vineviz wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:40 am
Munir wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:06 am
Am I reading this right? Are some posters trashing Taylor Larimore on the Boglehead Forum? Give me a break! You may disagree with some of his views but we usually treat Taylor with sensitivity and respect for the numerous services he has performed for many members of this forum- including me. Maybe I am misinterpreting some of the language I see.
It’s always hard to read motivation in someone’s posted words.
I have an immense respect for Taylor and his contributions to investors over the many years I’ve been reading his posts, but he’s not immune to the same sorts of cognitive and behavioral errors that all investors are prone to. And this thread exemplifies many of those.
When Bogle was wrong about something, we say so kindly. Taylor has earned the same level of respect, IMHO.
My advice to investors has been about the same since I started posting here. Pretty much it is hold a simpler portfolio of the "Total" Stock and Bond index funds if you don't believe the academic research and Small/Value tilt your portfolios if you do believe the research. I have consistently said that if you tilt, don't overdo it. The reality is that my tilts are relatively mild.
There used to be a truce here where each side could argue their case, we had spirited and fun discussions here. It wasn't just over Small/Value tilting vs. Three Fund, there were the dividend threads, the Value threads, the US vs International threads, the REIT threads, the TIPS threads, the commodities threads. This truce lasted until a well known poster started discussing Alternative investments and then the tone here changed. It has been less fun since but I have chosen to continue posting.
As far as Taylor, I have great respect for what he has done here and no one disputes that. But there is a thing called overdoing it.
We had an extended period of time where the S&P 500 and the Total Stock Market Index were flat to down, from about March of 2000 through early 2013. No one here was saying that the 3 funders were fools for sticking to their discipline, markets are like that. The US Stock Market has experienced long secular bear markets during its history, from 1929 through about 1948, from 1968 through 1984, and from 2000 through 2012. No one here is saying that because of those long secular bear markets that we should not invest in stocks.
If you post here, you will get feedback and sometimes criticism. I thought Larry Swedroe's views on a few things were overdone. I have teased Rick Ferri about running away from Small Value. The only one who is almost unassailable here is Bill Bernstein, his work is so very good and is almost timeless. His early work still holds up very well. Even Mr. Bogle has been mildly critiqued here.
My own views haven't really changed. What has shifted is that I don't advocate for new investors to factor tilt. There is a lot of nuance to this discussion and it gets to be confusing and overwhelming for somebody new. In fact, I recently discussed the 3 fund portfolio with a family member who was getting enthusiastic about the stock market.
I am maintaining my tilts mainly because I am getting alarmed about what I see as a buying panic in the High Tech/Internet part of the market. There is more concentration at the top than I like to see. I have seen this movie before, while I am not predicting doom, just saying that market leadership does change and the Large Cap Growth/High Tech-Internet/FAANG stocks trend won't last forever.
A fool and his money are good for business.