Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
chicagoan23
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:34 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by chicagoan23 »

Two thoughts for those who think deflation is here and possibly to stay:

1. How much of it is driven by trade policy, and do you see that staying the same in light of Coronavirus concerns? If things are cheaper because the cost of making them is cheaper, will that still be the case if, as a result of the virus, trade policy changes so that more goods need to be Made in America?

2. In an era of persistently low inflation or even deflation, what should we consider as a safe withdrawal rate? If costs are not rising or are even falling, it would seem that a 4% or even 5% withdrawal rate would be OK. Might not get huge returns on your portfolio but you wouldn’t need them.
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" | | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
ignition
Posts: 334
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:28 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ignition »

striker79 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:03 am We need more stimulus!...So big companies can use that money to buyback shares, instead of actually circulating it into the economy. Then we can all watch our retirement accounts grow and pat ourselves on the back for staying the course and adhering to boglehead principles.
Why wouldn't that money circulate into the economy? Who do you think these companies buy back shares from?
User avatar
Harry Livermore
Posts: 498
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:32 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Harry Livermore »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:01 am
The other thing that is not declining is real estate taxes.
Always up, never down.
Insurance too.
Cheers
User avatar
jeffyscott
Posts: 9147
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:12 am
Location: Wisconsin

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by jeffyscott »

OnTrack wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:03 am From CNN Before the Bell April 20, 2020:
" US oil prices plunged, falling below $0 Monday to $-37.63 a barrel. That's the lowest level since NYMEX opened oil futures trading in 1983." (That is negative)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/investin ... index.html
Yep, deflation in something no one wants to buy, weird how that works.
The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions. ― John C. Bogle
User avatar
Harry Livermore
Posts: 498
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:32 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Harry Livermore »

snowman wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:48 pm
Well, I would argue that returning 20% of car insurance premium for the months of April and May back to policyholder is not a sign of deflation. In fact, my proposed 6-month premium just went up 10%. So the refund just temporarily reduces the rate of inflation. No deflation on the horizon.
HO insurance premium renewal last month went up 25%. Again. I shopped around, nothing cheaper available.
Property taxes did not decrease where I live in 2009. They just remained stagnant for 4 years, then resumed their way upwards. No cap around here on potential future increases. In fact, at least around here, the rents in 2009 went up as former homeowners needed a place to live. If we have a repeat of 2008-2009, we will have housing inflation, not deflation.
Healthcare premiums and co-payments - is there anyone out there experiencing deflation? Anyone?
College bills - same question - where is the deflation? Or at least a hint of it?
Food cost is also going up, albeit at a much lower pace than above mentioned categories.
I understand how inflation/deflation works, and a lot depends on where one lives and which categories he consumes most. I get that. All I am saying is that I don't see even a hint of deflation, let alone seeing it "everywhere".
Snowman is right. My insurance is flat, or up 10%-15% this year (pre-COVID) The 15% we'll get back on 2.5 months' auto insurance is welcome of course, but a drop in the bucket.

In my town, the budget is set by the board of finance. They have a Grand List of things to tax, to which they assign a mil rate based on a percentage of the value of those things. Every few years they do a re-val of the Grand List (actually they outsource this now so we spend MORE money figuring out how much money we "need" to spend) Here's the thing. If real estate values go down and the Grand List shrinks, they simply revise the mil rate upwards. The only "check" on the upwards spiral of costs is people like me showing up at the budget meeting and saying "you know, maybe we can wait one more year before we replace the carpet at the high school" and then you get dirty looks from your neighbors.

Healthcare premiums have gone nowhere but up. My wife's contribution to her excellent teachers' plan has gone up substantially (as has her district's contribution) despite "shopping it around" each and every year (and isn't that fun to "get to know" a new insurance company every 12 months... the first 2 months add so much confusion and "gotchas" it really keeps things exciting) Despite the cost of the "insurance" going up, co-pays also keep creeping up.

I started contributing to 529s (or Coverdells back in the day) within a week after each child's birth. My prediction in the late 1990s was that, by the time my youngest was in college, full pay would be $80K per year. My friends looked at me like I was an alien. Guess what?

Food has been slow to go up, but I sure do notice local- or micro- inflation now that we are all eating at home. And item-specific inflation is a thing (I assume based on what we can and can't shunt to overseas production) Land O Lakes butter at my Stop & Shop was $3.49 last year. This year, pre-COVID, it went to $5.99.

I have also noticed an insane increase in the cost of labor at both our Honda dealership (no surprise) and BOTH local mechanics shops. Almost double in the last 5 years. So a car is cheap to buy but getting more expensive to maintain. Disposable cars? I guess that's what leasing is...

The point is, yes, some items have not inflated much since the 1970s, and may, in fact, be cheaper now. Cars, TVs, some building materials, non-couture clothing. That is great. But we purchase those things infrequently, and the sum of those things is far less than the sum of other categories we are obligated to regularly spend on over a lifetime. I can choose to defer a big-ticket item like a TV or car. I can wear old jeans. I can wait to replace the windows in my house. But I have either saved enough, or not, for college when it's time for the kids to go. And I can't defer insurance. Nor taxes. Nor food.
I think there has been a divergence in costs that inflate or deflate. Things that are transparent in nature, or easy to make or supply (2x4s or streaming content) have gone down. Things that involve lawyers, liability, or are opaque or difficult to make or supply (college, healthcare, insurance, "investments" for non-BHs) have gone up. Things that have a captive consumer (government, local school districts and property taxes) have gone up.
The CPI and other "official" government measures of "inflation" discount the latter and emphasize the former.
So I'm not sure we can ever paint with a broad brush about this stuff.
Cheers
User avatar
Top99%
Posts: 407
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:30 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Top99% »

Deflation might be in a lot of places right now but I think inflation will return to a lot of places in the future. For example, it is costing grocery stores a lot of money to shorten their hours and allocate more workers to sanitize stores. At some point they will need to pass that cost on to consumers. If one needs to get a Corona virus test to get on an airplane that cost will also get passed on. Basically I think a lot of new friction is going to get introduced into the economy at least until there is a Covid-19 vaccine and quiet likely after that. That new friction will increase prices at least in some sectors.
Adapt or perish
Valuethinker
Posts: 41152
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Valuethinker »

chicagoan23 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:34 am Two thoughts for those who think deflation is here and possibly to stay:

1. How much of it is driven by trade policy, and do you see that staying the same in light of Coronavirus concerns? If things are cheaper because the cost of making them is cheaper, will that still be the case if, as a result of the virus, trade policy changes so that more goods need to be Made in America?
Trade shocks tend to be one off relative price shocks. If prices are stable due to other macroeconomic conditions, and the US chooses to have more expensive manufactured goods, then in turn some other part of the economy (healthcare?) will experience some level of deflation in prices, or fall in volumes, or both.

It might lower the long run growth rate of US GDP - the US would not be pursuing comparative advantage to its full extent. That's usually why autarkic/ isolationist trade policies fail (the US is such a big economy that exports and imports are a smaller proportion of GDP than for most developed countries, so the effect might be more muted**).
2. In an era of persistently low inflation or even deflation, what should we consider as a safe withdrawal rate? If costs are not rising or are even falling, it would seem that a 4% or even 5% withdrawal rate would be OK. Might not get huge returns on your portfolio but you wouldn’t need them.
Maybe. But what if you have negative returns on your portfolio? If you are 100% in US Treasury bonds, paying 1% say, and inflation is -2% then clearly you can hold the real value of your portfolio with a 3% withdrawal rate (crudely). Figure in some kind of mortality credit (say over 35 years) and you get to your 4%. But there will be the risk that things change, further - e.g. that inflation rebounds. So you might also hold stocks, and enjoy the pain that stock markets have over prolongued periods of deflation (Japan since 1989, USA in 1930s etc). Remember in the 19th century (when prices after 1815 and in 1900 were very similar, albeit with huge swings on the way) safe government bonds outperformed equities, as best we can tell.


** I would have argued, probably still do, that you cannot consider "the US market" without considering Canada and Mexico, which are economically totally integrated with it (particularly Canada). However that risks going into politics, so leave it that there is a very high degree of integration (except in Canadian dairy*** ;-)).

*** for those who don't track this one, the dairy exemptions that Canada negotiated in the 1980s are the textbook case of intentions being subverted by economics and how protectionism gives rise to economic profits that are captured by interest groups. Canadians pay something like 4x the price for slices of process cheese that are paid across the border, and a dwindling number of Canadian farmers sit upon huge values for their dairy quotas. It's a constant irritant in US-Canadian relations.
User avatar
jeffyscott
Posts: 9147
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:12 am
Location: Wisconsin

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by jeffyscott »

Harry Livermore wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:44 amIf real estate values go down and the Grand List shrinks, they simply revise the mil rate upwards.
That is the way property taxes work, in general, and something that many do not understand. If total property value goes up or down, it doesn't directly change the total amount of revenue that the taxing authority collects. The taxing authority sets the total levy, "we will collect $X million from property owners" and then divides that by whatever the total value of property is. They don't set a mil rate and then multiply in order to determine spending.

For the individual bill, what matters more is the change in your property value vs. the average for the community, along with the total levy set by the taxing authorities. Of course, there are some areas with special rules that limit increases for existing homeowners or the allowed tax rate increases, etc.

Our property tax bill has only increased by a net of about 6% in 10 years. Increase in value has been about average for the community, maybe 10-15% over those 10 years, according to Zillow and the tax assessor.
The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions. ― John C. Bogle
dziuniek
Posts: 869
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm
Location: Corrupticut

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by dziuniek »

The dollar has been strengthening like crazy in the last few months - would that add to deflation? Imported goods should be cheaper. I guess that also depends on the amount of actual imports that we will have in the future.
Valuethinker
Posts: 41152
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Valuethinker »

dziuniek wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:15 am The dollar has been strengthening like crazy in the last few months - would that add to deflation? Imported goods should be cheaper. I guess that also depends on the amount of actual imports that we will have in the future.
Yes it would. One example of that is the price of oil. There is oversupply of oil, priced in USD. But the USD has risen, and the result is an even lower price for oil.

The US will have lots of imports in the future. Autarky is impossible.
Glockenspiel
Posts: 1096
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:20 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Glockenspiel »

striker79 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:03 am We need more stimulus!...So big companies can use that money to buyback shares, instead of actually circulating it into the economy. Then we can all watch our retirement accounts grow and pat ourselves on the back for staying the course and adhering to boglehead principles.
+1
sabhen
Posts: 260
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2016 1:03 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by sabhen »

Will this be true for the things we need (in the US): Housing, Healthcare, Education?
dziuniek
Posts: 869
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm
Location: Corrupticut

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by dziuniek »

sabhen wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:00 am Will this be true for the things we need (in the US): Housing, Healthcare, Education?
Housing: Absolutely possible. Is it mass foreclosure season yet or is that slated for august/september?

Healthcare: Absolutely possible. Say a certain presidential candidate wins and pushes nationalized health care? Who knows!

Education: Absolutely possible. With the virus and all - maybe less student will live on campus (less $ for dorms/apartments - online study only). Maybe more people will go to cheaper schools since more will be taking courses online only. Outside of IVY - maybe less are willing to shell out 50k / yr for online coursework. Personally, I wouldn't. So it's possible, sure.
snowman
Posts: 1170
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:59 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by snowman »

SimpleGift wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 pm
snowman wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:50 pm Can someone please tell me when I can expect my property taxes, homeowners insurance, health insurance, healthcare bills, car insurance, and college bills to deflate? I have seen significant inflation over the last 12 months, ranging from 5% to 30% depending on item. And I shop around! Deflation is apparently everywhere except for where I live. What am I missing?
What may not be immediately obvious is that almost everything that can be produced in a low-cost country (China, Vietnam, Mexico, etc.) over the last decade has been declining in price, often dramatically — while those goods and (mostly) services that cannot have been increasing in price.

You may have seen this chart showing a breakdown of price changes in various categories for 2005-2014:
So while the price of goods has generally been getting cheaper, the price of services has mostly been increasing.
Thanks for the chart, SimpleGift. It illustrates my point quite nicely. Literally 99% of my spending is in the inflation category - college, healthcare, insurance, taxes, food, and in my area housing too. I bought 1 TV and 1 laptop in the last 10 years, paid $30 for my phone 3 years ago, don't pay for data plan, don't buy toys, rarely buy any new clothing. About the only budget line item experiencing deflation is gas, but again it does me no good when I am not allowed to leave my house.

I understand macroeconomics quite well, and there were many good points made by posters in this thread. I also understand things can change, sometimes rather quickly and unexpectedly. Yes, deflation is possible. All I am saying is that in real world I live in, there isn't even a hint of current or delayed deflation on the horizon, quite the opposite. Let's take a look.

College - the usual 3-4% increase for next year.
Healthcare premiums and copays - no idea about the number, but it's never been negative, I bet it will be positive again. I am hoping for just a single digit increase.
HO and car Insurance - I was told by more than one insurance company to expect continuous large premium increases as they are losing money in my state. HO just went up 25%, car 10%.
Property taxes will be on the ballot again this November - school district wants more money, you all know how it works. The best I can hope for is for taxes not to go up. If we go by history, increase will be approved. Either way, no deflation for me, not even "delayed" one.
Food prices keep going up, albeit gently. I don't expect deflation there either, but this category doesn't really bother me as it's being dwarfed by all of the above.

Can some real person respond and let me know where and how one has to live to experience "deflation everywhere"?
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 5981
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by watchnerd »

austin757 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:45 pm I am currently 100% stock. Would Vanguard EDV ETF be a good fund for these times?
You're late to the party.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP
dziuniek
Posts: 869
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm
Location: Corrupticut

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by dziuniek »

You mean late for the drop and watching your money burn :)
User avatar
Harry Livermore
Posts: 498
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:32 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Harry Livermore »

jeffyscott wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:58 am
That is the way property taxes work, in general, and something that many do not understand.
Yup, I've always understood that, and am constantly amazed how friends and neighbors don't get it.
When I was much younger, a fresh new 26 year old homeowner, I was enlightened and impressed by going to my small town's meetings and hearing little blue haired ladies get up and speak at the town budget meetings. They would chastise the board for what they deemed free-spending ways. They literally would look at line expenditures in the budget and ask things like "we seem to be paying too much for heating oil at town hall!" They absolutely were a damper on upward pressure on the budget. I loved them all dearly. Sadly they are all gone now.
The worst people at the meetings are usually new to town, fresh faced city transplants with not a whiff of thriftiness about them. Comments seem to range from the very tired "I want the ABSOLUTE BEST for my kids!" to the always amusing "You know what we had in (insert name of community they moved from)? A town rec center!" (or alternately, "an ice rink!" or "turn of the century gas streetlights!")
When you ask them why they moved from (insert name of community) the response always seemed to be "oh, god, the taxes just got out of control!"
:oops:
Cheers
ETA: grammar
Last edited by Harry Livermore on Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
hicabob
Posts: 3159
Joined: Fri May 27, 2011 5:35 pm
Location: cruz

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by hicabob »

I just looked at booking some SWA flights. Price seems to be much higher than usual with, as expected, much less choice of flights.
User avatar
Gray
Posts: 788
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:33 am
Location: Virginia

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Gray »

I’ll believe deflation once college and health care costs stop rising like they are. Add to that, my house’s rising value...and the property taxes that I can’t fully deduct due to SALT repeal.
finite_difference
Posts: 1997
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by finite_difference »

BogleMelon wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:57 am In NJ rent and housing are so stubborn and refuse to go down.
Yeah, or Cali real estate prices.

0.4% decline in dairy may be the start of something but seems pretty tame.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
User avatar
ray.james
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ray.james »

SimpleGift wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 pm

What may not be immediately obvious is that almost everything that can be produced in a low-cost country (China, Vietnam, Mexico, etc.) over the last decade has been declining in price, often dramatically — while those goods and (mostly) services that cannot have been increasing in price.

You may have seen this chart showing a breakdown of price changes in various categories for 2005-2014:
So while the price of goods has generally been getting cheaper, the price of services has mostly been increasing.
Housing data does not seem to be right for most metropolitan areas. Is this chart tracking CPI-U data?
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
finite_difference
Posts: 1997
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by finite_difference »

snowman wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:11 am
SimpleGift wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 pm
snowman wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:50 pm Can someone please tell me when I can expect my property taxes, homeowners insurance, health insurance, healthcare bills, car insurance, and college bills to deflate? I have seen significant inflation over the last 12 months, ranging from 5% to 30% depending on item. And I shop around! Deflation is apparently everywhere except for where I live. What am I missing?
What may not be immediately obvious is that almost everything that can be produced in a low-cost country (China, Vietnam, Mexico, etc.) over the last decade has been declining in price, often dramatically — while those goods and (mostly) services that cannot have been increasing in price.

You may have seen this chart showing a breakdown of price changes in various categories for 2005-2014:
So while the price of goods has generally been getting cheaper, the price of services has mostly been increasing.
Thanks for the chart, SimpleGift. It illustrates my point quite nicely. Literally 99% of my spending is in the inflation category - college, healthcare, insurance, taxes, food, and in my area housing too. I bought 1 TV and 1 laptop in the last 10 years, paid $30 for my phone 3 years ago, don't pay for data plan, don't buy toys, rarely buy any new clothing. About the only budget line item experiencing deflation is gas, but again it does me no good when I am not allowed to leave my house.

I understand macroeconomics quite well, and there were many good points made by posters in this thread. I also understand things can change, sometimes rather quickly and unexpectedly. Yes, deflation is possible. All I am saying is that in real world I live in, there isn't even a hint of current or delayed deflation on the horizon, quite the opposite. Let's take a look.

College - the usual 3-4% increase for next year.
Healthcare premiums and copays - no idea about the number, but it's never been negative, I bet it will be positive again. I am hoping for just a single digit increase.
HO and car Insurance - I was told by more than one insurance company to expect continuous large premium increases as they are losing money in my state. HO just went up 25%, car 10%.
Property taxes will be on the ballot again this November - school district wants more money, you all know how it works. The best I can hope for is for taxes not to go up. If we go by history, increase will be approved. Either way, no deflation for me, not even "delayed" one.
Food prices keep going up, albeit gently. I don't expect deflation there either, but this category doesn't really bother me as it's being dwarfed by all of the above.

Can some real person respond and let me know where and how one has to live to experience "deflation everywhere"?
Moving to a LCOL or MCOL area helps a lot.

College expenses are growing ridiculously: apply to multiple schools, in state and out of state, and pick the one that provides after scholarships the best bang for the buck.

Health care: try to find an employer that has good benefits. Take good care of yourself (eat healthy and exercise and sleep.)

Vehicle: drive a used Toyota or Honda and get a good independent mechanic.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
User avatar
SimpleGift
Posts: 3869
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:45 pm
Location: Central Oregon

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by SimpleGift »

ray.james wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:03 am Housing data does not seem to be right for most metropolitan areas. Is this chart tracking CPI-U data?
Yes, the chart is based on CPI-U data for selected items from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It has this technical note:
Bureau of Labor Statistics wrote:Data is collected from retail stores and adjusted by specialists to reflect changes in quantity offered in a product or an increase in quality. Much of the drop in prices for electronics reflects an increase in quality over the past 10 years.
One can find more discussion of the chart in this Forbes article from 2017.
Frank2012
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:16 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Frank2012 »

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:34 am I have three words for you, my animal fur-clad friend.

Long. Term. Treasuries.
So true HEDGFUNDIE. And notwithstanding Ray "Cash is Trash" Dalio, I'm really loving cash right now.
evancox10
Posts: 111
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 11:25 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by evancox10 »

SimpleGift wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 pm
snowman wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:50 pm Can someone please tell me when I can expect my property taxes, homeowners insurance, health insurance, healthcare bills, car insurance, and college bills to deflate? I have seen significant inflation over the last 12 months, ranging from 5% to 30% depending on item. And I shop around! Deflation is apparently everywhere except for where I live. What am I missing?
What may not be immediately obvious is that almost everything that can be produced in a low-cost country (China, Vietnam, Mexico, etc.) over the last decade has been declining in price, often dramatically — while those goods and (mostly) services that cannot have been increasing in price.

You may have seen this chart showing a breakdown of price changes in various categories for 2005-2014:
So while the price of goods has generally been getting cheaper, the price of services has mostly been increasing.
Anyone else see a problem with trying to claim that TV prices have fallen more than 100%? Pretty sure that (unlike oil!), I cannot walk into a BestBuy and get paid to take a TV away.

I think I know why they are doing this (has to do with the quality of TVs today compared to older TVs maybe), but this just seems entirely divorced from reality.
User avatar
MP123
Posts: 1661
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:32 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by MP123 »

SimpleGift wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:11 am One can find more discussion of the chart in this Forbes article from 2017.
That article could benefit from some serious proofreading and spell checking. Is that what's happened to Forbes?

Anyway, I guess I have a bit of a problem with Hedonic quality adjustments. If the price of a new computer stays the same but now it's twice as fast, that doesn't mean the price has deflated in any meaningful sense. At least not to anyone that needs to buy a new computer.
User avatar
ThunderTurtle
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:47 am
Location: Texas

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ThunderTurtle »

fredflinstone wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:32 am Real estate prices in Dallas are falling:
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... aded-down/
I do think real estate prices will decline over time but that same article says Miami is down 19% while Los Angeles is up 27%. How does one make sense of that? They're talking asking prices so maybe it's meaningless. It's hard to trust anything on real estate that comes from the real estate industry itself.
User avatar
jeffyscott
Posts: 9147
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:12 am
Location: Wisconsin

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by jeffyscott »

Even without hedonic adjustment, TV and computers are cheaper, though.

We paid $400 or so for a 27 inch TV back when that was a big screen. Today I can buy a larger screen TV than that for less than half the price.

A 386 computer was $3-4K back in the 1990s. A better computer today is maybe somewhere around 1/10th of that.
The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions. ― John C. Bogle
patrick
Posts: 1791
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 3:39 am
Location: Mega-City One

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by patrick »

MP123 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:48 am
SimpleGift wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:11 am One can find more discussion of the chart in this Forbes article from 2017.
That article could benefit from some serious proofreading and spell checking. Is that what's happened to Forbes?

Anyway, I guess I have a bit of a problem with Hedonic quality adjustments. If the price of a new computer stays the same but now it's twice as fast, that doesn't mean the price has deflated in any meaningful sense. At least not to anyone that needs to buy a new computer.
If you need a computer which is at least as powerful as a $2000 computer purchased 15 years ago, the price you had to pay 15 years ago was $2000, but now it is under $400. If only the best computers sold today suit you, that means that you are demanding something previously not available in the consumer market at all, so that's not an example of the price staying the same. The only case where you don't see a big price decline is if your requirements are very low; if you were already satisfied by the cheapest computer sold 15 years ago, then the cheapest computer today may not be much cheaper, though you still are getting more.
evancox10
Posts: 111
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 11:25 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by evancox10 »

patrick wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:14 pm
MP123 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:48 am
SimpleGift wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:11 am One can find more discussion of the chart in this Forbes article from 2017.
That article could benefit from some serious proofreading and spell checking. Is that what's happened to Forbes?

Anyway, I guess I have a bit of a problem with Hedonic quality adjustments. If the price of a new computer stays the same but now it's twice as fast, that doesn't mean the price has deflated in any meaningful sense. At least not to anyone that needs to buy a new computer.
If you need a computer which is at least as powerful as a $2000 computer purchased 15 years ago, the price you had to pay 15 years ago was $2000, but now it is under $400. If only the best computers sold today suit you, that means that you are demanding something previously not available in the consumer market at all, so that's not an example of the price staying the same. The only case where you don't see a big price decline is if your requirements are very low; if you were already satisfied by the cheapest computer sold 15 years ago, then the cheapest computer today may not be much cheaper, though you still are getting more.
Part of the point is that everyone’s requirements have gone up, and we frequently judge how well off we are on a relative basis, comparing our situation to others, and not on an absolute basis. It would be interesting to see CPI without hedonic adjustment, and just based on the “median-quality” items that most people are buying.

Edit: I realize that in isolation the CPI isn’t trying to determine things like “how well off people are or feel”, it is just a data series. But it feeds into so many things, from analyses of poverty rates and wage growth, to COLA adjustments for pensions/SS, that in practice it is vitally important to have something that accurately reflects people’s lived experiences.
User avatar
ray.james
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ray.james »

SimpleGift wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:11 am
ray.james wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:03 am Housing data does not seem to be right for most metropolitan areas. Is this chart tracking CPI-U data?
Yes, the chart is based on CPI-U data for selected items from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It has this technical note:
Bureau of Labor Statistics wrote:Data is collected from retail stores and adjusted by specialists to reflect changes in quantity offered in a product or an increase in quality. Much of the drop in prices for electronics reflects an increase in quality over the past 10 years.
One can find more discussion of the chart in this Forbes article from 2017.
Thanks, that article explains few items. I misunderstood the graph. It implies housing tracks inflation which I think is true for most american families as it makes up 35-50% of expenses.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
patrick
Posts: 1791
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 3:39 am
Location: Mega-City One

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by patrick »

evancox10 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:20 pm
patrick wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:14 pm If you need a computer which is at least as powerful as a $2000 computer purchased 15 years ago, the price you had to pay 15 years ago was $2000, but now it is under $400. If only the best computers sold today suit you, that means that you are demanding something previously not available in the consumer market at all, so that's not an example of the price staying the same. The only case where you don't see a big price decline is if your requirements are very low; if you were already satisfied by the cheapest computer sold 15 years ago, then the cheapest computer today may not be much cheaper, though you still are getting more.
Part of the point is that everyone’s requirements have gone up, and we frequently judge how well off we are on a relative basis, comparing our situation to others, and not on an absolute basis. It would be interesting to see CPI without hedonic adjustment, and just based on the “median-quality” items that most people are buying.

Edit: I realize that in isolation the CPI isn’t trying to determine things like “how well off people are or feel”, it is just a data series. But it feeds into so many things, from analyses of poverty rates and wage growth, to COLA adjustments for pensions/SS, that in practice it is vitally important to have something that accurately reflects people’s lived experiences.
Even the median computer price has probably declined a bit. The change wouldn't make much of a difference on the overall CPI -- take a look at the CPI weighting of various consumer electronics hardware categories (per https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative ... e/2019.txt):

0.298% Computers, peripherals, and smart home assistant devices
0.097% Televisions
0.094% Telephone hardware, calculators, and other consumer information items
0.078% Audio equipment
0.042% Other video equipment

On the other hand, looking solely at median prices in other areas would yield a huge inflation result. Housing is a much larger percentage of the CPI, and houses have gotten much larger over the last several decades, giving a large boost to the median new house price.
stocknoob4111
Posts: 1510
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by stocknoob4111 »

SimpleGift wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 pm
snowman wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:50 pm Can someone please tell me when I can expect my property taxes, homeowners insurance, health insurance, healthcare bills, car insurance, and college bills to deflate? I have seen significant inflation over the last 12 months, ranging from 5% to 30% depending on item. And I shop around! Deflation is apparently everywhere except for where I live. What am I missing?
What may not be immediately obvious is that almost everything that can be produced in a low-cost country (China, Vietnam, Mexico, etc.) over the last decade has been declining in price, often dramatically — while those goods and (mostly) services that cannot have been increasing in price.

You may have seen this chart showing a breakdown of price changes in various categories for 2005-2014:
So while the price of goods has generally been getting cheaper, the price of services has mostly been increasing.
housing has not fallen, that is a joke... I live in LA, housing here has skyrocketed, even higher than the 2007 peak.. and both home prices and rents are still rising despite millions unemployed right now.. not sure why.
User avatar
ThunderTurtle
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:47 am
Location: Texas

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ThunderTurtle »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:47 pm housing has not fallen, that is a joke... I live in LA, housing here has skyrocketed, even higher than the 2007 peak.. and both home prices and rents are still rising despite millions unemployed right now.. not sure why.
People aren't selling so inventory is still low. It's interesting that there are less sellers and less buyers. I would expect things to tip slightly to the buyer's side in a few months due to unemployment and more so after a year when mortgage forbearance expires. Hopefully the jobs will come rushing back before then. Prices are unrealistically high in LA if you ask me (based on the median income). But who am I to guess the future?
alfaspider
Posts: 3036
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by alfaspider »

jeffyscott wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:12 pm Even without hedonic adjustment, TV and computers are cheaper, though.

We paid $400 or so for a 27 inch TV back when that was a big screen. Today I can buy a larger screen TV than that for less than half the price.

A 386 computer was $3-4K back in the 1990s. A better computer today is maybe somewhere around 1/10th of that.
Heck, a $35 raspberry pi is significantly more powerful than a 386. In fact, it's significantly more powerful than a Pentium III from the late 1990s. Your late-model smartphone has more computing power than IBM's "Deep Blue" supercomputer from 1997.

These costs are not just the result of outsourcing to cheap production locations- there have been incredible advances in the design and manufacturing.
User avatar
ray.james
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ray.james »

ThunderTurtle wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:47 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:47 pm housing has not fallen, that is a joke... I live in LA, housing here has skyrocketed, even higher than the 2007 peak.. and both home prices and rents are still rising despite millions unemployed right now.. not sure why.
People aren't selling so inventory is still low. It's interesting that there are less sellers and less buyers. I would expect things to tip slightly to the buyer's side in a few months due to unemployment and more so after a year when mortgage forbearance expires. Hopefully the jobs will come rushing back before then. Prices are unrealistically high in LA if you ask me (based on the median income). But who am I to guess the future?
Do note, in this particular chart the flat line is the inflation rate. Anything under means these are lower than inflation rate. vice-versa.
If housing makes up 30% of CPI, chart implies inflation tracks the housing cost very closely.

Now the question is, does "your" housing cost changed same as inflation by BLS over years. This needs to account for changes in sq.ft; changes in luxury materials like counter tops etc., Even then California will be at least 250-350 basis points higher compared to rest of the country.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
User avatar
jeffyscott
Posts: 9147
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:12 am
Location: Wisconsin

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by jeffyscott »

ray.james wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:07 pm
ThunderTurtle wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:47 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:47 pm housing has not fallen, that is a joke... I live in LA, housing here has skyrocketed, even higher than the 2007 peak.. and both home prices and rents are still rising despite millions unemployed right now.. not sure why.
People aren't selling so inventory is still low. It's interesting that there are less sellers and less buyers. I would expect things to tip slightly to the buyer's side in a few months due to unemployment and more so after a year when mortgage forbearance expires. Hopefully the jobs will come rushing back before then. Prices are unrealistically high in LA if you ask me (based on the median income). But who am I to guess the future?
Do note, in this particular chart the flat line is the inflation rate. Anything under means these are lower than inflation rate. vice-versa.
If housing makes up 30% of CPI, chart implies inflation tracks the housing cost very closely.

Now the question is, does "your" housing cost changed same as inflation by BLS over years. This needs to account for changes in sq.ft; changes in luxury materials like counter tops etc., Even then California will be at least 250-350 basis points higher compared to rest of the country.
Ah, that also explains the -100%+ for TVs.
The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions. ― John C. Bogle
JonnyB
Posts: 688
Joined: Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:28 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by JonnyB »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:47 pm housing has not fallen, that is a joke... I live in LA, housing here has skyrocketed, even higher than the 2007 peak.. and both home prices and rents are still rising despite millions unemployed right now.. not sure why.
Sorry, but you are not average. CPI is calculated by averaging the entire country, not just LA.

If it makes you feel any better, the BLS also breaks down CPI for the northeast, south, midwest, and west. And further subdivisions of those, for example mountain west and pacific west.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-pri ... region.htm

For example inflation for the last year in the south has been 1.1%
https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/n ... _south.htm

In the west it has been 2.5%.
https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-r ... x_west.htm

The BLS isn't hiding anything from you. It's all there for you to see if you just bother to look.
Turbo29
Posts: 868
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 7:12 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Turbo29 »

ignition wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:31 am
striker79 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:03 am We need more stimulus!...So big companies can use that money to buyback shares, instead of actually circulating it into the economy. Then we can all watch our retirement accounts grow and pat ourselves on the back for staying the course and adhering to boglehead principles.
Why wouldn't that money circulate into the economy? Who do you think these companies buy back shares from?
Exactly. When they were buying their shares back someone else was selling, maybe even someone in this very forum, and they got the money and spent it or re-balanced.
It is by the goodness of God that in our country we have those three unspeakably precious things: freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, and the prudence never to practice either of them. --M. Twain
ballons
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:05 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ballons »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:47 pm housing has not fallen, that is a joke... I live in LA, housing here has skyrocketed, even higher than the 2007 peak.. and both home prices and rents are still rising despite millions unemployed right now.. not sure why.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA

LA bubble:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRSA
User avatar
Stef
Posts: 1144
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Stef »

evancox10 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:44 amAnyone else see a problem with trying to claim that TV prices have fallen more than 100%? Pretty sure that (unlike oil!), I cannot walk into a BestBuy and get paid to take a TV away.

I think I know why they are doing this (has to do with the quality of TVs today compared to older TVs maybe), but this just seems entirely divorced from reality.
Lol, nobody addressing that?
Leesbro63
Posts: 6785
Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:36 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Leesbro63 »

I fess that I didn’t read the whole thread...sorry if this has been discussed. But I suspect one area that won’t deflate is health care costs. Boglehead types (upper middle class who don’t qualify for health subsidies) are going to be the main revenue source for the vastly expanded and under funded health care system. So I wouldn’t spend all those extra dollars saved on deflation elsewhere quite so fast. I don’t see Boglehead taxes deflating either.
User avatar
jeffyscott
Posts: 9147
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:12 am
Location: Wisconsin

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by jeffyscott »

Stef wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:36 pm
evancox10 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:44 amAnyone else see a problem with trying to claim that TV prices have fallen more than 100%? Pretty sure that (unlike oil!), I cannot walk into a BestBuy and get paid to take a TV away.

I think I know why they are doing this (has to do with the quality of TVs today compared to older TVs maybe), but this just seems entirely divorced from reality.
Lol, nobody addressing that?
Actually it was addressed, just a few post up the page: "...the flat line is the inflation rate".

It's a little blurry but the chart actually says "change in prices relative to a 23% increase in CPI" and it also appears to indicate the numbers represent percentage points difference. So 23-110, puts TV price change as this is measured by BLS at about -87%.
The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions. ― John C. Bogle
Rosencrantz1
Posts: 561
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

texnic wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:33 am While everybody is scared by deflation, it is inflation that is the largest threat to a consumer. If prices go down 1% per year - are we going to buy less food? Drive fewer miles to work? Maybe buy a smaller house? The answer is likely no. It just might be that deflation is an indicator of problems in economy but not the problem on its own.
Central banks fear deflation for very good reasons - especially in a consumer driven economy (with comparatively low savings rate) like the US. Deflation, I suspect, tends to 'chill' consumerism (why buy now when I can get it for less in the future?) and then it (deflation) can cause its own self realizing feed-back loop.

Some have mentioned the Fed's printing press - and that, I think, is certainly a tool. BUT, what are the effects of 1. the dollar being the world's reserve currency? and 2. The global nature of supply lines? Would these issues potentially cause problems trying to reignite inflation? I didn't major in economics - soooo... this is just my 0.02 cents :beer
User avatar
gmaynardkrebs
Posts: 2128
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:48 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:55 pm
texnic wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:33 am While everybody is scared by deflation, it is inflation that is the largest threat to a consumer. If prices go down 1% per year - are we going to buy less food? Drive fewer miles to work? Maybe buy a smaller house? The answer is likely no. It just might be that deflation is an indicator of problems in economy but not the problem on its own.
Central banks fear deflation for very good reasons - especially in a consumer driven economy (with comparatively low savings rate) like the US. Deflation, I suspect, tends to 'chill' consumerism (why buy now when I can get it for less in the future?) and then it (deflation) can cause its own self realizing feed-back loop.

Some have mentioned the Fed's printing press - and that, I think, is certainly a tool. BUT, what are the effects of 1. the dollar being the world's reserve currency? and 2. The global nature of supply lines? Would these issues potentially cause problems trying to reignite inflation? I didn't major in economics - soooo... this is just my 0.02 cents :beer
The deflation argument seems largely specious to me with regard to consumer spending. I have bought LED TVs, laptops, iPhones, clothing, books, and myriad other consumer/personal item etc etc in full awareness that they will probably be cheaper at some point in the future, as have most of you. The deflation argument is almost totally about propping up asset prices.
mptfan
Posts: 6205
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by mptfan »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:15 pmThe deflation argument seems largely specious to me with regard to consumer spending. I have bought LED TVs, laptops, iPhones, clothing, books, and myriad other consumer/personal item etc etc in full awareness that they will probably be cheaper at some point in the future, as have most of you.
I agree. If you follow that argument to it's conclusion, no one would ever buy electronics.
Rosencrantz1
Posts: 561
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:15 pm
Rosencrantz1 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:55 pm
texnic wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:33 am While everybody is scared by deflation, it is inflation that is the largest threat to a consumer. If prices go down 1% per year - are we going to buy less food? Drive fewer miles to work? Maybe buy a smaller house? The answer is likely no. It just might be that deflation is an indicator of problems in economy but not the problem on its own.
Central banks fear deflation for very good reasons - especially in a consumer driven economy (with comparatively low savings rate) like the US. Deflation, I suspect, tends to 'chill' consumerism (why buy now when I can get it for less in the future?) and then it (deflation) can cause its own self realizing feed-back loop.

Some have mentioned the Fed's printing press - and that, I think, is certainly a tool. BUT, what are the effects of 1. the dollar being the world's reserve currency? and 2. The global nature of supply lines? Would these issues potentially cause problems trying to reignite inflation? I didn't major in economics - soooo... this is just my 0.02 cents :beer
The deflation argument seems largely specious to me with regard to consumer spending. I have bought LED TVs, laptops, iPhones, clothing, books, and myriad other consumer/personal item etc etc in full awareness that they will probably be cheaper at some point in the future, as have most of you. The deflation argument is almost totally about propping up asset prices.
I hope you're right. I've seen several articles about the 'deflationary spiral'. Can you tell me - is there a specific reason our central bank has a goal of 2% inflation?

From Investopedia - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/de ... spiral.asp

You're certainly right about electronics - - but, in my experience, I pay more for houses, cars, boats, home repairs, food, restaurant foods, lawn maintenance, hair cuts, and clothes than I did in years past. Heck, the last iPhone we bought was 2X the first one.
texnic
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:45 pm

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by texnic »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:15 pm
The deflation argument seems largely specious to me with regard to consumer spending. I have bought LED TVs, laptops, iPhones, clothing, books, and myriad other consumer/personal item etc etc in full awareness that they will probably be cheaper at some point in the future, as have most of you. The deflation argument is almost totally about propping up asset prices.
I could not agree more! Will anybody buy less food or ride a bike instead of driving because next year prices are 1% lower? This is absurd. Defer a college for several years so it can be 3% cheaper? And how is it not better than constant pricing out with inflation that we have had for at least the last 80 years?

Please excuse me, I am going to do fasting for a couple of months - I heard we will have a deflation period soon!
User avatar
Stef
Posts: 1144
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by Stef »

Isn't price stability the most important thing? So 1%/year deflation would be equally good as 1%/year inflation?
User avatar
ray.james
Posts: 1380
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:08 am

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Post by ray.james »

texnic wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:47 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:15 pm
The deflation argument seems largely specious to me with regard to consumer spending. I have bought LED TVs, laptops, iPhones, clothing, books, and myriad other consumer/personal item etc etc in full awareness that they will probably be cheaper at some point in the future, as have most of you. The deflation argument is almost totally about propping up asset prices.
I could not agree more! Will anybody buy less food or ride a bike instead of driving because next year prices are 1% lower? This is absurd. Defer a college for several years so it can be 3% cheaper? And how is it not better than constant pricing out with inflation that we have had for at least the last 80 years?

Please excuse me, I am going to do fasting for a couple of months - I heard we will have a deflation period soon!
I think you are misunderstanding. Deflation due to productivity improvement, cost improvement changes are net positive to GDP. We actually do measure the productivity improvement as part of GDP growth. The deflation this thread is addressing is due to demand destruction. An example is falling incomes, pandemic killing 2-5% of world population, loss of consumer confidence etc.,

Thought experiment : Why did great depression cause deflation even though food was scarce, imports fell, Land was super cheap - yet no buyers.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Locked