[Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

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justsomeguy2018
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[Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:56 pm

This guys says this is a losing strategy? Thoughts? Will be interesting to come back 5 years from now and see if his advice panned out. There's a certain logic to what he is saying, part of me feels like.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/jim-cra ... nners.html
CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday laid out two buckets of stocks that he recommends investors consider adding to their portfolios.

In making his case for the stock picks, the “Mad Money” host admonished index investing in this volatile market environment.

“Stop circling the wagons around index funds here,” he said.

Investing in index funds, a passive investment strategy, is a low-cost financial instrument that gives market players exposure to a diverse range of companies. Cramer often warns that indexing over stock picking leaves investors exposed to the good performing stocks and the bad.

“If you want to invest right now, you have to own some stocks from the second bucket — the Covid winners — and whenever the market gets slammed, you can buy members of the first bucket, the big businesses with deep pockets,” he said.

The first basket of equities that Cramer suggests picking among includes firms that are “big enough and deep pocketed enough” to weather the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis. The companies are investible through an economic downturn for their healthy balance sheets during an economic downturn. ...

In the second bucket are companies that have been able to adapt, maintain business and benefit from the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to slow the spread of the deadly disease, Cramer said. ...

As for a third bucket, Cramer noted industries that have been hit hardest by the global health crisis. Those businesses are at risk of needing a bailout, shutting down altogether or nearing bankruptcy. Those industries include banking, oil, most retailers, airlines and the travel and leisure cohort, Cramer said. ...
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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:04 pm

Jim Cramer........

You do know that a study was done to analyze his tips. Had you taken them all, you'd lose out to a simple S & P.

Oh, here you go

https://www.ifa.com/articles/cramer_chasing_mad_money/
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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by David Jay » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:06 pm

financial porn
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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by MathIsMyWayr » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:08 pm

He is desperate to keep his job.

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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Massdriver » Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:08 pm

He's worried about his active manager buddies losing their profession. He also sees the inflows from retail investors into passive funds and it irritates him. Turn him off, buy index funds, and win.

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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Cubicle » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:10 pm

This is it. I'm going over the top. Right here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLANLzerfa0

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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Alex Frakt » Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:34 am

This is the "good company is a good stock" fallacy. It ignores the fact that stock valuations differ between companies. In other words, investors already know everything he is saying and have adjusted the price they are willing to pay for each company's stock accordingly.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by btq96r » Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:15 am

If anyone listens to Jim Cramer's advice, they deserve to lose their money.
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by GFD45 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:28 am

He was pretty close to calling the bottom, if in fact that was the bottom. A month ago when everyone was in crisis mode he mentioned on his program that the S&P500 would drop to the 2018 lows. Outside of that, everything he said since has been white noise to me.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by nisiprius » Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:46 am

How does Jim Cramer, or anybody else, know who "the Covid winners" are going to be? If I may a few more fallacies to Alex's:

Fallacy #1. The fact that everything is more chaotic, crazy, unpredictable and unprecedented makes it easier than usual to pick stocks. The SEC is allowing a 45-day delay on filing 10-K and 10-Q forms and the financial press expects many companies to delay earnings reports? Wearing a blindfold makes it easier to hit the bullseye.

Fallacy #2. The effects of something that was wildly unpredictable must be highly predictable. The period of time between April 2019 and April 2020 was surprising, but the period from April 2020 to 2021 won't be.

Fallacy #3. If we can give a name to something that will happen in the future, we can predict it. We can say with virtually 100% certainty that there will be a Tropical Storm Ana in 2021. Tropical Storm Ana (2021) is real. Therefore we should short "the Ana losers," the places it will hit.

There will be "COVID winners" and we will know who they were in a couple of years. The fact that we can use the phrase today does not mean we can identify them. Chloroquine stocks, anybody?

Fallacy #4. Jim Cramer could be just as successful if he came on TV every day and always said "buy VTI."
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Stinky » Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:54 am

Did Cramer give out a list of "Covid winners"?

I'll buy every stock on his list. Because Cramer is always right.

[sarcasm intended]
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by nisiprius » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:04 am

Stinky wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:54 am
Did Cramer give out a list of "Covid winners"?
I think he did:
If you want to invest right now, you have to own some stocks from the second bucket — the Covid winners...." [The second bucket includes]
Retail plays: Amazon, Walmart, Costco and Target
Consumer goods plays: Kimberly-Clark and Procter & Gamble
Pantry plays: Hormel Foods, J M Smucker, General Mills, Mondelez International and McCormick
Stay-at-home plays: Zoom Video Communications, RingCentral, ZScaler, Okta, Crowdstrike, Domino’s Pizza and Netflix
Why he thinks an index fund investor doesn't "own some stocks" from this bucket, I don't know.

There's nothing testable there going forward, because he is imply both a timing strategy and a stock-picking strategy layered on top of it.
“If you want to invest right now, you have to own some stocks from the second bucket — the Covid winners — and whenever the market gets slammed, you can buy members of the first bucket, the big businesses with deep pockets,” he said.
But these are not actual recommendations, these are buckets to pick from, and furthermore you are supposed to shift back and forth depending on whether the market has gotten "slammed."

So if you tried to follow that advice and you underperformed the market, he could always say you picked the wrong "COVID winner," or you shifted from the second bucket to the first at the wrong time.

P.S. That list is all US stocks. Are there not going to be any COVID winners outside the United States? I don't watch his show, are his recommendations 100% US-only?
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by nisiprius » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:26 am

Jim Cramer says I "have to own some stocks from the second bucket?" I already do.

7.12% of my US stocks are in that second bucket already.

Amazon.com Inc. AMZN 3.24%
Walmart Inc. WMT 0.64%
Costco Wholesale Corp. COST 0.49%
Target Corp. TGT 0.19%
Kimberly-Clark Corp. KMB 0.17%
Procter & Gamble Co. PG 1.08%
Hormel Foods Corp. HRL 0.05%
JM Smucker Co. SJM 0.05%
Mondelez International Inc. MDLZ 0.28%
McCormick & Co. Inc./MD MKC 0.07%
Zoom Video Communications Inc. ZM 0.03%
Domino's Pizza Inc. DPZ 0.05%
RingCentral Inc. RNG 0.06%
Zscaler Inc. ZS 0.02%
Okta Inc. OKTA 0.05%
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. CRWD <0.01%
Netflix Inc. NFLX 0.65%
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by eldinerocheapo » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:35 am

We listen to Cramer's short monologue nightly to gain his impression of the day's financial events. We then change the channel before he lobs the Barbara Walters softball questions to each guest hawking their company's stock afterward.
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Robot Monster » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:36 am


...businesses are at risk of needing a bailout, shutting down altogether or nearing bankruptcy. Those industries include banking, oil, most retailers, airlines and the travel and leisure cohort, Cramer said. ...
This makes me think of Mohamed El-Erian's recommendation to go up in quality, and sell the weaker ones...

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/13/i ... erian.html
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by TheOscarGuy » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:40 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:56 pm
This guys says this is a losing strategy? Thoughts? Will be interesting to come back 5 years from now and see if his advice panned out. There's a certain logic to what he is saying, part of me feels like.
I am going to go out on a limb here and say that most responses to you will be this is all noise, or that he is incorrect. You won't find too many people agreeing to stop buying index funds based on Cramer's "tips". Me included :D

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by bondsr4me » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:41 am

Cramer is right about one thing; the indexes will have BOTH winners and losers.
Index investors have to be satisfied with this fact.
But, when picking individual stocks, there are going to be BOTH winners and losers.
Nobody picks all winners....nobody.
I prefer index "investing" along with some individual stocks.
I'm OK with that; it suits my investing "personality".
I like some of Cramer's picks below; but not all of them.


"If you want to invest right now, you have to own some stocks from the second bucket — the Covid winners...." [The second bucket includes]
Retail plays: Amazon, Walmart, Costco and Target
Consumer goods plays: Kimberly-Clark and Procter & Gamble
Pantry plays: Hormel Foods, J M Smucker, General Mills, Mondelez International and McCormick
Stay-at-home plays: Zoom Video Communications, RingCentral, ZScaler, Okta, Crowdstrike, Domino’s Pizza and Netflix"

"Investing" is a highly personal endeavor.
You have to do what is right for you; not me or anyone on BH's or anyone else.

Have a great weekend and stay safe and healthy.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by dziuniek » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:45 am

Remember Bear Sterns?

Cramer on March 11: buy Bear Sterns - it's fine!

5 days later...

bank folded into JP Morgan Chase.

This guy is full of great ideas!

ALSO:

-"“Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there?”

No! No! No!

Bear Stearns is fine. Do not take your money out. If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble. I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly."

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by sixtyforty » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:03 am

I think this board knows where Cramer stands. It's unfortunate for those across the US that do watch his show and act on his advice.

A few excerpts from Wiki on Jim Cramer;

On October 6, 2008, on Today, when the S&P 500 Index was valued at 1,056, Cramer suggested to investors, "Whatever money you need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market."[42][43]

Cramer recommended investing in Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman Brothers before the stocks fell in value significantly.[44] On August 8, 2008, before the climax of the financial crisis of 2007-2008, Cramer recommended investing in bank stocks.[45]

An August 20, 2007 article in The Wall Street Journal stated that "his picks haven't beaten the market. Over the past two years, viewers holding Cramer's stocks would be up 12% while the Dow rose 22% and the S&P 500 16%."[46]

A February 9, 2009 article in The Wall Street Journal noted that betting against Cramer's Buy recommendations using short term options could yield 25% in a month.[47]
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by bottlecap » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:10 am

Cramer's arguments are age-old. They sound so good to the novice: "Why not invest in the "good" stocks in an index and leave out the "bad?"

Well duh.

This is essentially what every fund tries to do and the lion's share, with armies of researchers, fail to beat the index. But they take their fees trying to find the good and cull the bad.

Cramer's are losing arguments, as shown by time and by the increase of the popularity of index funds. People are getting smarter.

Listening to Jim Cramer leaves you exposed to underperformance. Proceed at your own risk.

JT

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Leesbro63 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:13 am

Won't the index self-adjust as the rapidly changing economy changes? Businesses that develop goods and services that become in demand due to changing conditions and become big enough to prosper move into the index and those who suffer "creative destruction" get removed.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by 260chrisb » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:34 am

I have a difficult time watching him. He has to have something to talk about 5 days a week.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by JoMoney » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:49 am

Cramer's advice is so bad, that his results have implications of being evidence against market "efficiency".
http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~maol ... cramer.pdf
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by truenorth418 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:50 am

If Jim Cramer - or any of the other TV tabloid financial porn idiots - was so good at picking individual stocks, he would be a multi-billionaire like Warren Buffett.

Is he?

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Svensk Anga » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:56 am

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:46 am
. The SEC is allowing a 45-day delay on filing 10-K and 10-Q forms and the financial press expects many companies to delay earnings reports?
It seems to me that delayed reporting increases the risk that the guy on the other side of your trade has some not yet public information. No thanks.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by skepticalobserver » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:59 am

3/11/08: "Bear Stearns is fine. Do not take your money out"

oops

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by spectec » Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:09 am

I like Cramer. His advice causes trading activity, which helps keep the prices of the stocks in my index fund honest.
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by djpeteski » Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:27 am

There was a time, that my active trading strategy was to do the opposite of what Cramer touted. Whenever said Cramer said sell ISRG, I bought and vise versa. I did quite well trading that stock. However, I would have done much better buying regularly and holding an index fund.

So, in this case, I am back to doing the opposite of what Cramer says.

For most of us, it is far better for us to concentrate on our chosen careers, so we can earn more. This enables us to invest more. Stock picking is akin to mowing your lawn when you could, instead, be billing a client for $100/hour.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Coltrane75 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:28 am

Jim Cramer must be having a ball.
I couldn't find any info, does anyone know how much CNBC pays him?

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Mr. Rumples » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:33 am

I'm no genius when it comes to investing, but I remember that I did better than he did in 2008/09.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by dkturner » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:13 am

No need to get all worked up over Cramer’s advice. You could have had the best of both worlds by owning the Vanguard Growth Index Fund (-5.0% YTD) as opposed to the Total Stock Market Index Fund (-14.3% YTD).

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by 02nz » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:15 am

Stop listening to Jim Cramer.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by peetsperk » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:50 am

My favorite Jim Cramer quote - Index funds are ruining our industry! It tells you everything you need to understand about Jim Cramer and CNBC.

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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:01 pm

MathIsMyWayr wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:08 pm
He is desperate to keep his job.
Bingo.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by illumination » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:06 pm

I read one of Cramers books about 15 years ago, he likes to tout his record as a hedge fund manager where he out performed the index funds (supposedly, I haven't really checked to verify, but he was a manager in an era where you could throw darts and get absurdly high returns).

He said though basically got out of the game because what he was doing then would now be considered illegal and a form of insider trading.

I saw an article (I think maybe Barrons) where they did a pretty in depth analysis of all of his picks on his TV show and showed it under performed the S&P500. They asked him for a rebuttal and he claimed it was not true, but that would seem to be a pretty easy thing for him to refute with a detailed rebuttal.

Even if you want to believe Cramer could eek out a little more than an index, the tax ramifications of just month to month (BUY!! SELL!!) churning would be devastating from a tax standpoint.

I think Cramer does "know" more about markets than most, I don't think all of his advice is bad, but I think wrapping "real" money like your retirement around the guy is a terrible idea. He also sells a newsletter,and who buys newsletters when they decide index funds are the way to go?

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Re: "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by SD2SR » Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:56 pm

Massdriver wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:08 pm
He's worried about his active manager buddies losing their profession. He also sees the inflows from retail investors into passive funds and it irritates him. Turn him off, buy index funds, and win.
This, predominantly.

Look, no one is debating that this guy (generally) knows what he's talking about, at least from a SME standpoint. He's also, for all intents and purposes, a showman. And just like any other high-profile investor, retail or otherwise, he's had his highs (frequent COVID-19 reality checks, and blasting big businesses taking PPP, as early as this morning https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/cramer- ... firms.html) and his obvious, dubious lows (Bear Stearns, etc.).

But this whole "why have the winners and losers, when you can just pick the winners?" is myopic, unrealistic, and flies in this face of Reversion to the Mean--notwithstanding his own portfolio's inability to beat the S&P.

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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by Mr.BB » Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:08 pm

The biggest problem when you are listening someone like Cramer or other financial experts is that it is a one-way conversation. When he is making these predications and picks there is no one on the other side going 'look at your past results, how do you explain this?"
Remember when he was on with Jon Stewart? Stewart laid him out and Cramer had no excuses.
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Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

Post by lws » Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:11 pm

The man is a decent entertainer.

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