"Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

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Taylor Larimore
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"Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."

"Value stocks have just gotten trounced, and growth has actually held up pretty well, and the performance from overseas growth stocks has actually been comparable to the U.S. market."

"The other thing with small caps is they tend to have a lot more exposure to things like energy and materials. So, those sorts of sector plays tend not to be great, especially when you go through sort of this energy drawdown that we saw coinciding with the coronavirus sell-off. So, they've had a tough go of it over the past six months and really over the last few years, as well."

"It's been a very, very long slug of just underperforming the U.S. market. It's difficult to justify, understandably, but I always remember that markets can't go one direction forever."

"Myself, I'm just following a strict rebalancing strategy. Like we say every time we sit down for these videos, I'm going to be buying more foreign stock when I go to rebalance my portfolio. Over the long run, the next 20, 30 years, whatever your time horizon is, I think that's going to be a pretty good strategy. It's worked out historically, and I'm very confident that it's going to continue to work out very well in the long-term future."
Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?

Four years ago I wrote my own thought about International stocks Here.

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Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy. For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway."
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by RDA »

Nope. I live here, work here, own property here, and invest the majority of my money here. My foreign funds haven’t been growing much recently, but its a good hedge against future US specific issues that would affect the rest of my portfolio.

Plus, the graph in this post in the recent thread about this shows the long and short of it pretty well - who knows what the next several decades will hold?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=318974#p5343074
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by galeno »

We've been using a world equity portfolio usually tilted to EM and SC since we became Bogleheads in Jan 2006. We will continue to do so. We use VWINX as our benchmark.

Galeno Port 10.5 yr Net Real CAGR = 4.51%

VWINX 10.5 yr Net Real CAGR = 5.00%



Net means extra portfolio costs for interest and dividend withholding taxes. Galeno Port = 0.08%. VWINX = 0.65%

Real means a 10.5 yr CAGR for USD CPI = 1.65%.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Robot Monster »

An Economist article entitled "Should investors diversify away from America?" comes to this surprising conclusion:

Those seeking the ideal balance of risk and reward should prefer to own shares of firms in proportion to their importance to the world economy. But ordinary investors should also like to keep things fairly simple. A good investment rule, then, might be to allocate a third of an equity portfolio to American stocks, a third to an index of stocks listed in other rich countries and a third to emerging-market shares. Such a portfolio would better reflect the make-up of global gdp. It would cap exposure to any one bloc. And it would anticipate a secular shift.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... om-america
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Shael_AT »

Much of my family is outside of the US and I consider them to be "Investor Class, Upper-Middle Class" people. This is across the EU, non-EU and parts of Oceania. Without skipping a beat, the common investment breakdown for them is always 50-70 percent US Total Market or US S&P 500, or for a couple, an elaborate mixture of Mega/Large, Mid Growth and Small Blend - still, US.

It's interesting that across a diverse group of my anecdotal example here, from the UK, Aus, NZ, JP, Sweden, Germany, France, Serbia and Croatia, that's a common trend in personal investments.

Food for thought.

My personal allocation is 70% US, 30% Intl with 50/50 split between ex-us total and ex-us emerging.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by galeno »

Yes I am!

My position has been that USA investors should use 100% USA domicled stocks. Non-USA investors should use a global equity allocation. I now think non-USA investors should MAYBE go 100% USA stocks.

I've been watching a lot of Peter Zeihan and George Friedman during this pandemic. Both of these guys believe the USA needs no other country. And that every other country desperately needs it. This is why we see the USA stepping back from Europe and Asia.

And really. Who else does the Canada/USA/Mexico trading block REALLY need? This trading block can tell the rest of the world to "pound sand".
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by heyyou »

Note that those foreign revenues of our domestic stock companies, are priced by investor sentiment in our own stock markets. I want to own some stock exposure to foreign markets priced elsewhere than just here, so I also own foreign stock index shares.

Years ago, Mexico's telephone company was owned by one guy, an early version of Jeff Bezos, who was benefiting from the tech move from audio to internet service there. Perhaps my portfolio only owned a hundredth of one percent, or less, in that phone company but it was different from my US index holdings where Ma Bell was sickly. Either path is likely good enough for everyone else, but my choice is towards diversifying to avoid the fate of the Japanese investors who were overconfident in the superiority of their own stock market.

Mr. Bogles's opinion was valid for his era (age 45, when founding VG in 1974), due to the investing costs and lack of oversight of the foreign stock markets of his formative years. The costs are now much lower and our foreign stock index fund managers would be amiss if they were investing our money in other stock markets which still have poor oversight.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by tibbitts »

Well, the actual question was whether we're questioning our international stock funds, not international in general (or that's how I read it), and the answer for me is very specific: I took a chance on International Core shortly after it opened, and have been somewhat shocked how closely it has mirrored Total International. Honestly it was kind of a gamble that maybe being a new fund and being able to start with a clean slate, management might eek out a small percent above the index. Hasn't happened. No great loss either, but I'm re-thinking the fund due to the expenses. I won't move the money outside of international, but might redeploy to other international alternatives.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

We held Total Intl. Stock Index at 20% of equities before the meltdown. In my rebalancing activities I stuck to buying Total Stock Market Index exclusivey. So, we are less than 20% Total Intl Stock Index now for the equity portion of our portfolio.

I turn 67 this year, not sure I'll live to see much positive portfolio influence in regards to holding Total Intl Stock Market Index. I am willing to take the risk I might have made a mistake. I don't believe I will be negatively affected by holding so little international. If I am, so be it. For some, hope springs eternal I suppose. Not for me, though. I won't sell what I have, but I doubt I will buy more. Hey, if international takes off, I will benefit some.

Time will tell.

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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by dodecahedron »

I had a modest allocation to international (VTIAX, Vanguard Total International) in my taxable account which was annoying at tax time (high dividend payouts increased my AGI, and a good chunk were nonqualified, and the foreign tax credit was annoying to manage to keep it below the $300 threshold.) Last December, I decided to tax loss harvest some underwater lots in taxable and to donate some appreciated VTIAX lots to my DAF and simplify my future tax returns. I wanted to make my returns simpler and more streamlined in the event my POA needs to take over doing them for me at some point down the road.

I did add a different international fund (Schwab, so no worries about wash sale complications) to my international holdings inside my Roth to roughly but not fully preserve my asset allocation in a way that adds no complexity to future tax returns.

I do feel like having *some* international equity in my Roth is useful inflation protection in the event that the dollar experiences a major fall against other world currencies at some point in the future. Imports are a much larger share of my consumer spending now than they were when my husband and I first set up housekeeping in the late 1970s. Even stuff I buy from American manufacturers often has components sourced from overseas.

My portfolio is pretty conservative and most of my Roth is in intermediate TIPS mutual funds but there is some equity there as well. Mostly domestic, but some international.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by JBTX »

I guess the question is do you think there will ever be limit to the US companies increasing their share of worldwide earnings and equity value? If you think that will go on forever, or at least your lifetime, and willing to bet on that, then I suppose no need for foreign stocks.

Not a bet I'm willing to make.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."
Sorry, but I when I read posts like this I see confirmation bias, home country bias and using past performance to justify an investment strategy.

One of the basis theories that underlies indexing is today we don't know what while be the best performing stocks over the next decade, so rather than trying to pick the winners, the best approach is to buy them all and accept market returns.

From my perspective, the author almost is making the case that rather than buying the S&P 500, a much better strategy over the past decade would have been to buy the FAANG stocks, you would have out-performed. To me that's a slippery slope towards picking individual stocks and/or sectors or active investing. Don't buy the needle, buy the haystack, and not just the US one.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by tennisplyr »

I've never held a lot of international, thanks for sharing Taylor.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by MotoTrojan »

Since becoming a Boglehead I have actually bumped my International allocation from 25% to 35% which I think is a good lifetime sweet spot.

To be frank though this increase came along with moving the majority of those holdings into small/mid-value funds (FNDC & a touch of IVAL), so I am adding diversification in one sense while reducing it in another :twisted:. My portfolio as a whole has moved to tilt further and further towards value as I have learned more, and it seems prudent to counter that by also reducing my US tilt, which frankly has no real logic other than recency bias (at-least value has rationales for long-run outperformance).

I have found that I like being a contrarian investor. I think the hardest problem will be resisting the urge to respond when value & international both outperform together year-after-year :D .
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by midareff »

I am not questioning what I no longer own. After watching x-US under perform at near 7% annually for a decade I decided it was simply too expensive to continue with. I had been near 55/45 as a US/Int mix and have avoided another 9.9% of under international performance in the last twelve months.

Eventually Jack and Warren''s words got to me... I worked here, retired here, live here, eat here and 42% to 44% of the sales of the S&P500 are international so their performance is already sufficiently (for me) tied to the world's economy and prosperity.

I've always found it intriguing that the Efficient Frontier curves always presented to show a sweet spot at near 40% international always have the greatest returns at 100% US and the lowest at 100% International.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by 3funder »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:40 am
Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."
Sorry, but I when I read posts like this I see confirmation bias, home country bias and using past performance to justify an investment strategy.

One of the basis theories that underlies indexing is today we don't know what while be the best performing stocks over the next decade, so rather than trying to pick the winners, the best approach is to buy them all and accept market returns.

From my perspective, the author almost is making the case that rather than buying the S&P 500, a much better strategy over the past decade would have been to buy the FAANG stocks, you would have out-performed. To me that's a slippery slope towards picking individual stocks and/or sectors or active investing. Don't buy the needle, buy the haystack, and not just the US one.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

3funder wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:24 am What was the last book you read? Was it called My Mind?
I don't understand your question nor the book reference (cannot find it on Amazon.ca).

I have read Vanguard's excellent research paper The role of home bias in global asset allocation decisions and I believe I understand my own confirmation bias(es). I'm open to dissenting viewpoints and analyze them to see if I can gain any new understanding. There are many, many topics here regarding whether or not International equity allocations make sense and many entrenched viewpoints. I've posted about this many times that I don't see how passive investing using broad-based indices should be limited to country borders. I'm an advocate that if you are passive investing, then buy the haystack, globally, not just locally.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by 3funder »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:28 am
3funder wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:24 am What was the last book you read? Was it called My Mind?
I don't understand your question nor the book reference (cannot find it on Amazon.ca).
You read my mind (I agree with your post).
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by SevenBridgesRoad »

Following Jack Bogle's advice on simplicity (and your simple, single sentence signature line, Taylor: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success - Jack Bogle"), my one fund portfolio is a Target Date Fund, VTINX (Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund). It is a fund-of-funds, and includes international. I chose it because of the AA, which is good enough for me and let's me sleep well at night. Vanguard does the rebalancing, so I never worry about it. So, to answer your question, no, I'm not questioning my foreign stock funds.

For those interested in the simplicity of a single fund portfolio, you might review "The One-Fund Portfolio as a Default Suggestion" thread:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=287967
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by pokebowl »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:49 am Since becoming a Boglehead I have actually bumped my International allocation from 25% to 35% which I think is a good lifetime sweet spot.

To be frank though this increase came along with moving the majority of those holdings into small/mid-value funds (FNDC & a touch of IVAL), so I am adding diversification in one sense while reducing it in another :twisted:. My portfolio as a whole has moved to tilt further and further towards value as I have learned more, and it seems prudent to counter that by also reducing my US tilt, which frankly has no real logic other than recency bias (at-least value has rationales for long-run outperformance).

I have found that I like being a contrarian investor. I think the hardest problem will be resisting the urge to respond when value & international both outperform together year-after-year :D .
Curious on your thoughts on the Avantis International ETF (AVDV) which would meet your value tilt goal better than FNDC. Initially when it was discussed on this form it only had 35M under its management, that has since grown to over 150M over the last couple of months.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by longinvest »

SevenBridgesRoad wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:08 am Following Jack Bogle's advice on simplicity (and your simple, single sentence signature line, Taylor: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success - Jack Bogle"), my one fund portfolio is a Target Date Fund, VTINX (Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund). It is a fund-of-funds, and includes international. I chose it because of the AA, which is good enough for me and let's me sleep well at night. Vanguard does the rebalancing, so I never worry about it. So, to answer your question, no, I'm not questioning my foreign stock funds.
I like this.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by MotoTrojan »

pokebowl wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:57 am
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:49 am Since becoming a Boglehead I have actually bumped my International allocation from 25% to 35% which I think is a good lifetime sweet spot.

To be frank though this increase came along with moving the majority of those holdings into small/mid-value funds (FNDC & a touch of IVAL), so I am adding diversification in one sense while reducing it in another :twisted:. My portfolio as a whole has moved to tilt further and further towards value as I have learned more, and it seems prudent to counter that by also reducing my US tilt, which frankly has no real logic other than recency bias (at-least value has rationales for long-run outperformance).

I have found that I like being a contrarian investor. I think the hardest problem will be resisting the urge to respond when value & international both outperform together year-after-year :D .
Curious on your thoughts on the Avantis International ETF (AVDV) which would meet your value tilt goal better than FNDC. Initially when it was discussed on this form it only had 35M under its management, that has since grown to over 150M over the last couple of months.
This is something I think about a lot; I could get similar exposure at a lower cost by holding AVDV and something more broad (VSS or just Total International) but there is something that attracts me to the fundamental weighting scheme and I didn't want to completely exclude any growth exposure abroad (since in the US I have a 35% S&P500 core holding). My irrational liking of the fundamental scheme is certainly the weakest link in my portfolio construction, but the total expense it saves me from doing something like AVDV/VSS split is trivial and it is less complex. I also like to have some diversity in how I weight value (Avantis weights using P/B and profitability, Alpha Architect uses TEV/EBIT and then screens profitability after, RAFI uses dividends/cashflow/sales).

Overall I really like the Avantis scheme, hence using AVUV; I like that they maintain more constant exposure than a quarterly rebalancing index, they use techniques to reduce negative momentum, they include profitability, and they don't market-cap weight. I would like it even more if they used TEV/EBIT or even a composite of P/B & P/E, but you can't have everything (hence my adoption of the Alpha Architect products to get unique value exposures).

For reference I am currently:
35% S&P500
20% AVUV (some VSIAX in 401k)
10% QVAL
30% FNDC (some VTIAX in 401k)
5% IVAL

Weighted ER of around 25bp currently.

Looking to keep building QVAL/IVAL until they are 15% & 10% respectively (will take from AVUV & FNDC pots).
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Valuethinker »

galeno wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:22 pm Yes I am!

My position has been that USA investors should use 100% USA domicled stocks. Non-USA investors should use a global equity allocation. I now think non-USA investors should MAYBE go 100% USA stocks.

I've been watching a lot of Peter Zeihan and George Friedman during this pandemic. Both of these guys believe the USA needs no other country. And that every other country desperately needs it. This is why we see the USA stepping back from Europe and Asia.

And really. Who else does the Canada/USA/Mexico trading block REALLY need? This trading block can tell the rest of the world to "pound sand".
1. The current US Administration has renegotiated NAFTA, believing it to be bad for the USA. The new deal is not signed, AFAIK. In a world where capital, goods & viruses move freely internationally, your rhetorical question just falls apart. What happens if US farmers have no foreign markets to buy their production? Let them eat High Fructose Corn Syrup?

2. [obvious point about current conditions, but it's going to derail the conversation]

3. I don't know who Peter Zeihan and George Friedman are, in fact I don't care.

4. It's foolish for a non-US based investor to have home country bias. But it's also foolish to have a US-bias. Global weighting is the way to go.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Valuethinker »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:28 am
3funder wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:24 am What was the last book you read? Was it called My Mind?
I don't understand your question nor the book reference (cannot find it on Amazon.ca).

I have read Vanguard's excellent research paper The role of home bias in global asset allocation decisions and I believe I understand my own confirmation bias(es). I'm open to dissenting viewpoints and analyze them to see if I can gain any new understanding. There are many, many topics here regarding whether or not International equity allocations make sense and many entrenched viewpoints. I've posted about this many times that I don't see how passive investing using broad-based indices should be limited to country borders. I'm an advocate that if you are passive investing, then buy the haystack, globally, not just locally.
Thank you, again, for injecting sanity.

Home country bias in a Canadian? You basically wind up owning 5 banks + some oil & gas companies (80% of the portfolio is financials + natural resources). And I know a lot of Canadians (older, usually) with portfolios that look exactly like that. (I am sure that is why Shopify is on such a crazy multiple - it's the Blackberry/ Nortel effect of 2000+ writ large i.e. the only tech stock).
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:52 am Home country bias in a Canadian? You basically wind up owning 5 banks + some oil & gas companies (80% of the portfolio is financials + natural resources). And I know a lot of Canadians (older, usually) with portfolios that look exactly like that. (I am sure that is why Shopify is on such a crazy multiple - it's the Blackberry/ Nortel effect of 2000+ writ large i.e. the only tech stock).
FWIW you sector statistics aren't up-to-date. The S&P/TSX is still overweight Financials (32.0% as of March 31, 2020) much like the S&P 500 is overweight Information Technology (25.5% as of March 31, 2020). Current data is shown in Canadian-US investing differences - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki.

But your key point is specifically why being aware of home country bias is important. While both the Canadian and US broad-based indices have some concentration issues, having appropriate allocations helps to both balances out the overweight sectors and reduce the concentration issue.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Valuethinker »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:23 am
Valuethinker wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:52 am Home country bias in a Canadian? You basically wind up owning 5 banks + some oil & gas companies (80% of the portfolio is financials + natural resources). And I know a lot of Canadians (older, usually) with portfolios that look exactly like that. (I am sure that is why Shopify is on such a crazy multiple - it's the Blackberry/ Nortel effect of 2000+ writ large i.e. the only tech stock).
FWIW you sector statistics aren't up-to-date. The S&P/TSX is still overweight Financials (32.0% as of March 31, 2020) much like the S&P 500 is overweight Information Technology (25.5% as of March 31, 2020). Current data is shown in Canadian-US investing differences - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki.

But your key point is specifically why being aware of home country bias is important. While both the Canadian and US broad-based indices have some concentration issues, having appropriate allocations helps to both balances out the overweight sectors and reduce the concentration issue.
Thanks for the update.

I'd have to look at the ETFs to see why I thought that. Not sure I totally agreed w the S&P classifications. Especially re Industrials.

It is reasoning by false analogy to say that the concentration in the US tech sector is equivalent. This includes 6 of the world's largest companies by market cap.

That's not the situation with the Csnsdian index where the concentration is around a group of mostly oil sands related stocks plus 5 big banks (middling by world standards). Price of oil moves and the Canadisn index moves with it (so does the CAD dollar).

It is very different from having 3% of your portfolio in Amazon or Apple or Google or Facebook or J&J. Which are huge diversified businesses w global businesses.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by reln »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."

"Value stocks have just gotten trounced, and growth has actually held up pretty well, and the performance from overseas growth stocks has actually been comparable to the U.S. market."

"The other thing with small caps is they tend to have a lot more exposure to things like energy and materials. So, those sorts of sector plays tend not to be great, especially when you go through sort of this energy drawdown that we saw coinciding with the coronavirus sell-off. So, they've had a tough go of it over the past six months and really over the last few years, as well."

"It's been a very, very long slug of just underperforming the U.S. market. It's difficult to justify, understandably, but I always remember that markets can't go one direction forever."

"Myself, I'm just following a strict rebalancing strategy. Like we say every time we sit down for these videos, I'm going to be buying more foreign stock when I go to rebalance my portfolio. Over the long run, the next 20, 30 years, whatever your time horizon is, I think that's going to be a pretty good strategy. It's worked out historically, and I'm very confident that it's going to continue to work out very well in the long-term future."
Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?

Four years ago I wrote my own thought about International stocks Here.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy. For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway."
I love Jack Bogle. He was many great things but he was not a fortune teller; nor was he a sophisticated researcher. He was a highly ethical and driven man. But, I would not use his "no more than 20% in international" or his overzealous faith for US enterprise as a source to inform your asset allocation; for that purpose I would only use academic research, not a randomly selected number out of anyone's hat. Let the hate mail pour in.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Robot Monster »

reln wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:13 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."

"Value stocks have just gotten trounced, and growth has actually held up pretty well, and the performance from overseas growth stocks has actually been comparable to the U.S. market."

"The other thing with small caps is they tend to have a lot more exposure to things like energy and materials. So, those sorts of sector plays tend not to be great, especially when you go through sort of this energy drawdown that we saw coinciding with the coronavirus sell-off. So, they've had a tough go of it over the past six months and really over the last few years, as well."

"It's been a very, very long slug of just underperforming the U.S. market. It's difficult to justify, understandably, but I always remember that markets can't go one direction forever."

"Myself, I'm just following a strict rebalancing strategy. Like we say every time we sit down for these videos, I'm going to be buying more foreign stock when I go to rebalance my portfolio. Over the long run, the next 20, 30 years, whatever your time horizon is, I think that's going to be a pretty good strategy. It's worked out historically, and I'm very confident that it's going to continue to work out very well in the long-term future."
Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?

Four years ago I wrote my own thought about International stocks Here.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy. For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway."
I love Jack Bogle. He was many great things but he was not a fortune teller; nor was he a sophisticated researcher. He was a highly ethical and driven man. But, I would not use his "no more than 20% in international" or his overzealous faith for US enterprise as a source to inform your asset allocation; for that purpose I would only use academic research, not a randomly selected number out of anyone's hat. Let the hate mail pour in.
Oh no you di-int!

Just kidding. I do find it interesting "Bogle said recently that if he were to invest internationally, it would be in emerging markets, but not more than 5 percent" but sadly don't hear a lot about people taking a VWO allocation based on this.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/vanguar ... -bias.html
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Valuethinker wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:44 am I'd have to look at the ETFs to see why I thought that. Not sure I totally agreed w the S&P classifications. Especially re Industrials.
The underlying source is https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indic ... -500/#data and https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indic ... ndex/#data.

S&P has updated them to Jun 30, 2020. Financials in Canadian index now 28.9% and Information Technology in US index now 27.7%.
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columbia
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by columbia »

reln wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:13 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."

"Value stocks have just gotten trounced, and growth has actually held up pretty well, and the performance from overseas growth stocks has actually been comparable to the U.S. market."

"The other thing with small caps is they tend to have a lot more exposure to things like energy and materials. So, those sorts of sector plays tend not to be great, especially when you go through sort of this energy drawdown that we saw coinciding with the coronavirus sell-off. So, they've had a tough go of it over the past six months and really over the last few years, as well."

"It's been a very, very long slug of just underperforming the U.S. market. It's difficult to justify, understandably, but I always remember that markets can't go one direction forever."

"Myself, I'm just following a strict rebalancing strategy. Like we say every time we sit down for these videos, I'm going to be buying more foreign stock when I go to rebalance my portfolio. Over the long run, the next 20, 30 years, whatever your time horizon is, I think that's going to be a pretty good strategy. It's worked out historically, and I'm very confident that it's going to continue to work out very well in the long-term future."
Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?

Four years ago I wrote my own thought about International stocks Here.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy. For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway."
I love Jack Bogle. He was many great things but he was not a fortune teller; nor was he a sophisticated researcher. He was a highly ethical and driven man. But, I would not use his "no more than 20% in international" or his overzealous faith for US enterprise as a source to inform your asset allocation; for that purpose I would only use academic research, not a randomly selected number out of anyone's hat. Let the hate mail pour in.
Hate mail? Another adult wouldn’t care if that’s your choice.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by yules »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."

"Value stocks have just gotten trounced, and growth has actually held up pretty well, and the performance from overseas growth stocks has actually been comparable to the U.S. market."

"The other thing with small caps is they tend to have a lot more exposure to things like energy and materials. So, those sorts of sector plays tend not to be great, especially when you go through sort of this energy drawdown that we saw coinciding with the coronavirus sell-off. So, they've had a tough go of it over the past six months and really over the last few years, as well."

"It's been a very, very long slug of just underperforming the U.S. market. It's difficult to justify, understandably, but I always remember that markets can't go one direction forever."

"Myself, I'm just following a strict rebalancing strategy. Like we say every time we sit down for these videos, I'm going to be buying more foreign stock when I go to rebalance my portfolio. Over the long run, the next 20, 30 years, whatever your time horizon is, I think that's going to be a pretty good strategy. It's worked out historically, and I'm very confident that it's going to continue to work out very well in the long-term future."
Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?

Four years ago I wrote my own thought about International stocks Here.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy. For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway."
I don’t even understand the point of this post. If you actually read to the end of the Morningstar article, the comment is that Daniel, despite the lagging ex-US market is rebalancing vis-à-vis buying *more* ex-US stocks. And then there’s the customary Jack Bogle quote about *not* needing ex-US stocks. This post seems to be confused about its thesis.

And, honestly, with all due respect to Jack Bible, he is no longer with us and the world is different than when he invested. Not sure why his opinion—to be sure, not needing international is an opinion of his, not a fact like lower expenses means more returns—should continue to be considered a gold standard.

Yules
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by JamesDean44 »

yules wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:00 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:56 am Bogleheads:

Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions:
"They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what we've seen over the past 10, 11 years. Foreign stocks have generally lagged their U.S. counterparts pretty broadly."

"In the U.S. we've got the Microsofts, the Apples, the Netflix that have had really strong performance over the past decade. They're U.S. companies, they don't exist overseas, so that's been a big part of the gap between the U.S. and foreign markets."

"Value stocks have just gotten trounced, and growth has actually held up pretty well, and the performance from overseas growth stocks has actually been comparable to the U.S. market."

"The other thing with small caps is they tend to have a lot more exposure to things like energy and materials. So, those sorts of sector plays tend not to be great, especially when you go through sort of this energy drawdown that we saw coinciding with the coronavirus sell-off. So, they've had a tough go of it over the past six months and really over the last few years, as well."

"It's been a very, very long slug of just underperforming the U.S. market. It's difficult to justify, understandably, but I always remember that markets can't go one direction forever."

"Myself, I'm just following a strict rebalancing strategy. Like we say every time we sit down for these videos, I'm going to be buying more foreign stock when I go to rebalance my portfolio. Over the long run, the next 20, 30 years, whatever your time horizon is, I think that's going to be a pretty good strategy. It's worked out historically, and I'm very confident that it's going to continue to work out very well in the long-term future."
Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?

Four years ago I wrote my own thought about International stocks Here.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy. For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway."
I don’t even understand the point of this post. If you actually read to the end of the Morningstar article, the comment is that Daniel, despite the lagging ex-US market is rebalancing vis-à-vis buying *more* ex-US stocks. And then there’s the customary Jack Bogle quote about *not* needing ex-US stocks. This post seems to be confused about its thesis.

And, honestly, with all due respect to Jack Bible, he is no longer with us and the world is different than when he invested. Not sure why his opinion—to be sure, not needing international is an opinion of his, not a fact like lower expenses means more returns—should continue to be considered a gold standard.

Yules
Good points.
02nz
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by 02nz »

yules wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:00 pm And, honestly, with all due respect to Jack Bible, he is no longer with us and the world is different than when he invested. Not sure why his opinion—to be sure, not needing international is an opinion of his, not a fact like lower expenses means more returns—should continue to be considered a gold standard.
Freudian slip? :happy

I tend to agree, the anti-international crowd treat Bogle's and Buffett's opinions on this a bit too much as the word of God.
milktoast
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by milktoast »

It's been a rough decade. But I'm staying with 28% of equities in VTIAX (total international) and the rest in VTSAX (total US).

Honestly, I'm questioning why my US stocks aren't under performing places like New Zealand which is back to packed stadiums full of cheering fans. Feels like a bubble.
yules
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by yules »

02nz wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:34 pm
yules wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:00 pm And, honestly, with all due respect to Jack Bible, he is no longer with us and the world is different than when he invested. Not sure why his opinion—to be sure, not needing international is an opinion of his, not a fact like lower expenses means more returns—should continue to be considered a gold standard.
Freudian slip? :happy

I tend to agree, the anti-international crowd treat Bogle's and Buffett's opinions on this a bit too much as the word of God.
HAHAHAHAHA! More slip of my finger + autocorrect! :P

Just want to be clear that I was in no way mocking Jack Bogle (I made sure autocorrect didn’t change it this time!), for he was revolutionary in his work to create index funds.

But it is a funny typo, so I’m going to leave it there.

Yules
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Dottie57 »

Nope, I am not question my international funds. I look at the non-financial news and see the world changing.
Neus
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Neus »

Yes i do

I plan to reallocate all of my Total World into SP500 only for stock allocation

The reason is:

1) Expense: 0.2% vs 0.04% for SP500, why pay more for added diversification i don't really need, it's just like paying much more for extra coverage insurance

2) Currency Risk: Much of the international stock gain are wiped out by their weakening currency

3) Value trap: I just learn that VALUE stock turns to be MORE RISKY than growth stock
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by alpha88 »

No - I've kept my AA at 75% USA / 25% World.

I'm not too concerned about the relative under performance compared to US mega cap in the last decade. I can't predict which sector / region / slice will do best next 10 years. I think holding international also helps protect against weak dollar.
slowbutsteady
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by slowbutsteady »

RDA wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:40 pm Nope. I live here, work here, own property here, and invest the majority of my money here. My foreign funds haven’t been growing much recently, but its a good hedge against future US specific issues that would affect the rest of my portfolio.

Plus, the graph in this post in the recent thread about this shows the long and short of it pretty well - who knows what the next several decades will hold?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=318974#p5343074
+1 as well as for others echoing the same sentiment. The geo diversification is crucial for us.

No questioning here. 35% of total portfolio in international (~39% of equities). Been that way and will stay that way for a looong time.
The tortoise wins every time I read that story.
bacon4retirement
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by bacon4retirement »

dodecahedron wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:29 pm I had a modest allocation to international (VTIAX, Vanguard Total International) in my taxable account which was annoying at tax time (high dividend payouts increased my AGI, and a good chunk were nonqualified, and the foreign tax credit was annoying to manage to keep it below the $300 threshold.)
Does using Form 1116 add enough complication that exceeding $300 ($600 MFJ) in foreign tax credits is a bad idea? I just moved my international investments to my taxable account based on the wiki advice at https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-eff ... account.
sunny skies
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by sunny skies »

I also put my foreign holdings in my taxable due to the wiki recommendation. I haven't had over 300 in dividends yet to need to complete 1116, but wondering the same thing. I think it may reduce the taxable benefit once you reach that threshold.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Noobvestor »

Nope. Not questioning my foreign stock funds. If anything, given the current pandemic and unrest in the US, I'm glad to be globally diversified. Indeed, over recent weeks international has begun to outpace US (both developed and emerging markets). I remain 50/50 and glad of it.

Jack Bogle (2012): "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it's international. I want you to think it through for yourself."
Last edited by Noobvestor on Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Noobvestor »

Also, Taylor, about a decade ago you wrote a post I refer back to regularly - a powerful example of mean reversion.

Here's the link: viewtopic.php?t=67882

I don't know what others took away from it, but I took this: what goes up in one decade may well do very poorly in the next, and what does poorly may do quite well. You taught me a valuable lesson about staying the course and not chasing winners. US-oriented investors would do well to take your advice from that post to heart and not go heavily into US stocks, particularly large/growth/tech, IMHO. This is not a time to chase the winners of the 2010s, but to remain diversified, because who knows what this decade will bring. Diversification is the only free lunch.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by asif408 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:51 pm An Economist article entitled "Should investors diversify away from America?" comes to this surprising conclusion:

Those seeking the ideal balance of risk and reward should prefer to own shares of firms in proportion to their importance to the world economy. But ordinary investors should also like to keep things fairly simple. A good investment rule, then, might be to allocate a third of an equity portfolio to American stocks, a third to an index of stocks listed in other rich countries and a third to emerging-market shares. Such a portfolio would better reflect the make-up of global gdp. It would cap exposure to any one bloc. And it would anticipate a secular shift.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... om-america
This is good in theory, and I've thought about suggesting it to others, but I'm not sure in real life people could actually stick with it. Look how many people are having trouble here even sticking with 20-30% in foreign stocks right now because of the last decade of performance. Imagine if you suggest to them now to up that allocation to 2/3 international stocks, with half of that in emerging markets. Pretty tough sell right now.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Gufomel »

It seems more reasonable to me that I should be concerned about the future returns of the outsized 70% US portion of my stock allocation that has been skyrocketing largely on the back of 5 companies, rather than the undersized 30% International portion.

I have no idea what the future holds. But it’s undeniable that the risk and return of my portfolio is weighted heavily towards the US, and that’s with a moderately high (compared to many on this forum) 30% International allocation. Being overly concerned about what’s going to happen in the future with International stocks relative to US stocks just seems to be recency bias.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by dodecahedron »

bacon4retirement wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:04 pm
dodecahedron wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:29 pm I had a modest allocation to international (VTIAX, Vanguard Total International) in my taxable account which was annoying at tax time (high dividend payouts increased my AGI, and a good chunk were nonqualified, and the foreign tax credit was annoying to manage to keep it below the $300 threshold.)
Does using Form 1116 add enough complication that exceeding $300 ($600 MFJ) in foreign tax credits is a bad idea? I just moved my international investments to my taxable account based on the wiki advice at https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-eff ... account.
In my case, it was more than just the complication of having to fill out Form 1116. Due to my constellation of circumstances, any amount of foreign tax paid totaling less than $300 resulted in a credit of precisely the full amount of foreign tax paid.

However, if the foreign tax paid exceeded $300, the resulting calculations on Form 1116 would have given me much less than $300 in foreign tax credit. So there was a financial reason (as well as a complexity reason) to manage the consequences of holding VTIAX in taxable.

I am really trying to massively simplify/streamline my financial and tax life. Life is too short for me (and/or my eventual designated POA/executor) to spend time messing with Form 1116.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Robot Monster »

asif408 wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:59 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:51 pm An Economist article entitled "Should investors diversify away from America?" comes to this surprising conclusion:

Those seeking the ideal balance of risk and reward should prefer to own shares of firms in proportion to their importance to the world economy. But ordinary investors should also like to keep things fairly simple. A good investment rule, then, might be to allocate a third of an equity portfolio to American stocks, a third to an index of stocks listed in other rich countries and a third to emerging-market shares. Such a portfolio would better reflect the make-up of global gdp. It would cap exposure to any one bloc. And it would anticipate a secular shift.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... om-america
This is good in theory, and I've thought about suggesting it to others, but I'm not sure in real life people could actually stick with it. Look how many people are having trouble here even sticking with 20-30% in foreign stocks right now because of the last decade of performance. Imagine if you suggest to them now to up that allocation to 2/3 international stocks, with half of that in emerging markets. Pretty tough sell right now.
I would say something like, "Despite the fact U.S. equities have outperformed international for X years, some people still contend that it's better to spread your eggs out than concentrate them in one (U.S.) basket, even if it's the best basket. However, others prefer to take their chances on what they see is the best basket, including Warren Buffet and Jack Bogle. You could really go either way on this."
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by Anon9001 »

Regardless of the merits of international equities one should not abandon a idea because it has poor past performance. The key word is past performance. Japan had impressive returns before going belly up in 1980s that I would be tempted if I lived there at the time to not even have any Ex-Japan investments.
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by asif408 »

Anon9001 wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:41 am Regardless of the merits of international equities one should not abandon a idea because it has poor past performance. The key word is past performance. Japan had impressive returns before going belly up in 1980s that I would be tempted if I lived there at the time to not even have any Ex-Japan investments.
One less well known statistic is that Nikkei beat the Dow & S&P for 4 straight decades from 1950-1990. Here were the returns by decade:

1950s
Nikkei: 24.0%
S&P: 11.4%

1960s
Nikkei: 5.6%
S&P: 4.7%

1970s
Nikkei: 12.7%
S&P: 1.6%

1980s
Nikkei: 18.6%
S&P: 10.0%

1950-1990:
Nikkei: 16.0%
S&P: 7.4%

So Japanese stocks beat US stocks by 9% CAGR for 4 straight decades and made up 40% of the international index by the late 1980s. As far as I can tell the US has not beaten almost any stock market in the world for 4 straight decades. So it shouldn't surprise anyone looking back to the 1990s that US stocks have outperformed foreign stocks since that time. The US is still catching up to Japan.

You can see it by comparing the performance of the Vanguard European and Pacific funds (of which the Pacific fund is mostly Japan), which started right around the end of Japan's bubble. Europe has lagged by about 3% CAGR since inception in 1990, with a good chunk of that coming in the last decade; but the Pacific fund (which also started in 1990) has lagged by about 7% CAGR: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... &months=36. The Pacific fund was much worse from the get go: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
milktoast
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Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Post by milktoast »

asif408 wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:16 am
So Japanese stocks beat US stocks by 9% CAGR for 4 straight decades and made up 40% of the international index by the late 1980s. As far as I can tell the US has not beaten almost any stock market in the world for 4 straight decades. So it shouldn't surprise anyone looking back to the 1990s that US stocks have outperformed foreign stocks since that time. The US is still catching up to Japan.
Thanks. That's very interesting. Nobody knows the future, but it does make me wonder if the US will experience something similar to Japan with decades of out performance followed by under performance.
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