Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

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JSparks
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Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by JSparks » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:33 pm

Looking back to last year there were plenty of people, not necessary here on this forum, who felt that there were several factors indicating a potential pull-back this year... or God-forbid, a recession.

Now that we've had a COVID pull-back - or at least part of it - have any of the previous recession indicators been reset or removed?

The only two factors that I recall reading much about were the flat/inverted yield curve and the higher-than-ordinary P/E's.

Elysium
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by Elysium » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm

Simple answer is things have changed. We are getting the recession, and a response from the Government / Fed to fight against it. No point worrying about what other hypothetical situations people were worried about. Where we go from here is unchartered territory just like any other recession.

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JSparks
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by JSparks » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:34 pm

Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm
Simple answer is things have changed. We are getting the recession, and a response from the Government / Fed to fight against it. No point worrying about what other hypothetical situations people were worried about. Where we go from here is unchartered territory just like any other recession.
I don't have any reasons to worry. Surprised there weren't more responses to the question. Guess it was a dumb one!

Elysium
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by Elysium » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:38 pm

JSparks wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:34 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm
Simple answer is things have changed. We are getting the recession, and a response from the Government / Fed to fight against it. No point worrying about what other hypothetical situations people were worried about. Where we go from here is unchartered territory just like any other recession.
I don't have any reasons to worry. Surprised there weren't more responses to the question. Guess it was a dumb one!
There are no dumb questions on this forum, only the ones that you don't ask. Well, that and the market timing questions :twisted:

Possible reasons for not getting more responses, people are busy panicking about their portfolio values, considering selling after a loss, rationalizing their decisions, and the rest are responding to such questions and trying to calm down those. Few others are busy in misery thread about doom & gloom, predictions of more troubles to come, and they feed on each other. No one has time to think about those other recessions we may have had if no Coronavirus came.

veggivet
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by veggivet » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:11 pm

The only stupid question is the one that remains unasked...
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

TravelGeek
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:14 pm

Perhaps people just get tired of Corona threads. A more descriptive thread title might attract more interest and answers.

Regarding our question.... I have no idea. I suspect everything is so “messed up” that everything is changed.

settlement12
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by settlement12 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:35 pm

Disclaimer, my post is speculation and not based on any economic knowledge

The coronavirus hit to the stock market could apply a 'cooling off' or a 'reset' of sorts to the stock market. It has moved us from euphoria to profit taking to panic, which is the final stage of a boom, and the first stage of a contraction.

make_a_better_world
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by make_a_better_world » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:09 pm

Predicting the future is always unreliable but... I do not think there is any way this is going to be a quick V-shaped recovery. Several companies have already started layoffs of full time positions. I do not see how a stimulus package, which is really just emergency relief, is going to recover all that, especially since this pandemic is not over and it is unclear when the country can go back to work. Almost all commerce has been shut down. My personal prediction is that it will takes years to recover even if a miracle is found for COVID-19.

mega317
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by mega317 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:20 am

JSparks wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:33 pm
Looking back to last year there were plenty of people, not necessary here on this forum, who felt that there were several factors indicating a potential pull-back this year... or God-forbid, a recession.
People have been saying it since well before last year. I disagree with the premise of your question.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212

vested1
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by vested1 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:04 am

Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm
Simple answer is things have changed. We are getting the recession, and a response from the Government / Fed to fight against it. No point worrying about what other hypothetical situations people were worried about. Where we go from here is unchartered territory just like any other recession.
But it's not. The underlying economy is strong...so far. 3.28 jobless claims this week being the tip of that particular iceberg, deserted malls and freeways, air fleets sitting idle, overburdened emergency rooms.

We will recover, but we need to deal with the reality of the pandemic aggressively first.

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Watty
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by Watty » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:17 am

JSparks wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:34 pm
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm
Simple answer is things have changed. We are getting the recession, and a response from the Government / Fed to fight against it. No point worrying about what other hypothetical situations people were worried about. Where we go from here is unchartered territory just like any other recession.
I don't have any reasons to worry. Surprised there weren't more responses to the question. Guess it was a dumb one!
I think the lack of responses was just because no one knows what will happen. We could end up in a depression or all the spending could over stimulate the economy.

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Cyclesafe
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by Cyclesafe » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:06 am

Hope for the best. Plan for the worst. IMHO.... Well, my opinion just doesn't matter. Stay home and wash your hands.
"Plans are useless; planning is indispensable.” (Dwight Eisenhower) | "Man plans, God laughs" (Yiddish proverb)

Elysium
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by Elysium » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:33 am

vested1 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:04 am
Elysium wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm
Simple answer is things have changed. We are getting the recession, and a response from the Government / Fed to fight against it. No point worrying about what other hypothetical situations people were worried about. Where we go from here is unchartered territory just like any other recession.
But it's not. The underlying economy is strong...so far. 3.28 jobless claims this week being the tip of that particular iceberg, deserted malls and freeways, air fleets sitting idle, overburdened emergency rooms.

We will recover, but we need to deal with the reality of the pandemic aggressively first.
All of that is transitory. A deliberate policy by the decision makers to stop the spread. Once the restrictions are lifted demand will come back for everything almost instantly. We need to toughen up a little bit more as a nation. Running to load up on Toilet paper shows where we are as a nation in terms of preparedness to handle a crisis, where as countries like China and South Korea are able to recover faster because they are willing to put up with a crisis and try out different methods.

mega317
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by mega317 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:32 pm

Elysium wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:33 am
Running to load up on Toilet paper shows where we are as a nation in terms of preparedness to handle a crisis
Do you mean to criticize Americans for not having enough toilet paper in the closet in good times?
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212

MathWizard
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Re: Coronavirus Question of the Day (possibly a dumb one)

Post by MathWizard » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:37 pm

I think that it is too early to tell.

The effects of on the economy are related to the length of the health emergency.

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