Ben Felix on market crashes

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Liveware Problem
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Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Liveware Problem »

I sometimes watch Ben Felix on youtube and personally I find his advice well balanced and very much in line with Bogleheads philosophy. Apologies if this has been posted before, I searched and checked the front page. I have no views on, or interest in, the services I am sure he provides.

I especially enjoyed this talk about market crash and the narrative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PYsVkPtcXk

Regards
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watchnerd
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

+1000!

bump bump bump


(even if it's Canadian ;) )
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alpine_boglehead
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by alpine_boglehead »

Really worth watching, thanks for posting.

Really mind-boggling to think that through all the bad things that happened in the last 110 years (world wars, epidemics, all kinds of crises), things recovered and got better and delivered good returns to stock holders - including all the drops and bad years.

If I'd lived through it, I'd probably have been most frightened by the Cuban missile crises, by orders of magnitude more than I am now.
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watchnerd
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

alpine_boglehead wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:23 pm Really worth watching, thanks for posting.

Really mind-boggling to think that through all the bad things that happened in the last 110 years (world wars, epidemics, all kinds of crises), things recovered and got better and delivered good returns to stock holders - including all the drops and bad years.

If I'd lived through it, I'd probably have been most frightened by the Cuban missile crises, by orders of magnitude more than I am now.

It's because bad things happen that stocks give excess returns.
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lostdog
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by lostdog »

Great video! Thanks for posting.

This kind of stuff, including the wise bogleheads puts me at ease.
Random Walker
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Random Walker »

Simply a great video! Can’t recommend it highly enough.

Dave
garlandwhizzer
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by garlandwhizzer »

1+

I echo other's comments. Thanks for posting this great video by Ben Felix that offers solid reputable advice for nervous investors at a difficult time.

Garland Whizzer
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by puc_ytpme »

Thanks for taking the time to post this!
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baconavocado
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by baconavocado »

Excellent advice, thanks for posting.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Outstanding video. That guy is great.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Prokofiev »

While I agree it is a good video, I'm not so sure about the research that he talks about.

After a large market decline of 50% (!) or more, the data show a large rebound effect.
But isn't that obvious? If we define the event as being "over" at the market bottom, it
is obvious that the market CANNOT go negative or that would not be the end of the event.
Once at the bottom, it can only go up. How much? He doesn't mention. Over what time frame?
How long to eclipsing the previous high?

How do we know when the downturn is over?
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

very well done. forwarded it to my brother who is experiencing his first market crash and not really enjoying it.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by J295 »

Good video. Thanks
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Schlabba
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Schlabba »

Ben Felix is great. I agree with almost all of his messages.
The only thing I don't like so much is his conviction that value and small cap will outperform. There is a video where he discusses his own portfolio, he advises others to go with a total market fund and he himself goes for value and small cap.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by livesoft »

This is a video about behavioral finance without mentioning the term. Also missing the "10 best" meme rears its head.

So I enjoyed the video. It's just reminder.

BTW, there is no way that anyone buying on Monday (tomorrow) will have bought at the market high. There is no prediction involved in that statement at all. So sometimes one can be absolutely assured of not buying at the market high.
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Blueskies123
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Blueskies123 »

alpine_boglehead wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:23 pm Really worth watching, thanks for posting.

Really mind-boggling to think that through all the bad things that happened in the last 110 years (world wars, epidemics, all kinds of crises), things recovered and got better and delivered good returns to stock holders - including all the drops and bad years.

If I'd lived through it, I'd probably have been most frightened by the Cuban missile crises, by orders of magnitude more than I am now.
This is true for the USA but be careful of survivorship bias. This statement is not true if you invested in Germany, Russia, China, and many other countries.
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winterfan
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by winterfan »

Yes! Love this video. It's nice to see someone level headed.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by acegolfer »

Prokofiev wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:29 pm While I agree it is a good video, I'm not so sure about the research that he talks about.

After a large market decline of 50% (!) or more, the data show a large rebound effect.
But isn't that obvious? If we define the event as being "over" at the market bottom, it
is obvious that the market CANNOT go negative or that would not be the end of the event.
Once at the bottom, it can only go up. How much? He doesn't mention. Over what time frame?
How long to eclipsing the previous high?

How do we know when the downturn is over?
Glad to see someone with critical thinking.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Leesbro63 »

Thank you for posting this.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

Prokofiev wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:29 pm

How do we know when the downturn is over?
In the moment, you can't.

The research is based on historical data.
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Prokofiev
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Prokofiev »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:04 am
Prokofiev wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:29 pm

How do we know when the downturn is over?
In the moment, you can't.

The research is based on historical data.
Here is my historical research.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w5XLP8TQg2g/ ... e+1789.png

Notice all the dips? Notice what happens immediately after those dips?

Every time. For over 230 years. Research finished . . .
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

Prokofiev wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:36 am
Here is my historical research.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w5XLP8TQg2g/ ... e+1789.png

Notice all the dips? Notice what happens immediately after those dips?

Every time. For over 230 years. Research finished . . .
Yes, the market has an upward slope over history.

But we all know this.

I guess I don't understand the new insight or point you're trying to make?
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GaryA505
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by GaryA505 »

alpine_boglehead wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:23 pm Really worth watching, thanks for posting.

Really mind-boggling to think that through all the bad things that happened in the last 110 years (world wars, epidemics, all kinds of crises), things recovered and got better and delivered good returns to stock holders - including all the drops and bad years.

If I'd lived through it, I'd probably have been most frightened by the Cuban missile crises, by orders of magnitude more than I am now.
During the Cuban missile crisis I remember my mother telling me that we were all going to die.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by seychellois_lib »

Prokofiev wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:29 pm While I agree it is a good video, I'm not so sure about the research that he talks about.

After a large market decline of 50% (!) or more, the data show a large rebound effect.
But isn't that obvious? If we define the event as being "over" at the market bottom, it
is obvious that the market CANNOT go negative or that would not be the end of the event.
Once at the bottom, it can only go up. How much? He doesn't mention. Over what time frame?
How long to eclipsing the previous high?

How do we know when the downturn is over?
I would argue the Cuban missile crisis did not end. The "crisis" ended "nuclear armed missiles deployed to Cuba" but he underlying plague "nuclear weapons development. manufacture, growth did not end and continues to some extent to this very day. So I think his point remains salient. But I think you are also right. It is impossible to predict when the market believes it is over.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by seychellois_lib »

delete
Last edited by seychellois_lib on Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

GaryA505 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:38 am

During the Cuban missile crisis I remember my mother telling me that we were all going to die.
Dang! Thanks mom!

How old were you at the time?
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by seychellois_lib »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:53 am
GaryA505 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:38 am

During the Cuban missile crisis I remember my mother telling me that we were all going to die.
Dang! Thanks mom!

How old were you at the time?
I, for one, was 12 year old and at Military School in LA. We all thought we were going to be drafted. It was pretty intense in the adult world as I recall.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

seychellois_lib wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:55 am

I, for one, was 12 year old and at Military School in LA. We all thought we were going to be drafted. It was pretty intense in the adult world as I recall.
You thought you were going to be drafted as 12 year old?
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by whodidntante »

Ben Felix also recorded a podcast where he gave more details and specific examples. It's called the Rational Reminder podcast and it's available in whatever podcast app you currently use. If you use Android, I recommend the Google Podcasts app.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Crushtheturtle »

Great video, thanks.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by alpine_boglehead »

Blueskies123 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:24 am
alpine_boglehead wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:23 pm Really worth watching, thanks for posting.

Really mind-boggling to think that through all the bad things that happened in the last 110 years (world wars, epidemics, all kinds of crises), things recovered and got better and delivered good returns to stock holders - including all the drops and bad years.

If I'd lived through it, I'd probably have been most frightened by the Cuban missile crises, by orders of magnitude more than I am now.
This is true for the USA but be careful of survivorship bias. This statement is not true if you invested in Germany, Russia, China, and many other countries.
Very true, thanks for the reminder. But it's true not only for stocks. There's still several kilograms of mostly worthless colorful paper around from my great-grandparents - Austro-Hungarian war bonds. I guess life is risky, and so is investing. Luckily, as investors we have tools at our disposal for moderating risk. Diversification across countries, sectors, and across asset classes.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by GaryA505 »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:53 am
GaryA505 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:38 am

During the Cuban missile crisis I remember my mother telling me that we were all going to die.
Dang! Thanks mom!

How old were you at the time?
I was 11. It gave me nightmares, for a long time.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by GaryA505 »

What did the stock market do during the Cuban Missile Crisis?
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by 2pedals »

Great video, thanks for sharing.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by seychellois_lib »

The video was excellent.I forwarded to my adult children who, over the years, I have encouraged to be financially conservative, have a plan and to stay the course.

In a slightly different vein, I received a keyboard for Xmas and am practicing piano while at home. I came across this video which has nothing to do with investing except for the last bit starting at 13:09 which is not about investing either but, nevertheless, very relevant to this conversation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNgzHEGeHqc
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by seychellois_lib »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:56 am
seychellois_lib wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:55 am

I, for one, was 12 year old and at Military School in LA. We all thought we were going to be drafted. It was pretty intense in the adult world as I recall.
You thought you were going to be drafted as 12 year old?
When you are 12 you have no idea what to think. This is what the older boys were saying.There were not many adults in the room.

Sound familiar?
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Crushtheturtle »

whodidntante wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:58 am Ben Felix also recorded a podcast where he gave more details and specific examples. It's called the Rational Reminder podcast and it's available in whatever podcast app you currently use. If you use Android, I recommend the Google Podcasts app.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by over45 »

I would like to know what Ben Felix recommended his clients do 2 months ago. Does anyone know?
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by watchnerd »

seychellois_lib wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:52 pm
When you are 12 you have no idea what to think. This is what the older boys were saying.There were not many adults in the room.

Sound familiar?
That's a fascinating little sidebar on a big event in American history.

Thanks for sharing.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by sergeant »

GaryA505 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:38 am
alpine_boglehead wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:23 pm Really worth watching, thanks for posting.

Really mind-boggling to think that through all the bad things that happened in the last 110 years (world wars, epidemics, all kinds of crises), things recovered and got better and delivered good returns to stock holders - including all the drops and bad years.

If I'd lived through it, I'd probably have been most frightened by the Cuban missile crises, by orders of magnitude more than I am now.
During the Cuban missile crisis I remember my mother telling me that we were all going to die.
LOL, that made me miss my mom. She parented the same way.
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by mrspock »

Great video. Thanks for sharing!
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Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Post by Forester »

His videos are very good but he is pushing a doctrine. I mean he can say that the markets were "pricing in risk" but in reality, it was 50% that and 50% market participants c*****g themselves.
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