Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

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justsomeguy2018
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Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
CoastalWinds
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by CoastalWinds »

Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
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justsomeguy2018
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by CoastalWinds »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
Sometimes the search for a vaccine loses impetus when it is found that the symptoms are relatively benign. All signs point to the symptoms of this being anything but, with death or permanent respiratory damage relatively common. So there will be more resources put towards finding a vaccine for as long as it takes.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Hyperchicken »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Crushtheturtle »

Can you imagine a world in which we can't cure the cold virus?

Utter chaos. Permanently low stock market.

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by DonIce »

Don't know anything about the Dow since who cares about it, but the S&P500 will certainly pass its all time high of 3393 again.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Jim180 »

Oh yes, I don't know how long it will take but it will. I remember after dot-com bubble people were asking if the Nasdaq would ever hit 5000 again.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by dru808 »

Ever? Absolutely, unless it’s different this time
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Sandtrap »

The economic cycle is ...a ....cycle.🚴🏻‍♂️

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Small Savanna »

Yes, but not in 2020. I'd guess between two and five years.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by watchnerd »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
No, never again will it be that high. Ever.

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Pete12 »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Yes
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by dru808 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:33 pm probably, but you shouldn't focus on the dow. here's why:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012 ... ut-the-dow
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... e-the-hype
I see this argument all the time. Is there an extended time in history where the Dow and s&p were so different in gain/loss, you could point to and say “here’s why the Dow makes no sense”?
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Monsterflockster »

Dow 50,000 by 2030.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by hagridshut »

Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by jpmorganfunds »

After the housing crash it took over 4 years.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by frugaltigris »

Yes it will in 3-5 years
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Bluce »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
I'm hardly a doctor or scientist, but I recall (and I'm not senile yet) reading, years ago, these points:

- There are around 200 "common cold" viruses.

- Each cold you get, you will then have antibodies for it. This is why us old peeps don't get that many colds, but if we got one per year we would have to live to 200 to be immune to all of them.

- Kids get colds all the time because they aren't immune to any of them yet.

- I do not recall reading anything about cold viruses mutating, as many other viruses do.

Just speculating on this: To cure the common cold they would have to make a vaccine for each of the 200 viruses and it probably isn't worth it.

I will gladly stand corrected on any of the above, but one thing I do know is that medicine is anything but an exact science.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
The world might just end.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Cubicle »

hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pmAre forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
As of my typing this:

24360 new posts and replies over 1668 topics in last 7 days
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by dmcmahon »

Monsterflockster wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:58 pm Dow 50,000 by 2030.
Starbucks Latte $50,000.00 by 2030! :D
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by smitcat »

hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes - those and when all posts about FIRE, 4% is a safe draw, and 100% stock portfolios have not been updated in weeks.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by cheese_breath »

Crushtheturtle wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm Cats and dogs, living together.
It's OK as long as they're married. :wink:
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by GoldenFinch »

hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes. I’ve been noticing some posters are getting really angry about the stay the course mantra. Also, capitulation posts are going up by the day.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by anoop »

I can see Dow at 100k in about 5-7 years.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Bluce »

GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:01 am
hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes. I’ve been noticing some posters are getting really angry about the stay the course mantra. Also, capitulation posts are going up by the day.
Interesting. :beer

I'm not here all the time, so I haven't noticed any of that.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by hagridshut »

Bluce wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:09 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:01 am
hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes. I’ve been noticing some posters are getting really angry about the stay the course mantra. Also, capitulation posts are going up by the day.
Interesting. :beer

I'm not here all the time, so I haven't noticed any of that.
A member here insulted me 5 times in one post yesterday. Their post was deleted by a moderator, but viewtopic.php?f=10&t=308680&p=5123018#p5123018
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by knpstr »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
No, DJIA will NEVER see 29500 ever again... (this is sarcasm)

Who knows how long it will take. Probably a while.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by hagridshut »

Bluce wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:09 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:01 am
hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes. I’ve been noticing some posters are getting really angry about the stay the course mantra. Also, capitulation posts are going up by the day.
Interesting. :beer

I'm not here all the time, so I haven't noticed any of that.
Someone insulted me 5 times in one post yesterday. Their post was deleted by a moderator, but I recounted some of what they wrote to me here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=308680&p=5123018#p5123018
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Bluce »

hagridshut wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:23 am
Bluce wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:09 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:01 am
hagridshut wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes. I’ve been noticing some posters are getting really angry about the stay the course mantra. Also, capitulation posts are going up by the day.
Interesting. :beer

I'm not here all the time, so I haven't noticed any of that.
Someone insulted me 5 times in one post yesterday. Their post was deleted by a moderator, but I recounted some of what they wrote to me here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=308680&p=5123018#p5123018
Haha! Never saw that thread before. :sharebeer
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by BW1985 »

knpstr wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 am
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
No, DJIA will NEVER see 29500 ever again... (this is sarcasm)

Who knows how long it will take. Probably a while.
Are you still 100% equities? Just curious because I remember you from your avatar.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by knpstr »

BW1985 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:11 am Are you still 100% equities? Just curious because I remember you from your avatar.
Yes, and buying more weekly as always.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by BW1985 »

knpstr wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:45 am
BW1985 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:11 am Are you still 100% equities? Just curious because I remember you from your avatar.
Yes, and buying more weekly as always.
That's what I figured.

Staying the course here as well, I have a large cash EF so I was not quite 100/0.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Ocean77 »

The Dow will stay at around the current level until I retire in about 10 years, and on that day jump up to 60,000. So no, it won't ever be at 29,500. :mrgreen:
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by GT99 »

Bluce wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:52 pm
I'm hardly a doctor or scientist, but I recall (and I'm not senile yet) reading, years ago, these points:

- There are around 200 "common cold" viruses.

- Each cold you get, you will then have antibodies for it. This is why us old peeps don't get that many colds, but if we got one per year we would have to live to 200 to be immune to all of them.

- Kids get colds all the time because they aren't immune to any of them yet.

- I do not recall reading anything about cold viruses mutating, as many other viruses do.

Just speculating on this: To cure the common cold they would have to make a vaccine for each of the 200 viruses and it probably isn't worth it.

I will gladly stand corrected on any of the above, but one thing I do know is that medicine is anything but an exact science.
Mostly correct. Cold viruses mutate regularly (well over 200 versions now). To create an effective vaccine, it would have be be updated yearly like the flu vaccine to keep working. Not at all worth the cost for what is an inconvenience for most.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by GT99 »

If the Dow never gets back to 29500 again, we've got a lot more to worry about than our investments.
I think it will get back quicker than the housing crash. 18 months to 2 years.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by protagonist »

Why would anybody ask mere mortals this question?
Do their opinions matter? Do they have any valid scientific basis for their conclusions?

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Glockenspiel »

I'm predicting it will be 3-4 years. Near the end of the next presidential administration.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by aristotelian »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
They are already testing it in Seattle.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by randomguy »

CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
CoastalWinds wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
Sometimes the search for a vaccine loses impetus when it is found that the symptoms are relatively benign. All signs point to the symptoms of this being anything but, with death or permanent respiratory damage relatively common. So there will be more resources put towards finding a vaccine for as long as it takes.
We are still working on HSV, HIV, and a zillion other viruses' despite there being a huge profit incentive and some of them being pretty deadly. Not being an expert in the area, I assume that some of these diseases are just hard. 5But even with out a vaccine, it would be reasonable to expect things to fade away. But that make take 2-3 years and will likely be things where we you have periods of calm and periods of panic.

But yeah unless the DJIA stops getting published, we will almost surely hit 29500 again.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Bluce »

GT99 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:25 pm
Bluce wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:52 pm
I'm hardly a doctor or scientist, but I recall (and I'm not senile yet) reading, years ago, these points:

- There are around 200 "common cold" viruses.

- Each cold you get, you will then have antibodies for it. This is why us old peeps don't get that many colds, but if we got one per year we would have to live to 200 to be immune to all of them.

- Kids get colds all the time because they aren't immune to any of them yet.

- I do not recall reading anything about cold viruses mutating, as many other viruses do.

Just speculating on this: To cure the common cold they would have to make a vaccine for each of the 200 viruses and it probably isn't worth it.

I will gladly stand corrected on any of the above, but one thing I do know is that medicine is anything but an exact science.
Mostly correct. Cold viruses mutate regularly (well over 200 versions now). To create an effective vaccine, it would have be be updated yearly like the flu vaccine to keep working. Not at all worth the cost for what is an inconvenience for most.
Thank you! :beer
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

dru808 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:57 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:33 pm probably, but you shouldn't focus on the dow. here's why:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012 ... ut-the-dow
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017 ... e-the-hype
I see this argument all the time. Is there an extended time in history where the Dow and s&p were so different in gain/loss, you could point to and say “here’s why the Dow makes no sense”?
you wanna go with something more precise or less precise?
The S&P 500 is considered an effective representation for the economy due to its inclusion of around 500 companies, which covers all areas of the United States and across all industries. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is comprised of 30 companies, leading to a more narrow reflection. Further, the DJIA is a price-weighted index, so the largest weighted components are determined by its stock price rather than some fundamental measure.

The S&P 500 is a broader representation, having more stocks and covering every industry. The DJIA is limited and the movement of a stock in the DJIA can have a greater impact than that of the S&P 500. The largest weighted stock in the S&P 500 likely has a smaller weighting than the largest weighted stock in the DJIA. The movement of a few companies can have a profound impact on the DJIA.
source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ulated.asp
And those are the least of the Dow's problems. More troubling is that it ignores the overall size of companies and pays attention to only their share prices. This causes all sorts of oddities. ExxonMobil, for example, divides its value into nearly five billion lower-cost shares, while Caterpillar has around 650 million more expensive ones. Therefore ExxonMobil, one of the largest companies in history, pulls less weight on the Dow than a company less than a fifth its size....

None of these criticisms will come as news to finance professionals, most of whom use far more precise measures — like the S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5,000, which cover more companies more precisely.
source: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012 ... ut-the-dow
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Rat_Race »

I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by LawProf »

I'm still waiting for it to hit 36,000.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by squirm »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Having the market rally back up is one thing, it's another thing to make new highs and stay there.

The issue the fed was having before was a low inflation rate. Now it's going to be even harder for them.
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by squirm »

Rat_Race wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:06 pm I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
Yup.
Market can go low and stay low. They can also go low and go even lower, just like Japan.
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justsomeguy2018
Posts: 1193
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:11 pm

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

Rat_Race wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:06 pm I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
What was the p/e ratio of the nikkei at its peak?
Montgomery
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:11 pm

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Montgomery »

Yes, unless all business activity stops forever and the human heart is suddenly devoid of ambition. Barring those two or a nuclear disaster globally, the markets will rise again.
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