Dan Wiener just shutdown his forum

[catdoctor]

I followed some of his recommendations and am glad I got into the Heath Care, Capital Opportunity, and Dividend Growth funds when I did.

Same with me!

[hnd]

i enjoy the anonymity of forums and as such still participate in a few but the reality is that forum use has gone down in droves and in many instances aren't used at all. Everything has moved to being managed on social media.

[Elysium]

Yeah, I didn't even know who this guy is, but after a quick glimpse at his website I can't for the life of me understand why a Boglehead would want to pay this guy for "insights." This from the website:

Our expert analysts spot hot stocks that are heating up before the crowd swoops in to bid prices higher, and our journalists sift through the noise to shine a light on trending investments -- in spaces ranging from quantum computing to marijuana stocks -- to determine whether they’re actually worth your time.

Isn't the "Hot Hands" portfolio in Madsinger's monthly report a Dan Wiener creation?

Hot Hands vs. S&P 500, timeframe
19.81% vs. 2.37%, YTD
11.07% vs. 6.55%, since 1999

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=322369&p=5421164#p5421164

I've often wondered what the Hot Hands portfolio was. For some reason Madsinger explains what all of them are but that one?

It's nothing but a momentum strategy. As I understood, chase last years winner. BH says do not follow hot performance, Wiener says chase it. For instance, chasing LCG would have worked out well in his favor last 5 years, while SCV heads are chasing cold hands performance. Personally, I won't do either.

[Scooter57]

I also subscribed to Wiener's newsletter when I first started studying investing and found it very helpful in understanding how various Vanguard funds were managed. He interviewed managers beyond the fluff level you usually see. Since Vanguard's description of its funds is very lacking in detail his material was useful.

Many years later I resubscribed, but he no longer was writing the newsletter, and I found nothing of value in the writings of the man who replaced him. His stuff was dumbed down, unlike the earlier material. I tried to cancel my subscription then and did not get a response, so I had to get my credit card company involved.

This is a good example of how some companies really depend on the quality of the principal and can not be continued when they leave.

There was a lot of bashing of Wiener here when I first joined, but I have read far more bad investing advice here on this forum than in Wiener's Vanguard newsletter.

[Robert T]

Would it surprise you to learn that Bogle created the following portfolio?

45% VG Wellington (active)
45% VG Balanced
05% Emerging Markets (sector)
05% Gold

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=312806#p5211248

Morningstar x-ray tells me this has a large cap value tilt, about 60% stocks, 35% bonds/cash, 5% gold. About 10% in international (17% of stock). Bond side is intermediate term with about 50:50 high:medium quality compared to total bond market with all in high quality segment,

So a tilt away from the US 'market portfolio' on both the stock and bond side. Sometimes bogleheads seem to come across as being "holier than the Pope".

The allocation doesn't surprise me - as per this earlier article - https://stevensvisionary.com/wp-content ... e-Look.pdf

My earlier analysis of Vanguard Wellington showed a long-term average value load of 0.24 within stocks, and within bonds a term:default load of 0.48:0.45 - so not far off 50:50. Historical performance was explained by factor exposure - zero manager alpha.
viewtopic.php?p=3230862#p3230862
.

[Robert T]

.
Over the past 19 years, Dan Wiener seems to have been better at asset allocation, than security (manager) selection.

For example: 2001-2019 - annualized return (%) / SD of annual returns

• His:
  Growth portfolio = 8.1 / 18.4
  Growth index portfolio = 8.0 / 17.9

This compares to a 7 percent annualized return (with 18.6 SD of annual returns) for a 85:15 Vanguard TSM [VTSMX]:Vanguard Total International [VGTSX] - not exactly sure the average allocation to international in Wieners' growth portfolios over this period.

Robert
.

[Escapevelocity]

Bogleheads:

I know Mr. Dan Wiener well. He once paid me to write a blind article in his monthly newsletter. His annual "Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds" contains the most comprehensive information about Vanguard funds that I know.

Many years ago I attended a Money Show classroom in which Dan Wiener was the speaker. I was in the second row. Shortly after Dan started speaking an attendee in the first row slipped out of his chair and slumped unconscious on the floor. An ambulance was called and they took the unconscious man away. The remainder of the class was cancelled. I never learned what happened to the man they hauled away.

Several years later I briefly met Mr. Weiner. As a former speech teacher, I tried to make a joke by saying: "Your listener probably died of boredom." Dan didn't laugh.

We have not communicated for many years. I wish him well.

Best wishes.
Taylor

Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "All newsletters cost the investor good money; most offer dubious value."

That's an awesome story. Thanks for sharing it.

[bottlecap]

I had a friend that used the Fidelity version of Dan Wiener. The friend understood low cost investing, just couldn’t believe that passive could beat out active management and believe "doing something" had to get a better return.

I had to laugh in this thread when I saw Wiener's quote that he uses his "journalistic insights" to essentially beat the indexes. That's one of those things that sounds good, but makes no sense if you think about it for a second. Think of pieces written by journalists you've read on subjects that you had deep personal knowledge of. Would you let those same people manage your portfolio?!? Not me.

JT

[nisiprius]

Would it surprise you to learn that Bogle created the following portfolio?

45% VG Wellington (active)
45% VG Balanced
05% Emerging Markets (sector)
05% Gold

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=312806#p5211248

No, it wouldn't (not even if I didn't happen to know what you're referring to). One of the salient characteristics of John C. Bogle is that he was never doctrinaire.

Also, you are not mentioning the purpose for which that portfolio was created. It was not his personal portfolio nor was it a recommendation for a retirement savings portfolio.

He said his personal portfolio included a substantial position in the Wellington fund. He did say that tax considerations, as well as sentiment--he played a huge role in it for many years--in his continued holding of it.

[SADVG]

My feeling on the shutdown is that somehow our Independent interpretations of the Newsletter advice was a threat; Our individual life and investing experience discussion was a threat. It was what I enjoyed, along with all the knowledge shared and gained. The no warning part: shame on them.

[BlindedByTheLight]

Can anyone share the e-mail they received from Mr. Weiner regarding why the forum was shut down?

Curious to hear his reasoning.

Thank you.

[sperry8]

Heath Care, Capital Opportunity

Both have done very well.

Health Care
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion3_3=100

Capital Opportunity
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
.

Capital opportunity is classified as a mid cap growth fund. So it shouldn't be benchmarked against the SP500.

Nor should Healthcare as it's a sector fund. Healthcare has actually tailed off dramatically since Ed Owens (the former mgr left) and now, post tax, trails Vanguards index counterpart.

[littleboss]

We’re writing to you today to alert you to some changes to our website.
Some loyal subscribers have long used the AdviserOnline forum to share ideas and assist fellow FFSA members, and we're grateful for that. However, most subscribers have not been using the forum recently.
So, after some careful consideration, we’ve made the decision to shut down the forum. It was deactivated earlier this morning.
While this will be a disappointment to some of you, know that we’re in the process of upgrading and overhauling our entire website to be more intuitive and user-friendly.
You can look forward to the same great advice from us that you’ve come to expect in a new and improved format.
And, as always, if you have questions about Vanguard funds and ETFs, anything we’ve written in the past or other investment-related questions, you can reach us at Feedback@InvestorPlace.com or 800-219-8592.
We really do want to hear from you.
We’ll be in touch about the new website as we get closer to launch.
Sincerely,

Daniel P. Wiener and Jeff DeMaso

[celia]

I had to laugh in this thread when I saw Wiener's quote that he uses his "journalistic insights" to essentially beat the indexes. That's one of those things that sounds good, but makes no sense if you think about it for a second. Think of pieces written by journalists you've read on subjects that you had deep personal knowledge of. Would you let those same people manage your portfolio?!? Not me.

I'm pretty sure Dan owned most of the funds he wrote about. Being experienced in what you write about is vastly different than trying to write an article that is assigned to you on a topic that is completely new to you. That's why you should want to know the author's "credentials".

[jervalaw]

BW or ButWait what is your take on the shutdown of the Forum. First, we had the death of Nero and now the shutdown of the entire Forum. Were you or others a threat to the Great Dan?

[ResearchMed]

BW or ButWait what is your take on the shutdown of the Forum. First, we had the death of Nero and now the shutdown of the entire Forum. Were you or others a threat to the Great Dan?

Does Butwait still participate here on BH?
It doesn't appear that he (or she?) has posted here in almost 10 years (assuming that the UserID wasn't used by two different people).

That would be nice!

RM

[jervalaw]

BW or ButWait was the star of Dan’s Forum. He was the only reason many people hung on and participated in the Forum. Most were somewhat followers of the Great Dan and his recommended portfolios.

[bottlecap]

I had to laugh in this thread when I saw Wiener's quote that he uses his "journalistic insights" to essentially beat the indexes. That's one of those things that sounds good, but makes no sense if you think about it for a second. Think of pieces written by journalists you've read on subjects that you had deep personal knowledge of. Would you let those same people manage your portfolio?!? Not me.

I'm pretty sure Dan owned most of the funds he wrote about. Being experienced in what you write about is vastly different than trying to write an article that is assigned to you on a topic that is completely new to you. That's why you should want to know the author's "credentials".

Perhaps. But he didn’t say experience investing helped him beat indexing. He said "journalistic insights."

JT

[Sarastro]

I spent a lot of time on the Forum under my own name as a poster especially when the poster "Nero" was alive. He was the most valuable asset there. He had been investing since the bear markets of the late 60's and early 70's when climbing interest rates laid waste to the stock market for much of that era. Very few investors today know what climbing interest rates well into double digits can do to devastate equities. But that scenario ended around 1982 when rates fell for the next 30 years and have been stuck near the bottom ever since. He was a very successful long term investor who followed the rules well and was living a comfortable retirement. I learned a lot from him. When he passed, I felt there was no one left offering really sound advice based on decades of experience, that made sense to me, so I left the forum.
It's a shame they canceled the forum which probably wiped away all of Nero's postings up until his death a couple of years ago. They are valuable tidbits of wisdom about a bygone era. That is the biggest loss to cancelling the Forum.
ButWait was popular too because he never seemed to ever miss a single day for years without posting news articles that offered every possible scenario the stock market might go in, or charts of funds whenever someone was too lazy to do their own research when deciding which funds to invest in, which was not a good idea as most people tried to make him their proxy investment advisor as a result. I always wondered if he had a life outside of that forum! He was himself a very conservative investor, once you could cajole out of him what is own personal asset allocation was, especially given the long term time frame he and many of us there were following or tried to impress on people to adopt when building retirement portfolios. And for some reason he constantly produced postings by this guy (Name escapes me now) who was nothing more than a market timer and encouraged people to get in and get out of domestic or international equities all the time thus wrecking any possibility of investors ever creating a really good Long Term Annual Average number which is the key to successful long term results.
It was a nice place for novices just starting out to get sometimes very good advice (Nero), lots of chart information on Vanguard Funds if you were too lazy to get them yourself (ButWait), and not feel too overwhelmed asking questions. It is very easy over here on the Bogleheads Forum, which has a lot of tough "know-it-all cookies" on it that can often intimidate novice investors.
Life goes on.......

[jervalaw]

Sarastro, certainly, I missed Nero. You nailed BW. He did have a chart for every occasion. He also did quote a market timer. I also can’t recall his name. It did seem the Forum was BW’s life. I hope he can find an outlet for his energies now that the Forum has been shut down. It was quite heartless of DW to shut it down without warning.

[000]

Sarastro, certainly, I missed Nero. You nailed BW. He did have a chart for every occasion. He also did quote a market timer. I also can’t recall his name. It did seem the Forum was BW’s life. I hope he can find an outlet for his energies now that the Forum has been shut down. It was quite heartless of DW to shut it down without warning.

There was no warning at all?

[littleboss]

Sarastro, certainly, I missed Nero. You nailed BW. He did have a chart for every occasion. He also did quote a market timer. I also can’t recall his name. It did seem the Forum was BW’s life. I hope he can find an outlet for his energies now that the Forum has been shut down. It was quite heartless of DW to shut it down without warning.

There was no warning at all?

just the email that I posted here that we got the morning The forum was shut down

[mrmatter]

My feeling on the shutdown is that somehow our Independent interpretations of the Newsletter advice was a threat; Our individual life and investing experience discussion was a threat. It was what I enjoyed, along with all the knowledge shared and gained. The no warning part: shame on them.

Hi. First time poster, here. I just now signed up because my old forum got shut down. I received the email that Sunday, but after I had gone to the forum page to check on things, only to find out that the page was missing. It was a very strange and awful feeling. I was really shocked. Still am.

Yes, I say that I would have to agree with your line of thinking, suspecting, reasoning, whatever it is that you want to call it, SADVG, as most of us who posted there on that forum, including ButWait, were highly critical of some of Dan's (and Jeff's) messages, picks, stances, etc. And with ButWait continually pounding info and charts on Dan's and anyone's discourses, it makes some sense to me that Dan may have felt that we were having a little "too much fun" on the forum... there were many on the forum who frequently made fun of Dan and his ideas. But, for the most part, we were with Dan with most of his theories, most of the time ... I think Dan felt like the forum was stealing his thunder, so to speak... Little Boss, what do you think? How can we get ButWait over here? He really is an amazing resource! If I had to bet money on why Dan Wiener was such a wiener, and closed his own forum down, it was because he couldn't take being "shown up" by ButWait ... anyone know BW"s email address or how to contact him?

[littleboss]

My feeling on the shutdown is that somehow our Independent interpretations of the Newsletter advice was a threat; Our individual life and investing experience discussion was a threat. It was what I enjoyed, along with all the knowledge shared and gained. The no warning part: shame on them.

Hi. First time poster, here. I just now signed up because my old forum got shut down. I received the email that Sunday, but after I had gone to the forum page to check on things, only to find out that the page was missing. It was a very strange and awful feeling. I was really shocked. Still am.

Yes, I say that I would have to agree with your line of thinking, suspecting, reasoning, whatever it is that you want to call it, SADVG, as most of us who posted there on that forum, including ButWait, were highly critical of some of Dan's (and Jeff's) messages, picks, stances, etc. And with ButWait continually pounding info and charts on Dan's and anyone's discourses, it makes some sense to me that Dan may have felt that we were having a little "too much fun" on the forum... there were many on the forum who frequently made fun of Dan and his ideas. But, for the most part, we were with Dan with most of his theories, most of the time ... I think Dan felt like the forum was stealing his thunder, so to speak... Little Boss, what do you think? How can we get ButWait over here? He really is an amazing resource! If I had to bet money on why Dan Wiener was such a wiener, and closed his own forum down, it was because he couldn't take being "shown up" by ButWait ... anyone know BW"s email address or how to contact him?

I was hoping ButWait might appear here or on the Morningstar forums but so far haven't saw him. Sure wish some one had contact info on him

[ResearchMed]

.
ButWait had participated here on BH quite a few years ago (last post seems to have been in 2012?), and I've obviously no idea if he (she?) has "browsed" here since then.

I've sent a PM, and will report back if I hear, or, preferably, BW will post again.

Also, several years ago, I briefly corresponded with BW off the Newsletter Forum. So now i need to try to remember which email account I was using (and if it is still in existence!), and if so, also whether the off-Forum e-account BW used still works.

It would be great to have BW join in again, even if with much less posting and effort... whatever BW feels comfortable with, etc.

BW reminds me of another incredibly helpful BH member, and so much so, that early on after I had joined both BH and the Newsletter Forum, I wondered for a short time if they were the same person.

RM

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

this is the best argument to not relying on newsletters for your investing advice.

even if the performance was good (as some here have claimed), so what? It's not helpful anymore if they shut down. Then what are you to do? Rely on another newsletter?

Better to just own the market and get the return of the market rather than relying on gurus, experts, newsletters, and such.

It's the same argument with mutual funds. Even if you find a winning fund for a while (think Magellan, Janus, etc) the problem is if the winning manager doesn't live as long as you do, then what?

[littleboss]

this is the best argument to not relying on newsletters for your investing advice.

even if the performance was good (as some here have claimed), so what? It's not helpful anymore if they shut down. Then what are you to do? Rely on another newsletter?

Better to just own the market and get the return of the market rather than relying on gurus, experts, newsletters, and such.

It's the same argument with mutual funds. Even if you find a winning fund for a while (think Magellan, Janus, etc) the problem is if the winning manager doesn't live as long as you do, then what?

The newsletter is not shut down. Just his forum

[arcticpineapplecorp.]

this is the best argument to not relying on newsletters for your investing advice.

even if the performance was good (as some here have claimed), so what? It's not helpful anymore if they shut down. Then what are you to do? Rely on another newsletter?

Better to just own the market and get the return of the market rather than relying on gurus, experts, newsletters, and such.

It's the same argument with mutual funds. Even if you find a winning fund for a while (think Magellan, Janus, etc) the problem is if the winning manager doesn't live as long as you do, then what?

The newsletter is not shut down. Just his forum

doesn't matter. my point remains. If you're looking at his newsletter for your returns, what happens when the newsletter writter either dies and/or no longer puts out a newsletter?

[mrmatter]

.
ButWait had participated here on BH quite a few years ago (last post seems to have been in 2012?), and I've obviously no idea if he (she?) has "browsed" here since then.

I've sent a PM, and will report back if I hear, or, preferably, BW will post again.

Also, several years ago, I briefly corresponded with BW off the Newsletter Forum. So now i need to try to remember which email account I was using (and if it is still in existence!), and if so, also whether the off-Forum e-account BW used still works.

It would be great to have BW join in again, even if with much less posting and effort... whatever BW feels comfortable with, etc.

BW reminds me of another incredibly helpful BH member, and so much so, that early on after I had joined both BH and the Newsletter Forum, I wondered for a short time if they were the same person.

RM

YES! ... RM, please do see if you can make contact with him (pretty sure BW is "he"... but god only knows he identifies ...). That would be great. Tell him that you and me and LittleBoss are over here hoping to make contact with him ...

By FAR, the most valuable aspect of the Dan Wiener News Letter (Advisor Online; FFSA for the Vanguard Investor) was the FORUM on the website! Most of us stated publicly on that very forum that the forum was the only reason we renewed our subscriptions to the newsletter... and I will end up cancelling my subscription if Dan doesn't bring back the forum, as others have stated.

thank you very much

[Elysium]

By FAR, the most valuable aspect of the Dan Wiener News Letter (Advisor Online; FFSA for the Vanguard Investor) was the FORUM on the website! Most of us stated publicly on that very forum that the forum was the only reason we renewed our subscriptions to the newsletter... and I will end up cancelling my subscription if Dan doesn't bring back the forum, as others have stated.

I am sorry to hear about the poor handling of this situation by the newsletter people. Just out of curiosity, how many of you actually were participating in this forum? wonder if that was just handful of posters and that is the reason why the newsletter folks found it low value for them to maintain.

[mrmatter]

There were at least a dozen or more of us "regular" users/contributors on the forum who on a daily/semi-daily basis ... and even more who might not be active thread-starters, but were very active thread-responders ...

[littleboss]

I started a Facebook group, so hopefully Dan Wiener subscribers and Vanguard investors will congregate there to share ideas

https://www.facebook.com/groups/297861798106633/

[Elysium]

There were at least a dozen or more of us "regular" users/contributors on the forum who on a daily/semi-daily basis ... and even more who might not be active thread-starters, but were very active thread-responders ...

Right, a dozen or so posters is not a good volume of users to keep a forum running. I read somewhere this guy has some 40,000 odd subscribers, out of that a handful posted on this forum which they possibly found low value. I hate to say it, but it doesn't sound like they'll lose much sleep over a handful of subscribers not renewing. The good news is you don't need him and you have a substantially better forum over here, just hang in there.

[mrmatter]

Thank you, Elysium. Thank you.

The forum was a therapeutic place/thing/activity for me. I always looked forward to checking it twice a day to see what new and interesting and funny articles, comments, insights, info, charts, analyses, and viewpoints were going to be there "this time." The personalities became familiar and tended to grow on me, even ones that I didn't identify with ... so, for me, it was a very sad and stunning shock.
I feel Dan is a real Wiener. He could have given us a head's up, at least, to give us an opportunity to exchange emails for anyone who wanted to do so ...

[littleboss]

There were at least a dozen or more of us "regular" users/contributors on the forum who on a daily/semi-daily basis ... and even more who might not be active thread-starters, but were very active thread-responders ...

Right, a dozen or so posters is not a good volume of users to keep a forum running. I read somewhere this guy has some 40,000 odd subscribers, out of that a handful posted on this forum which they possibly found low value. I hate to say it, but it doesn't sound like they'll lose much sleep over a handful of subscribers not renewing. The good news is you don't need him and you have a substantially better forum over here, just hang in there.

If Dan had of keep the forum software in good shape more would have stayed. For the last year or two, you couldn't post half the time. So by not taking care of the software most left and this gave him a good excuse to get rid of it

[mrmatter]

Little Boss,

thanks for starting up the FB group for VG investors ... I will deintelydefinitely check that out

[jervalaw]

I will also check on the Facebook page. Now we just have to get BW to migrate over there. I know he did almost 50% of the posting on the forum. Perhaps we can still use the Facebook group to react to DW's stuff. I had re-upped just before he killed the Forum (if only I had known).

[littleboss]

I will also check on the Facebook page. Now we just have to get BW to migrate over there. I know he did almost 50% of the posting on the forum. Perhaps we can still use the Facebook group to react to DW's stuff. I had re-upped just before he killed the Forum (if only I had known).

Welcome to the Facebook group. It might take awhile to get going but at least we have a place to congregate

[Paul69]

My newsletter subscription is ending in a few months. Just got another "lifetime" renewal offer that I won't be taking advantage of. I found the newsletter helpful years ago, but when Dan started to transition out the writing was much more superficial. I held on due to the forum, but when that was yanked away the value just wasn't there for me. The only consolation was I always caught one of their sweet subscription deals where was my last one was $59 a year for 3 years. I think those days are over!