Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

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wkimdds
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Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by wkimdds » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm

Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...

Tigermoose
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Tigermoose » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:31 pm

Today's jump was largely due to the anticipation of congress passing the $1.5 Trillion stimulis package.
Institutions matter

ciscovp
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by ciscovp » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:45 pm

Tomorrow will be another big drop. Like a yoyo....

Lee_WSP
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:48 pm

The volume looks extremely low for the past week. I expect normal volumes to resume once the bill actually passes or fails again.

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wkimdds
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by wkimdds » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:42 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:48 pm
The volume looks extremely low for the past week. I expect normal volumes to resume once the bill actually passes or fails again.

So QE is not final yet? Still needs approval from senate right?

bloom2708
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by bloom2708 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:46 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:42 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:48 pm
The volume looks extremely low for the past week. I expect normal volumes to resume once the bill actually passes or fails again.

So QE is not final yet? Still needs approval from senate right?
The Fed is doing all kinds of QE. The bill (full of pork) is for individual and corporate help.

QE has been happening from the start.
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RomeoMustDie
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by RomeoMustDie » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:46 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...
My hunch is it's a dead cat bounce and with the current market volatility and directional trend it could be down tomorrow, but I'm not a market timer so my hunches are just for fun.

Of course if the fed announces the stimulus bill tomorrow, the news may drive the market upward.

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wkimdds
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by wkimdds » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:12 pm

RomeoMustDie wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:46 pm
wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...
My hunch is it's a dead cat bounce and with the current market volatility and directional trend it could be down tomorrow, but I'm not a market timer so my hunches are just for fun.

Of course if the fed announces the stimulus bill tomorrow, the news may drive the market upward.

Are you staying the course? I'm doing it so far but having my account value go down everyday is surely frustrating :)

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Brianmcg321
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Brianmcg321 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:15 pm

I think its the dead cat mouse.
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RomeoMustDie
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by RomeoMustDie » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:17 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:12 pm
RomeoMustDie wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:46 pm
wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...
My hunch is it's a dead cat bounce and with the current market volatility and directional trend it could be down tomorrow, but I'm not a market timer so my hunches are just for fun.

Of course if the fed announces the stimulus bill tomorrow, the news may drive the market upward.

Are you staying the course? I'm doing it so far but having my account value go down everyday is surely frustrating :)
Yes, I'm staying the course, and continuing to buy when I have funds available.

I wouldn't blame a person for choosing to hold extra cash right now though.

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watchnerd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:19 pm

Of course it's not an actual recovery.
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Corsair
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Corsair » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:20 pm

Of the 20 best up days in history, 70% saw the market lower 100 days after by on average -18%. Great example was March 13, which followed -17%.

Today was a bear market rally.

Crazy they are looking at a $6 trillion package. $4 trillion to FED lending.

justsomeguy2018
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm

So was this a suckers' rally?

No offense to retirees but I would hate to see a huge rally the next 2 weeks as I have 401k money hitting tomorrow and bonus money hitting 401k next Thursday.

Then, rally away.

Today's gain seemed like it was based on a wing and a prayer.

peskypesky
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:27 pm

dead cat bounce

Novine
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Novine » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:30 pm

Forum wouldn't let me answer DCB

m@ver1ck
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by m@ver1ck » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:33 pm

Maybe weekly additions to 401K on Monday evening - followed by purchases into the indexes today?

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watchnerd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
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sperry8
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by sperry8 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:40 pm

Corsair wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:20 pm
Of the 20 best up days in history, 70% saw the market lower 100 days after by on average -18%. Great example was March 13, which followed -17%.

Today was a bear market rally.

Crazy they are looking at a $6 trillion package. $4 trillion to FED lending.
Source?
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:42 pm

m@ver1ck wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:33 pm
Maybe weekly additions to 401K on Monday evening - followed by purchases into the indexes today?
I put another $125 in market on Monday....just been nibbling at this point (maybe about $2k in taxable over this decline?)....now wondering if I should have done more. Of course we could be down another 50% in 2 months (2 weeks maybe, even).

My plan was to try and put 1 big large lump sum amount ($5k to $15k) at or near the bottom (which I realize is impossible to know).

WhyNotUs
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by WhyNotUs » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:43 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
This needs a punchline
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX

Red Spot
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Red Spot » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:44 pm

I am very grateful to all those staying the curse as otherwise things could be much worse

DB2
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by DB2 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
A sucker's rally is someone who thinks the rally is real (and might buy because of that) when in all reality, it's just a bear market rally where lower lows are likely. More of a fake-out.
Last edited by DB2 on Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.

justsomeguy2018
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
Nothing I suppose....feel like you are a sucker if you buy into these rallies. Even if we bottomed yesterday I'm not buying into these increases (other than pre-determined contributions). I've bought what I needed to during the declines.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:51 pm

Congress, which created the Fed, gave it considerable autonomy, but only in certain directions constrained by law. The Senate does not have to approve specific Fed actions.

The Fed reports to Congress, with the chair testifying before each house every six months.

I personally agree monetary policy should be free from political interference. Congress controls fiscal policy, which is much more powerful.

PJW

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watchnerd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:59 pm

WhyNotUs wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:43 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
This needs a punchline
Sucker's rally tells you there is a safe word before it bends you over.
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bitdocmd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by bitdocmd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:01 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...

short squeeze

APX32
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by APX32 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:20 pm

You can call it whatever, suckers rally, relief rally, bear rally, they all happen within the confines of a down market in which the overall trend is still lower.

As I mentioned in the free fall thread, I used this opportunity today to sell most of my equity positions.

I’m staying the course, the course of capital preservation and not losing money.
8% SPY | 5% GLD | 87% Cash

minimalistmarc
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by minimalistmarc » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:27 pm

Still a lot of panic out there. Stay the course folks. In 10 years time you’ll be glad guy bought now

fatFIRE
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by fatFIRE » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:39 pm

I'm actually kind of upset. Was hoping it to drop further to around 50% (from the peak), so I can rebalance and buy more stocks... we're going in the wrong direction!!!

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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:41 pm

fatFIRE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:39 pm
I'm actually kind of upset. Was hoping it to drop further to around 50% (from the peak), so I can rebalance and buy more stocks... we're going in the wrong direction!!!
Oh...do you think we're done?

I think this is just the intermission between Act I and Act II.
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fatFIRE
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by fatFIRE » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:43 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:41 pm
fatFIRE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:39 pm
I'm actually kind of upset. Was hoping it to drop further to around 50% (from the peak), so I can rebalance and buy more stocks... we're going in the wrong direction!!!
Oh...do you think we're done?

I think this is just the intermission between Act I and Act II.
I hope so... I still have 2/3 of my cash reserve sitting on the sidelines. You never know, maybe an effective drug treatment will be found next week, and this will be the fastest recovery on record.

sapper1371
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by sapper1371 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:45 pm

APX32 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:20 pm
I’m staying the course, the course of capital preservation and not losing money.
Why did you wait until today to preserve your capital?

Tigermoose
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Tigermoose » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:48 pm

fatFIRE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:43 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:41 pm
fatFIRE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:39 pm
I'm actually kind of upset. Was hoping it to drop further to around 50% (from the peak), so I can rebalance and buy more stocks... we're going in the wrong direction!!!
Oh...do you think we're done?

I think this is just the intermission between Act I and Act II.
I hope so... I still have 2/3 of my cash reserve sitting on the sidelines. You never know, maybe an effective drug treatment will be found next week, and this will be the fastest recovery on record.
I predict more and more reports from Doctors in New York and other places about how the chloroquinine, zinc, and antibiotics treatment is drastically reducing deaths and the severity of COVID19.
Institutions matter

Xrayman69
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Xrayman69 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:09 pm

My opinion for the dramatic nearly 10% increase for the S&P today partially incorporates that the market is forward looking and that the “future prospect” of government intervention in some manner would likely be positive for the economy. As result some of the machines now start buying and the lower volume for the day exaggerates the upside.

Once the the intervention is confirmed the future now becomes less clear and thus the machines can’t have as much “visibility” and thus begin to sell along with human investors or hedge funds or commercial investors who feel this is a good opportunity to sell will do so thus driving prices down and likely greater than the upside because down recently has had greater volume. The decrease may kick in the machines again further driving prices down. It’s not until the human investors if not completely freaked out due to the continuing descent of equity prices stop and feel that the underlying companies current stock price is below its intrinsic value based upon asset alone without any requirement for future earnings.

Hopefully no mass panic selling by the public markets that leads to the negative feedback loop of machine selling leading to further human panic selling. However, I fully expect and prepared for this to occur and will likely buy a little above and beyond my weekly Friday purchases. The scenario above is when all the weak hands are flushed out and thus capitulation of sellers that forms a base. What is that base, I have no idea but I suspect it won’t be zero. The physical assets of the companies in the S&P have some intrinsic value.

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FIREchief
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by FIREchief » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:42 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
Ooh! Ooh! I know! It's a bear rally if I'm in the market and a sucker's rally if I'm on the sideline. :D
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

justsomeguy2018
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:29 pm

I heard on CNBC some guy saying clients (retail investors) were calling in like crazy Friday saying to sell and get out of the market.

Anecdotal, but I wonder if this is the "capitulation" you often hear about when nearing a market bottom.

Or the virus transmission and death toll could surge and we lose another 50%......

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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by White Coat Investor » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:32 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...
I don't know if we hit the bottom Monday. What I can tell you is that the bottom will feel just like the last two days but can only be recognized in retrospect.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by MindBogler » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:34 pm

Red Spot wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:44 pm
I am very grateful to all those staying the curse as otherwise things could be much worse
Staying the curse...now that is a new one. :)

:sharebeer

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watchnerd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:37 pm

FIREchief wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:42 pm


Ooh! Ooh! I know! It's a bear rally if I'm in the market and a sucker's rally if I'm on the sideline. :D
Oh, that's good...writing that down...
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watchnerd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:37 pm

MindBogler wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:34 pm

Staying the curse...now that is a new one. :)

:sharebeer
Love it!
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watchnerd
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:38 pm

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:29 pm
I heard on CNBC some guy saying clients (retail investors) were calling in like crazy Friday saying to sell and get out of the market.

Anecdotal, but I wonder if this is the "capitulation" you often hear about when nearing a market bottom.

Or the virus transmission and death toll could surge and we lose another 50%......
Anything could happen.

But more importantly:

Who still does trades by phone?
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by White Coat Investor » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 pm

ciscovp wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:45 pm
Tomorrow will be another big drop. Like a yoyo....
If not tomorrow, the next day. I agree volatility is to be expected in the near future. What I don't know, however, is whether we've hit bottom yet or not. I speculate that no, but really have no idea. I suspect the turn will be EITHER when people go back to work OR when cases appear to be downtrending, but even that is speculating as I really have no idea. Crystal ball so cloudy.
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unclescrooge
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by unclescrooge » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:19 pm

Corsair wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:20 pm
Of the 20 best up days in history, 70% saw the market lower 100 days after by on average -18%. Great example was March 13, which followed -17%.

Today was a bear market rally.

Crazy they are looking at a $6 trillion package. $4 trillion to FED lending.
And what happened 180 and 365 days later?

TheLaughingCow
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by TheLaughingCow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:59 pm

RomeoMustDie wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:46 pm
wkimdds wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Is this a


Dead cat bounce?

Artificial increase due to QE?

Or actual recovery?


I think its dead cat bounce. Feel like things just have started...
My hunch is it's a dead cat bounce and with the current market volatility and directional trend it could be down tomorrow, but I'm not a market timer so my hunches are just for fun.

Of course if the fed announces the stimulus bill tomorrow, the news may drive the market upward.
Or when the stimulus is passed the market may go down, having priced in a better stimulus. Stranger things have happened.

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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by TheLaughingCow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:01 pm

Tigermoose wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:48 pm
fatFIRE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:43 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:41 pm
fatFIRE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:39 pm
I'm actually kind of upset. Was hoping it to drop further to around 50% (from the peak), so I can rebalance and buy more stocks... we're going in the wrong direction!!!
Oh...do you think we're done?

I think this is just the intermission between Act I and Act II.
I hope so... I still have 2/3 of my cash reserve sitting on the sidelines. You never know, maybe an effective drug treatment will be found next week, and this will be the fastest recovery on record.
I predict more and more reports from Doctors in New York and other places about how the chloroquinine, zinc, and antibiotics treatment is drastically reducing deaths and the severity of COVID19.
I hope so.

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mister_sparkle
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by mister_sparkle » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:14 pm

My sense is that people are not pricing in a pandemic that overwhelms our medical system and eventually effectively shutting down most economic activity in almost every state, at least for a few months and possibly much longer.

Today was a classic DCB. This situation is not temporary, and will not be resolved in a few weeks. We're in for at least a few months of this, until we get our testing rolled out to nearly everyone who's affected.

DonIce
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by DonIce » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:17 pm

The more people think it's a dead cat mouse, the less likely it is to be one.

retireIn2020
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by retireIn2020 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:27 pm

S&P keep's holding at around 2400 through this downturn I expect extreme volotility for a couple weeks.

Here's the dilemma I see, the issue is wether to open the economy back up, or keep locked down.

Open it back up and the economy picks up steam/market jumps, keep closed and the market/economy heads for the dumpster.

I guess that's all I can say without getting Polit ical.

jjface
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by jjface » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:31 pm

I say we'll see some losses early then stimulus bill will get in the news and we'll have another 10% up day followed by a 5% down day to finish the week.

If they mess with the bill timing we'll have a 4% down day followed by a 12% up day on Friday to finish the week.

Everyone will get jitters regardless over the weekend as usual and Mon will be a down day -10%

Strange times.

Remember you heard it here first.

Momus
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Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Post by Momus » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:49 pm

Today is bear rally short squeeze.

Tomorrow is a new short/put day.

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