Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

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Candor
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Candor »

I put around 10% of my PF into the S&P from -7.5% to -26.7% from ATH and will let it ride. This is money I moved to bonds late last year due to the market rise and being a couple of years from retirement which just ended up being lucky timing for me. I had another 2.5% keyed in on the day of the market low but didn't execute b/c the market moved up a little at the end of the day and I was expecting to have a better opportunity in the near future. Nothing major and it won't move the needle much but it gave me a sense that I was doing something instead of just sitting there and taking it.

If the market retests the lows later in the year I will add some more but for now I'm just trying to resist the urge to move back to bonds with such a quick bounce back up. If no major market moves I will just stand there.
Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
Mrxyz
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Mrxyz »

I did NOT try to time the market but ;

I moved my AA to 60-40 from 75-25 in January just because it was stock heavy before based on my age. So I got lucky with increasing my bond allocation by 15% before the stocks dropped. Not sure how much $ I "made" but I do not care to find out as I do not need the money for many years........
Glockenspiel
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Glockenspiel »

I didn't necessarily time the market, but I bought $76,000 worth of index funds between March 2nd and April 13th this year, and currently have a gain of $9,400 on those shares. 8-)
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celia
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by celia »

livesoft wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 am The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities.
You would only have to sell 5% of your portfolio (in bonds) and use it to buy stocks to get to 70/30. That is only 12.5% of your bonds.

Each % you exchange decreases one asset class a % AND increases the other one a % at the same time.
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celia
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by celia »

260chrisb wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:28 pm I sold enough to cover my first two years of retirement in December in an IRA rollover account . It was good timing of course and did it so that I would not have to sell in a down market two years from now when I retire. My plan is to cover my third year at the end of this year provided the market is up and do the same for my fourth at the end of 2021. I've also built cash within my 401K since last year. If markets are not favorable to sell this year or next, I'll draw from my cash holdings which will be enough to cover two years after contributing this year and next.
I don’t see this as market timing. You didn’t sell because markets were high, but because you need a few years of living expenses in cash. Very smart. If you would have freed up cash even if the markets weren’t so high, that would show you’ve just about reached your retirement and need to protect it.

That is not market timing.
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celia
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by celia »

In 2008, I did lots of Roth conversions as the market was going down. I don’t regard that as market timing, but taking advantage of current circumstances (which market timing also does).
rossington
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by rossington »

celia wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 12:18 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 am The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities.
You would only have to sell 5% of your portfolio (in bonds) and use it to buy stocks to get to 70/30. That is only 12.5% of your bonds.

Each % you exchange decreases one asset class a % AND increases the other one a % at the same time.
That does not appear to be correct. A 1m portfolio at 60/40 would indeed sell 25% of bonds (100k) to get to 70/30. This equates to 10% of the total 1m portfolio.
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.
Monsterflockster
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Monsterflockster »

Fully funded my IRA on January 2nd as did my wife. That didn’t turn out so well.

I did buy some Disney at $82 and sold when it hit $120 per the plan if it hit that mark. So I that was a win.

My wife also bought Kohl’s stock despite my disapproval and it has nearly doubled. So what do I know.

Other than that we are in total stock market so it’s kind of boring.
rossington
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by rossington »

livesoft wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 am The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities. That's already a big deal, but let's say it works and the stock market goes up 10%. In that case, the portfolio gets an extra 1% performance over staying at 60/40.

However, after such a big drop, one's 60/40 portfolio is probably not at 60/40 and more like 50/50. In order to ever keep up with a 60/40 fund such at Vanguard Balanced Index or LifeStrategy Growth, an investor really needs to rebalance back to 60/40 after a drop. We have seen time and time again that many people are proud that they didn't sell, but they didn't rebalance either and just let their portfolio takes its time.

If one was calculating their asset allocation and rebalancing as needed, then it would look like good market timing because one would only be buying equities when they had dropped a lot and would be selling them when they gained a lot. That's only going to happen fleetingly with the market volatility that's been happening in 2020. That is, an investor's fixed income funds would be missing the worst days of the market and their equity funds would be participating in the best days of the market. (Notice what I left out? :twisted:)
One could argue that this year (and at times,last year) fixed income (bond) funds did not miss the worst days of the market and did participate in the best days of the market.
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.
Skeeter1
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Skeeter1 »

anon_investor wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 1:11 pm With my play money allocation I have about a 40% return on my March purchases of VGT (Vanguard Info Tech Index) and VUG (Vanguard Growth Index).
+1
I bought exactly the same ones. Enjoying the ride for now. :beer
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flossy21
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by flossy21 »

On 03/12 I bought $20k worth of VTSAX in the taxable account. I had been sitting on it in a high yield savings account for a couple months waiting for a dip. It's up to $25,131 as of right now. I freely admit it was pure luck on my part to time it that closely.
annu
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by annu »

Noobvestor wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 5:53 am
annu wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:19 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:03 pm
Noobvestor wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
They’re still around. They won’t be back if we continue up, but if we get another dip they’ll be back in full force. You never hear from them before they make the move. Just after it’s worked out. Except for the one guy “I’m timing the marker due to coronavirus” wonder if he ever got back in ?
Yep still around, nothing to report back yet, got out, not getting back in this year
That's bold. I hope it works out for you, but seems very risky to me. Other markets are still down, but US has almost entirely rebounded. For those curious about tracking the results, care to say when you sold out and then update us when you get back in?
I pulled out on Feb 14th, we had plans for valentine's, but wife was called in to work. So had nothing else do and ended up doing this as had been researching on this and looked like a good time to do it.
I was 70/30 before all this, at this point I am 35/30 with 35 money market/ cash. Still have 80% of international, but only 10% of US.
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celia
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by celia »

rossington wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 12:44 pm
celia wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 12:18 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 am The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities.
You would only have to sell 5% of your portfolio (in bonds) and use it to buy stocks to get to 70/30. That is only 12.5% of your bonds.

Each % you exchange decreases one asset class a % AND increases the other one a % at the same time.
That does not appear to be correct. A 1m portfolio at 60/40 would indeed sell 25% of bonds (100k) to get to 70/30. This equates to 10% of the total 1m portfolio.
It looks like you’re right! :sharebeer
livesoft
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by livesoft »

And my point is that little market timing moves of just moving 5% of the total portfolio around are like moving the deck chairs on the Titanic. When they work out well, then they certainly make one feel good. And if you chain several 5% moves in a row, then maybe something good will come from it.

But otherwise, please be fearless when it comes to rebalancing. If You Can. :beer
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dkturner
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by dkturner »

Elysium wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:46 pm It appears that you could have had much higher returns with any of those others instead of VFIDX, but you chose the one with lowest returns. This is not a good market timing success story, you got to bet big and win big when you time the market, otherwise it isn't worth it since you simply increased the risk for almost no reward. Imagine if market took another dive then, VFIDX would be dropping along with equities, and you aren't getting a reward on the upside that justifies this risk. You gave up portfolio protection that US Treasuries were giving, and got very little in return.
I had no intention of trying to make a “killing” By timing the market. I was simply engaging in some valuation driven capital redeployment in an effort to enhance the return on a portion of my fixed income investments (the bulk of my fixed income is held in my VWIAX account). I deliberately chose the Vanguard I-T corporate bond fund with the highest quality corporate bonds, and it got me a much higher return than Treasuries since I made the switch. I am well aware that VICSX could have gotten a higher return, but I didn’t feel comfortable with its 50+% allocation to BBB bonds (VFIDX and VWIAX only hold about 20% BBB bonds).

This isn’t my first rodeo. I did the same thing from March 2009 (when I switched from VFIUX to VFIDX) to March 2019 (when I switched back to VFIUX) during that 10 year period VFIDX had an annualized return of 6.28% with an SD of 3.87 compared to VFIUX which returned only 3.00% annualized, with an SD of 3.84.
geses
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by geses »

I'm really good at MIStiming the market. For example, I figured that Trump would try to keep the economy propped up for his re-election bid, so I put money in Upro last autumn, planning on dumping it before the election, but that crashed in March. I thought there was going to be a coronavirus drop back in January, but just as I was about to reduce my equity exposure there was a little dip in the end of January. I figured I had missed my opportunity, and then when the market bounced back, I didn't do anything. I've made money in VTSAX but like a lot of retail investors have lost money in everything else. It's pretty embarrassing.
harlond
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by harlond »

kabob wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 4:05 pm
WildBill wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:56 pm
kabob wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:42 pm Oh Yea, I missed the dip & am back in... Its really pretty simple... (2007, govt shutdown, as some others also did),
Image
The Red's the Verifying Indicators(RelativeStrength,MA50,PPO/Macd & Directionals(ADX) - all slapped ya in the face with obvious GetOutaThere indicators - tellin ya get out around $300-295...
The Green's the verifying indicatos of recovery -especially the(Yellow!!!) Below the Line PPO BullCross, with RSI & ADX support - BackIn ~$235 ..
Easy Low Hangin Fruit!
Eat your Heart out BoogleBuy&Hopers while Crying in your Losses...
Be Aware - PAYAttention! (after all its your Money)
Technical Analysis has it's rewards! And it aint that hard...
There's the Proof right above!
But there is also a Demanding Requirement - Ya Gatta PayAttention!
Howdy
This one made my day. If you are just kidding us, good job and thanks for the entertainment.
If you are really serious, well done and I assume that with your keen insight and superior methods you are independently wealthy.
My timing consisted of DCA ing into index funds every two weeks for about thirty years. When the market was up, I was rich. When it was down I was buying on sale. Worked great.
Happy candelabra, and pennants, and Iron Crossses, and whatever is the predictive animal entrail of the week to all.
W B
This one made my day. - Yea! and it made my YEAR too! (I made that same money Twice!!! (once goin up, and again on recovery!)
If you are really serious.. - Yes, absolutely, ever since ~2003 when I starting using Technical Analysis for LossAvoidance.
And I will add I've also been a Boglehead feedin my investments and retirement regularly for decades also.
I like Bogleism, & practice it - I just augment it with well recognized Technical Analysis and (objective) Market Indicators...
It's just that HoldinLoosers thru that downward slopin 50dayMA that bothers me - and knowing when to join the party again that helps...
I like them Animal Entrails...

(and Catchin that (Yellow) PPO/MACD BullCross below the line - My Favorite!!! - That's a Technical Situation that's made a me a Whole Lotta $$$$
(Literally Juicy Low hangin Fruit! - If Ya PayAttention!)
And that RSI,PPO & ADX is still lookin quite reasinable - but ya gotta PayAttention to see how the market cycle ends....
Would you be willing to elaborate on how you implement this in your portfolio? I’d also like to know of any sources You could direct me toward so I could learn this. I’d like to research the potential to react to the market during major moves.
Elysium
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Elysium »

dkturner wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 2:11 pm
Elysium wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:46 pm It appears that you could have had much higher returns with any of those others instead of VFIDX, but you chose the one with lowest returns. This is not a good market timing success story, you got to bet big and win big when you time the market, otherwise it isn't worth it since you simply increased the risk for almost no reward. Imagine if market took another dive then, VFIDX would be dropping along with equities, and you aren't getting a reward on the upside that justifies this risk. You gave up portfolio protection that US Treasuries were giving, and got very little in return.
I had no intention of trying to make a “killing” By timing the market. I was simply engaging in some valuation driven capital redeployment in an effort to enhance the return on a portion of my fixed income investments (the bulk of my fixed income is held in my VWIAX account). I deliberately chose the Vanguard I-T corporate bond fund with the highest quality corporate bonds, and it got me a much higher return than Treasuries since I made the switch. I am well aware that VICSX could have gotten a higher return, but I didn’t feel comfortable with its 50+% allocation to BBB bonds (VFIDX and VWIAX only hold about 20% BBB bonds).

This isn’t my first rodeo. I did the same thing from March 2009 (when I switched from VFIUX to VFIDX) to March 2019 (when I switched back to VFIUX) during that 10 year period VFIDX had an annualized return of 6.28% with an SD of 3.87 compared to VFIUX which returned only 3.00% annualized, with an SD of 3.84.
I understand what you are saying. You saw the Fed action and took it as a sign the bottom isn't falling out of corporate bond sector. Is that correct? If not, what gave you confidence to go into corporate bonds. Having simply fallen in price alone will not help make a determination, because without the Fed backstop they could have fallen much more. I guess then that condition extends out to BBB rated bonds as well which would give even more. Secondly, if you were doing this switching then VUSUX would have been even better instead of VFIUX on both occasions, 2008-09 and 2020 March. Anyway, I got your point, you are interested in playing on the small margins of comfort with something like VFIDX/VFIUX and not wading into VUSUX/VWEAX.
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Portfolio7
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Portfolio7 »

Yes, but not in a replicable manner...
- Bought a house in the bay area, just before the housing recovery from '92 really kicked in. House value up over 100%. Pure luck.
- Overweighted REITs 2004-2006. Lotta luck.
- Started selling my stocks in monthly 10% chunks in November 2007. My intent was to get to 60/40, but I just kept selling. 90% luck.
- Started buying again in 10% chunks in early 2009. Mostly luck.
- Rebalanced my 401k at the close on March 23rd. Pure luck.

Tie...
- Wanted to sell in Jan 2000, but was still a tenderfoot relative to investing. I just held on for the next 5 years.
- did nothing heading into the Pandemic.

On the other side of the scale...
- Over-weighted EM going into 2018. Big gain, big loss, little gain, big loss, moderate gain since then. Net, it was a meh decision.
- Bought a house in 2005. Net of imputed rent, taxes, repairs, insurance, etc; the IRR on that decision may be a few tenths of a percent.
- Bought a 2nd house a few years later. It took 10 years to go anywhere. Not exactly precise timing.
- Bought into a business. It's taken a good 7 years to fine-tune the business model. If it takes off this year, the timing still sucked.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
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galeno
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by galeno »

Yes. Our market timing is to buy the BEAR and sell the BULL when our port recovers.

We have done market timing FOUR times since Jan 2006.

1. In Jan 2009 we over rebalaced equities from 55% to 70%.

2. In Jan 2012 we under rebalanced equities from 75% to 60%.

3. In Jan 2017 we under rebalanced equities from 60% to 40%.

4. On Mar 31 we over rebalanced equities from 35% to 45%.

Today we hold 48% equities. We hope to be at 50% in early January.
KISS & STC.
abc132
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by abc132 »

Sold 1-3 year treasuries on 3/17 but waited to buy stocks with the money until 4/7.

I thought the market would go a bit lower than it did, but I was not prepared to sit out any longer hoping it was a suckers rally, although it felt like a possibility at that time. I will take further action if we retest our lows in the upcoming months, but even depressions are not usually that hard on the stock market.

This action could be considered re-balancing, but my stock % is higher now than it was before the drop. I plan to purchase more bonds through new investments, but not to rebalance to my former bond % unless that happens organically (through stock market losses).

My bonds did exactly what I wanted them to do:

1. Provide access to money if needed
2. Reinvestment opportunity during a drop
3. lessened the drop vs 100% stock portfolio
4. extended multi-year emergency fund if truly needed

The monetary difference is small in the big scheme of things, because my plan is good enough not to need to do anything and I didn't take on any significant risk. I might retire 1 year earlier. The emotional ability to rebalance and even over-rebalance without an IPS means I am unlikely to panic sell when the market is down, and my portfolio prevents me from ever needing to do this.

Successful investing is about avoiding the big mistakes, and taking a free lunch (like low fees) when it is handed to you. Being comfortable purchasing when the market is down makes the bumpy ride a lot more enjoyable, even if it doesn't do much to the final destination.
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Toons
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Toons »

I bought some shares in Equity funds
October 22
1987
:happy
Then again
I bought A couple Technology funds
March
2000
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Northern Flicker
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Northern Flicker »

dkturner wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term.

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.

Anybody else have a recent success story?
What is the trick? Moving from treasuries to corporate bonds every March 26?
Risk is not a guarantor of return.
Vanguard Fan 1367
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

I had some BND. Bonds have such a low yield post Coronavirus that I decided to sell it and immediately get Vanguard’s High Dividend Yield fund instead. So far the fund is rocking and rolling.
Upton Sinclair: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
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dkturner
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by dkturner »

Northern Flicker wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 6:59 pm
dkturner wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term.

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.

Anybody else have a recent success story?
What is the trick? Moving from treasuries to corporate bonds every March 26?
Only make the change in years when the move delivers a substantial excess return, like 2009 and 2020. :greedy
fennewaldaj
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by fennewaldaj »

Not really a market timing attempt but I had a limit order in for Vanguard S+P 600 value VIOV that triggered at the interday low (out to 2 decimal places)on the lowest day so far. It was only like 6 shares but still a fun story.
Chicken Little
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Chicken Little »

livesoft wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:11 pmYes, thanks for asking. See also: viewtopic.php?t=311448
I'm in there.
rbaldini wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 1:49 pmI wonder how much money you lost (in terms of opportunity cost) by keeping your money in Treasuries prior to this event, relative to perhaps a higher returning investment.
Market timing is usually portrayed as all-in and all-out type moves. That's nonsense. I have a tactical asset allocation that allows me to respond to market conditions while remaining fully invested. When I pass away, my average asset allocation will then be retroactively fixed, and I can arrange for it to be posted.

The lessons from this crisis;

1. Volatility is easy. It was easy in 2008/9, and it was easy in Feb/March. I made correct and insignificant moves in 2008/09 by playing leveraged ETFs, and significant moves in Feb/March by rotating from bond mutual funds to stock mutual funds. You obviously don't have to do anything in volatile markets. If you didn't in these last two, or got it wrong, that's more reason to just stay the course.

2. If you want to have assets to rotate, you are clearly leaving something on the table relative to a higher fixed equity allocation. However, that's only if you are willing to sign up for that higher allocation in the first place.

3. Through knowledge gained on this site I owned a decent amount of long term treasuries. Through knowledge gained on this site, I sold those to buy equity. I will never hold a fixed percentage of LTT.

4. For the all-in / all-out crowd, this was a real slow moving train wreck. I posted in February that schools would close in US, just as they had closed in Japan and Hong Kong. From there it's easy to extrapolate. Why didn't I pull all my money? Because I have an "average asset allocation" that I maintain over time. I'm always invested and don't have to worry about "getting back in", just the percentage. If you are inclined to move all-in and all-out, and got this crisis wrong - didn't exit in February and didn't re-enter in March - I don't think there will ever be an easier opportunity. From an investing standpoint, this was a gift-wrapped crisis. You could see it unfolding in slow motion and you knew that the Treasury/Fed would step in to arrest the decline.

5. For all intents and purposes, this crisis is over. Sure, if the economy is irreparably damaged then stocks may grind down over time, but that's just the new world order, not crisis. As far as crises go, forget about this one, now is time to prepare for the next one.
Chicken Little
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Chicken Little »

To be fair, for as much as I got this right and executed my plan successfully (buy low, sell high), and for as much as I knew a financial crisis was coming (well before the virus even existed in the wild), I still made a mistake.

I panic-bought in late February. I knew the Treasury/Fed would intervene in an unprecedented way (their intervention in the next financial crisis will be unprecedented all over again, because it has to be to buy the same effect) and was afraid of missing the opportunity.

The February money wasn't a lot, but it wasn't nothing. The rest of the buys were peppered on/around March 23rd.

I saw the future clearly, and still messed it up to an extent.
Chicken Little
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Chicken Little »

Finally, to counter the broken-clock rebuttal.

We did not have to have this financial system. It did not have to be so "crisis-prone". Our economy, and the world economy, is fragile. Once we get back up on our feet, we are only returning to a state-ready-to-fail.

That is the debt-driven reality of the way the world does business today.

There aren't recessions any more, at least of note, there is only financial crisis.
latesaver
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by latesaver »

whodidntante wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:50 pm

I like to think the "bear gang" on WSB bought my puts. :twisted: Some of you know what that means. Oh well, maybe they'll get me next time. I shouldn't play results.
I don't know if I believe half of what they claim on that site but they are a hilarious lot for sure.
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firebirdparts
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by firebirdparts »

Chicken Little wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:03 am I saw the future clearly, and still messed it up to an extent.
Are you taking profits now? just curious. it seems like you would be.

To the extent that I rebalanced at the low, I have to rebalance now, if I am going to hold about the same AA. I don't have any confidence in my ability to predict future market moves.
A fool and your money are soon partners
Chicken Little
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Chicken Little »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 10:02 am
Chicken Little wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:03 am I saw the future clearly, and still messed it up to an extent.
Are you taking profits now? just curious. it seems like you would be.
Well, I don't have a fixed allocation, so it's not imperative.

I went from 40/60 to 60/40 in Feb/March. Believe it or not, I actually prefer to limit the meddling, which is part of the reason I stay in mutual funds instead of converting to ETFs. I haven't looked at balances in a while, and will review quarterly statements in June.

I am still trying to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing. In ordinary times, I would probably rotate back to where I was in February (40/60). However, the massive intervention makes bonds less attractive and is de facto equity support. If I feel like the stimulus will support the stock market despite the troubled economy, I might just stand pat.

Otherwise, buy every two weeks.
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Quirkz
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Quirkz »

I've come out ahead by timing. Once. By about $2000. I had a sort of "fear of heights" panic and sold, coincidentally on the day that the late 2018 market really started to tank. My transaction didn't go through until after the Dow had dropped $1k that day, but it continued to drop. Because it was in a retirement account I had to sit impatiently and uneasily and wait to not trigger a frequent trading alert. When that finally cleared 60 days later I shifted back to where I'd started, coincidentally on a day when the Dow had a huge spike at the beginning of the recovery.

Like I said, all told I think I made $2k more than if I'd done nothing. If I'd been 24 hours earlier, twice, I could have doubled that to $4k. If I'd been wrong in the other direction, I could have easily destroyed 10 or 20 times that much.

Doing research in the middle of that brought me here. I've realized how lucky I was all of the above worked out, and I'm no longer tempted to mess with timing.
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by bogledogle »

I did some opportunistic investing. I bought some VTI and VOO when market was still going down. Market went down even more so I took some losses and did TLH so I have a write off for this year on ordinary income and offset a small chunk of taxes on dividends. At the end of the day, market went up so I am in the green and I have a tax write off. A small win, but could have been a loss in the short term easily.

I didn't do a good job timing the market, but I still sort of bought stock at a discounted price and it is always nice morale boost to see a low cost basis.
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by 1130Super »

I had some circumstances change went mostly cash in my taxable in December and January to spread gains out over 2 tax years. I did this to prepare to buy next home in cash or mostly cash, then Covid happened and realized it would be better to wait it out and put off moving and job hunting. But when market was down 20% -30% I averaged back in market out of temptation. Then we found a house that we just couldn’t turn down made an offer and moved everything to cash. We close at end of June
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SD2SR
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by SD2SR »

In late 2018, I quit a small financial firm--toxic environment, no upward mobility, etc. One positive was a restricted stock unit award program, with a three-year vesting period. I was only about 33% vested when I left, but I was just over it. At the time, the company's stock was testing it's all time high, with some whipsawing, and I sold off all of my RSU's into cash and officially walked away. After the December 2018 correction, they kept dropping. As of this writing, they're STILL off their high by about 55%. So, not intentional timing, per se (more spite, really), but in hindsight a good move.

Also: DW maxed her Roth IRA early March this year, and I incrementally funded mine half-way through March low, so that was kind of a win, collectively.
Last edited by SD2SR on Wed May 27, 2020 6:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by fsrph »

I did a good (probably more lucky than good) job timing the CD market. In the beginning of 2019 I opened a 3,4 and 5 year CD with the minimum of $500. Here's where the good part comes. The CD's pay 3.1, 3.15, 3.25% respectively. But, all the CD's have an unlimited add on feature. Any other CD that matures, or extra cash, I simply place in the add on CD's.

Francis
"Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get." | Dale Carnegie
mbasherp
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by mbasherp »

I have actually done well timing the market, but I'm unsure if it's worth the stress involved. I have never bought back in higher than I sold, and I have never been out of the market more than a week. The goal is to increase the number of shares owned with the same capital, often utilizing small moves rather than big ones.

In March for instance, I felt (yes, this is based on feeling, oh no!) that the market's gyrations were running too far up and then too far down and it was getting pretty darn predictable. I took the approach of selling US equities in my Roth IRA after some of the big up days, and buying back on the inevitable down day that followed. I didn't perfectly time the market, but I got the directions right. Remember, even gaining one basis point is a victory. I gained roughly 40 "free" shares of SPTM in my Roth doing so.

I know this is risky, and my system is not one of assured success. The key is I am not looking to do this all the time; I usually only consider action when things get as haywire as they were in March. I've also had good luck with the same strategy in my very small individual stock portfolio, also in my Roth IRA. My individual stocks have beaten their benchmarks by 16% overall in the past 18 months. Not all winners, but winning overall.

In summary, I've been successful with this. But I think a key aspect of my success is that I will not become overconfident and make progressively larger bets which could eat up my previous success very quickly. The other key aspect is not looking for huge victories, but rather seeing small wins as the key to gaining a slight edge over remaining purely passive. Overall, I remain aligned with the Bogle approach.
Chicken Little
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Chicken Little »

mbasherp wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 11:37 am I have actually done well timing the market, but I'm unsure if it's worth the stress involved. I have never bought back in higher than I sold, and I have never been out of the market more than a week. The goal is to increase the number of shares owned with the same capital, often utilizing small moves rather than big ones.

In March for instance, I felt (yes, this is based on feeling, oh no!) that the market's gyrations were running too far up and then too far down and it was getting pretty darn predictable. I took the approach of selling US equities in my Roth IRA after some of the big up days, and buying back on the inevitable down day that followed. I didn't perfectly time the market, but I got the directions right. Remember, even gaining one basis point is a victory. I gained roughly 40 "free" shares of SPTM in my Roth doing so.

I know this is risky, and my system is not one of assured success. The key is I am not looking to do this all the time; I usually only consider action when things get as haywire as they were in March. I've also had good luck with the same strategy in my very small individual stock portfolio, also in my Roth IRA. My individual stocks have beaten their benchmarks by 16% overall in the past 18 months. Not all winners, but winning overall.

In summary, I've been successful with this. But I think a key aspect of my success is that I will not become overconfident and make progressively larger bets which could eat up my previous success very quickly. The other key aspect is not looking for huge victories, but rather seeing small wins as the key to gaining a slight edge over remaining purely passive. Overall, I remain aligned with the Bogle approach.
Well done.

I agree wholeheartedly. Those periods of extreme volitity (last two crises) can be managed with pure feel. If you follow what’s going on, it’s easy to let your instinct sync up with market moves. If you can’t feel it, I wouldn’t trade it, and would just stay the course.

If you can feel it, you don’t have to go all-in/out. There are sensible moves to be made within a relatively conservative investment philosophy.

Two-for-two, and preparing for third financial crisis.
Will make some moves. Won’t bet the farm.
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geerhardusvos
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by geerhardusvos »

dkturner wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term.

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.

Anybody else have a recent success story?
I bought VTSAX every two weeks for the last 10 years (still do) and never sold.

Success! :beer
VTSAX and chill
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dratkinson
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TLH bonds to buy equities on ex-dividend date.

Post by dratkinson »

Got lucky. Once.

Bonds were down in late 2018.
--2nd week of Nov, TLHed single-state muni to buy VWLUX (LT national muni).
Had lots of time to think and second guess while waiting.
Noticed VTSAX would declare a dividend on 24 Dec.
--3rd week of Dec, TLHed VWLUX to mmkt.
Waited a few days and...
--24 Dec, bought VTSAX on ex-dividend date.
Was completely surprised by market recover on 26 Dec. One in a row.

Simple action step. TLH bonds to buy equities on ex-dividend date.



Whimped out during current opportunity as I'd need to sell enough bonds to also pay quarterly taxes, and I'm already bumping up against an IRMAA tier.
--Too lazy to pay quarterly estimated taxes.
--Don't want to pay more for Medicare 2yrs hence.

But I did think about it.
d.r.a., not dr.a. | I'm a novice investor, you are forewarned.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

harlond wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 3:46 pm
kabob wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 4:05 pm
WildBill wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:56 pm
kabob wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:42 pm Oh Yea, I missed the dip & am back in... Its really pretty simple... (2007, govt shutdown, as some others also did),
Image
The Red's the Verifying Indicators(RelativeStrength,MA50,PPO/Macd & Directionals(ADX) - all slapped ya in the face with obvious GetOutaThere indicators - tellin ya get out around $300-295...
The Green's the verifying indicatos of recovery -especially the(Yellow!!!) Below the Line PPO BullCross, with RSI & ADX support - BackIn ~$235 ..
Easy Low Hangin Fruit!
Eat your Heart out BoogleBuy&Hopers while Crying in your Losses...
Be Aware - PAYAttention! (after all its your Money)
Technical Analysis has it's rewards! And it aint that hard...
There's the Proof right above!
But there is also a Demanding Requirement - Ya Gatta PayAttention!
Howdy
This one made my day. If you are just kidding us, good job and thanks for the entertainment.
If you are really serious, well done and I assume that with your keen insight and superior methods you are independently wealthy.
My timing consisted of DCA ing into index funds every two weeks for about thirty years. When the market was up, I was rich. When it was down I was buying on sale. Worked great.
Happy candelabra, and pennants, and Iron Crossses, and whatever is the predictive animal entrail of the week to all.
W B
This one made my day. - Yea! and it made my YEAR too! (I made that same money Twice!!! (once goin up, and again on recovery!)
If you are really serious.. - Yes, absolutely, ever since ~2003 when I starting using Technical Analysis for LossAvoidance.
And I will add I've also been a Boglehead feedin my investments and retirement regularly for decades also.
I like Bogleism, & practice it - I just augment it with well recognized Technical Analysis and (objective) Market Indicators...
It's just that HoldinLoosers thru that downward slopin 50dayMA that bothers me - and knowing when to join the party again that helps...
I like them Animal Entrails...

(and Catchin that (Yellow) PPO/MACD BullCross below the line - My Favorite!!! - That's a Technical Situation that's made a me a Whole Lotta $$$$
(Literally Juicy Low hangin Fruit! - If Ya PayAttention!)
And that RSI,PPO & ADX is still lookin quite reasinable - but ya gotta PayAttention to see how the market cycle ends....
Would you be willing to elaborate on how you implement this in your portfolio? I’d also like to know of any sources You could direct me toward so I could learn this. I’d like to research the potential to react to the market during major moves.
chartschool? Looks like the notes were written in crayon by a preschooler. Guess there's no lower bound age limit on bogleheads.

looks like all you did was circle the line at its apex (in red, presumably for "SELL!!") before it fell and now you're telling us you sold. So sure of that.
then you circle another line at the bottom (in green, presumably for "BUY!!!") before it rose and now you're telling us you bought. So sure of that too.

show us a listing of all your trades to verify the chart you pulled up, which anyone can pull up and scribble all over.

until you show us you did in your brokerage account what you claim ex post, I call b.s. (sorry to the boglehead preschoolers for the language).

I give your report a D minus mostly because you colored outside the lines.
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by kinless »

I was admittedly 100% short-term money market funds in the SEP for a long time, but as soon as the market started tanking below 20% from peak, I moved those bands of cash over to several index funds after each sizable drop, ignoring the repeated "catching a falling knife!" warnings. Managed to get about half of it moved over before the market suddenly began shooting back up, so the remainder went to bonds. As of now those equities are up about 13%. That's about as close to market-timing as I'll get.

If it suddenly decides to reverse course again and revisit March lows, then I'll resume market tim- *ahem* I mean, rebalancing. Being 25 years out from retirement allows such things. Including other investments I'm now 75/25 in the AA so no need to get crazy.
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Chrono Triggered
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Chrono Triggered »

I have total stock and total international in my taxable account and I decided to pull the trigger on my first ever tax loss harvest on March 18th, which worked out pretty well.

Furthermore, I had some additional income coming in later that month and I immediately invested it in equities. There was a small part of me that thought I should wait to see if I can get a better deal, but thankfully that was only a small part of me.

This part isn't entirely rational, but I wish I sold some equities when the virus was hitting more and more places but US stock prices were still making small gains. It made no sense whatsoever. If a situation like that happens again, I'll be tempted to do something with a small piece of my portfolio.
abc132
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by abc132 »

I locked in 16% gains off selling my short term treasuries (mentioned above) and this portion of my portfolio is now in an intermediate treasury fund.

I am now back to my pre-drop portfolio of 20% bonds and 80% stocks.
hammond
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by hammond »

I sold UAL stock around Feb when it was at $80 and put it all on my mortgage (which is @4.35%). I believe it was 5k or so of that.
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Lee_WSP »

I'm right 50% of the time, and wrong 50% of the time. With those odds, I'm better off leaving it on autopilot and leaving the table to go drink a beer. :sharebeer

Oh, and my timing is usually wrong by a week or two.
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by flaccidsteele »

dkturner wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term.

Anybody else have a recent success story?
Instead of “market timing” you could call it “rebalancing”

I cleaned up buying rentals during the credit crisis

Market timing at its finest

It allowed me to retire in my 40s
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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corn18
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by corn18 »

I got lucky and paid off my house last November instead of investing it ($520k). Sold the home last month and have the proceeds sitting in cash right now waiting to decide whether to pay cash for the next house or invest it.
Don't do something, just stand there!
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Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by rkhusky »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:42 pm show us a listing of all your trades to verify the chart you pulled up, which anyone can pull up and scribble all over.

until you show us you did in your brokerage account what you claim ex post, I call b.s. (sorry to the boglehead preschoolers for the language).

I give your report a D minus mostly because you colored outside the lines.
Even if it did work this time, I would need to see a quantitative algorithm and an analysis of how well it worked over the last 15 years, without any manual tweaking of the algorithm (it's easy to get an algorithm to work if you can adjust the parameters after the fact).
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