Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

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hoops777
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Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

Post by hoops777 » Sun May 10, 2020 5:11 pm

I have been thinking of getting out and this might be a good time since prices have recovered some.
Any guesses on the direction of this fund with all the state expenditures with covid?
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

MotoTrojan
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Re: Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun May 10, 2020 5:13 pm

I don't have the knowledge, skill, or time to determine the expected path from here so if I were interested I would trust the market has appropriately decided on a fair yield given the expected path from here. I don't market-time stocks, but I especially don't time bonds; at-least with stocks there is are strong reasons it should eventually go one way verse the other...

theorist
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Re: Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

Post by theorist » Sun May 10, 2020 5:19 pm

hoops777 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 5:11 pm
I have been thinking of getting out and this might be a good time since prices have recovered some.
Any guesses on the direction of this fund with all the state expenditures with covid?
No guesses, it has held up well this year (there were maybe two worrisome weeks of losses, which it quickly gained back) and I’m holding a good portion of my bonds in my taxable account in this fund. I don’t plan to change.

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tooluser
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Re: Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

Post by tooluser » Sun May 10, 2020 5:34 pm

To date Californians have shown a high tolerance for high taxes and tax increases of almost any kind, so there's a good chance any economic shortfalls will be made up. California is not one of the hardest hit states by virus as a percent of population. The state also has an emergency fund they have built up over the years, though whether the money will actually be spent for economic recovery reasons is anybody's guess.

I live in California but do not own VCAIX, though it would have been more lucrative than: I own VTEB because it's a 50-state fund and I wanted to spread out the specific state risk.

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hoops777
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Re: Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

Post by hoops777 » Sun May 10, 2020 6:56 pm

Who knows what is going to happen with anything now.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Kevin M
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Re: Thoughts currently on VCAIX?

Post by Kevin M » Sun May 10, 2020 6:56 pm

theorist wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 5:19 pm
<snip> (there were maybe two worrisome weeks of losses, which it quickly gained back) <snip>
The "bond crash" started on 3/9, and VCAIX bottomed out on 3/20 with a return since 3/9 of about -10.5%. As of 5/10 the return since 3/9 is about -3.3%, so it has not "quickly gained back" all of the loss yet, although it did quickly gain back much of it by 3/27, at which point the return was about -3.2% (it has lost a bit since then).

Image

As to the OP, I sold much of my Admiral shares version of this fund to rebalance into stocks when it was down about 2% since 3/9--stocks were down much more. I am holding the relatively small amount I have left.

Kevin
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