So bottom is probably behind us....right?

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watchnerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd »

dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:08 pm Most posters seem pessimistic but the market is soaring for the 2nd day in a row. Maybe the bottom already hit.
Maybe.

But if we hit bottom already, it would be unlike any big bear market I've ever been in, and it's my 3rd.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Mickstick »

I think this may be one of the last rallies (dead cat bounces) before the final crash. I think the effectiveness of the printing press (or lack there of) will be realized soon.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design" - F.A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit
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watchnerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd »

Mickstick wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:48 pm I think this may be one of the last rallies (dead cat bounces) before the final crash. I think the effectiveness of the printing press (or lack there of) will be realized soon.
That's my suspicion.

Fed + Congress has insured that there is enough money for big corporations and local governments to ride it out for quite a while.

We're going to shift from "we're all going to go bankrupt" de-risking panic to "how much profit are we going to lose?" bad earnings news.
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metalworking
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by metalworking »

You are always one headline away from a massive rally or a massive sell off! I hope we have bottomed already but doubt it.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by JLJL »

holy moly what's happening right now in this last 15 mins :P
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DonIce »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:47 pm
dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:08 pm Most posters seem pessimistic but the market is soaring for the 2nd day in a row. Maybe the bottom already hit.
Maybe.

But if we hit bottom already, it would be unlike any big bear market I've ever been in, and it's my 3rd.
Except the Dec 2018 bear market, which was even faster.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by jebmke »

JLJL wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm holy moly what's happening right now in this last 15 mins :P
Some disagreements over the Senate bill.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by palanzo »

mrspock wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:12 pm
lukestuckenhymer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm Wishful, deluded thinking. Trump is telling us we'll go back to normal in 2 weeks, public health officials saying 18 months. I know who I'm believing. I'm not betting that we've seen the bottom.
The only deluded thinking going on here is that this virus is going to cripple the US economy for 5 or 10 years -- pure unadulterated fantasy. At most I'd say it's 3 years, a more likely scenario is half the losses are recouped by EOY 2020, and the last half in 2021. People are also for some reason I cannot understand, thinking they need to be all in, or all out. There's a range of choices in between, from strict re-balancing bands, to judgement call AA changes where you buy low and hold at various levels (-30%, -50%, -70%). In the latter scenario you make 1.4:1, 2:1 or 3.3:1 on your money, good luck getting that return in this time frame any time in the next 10 or 20 years by simply index investing.

Public health officials are not economists, nor are they politicians, or right 100% of the time. Furthermore, COVID-19 testing regimes IMO, are a complete embarrassment to the branch of Mathematics known as "Statistics" -- no random sampling, no consistency, reporting numerators without denominators. They are clearly messaging "worse case" outcomes to get people to do the right thing (self isolation), as one might in their position, this means that it's pretty likely this turns out a lot less bad than anyone might think if they are listening to these officials. It turns out, what makes for good public health policy (scaring people into doing the right thing), is a recipe for disaster for anxiety prone investors.
Can you say more about this:
There's a range of choices in between, from strict re-balancing bands, to judgement call AA changes where you buy low and hold at various levels (-30%, -50%, -70%).
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by JLJL »

jebmke wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:56 pm
JLJL wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm holy moly what's happening right now in this last 15 mins :P
Some disagreements over the Senate bill.
Got it thanks. Oh wait looks like they agreed a little. Oh no now they must not again.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by 7eight9 »

jebmke wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:56 pm
JLJL wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm holy moly what's happening right now in this last 15 mins :P
Some disagreements over the Senate bill.
Buy the rumor. Sell the news. :happy
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by m@ver1ck »

I'm looking at another 20% fall - this time a slow bleed, with the regular 401K investors propping up the markets...
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd »

DonIce wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:55 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:47 pm
dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:08 pm Most posters seem pessimistic but the market is soaring for the 2nd day in a row. Maybe the bottom already hit.
Maybe.

But if we hit bottom already, it would be unlike any big bear market I've ever been in, and it's my 3rd.
Except the Dec 2018 bear market, which was even faster.
That wasn't a big bear.

That was a little bear.

I don't even count that one.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DonIce »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:07 pm That wasn't a big bear.

That was a little bear.

I don't even count that one.
True, it was a cub market.
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watchnerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd »

m@ver1ck wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm I'm looking at another 20% fall - this time a slow bleed, with the regular 401K investors propping up the markets...
That's my suspicion.

The death by a thousand cuts over the next several weeks as the bad jobs, bad earnings keep coming in and the virus keeps getting bigger.

The kind of stuff that gets people really depressed because it just goes on and on and on.

And throw in a few deaths of political leaders and/or celebrities for some extra shock value.

And maybe Iran starts some trouble in the Persian Gulf, too, to distract their dying, angry populace and attempt to jack oil prices back up.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by bck63 »

I took a substantial amount of risk off the table in December and January, not because I saw this coming but because I became more and more uncomfortable with my asset allocation as I continue to age. I am down about 11% from my highs right now and feeling really good about that. I bought some stock this week, and even if we're not at the bottom, I feel reasonably confident that what I bought this week will be worth more in 5-10 years anyway. I'll be buying more in the weeks to come.

I'm sleeping really well at night.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by whereskyle »

Until today, I figured we had more to go, but now I'm hearing from people at work, friends, and family that they are interested in buying stocks. That interest in my mind indicates that the market may be turning around. Would I rest my hat on that? Absolutely not, but it does seem meaningful.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by JLJL »

whereskyle wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:23 pm Until today, I figured we had more to go, but now I'm hearing from people at work, friends, and family that they are interested in buying stocks. That interest in my mind indicates that the market may be turning around. Would I rest my hat on that? Absolutely not, but it does seem meaningful.
I work with a number of people and have friends and family and none of them ever talk about stocks, ever. Maybe I need to get a new opening line.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd »

whereskyle wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:23 pm Until today, I figured we had more to go, but now I'm hearing from people at work, friends, and family that they are interested in buying stocks. That interest in my mind indicates that the market may be turning around. Would I rest my hat on that? Absolutely not, but it does seem meaningful.
I tend to take those as signs the bottom is far away.

I like anecdotal tea leaves where people are afraid of stocks, both because of bad recent returns and they're worried about their own jobs.

But...no change to my investing plans, either way. Still in the market, still buying.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Dave55 »

mrspock wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:12 pm
lukestuckenhymer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm Wishful, deluded thinking. Trump is telling us we'll go back to normal in 2 weeks, public health officials saying 18 months. I know who I'm believing. I'm not betting that we've seen the bottom.
The only deluded thinking going on here is that this virus is going to cripple the US economy for 5 or 10 years -- pure unadulterated fantasy. At most I'd say it's 3 years, a more likely scenario is half the losses are recouped by EOY 2020, and the last half in 2021. People are also for some reason I cannot understand, thinking they need to be all in, or all out. There's a range of choices in between, from strict re-balancing bands, to judgement call AA changes where you buy low and hold at various levels (-30%, -50%, -70%). In the latter scenario you make 1.4:1, 2:1 or 3.3:1 on your money, good luck getting that return in this time frame any time in the next 10 or 20 years by simply index investing.

Public health officials are not economists, nor are they politicians, or right 100% of the time. Furthermore, COVID-19 testing regimes IMO, are a complete embarrassment to the branch of Mathematics known as "Statistics" -- no random sampling, no consistency, reporting numerators without denominators. They are clearly messaging "worse case" outcomes to get people to do the right thing (self isolation), as one might in their position, this means that it's pretty likely this turns out a lot less bad than anyone might think if they are listening to these officials. It turns out, what makes for good public health policy (scaring people into doing the right thing), is a recipe for disaster for anxiety prone investors.
Mr Spock, you forgot to begin with: "Logic Dictates"......

Otherwise excellent post.

Dave
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:14 pm
m@ver1ck wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm I'm looking at another 20% fall - this time a slow bleed, with the regular 401K investors propping up the markets...
That's my suspicion.

The death by a thousand cuts over the next several weeks as the bad jobs, bad earnings keep coming in and the virus keeps getting bigger.

The kind of stuff that gets people really depressed because it just goes on and on and on.

And throw in a few deaths of political leaders and/or celebrities for some extra shock value.

And maybe Iran starts some trouble in the Persian Gulf, too, to distract their dying, angry populace and attempt to jack oil prices back up.
+1 Yeah - I gotta agree with both m@v and watchnerd. I really don't think we'll see a fundamental change in direction (downward) UNTIL Mr Market manages to see, at least, a plateauing of new infection numbers.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:55 am
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose record levels yesterday in anticipation of a stimulus plan, not because one occurred. One occurred last night and the market opened a bit down.

If the pandemic turns out to be economically less bad than the market expected, the market will likely increase. Maybe the market expects 30% unemployment and it will actually top out at 25%.
LOL!!!!!!

Magical thinking is a lovely thing.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by abuss368 »

dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
No one has any idea and anyone who says they do should not be followed. All crystal balls are cloudy.

It is most import to select an asset allocation that an investor can stay the course with in all markets.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by abuss368 »

I would also stay the course by rebalancing. That is buying stocks on the way down and the way up. One day in the future you will be happy you did that.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by panhead »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:55 am
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose record levels yesterday in anticipation of a stimulus plan, not because one occurred. One occurred last night and the market opened a bit down.

If the pandemic turns out to be economically less bad than the market expected, the market will likely increase. Maybe the market expects 30% unemployment and it will actually top out at 25%.
LOL!!!!!!

Magical thinking is a lovely thing.
"Hey...like, man....like.....that's your like...opinion.....man!"

Sorry, couldn't resist, but I will also say, "That rug really tied the room together!"

Edited to add that these comments equally well predict the bottom.... :sharebeer
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:55 am
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose record levels yesterday in anticipation of a stimulus plan, not because one occurred. One occurred last night and the market opened a bit down.

If the pandemic turns out to be economically less bad than the market expected, the market will likely increase. Maybe the market expects 30% unemployment and it will actually top out at 25%.
LOL!!!!!!

Magical thinking is a lovely thing.
Have you sold all of your equities?
nashiowa
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nashiowa »

Maybe. Maybe not. No one knows. In fact, I’d probably guess the majority guessing will guess wrong.

:sharebeer
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Doom&Gloom »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:47 pm
dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:08 pm Most posters seem pessimistic but the market is soaring for the 2nd day in a row. Maybe the bottom already hit.
Maybe.

But if we hit bottom already, it would be unlike any big bear market I've ever been in, and it's my 3rd.
It may not feel like it, but three is a pretty small sample size. Not that I don't agree with you--and I've seen a few myself.

I re-balanced a little at Monday's close. I de-re-balanced at today's close (which was a good bit lower than when I entered my MF order two hours prior). In the process, I accelerated the simplification of my portfolio a bit earlier than planned by eliminating one MF from my slicing-and-dicing.

I anticipate having to re-balance again by buying more stocks in the near future. If I'm wrong, I'm perfectly fine with that.
milktoast
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by milktoast »

The bottom may or may not be behind us. I don't know.

My feeling is that we'll violently thrash up and down for at least a few more months. But I actually think that most days we'll be between monday's close and today's.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Ocean77 »

m@ver1ck wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm I'm looking at another 20% fall - this time a slow bleed, with the regular 401K investors propping up the markets...
That would be my guess as well. Perhaps we'll see a bottom in about half a year, at 50..60% below the February peak.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Waiting_for_Godot »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:54 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:55 am
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose record levels yesterday in anticipation of a stimulus plan, not because one occurred. One occurred last night and the market opened a bit down.

If the pandemic turns out to be economically less bad than the market expected, the market will likely increase. Maybe the market expects 30% unemployment and it will actually top out at 25%.
LOL!!!!!!

Magical thinking is a lovely thing.
Have you sold all of your equities?
Not OP, but I did capitulate. The amount is insignificant, especially in the long run, which means I have a lot of reflecting to do about my tolerance for risk.
adave
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by adave »

We certainly are not out of the woods by a long shot. Where I live, however, it is getting pretty hot outside. Hotter temperatures make it more difficult for the virus to spread, so maybe we will see a slowing of the spread in the next few weeks in hotter climates. I have feeling this virus may start to wane as quickly as it spread, many viruses have that sort of behavior. Let's hope so, anyway.

In terms of investing, I continue to nibble, but still have decent cash pile waiting to deploy.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Glockenspiel »

I doubt it. Wait 1-2 weeks until we start seeing hospitals get overloaded and the death rates increase dramatically. Most people have only been sheltering in place for about a week or 10 days. Meaning we're still within the possible incubation period and people are just starting to get sick.
Pikel
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Pikel »

I think we're just getting started. I don't see how this sky high unemployment will be unwound overnight.

Also think this could be a turning point for 'speculative yield' that Jack Bogle talks about. Easily could end up with pessimism suppressing equity returns over the next 10 years.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Glockenspiel »

adave wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:14 pm Where I live, however, it is getting pretty hot outside. Hotter temperatures make it more difficult for the virus to spread, so maybe we will see a slowing of the spread in the next few weeks in hotter climates.
Not necessarily. No one knows as this is a brand new virus. Australia is currently pretty warm, and has had almost 3,000 cases and 8 deaths, with a population about the size of Florida.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by adave »

Glockenspiel wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 pm
adave wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:14 pm Where I live, however, it is getting pretty hot outside. Hotter temperatures make it more difficult for the virus to spread, so maybe we will see a slowing of the spread in the next few weeks in hotter climates.
Not necessarily. No one knows as this is a brand new virus. Australia is currently pretty warm, and has had almost 3,000 cases and 8 deaths, with a population about the size of Florida.
It is new but also not that new. Coronaviruses have been around for a long time and have been studied thanks to the SARS and MERS outbreaks. I am not saying it will happen, but it is well known that RNA virus transmission is hampered (but not stopped) by higher heat and humidity levels. Humidity may be more important as is causes the virus particle to swell. It is possible it will wane in the northern hemisphere as we get into summer and get worse in the southern hemisphere, and then come back in the fall.... which is why a vaccine is very important. We will see, not making any predictions here, but there is data out there on these types of viruses and how they behave.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:54 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:55 am
peskypesky wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose record levels yesterday in anticipation of a stimulus plan, not because one occurred. One occurred last night and the market opened a bit down.

If the pandemic turns out to be economically less bad than the market expected, the market will likely increase. Maybe the market expects 30% unemployment and it will actually top out at 25%.
LOL!!!!!!

Magical thinking is a lovely thing.
Have you sold all of your equities?
I sure did. 100% of them. I'm all cash, money market index and bond index now.
Patzer
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Patzer »

dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
I don't know what will happen. I think there is a less than 50% chance that was the bottom.
A few possible scenarios.

(1)
Things start to look better in [INSERT PLACE], so the markets rally.
[INSERT PLACE] opens back up after only being close 4-6 weeks. The markets rally more.
The virus starts a new outbreak [INSERT PLACE] and [INSERT PLACE] has to close down again. The markets fall and set a new bottom.

(2)
[INSERT PLACE] stays closed for 6 months to beat the virus and is successful.
The market stays down for [INSERT PLACE] for a long time.
(2a) We trade flat OR (2b) We hit a new bottom when those that expected a V-shaped recovery don't get one.
A month before [INSERT PLACE] opens back up, the markets rally.
[INSERT PLACE] finally opens up after 6 months, and the market rallies even more.

(3)
Three months after [INSERT PLACE] has opened back up
(3a) The jobs have come back and the market hits new highs.
OR
(3b) The jobs haven't come back. Entire industries have been transformed and will never return to their former glory. Companies, individuals, and governments are saddled with debt. The recession turns into a depression, and markets hit new lows.
frugalmama
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by frugalmama »

No, I don't think we have hit bottom. I would be very surprised if we have. I think it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
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Nicolas
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Nicolas »

The bottom can’t be in until we have capitulation. Have all weak hands capitulated? I think not.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by quantAndHold »

whereskyle wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:23 pm Until today, I figured we had more to go, but now I'm hearing from people at work, friends, and family that they are interested in buying stocks. That interest in my mind indicates that the market may be turning around. Would I rest my hat on that? Absolutely not, but it does seem meaningful.
I take that as a sign that we still have a ways to go before the turn. Give it a couple of weeks. They’ll change their minds.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
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ray.james
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ray.james »

Nope, just my view. I also thinks the markets will go through waves. Economy reopens in 6-8 weeks and market recovers much ahead(in 2-3 weeks). But virus can come back/small business do not recover causing a second dip by year end.

The Great Depression gave us social security. May be this will give us universal healthcare. Who knows?
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Piehole
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Piehole »

The bottom is definitely in.

My next post got deleted by BH admin. They must have thought it was duplicate. It said:

The bottom is definitely not in.
Last edited by Piehole on Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Teague
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Teague »

Speaking for myself after a quick check, yes, my bottom is behind me.
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unclescrooge
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by unclescrooge »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:17 am Any opinion I express is speculation and has no impact on my investing strategy.

No, I don't think we're at the bottom yet, it's probably an intermission between Act I (de-risking) and Act II (earnings and unemployment numbers come in).

But of course I don't know.
Literally every single person I've spoken to has expressed similar sentiment.

Which leads me to believe there will either be 3 Acts, or this will be the shortest bear market ever.
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unclescrooge
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by unclescrooge »

JLJL wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:27 pm
whereskyle wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:23 pm Until today, I figured we had more to go, but now I'm hearing from people at work, friends, and family that they are interested in buying stocks. That interest in my mind indicates that the market may be turning around. Would I rest my hat on that? Absolutely not, but it does seem meaningful.
I work with a number of people and have friends and family and none of them ever talk about stocks, ever. Maybe I need to get a new opening line.
Maybe you need new friends :mrgreen:
Rosencrantz1
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Nicolas wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:04 pm The bottom can’t be in until we have capitulation. Have all weak hands capitulated? I think not.
Fair point. Although, with all the "what's wrong with jumping out of the market for a month because I KNOW it's headed down" threads I've seen, I think there must be, at least, some capitulation going on :beer
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by tibbitts »

dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
I don't understand why you would ask a question on a site where nobody professes to know anything. I would say no, not everyone tries to guess and speculate.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by cantabtim »

I know nothing about whether we've hit bottom. Yes, the market is supposed to be forward looking and yes the market doesn't care about the tragedy of people dying (unless its a number that materially effects demand - and I hope we're looking at <1% of the population not 10%). But I think the real recovery, in GDP, employment and the market will be slow.

Each of us, rich, poor, unemployed, working from home, young, old has been scared by this. Even if we don't think we're going to die, those who got ill are scared that science couldn't protect them, those that lost their job are scared that their world could collapse so quickly, and (an order of magnitude less serious from a human perspective but equally important from an economic one) those of us that can still perform our white collar jobs while working at home and receive a paycheck from our megacorp employer, are scared that our portfolios and investment plans for retirement, children's college etc could collapse so quickly.

That kind of fear I don't think evaporates immediately even when the bars re-open and we're enjoying a summer vacation. How many of us heard older relatives who lived through the depression talk about their frugal ways. You don't quickly forget having the security you took for granted whipped away, and some of the pillars on which you built your life exposed as flimsy and worthless.

Frugal, scared people do not exhibit the behaviors that have driven our consumerist, buy today - pay never economy.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Novine »

Definitely bearish on the near term prospects. Anyone who wants to talk about the "wisdom of the markets" needs to explain how "the market" was completely oblivious to the oncoming threat of the coronavirus to the US and world economy. All the warning lights were flashing red and yet stocks continued to race upward until they didn't.
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky »

Novine wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:28 pm Definitely bearish on the near term prospects. Anyone who wants to talk about the "wisdom of the markets" needs to explain how "the market" was completely oblivious to the oncoming threat of the coronavirus to the US and world economy. All the warning lights were flashing red and yet stocks continued to race upward until they didn't.
Exactly.
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