New Bull Market!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Topic Author
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 528
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

New Bull Market!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm

This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.

livesoft
Posts: 70328
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by livesoft » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:16 pm

Technically correct.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

huskerfan1414
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:51 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by huskerfan1414 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm

This is insane.

Either the virus stuff is overblown and the market somehow knows it, and this is going to be a V.

or the market is walking up a mountain blind and is going to step off the ledge and go tumbling.

At this point I don't think there's a "medium" or "in between". I don't see how anyone can forecast anything other than great news or terrible news at this point.

But I know nothing! This has to be unprecedented.

alfaspider
Posts: 2469
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by alfaspider » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:22 pm

If I were betting on outcomes, I'd say this is a bear rally not the start of a bull (notwithstanding the technical bull). Multiple days in a row of several percent market moves is not the sign of a healthy market. But nobody knows nothing. Even less so given that this market is being driven by factors that have nothing to do with the market itself.

AK_Kiter
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:12 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by AK_Kiter » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:23 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
That is hilarious! And I am glad to have stayed the course, in fact I hit a new rebalancing band on Monday.

ScubaHogg
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by ScubaHogg » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm

huskerfan1414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm
This is insane.

Either the virus stuff is overblown and the market somehow knows it, and this is going to be a V.

or the market is walking up a mountain blind and is going to step off the ledge and go tumbling.
Or maybe it's a small hill and a plateau...or perhaps a hill, followed by a crater in the ground with a sideways river, followed by a vertical cliff, followed by a....

:D

Just playing, fun to see how many possible shape descriptions I could come up with in the "hill/mountain/topography category"
“There is no problem so bad you can’t make it worse.” - Chris Hatfield, Astronaut mantra

MotoTrojan
Posts: 9281
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm

I have never liked the definition of a 20% rise from a low. Didn't we have several rallies over 20% during the GFC? Nobody talks about those as bull markets; does it get nullified if a new low is achieved?

I much prefer a bull market being called when a new all-time high is achieved, with the bull starting official at the low, much the same way a recession is not technically called until it has actually been completed.

rudeboy
Posts: 225
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:21 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by rudeboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 pm

Dead bull bounce?
Last edited by rudeboy on Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.

vipertom1970
Posts: 638
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:06 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 pm

No fun but I am glad to witness all these new record lows and record highs in such a short time frame.

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 5154
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by JoeRetire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm

Baby bull. Little Bitty Bull. Bubble Bull.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 643
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:36 pm

Maybe +20% and -20% weeks are the new bear/bull cycle?

wkimdds
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:46 am

Bull Trap? Or are we recovering already

Post by wkimdds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:40 pm

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

Well that was anti-climactic...



It could be QE doing its magic...

Or a simple bull trap...

I just dont understand. Im out of job. All my friends as well. Coronavirus just got started. I guess this is the reason to stay the course

JLJL
Posts: 392
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:10 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by JLJL » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:42 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:16 pm
Technically correct.
Ahh... now I get it. Back for 10 days now and we are a bull again. Please don't leave again! Or let us know when you plan to...

Itster
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:50 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Itster » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:48 pm

Volatility index is still pretty high.

Beach
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:48 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Beach » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm

Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 5566
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm

JoeRetire wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Baby bull. Little Bitty Bull. Bubble Bull.
That's my guess.

Otherwise known as:

Bear Bait
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

frugaltigris
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by frugaltigris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm

It is an ostrich market with heads (if any) well inside the sand.

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 643
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm

Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.

Jim180
Posts: 408
Joined: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:47 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Jim180 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:54 pm

I'd sure like to know what data market traders are looking at that shows the virus is under control.

surfstar
Posts: 2069
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by surfstar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:55 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:36 pm
Maybe +20% and -20% weeks are the new bear/bull cycle?
I'm going to have to contribute to a cash fund in my 457 and then time the exchange into equities! The random every two-weeks thing won't cut it anymore! ;)

anon3838
Posts: 110
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 11:54 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by anon3838 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:58 pm

I will believe it when I can buy toilet paper without having to stand in a line of 300+ people waiting for a store to open.

hoops777
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm

I wonder how the market will be reacting in a couple of weeks when it is clear how the powers to be did not react on time and the number of cases is overwhelming the system.Not trying to be pessimistic but the math does not look good.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

Beach
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:48 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Beach » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
I guess so, this just seems like the evidence should be crystal clear and in real time. Life returning to normal, people being able to go out and spend money. Hourly workers back on the job. Toilet paper on the shelves....

User avatar
Topic Author
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 528
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.

cherijoh
Posts: 6406
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:49 pm
Location: Charlotte NC

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by cherijoh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:04 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
I wonder how much of this is Boeing? It closed at $95.01 on March 16 and closed today at $180.55. That is a 90% increase in 10 days! :shock:

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 643
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:04 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Not only the bottom but probably missed a 20-30% recovery.

I wonder what the news were back in December 2009 when the markets were up +65% from the bottom.

rudeboy
Posts: 225
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:21 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by rudeboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Exactly. If it were so easy as to sit tight and wait for the good news, everyone would be a Warren Buffet.

Chuck107
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:47 pm

Re: Bull Trap? Or are we recovering already

Post by Chuck107 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:40 pm
Well that was anti-climactic...



It could be QE doing its magic...

Or a simple bull trap...

I just dont understand. Im out of job. All my friends as well. Coronavirus just got started. I guess this is the reason to stay the course
Could be, might be, Nobody knows nothing, but your last guess is a good one. :beer

User avatar
FelixTheCat
Posts: 1744
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2011 12:39 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by FelixTheCat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:06 pm

I wish it would stop. I plan to buy more VTSAX in the beginning of April. :D
Felix is a wonderful, wonderful cat.

mac808
Posts: 520
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:45 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by mac808 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm

I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]."

It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time.

There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, housing, and financial asset prices generally. That will be where the wind is sown for future generations. But the Fed can, and may, absolutely guarantee that the S&P 500 remains above a certain level come high or hell water, or that highly-leveraged airlines don't go bankrupt, or that financial institutions that make bad bets remain solvent. As a result there's little point in trying to analyze fundamentals during a macro crisis like this.

I'm readjusting my AA and trading strategies based on this fairly obvious realization that I'm sure many people have had before me.

alfaspider
Posts: 2469
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by alfaspider » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:11 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Bottoms tend to happen right when the bad news stops hitting, but before the good. Right now, it's not clear how much bad news is yet to come. Will NYC run out hospital beds or will things level off before? Will warming weather slow the spread or will it go full steam ahead? Is NYC our Wuhan, or are other cities next? We just don't know the answers.

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 61129
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm

I merged wkimdds's thread into a similar discussion.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 655
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm

Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market declared?
Last edited by minimalistmarc on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

atdharris
Posts: 297
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by atdharris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:14 pm

I can't imagine this is the end of the sell-off, but what do I know. the worst is yet to come and there is no telling when life returns to normal.

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 5566
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market top declared?
That's what I thought....
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

hoops777
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm

The virus is going to cause all sorts of unheard numbers, including unemployment. To think everything with the market will now be unaffected is crazy to me.
I do not think people really are understanding how bad this could get. There are also consequences to printing money.

I hope I am wrong but after hearing the new talk about widely going back to normal at Easter, I am truly in a state of disbelief those words were spoken.

We will get through it in time, but it will NOT be happening anytime soon. Just look at the reality and forget the wishful thinking.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

hoops777
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:23 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by hoops777 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:21 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
In other news: USA is now #1 in COVID-19 cases.
US also number one with many state leaders not taking it seriously enough along with a name I will not mention. That combination does not bode well as the numbers keep rising. I am truly dumbfounded by some of the interviews I have seen from different officials.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

atdharris
Posts: 297
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by atdharris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market top declared?
That's what I thought. The media seems to think a 20% rally after a 35% drop means a new bull market. Not what I thought..

User avatar
bligh
Posts: 1250
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by bligh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
In other news: USA is now #1 in COVID-19 cases.
I was hoping the US would lead the world in this time of crisis.... not like this though. :oops:

User avatar
windaar
Posts: 317
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:31 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by windaar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

anon3838 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:58 pm
I will believe it when I can buy toilet paper without having to stand in a line of 300+ people waiting for a store to open.
Today at Publix I saw full shelves of TP for the first time in weeks. Limit one 4-pack per person, but available at last.
Nobody knows nothing.

Mr.BB
Posts: 1159
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Mr.BB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm

Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

Mickstick
Posts: 47
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:16 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Mickstick » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:31 pm

Image

We are returning to "normal" :twisted:
Last edited by Mickstick on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design" - F.A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit

User avatar
Harry Livermore
Posts: 230
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:32 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Harry Livermore » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 pm

Well, if that's the end of it, then shucks.
I'm still not able to go to work and earn money, so that's not great. But I remain happy with our AA and changed nothing (I did shuffle some bond funds in my pension plan)
Keep in mind the rally that happened right after the 1929 crash. I was looking for a chart to post, but could not seem to find one that did not have a copyright on it. Anyway, we might rally here for a bit and then see more spectacular losses.
Cheers

ETA: I see Mickstick chimed in while I was writing. His chart is another variation of the theme.
ETA: Here's an article from the GFC, looking back at the rallies withing the Great Depression:
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-m ... depression
Last edited by Harry Livermore on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.

vencat
Posts: 253
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:30 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vencat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:37 pm

I still need a couple of 8 digit absolute gains to catch up with the old bull before I get tossed in the air by the new one!!

MishkaWorries
Posts: 88
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by MishkaWorries » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:37 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 pm
Dead bull bounce?
Nice.
We plan. G-d laughs.

vencat
Posts: 253
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:30 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vencat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm

Mickstick wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:31 pm
Image

We are returning to "normal" :twisted:
Is that a bulltrap or bull@rap?!

jajlrajrf
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by jajlrajrf » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm

I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 655
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
Nope, GDP numbers will be terrible but predictable and most likely priced in.

Stop thinking short term. You can’t predict the market, nobody can

wkimdds
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:46 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by wkimdds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:48 pm

jajlrajrf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.

THX THAT HELPS ALOT :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Thesaints
Posts: 3453
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:25 am

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Thesaints » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:50 pm

huskerfan1414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm
This is insane.

Either the virus stuff is overblown and the market somehow knows it, and this is going to be a V.

or the market is walking up a mountain blind and is going to step off the ledge and go tumbling.

At this point I don't think there's a "medium" or "in between". I don't see how anyone can forecast anything other than great news or terrible news at this point.

But I know nothing! This has to be unprecedented.
Nobody can tell the real size of the coronavirus financial impact. Therefore market prices are oscillating rather randomly. Final result can be near the extremes, or anything in between.

Post Reply