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Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:23 am
by guyinlaw
Weekly unemployment claims will be released Thursday. There has been request to the states to delay the release of unemployment data..
Goldman Sachs estimated the number would climb to 2.25 million from March 15 to 21.
Economists at Morgan Stanley said they expect jobless claims for the most recent week (ended Saturday) to come in at 3.4 million—about five times the previous record.

For historical perspective, the economists note that initial claims peaked at 695,000 in October 1982, and at 517,000 two weeks after Sept 11, 2001. The figure hit 570,000 in December 2008, following the disruptions around the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and peaked again at 665,000 in March 2009 during the financial crisis.

Morgan Stanley’s jobless forecast is one of the most grim yet.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ge-lay ... 1585060156
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029028493
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Projections are very grim, will impact the consumer sentiment. The stimulus bill has unemployment insurance help..

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:16 pm
by guyinlaw
Auto sales Estimates. Demand is falling

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Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:19 pm
by jpmorganfunds
These estimates are all inaccurate. California alone has over 1 million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/califor ... weeks.html

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:21 pm
by surfstar
Huge numbers for sure and only the beginning.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm
by willthrill81
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. I wouldn't bet that the market has priced in 3+ million being suddenly unemployed with more to surely follow.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:25 pm
by 7eight9
The American Gaming Association (AGA) has revealed that 100% of the United States’ 465 commercial casinos will be closed as of midday on Wednesday. ...
The mass, unprecedented closures affect almost the entire US Casino workforce of 649,000 people and are expected to see a combined US$43.5 billion stripped from the economy assuming the casino remain closed for two months.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/03 ... wednesday/

I'll be surprised if the estimates aren't on the low side.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
by TheTimeLord
YAWN! Meaningless number. It will be high, it will be horrific and it is expected. From an investing perspective a huge yawn to me, from a human perspective a real tragedy.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:31 pm
by willthrill81
7eight9 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:25 pm
The American Gaming Association (AGA) has revealed that 100% of the United States’ 465 commercial casinos will be closed as of midday on Wednesday. ...
The mass, unprecedented closures affect almost the entire US Casino workforce of 649,000 people and are expected to see a combined US$43.5 billion stripped from the economy assuming the casino remain closed for two months.
https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/03 ... wednesday/

I'll be surprised if the estimates aren't on the low side.
The authors of the article cited in the OP say that Morgan Stanley's 3.4 million estimate is "one of the most grim yet." Frankly, I think that it's at least somewhat on the low side. I would not be shocked to see the report at 5+ million.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:40 pm
by Xrayman69
I went for my 1 hour solo run today (permitted activity) and basically saw EVERY business closed. Other than large corporations with employees working from home or paid to stay home the remainder would otherwise be eligible and apply for unemployment insurance.

I fear that the small business’ employ much more individuals that the large corporations. As result I suspect the unemployment numbers will be shockingly high (if not this report than next report particular if home and shelter orders remain)

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:23 pm
by Nate79
To keep in perspective there are about 130 million full time workers in the US and about 160 million employed total (something like that if I read the statistics correctly).

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:27 pm
by bugleheadd
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. I wouldn't bet that the market has priced in 3+ million being suddenly unemployed with more to surely follow.
why woudnt it be priced in? its been all over the news and talked about since early last week how millions will be unemployed last week alone, and we could end up with 20-40% unemployment.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:33 pm
by whodidntante
Now this is a proper doom thread.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:36 pm
by willthrill81
bugleheadd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. I wouldn't bet that the market has priced in 3+ million being suddenly unemployed with more to surely follow.
why woudnt it be priced in? its been all over the news and talked about since early last week how millions will be unemployed last week alone, and we could end up with 20-40% unemployment.
The Coronavirus was all over the news when it was in China, but apparently Mr. Market believed that China could completely contain a virus, even after it spread to Italy and was infecting people left and right. :oops:

Several major firms have put out estimates of unemployment claims that are 'only' in the hundreds of thousands. Mr. Market may have listened to those claims, looking for anything optimistic after a precipitous fall. I will not be at all surprised if the cold water of millions of such claims reminds Mr. Market that the worst is far from over.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:25 pm
by CoastalWinds
I anticipate unemployment claims will be ~ 2.5 million. And that markets won’t be happy as they are forced to re-calibrate.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:38 pm
by le_sacre
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:36 pm
The Coronavirus was all over the news when it was in China, but apparently Mr. Market believed that China could completely contain a virus, even after it spread to Italy and was infecting people left and right. :oops:
It's trivially easy to call Mr. Market wrong about a risk assessment after the outcome has obtained. Mr. Market may have been remembering previous viral outbreaks that were contained and did not become pandemics, and considered a risk (rather than certainty) that this would turn out worse.

If you're so certain, then the only rational position is to be shorting the market, right? Or maybe you're not actually certain what will happen, and therefore roughly in agreement with the market by maintaining a long-equities position with a lower valuation than we had in February.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:42 pm
by SilverGirl
So as a small business owner who has thus far avoided laying off any workers because I am desperately waiting to hear about the stimulus, my question is if they allot 350 billion for loans to small businesses, how do they know this will meet the need? Is it based on any real data? We have lost over 50 percent of our business in three weeks (child care center) most of us have not yet laid off... so our numbers will be added soon.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:44 pm
by willthrill81
le_sacre wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:38 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:36 pm
The Coronavirus was all over the news when it was in China, but apparently Mr. Market believed that China could completely contain a virus, even after it spread to Italy and was infecting people left and right. :oops:
It's trivially easy to call Mr. Market wrong about a risk assessment after the outcome has obtained.
I strongly suspected that this would happen way back on 2/25, well before Mr. Market was proven wrong.
le_sacre wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:38 pm
Mr. Market may have been remembering previous viral outbreaks that were contained and did not become pandemics, and considered a risk (rather than certainty) that this would turn out worse.

If you're so certain, then the only rational position is to be shorting the market, right? Or maybe you're not actually certain what will happen, and therefore roughly in agreement with the market by maintaining a long-equities position with a lower valuation than we had in February.
Investing isn't about certainties; it's about the likelihood of various outcomes (e.g. expected value).

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:48 pm
by CoinCounter
I think there is a good chance that the report is better than the worst case estimates from the major banks. Bear in mind that there's essentially a fixed infrastructure to process claims, and the reported number will simply be whatever claims states were able to process by the reporting deadline, rather than the true number of people who would make an initial claim if they could. Even unemployed, many people cannot wait on hold for eight hours.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:49 pm
by guyinlaw
Tomorrow’s Initial Unemployment Claims will be released at 8:30 AM ET. I will be likely be very very rough >> 3.5M for 1 week.

California announced today that it has close to 1 million new claims in that state alone.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/califor ... weeks.html

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 pm
by F150HD
SilverGirl wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:42 pm
So as a small business owner who has thus far avoided laying off any workers because I am desperately waiting to hear about the stimulus, my question is if they allot 350 billion for loans to small businesses, how do they know this will meet the need? Is it based on any real data? We have lost over 50 percent of our business in three weeks (child care center) most of us have not yet laid off... so our numbers will be added soon.
when/if the bill passes we can discuss it. I am anticipating a separate thread dedicated to it, like the TCJA when it passed.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:53 pm
by jackplante
1.75 mm is my estimate for jobless claims.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 pm
by stlutz
From what I've seen from individual states I think the total will be approaching 5m.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:38 am
by le_sacre
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:44 pm
Investing isn't about certainties; it's about the likelihood of various outcomes (e.g. expected value).
So your claim here is that you're not certain... but you are certain the market is not certain enough about lower-than-expected future growth? I don't see any support for (what I see as) your assertion that the market has failed to price in the risk given publicly available information, but maybe I've misapprehended your point.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:57 am
by Novine
bugleheadd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. I wouldn't bet that the market has priced in 3+ million being suddenly unemployed with more to surely follow.
why woudnt it be priced in? its been all over the news and talked about since early last week how millions will be unemployed last week alone, and we could end up with 20-40% unemployment.
Let's revisit this at 4 pm on Thursday. I was skeptical that we would see 2 days in a row of a positive market and I was wrong. But I'm pretty confident that Thursday is going to be rough sledding.

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:05 am
by Alex Frakt
Locked. This subforum is for investing and investment discussions. General economic news is off-topic/non-actionable.