Market will be at all time high by year-end

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InvestorNewb
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Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by InvestorNewb »

I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
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bligh
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by bligh »

I think you are wrong, but I sure hope you're right.
TropikThunder
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by TropikThunder »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
Username checks out. :P
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
genius or lucky? Does one right call make one a genius? How many right calls would it take to be an actual genius?
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
Silverado
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Silverado »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:39 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
genius or lucky? Does one right call make one a genius? How many right calls would it take to be an actual genius?
Just one time right, you just have to repeat it enough times, just repeat it enough times.
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nedsaid
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by nedsaid »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
Could be, I certainly wouldn't rule it out. Too many unknowns out there. As for me, my record as a market forecaster is pretty spotty.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Sandtrap
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Sandtrap »

Not back to 2/20/2020 levels.
But will make substantial gains leading up to Nov 2020. Whether those will be lasting is unknown.

I have foreseen........

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bo105954027
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by bo105954027 »

I’m gonna open 10 threads stating SP500 will reach 4000 by year of 2021, 2022... to 2030, respectively, and refresh the right thread when time comes, as well claim I’m a freaking genius.
Time in market beats timing the market.
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Cubicle
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Cubicle »

No body would be upset with this. I predicted 2022 on another forum. But I'll tell you thanks if this happens!
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FIREchief
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by FIREchief »

I hope you're way wrong, because my January 2021 Roth conversions will be 100% equities. Can you give me another year or two?? :P
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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FIREchief
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by FIREchief »

^^^^^ Except for this guy
Cubicle wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 pm No body would be upset with this.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Stinky
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Stinky »

Wouldn’t that be a sweet result! :moneybag
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madbrain
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

Hey, I predicted S&P 36,000 in this year's Bogleheads contest.
DonIce
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by DonIce »

I predict S&P500 @ 10,000 by 2035.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by asset_chaos »

Glendower: I can call the spirits from the vasty deep.

Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come, when you do call for them?
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birdog
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by birdog »

Have you already gone through your three month supply of alcohol in week two of the stay at home order?
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TechGuy365
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by TechGuy365 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
I have the same level of optimism as you OP! Keep our fingers crossed! :D
3feetpete
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by 3feetpete »

I like your optimism
dickyboy
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by dickyboy »

Wish in one hand and poop in the other and see which one fills up !!!
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Seasonal »

asset_chaos wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:16 am Glendower: I can call the spirits from the vasty deep.

Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come, when you do call for them?
That's one of my favorite quotes.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by willthrill81 »

Presumably, the market would have to believe that the net present value of all future corporate earnings will be higher on 12/31/2020 than it was on 2/19/2020.

I have serious doubts about that occurring. Shutting down a large portion of the nation's economy for so long inevitably reduces corporate earnings, which is why stocks have fallen so precipitously. These earnings will not recover quickly.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by cork »

birdog wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:02 am Have you already gone through your three month supply of alcohol in week two of the stay at home order?
HaHa! If so, if they haven't already, there is talk of closing the liquor stores. :sharebeer
JD2775
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by JD2775 »

I hope the economy recovers and people get back to work and are healthy again, but for me personally I wouldn't mind the market staying right where it is...for another year. DCA in every cpl weeks at lower prices for a longer time would be nice. Then 1/1/2022 we reach all time highs :)
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by alex_686 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.
How confident are you? And could you be a little more exact? All good predictions have a confidence range.

On a more serious note, I don't think it will happen - but the chance is not zero. We can look at Black Monday back in 1987 for a sharp V recover in the stock market.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

alex_686 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:24 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.
How confident are you? And could you be a little more exact? All good predictions have a confidence range.

On a more serious note, I don't think it will happen - but the chance is not zero. We can look at Black Monday back in 1987 for a sharp V recover in the stock market.
For sure possible if they find a life-saving drug or antibody treatment soon. Can't rule that out -- hope so!
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by rbaldini »

Concrete predictions are a wonderful thing. There's no vagueness to hide behind. We'll see!

Idea: Let's open a thread that tracks all concrete market predictions made by Bogleheads, and records the result? A single place to record how good (bad) we are at market timing.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by meowcat »

I tend to agree. I could be wrong, also, but I think by December, 2020, this country will have witnessed the sharpest decline, as well as the fastest recovery in US history.
More people should learn to tell their dollars where to go instead of asking them where they went. | -Roger Babson
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Thesaints »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
Maybe. Or maybe not. In the latter case your post will be forgotten and you'll get the chance of making another baseless forecast.
As I'm concerned, a third part candidate will be elected President in 2064.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by bdpb »

Fail to see how that would make you a genius.

Or did you come to that conclusion by throwing darts?
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Gardener »

meowcat wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:41 pm I tend to agree. I could be wrong, also, but I think by December, 2020, this country will have witnessed the sharpest decline, as well as the fastest recovery in US history.
I agree. I hope we are right,
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by aqan »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
The current administration is pretty aggressive on pumping the market before the upcoming election so.. from your mouth to god’s ears:)
Valueinvestor2
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Valueinvestor2 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
I laughed out loud.
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tooluser
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by tooluser »

S&P500 at 3691.2, according to my Bogleheads Contest 2020 entry.
Predictable, and predicted. :wink:
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by sschullo »

aqan wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:02 pm
InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
The current administration is pretty aggressive on pumping the market before the upcoming election so.. from your mouth to god’s ears:)
Yep, and the politicians want to get reelected! The markets better be at or near all-time highs.
"We have seen much more money made and kept by “ordinary people” who were temperamentally well suited for the investment process than by those who lacked this quality." Ben Graham
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Candor »

You've come a long way in 8 years. :beer
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by JBTX »

Ive mostly stayed the course but based on OPS post I'm going 100% stock on Monday. Better yet, I think I'll cash out refinance and put it all in the hedgefundies ultra leverage - Can't lose risk parity fund.

Seriously I don't think it is likely, but if it turns out we can manage the virus and prevent a major fall recurrence, and with the trillions of stimulus liquidity slushing around the system, it isn't an outlandish prediction.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by slick_dealer_05 »

and I bet International will finally do better this year...lol
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by knibloe »

If the markets thinks the next 4 years could look like the last 3 years prior to the downturn it could happen.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by OnTrack »

cork wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:21 pm
birdog wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:02 am Have you already gone through your three month supply of alcohol in week two of the stay at home order?
HaHa! If so, if they haven't already, there is talk of closing the liquor stores. :sharebeer
Colorado has issued a statewide stay at home order that orders people to stay at home unless they are engaged in certain necessary activities. Under the order, "critical retail" is allowed to stay open. Critical retail includes liquor and cannabis stores as well as firearms stores.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/public-hea ... -explained
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Cycle »

I've been baking a tray of cookies or brownies every other day. I think my scale will be at an all time high, but the market will certainly still be in uncertainty land.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by smectym »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
Investor, you’re a genius. But it doesn’t take one to know that the markets are going to respond very positively to the restarting of the US economy. Where that means we’ll end up on New Year’s Eve I’m not sure, but yeah: it’s going to be higher
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by DonIce »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:20 pm Presumably, the market would have to believe that the net present value of all future corporate earnings will be higher on 12/31/2020 than it was on 2/19/2020.
When the risk free rate is ~0%, the net present value of all future corporate earnings is infinite. This isn't how companies are being valued any more.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Seasonal »

DonIce wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:39 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:20 pm Presumably, the market would have to believe that the net present value of all future corporate earnings will be higher on 12/31/2020 than it was on 2/19/2020.
When the risk free rate is ~0%, the net present value of all future corporate earnings is infinite. This isn't how companies are being valued any more.
Net present value of corporate earnings is not computed using the risk free rate, at least not under the standard model. It is traditionally calculated using a discount rate reflecting the risk associated with the future earnings or the relevant cost of capital, which is much higher than the risk free rate.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

smectym wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:08 am Investor, you’re a genius. But it doesn’t take one to know that the markets are going to respond very positively to the restarting of the US economy. Where that means we’ll end up on New Year’s Eve I’m not sure, but yeah: it’s going to be higher
The economy hasn't fully stopped yet, so it is premature to talk about it restarting. The crisis could easily last beyond the end of this year.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by birdog »

madbrain wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:49 pm The economy hasn't fully stopped yet, so it is premature to talk about it restarting. The crisis could easily last beyond the end of this year.
No it won’t. It’s not that hard to look at the trajectory of preceding countries and see that this is very short term. No crystal ball needed.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

InvestorNewb wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020.

This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am.
:D

Finally a different kind of thread :beer

I'm not sure your prediction will pan out. But if the world is ending, I'd rather go out hopeful and shooting for the moon than scared of my own shadow and in misery the rest of my life.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by F150HD »

JD2775 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:22 pm I hope the economy recovers and people get back to work and are healthy again, but for me personally I wouldn't mind the market staying right where it is...for another year. DCA in every cpl weeks at lower prices for a longer time would be nice. Then 1/1/2022 we reach all time highs :)
so you're saying you want millions of people to remain unemployed.

Image
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

birdog wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:55 pm No it won’t. It’s not that hard to look at the trajectory of preceding countries and see that this is very short term. No crystal ball needed.
Which preceding countries are you referring to ? Only a few of them seem to have gotten it under control : China, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan. The USA is on a very different trajectory. This does not bode well for US markets. Perhaps international will recover quicker.
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Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Post by madbrain »

F150HD wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:47 pm so you're saying you want millions of people to remain unemployed.
Better that than millions of people dead. Once the COVID-19 crisis is over, unemployment will go back down, and the markets will recover.
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