Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

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Rick Ferri
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Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:01 am

This is an exceptionally good and timely interview with Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. Dr. El-Erian addresses economic 'sudden stops,' the correct fiscal and monetary policy response to the coronavirus, and the outlook ahead.

Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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timboktoo
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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by timboktoo » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:07 am

I'm listening to it now. Have you written any articles recently? Your name has come up recently as someone we'd love to hear from.

- Tim

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by Leesbro63 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:40 am

He’s the best CNBC guest, overall, IMHO. So what’s his bottom line bottom? He was saying 35-40% drop from peak before?

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by DB2 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:49 am

He's one of the few out there I like to listen to.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by Silk McCue » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:06 am

timboktoo wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:07 am
I'm listening to it now. Have you written any articles recently? Your name has come up recently as someone we'd love to hear from.

- Tim
Links on this page for recent articles etc.

https://rickferri.com/blog/

Cheers

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by fatlever » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:06 am

I keep playing back his "Don’t buy the dip during the coronavirus sell-off" warning in my head from the beginning of February which I ignored and kept pumping in money maxing IRA and trying to max out 401K at the beginning of the year like I always do, staying the course and ignoring "the noise." :oops:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/03/d ... erian.html
The corona virus is big, it's going to paralyze China. It's going to cascade through the global economy and importantly it cannot be countered by central bank policies. I think we should pay more attention to this and we should try and resist our inclination to buy the dip....It paralyzes economic confidence. How often do you get a shock that effects the demand and supply side, that disrupts that domesitc and international activities, that derails the service sector at a time when the manufacturing sector is still weak...and all this in the context of fragility of the global economy....THIS ONE IS DIFFERENT. It is not the disruption to Saudi oil production in December, it is not the US missile attack that the US carried on on an Iranian general, this is a fundamental shock to economic growth in China

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by johnz1001 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:25 am

Thanks a lot, Rick, for posting this El-Erian interview. He really provided a broad perspective about the steps to recovery as well as which monetary and fiscal interventions are better and worse for central governments to do.

I liked his suggestions about what the individual investor should do now. And he suggests that each person needs to think about the "minimization of regret" in making decisions about our investments at this point.

I've put some money in the market since the steep decline but not so much that if it goes much further lower than today I will be in trouble. So, I'm trying to keep his advice as a rubric for future decisions as the markets continue to vacillate.

I appreciate the link.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by sixtyforty » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:54 am

Rick Ferri wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:01 am
This is an exceptionally good and timely interview with Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. Dr. El-Erian addresses economic 'sudden stops,' the correct fiscal and monetary policy response to the coronavirus, and the outlook ahead.

Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Rick Ferri
Thanks for posting this. His two principles are excellent.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" - Leonardo Da Vinci

JohnDoh
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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by JohnDoh » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:58 am

Great interview. Thanks for sharing.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by Rick Ferri » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:23 am

timboktoo wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:07 am
I'm listening to it now. Have you written any articles recently? Your name has come up recently as someone we'd love to hear from.

- Tim
I wrote a couple for Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by MidMNtom » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:50 pm

I thought this was excellent....
Thanks for the heads up sir.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by WhyNotUs » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm

Highly recommend listening
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by confusedinvestor » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:32 pm

The best part is the last 8 mins where Dr says 'We shouldn't make mistakes which we will regret in the future....' for our AA...

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:15 pm

Great interview. Extremely well thought out and understandable.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by garlandwhizzer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:50 pm

Thanks for sharing this, Mr. Ferri. Mr. El-Erian has vast economic and investing knowledge, decades of experience through many market and economic cycles, and in addition to that something that doesn't automatically come the the first two things, sound, level-headed judgement. It was a pleasure to listen to him at this difficult time.

Garland Whizzer

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by yukonjack » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:37 pm

Very good and timely interview. I highly recommend listening especially since there are few trusted voices at this critical time.

WhyNotUs
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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by WhyNotUs » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm

Instead of reading all of the dramatic threads these days, follow this link for some sane thoughts. Time will tell whether it plays out this way but it is actionable for individuals.
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX

pascalwager
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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by pascalwager » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:54 pm

He seems to be suggesting selling off international stocks, especially emerging markets, and also domestic corporate bonds, especially high yield--until the virus is defeated or mitigated.

I'd like to see his portfolio. Like Nassim Taleb says, "Just show me your portfolio!"

But as an overview, it was interesting.

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:50 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:01 am
This is an exceptionally good and timely interview with Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. Dr. El-Erian addresses economic 'sudden stops,' the correct fiscal and monetary policy response to the coronavirus, and the outlook ahead.

Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Rick Ferri
Thank you sharing.. Do you agree with him when he says " My fear is consensus is still too optimistic"?

Your recent tweets imply the possibility of larger downside and lots of volatility in the coming days.
This is the eye of the storm. #fintwit --3/24
Last time the Fed bought commercial credit market securities the stock market was here: 3/23
Image

============

He also did an excellent interview on Bloomberg with Jonathan Ferro , when he stayed on for the whole program

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... 2020-video
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309104&p=5124339#p5124339

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by pascalwager » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:08 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:50 pm
Rick Ferri wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:01 am
This is an exceptionally good and timely interview with Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. Dr. El-Erian addresses economic 'sudden stops,' the correct fiscal and monetary policy response to the coronavirus, and the outlook ahead.

Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Rick Ferri
Thank you sharing.. Do you agree with him when he says " My fear is consensus is still too optimistic"?

Your recent tweets imply the possibility of larger downside and lots of volatility in the coming days.
This is the eye of the storm. #fintwit --3/24
Last time the Fed bought commercial credit market securities the stock market was here: 3/23
Image

============

He also did an excellent interview on Bloomberg with Jonathan Ferro , when he stayed on for the whole program

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... 2020-video
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309104&p=5124339#p5124339
His main advice for retail investors: design your portfolio for regret minimization.

annu
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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by annu » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:03 am

No emerging markets? Seeing how those countries are completely locking down the whole nation, I feel they will recover quicker.. infact they are not being nice about makig people stay home, and that is going to be key.
I understand concerns around supply chain. But still unless people are out and about, and buying, economy will be shiite, and to make that happen, you have to contain the spread, and flatten the curve, and not only hope herd community will help. You have to be ready to lockdown the nation, probably again this year,
in winter, but we will be under election hysteria in US and I expect not much to be done as any decision made will be used for election agenda, so probably US is at greater risk, then emerging markets....

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Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:03 pm

Thanks for sharing. I have listened to him a couple of times this week on CNBC. Makes a lot of sense.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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