Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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skor99
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Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

Nasdaq at all time highs by far, S&P within 2% of all time highs, but COVID also at all time highs and growing... something has to give is the feeling that I get and I am sure a lot of people are feeling that.
If you have come close or crossed your previous portfolio high and/or reached or are close to your ‘number’, do you take your toys and go home ? Or atleast get super conservative 80-20 in cash/bonds vs stocks ?
sailaway
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by sailaway »

Carry on.
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anon_investor
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by anon_investor »

sailaway wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:54 pmCarry on.
+1.
livesoft
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by livesoft »

I learned that I could lose a million dollars and get it all back, so no need to stop playing. Carry on.
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7eight9
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 7eight9 »

If you have won the game why not pick your ball and go home?

I remember one night years ago when Bobby was running the dice pit. It was a slow weekday and only one table was still open. Around 1:00am the table was ahead six figures. So what did Bobby do? He closed the game and sent the crew home. There was no way that he was going to risk giving back a six figure win.

It is good to quit a winner.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
ChiKid24
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by ChiKid24 »

The long-term annual growth rate of the S&P 500 is positive. That means it is not uncommon to be at or near "all time highs". Looking back at the last 7 years, here is the number of times the S&P hit an all time high in each of those years:

2013: 45 times
2014: 52
2015: 10
2016: 18
2017: 62
2018: 19
2019: 34

If you sold when we hit an all-time high in 2013, you would have missed out on 123% growth.
If you sold when we hit an all-time high in 2014, you would have missed out on 80% growth.
Even if you sold when it broke 3,000 in July 2019 or again this past May, you would have missed out on 12% growth.

Are you telling me "this time it's different"?
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Sandtrap
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Sandtrap »

Ignore financial news, media frenzy, aura of chaos, and public anxiety.
Stick to your IPS.

j :happy
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Silverado
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Silverado »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:52 pm Nasdaq at all time highs by far, S&P within 2% of all time highs, but COVID also at all time highs and growing... something has to give is the feeling that I get and I am sure a lot of people are feeling that.
If you have come close or crossed your previous portfolio high and/or reached or are close to your ‘number’, do you take your toys and go home ? Or atleast get super conservative 80-20 in cash/bonds vs stocks ?
Same as I did in February, carry on. Same as I’ll do next disaster.
7eight9
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 7eight9 »

Imagine the Japanese investor in December 1989.

Those who took their toys home are still patting themselves on the back three decades later.

Markets don't always go up.

Sometimes they go down and stay down for decades.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:25 pm Imagine the Japanese investor in December 1989.

Those who took their toys home are still patting themselves on the back three decades later.

Markets don't always go up.

Sometimes they go down and stay down for decades.
[Yawn] When will people realize we aren't Japan? And certainly nowhere near where Japan was in 1989.
Topic Author
skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm Ignore financial news, media frenzy, aura of chaos, and public anxiety.
Stick to your IPS.

j :happy
I try very hard and feel that I am pretty successful at ignoring all the talking heads on TV, but how do you ignore the facts of rising dysfunction in Washington , rising Covid, ever rising debt and now even the aura of the almighty US dollar starting to dim as a reserve currency ( which is probably the main reason for US superpower status ) ? Couldn’t all this be a reason of a long term decline like Japan after the 1980s ?
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:32 pm
7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:25 pm Imagine the Japanese investor in December 1989.

Those who took their toys home are still patting themselves on the back three decades later.

Markets don't always go up.

Sometimes they go down and stay down for decades.
[Yawn] When will people realize we aren't Japan? And certainly nowhere near where Japan was in 1989.
Can you please provide your reasoning for that ?
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:33 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm Ignore financial news, media frenzy, aura of chaos, and public anxiety.
Stick to your IPS.

j :happy
I try very hard and feel that I am pretty successful at ignoring all the talking heads on TV, but how do you ignore the facts of rising dysfunction in Washington , rising Covid, ever rising debt and now even the aura of the almighty US dollar starting to dim as a reserve currency ( which is probably the main reason for US superpower status ) ? Couldn’t all this be a reason of a long term decline like Japan after the 1980s ?
I think you have cause and effect between reserve currency and superpower status backward.
000
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 000 »

Consider limiting a "tactical trim" to 10-20%.

Also consider that USD may not be a great store of value either.
Silverado
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Silverado »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:33 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm Ignore financial news, media frenzy, aura of chaos, and public anxiety.
Stick to your IPS.

j :happy
I try very hard and feel that I am pretty successful at ignoring all the talking heads on TV, but how do you ignore the facts of rising dysfunction in Washington , rising Covid, ever rising debt and now even the aura of the almighty US dollar starting to dim as a reserve currency ( which is probably the main reason for US superpower status ) ? Couldn’t all this be a reason of a long term decline like Japan after the 1980s ?
Could be. Could also not be. There’s a lot of rich people in Japan, and there will be a lot of rich people here. I could buy stocks for twenty more years as they decline. Bought at the top before, bought at the bottom before. All feels the same to me.
jebmke
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by jebmke »

I’m home already.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
Silverado
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Silverado »

jebmke wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:41 pm I’m home already.
I could tell because you weren’t wearing a mask.
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:34 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:32 pm
7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:25 pm Imagine the Japanese investor in December 1989.

Those who took their toys home are still patting themselves on the back three decades later.

Markets don't always go up.

Sometimes they go down and stay down for decades.
[Yawn] When will people realize we aren't Japan? And certainly nowhere near where Japan was in 1989.
Can you please provide your reasoning for that ?
Demographics and valuation. Our population is still growing due to continued net immigration. Japan's fall in population is accelerating. And the CAPE10 for Japan in 1989 was around 90. The US CAPE10 right now is around 30.
Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
flyingcows
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by flyingcows »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:52 pm Nasdaq at all time highs by far, S&P within 2% of all time highs, but COVID also at all time highs and growing... something has to give is the feeling that I get and I am sure a lot of people are feeling that.
If you have come close or crossed your previous portfolio high and/or reached or are close to your ‘number’, do you take your toys and go home ? Or atleast get super conservative 80-20 in cash/bonds vs stocks ?
All assets are going up, not just stocks, silver is up 50% in the past 3 weeks.
jarjarM
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by jarjarM »

With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:53 pm With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by TheTimeLord »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:53 pm With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
So what do you think the odds are of this nightmare scenario of yours occurring in the next 2, 5 or 10 years?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
jarjarM
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by jarjarM »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:05 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:53 pm With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
So what do you think the odds are of this nightmare scenario of yours occurring in the next 2, 5 or 10 years?
As usual, no one knows, but looking at gold/silver/bitcoin run up, I bet not a small minority of investors are concern about this and putting money into things that they believe are inflation resistant. I personally aren't betting on high inflation within the next year or two, at least not til money velocity goes up significantly. So I will do the KlangFool method, hold some amount of gold for getting out of the country dooms day scenario :twisted: and invest the rest according to my IPS
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:05 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:53 pm With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
So what do you think the odds are of this nightmare scenario of yours occurring in the next 2, 5 or 10 years?
Wouldn’t I be the richest boglehead if I knew that ?😃
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by CyclingDuo »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:52 pm Nasdaq at all time highs by far, S&P within 2% of all time highs, but COVID also at all time highs and growing... something has to give is the feeling that I get and I am sure a lot of people are feeling that.
If you have come close or crossed your previous portfolio high and/or reached or are close to your ‘number’, do you take your toys and go home ? Or atleast get super conservative 80-20 in cash/bonds vs stocks ?
Good things coming to the stock market over the next few years. :beer :D

Follow along every week here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTs4HxUb_Zc
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by TheTimeLord »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:05 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:53 pm With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
So what do you think the odds are of this nightmare scenario of yours occurring in the next 2, 5 or 10 years?
Wouldn’t I be the richest boglehead if I knew that ?😃
No, the odds of something occurring and what actually occurs are different.
So you are going to make a major change in your AA without any belief in how likely it is that the scenario you are protecting against might occur.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:15 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:05 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:53 pm With all the liquidity injection by the Fed and ballon M2 supply, maybe one should be more worry about inflation, which means CASH/BOND is not good holdings.
This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
So what do you think the odds are of this nightmare scenario of yours occurring in the next 2, 5 or 10 years?
Wouldn’t I be the richest boglehead if I knew that ?😃
No, the odds of something occurring and what actually occurs are different.
So you are going to make a major change in your AA without any belief in how likely it is that the scenario you are protecting against might occur.
I never said I am going to. The whole point of this thread is try to understand what to make of the seemingly contradictory stockMarket and the big problems with the real economy.
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Sandtrap
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Sandtrap »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:33 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm Ignore financial news, media frenzy, aura of chaos, and public anxiety.
Stick to your IPS.

j :happy
I try very hard and feel that I am pretty successful at ignoring all the talking heads on TV, but how do you ignore the facts of rising dysfunction in Washington , rising Covid, ever rising debt and now even the aura of the almighty US dollar starting to dim as a reserve currency ( which is probably the main reason for US superpower status ) ? Couldn’t all this be a reason of a long term decline like Japan after the 1980s ?
My mom was a classic poverty to wealth, on her own labors and efforts, life story. She passed away at 97.
She worked for many years as a bank auditor and befriended all the "rich people", and heard all the back and front room banker and finance conversations and gossip. She was poor and struggled to dress nice and be of best service and learn. Her mentors were glad to teach her.

She once said, "invest in Gerber Baby Food and diapers because the world will always be having more babies." It was a sort of metaphor told to her by a retired banker and wealthy financier, also a rags to riches story.

The idea of this is to separate domestic and various local events, conditions, fluctuations, and look at the larger growth of the world population as it's own "global all inclusive economy". And, look at it in the overall trend of growth.
This is far larger than the "market", "the economy per se", and so forth.

So, it doesn't matter if the chickens are arguing or not getting along, the overall trend in a large chicken egg farm is that there are always eggs being laid and more chickens (from fertile eggs) as well, thus more and more eggs.

As for taking one's toys and going home. That's not possible. Nobody's leaving the pool.

j :happy
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000
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 000 »

OP, where is "home"? Cash and bonds have inflation risk. Gold has had a lot of price appreciation recently. Commodities are "gross".

I guess value stocks (including international) are an option. But is there any reason to believe they are anything but fairly valued?
RiotAct
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by RiotAct »

I guess I’ll carry on...... but I have 30 years until retirement still :D
GoldenFinch
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by GoldenFinch »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:03 pm If you have won the game why not pick your ball and go home?

I remember one night years ago when Bobby was running the dice pit. It was a slow weekday and only one table was still open. Around 1:00am the table was ahead six figures. So what did Bobby do? He closed the game and sent the crew home. There was no way that he was going to risk giving back a six figure win.

It is good to quit a winner.
But Bobby was gambling. People here are investing. So it’s not the same. At least, that’s what I like to think.
grettman
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by grettman »

Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:29 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:33 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm Ignore financial news, media frenzy, aura of chaos, and public anxiety.
Stick to your IPS.

j :happy
I try very hard and feel that I am pretty successful at ignoring all the talking heads on TV, but how do you ignore the facts of rising dysfunction in Washington , rising Covid, ever rising debt and now even the aura of the almighty US dollar starting to dim as a reserve currency ( which is probably the main reason for US superpower status ) ? Couldn’t all this be a reason of a long term decline like Japan after the 1980s ?
My mom was a classic poverty to wealth, on her own labors and efforts, life story. She passed away at 97.
She worked for many years as a bank auditor and befriended all the "rich people", and heard all the back and front room banker and finance conversations and gossip. She was poor and struggled to dress nice and be of best service and learn. Her mentors were glad to teach her.

She once said, "invest in Gerber Baby Food and diapers because the world will always be having more babies." It was a sort of metaphor told to her by a retired banker and wealthy financier, also a rags to riches story.

The idea of this is to separate domestic and various local events, conditions, fluctuations, and look at the larger growth of the world population as it's own "global all inclusive economy". And, look at it in the overall trend of growth.
This is far larger than the "market", "the economy per se", and so forth.

So, it doesn't matter if the chickens are arguing or not getting along, the overall trend in a large chicken egg farm is that there are always eggs being laid and more chickens (from fertile eggs) as well, thus more and more eggs.

As for taking one's toys and going home. That's not possible. Nobody's leaving the pool.

j :happy
Agreed. Besides, the pool has been nice for me over the last couple of decades or so. Yeah... sometimes someone leaves a Baby Ruth in the water but it turns out okay..
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:34 pm OP, where is "home"? Cash and bonds have inflation risk. Gold has had a lot of price appreciation recently. Commodities are "gross".

I guess value stocks (including international) are an option. But is there any reason to believe they are anything but fairly valued?
I have never invested in TIPS, but think that provides inflation protection with a small fixed rate of return ? Does that make sense in these times ?
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:27 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:15 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:05 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:00 pm

This is one reason for my hesitation in taking the toys home. Bonds/cash don’t look to be particularly good alternatives.
So what do you think the odds are of this nightmare scenario of yours occurring in the next 2, 5 or 10 years?
Wouldn’t I be the richest boglehead if I knew that ?😃
No, the odds of something occurring and what actually occurs are different.
So you are going to make a major change in your AA without any belief in how likely it is that the scenario you are protecting against might occur.
I never said I am going to. The whole point of this thread is try to understand what to make of the seemingly contradictory stockMarket and the big problems with the real economy.
oh, well why didn't you just ask a question like, "How come the stock market is so disconnected from the economy?"

that's been asked so many times since February I can't count them all. But you can read all of them here:

https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... bogleheads

in the meantime, there's always fear in the markets. look at all the times the "experts" were warning about markets falling...and then what happened after that:

Image
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
000
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 000 »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:46 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:34 pm OP, where is "home"? Cash and bonds have inflation risk. Gold has had a lot of price appreciation recently. Commodities are "gross".

I guess value stocks (including international) are an option. But is there any reason to believe they are anything but fairly valued?
I have never invested in TIPS, but think that provides inflation protection with a small fixed rate of return ? Does that make sense in these times ?
TIPS real yields are currently negative. So you get a guaranteed (by the government) return, but it is not a positive return. Maybe guaranteeing a slight loss is better than risking a bigger one? Depends on your situation/perspective.

Series I bonds are an option, but you can only buy a limited amount per year.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Carry on. And stop consuming whatever news media has prompted you to want to take your toys and go home.
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:49 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:46 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:34 pm OP, where is "home"? Cash and bonds have inflation risk. Gold has had a lot of price appreciation recently. Commodities are "gross".

I guess value stocks (including international) are an option. But is there any reason to believe they are anything but fairly valued?
I have never invested in TIPS, but think that provides inflation protection with a small fixed rate of return ? Does that make sense in these times ?
TIPS real yields are currently negative. So you get a guaranteed (by the government) return, but it is not a positive return. Maybe guaranteeing a slight loss is better than risking a bigger one? Depends on your situation/perspective.

Series I bonds are an option, but you can only buy a limited amount per year.


Maybe I don’t understand, but why is the div yield showing as 1.58% on yahoo finance or cnbc for VTIP ( vanguard short term inflation protected securities )
000
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 000 »

skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:03 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:49 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:46 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:34 pm OP, where is "home"? Cash and bonds have inflation risk. Gold has had a lot of price appreciation recently. Commodities are "gross".

I guess value stocks (including international) are an option. But is there any reason to believe they are anything but fairly valued?
I have never invested in TIPS, but think that provides inflation protection with a small fixed rate of return ? Does that make sense in these times ?
TIPS real yields are currently negative. So you get a guaranteed (by the government) return, but it is not a positive return. Maybe guaranteeing a slight loss is better than risking a bigger one? Depends on your situation/perspective.

Series I bonds are an option, but you can only buy a limited amount per year.


Maybe I don’t understand, but why is the div yield showing as 1.58% on yahoo finance or cnbc for VTIP ( vanguard short term inflation protected securities )
That is a nominal yield.
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:52 pm Carry on. And stop consuming whatever news media has prompted you to want to take your toys and go home.
As I already said, prompted not by media but by facts all around us.
000
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 000 »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:04 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:03 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:49 pm
skor99 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:46 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:34 pm OP, where is "home"? Cash and bonds have inflation risk. Gold has had a lot of price appreciation recently. Commodities are "gross".

I guess value stocks (including international) are an option. But is there any reason to believe they are anything but fairly valued?
I have never invested in TIPS, but think that provides inflation protection with a small fixed rate of return ? Does that make sense in these times ?
TIPS real yields are currently negative. So you get a guaranteed (by the government) return, but it is not a positive return. Maybe guaranteeing a slight loss is better than risking a bigger one? Depends on your situation/perspective.

Series I bonds are an option, but you can only buy a limited amount per year.


Maybe I don’t understand, but why is the div yield showing as 1.58% on yahoo finance or cnbc for VTIP ( vanguard short term inflation protected securities )
That is a nominal yield.
See: tipswatch article about negative real yield
7eight9
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 7eight9 »

GoldenFinch wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:42 pm
7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:03 pm If you have won the game why not pick your ball and go home?

I remember one night years ago when Bobby was running the dice pit. It was a slow weekday and only one table was still open. Around 1:00am the table was ahead six figures. So what did Bobby do? He closed the game and sent the crew home. There was no way that he was going to risk giving back a six figure win.

It is good to quit a winner.
But Bobby was gambling. People here are investing. So it’s not the same. At least, that’s what I like to think.
Bobby wasn't gambling. Bobby was the casino. He had the edge. And he still opted to quit winners.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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LittleGreenSoldiers
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by LittleGreenSoldiers »

"Carry on"= Stay the course. I personally rebalanced this week per my IPS. My IPS always keeps me on course when I think I need to ask a question..
So I say "Carry on"!
retire2022
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by retire2022 »

Op

On Monday I sold about 11% of my portfolio from VSEQX, this was in my Roth IRA since 1995, a little sad. I went from 93/7 to 79.5/6.6/13

I'm 60 years old, my portfolio was 1.833 million on Feb 21, now my portfolio is 1.875 million, and expect to retire Dec 2020.
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skor99
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by skor99 »

I admire your guts to be 93/7 at age 60. How did you handle the fall from 1.8 MM to 1.2 MM in March ?
Dottie57
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Dottie57 »

I find it hard to look at the news and believe all will be well in the next in the next 10 years. I have changed my allocation to a conservative amount of stocks. But I’ve learned the lesson well - my parents had all bonds and mom worried about running out of money. She saw her totals going down a lot - saving grace was thatthey were purchased in 1990’s.

Playing a smaller game fits me best.
software
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by software »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:50 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:42 pm
7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:03 pm If you have won the game why not pick your ball and go home?

I remember one night years ago when Bobby was running the dice pit. It was a slow weekday and only one table was still open. Around 1:00am the table was ahead six figures. So what did Bobby do? He closed the game and sent the crew home. There was no way that he was going to risk giving back a six figure win.

It is good to quit a winner.
But Bobby was gambling. People here are investing. So it’s not the same. At least, that’s what I like to think.
Bobby wasn't gambling. Bobby was the casino. He had the edge. And he still opted to quit winners.
So does Bobby no longer fundamentally believe in the profitability of dice pits? Does Bobby not plan on re-opening his dice pit the next day or the next week? Why is his six figure loss any more likely to happen the night he closed rather than the next time he reopens.

Hopefully you see where these questions are going, market timing is a fool’s errand.
Jack FFR1846
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Market all time highs only happen once every 2 lifetimes (of a mosquito). If you run around with your hair on fire every time the market hits a new high, people are going to be annoyed enough to call security on you.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
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TechGuy365
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by TechGuy365 »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:25 pm Imagine the Japanese investor in December 1989.

Those who took their toys home are still patting themselves on the back three decades later.

Markets don't always go up.

Sometimes they go down and stay down for decades.
This is only academic and statistic, with no real-life impact. IF this were to happen in the US (BIG IF, I would say impossible) people would be investing elsewhere and not stay in a down market for 30 years like a sitting duck. You will need to find a 30-year period where the US AND global stocks AND bonds AND real estate AND every other asset being down - all at the same time.

Most of us aren't doomsday preppers in real life with underground bunkers, thus we don't invest like one.
onourway
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by onourway »

If your intention is to spend it all today or this week, then yes, cash out now.

Since I hope to rely on my investments for the next 50 years, I'm not changing anything based on today's news.
260chrisb
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Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Post by 260chrisb »

My plan is to carry on and not take any more of my toys home than planned previously. I sold and protected my first two years of retirement in December of last year and planned to do the same for my third year at the end of this year and the end of next for year four provided the markets are up. Selling now to protect my third year would be the same as having done it for three years at the end of 2019 since the markets are about even for the year or getting close. I'm going to likely consider it at the end of the month but will likely hold off until the end of the year.
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