Gold continues to soar!

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cybertruck2021
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by cybertruck2021 »

Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
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000
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

market timer wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:18 pm Based on my fair value model that treats gold as a long term inflation adjusted bond, gold is still catching up to the tremendous decline in long term real yields. Fair value is $2109 vs. spot price of $2068, given 30-year real interest rates of -0.48%.

The decline in real interest rates has gone beyond what I thought we'd ever see. Gold can be thought of as a canary in the coal mine of commodity inflation. If people start hoarding commodities like oil, rather than just precious metals, in response to the poor returns offered by bonds, we would finally see low rates leading to inflation.
Thanks for posting this. It does seem that a lot of Gold's price action is being fueled by low interest rates and FOMO.
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jason2459
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:55 pm
cobra911 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:07 pm That's an excellent question ... I know some of the miners like Newmont (NEM), Barrack(GOLD) and Agnico Eagle(AEM) are rather large companies and you would think they should be part of the index. Curious to see if anyone knows the answer to this.
NEM is in S&P 500. I didn't see the others in ITOT, but that may be due to sampling.
Thanks all. Don't know how or if I can muti quote to thank those that responded to my question.

So, looks like I'm in on gold and precious metals between ITOT, VTSAX, VXUS, and IXUS. Go gold!

Keep on buying y'all! :beer
JBTX
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by JBTX »

I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
anoop
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by anoop »

000 wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:46 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:33 pm
000 wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:48 pm In all seriousness, the Gold $1600 Oz - When? thread has become obsolete! A new thread was needed. I personally have a small allocation to Gold.
Do you own physical gold that you store in a vault, or do you own an ETF such as GLD, or do you own stock in gold mining companies?
Not miners. If you're looking for an ETF, I believe BAR and AAAU are now the cheapest and second cheapest. (I may own one/both).
SGOL is tied with BAR on expense ratio.
Robot Monster
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:09 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:06 pm
cobra911 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:07 pm
jason2459 wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:56 pm
000 wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:46 pm

Not miners. If you're looking for an ETF, I believe BAR and AAAU are now the cheapest and second cheapest. (I may own one/both).
I'm curious but have never checked are gold or any precious metals miners part of the total stock market ? I know commodities are not. Or at least I don't think they are...
That's an excellent question ... I know some of the miners like Newmont (NEM), Barrack(GOLD) and Agnico Eagle(AEM) are rather large companies and you would think they should be part of the index. Curious to see if anyone knows the answer to this.
Barrick is the 6th top holding of iShares MSCI Canada ETF, and Agnico is 22nd. I assume both can be found in Total International.
Can't believe I didn't realize those were from Canada :oops:
Same thing happened to me with Ryan Reynolds. Canada towers over all other countries in gold mining, comprising 54% of iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF, vs 18% US.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239 ... miners-etf
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whodidntante
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

This thread would get more enthusiasm if it were US gold that continues to soar. :twisted:
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo »

cybertruck2021 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:40 pm Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
Which is part of what is chasing the greater fool theory as speculators pile into an ETF such as GLD.

Even Mark Hulbert chimed in today...

Gold is a foolish place to put your money right now if you check the facts

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... 2020-08-07

CyclingDuo
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CyclingDuo wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:20 am
cybertruck2021 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:40 pm Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
Which is part of what is chasing the greater fool theory as speculators pile into an ETF such as GLD.

Even Mark Hulbert chimed in today...

Gold is a foolish place to put your money right now if you check the facts

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... 2020-08-07

CyclingDuo
Dude! Don't. Check. Facts.

Thank you,
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

CyclingDuo wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:20 am
cybertruck2021 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:40 pm Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
Which is part of what is chasing the greater fool theory as speculators pile into an ETF such as GLD.

Even Mark Hulbert chimed in today...

Gold is a foolish place to put your money right now if you check the facts

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... 2020-08-07

CyclingDuo
I stopped reading when I realized the author was using the same incorrect assessment of the reason to own Gold and its purpose in a portfolio. In general, the 2 reasons I most commonly see for owning Gold are IMO incorrect and do not give an accurate picture why one would invest in the yellow metal. That said I could be total incorrect and others could be 100% correct.
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asif408
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by asif408 »

whodidntante wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:05 am This thread would get more enthusiasm if it were US gold that continues to soar. :twisted:
All this optimism on gold has made me glad I've reduced my precious metals equity allocation in the last few weeks and thrown the profits into international value equities. At least there I don't have to worry about excessive enthusiasm, just people telling me how crazy I am to be investing so much internationally. :shock:

Maybe this thread would get more enthusiasm if it promoted a 50% gold miners/50% US tech stocks portfolio for the long run. It's crushed a US only portfolio for the last 5 years, and beat a 100% US tech portfolio as well: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=50. That seems long-term enough to extrapolate about it's future performance, doesn't it?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

asif408 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:59 am
whodidntante wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:05 am This thread would get more enthusiasm if it were US gold that continues to soar. :twisted:
All this optimism on gold has made me glad I've reduced my precious metals equity allocation in the last few weeks and thrown the profits into international value equities. At least there I don't have to worry about excessive enthusiasm, just people telling me how crazy I am to be investing so much internationally. :shock:

Maybe this thread would get more enthusiasm if it promoted a 50% gold miners/50% US tech stocks portfolio for the long run. It's crushed a US only portfolio for the last 5 years, and beat a 100% US tech portfolio as well: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=50. That seems long-term enough to extrapolate about it's future performance, doesn't it?
50% RING ETF, 50% QQQ ETF!!! Boom! Perfect portfolio right there!
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

whodidntante wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:05 am This thread would get more enthusiasm if it were US gold that continues to soar. :twisted:
:) :D :mrgreen:
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

cybertruck2021 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:40 pm Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
The counterargument is that all of those things are priced in and so the gold price -- assuming it is actually reflective of interest rates and inflation risk -- already reflects that.

I admire your courage to make a prediction on the future price :twisted:
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:57 pm
cybertruck2021 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:40 pm Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
The counterargument is that all of those things are priced in and so the gold price -- assuming it is actually reflective of interest rates and inflation risk -- already reflects that.

I admire your courage to make a prediction on the future price :twisted:
Gold could go much higher if all this money printing causes an inflationary surprise, but there's a big difference between buying gold as insurance and playing a speculation game. So, as far as admiring cybertruck's courage? Personally not feeling it.
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Keenobserver
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

3.8% of my portfolio is in GLDM..Its more than just a yellow metal. Most of civilized history has used Gold.as a measure of wealth, the " Gold " standard if you will. Other metals have had their day in the limelight, but Gold continues to be standard. I dont mind it at all as a percentage of my portfolio.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Keenobserver wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:59 pm 3.8% of my portfolio is in GLDM..Its more than just a yellow metal. Most of civilized history has used Gold.as a measure of wealth, the " Gold " standard if you will. Other metals have had their day in the limelight, but Gold continues to be standard. I dont mind it at all as a percentage of my portfolio.
I'm surprised more people don't choose GLDM over GLD, since GLDM has a better expense ratio.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Nate79 wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:57 pm Talk about a lost decade. Finally getting back to 2011 prices.
That's better than ex-U.S. stock, which has had a slightly negative real return for U.S. investors since August of 2007.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:52 pm you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable.
That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully).

"When he was in the air."
"No, that was after he jumped."

"When he was on the bridge."
"No, that was before he jumped."
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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ohboy!
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by ohboy! »

JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
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jason2459
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

ohboy! wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
So what's the sales growth of gold? Or it's P/E? Yes, there's short term speculation on company's values but over time there are corrections up and down keeping them in line with the book values of the company.

The cost of gold will always be speculative in the short and long.

Investing in company stock and gold are not the same at all what so ever. Some see that as a good thing.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:32 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:52 pm you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable.
That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully).

"When he was in the air."
"No, that was after he jumped."

"When he was on the bridge."
"No, that was before he jumped."
Image
guess we can say it stopped soaring.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

ohboy! wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm
ohboy! wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
True, but that's more than can be said of fiat currency these days.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:01 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm
ohboy! wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
True, but that's more than can be said of fiat currency these days.
Agreed. Right now Gold and most fiat currencies are looking at slightly negative real returns (assuming storage cost for Gold).

However, in reference to ohboy!'s post, I was trying to communicate that the pricing models of FB or TSLA common stock incorporate an important variable (earnings from productive activity) that is not present in the pricing model of Gold. Of course either or both could be over- or under-valued.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:09 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:01 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm
ohboy! wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
True, but that's more than can be said of fiat currency these days.
Agreed. Right now Gold and most fiat currencies are looking at slightly negative real returns (assuming storage cost for Gold).
There is an important word absent from your sentence: 'expected' (i.e. 'expected negative real returns'). That theory may or may not be accurate. We don't know.
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:09 pmHowever, in reference to ohboy!'s post, I was trying to communicate that the pricing models of FB or TSLA common stock incorporate an important variable (earnings from productive activity) that is not present in the pricing model of Gold. Of course either or both could be over- or under-valued.
Yes, stock pricing models exist and appear to have at least limited predictive ability. Gold is far less predictable it seems, but maybe we'll get there too.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:13 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:09 pm Agreed. Right now Gold and most fiat currencies are looking at slightly negative real returns (assuming storage cost for Gold).
There is an important word absent from your sentence: 'expected' (i.e. 'expected negative real returns'). That theory may or may not be accurate. We don't know.
They are "looking at" the "expected" returns :D
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking. Jean-Michel Basquiat’s painting "Boy and Dog in a Johnnnypump" fetched over $100 million, yet you can't eat it. I guess both Basquiat's paintings and gold are 1) rare and 2) desired. Is that it, is that the answer? I dunno. I forgot the question.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by columbia »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking.
At the level of paintings you're discussing, the prices go one way...up. And always will.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by JBTX »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:32 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:52 pm you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable.
That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully).

"When he was in the air."
"No, that was after he jumped."

"When he was on the bridge."
"No, that was before he jumped."
Image
guess we can say it stopped soaring.
It must have it a "resistance barrier". Eventually it will "break through" and go to $1000000.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking. Jean-Michel Basquiat’s painting "Boy and Dog in a Johnnnypump" fetched over $100 million, yet you can't eat it. I guess both Basquiat's paintings and gold are 1) rare and 2) desired. Is that it, is that the answer? I dunno. I forgot the question.
One difference is that paintings aren't fungible.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking. Jean-Michel Basquiat’s painting "Boy and Dog in a Johnnnypump" fetched over $100 million, yet you can't eat it. I guess both Basquiat's paintings and gold are 1) rare and 2) desired. Is that it, is that the answer? I dunno. I forgot the question.
One difference is that paintings aren't fungible.
Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.

I'm sure that at current prices for gold (and silver, which has gone up considerably too), miners around the world are doing their best to ramp up production.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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000
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works.
Another difference between Art and Gold/Silver is that it's much easier to forge the former than the latter -- as Gold and Silver are atomic elements -- although most don't have the equipment to detect the best Gold fakes.
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.
Queuing up asteroid mining comments...
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:11 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:32 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:52 pm you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable.
That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully).

"When he was in the air."
"No, that was after he jumped."

"When he was on the bridge."
"No, that was before he jumped."
Image
guess we can say it stopped soaring.
It must have it a "resistance barrier". Eventually it will "break through" and go to $1000000.
where have I heard this before...oh yeah:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambr ... 34aae849e5
https://cointelegraph.com/news/worthles ... uld-hit-1m
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
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HomerJ
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 1:28 pm Moving on up again nicely today. Gold at $2,062 and silver at $28.47.

Gold rising to $4,000 an ounce ‘would not be an unreasonable move,’ fund manager says
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... 2020-08-06
After you've been investing for a few years, you'll learn to stop reading financial porn.

Sure, gold "could" go to $4000... but no one knows. This is important. NO ONE KNOWS.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by JBTX »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:00 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:11 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:32 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:52 pm you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable.
That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully).

"When he was in the air."
"No, that was after he jumped."

"When he was on the bridge."
"No, that was before he jumped."
Image
guess we can say it stopped soaring.
It must have it a "resistance barrier". Eventually it will "break through" and go to $1000000.
where have I heard this before...oh yeah:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambr ... 34aae849e5
https://cointelegraph.com/news/worthles ... uld-hit-1m
I think it is safe to say that is the most times "eat my......." has ever been used in a business periodical. I could be wrong.
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unclescrooge
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by unclescrooge »

columbia wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:53 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking.
At the level of paintings you're discussing, the prices go one way...up. And always will.
I understand gold. I do not understand mediocre art that seems for 100,000 times what I would pay a local artist to reproduce
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unclescrooge
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by unclescrooge »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking. Jean-Michel Basquiat’s painting "Boy and Dog in a Johnnnypump" fetched over $100 million, yet you can't eat it. I guess both Basquiat's paintings and gold are 1) rare and 2) desired. Is that it, is that the answer? I dunno. I forgot the question.
One difference is that paintings aren't fungible.
Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.

I'm sure that at current prices for gold (and silver, which has gone up considerably too), miners around the world are doing their best to ramp up production.
Monet may be dead, bit the style is not. I could find an art student to create a similar piece on his style for a fraction of the cost. I don't get it.

And I have $10k worth of art in my house right now.
oken
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by oken »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:32 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:52 pm you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable.
That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully).

"When he was in the air."
"No, that was after he jumped."

"When he was on the bridge."
"No, that was before he jumped."
guess we can say it stopped soaring.
No man. It's just soaring lower...
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by oken »

000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm
ohboy! wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
JBTX wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:12 am I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Nonetheless it has since gone up even more.

The thing about gold or silver is there really is no definable "value", which makes the sky the limit. people are starting to chew on the fact that we seem to have reached QE to infinity and beyond and it is feeding the narrative. Heck I don't like them as investments but I bought in.

It wouldn't shock me to see it go up to $4000-$5000. Or not. I have no clue. Just a hunch.
The demand for facebook or tesla stock isn’t much different. Its not like they pay some good dividend or likely ever will. It’s not like their profits are related to market cap.
Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
Sitting there and doing nothing is about half the boglehead investment philosophy...
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Forester
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Forester »

Gold is going much higher. This pullback, which is insignificant, is possibly the last chance to buy before $5,000 an ounce. And once we get there the road is clear to $10k. The time to panic buy gold is now 8-)
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:07 pmSure, gold "could" go to $4000... but no one knows. This is important. NO ONE KNOWS.
Half the people in this thread know, just ask 'em.

Or don't ask them and they'll still tell you :D
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pmAnother is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.
That's why I just buy ancient gold (or electrum, the natural silver/gold mix). Croesus and the Lydians aren't going to mint any more coins since Cyrus and the Persians destroyed them.

This hekte's only 2.4g, but I eventually want to get a full stater of about 11g. Someday...

Image
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Stinky »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:07 pm Sure, gold "could" go to $4000... but no one knows. This is important. NO ONE KNOWS.
Half of the folks in this thread don’t know where the price is going.

The other half don’t know that they don’t know where the price is going. :twisted:
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Forester wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:42 am Gold is going much higher. This pullback, which is insignificant, is possibly the last chance to buy before $5,000 an ounce. And once we get there the road is clear to $10k. The time to panic buy gold is now 8-)
Price speculation is a dangerous game. You might just wind up in the house of pain.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Corsair »

cybertruck2021 wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:40 pm Gold is likely to continue higher, MUCH HIGHER... on a fundamental level, every government is printing billions of dollars or more to deal with covid, stimulus, etc and the global economy is getting very weak, on a technical level, gold finally broke it's all time high from 2011, so I expect this breakout to go up around 50% from the previous all time high. My favorite ETF for gold is GLD because it is heavily traded and very liquid.
The custodian for GLD is HSBC... Fitch revised their outlook to negative from stable in April. Counter party risk?
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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000
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

zaboomafoozarg wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:12 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pmAnother is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.
That's why I just buy ancient gold (or electrum, the natural silver/gold mix). Croesus and the Lydians aren't going to mint any more coins since Cyrus and the Persians destroyed them.

This hekte's only 2.4g, but I eventually want to get a full stater of about 11g. Someday...
What are the spreads like versus commodity gold?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.

I'm sure that at current prices for gold (and silver, which has gone up considerably too), miners around the world are doing their best to ramp up production.
I guess a better comparison might be an artist who's still living (Banksy, Damien Hirst come to mind). But then again, those dude are gonna die, gold miners live on. Still, there's only a finite amount of gold that can be mined. Are there estimates about that, I wonder, and is that priced in? Or perhaps what's priced in is the projection for how much gold will be mined each year in the future? Hmnn.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.

I'm sure that at current prices for gold (and silver, which has gone up considerably too), miners around the world are doing their best to ramp up production.
I guess a better comparison might be an artist who's still living (Banksy, Damien Hirst come to mind). But then again, those dude are gonna die, gold miners live on. Still, there's only a finite amount of gold that can be mined. Are there estimates about that, I wonder, and is that priced in? Or perhaps what's priced in is the projection for how much gold will be mined each year in the future? Hmnn.
As prices for gold go up, the supply of gold does as well. Comparatively expensive means of mining it become more viable when the price of gold goes up, similarly to what happens with oil production. Theoretically at least, this should act as a bit of natural impediment to gold's price moving upward too quickly, but of course there could be a significant lag between higher demand leading to higher supply. And there are many other factors at work as well, of course.

I once had a long conversation with a fellow who mined gold for years, and it was very interesting indeed.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

000 wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:19 pmWhat are the spreads like versus commodity gold?
They vary wildly depending on rarity, condition and demand of the coin.

I mean for that hekte I paid... like $6000 an ounce. And since it's electrum (natural gold/silver from river beds) it's only about half gold. But it is quite rare, decent condition and has a good demand since it was made between 630-570 BC in Sardes (now Sart, Turkey), the place where coinage was invented.

On the other hand, for some common Byzantine solidus coins I've managed to get down to about $2000 an ounce for about 95% gold.

However, I don't buy them for the gold value at all and I never really think about them in that context (other than threads like this :D )
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