Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Topic Author
dkturner
Posts: 1585
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:58 pm

Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by dkturner » Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm

I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term.

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.

Anybody else have a recent success story?

runner3081
Posts: 3194
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by runner3081 » Mon May 25, 2020 12:58 pm

I have been dollar cost averaging since about 2006. It has been truly amazing market timing.

User avatar
calvin+hobbes
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:37 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by calvin+hobbes » Mon May 25, 2020 1:06 pm

My uncle whom I considered a boglehead philosophically told me in February that he had pulled his entire equity position in to cash shortly after the new year. His reasoning was that valuations were high, the yield curve had inverted and Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum which would be bad for businesses. I was shocked.


He turned out to be correct about a drop but for completely wrong reasons. To my knowledge, this is the first time he has timed the market. I’m guessing he had to pay some gains tax and he certainly avoided a decent haircut.

He is currently on the sidelines. Wonder If he has a plan to get back in. When he does, I am sure he is going to be watching the sensationalist news and thinking about timing it again to avoid the next bear. Hope this “win” doesn’t come back to bite him, decent chance that it will.

User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by anon_investor » Mon May 25, 2020 1:11 pm

With my play money allocation I have about a 40% return on my March purchases of VGT (Vanguard Info Tech Index) and VUG (Vanguard Growth Index).

Scatterbrain
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:58 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Scatterbrain » Mon May 25, 2020 1:15 pm

My bonus hit mid March and 80% of that gets invested so I timed the market favorably in a sense.

FrankTheViking
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:44 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by FrankTheViking » Mon May 25, 2020 1:16 pm

Kind of. Paid off my car loan that was about 3% interest in 2019.... didn't know much about investing at the time might have kept it otherwise but feels good to be debt free and the market tanked so it was a small win. Decided we did not want an emergency fund in March, wasn't a decision related to the market but ended up lump summing it in when the s&p 500 was around 2550 or so, another small accidental win.

Haven't looked into it but may have made more had I invested as opposed to paying the loan off. Regardless would not want any debt without an emergency fund so it all came full circle in a way.
Last edited by FrankTheViking on Mon May 25, 2020 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
No EF. 80% Total U.S. / 20% Total International. 100% equity. Is there a gun to your head? Is there a tiger in the room? No? What's the problem?

User avatar
Phineas J. Whoopee
Posts: 9675
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2011 6:18 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Mon May 25, 2020 1:17 pm

No, although I did come out substantially ahead once, without attempting to time the market. It was shares of my employer from an incentive stock option. I decided to hold them long enough to qualify for long-term capital gain tax. I chose a floor value I wouldn't tolerate going below.

A month or so before the date came the shares went up, with no obvious reason. Two weeks before the date the company, in a joint statement with another, confirmed rumors we were in merger talks. Our price went up still more (the other company's declined).

Waiting, to minimize tax (with a predetermined rule about conditions under which to abandon that objective), got me more money, but I didn't do it because I thought the price would go up.

So, yes, tax timing profited me, but it was just a matter of luck the sequence worked out that way.

PJW

ping1050
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:55 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by ping1050 » Mon May 25, 2020 1:22 pm

I’m in my mid 30s and 90% stock/10% bonds. Pretty close to the bottom I swapped out my 10% bond holding in vanguard total bond to TSM. I plan to stay 100% equities until I hit 40 as I didn’t blink as our portfolio dropped over 150k. This was all written out in our IPS.

Admittedly I have tried to ‘time’ the market on my annual Backdoor roth IRa contributions (i.e. wait for a down day in the market) and I have not been so lucky. I’m convinced that the day after I buy the market ‘always’ drops at least 1%.

sport
Posts: 9283
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 3:26 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by sport » Mon May 25, 2020 1:39 pm

I harvested tax losses in municipal bond funds on March 23. I hit the exact bottom of the market for the shares I sold. I was able to harvest significant losses.

User avatar
Noobvestor
Posts: 5570
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Noobvestor » Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm

I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

rbaldini
Posts: 1436
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:20 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by rbaldini » Mon May 25, 2020 1:49 pm

dkturner wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.
I wonder how much money you lost (in terms of opportunity cost) by keeping your money in Treasuries prior to this event, relative to perhaps a higher returning investment. Perhaps you still came out ahead - I couldn't say - but the point is that you can come up with a very different answer if you change the time period that you're looking at. It's about the return of the strategy as a whole, not whether you can find instances where it worked out in your favor.

User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by anon_investor » Mon May 25, 2020 1:56 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
How about those I panicked and sold during the March lows, when should I buy back in folks? I have a coworker who falls in that category...

KlangFool
Posts: 16579
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by KlangFool » Mon May 25, 2020 1:59 pm

OP,

My 5/25 band based rebalancing works out pretty well. I do not see why I need other types of "market timing". It works well now. And, it lets me harvest my REIT gain right before the 2008/2009 crashes.

KlangFool

KlangFool
Posts: 16579
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by KlangFool » Mon May 25, 2020 2:01 pm

anon_investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:56 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
How about those I panicked and sold during the March lows, when should I buy back in folks? I have a coworker who falls in that category...
I rebalanced in March low. My 5/25 band told me to do it.

KlangFool

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon May 25, 2020 2:03 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
They’re still around. They won’t be back if we continue up, but if we get another dip they’ll be back in full force. You never hear from them before they make the move. Just after it’s worked out. Except for the one guy “I’m timing the marker due to coronavirus” wonder if he ever got back in ?
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns

User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by anon_investor » Mon May 25, 2020 2:05 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:01 pm
anon_investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:56 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
How about those I panicked and sold during the March lows, when should I buy back in folks? I have a coworker who falls in that category...
I rebalanced in March low. My 5/25 band told me to do it.

KlangFool
Sadly 5/25 bands for some people = sell everything and go into cash...

User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon May 25, 2020 2:06 pm

anon_investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:56 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
How about those I panicked and sold during the March lows, when should I buy back in folks? I have a coworker who falls in that category...
I talked my dad out of that fortunately. He’s always been so rational. I was shocked that he was thinking about bailing. I guess it’s different when you are no longer accumulating and have to live off your portfolio. I have one friend that’s been waiting for the massive crash he’s sure is coming and another that just went all to cash last week. I’m the only idiot I know whose been buying buying buying.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns

User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 7707
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon May 25, 2020 2:07 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
Still here, placed GTC Buy orders to automatically move me back in market. Very pleased with results.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Mon May 25, 2020 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

KlangFool
Posts: 16579
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by KlangFool » Mon May 25, 2020 2:07 pm

anon_investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:05 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:01 pm
anon_investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:56 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
How about those I panicked and sold during the March lows, when should I buy back in folks? I have a coworker who falls in that category...
I rebalanced in March low. My 5/25 band told me to do it.

KlangFool
Sadly 5/25 bands for some people = sell everything and go into cash...
That is why I never worried about the long-term expected return. I can count on regular capitulation to help my portfolio return.

KlangFool

bugleheadd
Posts: 262
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by bugleheadd » Mon May 25, 2020 2:09 pm

calvin+hobbes wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:06 pm
My uncle whom I considered a boglehead philosophically told me in February that he had pulled his entire equity position in to cash shortly after the new year. His reasoning was that valuations were high, the yield curve had inverted and Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum which would be bad for businesses. I was shocked.


He turned out to be correct about a drop but for completely wrong reasons. To my knowledge, this is the first time he has timed the market. I’m guessing he had to pay some gains tax and he certainly avoided a decent haircut.

He is currently on the sidelines. Wonder If he has a plan to get back in. When he does, I am sure he is going to be watching the sensationalist news and thinking about timing it again to avoid the next bear. Hope this “win” doesn’t come back to bite him, decent chance that it will.
he missed out on 30+% gains from the 3/23 lows

chuckb84
Posts: 349
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:41 am
Location: New Mexico

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by chuckb84 » Mon May 25, 2020 2:10 pm

Twice. I correctly timed the peak before both the dot com crash and the housing market crash. I moved into 100% bonds with nearly perfect timing and when everyone fled to bonds we made good money while stocks were just getting hammered.

However, I didn't time the BOTTOMS after those events with anything like the same precision. I was far too reluctant to get back into stocks and missed a lot of gains as the market steadily recovered.

We came out ahead, but not nearly as much as I thought at the time. I saw the profits I made and the losses I avoided in the sudden crashes, but didn't have the wisdom to see the gains I was steadily losing by being to slow to reinvest in markets that were consistently rising, although still rather volatile. An interesting psychology kicks in; you are very reluctant to "risk" the gains you just made by being so clever with timing the peak of the market. There is a constant feeling of "No, not quite yet. I'll wait just a LITTLE longer" while the market rises and rises.

So, those two cases were "good" but they weren't great, because I only did half the job well. In 35 years of investing, those are my only two examples and I haven't done it since.

livesoft
Posts: 71912
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by livesoft » Mon May 25, 2020 2:11 pm

Yes, thanks for asking. See also: viewtopic.php?t=311448
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Jags4186
Posts: 4847
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Jags4186 » Mon May 25, 2020 2:16 pm

calvin+hobbes wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:06 pm
My uncle whom I considered a boglehead philosophically told me in February that he had pulled his entire equity position in to cash shortly after the new year. His reasoning was that valuations were high, the yield curve had inverted and Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum which would be bad for businesses. I was shocked.


He turned out to be correct about a drop but for completely wrong reasons. To my knowledge, this is the first time he has timed the market. I’m guessing he had to pay some gains tax and he certainly avoided a decent haircut.

He is currently on the sidelines. Wonder If he has a plan to get back in. When he does, I am sure he is going to be watching the sensationalist news and thinking about timing it again to avoid the next bear. Hope this “win” doesn’t come back to bite him, decent chance that it will.
Say he sold in mid January 2020 when the SP500 was 3200. It is 2955 today which means he missed a 7.7% drop. He also paid taxes, as you said, on his capital gains. I suspect his smart move will end up costing him money.

annu
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:55 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by annu » Mon May 25, 2020 2:19 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:03 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
They’re still around. They won’t be back if we continue up, but if we get another dip they’ll be back in full force. You never hear from them before they make the move. Just after it’s worked out. Except for the one guy “I’m timing the marker due to coronavirus” wonder if he ever got back in ?
Yep still around, nothing to report back yet, got out, not getting back in this year

User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 2159
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by anon_investor » Mon May 25, 2020 2:19 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:06 pm
anon_investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:56 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
How about those I panicked and sold during the March lows, when should I buy back in folks? I have a coworker who falls in that category...
I talked my dad out of that fortunately. He’s always been so rational. I was shocked that he was thinking about bailing. I guess it’s different when you are no longer accumulating and have to live off your portfolio. I have one friend that’s been waiting for the massive crash he’s sure is coming and another that just went all to cash last week. I’m the only idiot I know whose been buying buying buying.
There are plenty of "idiots" here buying 8-) .

Topic Author
dkturner
Posts: 1585
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:58 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by dkturner » Mon May 25, 2020 2:24 pm

rbaldini wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:49 pm
dkturner wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.
I wonder how much money you lost (in terms of opportunity cost) by keeping your money in Treasuries prior to this event, relative to perhaps a higher returning investment. Perhaps you still came out ahead - I couldn't say - but the point is that you can come up with a very different answer if you change the time period that you're looking at. It's about the return of the strategy as a whole, not whether you can find instances where it worked out in your favor.
Good question. I didn’t know the answer to your question, so I looked it up - as best as I could. I sold all of my corporates (VFIDX) on January 14, 2019 and purchased treasuries (VFIUX) With the proceeds. For the period 1/1/19 through 3/31/20 (these figures are from the Vanguard website) VFIDX (the fund sold) returned 10.01%. VFIUX (the fund bought) returned 13.14%. DAMN! It looks like I made an extra 3% or so on that swap. I had never check on the return on that trade until a few minutes ago.

It’s pure luck, of course.

Topic Author
dkturner
Posts: 1585
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:58 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by dkturner » Mon May 25, 2020 2:25 pm

Deleted duplicate post.

260chrisb
Posts: 510
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 7:26 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by 260chrisb » Mon May 25, 2020 2:28 pm

I sold enough to cover my first two years of retirement in December in an IRA rollover account . It was good timing of course and did it so that I would not have to sell in a down market two years from now when I retire. My plan is to cover my third year at the end of this year provided the market is up and do the same for my fourth at the end of 2021. I've also built cash within my 401K since last year. If markets are not favorable to sell this year or next, I'll draw from my cash holdings which will be enough to cover two years after contributing this year and next.

Funny thing about this market timing; I've been 90% stocks for years and lamented the fact that the cash I'm building and proceeds from the selling I did was certainly going to cost me a LOT of money. If it were in the long term it would perhaps but the money I need in two years is no longer a long term investment. I'm over it and still have a lot set for the long term even after adjusting my level of risk over the past year or so.

Beehave
Posts: 724
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Beehave » Mon May 25, 2020 2:34 pm

I rebalanced as the market went down. As the market rises, I'll do nothing for a while unless it skyrockets, in which case I'll rebalance back down.

If it goes back down significantly at any point I will rebalance again as needed. Disciplined buying during significant market retreats is the perfect antidote to fear-inspired selling.

kabob
Posts: 71
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:01 am
Location: Loudon, Tn

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by kabob » Mon May 25, 2020 2:42 pm

Oh Yea, I missed the dip & am back in... Its really pretty simple... (2007, govt shutdown too, as some others did also),
Image
The Red's the Verifying Indicators(RelativeStrength,MA50,PPO/Macd & Directionals(ADX) - all slapped ya in the face with obvious GetOutaThere indicators - tellin ya get out around $300-295...
The Green's the verifying indicators of recovery -especially the(Yellow!!!) Below the Line PPO BullCross, with RSI & ADX support - BackIn ~$235 ..
Easy Low Hangin Fruit!
Eat your Heart out BoogleBuy&Hopers while Crying in your Losses...
Be Aware - PAYAttention! (after all its your Money)
Technical Analysis has it's rewards! And it aint that hard...
There's the Proof right above!
But there is also a Demanding Requirement - Ya Gotta PayAttention!

I can spell it out more clearly for ya - RSI<50(bad!), PPO/MACD BearCross, plung below zero, Di+ & DI- reversal -
But goin to ChartSchool would do ya better https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php
Last edited by kabob on Mon May 25, 2020 2:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.

MishkaWorries
Posts: 135
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by MishkaWorries » Mon May 25, 2020 2:43 pm

I timed the dotcom bubble almost perfectly. Many co-workers were laughing at me when I sold. Put the money in real estate and did pretty well.

My work retirement account accidentally rode out the 2008 crash. I was too busy with live by the time I realized what was going on, it was too late.

Then in (I don't remember when) 2010-2012 some crisis arise (now I don't remember what and it never materialized anyway) I decided I would go to a conservative allocation. Then more life happened and I missed the market gains.

In 2019 we sold all our investment real estate and I deposited that money in the market last April - June. Now I'm under pressure from the wife to sell if the SPY gets to 3000-3100 to take a little profit and get out of the market. I insist on at least 30% equities for inflation. Then what? Get back in after a drop? Stay in cash? Who knows.

This is the bulk of our retirement money and we are within 5 years of retirement. If it was easy, everyone would be a millionaire.
We plan. G-d laughs.

Elysium
Posts: 2921
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Elysium » Mon May 25, 2020 2:46 pm

dkturner wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.

Anybody else have a recent success story?
I am confused. This is not a success story. You traded a low risk asset with low correlation to equities for a higher risk asset with higher correlation to equities. There were several other risk assets that did much better if all you wanted to do was to trade low risk in exchange for high risk.

Let's see what else did well from March 25, just a few here listed with how many basis points they went up:
Vg Int Inv Grade 870
Vg Corp Bond Idx 1080
Vg Hi Yld Corp 1270
Vg EM Bond Idx 1328
Vg 500 Idx 1977

It appears that you could have had much higher returns with any of those others instead of VFIDX, but you chose the one with lowest returns. This is not a good market timing success story, you got to bet big and win big when you time the market, otherwise it isn't worth it since you simply increased the risk for almost no reward. Imagine if market took another dive then, VFIDX would be dropping along with equities, and you aren't getting a reward on the upside that justifies this risk. You gave up portfolio protection that US Treasuries were giving, and got very little in return.

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 8272
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by whodidntante » Mon May 25, 2020 2:50 pm

Sold some put options once volatility spiked and I realized the insane option premiums the market was offering. All expired worthless so I kept the premiums without having to buy the underlying. I would have went on margin if exercised, but I did have a large bonus coming, some money that was just about to become freed up from savings account bonuses, and pretty good cash flow since COVID-19 had flatlined my expenses so I wouldn't have minded an exercise. I was basically declaring my willingness to buy at those prices, even if I had to borrow temporarily to do it.

Since the puts expired worthless, when my money showed up it went into SCV (mostly). I've since been trimming SCV as it has been enjoying a nice bounce lately, and using the proceeds to buy LCB.

I have a decently large taxable portfolio, so I booked some capital losses that I hope will come in handy later (TLH).

Pretty much back to normal pumped up valuations and I have resumed some semblance of normal buying with cash flow now, but if I see a good risk I'm going to take it. The cratered short term rates have me contemplating different ways I could refinance my mortgage to less than 1%. That might be my next trade.

I like to think the "bear gang" on WSB bought my puts. :twisted: Some of you know what that means. Oh well, maybe they'll get me next time. I shouldn't play results.

WildBill
Posts: 607
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:47 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by WildBill » Mon May 25, 2020 2:56 pm

kabob wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:42 pm
Oh Yea, I missed the dip & am back in... Its really pretty simple... (2007, govt shutdown, as some others also did),
Image
The Red's the Verifying Indicators(RelativeStrength,MA50,PPO/Macd & Directionals(ADX) - all slapped ya in the face with obvious GetOutaThere indicators - tellin ya get out around $300-295...
The Green's the verifying indicatos of recovery -especially the(Yellow!!!) Below the Line PPO BullCross, with RSI & ADX support - BackIn ~$235 ..
Easy Low Hangin Fruit!
Eat your Heart out BoogleBuy&Hopers while Crying in your Losses...
Be Aware - PAYAttention! (after all its your Money)
Technical Analysis has it's rewards! And it aint that hard...
There's the Proof right above!
But there is also a Demanding Requirement - Ya Gatta PayAttention!
Howdy

This one made my day. If you are just kidding us, good job and thanks for the entertainment.

If you are really serious, well done and I assume that with your keen insight and superior methods you are independently wealthy.

My timing consisted of DCA ing into index funds every two weeks for about thirty years. When the market was up, I was rich. When it was down I was buying on sale. Worked great.

Happy candelabra, and pennants, and Iron Crossses, and whatever is the predictive animal entrail of the week to all.

W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid

User avatar
warowits
Posts: 453
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:38 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by warowits » Mon May 25, 2020 2:57 pm

I bought some VTSAX during the third week of March, which was pretty good timing. It was not a regularly scheduled buy, I just couldn't believe how far it had fallen so quickly.


Now I cannot understand why it is so high again.

User avatar
4nursebee
Posts: 1465
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by 4nursebee » Mon May 25, 2020 3:03 pm

I think so but can't tell looking back. Maybe it was luck or fear?
Pale Blue Dot

Ed 2
Posts: 1593
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Ed 2 » Mon May 25, 2020 3:11 pm

runner3081 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:58 pm
I have been dollar cost averaging since about 2006. It has been truly amazing market timing.
Same here . Since 1999. Best market timing. Cheers!
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

User avatar
calvin+hobbes
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:37 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by calvin+hobbes » Mon May 25, 2020 3:15 pm

bugleheadd wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:09 pm
he missed out on 30+% gains from the 3/23 lows
He did, but the story of this market event has not been completely written yet. Even if he comes out "ahead" by his estimation it's the future behavioral and psychological component I'm worried about the most. He still has a several decade time horizon until retirement.
Jags4186 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:16 pm
Say he sold in mid January 2020 when the SP500 was 3200. It is 2955 today which means he missed a 7.7% drop. He also paid taxes, as you said, on his capital gains. I suspect his smart move will end up costing him money.
Probably so, with the potential to lose a lot more going forward depending on when he gets back in.

kabob
Posts: 71
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:01 am
Location: Loudon, Tn

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by kabob » Mon May 25, 2020 4:05 pm

WildBill wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:56 pm
kabob wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:42 pm
Oh Yea, I missed the dip & am back in... Its really pretty simple... (2007, govt shutdown, as some others also did),
Image
The Red's the Verifying Indicators(RelativeStrength,MA50,PPO/Macd & Directionals(ADX) - all slapped ya in the face with obvious GetOutaThere indicators - tellin ya get out around $300-295...
The Green's the verifying indicatos of recovery -especially the(Yellow!!!) Below the Line PPO BullCross, with RSI & ADX support - BackIn ~$235 ..
Easy Low Hangin Fruit!
Eat your Heart out BoogleBuy&Hopers while Crying in your Losses...
Be Aware - PAYAttention! (after all its your Money)
Technical Analysis has it's rewards! And it aint that hard...
There's the Proof right above!
But there is also a Demanding Requirement - Ya Gatta PayAttention!
Howdy
This one made my day. If you are just kidding us, good job and thanks for the entertainment.
If you are really serious, well done and I assume that with your keen insight and superior methods you are independently wealthy.
My timing consisted of DCA ing into index funds every two weeks for about thirty years. When the market was up, I was rich. When it was down I was buying on sale. Worked great.
Happy candelabra, and pennants, and Iron Crossses, and whatever is the predictive animal entrail of the week to all.
W B
This one made my day. - Yea! and it made my YEAR too! (I made that same money Twice!!! (once goin up, and again on recovery!)
If you are really serious.. - Yes, absolutely, ever since ~2003 when I starting using Technical Analysis for LossAvoidance.
And I will add I've also been a Boglehead feedin my investments and retirement regularly for decades also.
I like Bogleism, & practice it - I just augment it with well recognized Technical Analysis and (objective) Market Indicators...
It's just that HoldinLoosers thru that downward slopin 50dayMA that bothers me - and knowing when to join the party again that helps...
I like them Animal Entrails...

(and Catchin that (Yellow) PPO/MACD BullCross below the line - My Favorite!!! - That's a Technical Situation that's made a me a Whole Lotta $$$$
(Literally Juicy Low hangin Fruit! - If Ya PayAttention!)
And that RSI,PPO & ADX is still lookin quite reasinable - but ya gotta PayAttention to see how the market cycle ends....
Last edited by kabob on Mon May 25, 2020 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
1789
Posts: 1476
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:31 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by 1789 » Mon May 25, 2020 4:19 pm

Company started mega backdoor this year. I increased that contribution from 10% to 20% of my paycheck and keeping there. We are talking about 10k or so extra money invested in that time so far. So not a huge opportunity but still something. Another one is i put 5k extra money in 529 and then will take a break on monthly contributions maybe until year end. If we go down again, i may put more (extra) money again.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

heyyou
Posts: 3699
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:58 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by heyyou » Mon May 25, 2020 5:42 pm

Having started buying S&P500 index shares in the new 401k in 1980, since then has been a good time in the market.
Has there been a major market fluctuation this year? Up or down?
Over long periods, those are very common.

SouthernFIRE
Posts: 70
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:24 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by SouthernFIRE » Mon May 25, 2020 8:53 pm

Tax loss harvested on 3/24. Timing was pure luck - first time harvesting losses. Happened to read up on the details and pulled the trigger up 4% during the day. Happy I did since market ended up something like 10% and didn’t look back.

Also did pretty well by over rebalancing during the string of stop-loss days in March and buying with new money from two real estate sales that closed in early March before things really hit the fan. Got really lucky with the timing of those closings before market froze up. I learned from the Dec ‘18 drop/rebound and got the cash in more quickly than this time.

User avatar
BroIceCream
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:31 pm
Location: California

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by BroIceCream » Tue May 26, 2020 12:52 am

SouthernFIRE wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:53 pm
Tax loss harvested on 3/24. Timing was pure luck -
Ditto. My allocation exceeded my rebalancing bands for bonds in my personal IPS, so I sold enough to get in line, and bought small cap value -- and loving the ride back up.

LFKB
Posts: 706
Joined: Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:06 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by LFKB » Tue May 26, 2020 12:58 am

I sold bonds and bought equities at SP 2200 on 3/23

I sold equities and bought bonds at SP 2870

rossington
Posts: 659
Joined: Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:00 am
Location: Florida

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by rossington » Tue May 26, 2020 2:32 am

dkturner wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm
I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term.

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020.

Anybody else have a recent success story?
It's time for you to take a closer look at VWETX.
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.

livesoft
Posts: 71912
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by livesoft » Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 am

The math shows that one doesn't gain much from timing the market in most instances. Suppose the portfolio is 60/40 and one decides to move 10% of the portfolio to change to 70/30. That is, one would have to exchange 25% of one's fixed income into equities. That's already a big deal, but let's say it works and the stock market goes up 10%. In that case, the portfolio gets an extra 1% performance over staying at 60/40.

However, after such a big drop, one's 60/40 portfolio is probably not at 60/40 and more like 50/50. In order to ever keep up with a 60/40 fund such at Vanguard Balanced Index or LifeStrategy Growth, an investor really needs to rebalance back to 60/40 after a drop. We have seen time and time again that many people are proud that they didn't sell, but they didn't rebalance either and just let their portfolio takes its time.

If one was calculating their asset allocation and rebalancing as needed, then it would look like good market timing because one would only be buying equities when they had dropped a lot and would be selling them when they gained a lot. That's only going to happen fleetingly with the market volatility that's been happening in 2020. That is, an investor's fixed income funds would be missing the worst days of the market and their equity funds would be participating in the best days of the market. (Notice what I left out? :twisted:)
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Kow
Posts: 32
Joined: Fri May 27, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Kow » Tue May 26, 2020 5:00 am

I sold out of my equities when S and P was roughly 2400 feeling as if the worst was still to come, used it also to further simplify my equity portfolio from 4-5 ETFs to just VTI and VXUS. I bought back in small blocks with an average equivalent S and P price of around 2300 so made a few % there. In addition I changed my asset allocation from 75/25 to 90/10 at about the same time. It was a super stressful few weeks getting back into the market. All in my total portfolio is down 5% instead of 10-15% from the market highs it would be otherwise.

It worked well enough but won't be doing it again for a while.

User avatar
Noobvestor
Posts: 5570
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Noobvestor » Tue May 26, 2020 5:53 am

annu wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:19 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 2:03 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 1:43 pm
I wonder where all of the 'got out and am DCAing back in' folks went. Or those who were (are?) waiting for things to 'go lower' ... :shock:
They’re still around. They won’t be back if we continue up, but if we get another dip they’ll be back in full force. You never hear from them before they make the move. Just after it’s worked out. Except for the one guy “I’m timing the marker due to coronavirus” wonder if he ever got back in ?
Yep still around, nothing to report back yet, got out, not getting back in this year
That's bold. I hope it works out for you, but seems very risky to me. Other markets are still down, but US has almost entirely rebounded. For those curious about tracking the results, care to say when you sold out and then update us when you get back in?
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

Poorman
Posts: 119
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by Poorman » Tue May 26, 2020 6:07 am

I bought around 50k vtsax on the low. Should have bought more but taking in more money would put me in a higher tax bracket offsetting some of the to be gains...

ValuationsMatter
Posts: 340
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:12 am

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Post by ValuationsMatter » Tue May 26, 2020 10:28 am

Was almost entirely out of equities in December. DCA'd back in while markets tanked. Made it to 70/30 with a cost basis in the S&P of just less than 2,540. Sold back down to 50/50 at ~2,840, effectively pushing my remaining equity cost basis just less than 2,400. I have stayed at 50/50, since. I expected a retest of the lows, but it doesn't appear to be heading that direction. I still see more downside than up, and I do not believe we will sustainably regain the peak (S&P 3,393) for another year or more.

I'm delighted to have captured significant returns with reduced exposure. I'm delighted if we continue upwards, though I will continue to pare back my equity position if/as we approach the peak. I am also prepared to increase my equity position if we retest the lows. I remain satisfied at 50/50.

Post Reply