Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

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BackToSchoolDad
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by BackToSchoolDad »

I had some IRA space from 2019 leftover when the market dropped so I went ahead and topped that off.

I'm DCAing $500 monthly into this year's IRA as per my plan to max it, but the big drop in expenses from quarantine I'm torn on what to do with the excess. At first I was bulking up my EF, but we've got 6 months worth now and I'm not too worried about job security because I work in State government.

I'm thinking about opening a taxable account and making a mid tier emergency fund for mid term savings like home upgrades or a new used car in several years.

My thinking is to put 25% in total world ETF VT and 75% in short munis. Once I get around $6,000 (3 months expenses) in the short muni fund I'll add solely to VT. My overall AA is 100% equities so I don't have another avenue for mid term savings with my current strategy.
cherijoh
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by cherijoh »

Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
Your post made me smile! :D
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SmileyFace
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by SmileyFace »

cherijoh wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:18 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
Your post made me smile! :D
+1

When I read this post my immediate thought was "And I wish I was born Rich instead of Handsome" (Some would say I was screwed out of both :) ).
mcblum
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by mcblum »

am retired so have no "earned income".
However, I have been dribbling money into my taxable account; sometimes only 100 dollars a month but it all adds up.
Marty :D
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

No matter what the market does, I am a buyer.
Stay invested my friends.
RomeoMustDie
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by RomeoMustDie »

No, I've invested all available income. If you wavered from your IPS in this time you were probably in the wrong portfolio to begin with.
JD2775
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by JD2775 »

OCWhale wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:59 am I usually contribute monthly but since mid-March have been buying VTSAX in $2.5K increments every week or so regardless of whether things seem to be trending up or down, have about $15K added so far. I also added a big chunk ($25K) in mid-February, which was painful in hindsight - chalk that up to the mistakes of youth :oops:
how was that a "mistake"? you didn't know in mid-February what was going to happen in March. No one did. I think its great you were able to invest that kind of money like you did :)
GoldenFinch
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by GoldenFinch »

The only way I can really protect myself from making behavioral errors (protect myself from myself) is to automate my investments. I learned that a long time ago and it has worked well for us. I buy on the way down and buy on the way up. I also rebalance when I hit certain numbers.
Rosencrantz1
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

We bought more VTI/VOO on the way down and on the way back up again.

We also shifted some of our 'oversized' EF into our taxable account and bought some more VOO and a few individual stocks :shock:

I caught one of those stocks very near the bottom (so far) - so, yeah, at the moment, I can say I wish I'd bought more of that stock (hindsight being 20/20 and all).

All in all, we've added/reallocated to equities over the past couple months. We're fortunate in that our pensions > expenses - so we can add to equities while retired.
illumination
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by illumination »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:41 am Can you imagine being one of the bogleheads who sold at the bottom during the forum euphoria and is still sitting on the sidelines right now?

During the big crash in March this forum was unrecognizable with new members coming out of nowhere telling everyone to sell. There are a few of them left still saying the same thing but most have disappeared.

If I had listened to those bears and trolls that appeared and still sitting on the sidelines, I would be depressed.
I didn't sell, in fact I bought during the downturn, but it was amazing how many came out of the woodwork with that same message. Since this is a place where people tend to be way more rational than the average investor, I'll admit it did snap my head back seeing the flood of panic of posters on this site, but it was almost exclusively newish members with really low post counts. It really was an odd phenomenon, I almost do think it was the equivalent of astroturfing.
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justsomeguy2018
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

cherijoh wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:18 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
Your post made me smile! :D
+2

I chuckled at that one too
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justsomeguy2018
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

I bought all the way down but not so much on the way back up, expecting it to crash again (and I suppose it still may).

Also annoying was I have a "friend" who I was trying to convince to buy into the market while it waa down, before he missed his chance, and he kept calling me a fool for buying saying it was going to drop 70%. That got into my head a little bit as the market continued to drop after each buy I made, started wondering if I was buying too high.

I did manage to buy 2 shares of ITOT for $49.40 at the bottom though. Lol.

Edit: looking back I put around $2800 total in taxable and about $9k in backdoor roth accounts
Last edited by justsomeguy2018 on Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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whodidntante
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by whodidntante »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:27 pm No matter what the market does, I am a buyer.
Yep.

I don't keep huge piles of cash around or huge piles of bonds to sell for market timing. If I would like to pull future investments forward, my lever is leverage.
absolute zero
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by absolute zero »

Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
Made me chuckle. If there is a Mrs. Sandtrap, hopefully she doesn't know your BH username. :happy
fatFIRE
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by fatFIRE »

Yeah... I rebalanced too early, when market was down 20-30%... then it went down to 30-40%. Sigh... and now it's back up. I was hoping for it to crash to at least 50%.

I guess I have to hope that we have some bad economic/health news in the near-future, I'm guessing/hoping the eventual 2nd peak will do it.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by TheTimeLord »

Regret means you are driving while looking in the rearview mirror. Keep your eyes on the road. My biggest regret is not taking more photos of people while on vacation.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Sandtrap
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Sandtrap »

absolute zero wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:14 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
Made me chuckle. If there is a Mrs. Sandtrap, hopefully she doesn't know your BH username. :happy
After over 35 years, DW has heard . . "almost" . . all of those old stories.
She does occasionally read my posts if I forward them to her for some reason. And, proudly, she is also a "boglehead".. .

thanks!!!!
j :D
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
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justsomeguy2018
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

StormShadow wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:14 am
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:28 pm So here we stand....29% off the lows, with a tinge of regret at not backing the truck up...
I did it.

I got greedy and jumped in a few weeks too early. The SP500 started dipping in late February 2020. I initially felt the US market was overreacting to COVID19 since the number of known infected cases in the USA was relatively small (https://www.worldometers.info/ cites 60 known cases by Feb 28) and thought I was buying on an irrational fear. We'd seen various strains of coronavirus causing outbreaks recently (SARS, MERS), and they had not made a significant dent to the US stock market. I assumed that COVID19 would be more of the same (especially since the mortality rate was estimated to be significantly lower that SARS/MERS) and that Asia's measures to contain prior epidemics would be similarly effective at preventing significant spread to the west. Obviously, I was dead wrong. Cases began growing exponentially in the USA shortly afterwards, and the stock market promptly plummeted.

What I've found is that timing the market is... not easy.
That sucks...I remember some other posters buying a lot early on as well....one thing I didnt understand with that approach....those were prices people could have bought at the entire 6 months of last year so I didnt understand why people thought a 10% drop was suddenly a bargain....unless they had money they didnt have 6 months ago or had regret at not buying 6 months ago.
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AerialWombat
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by AerialWombat »

I’ve continued making my normal 401k contributions, but I will admit that I haven’t been buying my normal 1-fund investment (Wellesley).

Instead, I’ve been buying something called Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI). This is probably an unwise, speculative play, but seeing that ETF tank and then come back up has been kind of exciting.

I will exit that risky position and move the money to Wellesley, where it belongs, at some point, but I will let it ride a bit longer.
GoldenFinch
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by GoldenFinch »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:22 am I’ve continued making my normal 401k contributions, but I will admit that I haven’t been buying my normal 1-fund investment (Wellesley).

Instead, I’ve been buying something called Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI). This is probably an unwise, speculative play, but seeing that ETF tank and then come back up has been kind of exciting.

I will exit that risky position and move the money to Wellesley, where it belongs, at some point, but I will let it ride a bit longer.
You do realize that most people here don’t consider VTI risky. :happy

I understand that Wellesley is a good hands off fund with bonds included. Be careful about getting “excited” about the stock market and also reacting and doing something because you risk making behavioral mistakes.
rascott
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by rascott »

I bought some Simon Property Group (SPG) a while back... mentioned it on here in one of the threads discussing individual stocks

Wish I would have bought a lot more. Up about 40% just this week.
Big Dog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Big Dog »

I jumped on the downturn to make my Roth conversions for the year. (At least there was one benefit.)
Independent George
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Independent George »

Hey, it might still drop again! Actually, it's almost certain to - I just have no idea when, or by how much...

Anyway, I rebalanced on the way down, and am almost at the point where I rebalance on the way up. My 401k is set to max out for the year, and rebalances automatically within a Vanguard TDF. I've got no regrets.

Considering the dread I remember feeling in 2008, I'm somewhat surprised by how little I've been worried about my portfolio in 2020. Part of it is being in a better situation to start with, and part is just being older and more jaded.
Lee_WSP
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Lee_WSP »

I wish I had more money. But any extra I had was invested, so no, I can't say that I wish I had invested more.
IlliniDave
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by IlliniDave »

Yes, wish I'd have sold more stock funds than I did at the end of 2019, and bought back more than I did in March. I take that as a sign I navigated things okay so far, just small actions to keep my AA in the ballpark.
Don't do something. Just stand there!
IlliniDave
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by IlliniDave »

Independent George wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:52 am
Considering the dread I remember feeling in 2008, I'm somewhat surprised by how little I've been worried about my portfolio in 2020. Part of it is being in a better situation to start with, and part is just being older and more jaded.
I wrote almost the exact same thing to a friend about 10 days ago. Part of it for me is having arguably crossed the FI threshold, I believe. But also this is my 4th significant downturn counting 2000-2002 as two. Fifth if you count my token involvement in Oct '87. So my callouses are pretty thick now too.
Don't do something. Just stand there!
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batpot
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by batpot »

I did invest more: i re-balanced.
:beer
dboeger1
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by dboeger1 »

Think of it this way: the only time horizon that matters is from now to when you need the money. Everyone who says, "Oh, I regret having (not) bought/sold before/during/after this/that/some other event/window. But what people fail to realize is the market acts on so many different wavelengths all jumbled together, so whatever trend or window you think you missed may just be starting, or may have been totally noise to begin with and the market could do the exact opposite for the next 5 years. Nobody knows. The only reason it feels bad now seeing the market up x% from recent lows is that the charts you're looking at make you feel like you could have made that money if you had just bought in at the lows. But remember, daily stock prices are not the same as cold hard cash. You buy shares. Unlike cash, you can't pay your taxes or buy a Big Gulp with them until you sell for cash. Nobody gains or loses in the market until they sell. So just like those charts are showing you paper gains, the people holding the bag right now could be in for some serious paper losses soon. Same shares, just different trading price on any given day. And 20 years from now, there's a good chance it'll all look like a tiny blip in history, and the gains on that chart will make you wish you had bought today. It's all noise. If you don't need the money for another 10+ years and you're fairly confident that stocks will beat inflation over that time, you should buy. It's as simple as that. To paraphrase Warren Buffet, if you look at just about any crash in US stock market history, both the highs and the lows were all great buying opportunities in hindsight.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Went from 3/97 before the crisis to 70/30 in it. Now, I sit at 50/50. I've avoided loss, profited, and stand to earn more in the future, while also being positioned to take advantage of a near-term market drop. So, I'm very satisfied with the current situation.

Only with the clarity of hindsight would I have acted differently, but faced with the same or very similar circumstances in the future, I am very satisfied with my decisions to this point and would hope to weather future crises similarly.
Rosencrantz1
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:01 pm
absolute zero wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:14 pm
Sandtrap wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
Made me chuckle. If there is a Mrs. Sandtrap, hopefully she doesn't know your BH username. :happy
After over 35 years, DW has heard . . "almost" . . all of those old stories.
She does occasionally read my posts if I forward them to her for some reason. And, proudly, she is also a "boglehead".. .

thanks!!!!
j :D
Good for you!

DW and I have "our" accounts (managed by me) and we each have our own separate taxable accounts too. She cracks me up because whenever she makes a purchase in 'her' account, she always wants my approval. I'm going to turn her into a "boglehead" yet though. :beer
Rosencrantz1
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

rascott wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:54 am I bought some Simon Property Group (SPG) a while back... mentioned it on here in one of the threads discussing individual stocks

Wish I would have bought a lot more. Up about 40% just this week.
I remember you mentioning SPG. I looked at it too. In the end, though, I stuck with MGM and MCD and AAPL.
atdharris
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by atdharris »

I TLH'd VOO into VTI on 3.23, but I did not put any new money to work. I'm honestly surprised by the price action. I would not be shocked if we did drop back down again, but I don't think we will see 3.23 lows again. I'm still 93% invested, so I have not missed a lot.
2kids&pets
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by 2kids&pets »

I invested 20k from a safe but low interest bearing account to my Vanguard 500.
Rolled 50k to a Roth (planning that anyway).
Invested 5k into each of my college-age kids Vanguard retirement accounts.
Maxed out last years HSA (all mine) and contributed half for this years maximum $8100.

I’m 59. Married. Big saver. No debt. No mortgages since mid 1990. I was a much, much more aggressive buyer in 2008! Worked for me then. More conservative now.

“Watch the Pennies and the Dollars will take care of themselves.” Ben Franklin
rascott
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by rascott »

2kids&pets wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:13 pm I invested 20k from a safe but low interest bearing account to my Vanguard 500.
Rolled 50k to a Roth (planning that anyway).
Invested 5k into each of my college-age kids Vanguard retirement accounts.
Maxed out last years HSA (all mine) and contributed half for this years maximum $8100.

I’m 59. Married. Big saver. No debt. No mortgages since mid 1990. I was a much, much more aggressive buyer in 2008! Worked for me then. More conservative now.

“Watch the Pennies and the Dollars will take care of themselves.” Ben Franklin

Not like we've had much time to do anything here.... at least yet....2008/9 was a long slog downward compared to this flash crash and rebound.
milktoast
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by milktoast »

I invested all the money I had (chopped down my emergency fund, stopped prepaying mortgage principal, invested 100% of my bonus).

So absolutely I wish that I had invested more. Because that would mean that I got paid more.

Do I wish that I'd used a margin account to buy more? No.
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee »

When I have more cash than I need to meet living expenses I invest it. When I don't have enough I sell something I own and use the proceeds to meet my spending needs.

I have a strong and well-thought out plan with respect to investing and spending, I created it myself, and I stick to my plan.

I'm not sure I understand OP's question.

PJW
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Tom_from_MI
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Tom_from_MI »

We have been looking for extra cash sitting around and found a couple thousand dollars. One-third of it we have been adding to our taxable account (VTSAX). The other two-thirds is being used to pad our Emergency Fund (Ally MM). We have not changed our bi-weekly investments either. So yes, we are taking advantage of the down market.
If you come to a fork in the road, take it. - Yogi Berra
Independent George
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Independent George »

IlliniDave wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:08 pm I wrote almost the exact same thing to a friend about 10 days ago. Part of it for me is having arguably crossed the FI threshold, I believe. But also this is my 4th significant downturn counting 2000-2002 as two. Fifth if you count my token involvement in Oct '87. So my callouses are pretty thick now too.
Granted, in 2008, I went from $100k net worth to -$15k; in 2020, I went from $500k net worth to around $375k. My losses were pretty similar in nominal terms, but there's a much different feeling when you cross into negative integers. That mortgage payment sucked.
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AerialWombat
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by AerialWombat »

GoldenFinch wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:15 am You do realize that most people here don’t consider VTI risky. :happy

I understand that Wellesley is a good hands off fund with bonds included. Be careful about getting “excited” about the stock market and also reacting and doing something because you risk making behavioral mistakes.
Yes, it was a true but tongue-in-cheek remark. :)

In the same six weeks, I’ve added over five times as much money to my high yield savings account and CDs. Still happily 30/70. :)
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by JonnyDVM »

I got a decent amount in. Way more than friends who were absolutely sure we were going to see prolonged deeper declines and thought me a fool for buying. Aggressively over rebalanced. Moved cash into equities. Filled up the 529s for the year. Got the retirement funds and HSA filled. Scooped up some decent buys with fun money. I’m still sitting on probably too much cash though.

I did ok, but I’d trade it all for a little more.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
manatee2005
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by manatee2005 »

Well yes, everybody wishes they sold mid Feb and bought mid March. Saying they don’t is a lie.
averagedude
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by averagedude »

Yea, in hindsight right now I wish I would had invested more. I also wished i would had invested in monster energy drink or bitcoin in the last 20 years. I also had a time when I thought I should invest everything in Circuit City, but I sure am glad I didn't. Hindsight is 20/20.
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VictoriaF
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by VictoriaF »

Je ne regrette rien.

In 2008, I was anticipating Plan-B of retiring later than I had planned.
In 2014, I retired according to my plan. The financial part of my plan was to have large amounts of cash that would enable me to satisfy all my (reasonable) needs until I start collecting Social Security.
In early 2020, I sold some stocks to fund a 3% CD. I wish I have sold more.

The COVID-19 story is not over:
- the antibodies may not provide protection
- the vaccines may be a long way off
- the virus may mutate
- in Fall we may have another wave, just as it was in 1918
- other?

I would rather NOT be invested than invest and lose a large part of my assets.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by TheTimeLord »

VictoriaF wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:54 pm Je ne regrette rien.

In 2008, I was anticipating Plan-B of retiring later than I had planned.
In 2014, I retired according to my plan. The financial part of my plan was to have large amounts of cash that would enable me to satisfy all my (reasonable) needs until I start collecting Social Security.
In early 2020, I sold some stocks to fund a 3% CD. I wish I have sold more.

The COVID-19 story is not over:
- the antibodies may not provide protection
- the vaccines may be a long way off
- the virus may mutate
- in Fall we may have another wave, just as it was in 1918
- other?

I would rather NOT be invested than invest and lose a large part of my assets.

Victoria
If only more people were this lucid about their money.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
RobLIC
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Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:02 am

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by RobLIC »

I did not follow my IPS. :oops:

I was 70/30 stocks/bonds. When things started to fall, I moved 5% of the bonds to stocks (total US and INT) each day that the carnage was “ugly,” which I defined as drops of 3% or so.

By the time I was completely out of bonds — six or seven ugly days — and 100% in stock indexes, the markets still had about another 15% to drop.

Today I checked, and my IRA is now positive YTD. I am 50 years old and 100% in stocks. That was never the plan. Except ... I’m happy with the result. I also realize it could turn for the worse any minute.

Best I can tell, I may have underestimated my risk tolerance. But I had been losing sleep even at 70/30, so that can’t be it. Not sure what to do now. Just happy I’ve lowered my cost basis in VTSAX, VTIAX and VTWAX to something a little more 2017-like by reallocating the bond money. ALL the bond money.

Other lessons I learned (again): The whole thing feels like an enormous scam — especially the financial media. Financial outlets I respect, places where I have friends working, seem to alter headlines on a daily basis, giving voice to one smart person explaining why the markets will fall 57% in the next two weeks, then profiling someone else from a bank explaining why the S&P will end the year at 3500. Nobody knows nothin’, indeed.

I get that investment houses have PR arms that shop their experts to a financial press with column inches to fill. I am glad I didn’t throw myself out a window when my IRA was down $35,000, but basically this has left me more cynical than ever :twisted: . And in better financial shape.
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baconavocado
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Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:03 pm

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by baconavocado »

RobLIC wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:11 pm I did not follow my IPS. :oops:

I was 70/30 stocks/bonds. When things started to fall, I moved 5% of the bonds to stocks (total US and INT) each day that the carnage was “ugly,” which I defined as drops of 3% or so.

By the time I was completely out of bonds — six or seven ugly days — and 100% in stock indexes, the markets still had about another 15% to drop.

Today I checked, and my IRA is now positive YTD. I am 50 years old and 100% in stocks. That was never the plan. Except ... I’m happy with the result. I also realize it could turn for the worse any minute.

Best I can tell, I may have underestimated my risk tolerance. But I had been losing sleep even at 70/30, so that can’t be it. Not sure what to do now. Just happy I’ve lowered my cost basis in VTSAX, VTIAX and VTWAX to something a little more 2017-like by reallocating the bond money. ALL the bond money.

Other lessons I learned (again): The whole thing feels like an enormous scam — especially the financial media. Financial outlets I respect, places where I have friends working, seem to alter headlines on a daily basis, giving voice to one smart person explaining why the markets will fall 57% in the next two weeks, then profiling someone else from a bank explaining why the S&P will end the year at 3500. Nobody knows nothin’, indeed.

I get that investment houses have PR arms that shop their experts to a financial press with column inches to fill. I am glad I didn’t throw myself out a window when my IRA was down $35,000, but basically this has left me more cynical than ever :twisted: . And in better financial shape.
Losing sleep at 70/30 and now you're at 100/0? Uh-oh.
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baconavocado
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Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:03 pm

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by baconavocado »

I'm continuing to follow Boglehead principles, in general, and I don't think I would have done anything differently. I've exchanged 30% of our bond funds for stock funds since the correction began. In retrospect, my timing wasn't perfect, but so far I'm significantly better off than if I had done nothing. I changed our AA from 60/40 to 70/30 during these trades. I'm not following an IPS.

I don't think we've seen the end of this correction. If anyone wishes they had done something differently, I suspect there will be more opportunities to take advantage of market volatility in the next 12 months.
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birdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

fatFIRE wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:33 pm Yeah... I rebalanced too early, when market was down 20-30%... then it went down to 30-40%. Sigh... and now it's back up. I was hoping for it to crash to at least 50%.

I guess I have to hope that we have some bad economic/health news in the near-future, I'm guessing/hoping the eventual 2nd peak will do it.
:oops:
RobLIC
Posts: 106
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:02 am

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by RobLIC »

“Uh oh” is right. I should be furious with myself, but instead I just feel proud. :shock:

One other thing: It’s more like 80/20, because all my FI is currently in retail CDs earning just north of 2%. I did appreciate that total bond behaved more or less exactly how Taylor and the other sage investors here have always predicted it will in an equity downturn. But why are they still going up?
nigel_ht
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Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by nigel_ht »

Just moved from 70/30 to 30/70 in my 401Ks.

Happy to do so now even if the market keeps going up. I’m probably now 30/40/30 (cash) overall with a lot of dry power. If it goes up, awesome. If it stays even, eh that still works. If it goes down, awesome.

I bought some stocks in late March. CCL, RCL, BA, XOM, DAL. DAL is the laggard at only 25% up. I have SPUX that’s down about 30% but had very little money in it so only down $4K. Overall way up on the speculative play money and I’ll ride them for the long term.

So up a bit for the year, moved more money defensive that I wish I had done in Feb and have a lot of dry powder I’m DCAing into the market every month. I’m due for another tranche but might just pay off the house instead and see how the market is next month.

Market is behaving like a bull trap but even if it’s a full bore v shaped recovery I have enough remaining in the market to be happy.

Folks sitting at 100/0 may not be so happy if this is a bull trap tho’. I’d take my winnings off the table and go back to 70/30 or 80/20.
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