[Investment strategy from this point forward]

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striker79
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[Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by striker79 »

A lot of experts are saying our economy could be like this for years, half a decade even. The stock market seems to be assuming a fast recovery, and a vaccine. We don't even know if we will have a vaccine a year from now, we are just guessing we will. Blindly buying S&p 500 index funds don't seem to be a good idea because you know there are clearly sectors that will be severely damaged over time from this - airlines, cruises, disney, restaurants, etc and you know there will be clear winners from this - mostly tech like Amazon, Netflix. What are you guys doing to best capitalize on this? If you were to do an index fund, should you just invest in nasdaq now because tech should continue to do well in this coronavirus economy? Or should we be sitting in cash like Buffett, knowing that the market hasnt appropriately priced in resurgent waves followed by resurgent economic lockdowns?
jebmke
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by jebmke »

I'm doing nothing. I have not hit a re-balance trigger on the downside so there is nothing for me to do but go for a nice long walk.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
stocknoob4111
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I am still contributing to my 401k as before, not changing anything. Yes, the market seems to be misaligned with the realities of the economy, however, a lot of bad news has already been priced in and it isn't going to be a shock anymore...the shock already happened in March. My guess is that we just bounce around in a range (2800?-2950?) for a long time - 6-12 months before finally going up again.
Last edited by stocknoob4111 on Thu May 07, 2020 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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nps
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by nps »

How sure are you that airlines, cruise lines, Disney will go lower and Amazon, Netflix will go higher?
BV3273
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by BV3273 »

I defer to my magic 8 ball. My crystal ball is in the shop still.
Halicar
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by Halicar »

If right now the market is not able to recognize "clear" winners and losers, why assume that it will in the future?
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ruralavalon
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by ruralavalon »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 11:44 am A lot of experts are saying our economy could be like this for years, half a decade even. The stock market seems to be assuming a fast recovery, and a vaccine. We don't even know if we will have a vaccine a year from now, we are just guessing we will. Blindly buying S&p 500 index funds don't seem to be a good idea because you know there are clearly sectors that will be severely damaged over time from this - airlines, cruises, disney, restaurants, etc and you know there will be clear winners from this - mostly tech like Amazon, Netflix. What are you guys doing to best capitalize on this? If you were to do an index fund, should you just invest in nasdaq now because tech should continue to do well in this coronavirus economy? Or should we be sitting in cash like Buffett, knowing that the market hasnt appropriately priced in resurgent waves followed by resurgent economic lockdowns?
I don't believe that is at all "clear" .

We continue to use Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX).

If I wanted to invest more heavily in tech companies (I don't) I would use Vanguard Information Technology Index (VITAX), not an index of the random stocks that just happen to be traded on the NASDAQ.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
Topic Author
striker79
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by striker79 »

The market has already recognized winners and losers. Your general index fund has been recovering due to the outperformance by the winners. Amazon is up 40% in just 2 months when it hit its lows. Netflix up 47% in the same time period. Southwest airlines down another 17% since that March general market low. I think there are clear winners and losers, we can see that from social distancing. This is not rocket science.
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1789
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by 1789 »

It is very hard to say what will happen to markets. But one things is clear. Economy is pretty messed up right now. I tend to think market recovery is ahead of economic recovery.
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climber2020
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by climber2020 »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:12 pm The market has already recognized winners and losers. Your general index fund has been recovering due to the outperformance by the winners. Amazon is up 40% in just 2 months when it hit its lows. Netflix up 47% in the same time period. Southwest airlines down another 17% since that March general market low. I think there are clear winners and losers, we can see that from social distancing. This is not rocket science.
Am I correct in assuming you want to put your money on past winners? That would mean buying stocks that have gone up a whole lot recently, which in general is the opposite of what you want to do. Ideally, you want to put your money on the current losers that will end up being winners in the future. Like betting all your money on Apple in the late 1990s.

If you think you can identify those, I pose an experiment. Take your liquid net worth and divide it in half. Put one half in a Total Stock fund and don't touch it. With the other half, buy stocks that you think will do well and trade as frequently as you see fit. Over time, you can track the progress of each pot and interpret the results as you see fit.
minimalistmarc
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by minimalistmarc »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 11:44 am A lot of experts are saying our economy could be like this for years, half a decade even. The stock market seems to be assuming a fast recovery, and a vaccine. We don't even know if we will have a vaccine a year from now, we are just guessing we will. Blindly buying S&p 500 index funds don't seem to be a good idea because you know there are clearly sectors that will be severely damaged over time from this - airlines, cruises, disney, restaurants, etc and you know there will be clear winners from this - mostly tech like Amazon, Netflix. What are you guys doing to best capitalize on this? If you were to do an index fund, should you just invest in nasdaq now because tech should continue to do well in this coronavirus economy? Or should we be sitting in cash like Buffett, knowing that the market hasnt appropriately priced in resurgent waves followed by resurgent economic lockdowns?
The Sp500 price is the messy amalgamation of all of your experts opinion. The SP500 is the expert.
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striker79
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by striker79 »

Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
jebmke
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by jebmke »

I think most of the posters so far are simply saying they don't know how to pick a short term winner. If someone chimes in who has any specific suggestions, make sure to ask them how their suggestions fared in 2008, 2000, 1987 .....
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by LadyGeek »

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general investing). I retitled the thread.

Please stay on-topic, which is your investments. Coronavirus discussions are off-topic. See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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rockstar
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by rockstar »

jebmke wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:41 pm I think most of the posters so far are simply saying they don't know how to pick a short term winner. If someone chimes in who has any specific suggestions, make sure to ask them how their suggestions fared in 2008, 2000, 1987 .....
I bought a lot of preferred stock in 08. I did okay. I could have done better.

I really don’t know what to do. I’m tilting toward tech with a bigger QQQ position when I bought back in. I have no clue what to do when my CDs mature. I don’t really want to buy junk.
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climber2020
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by climber2020 »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy.
Anyone who knows this isn't going to post it on a public forum and tell the entire world. For stock picking to work, you need a competitive advantage against everyone else who is also picking stocks, and it would make no sense for an individual who has absolute knowledge that a stock is going to rise to share that lucrative information with total strangers on the internet.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by tvubpwcisla »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 11:44 am A lot of experts are saying our economy could be like this for years, half a decade even. The stock market seems to be assuming a fast recovery, and a vaccine. We don't even know if we will have a vaccine a year from now, we are just guessing we will. Blindly buying S&p 500 index funds don't seem to be a good idea because you know there are clearly sectors that will be severely damaged over time from this - airlines, cruises, disney, restaurants, etc and you know there will be clear winners from this - mostly tech like Amazon, Netflix. What are you guys doing to best capitalize on this? If you were to do an index fund, should you just invest in nasdaq now because tech should continue to do well in this coronavirus economy? Or should we be sitting in cash like Buffett, knowing that the market hasnt appropriately priced in resurgent waves followed by resurgent economic lockdowns?
Not trying to simplify things; however, I would just keep purchasing low cost index funds and maybe even some of your favorites equities and don't look back. Buy as often and as much as you can. Think long term, relax, and keep investing! You will be happy down the road.

:moneybag
Stay invested my friends.
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ruralavalon
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by ruralavalon »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
Short-term strategies are often a mistake. Short-term investing is market timing.

Investing for the long-term is the thoughtful strategy, and a good principle to follow in my opinion.
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LadyGeek
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by LadyGeek »

Watch this video: The Stock Market vs. The Economy, by Ben Felix.

"Economic data should not play a role in informing investment decisions."

From below: "The stock market is not the economy. The economy is not the stock market."

Credit to: Subject: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
kmft wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 10:46 am
HedgeFundMillionaire wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 7:58 am Anyone else growing increasingly concerned by this rally? It just seems a little too good to be true given the damage done by the Cornavirus. I'm still very much in this strategy but we're pretty much where we were a year ago on SPX, but the outlook is pretty bleak.
"The stock market is not the economy. The economy is not the stock market."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0
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asif408
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by asif408 »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy ....
You lost me right after this statement. If you need a short-term investment and you're investing in stocks, by definition there are no guarantees. Good luck. I'd stick money under the mattress or in a savings account if I need it for the short term.
Robot Monster
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by Robot Monster »

Economist Mohamed El-Erian says, "Investors should be buying individual stocks, not indexes because there is still more coronavirus-driven volatility ahead...If you feel it’s the all clear, go out and buy the index ... I don’t think we’re there yet...El-Erian said investors should sell companies that could go bankrupt and buy those with “rock-solid balance sheets.”"
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/mohamed ... uying.html

El-Erian says he wouldn’t buy into market yet, but offers a plan for those who feel they must...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/mohamed ... arket.html
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by Fallible »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. ...
There's nothing simple about what you're asking - nothing simple about short-term strategies; nothing simple about planning anything based on the unknown arrival of a vaccine, any vaccine; and nothing simple about knowing for certain what businesses will do well in a historically ravaged economy. There is a simple reason for all this: nobody knows the future, nobody.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Robot Monster
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by Robot Monster »

Fallible wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:25 pm
striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. ...
There's nothing simple about what you're asking - nothing simple about short-term strategies; nothing simple about planning anything based on the unknown arrival of a vaccine, any vaccine; and nothing simple about knowing for certain what businesses will do well in a historically ravaged economy. There is a simple reason for all this: nobody knows the future, nobody.
If only there was someone who could offer the simple short term solution people want...oh, wait...

Jim Cramer reveals his ‘Mad Covid-19 Index’ of stocks for this ‘tricky environment’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/jim-cra ... nment.html
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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greg24
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by greg24 »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pmIm simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine
Here is both a short term and long term strategy:

Select a reasonable asset allocation, such as 60/40. Buy as much as possible each month.

The end.

Your ability to time the market and predict the future were not enhanced by a worldwide pandemic.
index245
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by index245 »

Can you read and understand financial statements? I can, but still don't trust myself for long term investing in individual stocks.

Then you need to do a deep dive, as some of those in obvious "winning" sectors are still not companies that should be invested in. If you have the time, go for it.
aristotelian
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by aristotelian »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
One person's "clear losers" are another person's "value stocks". The market has already priced in 70% hits to the airlines. What do you know about the future that the market doesn't know that will be even worse than that? How do you know that AMZN and the "coronavirus stocks" are not overbought?
magicrat
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by magicrat »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
Which of these principles resemble religious teachings?

1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course
DonIce
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by DonIce »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
So you don't think that the current price of airlines and cruiselines are low enough? You don't think that people have already noticed the problems facing these industries and their shares have declined accordingly?
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striker79
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by striker79 »

Thanks Robot Monster. All these people posting on here are just clueless. Good to see Jim Cramer agrees. Individual stocks is the way to go, if you index then nasdaq is the way to go. I will be doing individual stocks. Im sure stock pickers right now will beat the pants off of indexers until we have a normal economy/vaccine.
Halicar
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by Halicar »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:06 pm Thanks Robot Monster. All these people posting on here are just clueless. Good to see Jim Cramer agrees. Individual stocks is the way to go, if you index then nasdaq is the way to go. I will be doing individual stocks. Im sure stock pickers right now will beat the pants off of indexers until we have a normal economy/vaccine.
Jim Cramer has a long history of underperformance. I guess this new set of picks will be a good opportunity to see if he can reverse that trend.
ausmatt
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by ausmatt »

I made the following adjustments a month or so ago (all of which are within the ranges I setup in my investment plan years ago):

- exited my high yield debt (SJNK) in exchange for long term investment grade debt (I have a written trigger on when I want to do this based on the ice baml spread for HY)
- paired back my muni investments (VTEB) in exchange for money market or mid term debt
- allocated new capital to specific names (MSFT, AMZN, ZM, WORK to name a few) - individual names are <5% of my portfolio
- rebalanced / tax loss harvested where possible
- weighted to some value indexes

Overall, not a lot of major moves. And basically went toward the lower end of my allocation guidelines in my investment plan for certain categories.
Halicar
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by Halicar »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:35 pm
Fallible wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:25 pm
striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. ...
There's nothing simple about what you're asking - nothing simple about short-term strategies; nothing simple about planning anything based on the unknown arrival of a vaccine, any vaccine; and nothing simple about knowing for certain what businesses will do well in a historically ravaged economy. There is a simple reason for all this: nobody knows the future, nobody.
If only there was someone who could offer the simple short term solution people want...oh, wait...

Jim Cramer reveals his ‘Mad Covid-19 Index’ of stocks for this ‘tricky environment’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/jim-cra ... nment.html
I think that, just out of curiosity, I'm going to track the performance of the "Covid 19 index." Would Cramer recommend owning these cap-weighted, or just buying equal dollar amounts of each?
magicrat
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by magicrat »

Might be nice if he had a timeframe too, though I suppose any specificity would expose him further
Last edited by magicrat on Fri May 08, 2020 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
patrick
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by patrick »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:12 pmThe market has already recognized winners and losers. Your general index fund has been recovering due to the outperformance by the winners. Amazon is up 40% in just 2 months when it hit its lows. Netflix up 47% in the same time period. Southwest airlines down another 17% since that March general market low. I think there are clear winners and losers, we can see that from social distancing. This is not rocket science.
When I first read through this comment it looked like you were arguing against your original post. If you don't see why, it's because returns you quoted show that the market already expects Amazon and Netflix to be winners, and already expects airlines to be losers. If you (more or less) share that assessment, that means you (more or less) agree with the market.

If you "blindly" buy the index you are already putting a lot in tech companies and very little in airlines. Amazon alone is about 3.6% of the total market index, Netflix is around 0.6%, and Southwest is less than 0.05%.

I suppose what you meant was that things will turn out even better for Netflix and Amazon than the market expects and/or even worse for airlines than the market expects. Your prediction might be right, but don't forget that tech companies have risks too (antitrust regulation, privacy regulation, piracy, etc.) and government might rescue the airlines.
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vineviz
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by vineviz »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
The best strategy is the same as it ever was: realize you know nothing about the future that everyone else doesn’t also know and invest accordingly.

Buy a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds that is allocated in a way that supports your long-term goals and comports with your risk tolerance.

In other words, just buy the market and move on.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
EFF_fan81
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by EFF_fan81 »

index245 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:54 pm Can you read and understand financial statements? I can, but still don't trust myself for long term investing in individual stocks.

Then you need to do a deep dive, as some of those in obvious "winning" sectors are still not companies that should be invested in. If you have the time, go for it.
Also consider:

How much time does it take for you to do that deep dive?
How much of your portfolio are you willing to allocate to that bet (experts recommend no more than 10%)?
What is the likely risk-adjusted overperformance from that bet?
How does that compare to your hourly rate for working (assuming additional investments in career will pay dividends even if salary is fixed)?

It's really not very logical unless your portfolio is very large but your earning power it not. So it's only logical to do it if you think it is so fun you are willing to do it instead of other free time activities or you expect the learning from the experience to compound to your benefit.

For me, I spend too much time sitting staring at screens for work & play anyways, no reason to concoct another justification to do so. Better to go for a jog and then have a beer on the porch. On that note, goodbye for now. :sharebeer :sharebeer
patrick
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by patrick »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:06 pm I will be doing individual stocks. Im sure stock pickers right now will beat the pants off of indexers until we have a normal economy/vaccine.
Stock pickers in the aggregate have no chance to beat indexers because they have the same aggregate portfolio as indexers. Indexers follow the market as a whole. Indexers currently own about 25% of every stock, so stock pickers must own about 75% of every stock. If the market values Amazon at 79 times as much as Southwest (as it currently does), then indexers have 79 times as much in Amazon as in Southwest, and stock pickers also have 79 times as much in Amazon as in Southwest (because they the same percentage of Amazon's huge market cap as they do of Southwest's much smaller market cap).

If Amazon ends up beating Southwest, then the stock pickers who favored Amazon will beat the index, but the stock pickers who favored Southwest will do worse than the index. If Southwest ends up beating Amazon instead, then the stock pickers who favored Southwest will beat the index, but the stock pickers who favored Amazon will do worse than the index. Either way, stock pickers in the aggregate equal the index (before costs are accounted for).
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climber2020
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by climber2020 »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:06 pm Individual stocks is the way to go, if you index then nasdaq is the way to go. I will be doing individual stocks. Im sure stock pickers right now will beat the pants off of indexers until we have a normal economy/vaccine.
striker79 wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:50 am I would be investing all the money as a lump sum into the market, as time in the market beats timing the market.
You posted the second quote a few years ago. When did your investing approach change?

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:06 pm Good to see Jim Cramer agrees.
Ignoring all details, think about this logically: if Cramer could consistently pick future winners, he would be on a private island trying to spend 100 billion dollars instead of wasting his time working a day job as a TV show frontman (great article from a few years ago about this here).
index245
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by index245 »

EFF_fan81 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 4:33 pm
index245 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:54 pm Can you read and understand financial statements? I can, but still don't trust myself for long term investing in individual stocks.

Then you need to do a deep dive, as some of those in obvious "winning" sectors are still not companies that should be invested in. If you have the time, go for it.
Also consider:

How much time does it take for you to do that deep dive?
How much of your portfolio are you willing to allocate to that bet (experts recommend no more than 10%)?
What is the likely risk-adjusted overperformance from that bet?
How does that compare to your hourly rate for working (assuming additional investments in career will pay dividends even if salary is fixed)?

It's really not very logical unless your portfolio is very large but your earning power it not. So it's only logical to do it if you think it is so fun you are willing to do it instead of other free time activities or you expect the learning from the experience to compound to your benefit.

For me, I spend too much time sitting staring at screens for work & play anyways, no reason to concoct another justification to do so. Better to go for a jog and then have a beer on the porch. On that note, goodbye for now. :sharebeer :sharebeer
Good points, I agree. Too much time, with no long term guarantee of success. Mutual fund managers stock pick for a living. They are also generally smart and versed in this (despite what some might believe!). And they still lose to the market more often than not long term.

Warren Buffett puts it better than I do:
“If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don’t, then dollar-cost average into index funds.”

I've chosen the latter.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by Triple digit golfer »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 11:44 am...you know there are clearly sectors that will be severely damaged over time from this...
That is exactly why I do buy broad market index funds. I don't concentrate to any sectors.
stocknoob4111
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by stocknoob4111 »

The stock market may not be the economy but it is based on sentiment about the economy... ultimately if the economy does not match the projections of the market the decline will be sudden and shocking... so while there may be disconnect now eventually both the economy and stock market will wind up in the same place, which is at the bottom in my opinion!!
260chrisb
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by 260chrisb »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
I think your issue is the short term strategy you're looking for. Which is market timing. I follow and believe in the principles of this forum but not with blind adherence to the point of religion. I invest in things that are not index funds. Lots of us do. You can to. It's okay. One has to invest in what makes them comfortable. Be it an index fund, stocks, bonds, cars, real estate, gold, mutual funds, sector funds, etc. Perhaps you should find some good quality companies that you think will prosper after the current events are over and invest in them. My guess is some will be good, others not so good and you may find that investing in an index would have been best.
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TechGuy365
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by TechGuy365 »

I am comfortable with an aggressive portfolio and most of my 100/0 holdings are already in growth funds and single stocks for the past 5 years. I started moving the remaining small holdings (<5%) from VTSAX to VIGAX (Growth Index). Stronger companies with healthy balance sheets will thrive and come out of this crisis even stronger. Smaller cap companies will continue to struggle. Fair or not, it's the larger companies who will lead us out of this.
Dhchicago
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by Dhchicago »

Why do you not think these ideas are not priced in already? Take a look at the airline stocks. American trades at a few hundred $m more than the march cash on balance sheet, and carries 33$b in debt (which I assume is also trading at a big discount). So the equity is already just a call option with some very very high probability of bankruptcy priced in. It is going to be zero with very high likelihood or many hundred percent return with very low likelihood. Is it obvious to you that this is a great buy? Or clearly a sell? It is not to me and I look at this stuff for a living.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by Triple digit golfer »

A "short term strategy" in investing is like asking for a way to induce a double play in the fourth quarter of a hockey game.
h82goslw
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by h82goslw »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:12 pm This is not rocket science.
If this is the case, why did you start this thread?
achillesheel
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by achillesheel »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 08, 2020 8:46 am A "short term strategy" in investing is like asking for a way to induce a double play in the fourth quarter of a hockey game.
+1! I might only add... "a hockey match."
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ruralavalon
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by ruralavalon »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:06 pm Thanks Robot Monster. All these people posting on here are just clueless. Good to see Jim Cramer agrees. Individual stocks is the way to go, if you index then nasdaq is the way to go. I will be doing individual stocks. Im sure stock pickers right now will beat the pants off of indexers until we have a normal economy/vaccine.
If posters here are all "just clueless", then why did you post your question here?

Jim Cramer recommendations have not beat the S&P 500 index. Ifa.com (10/21/2019), "Jim Cramer vs. S&P 500: chasing mad money". Journal of Retirement (9/2018), "Jim Cramer’s Mad Money Charitable Trust Performance . . . " .

In the past the NASDAQ index has not done as well as the S&P 500 index. Portfolio Visualizer, 2000-2020.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
Triple digit golfer
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Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

Post by Triple digit golfer »

achillesheel wrote: Fri May 08, 2020 8:55 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 08, 2020 8:46 am A "short term strategy" in investing is like asking for a way to induce a double play in the fourth quarter of a hockey game.
+1! I might only add... "a hockey match."
:sharebeer
CardioMD
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Re: Coronavirus economy

Post by CardioMD »

striker79 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:32 pm Im simply asking for a short term strategy from now until we have a vaccine, for capitalizing on the businesses that will continue to do well in the coronavirus economy. By blindly investing into s&p500 funds, you are picking clear losers - Airlines are not making money, and neither are cruiselines - they will continue to hemorrhage money and you are putting money into them. Bogleheads seems to be more of a religion with blind adherence to principles at all times, instead of thoughtful consideration on how to take advantage of certain situations in history. I know im not the only one who is 100% boglehead principles, I will wait for the others to chime in.
Blind adherence to well thought-out principles is a strength of mine. Also, FYI, don’t bet on a vaccine.
“The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.” -Jack Bogle
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