Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

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rockthisworld
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Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 3:31 am

Hello all. I figured I’d ask the bogleheads on this issue. I was watching Jeremiah Babe on YouTube and he was saying that we will see hyperinflation and the dollar loses value and says that the stock market is rigged and we should hedge with gold or silver. As a concerned investor do you think America could end up like Brazil, Venezuela,Greece and potentially see another Great Depression stocks drop 90% before we rebuild?
Here is a reference video https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lGKgyi4d2Fo

He actually is very informational and it makes a lot of sense what he says. So why is there such a disconnect between the economy and stock market? And are any of you guys worried about the uncertainty of the future after watching this video?

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Stinky
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Stinky » Mon May 25, 2020 5:10 am

You’re getting investment advice from some guy on YouTube? From looking at recent videos, he sure sounds like a “sky is falling, and we’re all doomed” kind of guy.

Most Bogleheads would point you here for financial advice:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_ ... nd_reviews
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Forester » Mon May 25, 2020 6:07 am

I wouldn't listen to the goldbugs on inflation. I would own gold after studying the Permanent Portfolio variations. Goldbugs make me want to sell gold because they smell of dumb money. You should figure out how much you want, 5% to 25%, write it down in your investment plan then ignore the noise.

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rockthisworld
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 6:18 am

I would like to add 5% gold to my portfolio. He does provide some interesting information and it makes sense but I’m staying mostly VTSAX.
I don’t even know where to add gold.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by typical.investor » Mon May 25, 2020 6:29 am

Advice on YouTube hahaha. You know “the world is flat” type promotion is a big part of their business model. Non-sense retains viewers which increases ad revenue.

Sorry...just tired of YouTube junked being pushed in my direction.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by columbia » Mon May 25, 2020 6:33 am

Who is Jeremiah Babe and why would he be expected to properly predict inflation rates?

(A partial answer is that he’s a real estate agent.)
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by DesertDiva » Mon May 25, 2020 6:43 am

columbia wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:33 am
Who is Jeremiah Babe and why would he be expected to properly predict inflation rates?

(A partial answer is that he’s a real estate agent.)
Or Jeremiah Babe is the OP and he's just looking for more YouTube views...
#justsaying
#clickbait

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Leesbro63 » Mon May 25, 2020 6:45 am

Never understood a single word he said...

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by nisiprius » Mon May 25, 2020 6:53 am

Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either.

Source: World Bank

Annual inflation in Brazil,
2019: 3.73%
2018: 3.67%
2017: 3.45%
2016: 8.74%
2015: 9.03%
2014: 6.33%
2013: 6.20%
2012: 5.40%
2011: 6.64%
2010: 5.04%
Last edited by nisiprius on Mon May 25, 2020 7:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by typical.investor » Mon May 25, 2020 6:59 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:31 am
So why is there such a disconnect between the economy and stock market?
The stock market is forward looking.

Today’s price includes much future earnings.

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Mon May 25, 2020 7:06 am

Jeremiah 20:5 says:

"And I will let your enemies plunder Jerusalem. All the famed treasures of the city—the precious jewels and gold and silver of your kings—will be carried off to Babylon."

So, you see, it's pointless.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by nisiprius » Mon May 25, 2020 7:07 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:31 am
...So why is there such a disconnect between the economy and stock market?...
Actually, "The Indicator from Planet Money" had a very good episode on this just this week. If you are trying to understand, it's really worth listening to (ten minutes). Short answer: it's the composition of the stock market:
Because by a fluke of history, it just so happens that the companies that are the best positioned for the environment we find ourselves in and what we will find ourselves in over the next six months to a year, the companies that are best positioned happen to already be the largest weighted components of the indices.
The Stocks are Up but the Economy's Down

I like this, even better than Benjamin Graham's "Mr. Market:"
JOSH BROWN: Now I'm going to give you my favorite analogy. So a woman is walking through Central Park, and she's got a dog. What's a very active kind of dog?

VANEK SMITH: Oh, like a Jack Russell terrier or something like that.

BROWN: Fine. Jack Russell terrier is great. If you just looked at her, what is she doing? She's taking normal steps. She's going in a straight line. She's, you know, walking upright at a moderate pace, nothing terribly exciting. Then let your eyes pan down a little bit. Look at the dog. The dog is going crazy. It's chasing birds. It's digging up clumps of mud. It's running at trees. It's [marking territory] all over the place. The dog is the stock market. The woman is the economy....

GARCIA: Yeah, Josh's point is that the stock market and the economy usually end up in the same place just like the lady and her crazy dog, but that there are times when they do not act or look the same at all.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 7:28 am

nisiprius wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:53 am
Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either.

Source: World Bank

Annual inflation in Brazil,
2019: 3.73%
2018: 3.67%
2017: 3.45%
2016: 8.74%
2015: 9.03%
2014: 6.33%
2013: 6.20%
2012: 5.40%
2011: 6.64%
2010: 5.04%
What is Brazil stock returns since 2010?

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rockthisworld
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 7:31 am

typical.investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:59 am
rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:31 am
So why is there such a disconnect between the economy and stock market?
The stock market is forward looking.

Today’s price includes much future earnings.
That’s flawed markets must be inefficient. Guessing future earnings could be under the projected earnings.

And feds can’t keep up with all this 💵 printing will be paid back through taxes and inflation.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by JMacDonald » Mon May 25, 2020 7:33 am

columbia wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:33 am
Who is Jeremiah Babe and why would he be expected to properly predict inflation rates?

(A partial answer is that he’s a real estate agent.)
https://www.realtor.com/realestateagent ... _ca_396632
Best Wishes, | Joe

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rockthisworld
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 7:46 am

He makes a lot of interesting points. Maybe stocks won’t crash 90% like in the Great Depression however when there are hard facts and the dominos are beginning to fall and the fed trying to increase lending programs and buying everything and we have 40 million unemployed and continuing to grow and when the economy comes back it will be so slow to add jobs we are going to be in a rough decade ahead before we get back on track. We look at pensions and social security that will continue to be robbed from us.

So even if it’s doesn’t mean doomsday I am trying to prepare for a bigger crash than just the 50% that we should always be weary of if we are investing in stocks. Today’s risk is greater than that. I don’t think going into bonds is quite the safe haven to diversify right now either. Only thing I can think of is diversify between world stocks, us stocks, and some gold?

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Blue456 » Mon May 25, 2020 7:53 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:28 am
nisiprius wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:53 am
Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either.

Source: World Bank

Annual inflation in Brazil,
2019: 3.73%
2018: 3.67%
2017: 3.45%
2016: 8.74%
2015: 9.03%
2014: 6.33%
2013: 6.20%
2012: 5.40%
2011: 6.64%
2010: 5.04%
What is Brazil stock returns since 2010?
That's irrelevant.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon May 25, 2020 7:55 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:46 am
Maybe stocks won’t crash 90% like in the Great Depression however when there are hard facts and the dominos are beginning to fall and the fed trying to increase lending programs and buying everything and we have 40 million unemployed and continuing to grow and when the economy comes back it will be so slow to add jobs we are going to be in a rough decade ahead before we get back on track.
I wasn't sure if this was a rap song or a sentence... :mrgreen:
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by minimalistmarc » Mon May 25, 2020 8:08 am

CyclingDuo wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:55 am
rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:46 am
Maybe stocks won’t crash 90% like in the Great Depression however when there are hard facts and the dominos are beginning to fall and the fed trying to increase lending programs and buying everything and we have 40 million unemployed and continuing to grow and when the economy comes back it will be so slow to add jobs we are going to be in a rough decade ahead before we get back on track.
I wasn't sure if this was a rap song or a sentence... :mrgreen:
[/quote.]

Sounds like Eminem

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Blue456 » Mon May 25, 2020 8:14 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:46 am
Only thing I can think of is diversify between world stocks, us stocks, and some gold?
You don't need gold to protect you from hyperinflation. International stocks should do it. As a matter of fact how do you know that the stocks of the country that is undergoing hyperinflation will not keep up with it?

I like gold, but I have several issues with it. I plugged it several times into portfolio visualizer and I noticed that there are periods of 20 years of underperformance. And while my long term investment horizon is 40-50 years, I really don't think I can keep up with that kind of tracking error. I am thinking about buying some physical gold but storage is an issue. Where would I place it?

I am fortunate to be a dual citizen. I am looking forward to buying property in my other country and hire a company to manage it.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by HenryPorter » Mon May 25, 2020 8:32 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:31 am
potentially see another Great Depression stocks drop 90% before we rebuild?
Look into purchasing shares of SH, PSQ, or DOG potentially. They are ETFs that go up in price when the market index goes down. They are 1x inverse ETFs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively. If you are concerned that the market will drop a lot, having these shares in your portfolio will buffer the portfolio's decline. The thing is, this market can stay up and maybe go sideways a lot longer than the patience of shorting it will tolerate. So, be mindful that yes, if the sky is falling, going short on the market will yield gains. But markets reverse swiftly too and if you are loaded up with a position that is betting the market goes down, your shares of a short ETF will drop in price. Study the price charts of SH and see how it behaved after March 23 2020.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 9:17 am

Would I be better to diversify into European stock market index?
75% VTSAX
20% VEURX
2.5% gold
2.5% cds

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by Forester » Mon May 25, 2020 9:53 am

nisiprius wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:53 am
Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either.

Source: World Bank

Annual inflation in Brazil,
2019: 3.73%
2018: 3.67%
2017: 3.45%
2016: 8.74%
2015: 9.03%
2014: 6.33%
2013: 6.20%
2012: 5.40%
2011: 6.64%
2010: 5.04%
With respect I think those numbers undercut your point, looks like a hefty haircut of purchasing power.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by typical.investor » Mon May 25, 2020 10:04 am

Forester wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:53 am
nisiprius wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 6:53 am
Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either.

Source: World Bank

Annual inflation in Brazil,
2019: 3.73%
2018: 3.67%
2017: 3.45%
2016: 8.74%
2015: 9.03%
2014: 6.33%
2013: 6.20%
2012: 5.40%
2011: 6.64%
2010: 5.04%
With respect I think those numbers undercut your point, looks like a hefty haircut of purchasing power.
Inflation in Emerging Countries including Brazil is trending down.

In 1995 median inflation among emerging markets was over 10%. By 2017 it was only 3.3%

The gap between median inflation rates in DM and EM economies has fallen materially, from 10-15 percentage points in the first half of the 1990s to 2-3 percentage points from the early 2000s onwards

Unless China and the US decouple economically, I don’t see inflation as a huge concern. Of course it will be for Eastern Africa and maybe elsewhere with food prices, but we are in a demand shock for most things. See oil.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 10:45 am

typical.investor wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:04 am
[quote=Forester post_id=5273119 time=<a href="tel:1590418429">1590418429</a> user_id=144220]
[quote=nisiprius post_id=5272836 time=<a href="tel:1590407614">1590407614</a> user_id=2820]
Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either.

Source: World Bank

Annual inflation in Brazil,
2019: 3.73%
2018: 3.67%
2017: 3.45%
2016: 8.74%
2015: 9.03%
2014: 6.33%
2013: 6.20%
2012: 5.40%
2011: 6.64%
2010: 5.04%
With respect I think those numbers undercut your point, looks like a hefty haircut of purchasing power.
[/quote]

Inflation in Emerging Countries including Brazil is trending down.

In 1995 median inflation among emerging markets was over 10%. By 2017 it was only 3.3%

The gap between median inflation rates in DM and EM economies has fallen materially, from 10-15 percentage points in the first half of the 1990s to 2-3 percentage points from the early 2000s onwards

Unless China and the US decouple economically, I don’t see inflation as a huge concern. Of course it will be for Eastern Africa and maybe elsewhere with food prices, but we are in a demand shock for most things. See oil.
[/quote]

With respect, you don’t think all this money printing would lead to higher inflation or higher taxes thus cutting into future purchasing power and future economic growth?

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rockthisworld
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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by rockthisworld » Mon May 25, 2020 10:46 am

Look up the financial argument they think that the global financial system will collapse. It’s scary thinking and realizing that it may be a possibility. Or at least a huge crash.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Mon May 25, 2020 10:52 am

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 7:06 am
Jeremiah 20:5 says:

"And I will let your enemies plunder Jerusalem. All the famed treasures of the city—the precious jewels and gold and silver of your kings—will be carried off to Babylon."

So, you see, it's pointless.
Checkmate, goldbugs :D

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by unclescrooge » Mon May 25, 2020 10:54 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 3:31 am
Hello all. I figured I’d ask the bogleheads on this issue. I was watching Jeremiah Babe on YouTube and he was saying that we will see hyperinflation and the dollar loses value and says that the stock market is rigged and we should hedge with gold or silver. As a concerned investor do you think America could end up like Brazil, Venezuela,Greece and potentially see another Great Depression stocks drop 90% before we rebuild?
Here is a reference video https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lGKgyi4d2Fo

He actually is very informational and it makes a lot of sense what he says. So why is there such a disconnect between the economy and stock market? And are any of you guys worried about the uncertainty of the future after watching this video?
Maybe you could listen to Peter Schiff videos from 2008 for similar details on why hyperinflation and collapse of the Dollar was imminent, and report back on why none of those arguments panned out.

Every time there's a recession, the goldbugs come out of the woodwork predicting the same thing.

I own a but of physical gold, and a have a 6% ETF allocation in my portfolio, but I don't think we will ever see high inflation (except in stocks and real estate).

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by unclescrooge » Mon May 25, 2020 10:57 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:45 am
With respect, you don’t think all this money printing would lead to higher inflation or higher taxes thus cutting into future purchasing power and future economic growth?
Money printing in developed countries has been shown to be deflationary. Simple gift had a link to a paper regarding this recently.

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Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Post by LadyGeek » Mon May 25, 2020 11:14 am

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