I am up 7%!

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Topic Author
Elysium
Posts: 3285
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

I am up 7%!

Post by Elysium »

Since Jan 1, 2009 to as of yesterday close, my personal returns show that I am up 7% annually.

We were staring into the abyss on Dec 31st, 2008, gloom & doom were everywhere, economy and stock marked appeared to be headed towards great depression 2, if not that then a very slow and painful recovery, with possibilities of many crashes in the coming years. There was an election and a regime change, trillions of dollars were put to work, fed cut rates many times, and had to go on a QE campaign that lasted many months. Several big corporations needed bailouts by Government, many others needed to be rescued by other big corporations with capital.

If someone told me on Jan 1st, 2009 that our portfolio will earn a modest 5% to 6% returns over the next 10 years, I would have gladly taken that. Instead, what we received was close to 10% returns since then until the end of 2019. We became complacent, perhaps adjusted to the new reality of 10% plus returns from balanced portfolios. We forgot we were only expected to earn 5% to 6%, and that would have made us happy.

Many of us are watching our profits evaporate, and worry when it will come back. We forget that we already have our profits, we just don't realize that was enough to make us happy back when this all started.

This will also get over soon one day. Equity risk premium is earned over such hard times. We have to look down and figure out what is enough.

Once again, I am expecting a modest 3% to 4% returns from our portfolio over the next 10 years, that will be enough to meet our future needs. Our priority is to get through these difficult times, not the immediate returns from our portfolio.
Last edited by Elysium on Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
rasta
Posts: 204
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:29 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by rasta »

so you have monetized your gains?

what will your return be if s&p5oo falls to 1700?
rbaldini
Posts: 1436
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:20 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by rbaldini »

It's a fair point to make. Anyone who has been investing longer than 3 years or so has still benefitted on the whole. Who knows what happens from here, but 3 years isn't long for most investors.
Bfwolf
Posts: 2053
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 11:19 am

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by Bfwolf »

rasta wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:46 pm so you have monetized your gains?

what will your return be if s&p5oo falls to 1700?
OP's returns would be worse if the S&P falls to 1700. If it falls to 1000, it will be really awful! But if it rises to 4000, it will be great. What's your point?

I'm sorry, but your post rubbed me the wrong way. Suggesting the OP's gains aren't meaningful because the OP hasn't converted them to cash is ridiculous. The current market value is the current market value.
Topic Author
Elysium
Posts: 3285
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by Elysium »

rasta wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:46 pm so you have monetized your gains?

what will your return be if s&p5oo falls to 1700?
Would be still profitable, we were discussing S&P 500 at 600 back then, and bond king Bill Gross famously called Dow 6000 (never happened).
Topic Author
Elysium
Posts: 3285
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by Elysium »

I made this post to show everyone that we must not forget that sometimes excess returns are there to be given away, we shouldn't count on them being there, instead get used to being satisfied with lower expectations from equities.

We built up some excess, now gave some of it back, this will continue. Anyone who has been investing long enough already has made gains, anyone who started lately is in a great position to buy equities at lower prices.
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10734
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by MotoTrojan »

Bfwolf wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:52 pm
rasta wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:46 pm so you have monetized your gains?

what will your return be if s&p5oo falls to 1700?
OP's returns would be worse if the S&P falls to 1700. If it falls to 1000, it will be really awful! But if it rises to 4000, it will be great. What's your point?

I'm sorry, but your post rubbed me the wrong way. Suggesting the OP's gains aren't meaningful because the OP hasn't converted them to cash is ridiculous. The current market value is the current market value.
If OP sold then immediately re-bought it would count but as-is they’re paper gains /s.
averagedude
Posts: 1331
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by averagedude »

I was up 25% in 2019. Actually I didn't because I didn't realize the gain.
Xrayman69
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:52 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by Xrayman69 »

Lesson reenforced, over the long run despite a huge pullback the market is still up depending on your time frame.

My time frame only dates back to 2006 for the start of my investment period. Still ahead and will still stay the course. Have another 10-15 year horizon.
Chaconne
Posts: 215
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:18 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by Chaconne »

I understand your point in posting this, Elysium. In fact you made me check my own performance, and coincidentally, I too am up 7% over the same period (7.2% to be exact). You helped me appreciate the success I've had, despite the current upheavals and gloominess.
pshonore
Posts: 6993
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:21 pm

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by pshonore »

1/1/09 was almost the bottom of the Big Crash. And there's nothing wrong with using that as a starting point, but I bet your numbers will be significantly different if you use 1/1/10 or 1/1/11 as the start.
mike_in_ny
Posts: 42
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:48 am

Re: I am up 7%!

Post by mike_in_ny »

I appreciate this post -- was not sure what to expect when I read the title.

I've been buy and hold through it all, and looking at the Vanguard site, my 10 year return
3/1/10 to 3/20/20 has been 8.1%. I'll take it!

Thanks for being an optimist -- we need more of that these days.
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