The New Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns, a

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thorn
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The New Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Guns, a

Post by thorn » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:08 pm

http://nymag.com/news/features/all-new/53372/
While it may look like these Wall Streeters are betting on such a collapse, their embrace of survivalism is an outgrowth of their professional habits of mind: Having observed the economy’s shaky high-wire act from their ringside seats, they are trying to manage their risk and “hedge” against a potential fall. “It’s like insurance,” says an investor who has stockpiled MREs and a hand-cranked radio. “And by the time you need it, it’s way too late.” Leave it for others to weep for the collapse of the social order. These guys would prefer to be in a high-speed boat or ex-military vehicle, heading off toward their fully provisioned compounds in pursuit of the ultimate goal: to win the chaos.

huskerblue
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Post by huskerblue » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:25 pm

Three words:

Hale Bopp comet.

eurowizard
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Post by eurowizard » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:42 pm

Awesome. I should be able to get some good deals on 2 year old MREs in 2 years after the survivalist paranoia dies down. Its like Y2K02 all over again ;)

unclemick
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Post by unclemick » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:52 pm

Hmmm - gold, guns and freeze dryed food the last time around.

MRE's eh - so this time maybe it really is different.

heh heh heh - 8) While I was busy playing around - Mr B's first(aka the Index 500) bailed my tush out via slow but steady DCA in my 401k. I woke up after the fact. :lol: :lol: :lol: stay the course, hurry up just stand there, you get what you don't pay for. :wink: Now I did enjoy the low weight freeze dryed food while backpacking, before glasses could actually hit a few clay pigeons, and still have a few gold coins in the Deposit Box at the bank. But my retirement rides on balanced index.
Last edited by unclemick on Wed Jan 14, 2009 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Speedie
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Post by Speedie » Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:57 pm

Yes, yes, yes, but what are the correct weightings? I have 26 guns but no MREs. Time to rebalance?

taxman
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Post by taxman » Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:46 am

Speedie wrote:Yes, yes, yes, but what are the correct weightings? I have 26 guns but no MREs. Time to rebalance?
"Fear the man with one gun, he probabally knows how to use it" :wink: that said i've to many also and am downsizing and consoididating calibers as ammos becoming expensive!. As for MRE's I've a few weeks worth, plus alot of untaintd water :lol:

Speedie
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Post by Speedie » Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:59 am

taxman wrote:"Fear the man with one gun, he probabally knows how to use it" :wink: that said i've to many also and am downsizing and consoididating calibers as ammos becoming expensive!. As for MRE's I've a few weeks worth, plus alot of untaintd water :lol:
Well true, but I only carry one at a time :)

I swear ammo and AR-15 lowers were my best performing investments in 2008. Close to a 30% return on the lowers after November. Like you, I'm trying to standardize, in my case to 5.56mm and .308 (rifles), 12 gauge (shotties), and 9mm / .45 in handguns. Perhaps I can rebalance by trading my Mosins for MREs :lol:

Valuethinker
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Re: The New Paranoia: Hedge-Funders Are Bullish on Gold, Gun

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Jan 15, 2009 12:04 pm

thorn wrote:http://nymag.com/news/features/all-new/53372/
While it may look like these Wall Streeters are betting on such a collapse, their embrace of survivalism is an outgrowth of their professional habits of mind: Having observed the economy’s shaky high-wire act from their ringside seats, they are trying to manage their risk and “hedge” against a potential fall. “It’s like insurance,” says an investor who has stockpiled MREs and a hand-cranked radio. “And by the time you need it, it’s way too late.” Leave it for others to weep for the collapse of the social order. These guys would prefer to be in a high-speed boat or ex-military vehicle, heading off toward their fully provisioned compounds in pursuit of the ultimate goal: to win the chaos.
Go long .223 and short .45 cal.

Perfectly hedged ;-).

james22
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Post by james22 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:11 pm

As a wealthy person, you should have 5% of your money in a safe haven. You should have another 5% in a farm.

http://www.amazon.com/Wealth-War-Wisdom ... bb_product

Mitchell777
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Post by Mitchell777 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 3:22 pm

I'm not smart enough to know what the future holds. I've seen more fear in the past several months than I've seen in my lifetime. I have friends going without healthcare and many who have lost their jobs and taken huge pay cuts in their new jobs. The government has enormous debts. I do not laugh at how anyone handles these fears. If someone has worked and sacrificed all their lives and decides keeping 5 ot 10% of their net worth in gold, or a farm or stockpiling food or whatever, who am I to judge. Now if they are selling everything, and moving into a fallout shelter, well it's too much for me but it's their decision and we all draw the line at different places.

Valuethinker
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Post by Valuethinker » Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:37 pm

Mitchell777 wrote:I'm not smart enough to know what the future holds. I've seen more fear in the past several months than I've seen in my lifetime. I have friends going without healthcare and many who have lost their jobs and taken huge pay cuts in their new jobs. The government has enormous debts. I do not laugh at how anyone handles these fears. If someone has worked and sacrificed all their lives and decides keeping 5 ot 10% of their net worth in gold, or a farm or stockpiling food or whatever, who am I to judge. Now if they are selling everything, and moving into a fallout shelter, well it's too much for me but it's their decision and we all draw the line at different places.
Then we are overreacting.

Because the 70s was much worse: gas crisis (2), US president impeached, urban guerilla movements in many countries, high inflation, severe strikes. At the same time the Cold War, culminating in the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, the crackdown in Poland against Solidarity, and the Revolution in Iran.

I grant you things are pretty scary, but despite 14 years of hell, Japan did not collapse. Granted it had advantages over the US (more stable social system) but fundamentally it did not collapse.

There are looming environmental problems. These we should be very scared about, because they are very scary.

We will get through these dark economic times. It will not be easy, nor quick.

But the situation in the US and in many other countries (Italy, UK, even Canada) in the 70s was, at times, a lot worse.

taxman
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Post by taxman » Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:31 pm

Speedie wrote:
taxman wrote:"Fear the man with one gun, he probabally knows how to use it" :wink: that said i've to many also and am downsizing and consoididating calibers as ammos becoming expensive!. As for MRE's I've a few weeks worth, plus alot of untaintd water :lol:
Well true, but I only carry one at a time :)

I swear ammo and AR-15 lowers were my best performing investments in 2008. Close to a 30% return on the lowers after November. Like you, I'm trying to standardize, in my case to 5.56mm and .308 (rifles), 12 gauge (shotties), and 9mm / .45 in handguns. Perhaps I can rebalance by trading my Mosins for MREs :lol:
:lol: I know EXACTALY what your saying. AR-15 lowers went "wak" I think the kids say, the last 6months! ~ Now lets not start the 9mm-vs-.45acp stopping power debate! :wink:

Mitchell777
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Post by Mitchell777 » Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:31 pm

"Then we are overreacting"
Reading my message, I was responding to how this crisis has affected me personally and those around me. I’m not sure how anyone knows that anyone else is overreacting to the specific events surrounding them.

Regarding the 70’s. First, there was no president impeached during the 70’s although I’m sure it was headed that way. I will admit the high inflation had me very concerned but it’s the only thing that had me very concerned. I sat in the gas lines but did not have great fear for the future. Japan? Did not concern me as this current crisis in my own country does.

"urban guerilla movements in many countries"
Really ?– Perhaps we are overreacting

Easy Rhino
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Post by Easy Rhino » Thu Jan 15, 2009 7:54 pm

A friend of mine is already there, he was there with Peak Oil Concerns back in 2007. MREs and gun safe in the basement, solar panels, electric car, physical gold, maybe even some physical fuel storage somewhere.

biasion
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Post by biasion » Thu Jan 15, 2009 8:32 pm

Valuethinker wrote: But the situation in the US and in many other countries (Italy, UK, even Canada) in the 70s was, at times, a lot worse.
Oh yes it was, boy are you ever right! I remember my parents cursing Qaddafi and the red & black brigades as we lived in great fear of them. There were all kinds of terrorist activities in Italy ~25-30 years ago, with all kinds of nastiness. Literally, people were planting bombs in public places on a regular basis. It was bad, very bad, with many associated assasinations, "staged suicides", people disappearing. I am very much glad it's over. Now isn't so bad, even with this Al Qaeda baloney and everyone's 401k in the toilet. It may get worse, but we have a long way to go until we get back to that.

Check these photos out:
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strage_di_Bologna

That was one of the worst, but there were many like that :(
(of note, one guy tried to bomb a bridge and ended up blowing himself up as well!)

Valuethinker
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Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:22 am

Mitchell777 wrote:"

Regarding the 70’s. First, there was no president impeached during the 70’s although I’m sure it was headed that way.
The Senate debate on impeachment was, I believe, already taking place or about to. So yes, it was days or weeks away.
I will admit the high inflation had me very concerned but it’s the only thing that had me very concerned.
Unemployment peaked above the level now. It was also a time in many countries of paralytic strikes and industrial action.

New York of course nearly went broke.
I sat in the gas lines but did not have great fear for the future.
The US crisis of confidence was significantly worse than it is now, in the period from Nixon's resignation through to Carter's election (all though it got significantly better when Jerry Ford was sworn in: read '31 Days' about his first month in office).

A second wave of pessimism swept over the US during the second oil crisis, the Iranian Revolution and the Hostage Crisis.

Japan? Did not concern me as this current crisis in my own country does.
The closest thing to the US now may be Japan in 1990, ie facing a prolongued 15 year slump. That is the analogy many (including the Fed) are making, however the point I was making is that although that would test the US, it would not end it.
"urban guerilla movements in many countries"
Really ?– Perhaps we are overreacting
The Weathermen. The SLA - Patty Hearst and all that. The Red Brigades in Italy down to the kidnap and assassination of the Prime Minister. Baader Meinhof in Germany. The IRA was tearing up significant chunks of British cities (Harrods, Birmingham Pub bombing, M24 Coach Bombing etc.) and Belfast and Londonderry looked like modern Baghdad.

The FLQ kidnapped 2 politicians in Quebec and murdered one. Plus sent at least 100 letter bombs.

Although the proximate threat from certain terrorist groups in large 'spectacular' and bloody acts now in western countries, these are largely not home-spun movements. Terrible though the London bombings were, they didn't represent an existential threat to Parliament or the British government.

By contrast, organisations like Baader-Meinhof and SLA sprung from within their societies, and questioned the very nature of democracy. Accompanying their actions there were large scale street protests and violence between protesters and authorities-- by groups also of that part of the political spectrum but which did not endorse violent revolution.

So there was this looming fear that actually revolution would sweep over the West, and the East Bloc would win. Or that we would stage the final nuclear confrontation with them.

I think that your memory is likely to have edited how bad it was at the time. Things worked out alright so we don't remember the 70s as too bad a time.

Valuethinker
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Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:24 am

biasion wrote:
Valuethinker wrote: But the situation in the US and in many other countries (Italy, UK, even Canada) in the 70s was, at times, a lot worse.
Oh yes it was, boy are you ever right! I remember my parents cursing Qaddafi and the red & black brigades as we lived in great fear of them. There were all kinds of terrorist activities in Italy ~25-30 years ago, with all kinds of nastiness. Literally, people were planting bombs in public places on a regular basis. It was bad, very bad, with many associated assasinations, "staged suicides", people disappearing. I am very much glad it's over. Now isn't so bad, even with this Al Qaeda baloney and everyone's 401k in the toilet. It may get worse, but we have a long way to go until we get back to that.

Check these photos out:
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strage_di_Bologna

That was one of the worst, but there were many like that :(
(of note, one guy tried to bomb a bridge and ended up blowing himself up as well!)
The irony of Bologna was that it was a RIGHT wing terrorist group, backed by forces in the security services.

Bologna was a city famous for its efficient and effective communist local government which was much less corrupt than the usual Italian government.

The 'Strategy of Tension' was to destabilise Italy and bring about a crackdown against the left by a series of terrorist acts which could be blamed on the left.

Hence the rape of playwright Dario Fo's wife, and bombings like Bologna (80 dead). It's also likely the security forces allowed Aldo Moro to be kidnapped, because he had negotiated a deal in Parliament with the Communist Party.

Generally the Red Bridgades were more discriminate in their killing.

biasion
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Post by biasion » Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:42 am

Valuethinker wrote: The irony of Bologna was that it was a RIGHT wing terrorist group, backed by forces in the security services.
Maybe. We are not allowed to discuss conspiracy theories. Every few years there is a different version. The hole in the station is still there though.
Valuethinker wrote: Bologna was a city famous for its efficient and effective communist local government which was much less corrupt than the usual Italian government.
Maybe back then. Oh boy, have things gotten bad in BO. They actually ousted (then re-instated, then re-ousted, then re-instated) the communists due to many foolish construction projects. They pulled crap like closing down entire streets of small shops for sometimes years, dropping business to the point of bankruptcy for many of the little businesses in areas where their vote was the strongest. Rumors abounded about how there were bribes in place and the projects were seriously over-budget (like the Big Dig in Boston) on purpose. Now they want all the boroughs to have a public transportation line that is direct to city center and does not need you to change bus. It has to be all fancy, nost just a regular bus you know. So now, because of the construction, a large number of roads which were 2-3 lanes and could be driven on as if they were 4 now only host one lane. The traffic jams in the Bologna suburbs have become absolutely epic as a result. I am not kidding when I say it takes 20 minutes to drive 1km in some of those areas!

Bologna used to be much better administered but considering the intellectual property, wealth and human capital there present (IE, they don't have to deal with slums like they do in Napoli etc) it is probably one of the worst administered towns in the whole country.
Valuethinker wrote: The 'Strategy of Tension' was to destabilise Italy and bring about a crackdown against the left by a series of terrorist acts which could be blamed on the left.

Hence the rape of playwright Dario Fo's wife, and bombings like Bologna (80 dead). It's also likely the security forces allowed Aldo Moro to be kidnapped, because he had negotiated a deal in Parliament with the Communist Party.

Generally the Red Bridgades were more discriminate in their killing.
We will never know the truth. Don't put it past Italians to change sides lightning quick. I don't consider an Italian right winger to be "right wing" for more than the instant they tell you they are "right wing" because that is subject to change quicker than just about any other country you can think of. Think of the most fascist town when Mussolini took over became the most communist after the war (his birthplace) Predappio. I know a lot of communists who voted Berlusconi recently, having known them for many years, and then their political views did a total 180 overnight. They will probably 180 again, it's not like in the states where you are "conservative" or "liberal".

So, to say it was done by right or left is meaningless in modern terms. It may have meant something on the day the act was done, but give Italians more than a few days and not only can right become left, but wrong becomes right and up becomes down. Sweeten the deal with anything palatable to the entity in question, you can get a surprising change lightning quick.

In that sense, although I am very sad to see Italy no longer a country of exuberance like it used to be, for the first time in my life and the second time in history (the first time being under Mussolini), Italians actually all agree now that things are really rotten now and have stopped fighting about it amongst themselves. The fact that there is not this sectionalism will mean by default that things aren't as bad as they were 30 years ago. That is a good thing, but it is tragic that it took this level of national misery to get together and agree. It's quite shocking just to speak to everyone and hear how much "national dysphoria" is present. It's not just the trashy Italian papers writing about scandals, even the NY times and WSJ are printing articles about it. They may all have different reasons, but I think most Italians now can agree, for the first time in history, that indeed they are miserable and they are actually not trying to kill each other over it. It's a small consolation, but I am still sad that they had to let things get this bad before they decided to all become friends. That too I am afraid might change with the wind.

biasion
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Post by biasion » Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:51 am

Oh yes, and as an example of this Italian "volatility" of politics, check out one of the Bologna bomber's bios (do you read Italian?)

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francesca_Mambro
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nessuno_Tocchi_Caino

She basically changed around from "extreme right terrorist" and founded a society known as "No one touch Cain" (as in "no revenge"). It is a humanist society that is pushing to abolish capital punishment. What a change, after murdering 80 people. Don't put it past us, I am not proud of this type of volatility!

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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri » Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:18 am

I don't buy gold, but I'm an armchair speculator. My guess is the gold will fall below $600 an ounce this year because inflation will remain low and hot money will start to flow back into equities.

Rick Ferri
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VennData
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Post by VennData » Sat Jan 17, 2009 7:06 pm

If there is a secular increase in Indian weddings look for gold to rise. If Indians get married below trend, look for the gold price to drop.

Gold bugs are angry when central banks sell gold. They're gleeful when central banks sell cash. But since central banks have lots and lots of bonds... central banks will eventually have to sell those bonds, buy cash, and that will force inflation lower. So no red-faced calls for a "bling standard" this decade when we revert to 2-3% inflation.

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