actually need to provide a measurable benefit and be cost-effective. It is not enough to be trendy. Plus, you can´t force innovation in biotech. Just because companies are starting to work on something really doesn´t mean there will be a product in clinical use ten years later (we might see this with the vaccines for covid...)langlands wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:34 pm I don't own any of them, but I do find them intriguing and follow their holdings from time to time (being one of the most well known of the so called "thematic" funds). The performance of course has been spectacular, even compared to other tech funds. Very interested to see going forward whether they can actually identify the future of innovation or if it's all just luck.
One fund I don't care much for is ARKG. Biotech and other "hard" tech can really only be judged accurately by domain experts, not financial analyst types. Of course, I'm sort of contradicting myself since TSLA could also be argued to fall in this category. But it seems the TSLA bull thesis is partially that Musk is a messiah and perhaps true believers can identify those.
I'll note that TSLA and SQ, two of the top holdings of ARKK that have done quite well both have founders/CEOs who have also founded another enormously successful/valuable venture. Could just be a coincidence, but I feel it's rather thought-provoking.
As far as genetic testing, Illumina just repatriated Grail, and they may very well have a test that everybody on here will get every year?
There's too much momentum for RNA targeting not to result in the ability to drug currently undruggable targets over some timeframe. Big pharma will get in the game, but they typically do that by buying smaller companies. Protein degradation is really jumping off as well, as well as a half-dozen other things. The beauty of biotech investing, if you were so inclined, is that you can focus on buyouts if you stick with smaller companies. Big pharma has bought plenty of stuff that has tanked, but as an individual investor you are unaffected, you got your premium.
My problem with something like VGHCX is that I would want biotechnology (18.1%), but get a lot of other stuff like managed healthcare (11.6%). ARKG is a little more focused, but still has plenty of other stuff like Illumina, Nanostring, Thermo, which seem like great companies, but are more facilitators of biotechnology? I also don't like the larger companies that are less likely to be bought. Figure they're already in the indexes. If there were a small-cap biotech fund that was rolling the dice on all the new-fangled technology (CCCC, SQZ etc.) and all the stuff rapidly cueing up (Century, Arbor, Tscan, Flame etc.), I might be interested in that.
Re: Ark Funds
Ark: so now we can use a fund to chase performance. What a novel idea. I predict these funds will not sustain current returns.
Paul
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: Ark Funds
Yes, I've had a change of heart and also see the positives of ARKG. My main problem with ARKG is just the expense ratio of 0.75%, and I wasn't sure if it could be justified. However, I forgot that XBI, a biotech ETF that follows a passive index I used to own already has an expense ratio of 0.35%. So really the active management hurdle is 0.4%, which I think is worth it. So in the interest of full disclosure, I thought I should say I own ARKG despite the negative things I said before .Chicken Little wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:10 amI agree in general, but editing is here to stay, and there's always a technology lag on the way to the clinic. Lot of older stuff is active; TALENs, ZFNs, transposable elements (Tessera). Lot of new stuff on the way; Cas12, Cas13, base-editing. I don't really know know much about CRISPR/Editas/Intellia, other than it obviously doesn't seem like you can just be an editing company, you need to actually do something with the technology, or partner/license. Field changes fast, so Doudna rolls out better version with Scribe along with the Nobel? So you would need to have a handle on each companies IP, and who they're partnering with/selling to, in addition to what they're trying to do in-house. Editing is also in agriculture. Aquabounty (in ARKG) does fish.TheoLeo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:16 pmAgree on ARKG. Don´t think CRISPR based therapies will be big cash cows in the next decades. Nor will there be a massive increase in demand for genetic testing (unless for some nonesense scam). Also, there is no monopoly on mRNA based therapies, so nothing is stopping big pharma from playing in that field as well if they see fit. The difference between biotech and consumer directed tech is that the products actually need to provide a measurable benefit and be cost-effective. It is not enough to be trendy. Plus, you can´t force innovation in biotech. Just because companies are starting to work on something really doesn´t mean there will be a product in clinical use ten years later (we might see this with the vaccines for covid...)langlands wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:34 pm I don't own any of them, but I do find them intriguing and follow their holdings from time to time (being one of the most well known of the so called "thematic" funds). The performance of course has been spectacular, even compared to other tech funds. Very interested to see going forward whether they can actually identify the future of innovation or if it's all just luck.
One fund I don't care much for is ARKG. Biotech and other "hard" tech can really only be judged accurately by domain experts, not financial analyst types. Of course, I'm sort of contradicting myself since TSLA could also be argued to fall in this category. But it seems the TSLA bull thesis is partially that Musk is a messiah and perhaps true believers can identify those.
I'll note that TSLA and SQ, two of the top holdings of ARKK that have done quite well both have founders/CEOs who have also founded another enormously successful/valuable venture. Could just be a coincidence, but I feel it's rather thought-provoking.
As far as genetic testing, Illumina just repatriated Grail, and they may very well have a test that everybody on here will get every year?
There's too much momentum for RNA targeting not to result in the ability to drug currently undruggable targets over some timeframe. Big pharma will get in the game, but they typically do that by buying smaller companies. Protein degradation is really jumping off as well, as well as a half-dozen other things. The beauty of biotech investing, if you were so inclined, is that you can focus on buyouts if you stick with smaller companies. Big pharma has bought plenty of stuff that has tanked, but as an individual investor you are unaffected, you got your premium.
My problem with something like VGHCX is that I would want biotechnology (18.1%), but get a lot of other stuff like managed healthcare (11.6%). ARKG is a little more focused, but still has plenty of other stuff like Illumina, Nanostring, Thermo, which seem like great companies, but are more facilitators of biotechnology? I also don't like the larger companies that are less likely to be bought. Figure they're already in the indexes. If there were a small-cap biotech fund that was rolling the dice on all the new-fangled technology (CCCC, SQZ etc.) and all the stuff rapidly cueing up (Century, Arbor, Tscan, Flame etc.), I might be interested in that.
Re: Ark Funds
To test for what? If there are signs for congenital disease, people already get tested for that. If you have cancer, your cancer cells are screened for relevant mutations already. And for preventative cancer screening, I am very sceptictical since it is highly unlikely you will test exactly that cell/tissue that has a driving mutation that is known to likely cause cancer.Chicken Little wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:10 am As far as genetic testing, Illumina just repatriated Grail, and they may very well have a test that everybody on here will get every year?
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Re: Ark Funds
Cell-free nucleic acids as kind of an early, pan-cancer detection, but don’t take my word for it...TheoLeo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:34 pmTo test for what? If there are signs for congenital disease, people already get tested for that. If you have cancer, your cancer cells are screened for relevant mutations already. And for preventative cancer screening, I am very sceptictical since it is highly unlikely you will test exactly that cell/tissue that has a driving mutation that is known to likely cause cancer.Chicken Little wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:10 am As far as genetic testing, Illumina just repatriated Grail, and they may very well have a test that everybody on here will get every year?
https://grail.com/science/
https://medcitynews.com/2020/09/illumin ... il-for-8b/