Can we talk about the future of oil?

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DoubleR
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by DoubleR »

Cutting down several hundred acres of land to put up solar panels is destroying it in my mind. Areas without crops or trees like the desert I can see Solar going up there.
Around here....they cut down trees. I have 2 within 10 miles of my house that took up 1,500-1,700 acres of farms and timberland to make 150mw's. You can make way more power than that on 10acres or less for a Natural Gas plant and do it day and night 24/7.


I just know from actually seeing the grid what solar does right now and I'm telling you.....it isn't much.

Utilties love solar and wind because its free fuel and you dont need many employees....its a win/win for them. Im sure Solar will get better and better.
texasfight
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by texasfight »

solar on every house rooftop, improved battery storage or pumping of water uphill with excess power, and natural gas peaker plants + hydro for sun don't shine and wind don't blow. This the way.
AZAttorney11
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by AZAttorney11 »

DoubleR wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:44 pmUtilties love solar and wind because its free fuel and you dont need many employees....its a win/win for them. Im sure Solar will get better and better.
That's not even remotely accurate.
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SmileyFace
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by SmileyFace »

Oil is here to stay for the foreseeable future (our lifetimes).
DoubleR
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by DoubleR »

AZAttorney11 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:11 pm
DoubleR wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:44 pmUtilties love solar and wind because its free fuel and you dont need many employees....its a win/win for them. Im sure Solar will get better and better.
That's not even remotely accurate.
Which part is not accurate?
Last edited by DoubleR on Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DoubleR
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by DoubleR »

texasfight wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:03 pm solar on every house rooftop, improved battery storage or pumping of water uphill with excess power, and natural gas peaker plants + hydro for sun don't shine and wind don't blow. This the way.
I agree with that....the simple cycle gas plants will be needed at night and higher demand days. Once the battery storage gets better it will be a real game changer.
zmit
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by zmit »

Where will the E in EV come from?
unclescrooge wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:30 pm EV will reduce the demand for oil.

Technology will increase the proven reserves of existing fields and thus the supply.

I think the long term trend for oil prices is not up.
brad.clarkston
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by brad.clarkston »

texasfight wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:03 pm solar on every house rooftop, improved battery storage or pumping of water uphill with excess power, and natural gas peaker plants + hydro for sun don't shine and wind don't blow. This the way.
Us rednecks have known how to pump water uphill without power for along time (ram pump 1770's).
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ray.james
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by ray.james »

zmit wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:35 pm Where will the E in EV come from?
unclescrooge wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:30 pm EV will reduce the demand for oil.

Technology will increase the proven reserves of existing fields and thus the supply.

I think the long term trend for oil prices is not up.
viewtopic.php?p=5461332#p5461332
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
inbox788
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by inbox788 »

texasfight wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:43 am global crude demand will peak around 2030-2035 IMO. Eventually crude will get priced out of use by electric cars running off natural gas and solar. We are running out of cheap oil, US has one more drilling boom left when the massive production declines and loss of capital investment set us up for a major shortage in 2-4 years.
I think eventually will take a while longer than 2030 and won't taper off quickly. If I told you that in 2030, half the new cars sold are electric, is that likely or unlikely?

https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Marke ... 71461.html

In either case, the reality is that even if it achieves that, which may be dubious, depending on how quickly it ramps to that rate, the reality is that 90% of the road would still be burning oil based fuel. Things will have to cross a tipping point before cars begin to accelerate reductions in oil consumption.

https://www.eei.org/resourcesandmedia/n ... Roads.aspx

Just look how long it took (and still taking) CFL and LED lights to changeover.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49591143

Demand for other oil based products has only began to peak IMO, and whatever is saved from gasoline will find its way to other users and uses.
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unclescrooge
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by unclescrooge »

zmit wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:35 pm Where will the E in EV come from?
unclescrooge wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:30 pm EV will reduce the demand for oil.

Technology will increase the proven reserves of existing fields and thus the supply.

I think the long term trend for oil prices is not up.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... olar-panel
Housedoc
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by Housedoc »

Working in information systems world I remember stories that paper checks were going to be obsolete by 1980. They are still here. Oil and Nat gas will be around past my lifetime. I have no fear investing in oil and gas with the understanding it will be depressed for a time.
000
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by 000 »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:02 am Since you can still farm under solar panels and wind turbines, you haven't even "used" the land.
I seem to recall plants need sunlight to grow :oops:
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SteelyEyed
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by SteelyEyed »

To make this personal: my understanding that propane is a byproduct of the production of more useful things. If oil demand really does decrease and level off and fracking adjusts oil supply quickly, where does this leave propane and its price? I don't want to know what it would cost to run a natural gas line out to my place.
frugalecon
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by frugalecon »

texasfight wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:03 pm solar on every house rooftop, improved battery storage or pumping of water uphill with excess power, and natural gas peaker plants + hydro for sun don't shine and wind don't blow. This the way.
Back when I used to fly places, I always liked to look out at the rooftops of the giant warehouses near ORD, IAD, IAH etc. to see how many were covered with solar panels. I really never saw any. It seems like we will know rooftop solar has really arrived when large expanses like that are covered.
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Frugalbear
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by Frugalbear »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:30 am
Frugalbear wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:17 pm Met a friend tonight for drinks and we were discussing oil stocks, Where it was, Where it is, and where it's going.


What are your thoughts?
what were your thought after last night's conversation?

what are your thoughts after reading all these comments?

do you tend to invest in sectors rather than the whole market? If so, why? Do you like taking sector risk which you can avoid by owning the whole market? If so, why?

Do you like taking stock risk (individual oil stocks) which you can avoid by owning the whole market? If so, why?

Do you think you know anything anyone else doesn't already know (i.e., can you outsmart the market?)?
Cycling Duo came the closest to what our conclusions were. As you can just turn the switch off on oil. Have we gotten better from a technological standpoint from harvesting oil, refining, and even the additives absolutely. So as we become more efficient and effective it creates a surplus. Covid helped all of this for sure.

Personally I own the whole market VTSAX and VOO...owning individual stocks is too overwhelming for me. However, I have thought about dabbling in XLE etf. I may do that from a sector standpoint, but to date I have not.

If there is anything I know its that I know nothing.
Dominic
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by Dominic »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:55 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:02 am Since you can still farm under solar panels and wind turbines, you haven't even "used" the land.
I seem to recall plants need sunlight to grow :oops:
They have limited photosynthesis capacity. Past a certain point, more light doesn't help. As a result, agrivoltaics work.
000
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by 000 »

Dominic wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:07 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:55 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:02 am Since you can still farm under solar panels and wind turbines, you haven't even "used" the land.
I seem to recall plants need sunlight to grow :oops:
They have limited photosynthesis capacity. Past a certain point, more light doesn't help. As a result, agrivoltaics work.
Sure. Next question: how much productivity loss occurs? It seems like it would be hard to run a harvester with obstacles everywhere...
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dmcmahon
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by dmcmahon »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:55 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:02 am Since you can still farm under solar panels and wind turbines, you haven't even "used" the land.
I seem to recall plants need sunlight to grow :oops:
That, and a lot of wind turbines are being constructed on once-pristine ridges and coastlines. You have to cover enormous areas just to get modest amounts of unreliable power. People also neglect the vast amounts of concrete and steel needed to build them, or that the blades are made of non-recyclable composites that are made from oil and are going to end up in land fills. At least with solar you can put it up over existing structures, though you still have an ewaste problem at the end of the life cycle. And it’s intermittency is more predictable.

Oil for long distance transport is going to be hard to beat. Shipping is extremely efficient today and I don’t see electric making inroads there. For aviation it’s even more dubious given the orders of magnitude energy density difference between chemical combustion fuels and batteries. Ground transport by train is also very efficient although it’s easier to imagine electrification. Finally everyone seems to forget that you cannot make “stuff” out of electricity - chemicals, plastics, paints, fertilizers, and endless other products require feedstocks; one can imagine substituting other fossil resources (e.g. coal), but plant based feedstocks will have their own environmental downsides.
gougou
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by gougou »

Oil is needed for cars, airplanes, ships, rockets. There is no replacement to it.

Oil costs a lot of capital investment to produce, so oil price will eventually recover for those capital investments to generate a reasonable rate of return.
inbox788
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by inbox788 »

gougou wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:25 am Oil is needed for cars, airplanes, ships, rockets. There is no replacement to it.

Oil costs a lot of capital investment to produce, so oil price will eventually recover for those capital investments to generate a reasonable rate of return.
Well, if we ran out of oil tomorrow, seems like there are some viable alternatives as far as fuel is concerned. There are still countless parts that may depend on oil, which may need alternatives like lubricants and plastics, but I'm pretty sure we'd figure a way out.

We'd be more tied to charging stations, and delivering fuel would be a bit more difficult, but the vast amount of driving can be done without oil. And hydrogen fuel might work for long range away from charging stations, especially if there were no better alternative.
https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Why We Still Can't Deliver on the Promise of Hydrogen Cars
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/33408/why ... rogen-cars

As far as rockets, does LOX require oil? Seems to me there are already some non-oil based propellants, and some rockets launched without oil fuels.
http://www.braeunig.us/space/propel.htm

SpaceX Uses A Different Rocket Fuel From Anyone Else — That Could Be A Problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjbIRi7FzyU

And for airplanes, hydrogen might work, or at least some folks trying to make it work. And some folk are also working on using battery storage. These still are very early proof of concept stage.

Eighty years after Hindenburg, startup pitches hydrogen flight
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/sm ... 775758.cms

FLY ELECTRIC THE AIRCRAFT OF THE FUTURE TAKES FLIGHT
https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/t ... light/208/

I don't know how popular or cost effective short range electric boats have become, but as batteries get better and cheaper, their ranges and competitiveness will improve. Now long range trans-oceanic ships will take a while to find an alternative, unless nuclear power can become practical. Is hydrogen a viable choice? Any other potential competitive fuels? Solar panels? Wind turbines? I don't think so. But in a pinch, we could always go back to sail on boats.

https://transportemaritimoglobal.files. ... npaper.pdf

https://theweek.com/articles/825647/why ... seas-again
Valuethinker
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Post by Valuethinker »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:55 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:02 am Since you can still farm under solar panels and wind turbines, you haven't even "used" the land.
I seem to recall plants need sunlight to grow :oops:
The solar farms I have seen have long strips between the panels which are tilted.

Last I checked the sun is not directly overhead at 51 degree N?

Continental USA is all above 23 degrees N, last I checked?

Thus the panels are *tilted*? :wink:
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Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

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