Market will be at all time high by year-end

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madbrain
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

hoops777 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:23 pm There is one way and one way only the markets are at an all time high. Some miracle drug or vaccine is created in the next 6 months that shocks all of the scientists and is allowed with vastly shortened clinical trials. Odds are at 50,000 to 1 against.
Even if the vaccine was available today, it would take a very long amount of time to get it to the entire population to get herd immunity.
We also need effective treatments to stop the hospitals from filling up and get patients discharged fast enough, today ! It's possible that one of the ongoing clinical trials will find something that helps. The odds may be higher than 50,000 to 1 against. But I think they are still low. Science just doesn't move that fast, in general. So, I think the health crisis will still be with us by the end of the year. And so will the financial crisis.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by klaus14 »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:20 pm Presumably, the market would have to believe that the net present value of all future corporate earnings will be higher on 12/31/2020 than it was on 2/19/2020.

I have serious doubts about that occurring. Shutting down a large portion of the nation's economy for so long inevitably reduces corporate earnings, which is why stocks have fallen so precipitously. These earnings will not recover quickly.
- maybe FY2021 earnings will be less than FY2020, but how about 2022?
- with near zero nominal rates, discount rate is so low, 1-2 year of delay doesn't matter.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by willthrill81 »

klaus14 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:31 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:20 pm Presumably, the market would have to believe that the net present value of all future corporate earnings will be higher on 12/31/2020 than it was on 2/19/2020.

I have serious doubts about that occurring. Shutting down a large portion of the nation's economy for so long inevitably reduces corporate earnings, which is why stocks have fallen so precipitously. These earnings will not recover quickly.
- maybe FY2021 earnings will be less than FY2020, but how about 2022?
- with near zero nominal rates, discount rate is so low, 1-2 year of delay doesn't matter.
By that logic, stocks should have zoomed when the Fed funds rate was dropped.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by dknightd »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
I hope you are right. I also hope that one correct prediction does not convince you that you are a genius.
Or one wrong prediction makes you think you are an idiot. :happy :D :) :( :o :shock: :oops: :? 8-) :x :P :twisted: :wink: :!: :?: :idea:
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine.

I am not certain SP500 will be back to previous levels this quickly. I think in another thread I predicted early 2022. I can't even remember now.....but certainly many months away. Recovering job losses will be important.

Treatment trials are underway in the US. France and India have already approved the drug "C" and "HC" to treat the virus. French clinical trials showed 78 out of 80 recover within 5 days. Novartis is donating 130 million doses of the drug.

We must see what this means in the next several weeks.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine.

I am not certain SP500 will be back to previous levels this quickly. I think in another thread I predicted early 2022. I can't even remember now.....but certainly many months away. Recovering job losses will be important.

Treatment trials are underway in the US. France and India have already approved the drug "C" and "HC" to treat the virus. French clinical trials showed 78 out of 80 recover within 5 days. Novartis is donating 130 million doses of the drug.

We must see what this means in the next several weeks.
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madbrain
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:05 pm The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine.
Indeed. But treatments also can take a long time to discover as well.
Treatment trials are underway in the US. France and India have already approved the drug "C" and "HC" to treat the virus.
One poster on the Coronavirus community thread is a doctor in NY and said these drugs didn't work on any of his patients.
viewtopic.php?p=5136949#p5136877
I think the jury is still out on these drugs. We should know soon enough.

I think it's premature to assume that a treatment has been found. It would be great news for humanity, and the markets.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by sperry8 »

madbrain wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:02 pm
sperry8 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:03 pm I just mean forward 1 yr returns were positive (assuming this was the bottom).
That is an extremely different statement from the message from the OP which you originally quoted in your response.
I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.
Yes, good catch. I mistook the data for a moment, then figured it out. Thus my differing responses.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

madbrain wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:36 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:05 pm The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine.
Indeed. But treatments also can take a long time to discover as well.
Treatment trials are underway in the US. France and India have already approved the drug "C" and "HC" to treat the virus.
One poster on the Coronavirus community thread is a doctor in NY and said these drugs didn't work on any of his patients.
viewtopic.php?p=5136949#p5136877
I think the jury is still out on these drugs. We should know soon enough.

I think it's premature to assume that a treatment has been found. It would be great news for humanity, and the markets.
I am aware of that thread.

Right now I can only go by official reporting, or with actual interviews with physicians. I don't know forum members personally to either accept or dismiss their claims.

I agree with the rest of your post. I think for those cured they will scream loudly that it is a cure. For those not cured, the search continues. And the rest of us in the peanut gallery will opine based on our own experiences, biases, and goals.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 pm Right now I can only go by official reporting, or with actual interviews with physicians. I don't know forum members personally to either accept or dismiss their claims.

I agree with the rest of your post. I think for those cured they will scream loudly that it is a cure. For those not cured, the search continues. And the rest of us in the peanut gallery will opine based on our own experiences, biases, and goals.
Agree with that. I'm hearing different things this morning - that these H and C seem to work as part of some combination with other drugs, but not by themselves. That would be great news if true. Seems the markets are not going down today. Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. It really seems premature to me to celebrate, though.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by CyclingDuo »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020 10/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
I fixed that date for you. :beer
Last edited by CyclingDuo on Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by DonIce »

Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. The lockdowns will have to stay in place for some time of course (its a long way from bending the curve downward to reducing new cases to single digits, when you can start to open things back up) but markets will bounce back once there is a more certain timeline for the light at the end of the tunnel. I predict S&P500 will be back above 3000 this summer.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by JD2775 »

DonIce wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. The lockdowns will have to stay in place for some time of course (its a long way from bending the curve downward to reducing new cases to single digits, when you can start to open things back up) but markets will bounce back once there is a more certain timeline for the light at the end of the tunnel. I predict S&P500 will be back above 3000 this summer.
I see what you are saying but I don't know how anyone can verify this to be true. There are such a shortage of tests being given around the country, how can we possibly know the curve is flattening? There could be hundreds of thousands of people walking around that have it, and we don't even know it yet. Or, maybe not. Impossible to tell.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by keyfort »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:06 pm
DonIce wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. The lockdowns will have to stay in place for some time of course (its a long way from bending the curve downward to reducing new cases to single digits, when you can start to open things back up) but markets will bounce back once there is a more certain timeline for the light at the end of the tunnel. I predict S&P500 will be back above 3000 this summer.
I see what you are saying but I don't know how anyone can verify this to be true. There are such a shortage of tests being given around the country, how can we possibly know the curve is flattening? There could be hundreds of thousands of people walking around that have it, and we don't even know it yet. Or, maybe not. Impossible to tell.
Also not sure how this helps the already multiple millions out of a job since two weeks ago. Or will all those jobs just suddenly reappear and hire everyone exactly back to how they were? Eventually yes, but I don't see things being fixed this year. Then again, I'm probably wrong.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by MotoTrojan »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:06 pm
DonIce wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. The lockdowns will have to stay in place for some time of course (its a long way from bending the curve downward to reducing new cases to single digits, when you can start to open things back up) but markets will bounce back once there is a more certain timeline for the light at the end of the tunnel. I predict S&P500 will be back above 3000 this summer.
I see what you are saying but I don't know how anyone can verify this to be true. There are such a shortage of tests being given around the country, how can we possibly know the curve is flattening? There could be hundreds of thousands of people walking around that have it, and we don't even know it yet. Or, maybe not. Impossible to tell.
That’s why deaths are more useful.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by DonIce »

JD2775 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:06 pm
DonIce wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. The lockdowns will have to stay in place for some time of course (its a long way from bending the curve downward to reducing new cases to single digits, when you can start to open things back up) but markets will bounce back once there is a more certain timeline for the light at the end of the tunnel. I predict S&P500 will be back above 3000 this summer.
I see what you are saying but I don't know how anyone can verify this to be true. There are such a shortage of tests being given around the country, how can we possibly know the curve is flattening? There could be hundreds of thousands of people walking around that have it, and we don't even know it yet. Or, maybe not. Impossible to tell.
Because you can see data on the numbers of people being tested, getting both positive and negative results. There are certainly a lot of people that have it that have not been tested. Likely larger than the number that has. But the number of people being tested is statistically significant enough to understand the trend.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by DonIce »

keyfort wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:15 pm Also not sure how this helps the already multiple millions out of a job since two weeks ago. Or will all those jobs just suddenly reappear and hire everyone exactly back to how they were? Eventually yes, but I don't see things being fixed this year. Then again, I'm probably wrong.
Yes, as soon as the virus is no longer a threat, people will want to go to bars and restaurants (and all the other businesses that have been impacted) again. Individual businesses will have failed in the meantime but the demand will be there and supply will come back quickly to match it.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by ulrichw »

DonIce wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. [...]
All this presumes that the numbers being published are representative.

The fact is that the US is still suffering from a lack of testing. I believe that New York has relatively accurate reporting in place, but California still is reporting results for less than 30K tests (source: https://covidtracking.com/data/). On the whole the US has performed under 900,000 tests according to the same site.

Given that we're still playing catch-up on testing, the shape of the curve so far is suspect in my opinion. The curve may be more representative of the increasing availability of tests vs. the infection rate.

I think it'll take time before testing is available enough to give a true idea of the infection patterns. Quick tests are starting to be announced and made available, but that's a recent development.

I don't believe the New York metropolitan area will be unique in the US in terms of the scale of the epidemic, and this would imply much bigger numbers coming for the US.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

madbrain wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:42 pm
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 pm Right now I can only go by official reporting, or with actual interviews with physicians. I don't know forum members personally to either accept or dismiss their claims.

I agree with the rest of your post. I think for those cured they will scream loudly that it is a cure. For those not cured, the search continues. And the rest of us in the peanut gallery will opine based on our own experiences, biases, and goals.
Agree with that. I'm hearing different things this morning - that these H and C seem to work as part of some combination with other drugs, but not by themselves. That would be great news if true. Seems the markets are not going down today. Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. It really seems premature to me to celebrate, though.

We are celebrating. It is our 18th wedding anniversary this week. We are going all out with home cooked food and hikes. And that we haven't driven ourselves mad at all.

The market could go up or down. Bummer it doesn't listen to me. We are ready to life hack this mess. I realized that we could do just fine with 10% of things we own. I might never buy clothes the rest of my life. :)
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by mptfan »

OnTrack wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:22 pm Colorado has issued a statewide stay at home order that orders people to stay at home unless they are engaged in certain necessary activities. Under the order, "critical retail" is allowed to stay open. Critical retail includes liquor and cannabis stores as well as firearms stores.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/public-hea ... -explained
Here is a summary of the exceptions...

Colorado is on a statewide Stay-at-Home order.
You should stay home as much as possible except for critical activities including:

Obtaining food and other household necessities including medicine
Going to and from work if you are a critical employee (See list of critical businesses below)
Seeking medical care
Caring for dependents or pets
Caring for a vulnerable person in another location
Participating in outdoor recreation at a legally-mandated safe distance of six feet or more from other parties
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by watchnerd »

mptfan wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:26 pm
OnTrack wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:22 pm Colorado has issued a statewide stay at home order that orders people to stay at home unless they are engaged in certain necessary activities. Under the order, "critical retail" is allowed to stay open. Critical retail includes liquor and cannabis stores as well as firearms stores.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/public-hea ... -explained
Here is a summary of the exceptions...

Colorado is on a statewide Stay-at-Home order.
You should stay home as much as possible except for critical activities including:

Obtaining food and other household necessities including medicine
Going to and from work if you are a critical employee (See list of critical businesses below)
Seeking medical care
Caring for dependents or pets
Caring for a vulnerable person in another location
Participating in outdoor recreation at a legally-mandated safe distance of six feet or more from other parties
Similar to WA, although I don't know if cannabis and firearms were designated as critical.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by aristotelian »

DonIce wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are starting to pay off visibly. A day or two more and it will be clear to all that the battle is being won. The lockdowns will have to stay in place for some time of course (its a long way from bending the curve downward to reducing new cases to single digits, when you can start to open things back up) but markets will bounce back once there is a more certain timeline for the light at the end of the tunnel. I predict S&P500 will be back above 3000 this summer.
Yes. It is also looking good that the death rates in the US aren't in the same territory as Italy. Fauci's estimate of 100-200K sounds scary (and it is) but that makes it several times worse than the flu (maybe even 10X worse) but not multiple orders of magnitude worse. Not sure about all time high by year end, but I see some reason to believe this is going to be a temporary thing and not the next Depression.

For what it's worth, I just bought a ticket to Hawaii at the end of July.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by InvestorNewb »

We aren't that far away. My genius will soon be revealed. :D
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by TechGuy365 »

You called it and 6 months ahead! Hope it holds!!!
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

I had been a skeptic, but the fact is, the earnings and profit margins of the S&P500 seem to have not only held up, but look to be much higher by next year. It's not just the Fed...
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by 1789 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:36 am We aren't that far away. My genius will soon be revealed. :D
I think you are doing great. Did you attend 2020 BH contest? Maybe you will win that one too :sharebeer
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Candor »

Who would have guessed your prediction may be on the conservative side. Not me. The question is did you put your money where your thread title is?
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by aristotelian »

I am not impressed. If you had said 3200 by June that would be something.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by index245 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:36 am We aren't that far away. My genius will soon be revealed. :D
All that is standing between you and glory is a presidential election! And avoiding a second shutdown!
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Silverado »

index245 wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:40 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:36 am We aren't that far away. My genius will soon be revealed. :D
All that is standing between you and glory is a presidential election! And avoiding a second shutdown!
Careful, the wording is important. It can be 50% down at end of the year. But newb used 'by' not 'at'. Just takes a single day at all time high for the glory to be Newb's. (Within the scope of this thread only of course)
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by index245 »

Silverado wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:47 pm
index245 wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:40 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:36 am We aren't that far away. My genius will soon be revealed. :D
All that is standing between you and glory is a presidential election! And avoiding a second shutdown!
Careful, the wording is important. It can be 50% down at end of the year. But newb used 'by' not 'at'. Just takes a single day at all time high for the glory to be Newb's. (Within the scope of this thread only of course)
Ah, got it.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Livelife2fullest »

After the recent drop, who would have thought we’d be looking at the possibility of a market high sometime next week, let alone by the end of the year. Thanks to fed actions, I guess.

There had seemed to be big money still on the sidelines as well, unless it’s been Buffett and the other billionaire investors buying up the equities the past few weeks, who were reported to be cash heavy not long ago.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by InvestorNewb »

I can officially resurrect this thread based on the US stock market futures. My prediction was correct. :beer
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by stormcrow »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:34 am I can officially resurrect this thread based on the US stock market futures. My prediction was correct. :beer
My portfolio salutes your optimism :sharebeer

Here's to more!
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by ReformedSpender »

To be fair, you stated ON 12/31/2020 you would revisit this thread. A lot could happen in the next 4 months and change

:beer
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by cusetownusa »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:46 am To be fair, you stated ON 12/31/2020 you would revisit this thread. A lot could happen in the next 4 months and change

:beer
He said the market it will reach a new all time high BY 12/31/2020...didn't say anything about it staying at an all-time high until 12/31/2020. And that he would revisit this thread on 12/31/2020 to post about it the genius he is. lol

He seems to have the first part correct, now he just needs to revisit this thread on 12/31/20 and he will have the second prediction correct as well.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by FIREchief »

What a bunch of freakin' nit-pickers! :P

This is a really cool thread. I totally missed this until today. InvestorNewb may not be the smartest guy/girl in the room, but he/she is definitely smarter than most of us (in a certain type of "smart"). While I've never had a problem staying the course, it hasn't ever been close to the unbridled optimism shared in the OP. I did tell some nervous folks in March that "this is all just noise." It's nice to be right! :sharebeer
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Hyperchicken
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Hyperchicken »

Page 1 is fun to re-read, with all its pessimism and gloom-and-doom attitude.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Trader Joe »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:34 am I can officially resurrect this thread based on the US stock market futures. My prediction was correct. :beer
Yes, looking good.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by dogagility »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:34 am I can officially resurrect this thread based on the US stock market futures. My prediction was correct. :beer
Congrats! :beer

What is your AUM fee? :twisted:
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FIREchief
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by FIREchief »

dogagility wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:33 am
InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:34 am I can officially resurrect this thread based on the US stock market futures. My prediction was correct. :beer
Congrats! :beer

What is your AUM fee? :twisted:
LOL. Buy and hold, stay the course isn't really management; so how could there be a management fee? Pay InvestorNewb to do nothing? :P

Yeah, I get it, it would be money better spent than the :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag many spend on expert advisors. :twisted: We may be onto something here. FIREchief's Boglehead Advisor service. "Pay me a small fee and I guarantee that I'll do nothing with your money despite what the market does." 8-)
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by willthrill81 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:34 am I can officially resurrect this thread based on the US stock market futures. My prediction was correct. :beer
Nice job! Unlike many on the forum would no doubt say, I don't believe that you were just lucky.

Of course, it's difficult to get such predictions consistently right. While I acted on what I believed was strong evidence in favor of it when all of this started, I quickly returned to my rules-based strategy, and I'm very glad that I did.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by abuss368 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
Now that was a good post! You should have your own hedge fund with billions!
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by abuss368 »

Did you ever check Taylor's annual Bogleheads contest?
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by ReformedSpender »

cusetownusa wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:48 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:46 am To be fair, you stated ON 12/31/2020 you would revisit this thread. A lot could happen in the next 4 months and change

:beer
He said the market it will reach a new all time high BY 12/31/2020...didn't say anything about it staying at an all-time high until 12/31/2020. And that he would revisit this thread on 12/31/2020 to post about it the genius he is. lol

He seems to have the first part correct, now he just needs to revisit this thread on 12/31/20 and he will have the second prediction correct as well.
We're making the same statement...
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Sheepdog »

I will have my usual Manhattan on 12/31 when we celebrate our 60th wedding anniversary. I hope to be at my all time high then and I won't be thinking about the Market.
Woof
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by aristotelian »

CyclingDuo wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:50 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020 10/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
I fixed that date for you. :beer
You were both wrong! Amazing, the market recovery exceeded even the most bullish predictions in March.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by sean.mcgrath »

Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:22 am Page 1 is fun to re-read, with all its pessimism and gloom-and-doom attitude.
I completely missed this thread, and am enjoying catching up on the pessimism. Although my favorite quote is optimistic:
birdog wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:55 pm
madbrain wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:49 pm The economy hasn't fully stopped yet, so it is premature to talk about it restarting. The crisis could easily last beyond the end of this year.
No it won’t. It’s not that hard to look at the trajectory of preceding countries and see that this is very short term. No crystal ball needed.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by cusetownusa »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:08 pm
cusetownusa wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:48 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:46 am To be fair, you stated ON 12/31/2020 you would revisit this thread. A lot could happen in the next 4 months and change

:beer
He said the market it will reach a new all time high BY 12/31/2020...didn't say anything about it staying at an all-time high until 12/31/2020. And that he would revisit this thread on 12/31/2020 to post about it the genius he is. lol

He seems to have the first part correct, now he just needs to revisit this thread on 12/31/20 and he will have the second prediction correct as well.
We're making the same statement...
:oops:
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by CyclingDuo »

aristotelian wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:17 pm
CyclingDuo wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:50 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020 10/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
I fixed that date for you. :beer
You were both wrong! Amazing, the market recovery exceeded even the most bullish predictions in March.
Yes, it has been rather amazing. So has the hate for this move been rather interesting. I'm not sure what level of drawdown or correction would appease all of the haters, but various levels of uncertainty are a necessary element of investing over the long haul. There certainly is no shortage of uncertainty at the moment. We all still have many miles over the years to go in spite of the current snapshot and snapback for the portion of the market that has recovered and gone on to new highs.

:sharebeer

CyclingDuo
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel
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