Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

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justsomeguy2018
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Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

The market is still about 15% off the February highs, and nowhere near out of the woods yet, but starting to wonder if the window of opportunity has passed, with economy potentially opening back up soon....

I did do some buying(and still am doing some buying), but a lot of it was backdoor Roth that I would have done anyway. Probably invested around $2000 in taxable.

It's tough to do in these types of downturns because psychologically you may want to stay conservative, with tons of jobs being lost and being unsure of your own job security.

Another thing I noticed psychologically is that if you are buying on the way down, each buy you make keeps losing money as the market keeps falling, so at some point you might say "Hmm...maybe I should slow down, be a little more cautious, who knows when this thing will bottom, every time I buy I could've bought even cheaper if I had just waited" Then you're equally cautious on rallies, since many are head fakes (there were a few head fakes in March for sure - maybe current rally is a head fake).

So here we stand....29% off the lows, with a tinge of regret at not backing the truck up...
H-Town
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by H-Town »

It's actually pretty easy if one can follow their IPS, without any emotion.

I really don't care where the market is heading. I keep buying on schedule, TLH when it makes sense, and buy some more in RBD. No guess work, no watching the news, no second guessing. None of that.
runner3081
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by runner3081 »

Who knows, it could go down another 50% next month or next year. No need to even think about it. Just keep investing per your IPS and save brain power for something more useful (and actionable).
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F150HD
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by F150HD »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:28 pm The market is still about 15% off the February highs, and nowhere near out of the woods yet, but starting to wonder if the window of opportunity has passed, with economy potentially opening back up soon....

I did do some buying(and still am doing some buying), but a lot of it was backdoor Roth that I would have done anyway. Probably invested around $2000 in taxable.

It's tough to do in these types of downturns because psychologically you may want to stay conservative, with tons of jobs being lost and being unsure of your own job security.

Another thing I noticed psychologically is that if you are buying on the way down, each buy you make keeps losing money as the market keeps falling, so at some point you might say "Hmm...maybe I should slow down, be a little more cautious, who knows when this thing will bottom, every time I buy I could've bought even cheaper if I had just waited" Then you're equally cautious on rallies, since many are head fakes (there were a few head fakes in March for sure - maybe current rally is a head fake).

So here we stand....29% off the lows, with a tinge of regret at not backing the truck up...
Join the dry powder crowd: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=267070

:D
anonsdca
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by anonsdca »

Have continued to invest the same. Just as I always do from 2x month paydays. I have gotten some nice buys in there and excited about the future.
Topic Author
justsomeguy2018
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

runner3081 wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:36 pm Who knows, it could go down another 50% next month or next year. No need to even think about it. Just keep investing per your IPS and save brain power for something more useful (and actionable).
Taxable account investing is the one thing I haven't quite gotten down just yet. Just recently set up a quarterly automated buying system to help me move things along, but I think at the moment I am sitting on too much cash. Expenses ended up being super low this month....
Paul78
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Paul78 »

Of the "powder" I had when this downturn started I invested about 50%.

50% still in g-fund (essentially just straight cash)

30% invested into c-fund when it was DOW 21,000, well that is what it was when I first made the purchase but the DOW just happened to go up 2k points that day so the close price (ie my purchase price*) was close to DOW 23,000

20% invested into the c-fund when it was DOW 19,000

So yeah would have been nice to go 100% into the c-fund when it was DOW 19,000 but oh well at least I caught some of the bottom (well hopefully that was the bottom).

*and yes I know the c-fund is not just the DOW but I am just using the DOW as an approximation.
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William Million
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by William Million »

We might see new lows, so you could get your chance. But can't say I'm hoping for that.

At 24k, Dow is equidistant between low of 19k and high of 29k. Can't figure out if this is a bull or bear market.
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Cubicle
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Cubicle »

.Yes.
"Oh look another bajillion point declin-Ooooh!!! A coupon for pizza!!!!" <--- This is what everyone's IPS should be. ✓✓✓
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rob
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by rob »

Stick with IPS... I would guess there is more um... excitement... to come before the world is back to pre nonsense.
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Clever_Username
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Clever_Username »

I don't know. A month ago I rebalanced to whatever extent I could to get my asset allocation back to where I want it to be. I'm not sure I wish my stock allocation had been higher, as this was my first real downturn and there's a reason I went with a conservative allocation. I'll reevaluate in a few months to decide if I want to change my target asset allocation then. I might end up just deciding to hold off making it slightly more conservative on my birthday at the end of June.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_ | | I survived my first downturn and all I got was this signature line.
FRT15
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by FRT15 »

I didn't change my allocation to buy ore during the decline. For me not adding downside is greater than the upside. How do you know that you won't get a better opportunity yet in the near future?
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Stef
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Stef »

Bought VTI for 119$. It went below 110$ and I thought: just wait you idiot, you'll get a better price soon. Then it was all over.

Now I decided to put my dry powder into my emergency fund (cash) and convinced myself that I shouldn't have invested that money anyway. So no regrets.
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Tim_in_GA
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Tim_in_GA »

I rebalanced a big chunk of bonds into stocks on 3/23. Kind of wish I would have been a bit more aggressive that day.
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avenger
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by avenger »

I rebalanced according to my IPs which resulted in me buying about $70k worth of stocks.
I bought more stocks according to my IPS, until I was overweighted in stocks and bought more fixed income.
Do you have an IPS?
cheers ... -Mark | "Our life is frittered away with detail. Simplify. Simplify." -Henry David Thoreau | [VTI, VXUS, VWITX, SV fund]
regularguy455
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by regularguy455 »

Nope. I stuck with my IPS. Feeling confident that I could weather this type of downturn and not panic sell. I guess I set the right AA.
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by RadAudit »

Nope. It would just of been something else to worry about. I went to LifeStrategy funds in January. I guess they are buying and selling daily on the way down and up.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.
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tadamsmar
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by tadamsmar »

Generating regret via 20-20 hindsight is not a good plan. You seem to limit it to regrets about not buying on dips. Why are you not regretting not selling on the highs also? Anyway, it's good you are not all in on this plan, not being all in leads to less regret.

I have a plan. It's a plan to fund my retirement, looks like it is going OK.
Jng2020
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Jng2020 »

I kept adding/dca into tsp [rebalanced to 90/10], and kept buying and adding to well run MF/ETF vgstx vppcx vti BRK.B and vde the past 4 weeks

Hopefully we have turned corners for the worst

Only time will tell if there is a hugh reversal waiting dependence of covid19 rebounds in cases vs rebounds in stocks/markets

Hopefully we will be looking back 5 10 years from now and wish buy more/maybe laughing our ways to the bank

The main worries now could massive world debts [USA eu Asian countries]/multiple large corporations restructurings [especially the retail energy rigs oil travel restaurants sectors]

We still have 15+yrs until retirement so hopefully we will be ok long term

Stay safe
aristotelian
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by aristotelian »

I am with you. I do not have a set rebalancing policy (and still do not). I had recently crossed 5 years expenses in my bond allocation and did not want to put those funds at risk in the midst of chaos and a possible Depression. Even though that put my allocation % out of whack I decided not to pull the trigger and re-evaluate if the market ends up -50%.

If I am being honest, I always regret not being able to time the market perfectly. I also regret not selling it all in February. And not being able to pull the trigger on this or that "10 bagger" stock. It is human nature. I allow myself to check the market and experience the emotions as long as I don't act on them. At the end of the day, best thing to do is have a plan and stay the course.
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birdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:46 pm Taxable account investing is the one thing I haven't quite gotten down just yet. Just recently set up a quarterly automated buying system to help me move things along, but I think at the moment I am sitting on too much cash. Expenses ended up being super low this month....
I understand the benefits of automated investing but I have never had a problem saving and like to invest every dollar that isn't spent each month. Plus, every month my paycheck is different. Even if your paycheck is the same every pay period, your monthly expenses usually vary. I made a monthly checklist to help me optimize this so that max dollars get invested every month. I'm sharing it in hopes that it might benefit you. This assumes your emergency fund is already funded. Here's a brief example for me: (We have no debt, no mortgage, and pay for almost everything with either our main visa (cash-back card) or a travel rewards visa that we're trying to hit minimum spend onto get the sign-up bonus points for.)
  • Direct deposit(s) arrive 15th-18th in checking account
  • Send $X to designated charity
  • Transfer X% of monthly income to high-yield savings account for quarterly estimated taxes
  • Pay all visas (pay statement balance, not full account balance, to maximize float but keep zero finance charges. Change due date on all visas to the 9th so that monthly statement balances are generated by the 15th)
  • Transfer all remaining dollars (keeping $X in checking acct) to investment firm
  • (Fill me and wife's tax-advantaged accounts first with monthly additions, then all remaining funds for the year go to taxable)
  • The day the funds hit the account check asset allocation. That day (no market timing) buy either stock fund or bond fund, whichever is below target allocation.
  • Repeat each month
I keep a print out with the listed items bulleted and check them off with a pencil each month after completed. Then erase check marks and start over for the next month. This is not complicated but before I had a written plan I had money in limbo at different accounts and also cash piling up at brokerage accounts waiting for the perfect day to buy (market-timing). This simple written plan (in addition to my IPS) keeps the maximum amount of dollars that are not spent that month flowing into my brokerage accounts and immediately invested. You'll obviously need to personalize your monthly plan to suit your specific needs. My plan has a few more specifics on it and I presented the basics for the sake of simplicity. (I keep a stock fund and a bond fund in IRAs and a stock fund and a muni bond fund in taxable. If it's later in the year and tax-advantaged accounts are maxed and new dollars are flowing into taxable account and I'm supposed to buy the bond fund but don't want to add more to muni fund (I keep it at a third of my bond holdings) I simply buy the stock fund in taxable then go to IRA and sell stock fund and buy bond fund. I use ETFs and this takes about two or three minutes to do.)

I also track my spending (easy to do since almost all purchases are made with credit cards) and I track the amount I save each month. Tracking helps me to really evaluate and look for ways to boost my savings rates, which I also track.

Hope this helps.
Last edited by birdog on Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
stoptothink
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by stoptothink »

Definitely regret lump-summing Roth IRAs January 1st and front-loading 401ks. More than half our tax-advantaged space was gone by the time the market dropped.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I buy the same amount on the first of each month. No regrets.
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David Jay
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by David Jay »

Wait, I’m still 50% cash and 50% inflation-protected assets...

Link: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309571
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Sandtrap
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Sandtrap »

If only. . . I'd have bought $500,000 of Total Stock on March 20, 2020 . . . . .

If only . . . I'd have sold 2 mil. of Total Stock on February 20, 2020 . . . .

If only . . . I'd have kissed Cathleen Miyoshiro at that 8th grade dance in the Winter of 1967 . . . :shock:

Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda', . . . if only. . .

Sometimes, but rarely, you get a chance to do a "reset" / "reboot".
j :happy
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birdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

David Jay wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:24 am Wait, I’m still 50% cash and 50% inflation-protected assets...

Link: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309571
Oh geez... Thanks for linking to that thread. I laughed several times while reading it. :shock:
lostdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by lostdog »

Can you imagine being one of the bogleheads who sold at the bottom during the forum euphoria and is still sitting on the sidelines right now?

During the big crash in March this forum was unrecognizable with new members coming out of nowhere telling everyone to sell. There are a few of them left still saying the same thing but most have disappeared.

If I had listened to those bears and trolls that appeared and still sitting on the sidelines, I would be depressed.
OCWhale
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by OCWhale »

avenger wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:39 am I rebalanced according to my IPs which resulted in me buying about $70k worth of stocks.
I bought more stocks according to my IPS, until I was overweighted in stocks and bought more fixed income.
Do you have an IPS?
I'm kind of new here - what is an IPS?
Call_Me_Op
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Call_Me_Op »

Cubicle wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:27 pm.Yes.
No. We did not know when the bleeding would stop. Don't confuse strategy with outcome.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
NotWhoYouThink
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by NotWhoYouThink »

Everything is invested so I can't invest more. Asset allocation is set, and I did make one adjustment to keep it within range, but other than that there wasn't much to do.

So no, no wishing I had done anything different.
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Sandtrap
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Sandtrap »

OCWhale wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:45 am
avenger wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:39 am I rebalanced according to my IPs which resulted in me buying about $70k worth of stocks.
I bought more stocks according to my IPS, until I was overweighted in stocks and bought more fixed income.
Do you have an IPS?
I'm kind of new here - what is an IPS?
Search the wiki for “IPS” Investment Policy Statement
Link below

j🌺
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OCWhale
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by OCWhale »

I usually contribute monthly but since mid-March have been buying VTSAX in $2.5K increments every week or so regardless of whether things seem to be trending up or down, have about $15K added so far. I also added a big chunk ($25K) in mid-February, which was painful in hindsight - chalk that up to the mistakes of youth :oops:

Wish I could have added more but then again I also didn't want to run out of dry powder too soon if this drags on, and dipping into the emergency fund is not going to happen either. Just going to stay the course, though probably going to scale the contributions to monthly again soon.
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AnalogKid22
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Wish I'd started investing 20 years ago - I could have retired years ago. But, I didn't and I can't change that. In 10-20 years will you regret not buying more now?
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birdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:41 am Can you imagine being one of the bogleheads who sold at the bottom during the forum euphoria and is still sitting on the sidelines right now?

During the big crash in March this forum was unrecognizable with new members coming out of nowhere telling everyone to sell. There are a few of them left still saying the same thing but most have disappeared.

If I had listened to those bears and trolls that appeared and still sitting on the sidelines, I would be depressed.
In another thread someone bragged how he had sold a portion of his equity fund and bought a 2X short SP 500 fund. He did this on 3/26. I'm not saying I know what the future holds, but I'd be pretty puckered-up right now if I'd done that.
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WoodSpinner
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by WoodSpinner »

OCWhale wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:45 am
avenger wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:39 am I rebalanced according to my IPs which resulted in me buying about $70k worth of stocks.
I bought more stocks according to my IPS, until I was overweighted in stocks and bought more fixed income.
Do you have an IPS?
I'm kind of new here - what is an IPS?
An Investment Policy Statement (IPS) is a planning tool you write to help guide your investment actions.

See https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement for some background.

You can use the Search Bar on the upper right side and search for some examples and discussion from the forum.

The goal is to think through your investment process, risk profile, and rebalancing approach during calmer times. This gives you a framework to guide your decisions during more turbulent times and helps be less emotional in your decision making.

WoodSpinner
lostdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by lostdog »

birdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:02 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:41 am Can you imagine being one of the bogleheads who sold at the bottom during the forum euphoria and is still sitting on the sidelines right now?

During the big crash in March this forum was unrecognizable with new members coming out of nowhere telling everyone to sell. There are a few of them left still saying the same thing but most have disappeared.

If I had listened to those bears and trolls that appeared and still sitting on the sidelines, I would be depressed.
In another thread someone bragged how he had sold a portion of his equity fund and bought a 2X short SP 500 fund. He did this on 3/26. I'm not saying I know what the future holds, but I'd be pretty puckered-up right now if I'd done that.
I don't know much about those funds but I assume that is even worse.
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birdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:06 am
birdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:02 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:41 am Can you imagine being one of the bogleheads who sold at the bottom during the forum euphoria and is still sitting on the sidelines right now?

During the big crash in March this forum was unrecognizable with new members coming out of nowhere telling everyone to sell. There are a few of them left still saying the same thing but most have disappeared.

If I had listened to those bears and trolls that appeared and still sitting on the sidelines, I would be depressed.
In another thread someone bragged how he had sold a portion of his equity fund and bought a 2X short SP 500 fund. He did this on 3/26. I'm not saying I know what the future holds, but I'd be pretty puckered-up right now if I'd done that.
I don't know much about those funds but I assume that is even worse.
Yes. It is a leveraged short ETF so for every 1% increase in the S&P 500, the ETF drops 2%.
Broken Man 1999
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

I market-timed re-balanced enough to stay within my desired AA bands.

But, I don't think we have seen the end of the market's volatility, despite the mostly upward movement of late.

So, it is entirely possible I will add more equities in the near future if re-balancing is appropriate.

Win-win: I get another crack at equities on sale, or I enjoy rising equity value for portfolio.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain
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KlingKlang
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by KlingKlang »

I've been following my IPS and exchanging stocks for bonds and cash inside my IRAs since early 2017 until February 2020. During the violent stock declines of 2018 and 2020 I stopped making exchanges and basically held on for dear life. I know that this has resulted in my missing some buying opportunities, but as a retiree I can't countenance throwing fixed assets into an irrational market.
Candor
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Candor »

I moved approx 7% from bonds to equities during the downturn and I actually keyed in a trade of another 2.7% or so on the absolute bottom day but the market came back a little at the end of the trading day so I never "hit the button" on that trade. I was regretting it for a while but in the end it is only 2% of my pf and I was being disciplined so I'm fine with it now. Besides I may yet get another chance and if not I'm good with that too.
Last edited by Candor on Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Toons
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Toons »

Hindsight
20/20
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
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birdog
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

KlingKlang wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:21 am I've been following my IPS and exchanging stocks for bonds and cash inside my IRAs since early 2017 until February 2020. During the violent stock declines of 2018 and 2020 I stopped making exchanges and basically held on for dear life. I know that this has resulted in my missing some buying opportunities, but as a retiree I can't countenance throwing fixed assets into an irrational market.
Sounds like, as a retiree, you are a one-way rebalancer. Your approach is covered here. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing
Modified Approaches

For those fearful of rebalancing into a sustained bear market, one of the following modifications to standard rebalancing methods could be employed:
  • Keep a floor level of bonds, i.e. once the total amount of bonds has dropped to a fixed amount, stop rebalancing into stocks.
  • Only rebalance out of stocks, never into stocks.
whereskyle
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by whereskyle »

I threw as much $ as I could at the market these past two months. I'm happy to buy more virtually any time, but the stress of turning up the rate and size of the contributions and throwing them at the market just to watch them disappear was a bit too rich for my taste. It was like fighting a tornado. I don't know if I want to go through it again next time. Perhaps better to dive deeper into my finances and ensure that I'm contributing the maximum amount I can at all times. Just not worth the stress to dig deeper in a time of volatility. As long as I'm contributing every week, I don't need to play that game.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
Massdriver
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by Massdriver »

Out of everything I could have invested safety, I put in about 70% of it. I wish I had put it all in right at the bottom, but instead I'm satisfied that I DCA'd most of the way down after the bear market started.

I'm not convinced we won't have another leg down, but don't care either way at this point.
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StormShadow
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Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by StormShadow »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:28 pm So here we stand....29% off the lows, with a tinge of regret at not backing the truck up...
I did it.

I got greedy and jumped in a few weeks too early. The SP500 started dipping in late February 2020. I initially felt the US market was overreacting to COVID19 since the number of known infected cases in the USA was relatively small (https://www.worldometers.info/ cites 60 known cases by Feb 28) and thought I was buying on an irrational fear. We'd seen various strains of coronavirus causing outbreaks recently (SARS, MERS), and they had not made a significant dent to the US stock market. I assumed that COVID19 would be more of the same (especially since the mortality rate was estimated to be significantly lower that SARS/MERS) and that Asia's measures to contain prior epidemics would be similarly effective at preventing significant spread to the west. Obviously, I was dead wrong. Cases began growing exponentially in the USA shortly afterwards, and the stock market promptly plummeted.

What I've found is that timing the market is... not easy.
HawkeyePierce
Posts: 1584
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:29 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by HawkeyePierce »

I was already fully invested so I didn't have any way to invest more during the downtown.

I did get lucky in that my quarterly rebalance was 4/1, close to the low, which meant I sold some long-term Treasuries and bought equities.
alibaba123
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:51 pm

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by alibaba123 »

StormShadow wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:14 am
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:28 pm So here we stand....29% off the lows, with a tinge of regret at not backing the truck up...
I did it.

I got greedy and jumped in a few weeks too early. The SP500 started dipping in late February 2020. I initially felt the US market was overreacting to COVID19 since the number of known infected cases in the USA was relatively small (https://www.worldometers.info/ cites 60 known cases by Feb 28) and thought I was buying on an irrational fear. We'd seen various strains of coronavirus causing outbreaks recently (SARS, MERS), and they had not made a significant dent to the US stock market. I assumed that COVID19 would be more of the same (especially since the mortality rate was estimated to be significantly lower that SARS/MERS) and that Asia's measures to contain prior epidemics would be similarly effective at preventing significant spread to the west. Obviously, I was dead wrong. Cases began growing exponentially in the USA shortly afterwards, and the stock market promptly plummeted.

What I've found is that timing the market is... not easy.
Same here. I jumped in at 10% off its highs thinking it would just be a minor correction after seeing how previous outbreaks as you mentioned did not affect the economy much. It then dropped another 25%. Can't help thinking what if i had just waited awhile longer.

I helped my parents lump sump in at literally the top after news of the virus came out here (i live in Asia) and i saw that it didn't move the stock market. Boy am i filled with regret with regards to that.
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birdog
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Joined: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:35 pm

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by birdog »

In addition to normal monthly additions to my investments from my paychecks, I also received a bonus, had a private REIT (from years ago, never again) liquidate, and got my income tax refund. All of this extra money came through in late Feb and March. I threw it all in VTI. I never caught the exact bottom but made purchases as I got the cash at minus 10, 19, 25, 28, 27, 22, and 20 percent. My buy at minus 28% from the Feb market high was my best purchase. I invested way more in March, due to extra cash inflows to my checking account, than I will put in the rest of the year. So I feel like I got lucky to be able to put in as much as I did. That money would have gone in regardless of market conditions, but without the market drop it just would have gone into my bond fund instead of my stock fund in order to maintain my target asset allocation. I considered trimming back my emergency fund to buy more VTI in late March but thought better of it.
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firebirdparts
Posts: 1898
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by firebirdparts »

Ask me in 2 years, I'll have an answer then. Right now, the market is rip-roaring drunk. The Fed is buying all debt except peasant debt.

Right now, we have a window of opportunity to either buy or sell. If I had a time machine I would be doing one or the other.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
A fool and your money are soon partners
steadtler
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Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:28 pm

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Post by steadtler »

I suspect most regret are from those that jumped out missing the drive up.

But they weren't really market timing it was just that, well they had been meaning to change their AA for a while now but forgot about it until recently. Besides, if you think about it, it's really more like locking in gains from back when anyways. yeah. Yeah, that's what it is.
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