Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

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ValuationsMatter
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ValuationsMatter »

ilan1h wrote: Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:49 pm I was never spooked by financial disasters and was always buy and hold. This approach served me extremely well for decades. However, when this pandemic started I think that my M.D degree actually hindered rather than helped. Based on the information at the time, I extrapolated a much more severe course to this pandemic ie: a NYC outcome in all large cities. When I got out at a 23% loss I thought I was getting off easy and all the rest of you were crazy to hold. I will admit that I over-reacted but am still amazed that the market is doing this well in the face of what will undoubtedly be very difficult economic times ahead.
The singular thing you didn't account for, in my opinion, was the impact of monetary policy/fiscal stimulus without which the markets would have looked a lot more like the '08 recession. As Buffett stated in his shareholder's meeting, the financial markets were very close to seizing. If they had, we would have seen a cascade of bankruptcies. You were not unwise, again my opinion, to take a defensive position against that possibility. However, after the Fed guaranteed the bond market with QE infinity, it was time to get more aggressive.
Raraculus
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Raraculus »

I'm feeling pretty good!

When the Coronavirus crash happened, I was too afraid to keep holding stocks. At the same time, I was too afraid to sell; how would I know to get back in? :shock: So, I stayed the course in my stock/bond holdings.

I did some TLH'ing for the first time. I did reduce my International Stock exposure in favor of domestic equities. I decided to exchange all of my REIT holdings into stocks/bonds. I continued to make my weekly contributions. Despite these changes, my stock/bond allocation pretty much remained constant.

And to my disbelief and surprise, the stock market made a quick recovery. My net worth has slowly recovered to pre-Coronavirus levels. I must credit the Bogleheads forum for its savvy financial advice, emotional temperament, and overall wisdom of staying the course.

I don't know what the future holds; hopefully the stock market will continue on its bullish path. I will continue to invest and make regular contributions. I will continue to monitor my stock/bond allocations and to optimize for tax efficiency. Here's to more continued success in investing.
Zillions
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Zillions »

minimalistmarc wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:06 am
Zillions wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:49 am I am scared. I believe this is all rampant speculation and "irrational exuberance", similar to the 90s dot com bubble, when everything kept going up and up and up. I don't WANT a repeat of the 90s boom and bust-ups, but I think that all that goes up must come down, unfortunately.
If you are scared then your asset allocation is not right for you.
Markets do go up and down all the time, it’s normal.

You need fewer stocks and more bonds.
I did recently change my AA but I guess my "fear" is more generalized. I think unless you're out of the market 100% it's going to be near impossible to escape a major collapse.
minimalistmarc
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by minimalistmarc »

Zillions wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:22 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:06 am
Zillions wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:49 am I am scared. I believe this is all rampant speculation and "irrational exuberance", similar to the 90s dot com bubble, when everything kept going up and up and up. I don't WANT a repeat of the 90s boom and bust-ups, but I think that all that goes up must come down, unfortunately.
If you are scared then your asset allocation is not right for you.
Markets do go up and down all the time, it’s normal.

You need fewer stocks and more bonds.
I did recently change my AA but I guess my "fear" is more generalized. I think unless you're out of the market 100% it's going to be near impossible to escape a major collapse.
Yea, that’s some pretty major fear you’ve got going there. I’m not sure what to advise for that.
GrowthSeeker
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by GrowthSeeker »

If I had to guess, I would guess that the market will linger between -5% and -15% down from the latest market all time high, and stay in that range for several months. And 6 months from now, it will resume what it was doing before. Until the next legitimate correction.
Lots of small businesses will fail.
Lots of people will find it a better use of their time to get free money instead of going back to work.
Generally, whatever economic activity needs to happen, will happen.
But no one knows nothing, so ...
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you.
lawnboss
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by lawnboss »

I stuck to my AA, but I have decided to tighten my rebalancing bands from 5% to 1%. The actual monetary impact of this is probably borderline inconsequential, but it does make me feel a little better to take a bit of profit off the table after a few good days of market run-up. It's really my same-old same-old IPS, just a bit of additional effort due to more frequent rebalancing. For whatever reason, it does help with the jitters. If things ever start to feel tame again, I may relax back to the 5% bands.
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dziuniek
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by dziuniek »

I imagine re-balancing bands folks are happy as opposed to the quarterly or annual re-balancing folks.
One of these caught some more upside since March.
achillesheel
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by achillesheel »

lawnboss wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:07 pm I stuck to my AA, but I have decided to tighten my rebalancing bands from 5% to 1%. The actual monetary impact of this is probably borderline inconsequential, but it does make me feel a little better to take a bit of profit off the table after a few good days of market run-up. It's really my same-old same-old IPS, just a bit of additional effort due to more frequent rebalancing. For whatever reason, it does help with the jitters. If things ever start to feel tame again, I may relax back to the 5% bands.
Hi Lawnboss - love the username. I'm a younger investor (90/10 in cash), I have settled on a rebalancing band threshold of 2.5%. I did rebalance twice in the recent tumult, once toward equities in March and away about a week ago. So even with a lower threshold I haven't done all that much.
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firebirdparts
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by firebirdparts »

dziuniek wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:15 pm I imagine re-balancing bands folks are happy as opposed to the quarterly or annual re-balancing folks.
One of these caught some more upside since March.
April 1 wasn't a bad time.
A fool and your money are soon partners
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grobertj
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by grobertj »

I see no way that stocks don't drop again. With a pandemic, high unemployment, riots and a likely Biden victory; how can stocks continue to climb? At some point investors will come to their senses.
The only constant is CHANGE!!
minimalistmarc
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by minimalistmarc »

grobertj wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:10 pm I see no way that stocks don't drop again. With a pandemic, high unemployment, riots and a likely Biden victory; how can stocks continue to climb? At some point investors will come to their senses.
Stocks will definitely drop again. They go up and down all the time. Timing it successfully in the long term is almost impossible so chose an asset allocation you can live with (not too high in equities as you are obviously fearful) then buy and hold long term
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dziuniek
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by dziuniek »

grobertj wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:10 pm I see no way that stocks don't drop again. With a pandemic, high unemployment, riots and a likely Biden victory; how can stocks continue to climb? At some point investors will come to their senses.
- Less folks seem to social dsitance and all, so the pandemic seems to be WISHED/WILLED away by some.
- Presidential race - too soon to call.
- Stocks climb a wall of worry, no?
- RE: unemployment - haven't the last few fridays when we got really horrid numbers (prior to last one) made the market go up and up and up and up....

You can easily dispute the points you've made, especially investors coming to their senses. TINA/FOMO ?

Nobody knows nothin'

You can make an educated bet, but that's all it is - a bet.

And let's not confuse outcome with strategy.
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Tamarind
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Tamarind »

I'm pretty sure we're in for another longer dip before covid runs its course. But since my feelings have nothing to do with what my IPS says I should do, I'm continuing to buy as planned.

If I'm right, I might get to rebalance again. If I'm wrong, I won't. If I'm really wrong, I'll get to rebalance the other direction.
Corsair
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Corsair »

I'm shorting the market with "fun" money I'm willing to lose on 3X ETFs options. Worked out well in late February.

I'm not foolish enough to fully bet against the Fed and Powell. They won't ever stop the printing presses. Either do I ever see them decreasing the balance sheet.

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negwtg
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by negwtg »

I don't feel that confident about the next 2 to 3 years. I feel it will be a long time before the US economy is hitting on all cylinders. Many small businesses are in ruin and will never come back, others will take months if not years to return to 2019 levels. People that have financial assets will be fine if they watch their spending and expenses a little bit. But people that have and are living pay check to pay check with a lot of cosummer debt are screwed and may never recover.
Nowizard
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Nowizard »

I'm feeling cautious and expect a drop but have no idea how much of one. The focus now is on stimulating investments, basically governmental bailouts before corporations have in most cases reported results of the crisis. Though there have been some bankruptcies, they have not been the focus. As earnings for the second quarter are posted, we will see why most corporations have offered little or no guidance for this quarter going forward. When the bankruptcies begin, I suspect a significant drop in a market long overdue for one even before the crisis. It is being propped up on someone else's money, the government, in my opinion.

Tim
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hagridshut
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by hagridshut »

Plans haven't changed. Sticking to my Asset Allocation.

The plunge in March wasn't fun, but the horrific experience of 2008-2009, where the S&P500 crashed more than 50% and the entire banking system teetered on the brink of total collapse, has mostly inoculated me to anything but existential threats.

I started investing in 1999, so my first decade of being in the markets was basically 1 bad crash (.com Bubble burst + 9/11 fallout), 1 possible "end-of-the-economy" crash (2008 Great Financial Crisis) and overall stagnation.

I feel ok.

Macro events are out of my control, so I focus on what I can control: the $ I can invest, expense ratio, and keeping to a well thought out plan rather than trading on emotion.
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quasar
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by quasar »

AA was 50/50 as of Monday. Changed it to 40% Equity/60% Fixed Income . Still want to participate if there is a blow off top. If we are range bound for the summer, and revisit SPX 2700 - 2800, will shift a bit more in to equities. If we revisit $SPX 2200, then will change AA to 60% equity/40% fixed income.
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1789
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by 1789 »

I feel great. I was speculating that market would go down 60% when we were down around 20%. It always make me feel good to come out wrong on my guesses. It helps me to mature.
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ccf
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ccf »

sailaway wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:49 pm I am bewildered, and still sticking to my IPS.
Same. If things go south, at least I'll be able to get back to the funds that I prefer to hold (after tax loss harvesting in March)
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LadyGeek
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed several posts discussing the coronavirus. The main intent of the post must be on-topic, which is sentiment regarding market highs.

See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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telemark
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by telemark »

I didn't rebalance into stocks when the market was down. Partly because I was distracted by other matters, but also because I didn't have the nerve. From this I conclude that I overestimated my risk tolerance and that my 50/50 allocation was too aggressive for me. So I took the opportunity on Monday to change it to 45/55. Not a big change, but I don't like making big changes.
m@ver1ck
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by m@ver1ck »

Xrayman69 wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:44 am
m@ver1ck wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:51 pm Weve been told by our MSFT CVP that we will be working from home until a vaccine comes out. In addition, it's great since now we are collaborating more effectively with remote teams.
Also - productivity had been same or higher WFH.
However I notice the effects of isolation, specially on single people living alone. It's like solitary. We parents have it better. Super exhausting, but having to take care of kids keeps us sane.

I suspect single earners with kids with stay at home spouses who are making enough $$ are doing the best.
Any thoughts from your corporate leaders allowing some to move away from VHCOL local as WFM is now acceptable and no longer deemed “not as engaged” individual?
One of my coworkers moved to Hawaii last October and is working from there. :-)
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by TheTimeLord »

m@ver1ck wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:17 am
Xrayman69 wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:44 am
m@ver1ck wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:51 pm Weve been told by our MSFT CVP that we will be working from home until a vaccine comes out. In addition, it's great since now we are collaborating more effectively with remote teams.
Also - productivity had been same or higher WFH.
However I notice the effects of isolation, specially on single people living alone. It's like solitary. We parents have it better. Super exhausting, but having to take care of kids keeps us sane.

I suspect single earners with kids with stay at home spouses who are making enough $$ are doing the best.
Any thoughts from your corporate leaders allowing some to move away from VHCOL local as WFM is now acceptable and no longer deemed “not as engaged” individual?
One of my coworkers moved to Hawaii last October and is working from there. :-)
I've worked with people based in Hawaii, the time zone difference is very rough on them if they have to attend meetings or contact clients. But if they can work independently of other team members it probably isn't too bad.
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LadyGeek
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by LadyGeek »

Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Sandi_k
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Sandi_k »

lawnboss wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:07 pm I stuck to my AA, but I have decided to tighten my rebalancing bands from 5% to 1%. The actual monetary impact of this is probably borderline inconsequential, but it does make me feel a little better to take a bit of profit off the table after a few good days of market run-up. It's really my same-old same-old IPS, just a bit of additional effort due to more frequent rebalancing. For whatever reason, it does help with the jitters. If things ever start to feel tame again, I may relax back to the 5% bands.
So, I too have a 5% band in my IPS, and my accounts almost never hit it. So I was thinking about it, and think I am constructing my bands wrong. For example:

60% stocks/40% bonds. A 5% move would be something like 66%+ stocks, 34% bonds, right?

In thinking about it over the past couple of months, I think it needs to be 5% of the portfolio, PROPORTIONATELY. So, 5% of 60% stocks = a 3% swing. That would mean I would sell when it got to more than 63% stocks, not 66%.

Anyone else thinking of the rebalancing based on a proportional reckoning? I feel like I had a major lightbulb moment over here. :D
ohboy!
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ohboy! »

KlangFool wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:12 pm
pseudoiterative wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:43 pm I'm curious how much impact changes in the value of USD have on market indices. E.g. naively if one USD were to halve in value, then we might expect all market indices defined in terms of USD-denominated market caps to double. But there wouldn't really be any fundamental change in the economic situation, just a change in the unit we're using to measure value (assuming that all USD denomimated prices in the economy would double, etc).

It looks like the russell 3000 index is up 13% over the last month since the 6th of May. If we compare the exchange rate of USD against a basket of stock-market-cap-weighted currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD) it looks like the value of 1 USD has fallen by about 3.8% over the same 1 month period. So arguably the net gain of the Russell 3000 index is about 9.2% after adjusting for devaluation of USD in same period.
pseudoiterative,

Are you worried enough to be prepared?

I bought some Gold and Silver. I do not have to care. I am prepared.

KlangFool
Physical PMs or paper equivalents?
ohboy!
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ohboy! »

Is there some accurate way to look at how much of the money moving into the market is coming from retirement contributions?

It seems to me the stimulus and low interest rates are an effective bandaid on wall street (what some people call the economy). Though what I see on the ground doesn't reflect that reality. It's hard to tell how much scarring there will be when the bandaids come off (I think a lot of PPP funds will be spent by July). I also think the big upcoming uncertainties are the election and the likely return of the virus en force come the fall. Optimism could easily maintain itself through the summer as the virus maintains relatively low levels and people get back out feeling normal again.
KlangFool
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by KlangFool »

ohboy! wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:45 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:12 pm
pseudoiterative wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:43 pm I'm curious how much impact changes in the value of USD have on market indices. E.g. naively if one USD were to halve in value, then we might expect all market indices defined in terms of USD-denominated market caps to double. But there wouldn't really be any fundamental change in the economic situation, just a change in the unit we're using to measure value (assuming that all USD denomimated prices in the economy would double, etc).

It looks like the russell 3000 index is up 13% over the last month since the 6th of May. If we compare the exchange rate of USD against a basket of stock-market-cap-weighted currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD) it looks like the value of 1 USD has fallen by about 3.8% over the same 1 month period. So arguably the net gain of the Russell 3000 index is about 9.2% after adjusting for devaluation of USD in same period.
pseudoiterative,

Are you worried enough to be prepared?

I bought some Gold and Silver. I do not have to care. I am prepared.

KlangFool
Physical PMs or paper equivalents?
Physical Gold/Silver. If you are worried enough, the paper is not good enough.

KlangFool
ohboy!
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ohboy! »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:57 am
ohboy! wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:45 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:12 pm
pseudoiterative wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:43 pm I'm curious how much impact changes in the value of USD have on market indices. E.g. naively if one USD were to halve in value, then we might expect all market indices defined in terms of USD-denominated market caps to double. But there wouldn't really be any fundamental change in the economic situation, just a change in the unit we're using to measure value (assuming that all USD denomimated prices in the economy would double, etc).

It looks like the russell 3000 index is up 13% over the last month since the 6th of May. If we compare the exchange rate of USD against a basket of stock-market-cap-weighted currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD) it looks like the value of 1 USD has fallen by about 3.8% over the same 1 month period. So arguably the net gain of the Russell 3000 index is about 9.2% after adjusting for devaluation of USD in same period.
pseudoiterative,

Are you worried enough to be prepared?

I bought some Gold and Silver. I do not have to care. I am prepared.

KlangFool
Physical PMs or paper equivalents?
Physical Gold/Silver. If you are worried enough, the paper is not good enough.

KlangFool
Agreed. That's why I was checking. I got silver for $7 before it went to $50+. Still holding. Feels like a heavy insurance policy. It's a very small amount of my total assets. Have some gold, platinum, palladium too. The market has done better over the past 10 years but I don't like having all my money in numbers on a screen.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Called it, and put my money where my mouth is, again...
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by TheTimeLord »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:41 am Called it, and put my money where my mouth is, again...
Called what?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Corsair
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Corsair »

ohboy! wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:01 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:57 am
ohboy! wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:45 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:12 pm
pseudoiterative wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:43 pm I'm curious how much impact changes in the value of USD have on market indices. E.g. naively if one USD were to halve in value, then we might expect all market indices defined in terms of USD-denominated market caps to double. But there wouldn't really be any fundamental change in the economic situation, just a change in the unit we're using to measure value (assuming that all USD denomimated prices in the economy would double, etc).

It looks like the russell 3000 index is up 13% over the last month since the 6th of May. If we compare the exchange rate of USD against a basket of stock-market-cap-weighted currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD) it looks like the value of 1 USD has fallen by about 3.8% over the same 1 month period. So arguably the net gain of the Russell 3000 index is about 9.2% after adjusting for devaluation of USD in same period.
pseudoiterative,

Are you worried enough to be prepared?

I bought some Gold and Silver. I do not have to care. I am prepared.

KlangFool
Physical PMs or paper equivalents?
Physical Gold/Silver. If you are worried enough, the paper is not good enough.

KlangFool
Agreed. That's why I was checking. I got silver for $7 before it went to $50+. Still holding. Feels like a heavy insurance policy. It's a very small amount of my total assets. Have some gold, platinum, palladium too. The market has done better over the past 10 years but I don't like having all my money in numbers on a screen.
You guys are smart :beer I'm slowly building my pile. Just bought 1oz Australian Koala coins recently.

Do you guys prefer gold Eagles or Buffalos? Or whatever is selling close to spot? Seems to be personal preference
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ValuationsMatter »

A negative reaction to the fed's comments.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by TheTimeLord »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:48 am A negative reaction to the fed's comments.
Perhaps it would be easier to follow if you "Called it" post was a reply to the post where you called it.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ValuationsMatter »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:34 pm This is my first move since April 14th. At that point, I trimmed back from 70/30 to 50/50. Today, after the rally last week and today, it stood at about 55/45. Today, I sold back to what I expect will be 45/55 AA. I'm doing this is tax-sheltered accounts to avoid STCG.

Tomorrow, if there's no shenanigans, I may make a move in the TSP to bring the AA down to the desired 40/60.

For future reference:
Buffett indicator stands at 152.8%
Shiller CAPE: 30.5
S&P500 TTM P/E: 27.17
S&P500 Forward P/E: 22.8
% from all time peak: 4.75%

I'm a little worried about what the fed is going to say. The market expects neutrality at a minimum, if not more incentives. A bad comment would probably cause a pretty negative reaction.
Also...
ValuationsMatter wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:08 am
skor99 wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:00 pm I feel another wild swing downwards of 40% would be very harmful to the investor sentiment. I think the Fed might be actively engaging in ‘managing’ the market till Covid is under control and unemployment is down around 7-8 %.
The Fed's mandate is to control inflation & minimize unemployment.

The threat was deflation & high unemployment. Fairly obvious answer: loosen monetary policy. The question will be whether we are appropriately balanced. When employment & inflation head the same direction, all is well with the world, because the Fed can move in a single direction for positive effect on both. The tough question comes when they diverge.

Right now, the market expects the Fed to continue on the same course, and I suspect they will. But I do not expect a pop from markets for the expected. This is what we call a negative free roll. There's no way to win and yet a small possibility of losing. If Powell says the most minute thing about the Fed's inevitable fiscal tightening, the markets will react negatively.

Some other clouds in my 'crystal ball':
- Trump is seen as pro-business and the moment he was elected the market popped, and seemingly continued to pop. Biden has a decent chance of winning and I'd expect a negative impact to markets if he does. This is not political commentary. I do not care what overall effect either man as president will have on the country. It's only a prognostication on a possible threat to current market prices.
- We're effectively an opened economy and have more active COVID cases than we ever did. We didn't beat the virus. We have no vaccines, yet. It's seemingly as deadly as our worst fears (confirmed Case-mortality of over 5% in the US).
- Unified global action in retaliation against China is likely to take the form of an economic reaction, which would have worldwide market implications for the short term, at a minimum.
- These and other destabilizing factors will lead to as of yet unforseeable events that are more likely to be negative to markets than positive.
- Market valuations are already close to or equal to pre-crisis levels. The balloon is nearly full and the slightest rough surface that it brushes may return us into a race back to the bottom.

You could fairly say I am a bear under all of these conditions. All eyes now to the Fed and future stimulus programs.
To be clear, I'm more concerned with valuations returning to pre-crisis highs despite the fact that we are still in the throes of the crisis. However, I wanted to get out, even more than the amount that I actually did, before the Fed's statement, because I thought a minute negative comment would cause a drop. I actually thought they did a good job. The market still didn't like it, though. lol
Last edited by ValuationsMatter on Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ohboy!
Posts: 577
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:21 pm

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by ohboy! »

Corsair wrote: Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:48 am
ohboy! wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:01 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:57 am
ohboy! wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:45 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:12 pm

pseudoiterative,

Are you worried enough to be prepared?

I bought some Gold and Silver. I do not have to care. I am prepared.

KlangFool
Physical PMs or paper equivalents?
Physical Gold/Silver. If you are worried enough, the paper is not good enough.

KlangFool
Agreed. That's why I was checking. I got silver for $7 before it went to $50+. Still holding. Feels like a heavy insurance policy. It's a very small amount of my total assets. Have some gold, platinum, palladium too. The market has done better over the past 10 years but I don't like having all my money in numbers on a screen.
You guys are smart :beer I'm slowly building my pile. Just bought 1oz Australian Koala coins recently.

Do you guys prefer gold Eagles or Buffalos? Or whatever is selling close to spot? Seems to be personal preference
I haven’t bought silver in years but I like variety. I have philharmonics, eagles, englehard bars, and probably 5 other random types. Gold variety too.
hoops777
Posts: 3435
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by hoops777 »

Not near all time highs anymore. So funny that a little negative sentiment based on reality causes such a drop. The market has never looked more like a casino game than the last few months.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
Heelz
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:37 pm
Location: NC

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Post by Heelz »

Market timing at its luckiest: I scheduled a rollover late last week, so half of my retirement savings was cashed out at near highs. I might just hold on to the check for a few extra days. I doubt I'll get that lucky again.
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