DonIce wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm
Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. [...]
All this presumes that the numbers being published are representative.
The fact is that the US is still suffering from a lack of testing. I believe that New York has relatively accurate reporting in place, but California still is reporting results for less than 30K tests (source: https://covidtracking.com/data/
). On the whole the US has performed under 900,000 tests according to the same site.
Given that we're still playing catch-up on testing, the shape of the curve so far is suspect in my opinion. The curve may be more representative of the increasing availability of tests vs. the infection rate.
I think it'll take time before testing is available enough to give a true idea of the infection patterns. Quick tests are starting to be announced and made available, but that's a recent development.
I don't believe the New York metropolitan area will be unique in the US in terms of the scale of the epidemic, and this would imply much bigger numbers coming for the US.