[Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

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Stef
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[Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by Stef »

[Title was "Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free and even got 100k USD for ordering - anyone else?" --admin LadyGeek]

Now I have to find out where to store them for the next 12 months. Just joking.

I'm literally shocked! Anyone watching this? This must be historical?
Last edited by Stef on Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:24 pm, edited 4 times in total.
livesoft
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by livesoft »

Looks like you paid too much.
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Stef
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by Stef »

livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
Yeah just saw that they are now selling it for 3$/barrel, this is outrageous!
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CAsage
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by CAsage »

Just don't forget to sell before they deliver! I had a friend that bought a future on a ton (or more) of wheat, forgot, and then got the call when they wanted to deliver it....
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

CAsage wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:36 pm Just don't forget to sell before they deliver! I had a friend that bought a future on a ton (or more) of wheat, forgot, and then got the call when they wanted to deliver it....
Haha, and what happened after?

I am thinking of buying 1000 barrels of oil for $0.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by KSActuary »

Wait until you get your transportation bill.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by Stef »

Will they actually give you money for buying oil? Lol.
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Will do good
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by Will do good »

I wonder where are the "Peak Oil" folks?
I know of one, luckily he sold out his position about a month ago, lost a bunch of money but not down 90% or more.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by dukeblue219 »

Stef wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:31 pm
livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
Yeah just saw that they are now selling it for 3$/barrel, this is outrageous!
Make that $1.02/bbl
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by papito23 »

Will do good wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:48 pm I wonder where are the "Peak Oil" folks?
I know of one, luckily he sold out his position about a month ago, lost a bunch of money but not down 90% or more.
I fell for the Peak Oil explanation in college (~2006). I am also an environmentalist, so one often believes what one wants to hear if it involves the fall of their enemy.

Well, I was wrong. As people tried to tell me... "The stone age didn't end for lack of stones."

A little counter-intuitive since the gas station here says $1.14/gal, but perhaps we are at a key inflection point of peak demand (not supply). Worldwide peak internal combustion cars was probably achieved in 2017. EVs are taking off (currently stalling in U.S., but China+Europe together are far more consequential).

I reserve the right to be wrong.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by David Jay »

CME has announced that they will allow the contract price to go negative...
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

dukeblue219 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:48 pm
Stef wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:31 pm
livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
Yeah just saw that they are now selling it for 3$/barrel, this is outrageous!
Make that $1.02/bbl
$0.54.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

$0.12
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

$0.01
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by Stef »

DonIce wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:55 pm
dukeblue219 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:48 pm
Stef wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:31 pm
livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
Yeah just saw that they are now selling it for 3$/barrel, this is outrageous!
Make that $1.02/bbl
$0.54.
Where do you track this? Link?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/ -> is this the wrong price?
gch
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by gch »

Permian Gas prices have trading negative for whole delivery months. Commodities definitely can go negative
Last edited by gch on Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DonIce
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

Stef wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:57 pm
DonIce wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:55 pm
dukeblue219 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:48 pm
Stef wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:31 pm
livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
Yeah just saw that they are now selling it for 3$/barrel, this is outrageous!
Make that $1.02/bbl
$0.54.
Where do you track this? Link?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/ -> is this the wrong price?
It's delayed 15 minutes, all free online futures quotes are as far as I know. You have to have a futures trading account with a broker to see the up to date price.
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Will do good
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by Will do good »

At these prices, wouldn't airline, trucking, shipping industries be buying futures to lock in cheap price?
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

Will do good wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:02 pm At these prices, wouldn't airline, trucking, shipping industries be buying futures to lock in cheap price?
Not unless they want to pay the storage fees until they need it (currently $22/barrel for the next 1 month period). Oil futures contacts for delivery tomorrow are trading at ~$0, but oil contracts for delivery for 1 month from now are trading at $22, and two months from now at $28.
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Will do good
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by Will do good »

DonIce wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:05 pm
Will do good wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:02 pm At these prices, wouldn't airline, trucking, shipping industries be buying futures to lock in cheap price?
Not unless they want to pay the storage fees until they need it (currently $22/barrel for the next 1 month period). Oil futures contacts for delivery tomorrow are trading at ~$0, but oil contracts for delivery for 1 month from now are trading at $22, and two months from now at $28.
Didn't know that. Thank you for the info.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by 02nz »

Will do good wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:02 pm At these prices, wouldn't airline, trucking, shipping industries be buying futures to lock in cheap price?
The airlines do hedge oil prices, I think Delta even bought an oil refinery. But their revenue has fallen off a cliff and they're bleeding cash. (ETA: Just saw this headline on CNN Money: "Richard Branson offers his island as collateral as Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia face collapse".)
Last edited by 02nz on Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by Stef »

Updated the thread title :mrgreen:
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by McGilicutty »

The price just went negative.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by Stef »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:09 pm The price just went negative.
Where can I see this? Damn.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by DonIce »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:09 pm The price just went negative.
Haha I can't see it! The e-trade chart crashed. I bet it was not set up for negative numbers or had a divide by zero error or something.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by McGilicutty »

It's on CNBC right now. Currently trading at -$2.00/barrel. You need to update the title again. :D
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Will do good
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free - anyone else?

Post by Will do good »

Wonder if I can store these oil in my swimming pool? maybe use the community pool as well. :twisted:
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by Stef »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:13 pm It's on CNBC right now. Currently trading at -$2.00/barrel. You need to update the title again. :D
Done, lol. What a time to be alive! Has this ever happened?
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free and even got 20k USD for ordering - anyone else?

Post by BV3273 »

This is WILD.
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by LadyGeek »

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general discussion).

The futures prices are here: Crude Oil Futures Quotes - CME Group

Note that the prices under discussion are for May futures. In the MAY 2020 column, click on the chart icon to see the price ranges.

Note that futures for June 2020 and later are more than $20 / barrel.

Crude oil is traded on NYMEX (NY Mercantile Exchange).
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free and even got 20k USD for ordering - anyone else?

Post by WildBill »

Stef wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:26 pm Now I have to find out where to store them for the next 12 months. Just joking.

I'm literally shocked! Anyone watching this? This must be historical?
Howdy

Where are you planning on storing ? And have you checked on the cost of that? And do you know what happens on the delivery date and you have not arranged for storage?

If you do not know what you are doing in the commodities market your education is swift and tuition is steep.

TANSTAAFL

Happy contango day

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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free - anyone else?

Post by jpelder »

Will do good wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:15 pm Wonder if I can store these oil in my swimming pool? maybe use the community pool as well. :twisted:
Can you just imagine the Nextdoor posts?
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by rascott »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:13 pm It's on CNBC right now. Currently trading at -$2.00/barrel. You need to update the title again. :D
-$10......
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by Corsair »

:shock: Watching history unfold... how is the market staying calm?
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by rascott »

Negative $40. Lol
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by LadyGeek »

FYI - I fixed the thread title. Let's keep it that way.

I have zero intention to change my investments. This thread is a reminder to diversify your portfolio.

From MarketWatch: U.S. oil benchmark crashes below $3 a barrel, on track for lowest close and biggest one-day fall on record
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by GTBuzz »

Shipping kills the deal.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by GoldenFinch »

So can someone smarter than me (that means any one of you) please explain what this oil price collapse will mean for markets and the general public. Thanks! :happy


Edit:

Never mind. I found this thread: viewtopic.php?p=5198889#p5198889
Last edited by GoldenFinch on Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by baconavocado »

The excess oil supply will be used up by the loaded oil tankers that are sailing around in circles in every ocean. Or by the empty passenger jets flying back and forth to major airports.

This is how the world ends.

(/sarcasm)
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by rascott »

GTBuzz wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:31 pm Shipping kills the deal.
Even at negative $40?
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 1 USD - anyone else?

Post by Luckywon »

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:09 pm The price just went negative.
So if you just want the barrel without the oil it's more?
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by RayKeynes »

Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
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Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

Post by AlphaLess »

livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
I am buyer of 100MM barrels at -1,000 USD per barrel.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by DonIce »

RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:36 pm Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
1 million contracts would be 1 billion barrels of oil, 40 billion USD. You would probably get charged a fine of more than $40B for deliberately dumping a billion barrels of oil into the ocean.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by AlphaLess »

RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:36 pm Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
Math for storage does not add up. If you sink a tanker into the ocean, you are SHORT a tanker.
You need extra tanker.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by RayKeynes »

AlphaLess wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:38 pm
RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:36 pm Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
Math for storage does not add up. If you sink a tanker into the ocean, you are SHORT a tanker.
You need extra tanker.
I can buy the tanker with the 40$ billion - no problemo.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by DonIce »

AlphaLess wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:38 pm
RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:36 pm Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
Math for storage does not add up. If you sink a tanker into the ocean, you are SHORT a tanker.
You need extra tanker.
If there were no laws, you would literally be getting paid $40/barrel to pour oil into the ocean right now.
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by AlphaLess »

rascott wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:33 pm
GTBuzz wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:31 pm Shipping kills the deal.
Even at negative $40?
At any price. There is no storage.

The only viable place to store is the SPR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... ed_States)
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Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by AlphaLess »

RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:40 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:38 pm
RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:36 pm Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
Math for storage does not add up. If you sink a tanker into the ocean, you are SHORT a tanker.
You need extra tanker.
I can buy the tanker with the 40$ billion - no problemo.
You can't, at any price.

There are NO empty tankers, and full tankers don't help you.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.
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Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

Post by Teague »

Like the old saying, an elephant for a dime is only a good deal if you need an elephant. (And have a place to keep it.)
Semper Augustus
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