Bear Cub Smells Bubble

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anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:41 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Thanks for posting. I'm worried things may not end well with this strategy. Have you thought about a conservative balanced fund or maybe the permanent portfolio?
Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
csantiago
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by csantiago »

The Fed doesn’t care about any of us. Why is there such irrational faith in their benevolence and protection? They will do what needs to be done for a certain class of people, and bollocks to the rest.
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

csantiago wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:05 pm The Fed doesn’t care about any of us. Why is there such irrational faith in their benevolence and protection? They will do what needs to be done for a certain class of people, and bollocks to the rest.
They care about the banking system and keeping that going requires asset prices to stay elevated. The next two bullets they will fire are yield curve control and buying equities outright.

They are already buying stocks indirectly right now by buying bonds of companies that use the money raised to buy back their stock, which is what creates a "winner takes it all" environment. If a company has brand cachet and good cashflow & credit ratings, the stock will vastly outperform the market just because of this. The day the banks announce they are going to restart buybacks will be the day to pounce on them!
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

FireProof wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:50 pm Contrary to your post, everyone I meet is saying stocks are clearly overvalued, so maybe they are OK.
Thanks for the data point.
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
I understand that, but why not build a portfolio of 10 - 20 stocks diversified across industry and style (growth/value) instead of a few high flying tech stocks?
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:16 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
I understand that, but why not build a portfolio of 10 - 20 stocks diversified across industry and style (growth/value) instead of a few high flying tech stocks?
We can see the pattern clearly that it's a few stocks moving the market. Why not take advantage of that? The only thing that changes that:
- Company fails to execute. (How likely is that given their history and no leadership change?)
- Fed says it's time to stop playing. (Interest rate hike which is probably not happening in my lifetime, or a reduction in the balance sheet probably not happening till we get to full employment).

Right now we are waiting for big fiscal stimulus from congress. Where do you think all that money is gonna go?
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:23 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:16 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
I understand that, but why not build a portfolio of 10 - 20 stocks diversified across industry and style (growth/value) instead of a few high flying tech stocks?
We can see the pattern clearly that it's a few stocks moving the market. Why not take advantage of that? The only thing that changes that:
- Company fails to execute. (How likely is that given their history and no leadership change?)
- Fed says it's time to stop playing. (Interest rate hike which is probably not happening in my lifetime, or a reduction in the balance sheet probably not happening till we get to full employment).

Right now we are waiting for big fiscal stimulus from congress. Where do you think all that money is gonna go?
You really think there are no good buys outside of FANGMANZ?
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:28 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:23 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:16 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
I understand that, but why not build a portfolio of 10 - 20 stocks diversified across industry and style (growth/value) instead of a few high flying tech stocks?
We can see the pattern clearly that it's a few stocks moving the market. Why not take advantage of that? The only thing that changes that:
- Company fails to execute. (How likely is that given their history and no leadership change?)
- Fed says it's time to stop playing. (Interest rate hike which is probably not happening in my lifetime, or a reduction in the balance sheet probably not happening till we get to full employment).

Right now we are waiting for big fiscal stimulus from congress. Where do you think all that money is gonna go?
You really think there are no good buys outside of FANGMANZ?
BLK is going to do absolutely amazing as well.

I understand the business of most of the FANGMAN, how hard it is to displace them, and how a few of them control congress (rather than the other way round). Will this dominance continue forever? No way. But at this point, they are the best bet.

ZM will do OK as long as the pandemic and its effects go on and I see that continuing for at least another year based on what companies are doing with respect to work-from-home.

Did you have any in mind?
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm BLK is going to do absolutely amazing as well.
Why? What about their business isn't priced in?
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm I understand the business of most of the FANGMAN, how hard it is to displace them, and how a few of them control congress (rather than the other way round). Will this dominance continue forever? No way. But at this point, they are the best bet.
What are they really "dominating", other than the stock market? They don't provide power to my home, food I need to eat, healthcare I may need, the hardware/software I use for work, or any of the raw materials/goods that are used to create everything else.
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm ZM will do OK as long as the pandemic and its effects go on and I see that continuing for at least another year based on what companies are doing with respect to work-from-home.
What about MSFT Teams and other solutions? What about the risk of ZM being banned?
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm Did you have any in mind?
Not any individual tickers, but don't you think some of the players in Consumer discretionary, Consumer staples, Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, Materials, Real estate, or Utilities are worth owning?
marcopolo
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by marcopolo »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:41 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Thanks for posting. I'm worried things may not end well with this strategy. Have you thought about a conservative balanced fund or maybe the permanent portfolio?
Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
Could you explain (if you don't mind) what ethical principle you are concerned about when investing in broader indexes that you think you are avoiding by investing in "FANGMANZ"?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:49 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm BLK is going to do absolutely amazing as well.
Why? What about their business isn't priced in?
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm I understand the business of most of the FANGMAN, how hard it is to displace them, and how a few of them control congress (rather than the other way round). Will this dominance continue forever? No way. But at this point, they are the best bet.
What are they really "dominating", other than the stock market? They don't provide power to my home, food I need to eat, healthcare I may need, the hardware/software I use for work, or any of the raw materials/goods that are used to create everything else.
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm ZM will do OK as long as the pandemic and its effects go on and I see that continuing for at least another year based on what companies are doing with respect to work-from-home.
What about MSFT Teams and other solutions? What about the risk of ZM being banned?
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:36 pm Did you have any in mind?
Not any individual tickers, but don't you think some of the players in Consumer discretionary, Consumer staples, Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, Materials, Real estate, or Utilities are worth owning?
You guys are keeping me busy. :)

BLK is going to continue benefiting from the fed's policies.

A lot of people depend on FANGMAN for their livelihood from video bloggers to small businesses. A lot of the companies that sit between you and your food, shelter/utilities, clothing, healthcare depend on FANGMAN for their logistics to bring them to you.

ZM getting banned could be an issue, but they are pervasive enough in the corporate world and it's a US company so very unlikely to happen. It is not easy for anyone else to replicate that technology. Teams may get there eventually, but right now it's nowhere to be seen. ZM is also forging a number of strategic partnerships. Their founder/CEO came from Webex so I would think he knows how to run a video conferencing business.

I haven't researched all the sectors you mention and picking an individual company there would be hard for me because I don't understand those businesses.
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:11 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:41 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Thanks for posting. I'm worried things may not end well with this strategy. Have you thought about a conservative balanced fund or maybe the permanent portfolio?
Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
Could you explain (if you don't mind) what ethical principle you are concerned about when investing in broader indexes that you think you are avoiding by investing in "FANGMANZ"?
Look up VEGN, for example, but ESG in general.
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:37 pm A lot of the companies that sit between you and your food, shelter/utilities, clothing, healthcare depend on FANGMAN for their logistics to bring them to you.
None of those providers depend on Facebook, Apple, Netflix, or Nvidia to get their products/services to me. There is a stronger case for Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, e.g. their cloud offerings, but I'm not sure my local grocery stores, utility company, or telecom really need them.
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:37 pm I haven't researched all the sectors you mention and picking an individual company there would be hard for me because I don't understand those businesses.
IMO this line of thinking may lead you down the path of the value investors, e.g. not investing in Tech because they didn't understand it...
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Stinky
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by Stinky »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:55 pm
Economic analysis is meaningless. DNFTF.
DNFTF? What does that stand for?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
Explorer
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by Explorer »

Stinky wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:34 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:55 pm
Economic analysis is meaningless. DNFTF.
DNFTF? What does that stand for?
Do Not Fight The Fed
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Stinky
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by Stinky »

Explorer wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:46 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:34 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:55 pm
Economic analysis is meaningless. DNFTF.
DNFTF? What does that stand for?
Do Not Fight The Fed
Amen to that!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:48 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:37 pm A lot of the companies that sit between you and your food, shelter/utilities, clothing, healthcare depend on FANGMAN for their logistics to bring them to you.
None of those providers depend on Facebook, Apple, Netflix, or Nvidia to get their products/services to me. There is a stronger case for Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, e.g. their cloud offerings, but I'm not sure my local grocery stores, utility company, or telecom really need them.
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:37 pm I haven't researched all the sectors you mention and picking an individual company there would be hard for me because I don't understand those businesses.
IMO this line of thinking may lead you down the path of the value investors, e.g. not investing in Tech because they didn't understand it...
Valid points.
Alchemist
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by Alchemist »

I have to admit a bit of discomfort with current valuations, but with so many people screaming bubble it is kind of a counter-indicator of an actual bubble.

Then again if there is a quick recovery in the economy post-vaccine, all those companies across the the rest of the market still down 20% or more will see their own recovery pushing the market even higher while at the same time lowering P/E's as earnings recover with rapid GDP growth.
minimalistmarc
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by minimalistmarc »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:41 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Thanks for posting. I'm worried things may not end well with this strategy. Have you thought about a conservative balanced fund or maybe the permanent portfolio?
Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
Sorry to see you haven’t learned anything in the decade of bull run sat in cash, missing out on lots of gains. What makes you think you are now able to pick stocks? What do you think the chances are that you are suddenly going to jump from a wrong strategy to a correct strategy?
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

Alchemist wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:51 am I have to admit a bit of discomfort with current valuations, but with so many people screaming bubble it is kind of a counter-indicator of an actual bubble.
Not really - there was plenty of people saying the same thing years before and up to the dot com crash. No way of using that as an indicator of a bubble, but saying we are not likely in a bubble because there's a lot of opinions we are doesn't work either.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
columbia
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by columbia »

burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:35 am
U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
Do some think that's actionable? If so, in what way?
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

columbia wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:49 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:35 am
U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
Do some think that's actionable? If so, in what way?
I don't think it is, but it's interesting.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
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PicassoSparks
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by PicassoSparks »

This thread is fascinating. Thank you all for your wise words and/or bold entry into the list of future case studies.

For people getting into tech stocks now, I’m very curious about your thesis. I’ll use Apple, the only one of these companies that I really understand, as an illustration.

For years, Apple traded at something like 15x PE ratio. Analysts did not think that the company could continue to produce new hits, the death of Steve Jobs was thought to be the end of creativity at the company etc. Etc.

Over time, Wall Street has slowly updated its expectations. With the rise of services income (which Wall Street understands better than product development) they have become more comfortable with Apple’s future and the PE ratio has grown along with the earnings. Which means Apple’s stock has grown very fast indeed.

Still, as recently as April, Apple was trading at around 22 PE. This was high but in line with the broad S&P 500 PE which is also high. It was much lower than the QQQ PE which was closer to 27 or so at the same time. In other words, Apple was trading as a normal large cap stock, not as a tech stock which tend to have higher growth expectations.

And then the most recent earnings happened and Apple’s good results led to a sudden jump in value. Today the stock is trading at 38 PE. So in a very short period of time, investors have priced in much MUCH higher expectations about Apple’s future earnings (remember, in the long run what we are buying when we buy a piece of a company is its discounted future earnings).

So, for you who have sat out on the tech stocks until today but are buying in to Apple now with the expectation that they’ll continue to grow, what you are betting on is that Apple will not only meet but beat the extremely high expectations about its future that are already priced into the stock. Why do you think that the market has under priced Apple’s growth at this stage?

I’ll be honest, this seems unlikely to me. I think Apple has a bright future but I do not think its future is so bright that it’s going to surprise an already extremely optimistic marketplace.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by TheTimeLord »

burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:35 am
U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
You mean Technology has been thriving and growing since 2007 and traditional manufacturing and industrials haven't, let me find my stunned face. Coming soon a comparison of Technology versus Energy in the U.S. using a similar period.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
BogleFan510
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by BogleFan510 »

[removed] a bit off topic
Last edited by BogleFan510 on Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:01 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:35 am
U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
You mean Technology has been thriving and growing since 2007 and traditional manufacturing and industrials haven't, let me find my stunned face. Coming soon a comparison of Technology versus Energy in the U.S. using a similar period.
You would have been equally under-stunned by a similar comparison in the 1995-2000 time frame. 8-)

Europe and international may be under-weight in tech compared to the U.S. but that doesn't mean their devoid of tech.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by TheTimeLord »

burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:17 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:01 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:35 am
U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
You mean Technology has been thriving and growing since 2007 and traditional manufacturing and industrials haven't, let me find my stunned face. Coming soon a comparison of Technology versus Energy in the U.S. using a similar period.
You would have been equally under-stunned by a similar comparison in the 1995-2000 time frame. 8-)

Europe and international may be under-weight in tech compared to the U.S. but that doesn't mean their devoid of tech.
Don't lump Europe with Asia. Plenty of Tech in Asia.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:23 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:17 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:01 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:35 am
U.S. tech stocks were now more valuable by market cap than the entire European market, according to Bank of America.

The European market was four times larger than U.S. tech in 2007, according to the note.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
You mean Technology has been thriving and growing since 2007 and traditional manufacturing and industrials haven't, let me find my stunned face. Coming soon a comparison of Technology versus Energy in the U.S. using a similar period.
You would have been equally under-stunned by a similar comparison in the 1995-2000 time frame. 8-)

Europe and international may be under-weight in tech compared to the U.S. but that doesn't mean their devoid of tech.
Don't lump Europe with Asia. Plenty of Tech in Asia.
Let me find my stunned face.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by TheTimeLord »

burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:31 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:23 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:17 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:01 am
You mean Technology has been thriving and growing since 2007 and traditional manufacturing and industrials haven't, let me find my stunned face. Coming soon a comparison of Technology versus Energy in the U.S. using a similar period.
You would have been equally under-stunned by a similar comparison in the 1995-2000 time frame. 8-)

Europe and international may be under-weight in tech compared to the U.S. but that doesn't mean their devoid of tech.
Don't lump Europe with Asia. Plenty of Tech in Asia.
Let me find my stunned face.
Just providing clarification since you were beginning to conflate Europe with International.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Escapevelocity
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by Escapevelocity »

PicassoSparks wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:53 am This thread is fascinating. Thank you all for your wise words and/or bold entry into the list of future case studies.

For people getting into tech stocks now, I’m very curious about your thesis. I’ll use Apple, the only one of these companies that I really understand, as an illustration.

For years, Apple traded at something like 15x PE ratio. Analysts did not think that the company could continue to produce new hits, the death of Steve Jobs was thought to be the end of creativity at the company etc. Etc.

Over time, Wall Street has slowly updated its expectations. With the rise of services income (which Wall Street understands better than product development) they have become more comfortable with Apple’s future and the PE ratio has grown along with the earnings. Which means Apple’s stock has grown very fast indeed.

Still, as recently as April, Apple was trading at around 22 PE. This was high but in line with the broad S&P 500 PE which is also high. It was much lower than the QQQ PE which was closer to 27 or so at the same time. In other words, Apple was trading as a normal large cap stock, not as a tech stock which tend to have higher growth expectations.

And then the most recent earnings happened and Apple’s good results led to a sudden jump in value. Today the stock is trading at 38 PE. So in a very short period of time, investors have priced in much MUCH higher expectations about Apple’s future earnings (remember, in the long run what we are buying when we buy a piece of a company is its discounted future earnings).

So, for you who have sat out on the tech stocks until today but are buying in to Apple now with the expectation that they’ll continue to grow, what you are betting on is that Apple will not only meet but beat the extremely high expectations about its future that are already priced into the stock. Why do you think that the market has under priced Apple’s growth at this stage?

I’ll be honest, this seems unlikely to me. I think Apple has a bright future but I do not think its future is so bright that it’s going to surprise an already extremely optimistic marketplace.
There is another way to think about this although I tend to agree with your assessment. Stock prices are essentially a discounted present value of future cash flows right? The quality and dependability of those cash flows are relatively much higher for Apple than for most other stocks. Also and this is the key, with the the 30 year treasury bond at 1.5% and the 10 year below 1% when you discount those future “reliable” cash flows at a very low interest rate that is considered to be a structurally low rate into the future then you can arrive at a thesis for paying a PE of 40 for Apple.
texasfight
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by texasfight »

Let me tell you how much Apple is worth with a positive earnings yield at negative 30 yr real yields. Infinity.

If a portfolio of US stocks and treasury bonds fails to keep going up and to the right from here on out, the US undergoes a sovereign default. Period. Luke Gromen is a great resource on this. https://twitter.com/LukeGromen

There is the possibility that the Fed cannot stop a relentless dollar rise (lots of discussion on fintwit debating if the Fed is actually monetizing the debt - i won't get into this cause of forum rules). If you want the most in depth discussion of the Fed, primary dealer, reserves, etc. process you should check out Brent at Santiago Capital discussion with Lyn Alden and Travis K.

Brent is betting on the most violent dollar short squeeze in history, and that unless the Fed changes policy, they will be unable to fight it with current tools.

https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund?ref_ ... r%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/coloradotravis
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:45 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:31 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:23 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:17 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:01 am

You mean Technology has been thriving and growing since 2007 and traditional manufacturing and industrials haven't, let me find my stunned face. Coming soon a comparison of Technology versus Energy in the U.S. using a similar period.
You would have been equally under-stunned by a similar comparison in the 1995-2000 time frame. 8-)

Europe and international may be under-weight in tech compared to the U.S. but that doesn't mean their devoid of tech.
Don't lump Europe with Asia. Plenty of Tech in Asia.
Let me find my stunned face.
Just providing clarification since you were beginning to conflate Europe with International.
And you are conflating U.S. tech market cap with Asia tech market cap?

https://medium.com/technicity/four-larg ... 686db99bfd
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by TheTimeLord »

burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:51 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:45 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:31 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:23 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:17 am
You would have been equally under-stunned by a similar comparison in the 1995-2000 time frame. 8-)

Europe and international may be under-weight in tech compared to the U.S. but that doesn't mean their devoid of tech.
Don't lump Europe with Asia. Plenty of Tech in Asia.
Let me find my stunned face.
Just providing clarification since you were beginning to conflate Europe with International.
And you are conflating U.S. tech market cap with Asia tech market cap?

https://medium.com/technicity/four-larg ... 686db99bfd
No, I was responding to you statement about me implying Europe and International were devoid of Tech by separating out and Asia and making a clear distinction with Europe.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:56 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:51 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:45 am
burritoLover wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:31 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:23 am

Don't lump Europe with Asia. Plenty of Tech in Asia.
Let me find my stunned face.
Just providing clarification since you were beginning to conflate Europe with International.
And you are conflating U.S. tech market cap with Asia tech market cap?

https://medium.com/technicity/four-larg ... 686db99bfd
No, I was responding to you statement about me implying Europe and International were devoid of Tech by separating out and Asia and making a clear distinction with Europe.
One can only assume since you implied the comparison was as obvious as U.S. tech vs. energy over the same period.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
bck63
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by bck63 »

rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:41 am
DonIce wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:31 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:15 am TSLA isn't a tech stock.

I quit reading after that
Of course it is. "Tech" is more than just the companies that serve you ads.
It makes cars. I'm not interested in debating it further.
Tesla isn't a tech company. And it's not a car company. It's creating a whole new industry that we can't full understand right now.

In 100 years, humans will think of the phrase "electric car" the way we now think of the phrase "horseless carriage" -- a quaint way of explaining something that was way ahead of its time and difficult to describe within the confines of contemporary culture.

Tesla is a transportation company, a power storage company, a navigation systems company, an energy company, and oh yes, it sells cars.

Tesla is undervalued. It will lead us out of the fossil fuel age into a whole new era.
burritoLover
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by burritoLover »

bck63 wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:11 am Tesla isn't a tech company. And it's not a car company. It's creating a whole new industry that we can't full understand right now.

In 100 years, humans will think of the phrase "electric car" the way we now think of the phrase "horseless carriage" -- a quaint way of explaining something that was way ahead of its time and difficult to describe within the confines of contemporary culture.

Tesla is a transportation company, a power storage company, a navigation systems company, an energy company, and oh yes, it sells cars.

Tesla is undervalued. It will lead us out of the fossil fuel age into a whole new era.
Don't mistake a company having a competitive edge at the beginning of a technological shift as something that can be sustained forever and translates into a good long-term investment. There's this thing called competitors and they don't just sit around on the sidelines watching one company make a killing (which Tesla isn't actually doing right now to begin with - profit-wise anyway). There's Numerous examples of singular companies that were absolutely dominant at the start of technological revolution that eventually went belly-up.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
finite_difference
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by finite_difference »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:15 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:43 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:08 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:18 pm

I don't know but to me it looks like you think the probability of a crash is 50%, which is far from "almost certain".
I can't quite understand what you are trying to say.
You said recently that you got out of the market in Feb 2008 and never got back in.

You also seem to be predicting some astronomical growth in the next couple years (Apple at $10T). Texasfight who thinks you "get it" seems to be saying you better get on this ride up. You seem content to sit on the side line, presumably waiting for the crash you believe is just around the corner. It seems you have been waiting for that for some time. I am sure you will eventually be right. The tough question is will that make up for all the lost opportunity along the way.
Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Well, in that case I have to agree with HomerJ on this one.
It makes me worry that a crash is coming soon.

You have been out of the market since 2008 waiting for the crash to get back in, now recently with market at all time highs you decide it is time to get back in. I believe the word for that is "capitulation".

You have been wrong about the markets for over a decade, but now believe you can not only predict the direction of the market, but also select the specific stocks that will out perform. I believe the word for that is "hubris".

Good luck to you, hope your trades work out.
Some may call it hubris. I like to think of it as having faith in the fed. It comes from a place of humility knowing the fed always has my back so I safely play.
“The Fed always has my back so I can safely play.”

You might want to read up more on what the Fed’s actual role is. Hint: it’s not to always have your back. And that’s a good thing.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
finite_difference
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by finite_difference »

anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:41 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Thanks for posting. I'm worried things may not end well with this strategy. Have you thought about a conservative balanced fund or maybe the permanent portfolio?
Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
There are socially responsible index funds. Alternatively, you can take some of the proceeds you earn from a total stock market index fund, and use it to lobby for the causes you care about, e.g. fighting against child labor, etc.

I take issue with you labeling those of us who use index funds as “greedy.” All companies need to be better for the world to be better.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
anoop
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by anoop »

finite_difference wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:13 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:58 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:41 pm
anoop wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:24 pm Glad you are keeping track. :)

I have changed my stance and I'm getting into the market.

I have bought AAPL, FB, ZM and together they have already made me more than my INTC holdings from 2015 (which I have liquidated because of the 7 nm fiasco, so much for a forever stock). My plan right now is to load up slowly on selections from FANGMANZ. This is for taxable. I don't think I will ever get to more than 50%. I'm not looking for a home run, so if they appreciate enough (e.g. say 30-40%), I may start to liquidate, wait for a correction and then get back in again. I figure might as well play a little bit. Some might find it stressful, but I am enjoying it. If you want to know all my trades as they happen, I'd be happy to post. Almost ANY trade now will beat the 0.01% that SPAXX is yielding.

I'm still conflicted about ethics and morals of investing in certain companies in mutual funds (index or not, and those are my only options in the 401k), but I am working on that aspect of myself as well. Basically, when it boils down to life and death, things tend to play out like in Life of Pi, so maybe it's OK to dump ethics and morals when it comes to making money.
Thanks for posting. I'm worried things may not end well with this strategy. Have you thought about a conservative balanced fund or maybe the permanent portfolio?
Like I mentioned, it's the ethics of investing in companies that I don't like. I'm working on myself and maybe at some point my greed will overcome the desire for ethical investing.
There are socially responsible index funds. Alternatively, you can take some of the proceeds you earn from a total stock market index fund, and use it to lobby for the causes you care about, e.g. fighting against child labor, etc.

I take issue with you labeling those of us who use index funds as “greedy.” All companies need to be better for the world to be better.
Where did you see I label you or anyone else? Your life is yours. You choose your path. We all have different compasses. The only person I'm working with is myself.
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Orbuculum Nongata
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by Orbuculum Nongata »

finite_difference wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:13 pm All companies need to be better for the world to be better.
I am not sure I understand this. Can you take a minute to elaborate? Thank you.
Potential - distraction = performance.
finite_difference
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by finite_difference »

Presintense wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:00 pm
finite_difference wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:13 pm All companies need to be better for the world to be better.
I am not sure I understand this. Can you take a minute to elaborate? Thank you.
If one company betters itself, for example eliminates child labor, out of a thousand companies, it helps make the world better but the impact is limited. If entire sectors or industries better themselves, for example if they all pledge to eliminate child labor, then the impact is multiplied many times over.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

Alchemist wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:51 am I have to admit a bit of discomfort with current valuations, but with so many people screaming bubble it is kind of a counter-indicator of an actual bubble.

Then again if there is a quick recovery in the economy post-vaccine, all those companies across the the rest of the market still down 20% or more will see their own recovery pushing the market even higher while at the same time lowering P/E's as earnings recover with rapid GDP growth.
Yes, there is still some resistance from bears and stay-the-coursers.

Of course there were people screaming bubble before the dot com crash, too. Jack Bogle openly told stock investors to temper their expectations.
rascott
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by rascott »

bck63 wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:11 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:41 am
DonIce wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:31 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:15 am TSLA isn't a tech stock.

I quit reading after that
Of course it is. "Tech" is more than just the companies that serve you ads.
It makes cars. I'm not interested in debating it further.
Tesla isn't a tech company. And it's not a car company. It's creating a whole new industry that we can't full understand right now.

In 100 years, humans will think of the phrase "electric car" the way we now think of the phrase "horseless carriage" -- a quaint way of explaining something that was way ahead of its time and difficult to describe within the confines of contemporary culture.

Tesla is a transportation company, a power storage company, a navigation systems company, an energy company, and oh yes, it sells cars.

Tesla is undervalued. It will lead us out of the fossil fuel age into a whole new era.


Thanks for the laugh. The cult in Tesla is strong, no doubt.
bck63
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by bck63 »

rascott wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 5:01 pm
bck63 wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:11 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:41 am
DonIce wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:31 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:15 am TSLA isn't a tech stock.

I quit reading after that
Of course it is. "Tech" is more than just the companies that serve you ads.
It makes cars. I'm not interested in debating it further.
Tesla isn't a tech company. And it's not a car company. It's creating a whole new industry that we can't full understand right now.

In 100 years, humans will think of the phrase "electric car" the way we now think of the phrase "horseless carriage" -- a quaint way of explaining something that was way ahead of its time and difficult to describe within the confines of contemporary culture.

Tesla is a transportation company, a power storage company, a navigation systems company, an energy company, and oh yes, it sells cars.

Tesla is undervalued. It will lead us out of the fossil fuel age into a whole new era.


Thanks for the laugh. The cult in Tesla is strong, no doubt.
I don't own Tesla stock. Yet. And cult? 49.2% of Tesla shares are owned by institutional investors, which is right in line with many other mainstream companies.

Suggestion: work on resolving your ignorance rather than trying to cover it up with pithy one-liners. :-) Good luck.
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nedsaid
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by nedsaid »

bck63 wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:11 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:41 am
DonIce wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:31 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:15 am TSLA isn't a tech stock.

I quit reading after that
Of course it is. "Tech" is more than just the companies that serve you ads.
It makes cars. I'm not interested in debating it further.
Tesla isn't a tech company. And it's not a car company. It's creating a whole new industry that we can't full understand right now.

In 100 years, humans will think of the phrase "electric car" the way we now think of the phrase "horseless carriage" -- a quaint way of explaining something that was way ahead of its time and difficult to describe within the confines of contemporary culture.

Tesla is a transportation company, a power storage company, a navigation systems company, an energy company, and oh yes, it sells cars.

Tesla is undervalued. It will lead us out of the fossil fuel age into a whole new era.
Sorry to disappoint sports fans. Electric cars have been around almost as long as the car itself. One of the problems is a lack of infrastructure to support and another issue is battery storage. Yet another issue is that electricity still has to be generated somewhere. Batteries don't do well in cold weather, that is another issue for the engineers to solve. Not saying electric cars can't succeed, just saying they have been around a long time and never really caught on. I also wonder how green the electric cars really are, there has to be a safe disposal and recycling of old batteries. All that said, I have read really good comments about the Tesla automobiles. I have read that there is much less for mechanics to fix. I would drive one if I could afford one, if there was a good infrastructure of charging stations, and if recharging could be done in shorter time periods. A fill-up at a gas station takes just minutes, how long does it take to recharge the battery? I would be more excited about hybrids. The obstacles aren't insurmountable and perhaps electric cars will prove superior to what we drive now but I need to be convinced. Liquified Natural Gas might be a cheaper and cleaner solution.
A fool and his money are good for business.
bck63
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by bck63 »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:08 pm
bck63 wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:11 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:41 am
DonIce wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:31 am
rascott wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:15 am TSLA isn't a tech stock.

I quit reading after that
Of course it is. "Tech" is more than just the companies that serve you ads.
It makes cars. I'm not interested in debating it further.
Tesla isn't a tech company. And it's not a car company. It's creating a whole new industry that we can't full understand right now.

In 100 years, humans will think of the phrase "electric car" the way we now think of the phrase "horseless carriage" -- a quaint way of explaining something that was way ahead of its time and difficult to describe within the confines of contemporary culture.

Tesla is a transportation company, a power storage company, a navigation systems company, an energy company, and oh yes, it sells cars.

Tesla is undervalued. It will lead us out of the fossil fuel age into a whole new era.
Sorry to disappoint sports fans. Electric cars have been around almost as long as the car itself. One of the problems is a lack of infrastructure to support and another issue is battery storage. Yet another issue is that electricity still has to be generated somewhere. Batteries don't do well in cold weather, that is another issue for the engineers to solve. Not saying electric cars can't succeed, just saying they have been around a long time and never really caught on. I also wonder how green the electric cars really are, there has to be a safe disposal and recycling of old batteries. All that said, I have read really good comments about the Tesla automobiles. I have read that there is much less for mechanics to fix. I would drive one if I could afford one, if there was a good infrastructure of charging stations, and if recharging could be done in shorter time periods. A fill-up at a gas station takes just minutes, how long does it take to recharge the battery? I would be more excited about hybrids. The obstacles aren't insurmountable and perhaps electric cars will prove superior to what we drive now but I need to be convinced. Liquified Natural Gas might be a cheaper and cleaner solution.
Interesting observations. Thank you. I think what is different now is that Teslas are now pretty much in the mainstream. A friend in northern Virginia told me they are as common there as some other mainstream brands. My wife and I were in NYC two weeks ago and I was shocked at the number of Teslas I saw. Really stunned at how many are on the road. Another friend in Seattle said they're as popular as VWs out there.

Sales tripled year over year last year and they are doing very well so far this year. The Model 3 is the best-selling EV in history. Lots of hurdles to overcome on the battery issue, but we'll see what is revealed on Battery Day. The lack of infrastructure works to Teslas favor, as other car companies will have a very tough time pivoting. Their dealers make huge money on service and that's gonna go down the tubes.

Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I haven't put my toe in the water yet but I'll make at least a proverbial bet on Tesla.
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000
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by 000 »

To keep the discussion on topic, I will note that S&P 500 owners are on the brink of buying TSLA very, very high.
hoofaman
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by hoofaman »

I view Tesla stock as something like gold or bitcoin, it’s not connected to any measure of intrinsic value, current or projected, and therefore could theoricially rise or fall to any level at anytime
bck63
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Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Post by bck63 »

000 wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:39 pm To keep the discussion on topic, I will note that S&P 500 owners are on the brink of buying TSLA very, very high.
Meh. Tesla's market cap is $400 billion. By comparison, Berkshire Hathaway's market cap is $500 billion and it only makes up 1.4% of the S&P weight.

Tesla coming into the S&P will be no big deal at all. We're talking change under the couch cushions.
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