Did we just go in and out of a recession?

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tvubpwcisla
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Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by tvubpwcisla » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:03 pm

I have a couple questions.

1. Did we go into a recession from COVID-19?
2. Are we now out of the recession?

Is so, wow, that was fast.

:shock:
Stay invested my friends.

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:06 pm

You should look up the definition of the word “recession”

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JoMoney
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by JoMoney » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:13 pm

No, while there seems to be a general consensus that we entered into a recession, I don't believe the NBER has officially declared when it started yet. Given the unemployment and other broad economic issues I certainly don't think we can be sure we've seen a clear bottom yet... these things tend to look clearer in hind-sight, which is when they like to pin-point what period the recession was from and to.

FWIW, a "recession" doesn't necessarily mean anything about the stock market, other than the stock market is considered one of many leading indicators about the broad economy.
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index2max
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by index2max » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:19 pm

The can was simply kicked down the road after the Federal Reserve printed trillions more dollars out of thin air, passed the money around to a select few Wall Street investment firms and banks to trickle down to everyone else, eventually.

It'll be even worse next time, whenever it does happen.

magicrat
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by magicrat » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:37 pm

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So no.

dukeblue219
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by dukeblue219 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:37 pm

I'm not sure there's any strong argument that we have emerged from a recession. No matter how strong you think the economy may do in the second half of the year, nobody is buying or selling or producing or consuming much right now. The economy has clearly contracted substantially (on purpose, essentially) and I don't see any reason that will change until stay-at-home orders are rescinded AND people feel safe resuming their previous lives.

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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by dukeblue219 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:38 pm

magicrat wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:37 pm
A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So no.
It doesn't have to be two quarters. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

BeneIRA
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by BeneIRA » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:45 pm

Still in one. The stock market is seemingly operating completely separate from what is happening to the average person at this point.

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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by Sandtrap » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:03 pm

Recession “like” qualities in various areas of the economy will persist and deepen the longer the “recovery”.
The impact is different depending on who, where, and what they are doing. Prosperity and stability is not a given for all.

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aristotelian
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by aristotelian » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:09 pm

Assuming the economy contracted in Q1 and continues to do so in Q2, we would be officially out of recession if the economy expands in Q3. We won't know for sure until Q4 at the earliest.

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nisiprius
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by nisiprius » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:15 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:13 pm
... I don't believe the NBER has officially declared when it started yet...
The NBER doesn't declare anything about a recession until after they have determined that it over.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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nisiprius
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by nisiprius » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:26 pm

Wikipedia says
The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
I can't speak to how they combine those "visible" elements, but I think it would strange to say we are out of the recession when there is 20% unemployment.

It is what it is but on April 14th the IMF said
Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.
The IMF is pretty mainstream, this isn't nutcase stuff and they don't predict this sort of thing all the time.

No, we're not out of the recession.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

plog
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by plog » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:32 pm

'Recession' is a near meaningless word. All it really means right now 'is a period of lower economic prosperity'; where both 'period' and 'economic prosperity' are themselves ill defined.

So, as the saying goes--Ask 5 economists if we are in a recession, you'll get 10 answers--all equally correct.

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Crushtheturtle
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by Crushtheturtle » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:47 pm

who cares buy stocks
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Stormbringer
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by Stormbringer » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:55 pm

We're definitely not out of a recession. Also, we might want to dust off the term "depression" just in case.
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by manatee2005 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:24 pm

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:03 pm
I have a couple questions.

1. Did we go into a recession from COVID-19?
2. Are we now out of the recession?

Is so, wow, that was fast.

:shock:
By recession do you mean bear market instead?

manatee2005
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by manatee2005 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:25 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:47 pm
who cares buy stocks
Next week’s earnings will be interesting.

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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by RadAudit » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:35 am

manatee2005 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:25 pm
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:47 pm
who cares buy stocks
Next week’s earnings will be interesting.
I'm looking forward to July where we get the 2nd quarter's earning reports.
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sd323232
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by sd323232 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:38 am

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:03 pm
I have a couple questions.

1. Did we go into a recession from COVID-19?
2. Are we now out of the recession?

Is so, wow, that was fast.

:shock:
With millions of people unemployed , i dont think we did. Or are you only gauging recession on stock market rise?

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nisiprius
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by nisiprius » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:22 am

Stormbringer wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:55 pm
We're definitely not out of a recession. Also, we might want to dust off the term "depression" just in case.
I like "panic."

It even goes with "pandemic." The Pandemic Panic of 2020.

("Depression" was originally a euphemism for "panic," and then "recession" became a euphemism for "depression." Introduced during the Eisenhower years IIRC).
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by 1130Super » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:57 am

A recession is when there is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we will know on April 29th if 1st QRT was negative. It’s possible that economic activity didn’t drop enough in 2nd half of March to offset the rest of the QRT. 2nd QRT will be a massive drop in GDP, but if we rebound in the 3ed QRT we might make it out of this without even having a Recession.

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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by SchruteB&B » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:58 am

manatee2005 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:24 pm
tvubpwcisla wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:03 pm
I have a couple questions.

1. Did we go into a recession from COVID-19?
2. Are we now out of the recession?

Is so, wow, that was fast.

:shock:
By recession do you mean bear market instead?
That’s my guess for what the OP meant as well.

Swivelguy
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by Swivelguy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 am

BeneIRA wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Still in one. The stock market is seemingly operating completely separate from what is happening to the average person at this point.
Who says it's supposed to? If the stock market reflects anything about reality, the thing it reflects would be how extremely wealthy individuals and large businesses are doing.

BeneIRA
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by BeneIRA » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:36 am

Swivelguy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 am
BeneIRA wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Still in one. The stock market is seemingly operating completely separate from what is happening to the average person at this point.
Who says it's supposed to? If the stock market reflects anything about reality, the thing it reflects would be how extremely wealthy individuals and large businesses are doing.
I am okay with it working how it does. The stock market is a forward looking instrument that looks at businesses, not people on the ground. The issue is people looking at the stock market and thinking that whatever the S&P 500 is that day is how everything must be doing that minute. It's not.

Glockenspiel
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by Glockenspiel » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 am

The economy does not equal the stock market. 10% of the people own more than 80% of all stocks.

H-Town
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Re: Did we just go in and out of a recession?

Post by H-Town » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:05 am

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:03 pm
I have a couple questions.

1. Did we go into a recession from COVID-19?
2. Are we now out of the recession?

Is so, wow, that was fast.

:shock:
It's just the beginning of a recession. No, it's a long way to go for economy. At least a couple of years.

I have no answers to the movement of stock market.

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