S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

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LFKB
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S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LFKB » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:22 pm

EDITED TITLE to say “hit limit down” instead of “Halted.” Futures can’t trade down more than 5% but can keep trading up after hitting limit down.

Stocks were poised to extend losses Monday after posting their worst week since the financial crisis, as government action to combat the coronavirus pandemic faced a stalemate in Congress.

On Sunday evening, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled more than 900 points while Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell 5%, triggering an automatic shock absorber.

Full Article
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 895917001/
Last edited by LFKB on Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:32 am, edited 3 times in total.

Hyperchicken
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Hyperchicken » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm

Calling the bottom this coming week?

Angst
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Angst » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm

This is getting old

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LFKB
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LFKB » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:25 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Calling bottom this coming week?
I'm not calling anything, but I've got about $200k in bonds currently. I'm moving $50k of into equities when we reach 35% down from the highs (likely tomorrow) and then another $50k for each additional 5% we fall.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by tim1999 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm

Ugh. [Deleted - mod olcomputerguy] The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
Last edited by tim1999 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Enzo IX » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm

Well at least 5% loss of a 70% remaining portfolio is getting to be less of a dollar amount.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:30 pm

So, Dow 90% of peak possible? Dow 2950?

Hyperchicken
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Hyperchicken » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:31 pm

tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. FML. The good news is that in about 3 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
I think it's more of exponential decline, -20-30% per month for... who knows how long.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Enzo IX » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:35 pm

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:30 pm
So, Dow 90% of peak possible? Dow 2950?
If it does I'm gonna go against the board and roll the dice and use my emergency fund. Hopefully ride back up to the all-time high with a 900% gain. If it doesn't work, good thing I volunteer at the local rescue mission.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by sd323232 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:39 pm

Enzo IX wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:35 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:30 pm
So, Dow 90% of peak possible? Dow 2950?
If it does I'm gonna go against the board and roll the dice and use my emergency fund. Hopefully ride back up to the all-time high with a 900% gain. If it doesn't work, good thing I volunteer at the local rescue mission.
if it does, im going to be all on in VTI and VOO.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Kenkat » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:40 pm

I knew this was going to happen.

I didn’t, but it feels good to say that I did. :wink:

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by BionicBillWalsh » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:45 pm

My buy order for VTSAX tomorrow was submitted about 30 minutes ago. I suspect that the drop in value tomorrow will be quite significant. But as they say...nobody knows nothing.

Still have more ammunition in case tomorrow isn't the bottom. But I suspect it will be close.
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by whodidntante » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:48 pm

LFKB wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:25 pm
Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Calling bottom this coming week?
I'm not calling anything, but I've got about $200k in bonds currently. I'm moving $50k of into equities when we reach 35% down from the highs (likely tomorrow) and then another $50k for each additional 5% we fall.
Sounds fun, if you think you can ride it out.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by theorist » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:48 pm

I’m pretty surprised. The * timing * of large stimulus to get $$ to support small businesses and laid off hourly workers is clearly important, not just that it eventually occurs. I’d think everyone would know that time is of the essence, and act accordingly.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by RadAudit » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:49 pm

Well, if the futures are limit down, no use in staying up overnight to watch the European open and guess how the NY markets will do at their open.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by gold99xx » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:57 pm

50 Percent-off the ATH is going to happen. I got a tip that dow 10K was the bottom. I am 100 percent equities, so this will continue to be fun for a while! Stay the course? Hold! Hmm when the SP 500 is gutted cause 300 of the companies have debt and crap balance sheets, I wonder how all of us bogleheads will feel holding TSM and SP500 when it is down 60 percent in real and paper losses ( for some ). Anyone going to rethink when we are at Feb19 2020 levels hopefully in 2025? I am of course doing nothing, but only time will tell if this was the correct strategy. Could THIS be the one time in my life when things NEVER recover? Who knows... I know one thing for sure, I know nothing.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dreamrider » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:58 pm

tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. FML. The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
🥴🙁😁🤣

I hear you. Just rip the band aid and get it over with already. This is getting exhausting.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by yoyo6713 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:00 pm

Since when bogleheards start to watch the clock? :D

We still *could* open or close in green tomorrow, just saying.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by jjface » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:03 pm

theorist wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:48 pm
I’m pretty surprised. The * timing * of large stimulus to get $$ to support small businesses and laid off hourly workers is clearly important, not just that it eventually occurs. I’d think everyone would know that time is of the essence, and act accordingly.
Uncertainty is there too. Markets don't like uncertainty. Most likely we will see a drop until it is announced and then they will announce the stimulus and markets will rise for a while (assuming there were no bad surprises in the package) and then who knows depends on what Corona is up to and how effective the stimulus is in keeping jobs safe.
Last edited by jjface on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Novine
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Novine » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:03 pm

Seeing reports that unemployment claims for the past week exceeded the highest amounts during the Great Recession should do wonders for the markets tomorrow. Each unfolding of the scope of the economic downturn is going to continue to drive the markets down. Anyone who thinks that all the downside has already been priced into the market isn't appreciating how much downside still remains.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by sd323232 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:04 pm

yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:00 pm
Since when bogleheards start to watch the clock? :D

We still *could* open or close in green tomorrow, just saying.
yep, i remember on trump election night, futures were down huuuge, i went to sleep and woke up to a green day!

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by 9-5 Suited » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:10 pm

As annoying as it has been that leaders haven't more thoughtfully prepared for a set of economic measures to enact in a disaster such as this, it's even more annoying that they seem unable to put aside philosophical political concerns to do whatever is needed to create as much stability as can reasonably be created. Very disappointing so far, but hopefully they come together quickly on common sense measures that help real people and mitigate moral hazard. There are hints that is likely the case.
Last edited by 9-5 Suited on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Teague » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:11 pm

gold99xx wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:57 pm
50 Percent-off the ATH is going to happen. I got a tip that dow 10K was the bottom. I am 100 percent equities, so this will continue to be fun for a while!
Shhh. Dow 10k was supposed to be a secret! Now everybody knows!
Semper Augustus

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by 9-5 Suited » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:14 pm

Teague wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:11 pm
gold99xx wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:57 pm
50 Percent-off the ATH is going to happen. I got a tip that dow 10K was the bottom. I am 100 percent equities, so this will continue to be fun for a while!
Shhh. Dow 10k was supposed to be a secret! Now everybody knows!
Don't worry, the real tip was 8K and gold99xx is throwing everyone off the trail. Oh no! Now I messed it up. (I mean what a silly comment ... "I got a tip about the bottom of the market" ... this crisis has brought out so much insanity on this forum).

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by fredflinstone » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:14 pm

It's upsetting. I encourage everyone to spend some time offline and try not to think about money too much. Doing so helps me tune out the noise and stay the course.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by BionicBillWalsh » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:14 pm

yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:00 pm
Since when bogleheards start to watch the clock? :D

We still *could* open or close in green tomorrow, just saying.
That's adorable.
Saltwater has an amazing ability to wash away many of life’s troubles

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by baconavocado » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:14 pm

I'll get a new rebalance spreadsheet ready.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by livesoft » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 pm

The good news is that a 5% drop in the S&P500 nowadays is not even an RBD anymore since it has happened regularly lately.
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dreamrider » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:16 pm

LFKB wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:25 pm
Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Calling bottom this coming week?
I'm not calling anything, but I've got about $200k in bonds currently. I'm moving $50k of into equities when we reach 35% down from the highs (likely tomorrow) and then another $50k for each additional 5% we fall.
I'm doing something similar but this strategy didnt work so well when I bought Apple in 2019. I bought near the bottom, doubled my investment in a year but left 5x on the table. Would of been better to do a lump sum. For 2020, I'm going to wait until all this breaker loss is done with, then push all in. Hopefully it's somewhere near -75% ATH.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Pikel » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:18 pm

-20% tomorrow. Let's get this over with.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by UpperNwGuy » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 pm
The good news is that a 5% drop in the S&P500 nowadays is not even an RBD anymore since it has happened regularly lately.
Is there a new official definition of a real bad day?

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 pm

The bailout package in 2008 was voted down at first as well. Dow dropped 7% the day after.

https://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/bailout/

[OT comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

The good news is that TARP passed a few days later and we had the bull run of a lifetime.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by 9-5 Suited » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:22 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 pm
The good news is that a 5% drop in the S&P500 nowadays is not even an RBD anymore since it has happened regularly lately.
It really was a surreal experience to look at VTI the other day and say "oh nice, it's only down 4.6%, things are stabilizing a bit."

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by livesoft » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:22 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 pm
livesoft wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 pm
The good news is that a 5% drop in the S&P500 nowadays is not even an RBD anymore since it has happened regularly lately.
Is there a new official definition of a real bad day?
No. The definition hasn't changed.
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LiveSimple » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:23 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Calling the bottom this coming week?
Welcoming this, if this happens :sharebeer
Will be done and path to rebound :sharebeer

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dru808 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:24 pm

Awesome
75/25 - schk, schd, vigi / govt

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Wiggums » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:25 pm

LFKB wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:22 pm
Stocks were poised to extend losses Monday after posting their worst week since the financial crisis, as government action to combat the coronavirus pandemic faced a stalemate in Congress.

On Sunday evening, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled more than 900 points while Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell 5%, triggering an automatic shock absorber.

Full Article
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 895917001/
I’m not surprised. The markets are forward looking. The global health crisis solution has not been identified. The USA went from 8th to third place in two days. The states are competing with each other supplies and tests. The press conferences lack sny detail. Seven states still allow large gatherings. The longer this goes on, the greater the economic impact.

Did you have a question?

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:27 pm

I'm not speculating about future legislation. I'm just questioning the assumption that tonight's futures action will determine tomorrow's closing NAVs.

What if both houses of Congress come to an agreement with the White House on a third phase fiscal measure during market hours?

PJW

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Wiggums » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:29 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 pm
The bailout package in 2008 was voted down at first as well. Dow dropped 7% the day after.

https://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/bailout/

[OT comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

The good news is that TARP passed a few days later and we had the bull run of a lifetime.
You expect a bull run with an on going global health crisis?

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by DonIce » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm

I predict that markets will continue to go down as long as the number of cases continues going up exponentially. As long as the trend is exponential, people will continue to be surprised with the turns of events every day, even though anyone can look at a graph and see the exponential trend. Humans are fundamentally ill-equipped to deal with exponentials.

Stimulus packages may help the market recovery once it starts, but people will continue panicking as events happen faster than they expect, as they are sure to do. The number of confirmed US cases has doubled in the past 48 hours.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Wiggums » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:35 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:27 pm
I'm not speculating about future legislation. I'm just questioning the assumption that tonight's futures action will determine tomorrow's closing NAVs.

What if both houses of Congress come to an agreement with the White House on a third phase fiscal measure during market hours?

PJW
An agreement would likely be seen as a positive, but it would not resolve the health crisis or rehire my family members.

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LFKB
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LFKB » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:38 pm

gold99xx wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:57 pm
50 Percent-off the ATH is going to happen. I got a tip that dow 10K was the bottom. I am 100 percent equities, so this will continue to be fun for a while! Stay the course? Hold! Hmm when the SP 500 is gutted cause 300 of the companies have debt and crap balance sheets, I wonder how all of us bogleheads will feel holding TSM and SP500 when it is down 60 percent in real and paper losses ( for some ). Anyone going to rethink when we are at Feb19 2020 levels hopefully in 2025? I am of course doing nothing, but only time will tell if this was the correct strategy. Could THIS be the one time in my life when things NEVER recover? Who knows... I know one thing for sure, I know nothing.
“50 Percent-off the ATH is going to happen.”

Also, “I know nothing”

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:38 pm

Wiggums wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:29 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 pm
The bailout package in 2008 was voted down at first as well. Dow dropped 7% the day after.

https://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/bailout/

Nancy Pelosi was Speaker of the House back then as well.

History repeating itself.

The good news is that TARP passed a few days later and we had the bull run of a lifetime.
You expect a bull run with an on going global health crisis?
March 9th 2009 was the bottom for the markets back then. Go back and read the news headlines on that day and let me know what good news came out to juice the markets back up.

I’ll save you the time - there wasn’t any.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Kenkat » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm

It’s gonna be Dow 5,000. Bill Gross will be vindicated!
Last edited by Kenkat on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:41 pm

DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
...
Stimulus packages may help the market recovery once it starts, but people will continue panicking as events happen faster than they expect, as they are sure to do. The number of confirmed US cases has doubled in the past 48 hours.
Which is mostly because of increased testing capacity. People who were infected, but not conclusively tested, were not counted in the confirmed US number. Now more of them will be.

I am not disputing that the actual number of cases in the US is greatly increasing, with the latest estimates being each infected person will, on average, infect 2.3 - 2.5 other people. That is indeed an exponential curve.

I'm in favor of increased testing capacity, and also of increased care capacity and increased Personal Protection Equipment, PPE, and increased ventilator availability. The latter three are becoming issues in places.

I'm also in favor, even if it's inconvenient for me, I'm not saying for anybody else, I am also in favor of doing what we can to, a term we've all learned recently, flatten the curve so the healthcare system can cope.

It's inconvenient for each of us, unless any of us becomes seriously ill from the virus.

We know that will happen.

PJW

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Hyperchicken » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm

DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
I predict that markets will continue to go down as long as the number of cases continues going up exponentially.
"Good" thing is, exponential growth cannot continue for very much longer. From March 11th to March 21st, the number of US cases increased from 1205 to 23709 (source), which averages to 34% daily growth.

Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.

What the market is going to do is at this point anyone's guess, of course.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:43 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:38 pm

March 9th 2009 was the bottom for the markets back then. Go back and read the news headlines on that day and let me know what good news came out to juice the markets back up.

I’ll save you the time - there wasn’t any.
This is the key that everyone is missing. The only way there is a eureka moment with a clear signal for the market to reverse course is if someone comes out with a treatment using household products that changes things overnight. More realistically the situation will get worse and worse, but the variability in outcomes will subside enough that the market can start to recover. Even in hindsight it is unlikely to be clear what changed.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:44 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm

"Good" thing is, exponential growth cannot continue for very much longer. From March 11th to March 21st, the number of US cases increased from 1205 to 23709 (source), which averages to 34% daily growth.

Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.

What the market is going to do is at this point anyone's guess, of course.
To be fair the exponential growth you are really measuring is more heavily driven by the rate of test production and implementation than anything else, and I'd wager that growth was a good deal ahead of the virus itself.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by whodidntante » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:49 pm

Kenkat wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm
It’s gonna be Dow 5,000. Bill Gross will be vindicated!
Somewhere, Dan Mahowny is smiling. Not here on Bogleheads, of course, but somewhere.

Rat_Race
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Jan 13, 2008 10:02 pm

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Rat_Race » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:50 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
I predict that markets will continue to go down as long as the number of cases continues going up exponentially.
"Good" thing is, exponential growth cannot continue for very much longer. From March 11th to March 21st, the number of US cases increased from 1205 to 23709 (source), which averages to 34% daily growth.

Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.

And how many dead?

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