Gold continues to soar!

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jason2459
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

zaboomafoozarg wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:04 pm
000 wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:19 pmWhat are the spreads like versus commodity gold?
They vary wildly depending on rarity, condition and demand of the coin.

I mean for that hekte I paid... like $6000 an ounce. And since it's electrum (natural gold/silver from river beds) it's only about half gold. But it is quite rare, decent condition and has a good demand since it was made between 630-570 BC in Sardes (now Sart, Turkey), the place where coinage was invented.

On the other hand, for some common Byzantine solidus coins I've managed to get down to about $2000 an ounce for about 95% gold.

However, I don't buy them for the gold value at all and I never really think about them in that context (other than threads like this :D )
Any resources to read up more on this. This would interest me.
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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

jason2459 wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:07 pmAny resources to read up more on this. This would interest me.
A couple online forums I use are Cointalk and /r/AncientCoins.

I also liked Wayne G. Sayles' intro books, the Ancient Coin Collecting series for an overview when I was starting out.

Or if you just want to look at what's available, a good online store with fair prices and dealers is VCoins. There's also a number of reputable auction sites throughout the US and Europe. The one I've used most is CNG Coins. Auctions are usually cheaper so I usually use them instead of buying from dealers, but sometimes I see something I really want and buy it from the dealer directly.

Also, it's best to avoid eBay at first. A lot of obvious sellers of fakes, but it takes time and study to learn to spot them. At least VCoins dealers, CNG Coins and other reputable auction sites give the lifetime return option in case the authenticity of a coin is later questioned.
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jason2459
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Very cool. Thanks.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by cobra911 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking. Jean-Michel Basquiat’s painting "Boy and Dog in a Johnnnypump" fetched over $100 million, yet you can't eat it. I guess both Basquiat's paintings and gold are 1) rare and 2) desired. Is that it, is that the answer? I dunno. I forgot the question.
One difference is that paintings aren't fungible.
Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.

I'm sure that at current prices for gold (and silver, which has gone up considerably too), miners around the world are doing their best to ramp up production.
That's a major understatement... Many Miner stocks have moved significantly higher ( %) than gold or GLD. That's the place to be per Doug Casey :moneybag
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

cobra911 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:24 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:41 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:30 pm
000 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:57 pm Both of these companies have earnings. Gold has none. It is just a metal that sits there.
What's the difference between a painting by a famous artist and gold? They both just "sit there" relatively speaking. Jean-Michel Basquiat’s painting "Boy and Dog in a Johnnnypump" fetched over $100 million, yet you can't eat it. I guess both Basquiat's paintings and gold are 1) rare and 2) desired. Is that it, is that the answer? I dunno. I forgot the question.
One difference is that paintings aren't fungible.
Another is that Monet isn't going to be producing any more works. There is admittedly a finite amount of gold on the planet, but few dispute that considerably more can be mined through various means than is in the possession of human beings.

I'm sure that at current prices for gold (and silver, which has gone up considerably too), miners around the world are doing their best to ramp up production.
That's a major understatement... Many Miner stocks have moved significantly higher ( %) than gold or GLD. That's the place to be per Doug Casey :moneybag
Yes, gold miners appear to either outperform or underperform gold itself. Today is an underperformance. -3.92% gold vs -6.21% RING gold mining ETF. My gold mining stock, Barrick, is taking a 7% tumble. Best enjoyed with a glass of chardonnay.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:37 am
cobra911 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:24 pm Many Miner stocks have moved significantly higher ( %) than gold or GLD. That's the place to be per Doug Casey :moneybag
Yes, gold miners appear to either outperform or underperform gold itself. Today is an underperformance. -3.92% gold vs -6.21% RING gold mining ETF. My gold mining stock, Barrick, is taking a 7% tumble. Best enjoyed with a glass of chardonnay.
If Gold is priced based on expectations of future inflation, then Gold miners are priced based on expectations of future expectations of future inflation.

No thanks.
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jason2459
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Looks like you need a free falling thread now. :shock:
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

jason2459 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:05 pm Looks like you need a free falling thread now. :shock:
I'm hoping one of the Gold permabears will create one.

Then maybe one day I will log on to bogleheads.org and see the four soar/free fall threads all clumped together. :D
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

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jason2459 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:05 pm Looks like you need a free falling thread now. :shock:
All good things must come to an end.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

If you turn your phone over it looks like it's still going up.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

000 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:04 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:37 am
cobra911 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:24 pm Many Miner stocks have moved significantly higher ( %) than gold or GLD. That's the place to be per Doug Casey :moneybag
Yes, gold miners appear to either outperform or underperform gold itself. Today is an underperformance. -3.92% gold vs -6.21% RING gold mining ETF. My gold mining stock, Barrick, is taking a 7% tumble. Best enjoyed with a glass of chardonnay.
If Gold is priced based on expectations of future inflation, then Gold miners are priced based on expectations of future expectations of future inflation.

No thanks.
Barrick Gold is -9.30%. Aren't you sad you don't have a piece of that action?
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willthrill81
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Even with today's sharp decline, GLD is still up 32% YTD.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by alfaspider »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:53 pm Even with today's sharp decline, GLD is still up 32% YTD.
So what? Amazon stock is up 68% YTD.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:58 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:53 pm Even with today's sharp decline, GLD is still up 32% YTD.
So what? Amazon stock is up 68% YTD.
Indeed. I was merely pointing out that the 'See?!? Gold is going down, so anyone who owns gold is foolish' sentiment that seems to be present in various threads today is perhaps unwarranted.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by alfaspider »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:08 pm
alfaspider wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:58 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:53 pm Even with today's sharp decline, GLD is still up 32% YTD.
So what? Amazon stock is up 68% YTD.
Indeed. I was merely pointing out that the 'See?!? Gold is going down, so anyone who owns gold is foolish' sentiment that seems to be present in various threads today is perhaps unwarranted.
I think it's more that it's continued to show itself to be a volatile asset (up or down). The argument to hold gold usually boils down to stability, but what's the use when it behaves like a tech stock?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:13 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:08 pm
alfaspider wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:58 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:53 pm Even with today's sharp decline, GLD is still up 32% YTD.
So what? Amazon stock is up 68% YTD.
Indeed. I was merely pointing out that the 'See?!? Gold is going down, so anyone who owns gold is foolish' sentiment that seems to be present in various threads today is perhaps unwarranted.
I think it's more that it's continued to show itself to be a volatile asset (up or down). The argument to hold gold usually boils down to stability, but what's the use when it behaves like a tech stock?
It's super volitile, and perhaps like a hot sauce concentrate, "a dab will do ya"? Water it down with another less volatile asset.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by unclescrooge »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:58 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:53 pm Even with today's sharp decline, GLD is still up 32% YTD.
So what? Amazon stock is up 68% YTD.
So what? Tesla is up 228% :mrgreen:
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

This thread should have been titled "Gold continues to act about like you'd expect"
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by columbia »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:14 am This thread should have been titled "Gold continues to act about like you'd expect"
Is it? It dropped that much because _______?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

columbia wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:26 am
firebirdparts wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:14 am This thread should have been titled "Gold continues to act about like you'd expect"
Is it? It dropped that much because _______?
Exactly.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by columbia »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:54 am
columbia wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:26 am
firebirdparts wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:14 am This thread should have been titled "Gold continues to act about like you'd expect"
Is it? It dropped that much because _______?
Exactly.

I guess it's exciting to own, so I suppose that's a plus.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by DPEMD »

I am looking at buying gold coins from www.apmex.com. Does anyone have experience with them? Does anyone prefer a different online source? Thanks in advance.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

DPEMD wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:01 am I am looking at buying gold coins from www.apmex.com. Does anyone have experience with them? Does anyone prefer a different online source? Thanks in advance.
I've bought from both JM Bullion and SD Bullion. Both have been top notch dealers. I've heard great things about APMEX too. Price out what you want among the three of them, and buy from whomever gives you the best price at that moment in time. None are always cheapest in my experience.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by unclescrooge »

DPEMD wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:01 am I am looking at buying gold coins from www.apmex.com. Does anyone have experience with them? Does anyone prefer a different online source? Thanks in advance.
I used them in 2005 and 2006 to buy gold coins. Excellent experience.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Gold -0.99% slid with nominal bonds, while TIPS held steady.

I remember someone jokingly proposed a 50% QQQ / 50% RING portfolio. What would you name that portfolio? Gimme something with a ring to it.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:25 pm I remember someone jokingly proposed a 50% QQQ / 50% RING portfolio. What would you name that portfolio? Gimme something with a ring to it.
“Fool’s Gold” portfolio?
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willthrill81
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

The dollar index rising could be part of the reason for gold's two day tumble. But no one knows for sure. Everyone has their own reasons.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

I was surprised to see etfdb.com has a Will Gold Surpass the $3,000 Price Mark? article on their front page today.

Seems like they missed the frenzy??
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:27 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:25 pm I remember someone jokingly proposed a 50% QQQ / 50% RING portfolio. What would you name that portfolio? Gimme something with a ring to it.
“Fool’s Gold” portfolio?
Love it! Bonus points for being a classic Stone Roses song from 1989.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Gold is up, dollar is slightly down, as are TIPS and nominal bonds. Gold's inverse correlation to the dollar is expected, but inverse against TIPS and nominal bonds is interesting. Gold miners recovering some of what they lost two days ago.

***

Gold +1.30%, RING ETF +4.18%

USD down, judging by UUP ETF -0.14%.

TIP ETF -0.15%
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (VGIT) -0.15%
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Anon9001 »

Why focus on short term moves of this asset? This thing is a steal when compared to the huge amount of negative yielding bonds in circulation.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Anon9001 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:26 pm Why focus on short term moves of this asset? This thing is a steal when compared to the huge amount of negative yielding bonds in circulation.
This thread is inspired by the similarly titled "U.S. stocks continue to soar!" which feasts on a kind of blissful myopia. Short term moves are the bread and butter of that thread.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by columbia »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:37 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:26 pm Why focus on short term moves of this asset? This thing is a steal when compared to the huge amount of negative yielding bonds in circulation.
This thread is inspired by the similarly titled "U.S. stocks continue to soar!" which feasts on a kind of blissful myopia. Short term moves are the bread and butter of that thread.
One can buy a gold butter knife.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

No clue how to value gold. It could go up or down. It has definitely performed well versus equities (S&P500).
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm No clue how to value gold.
I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:50 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm No clue how to value gold.
I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:50 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm No clue how to value gold.
I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by Mandalorian »

Good discussion about gold by Ben Felix today on his podcast. https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/111
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:50 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm No clue how to value gold.
I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
That's probably the best approach for those who are holding a gold ETF.

I'm not selling the 3% of our net worth that's in physical gold and silver unless we absolutely have to. It's our 'insurance against the unknown', as David Stein puts it.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:51 pm That's probably the best approach for those who are holding a gold ETF.
There have been some great rebalance trades lately. :mrgreen:
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:50 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm No clue how to value gold.
I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover. It just returned to 2011 levels.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by 000 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover.
Did you see that on page 1 of this thread market timer posted a possible model for Gold's valuation based on the real interest rate?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:50 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:30 pm No clue how to value gold.
I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover. It just returned to 2011 levels.
It almost sounds like you want to be a....trend follower. :twisted:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
rockstar
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:50 pm

I'm a bit puzzled how often that topic comes up. While many here use valuation metrics like CAPE to value stocks, they must admit that such metrics are probably only the roughest sort of guide, certainly a very imperfect future performance. Many others on the forum don't really care about such metrics at all when it comes to stocks. It's interesting then to see the number of folks who are looking for some sort of metric to gauge gold's future returns, but perhaps these are the same people who use valuation metrics for stocks. I personally see gold's long-term performance as being a 'good enough' measure of its long-term future performance, but that's just me.
Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover. It just returned to 2011 levels.
It almost sounds like you want to be a....trend follower. :twisted:
I tend to use moving averages to cut losses.
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willthrill81
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:16 pm

Let's say I buy some tomorrow. I'll need to figure out when I'll sell it. Given that there isn't a whole lot of information about gold other than miners, I'd have to use some technical to set a floor, so that I can minimize my future losses.

What's your strategy for selling?
Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover. It just returned to 2011 levels.
It almost sounds like you want to be a....trend follower. :twisted:
I tend to use moving averages to cut losses.
Then there's your answer.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
rockstar
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Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:51 pm

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:02 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover.
Did you see that on page 1 of this thread market timer posted a possible model for Gold's valuation based on the real interest rate?
We're in the middle of a pandemic/recession. I'm really not concerned with interest rates or inflation. Both are near zero. I am concerned with the ridiculous valuations. But I don't sell base on valuation. I sell based on moving averages. Keeps me in the market longer.
rockstar
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

delete. sorry about the double post.
rockstar
Posts: 766
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by rockstar »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:14 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:18 pm

Why not rebalance to a fixed percentage allocation?
The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover. It just returned to 2011 levels.
It almost sounds like you want to be a....trend follower. :twisted:
I tend to use moving averages to cut losses.
Then there's your answer.
But what moving average? I'm looking at 50 and 100 as possibilities.
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willthrill81
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:14 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm

The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover. It just returned to 2011 levels.
It almost sounds like you want to be a....trend follower. :twisted:
I tend to use moving averages to cut losses.
Then there's your answer.
But what moving average? I'm looking at 50 and 100 as possibilities.
50 is pretty short and will result in a lot of trades. The 200 DMA is probably the oldest moving average that's been in use by many since the 1950s at least. I think that it's a pretty good balance between responding to changes in the trend while reducing whipsaws and trades.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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market timer
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Re: Gold continues to soar!

Post by market timer »

rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:16 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:02 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:59 pm The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long it took to recover.
Did you see that on page 1 of this thread market timer posted a possible model for Gold's valuation based on the real interest rate?
We're in the middle of a pandemic/recession. I'm really not concerned with interest rates or inflation. Both are near zero. I am concerned with the ridiculous valuations. But I don't sell base on valuation. I sell based on moving averages. Keeps me in the market longer.
The pandemic/recession is the reason why interest rates are low and gold is high. Given the economic outlook, gold's valuation is not ridiculous--it's actually right in line with what one would predict given today's interest rates.
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