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Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 8:39 am
by JoMoney
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 8:24 am Another interesting piece on this topic:

“Opinion: Dud stock picks, bad industry bets, vast underperformance — it’s the end of the Warren Buffett era
Published: May. 15, 2020, 8:00 a.m. EDT
The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway seems to prefer the S&P 500 to his own company’s stock“

https://apple.news/AG2w8e_g0S7-EKpIGcNYytg
Meh... Buffett's style has been declared out-dated before. I'm sticking to the advice he's offered, but I wouldn't sell him short either. I do think there are headwinds for BRK stock in an era where the company is already so large, and the "B" shares opened up the stock to be easily traded. It will be both more difficult for BRK as a company to find large enough investments to move the needle, and more difficult for BRK stock owners to have any advantage from the stock itself being undervalued.
The author of that article seems to suffer from the "magic pockets" delusion about where dividends come from:
Berkshire won’t spend any cash to pay a dividend, while it’s happy to collect dividends from the companies it owns. Even a modest dividend yield would have helped Berkshire shareholders narrow the gap with the S&P 500 over the past 11 years.
You can't take the cash out of the companies pocket to pay dividends, and expect the underlying value not to fall.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 10:20 am
by firebirdparts
Saw an article today about how his era is over. But in terms of performance, I think 10 or 15 years is enough that we should all be able to understand that they can't do it any more. It's been a long time since they actually did anything good.

It's not that they're no good, it's just the quality of their special opportunities is reduced. They are now having to compete directly with the Federal Reserve, and that's temporary, but it's pretty stiff competition.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 8:05 pm
by 7eight9
Looks like dumping the airlines was just the beginning ...

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) said on Friday it has sold much of its stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), despite the billionaire’s assurance that the banking sector was not a “primary worry” for him during the coronavirus pandemic.

In a regulatory filing detailing its U.S.-listed investments as of March 31, Berkshire said its Goldman stake fell 84% to 1.9 million shares, from 12 million at year-end, with the stake’s market value dropping to $297 million from $2.76 billion. ...

Berkshire sold its remaining small stakes in the insurer Travelers Cos (TRV.N) and oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX.N), and tweaked several holdings. Its stake in Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) was unchanged, though the stock’s price fell 47%.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-inve ... SKBN22R3DL

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 7:08 pm
by Leesbro63
It sounds to me like WB is "backdoor" admitting that he can no longer beat the S&P500.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 7:12 pm
by Crushtheturtle
"Oracle"

lol

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
by SteadyOne
7eight9 wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 8:05 pm Looks like dumping the airlines was just the beginning ...

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) said on Friday it has sold much of its stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), despite the billionaire’s assurance that the banking sector was not a “primary worry” for him during the coronavirus pandemic.

In a regulatory filing detailing its U.S.-listed investments as of March 31, Berkshire said its Goldman stake fell 84% to 1.9 million shares, from 12 million at year-end, with the stake’s market value dropping to $297 million from $2.76 billion. ...

Berkshire sold its remaining small stakes in the insurer Travelers Cos (TRV.N) and oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX.N), and tweaked several holdings. Its stake in Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) was unchanged, though the stock’s price fell 47%.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-inve ... SKBN22R3DL
It may relate to Goldman looking for a huge buy

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gol ... -resurface

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:25 pm
by anoop
OK, he's making moves.

First getting rid of the airlines, then the banks (including entire stake in $GS), then buying $GOLD, and now buying a $250M stake in Snowflake.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... 54363.html

I have no idea what Snowflake does, but looks like Buffett is finally heading to the casino after years of value investing.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:24 pm
by perfectuncertainty
He is in Omaha. And he sleeps soundly.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:42 pm
by abuss368
perfectuncertainty wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:24 pm He is in Omaha. And he sleeps soundly.
That was actually good.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:43 pm
by abuss368
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:25 pm OK, he's making moves.

First getting rid of the airlines, then the banks (including entire stake in $GS), then buying $GOLD, and now buying a $250M stake in Snowflake.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... 54363.html

I have no idea what Snowflake does, but looks like Buffett is finally heading to the casino after years of value investing.
Interesting that Berkshire is again investing internationally - now in Japan.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:21 am
by Whakamole
theorist wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:50 pm
Waba wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:25 am I sold my berkshire stock because I believe that Warren Buffet's life expectancy is severly shortened by the current pandemic and I expect that his untimely demise -IF it were come to pass- would have a big negative impact on berkshire stock price. At that point you might be looking at an attractive entry point.
He is 89; Charlie is 96. There may be a brief move in prices if something happens to one or both of them (which I hope is no time soon, but the odds are against me). But you’d have to think a forward-looking market will have priced in a change of command at Berkshire in the near future.
People have been saying WB and CM are old for a long time.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:46 am
by petulant
Whakamole wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:21 am
theorist wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:50 pm
Waba wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:25 am I sold my berkshire stock because I believe that Warren Buffet's life expectancy is severly shortened by the current pandemic and I expect that his untimely demise -IF it were come to pass- would have a big negative impact on berkshire stock price. At that point you might be looking at an attractive entry point.
He is 89; Charlie is 96. There may be a brief move in prices if something happens to one or both of them (which I hope is no time soon, but the odds are against me). But you’d have to think a forward-looking market will have priced in a change of command at Berkshire in the near future.
People have been saying WB and CM are old for a long time.
Well, WB is 90, so it may be that he has been old for a long time. :wink:

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:42 am
by anoop
Normally I stay away from IPOs, but since Warren has bought Snowflake, I decided to register for their IPO. Let's see if I get awarded any shares though.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:37 pm
by ImUrHuckleberry
Whakamole wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:21 am
theorist wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:50 pm
Waba wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:25 am I sold my berkshire stock because I believe that Warren Buffet's life expectancy is severly shortened by the current pandemic and I expect that his untimely demise -IF it were come to pass- would have a big negative impact on berkshire stock price. At that point you might be looking at an attractive entry point.
He is 89; Charlie is 96. There may be a brief move in prices if something happens to one or both of them (which I hope is no time soon, but the odds are against me). But you’d have to think a forward-looking market will have priced in a change of command at Berkshire in the near future.
People have been saying WB and CM are old for a long time.
96 is the new 80.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:51 pm
by flaccidsteele
Unless a person owns Berkshire Hathaway stock, who cares what Buffett is doing? 🤷‍♂️

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:54 pm
by PoultryMan
They are sheltering in place most likely as they are very vulnerable. Nobody lives forever. Hopefully they stay safe

I do get a kick out of all the articles about how they have lost their touch. Man, I would never bet money against those two. Its the equivalent of getting into a ring with Mike Tyson today and thinking "Hey, hes over 50 now, what could it hurt?" :D

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:09 pm
by batpot
MathWizard wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:51 pm Coronavirus has killed just under 9 thousand people.

Malaria kills more than a million a year, mostly children.

A big difference is that Coronavirus is hitting the developed world, while malaria and a whole host of other diseases affect just the third world.
I'm seeing stats of half a million for Malaria, and Covid now approaching 1M.

Regardless, March was WAY too early to make any generalizations about this pandemic.
Kind of amusing this hold thread, in retrospect.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:41 pm
by happydaze412

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:49 pm
by anoop
abuss368 wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:43 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:25 pm OK, he's making moves.

First getting rid of the airlines, then the banks (including entire stake in $GS), then buying $GOLD, and now buying a $250M stake in Snowflake.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... 54363.html

I have no idea what Snowflake does, but looks like Buffett is finally heading to the casino after years of value investing.
Interesting that Berkshire is again investing internationally - now in Japan.
Thanks for pointing that out. I missed that one. But it’s so focused on the 5 financial services companies.
Mitsubishi Corp. (MSBHF)
Mitsui & Co. (MITSY)
Sumitomo Corp. (SSUMY)
Itochu Corp. (ITOCY)
Marubeni Corp. (MARUY)

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:35 pm
by flaccidsteele
I can only imagine how Berkshire Hathaway will be run once Munger and Buffett are gone...

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just made a fast $1 billion

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:40 pm
by anoop
flaccidsteele wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:35 pm I can only imagine how Berkshire Hathaway will be run once Munger and Buffett are gone...

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just made a fast $1 billion
Like a late stage VC!

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:25 am
by abuss368
I had hoped that I would see Warren Buffett on CNBC more! He is sitting on a war chest of cash. I would bet planning his next move.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:04 pm
by 000
I wonder how many dips Warren can sit out before BRK shareholders revolt?

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:11 pm
by abuss368
000 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:04 pm I wonder how many dips Warren can sit out before BRK shareholders revolt?
I have thoughts that as well. I'll also add: how high is the cash going to keep building before pressure to start paying a dividend.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:17 pm
by 000
abuss368 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:11 pm
000 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:04 pm I wonder how many dips Warren can sit out before BRK shareholders revolt?
I have thoughts that as well. I'll also add: how high is the cash going to keep building before pressure to start paying a dividend.
I am curious about that too.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:46 pm
by rotLobster
InvestInPasta wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:12 pm
Jim180 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:58 pm He's probably a bit unsure right now since he said in an interview that he's never seen a situation like this.
I wonder in what way he has never seen a situation like this. He was born in 1930, when he was 10 years old he had to go through the 2nd world war for 5 years.
Hasn't he said he bought his 1st stock when he was 11, hence he bought his 1st stock in 1941 when Japan attacked US on Pearl Harbor.
If I had to choose I would prefer the COVID-2019 rather than a world war.

And think when he had to go through the Cuban missile crisis in the 60s, then iperinflation and oil crisis in the 70s, the flash crash in 87, the dot com crisis in 2000 where he was also badly underperforming the market, then the 2009 crisis.
there hasnt ever been a situation much like this. more people will die in this country from covid that died in wwII. during wwII the country came together, folks supported each other. the anger and stress currently has no parallel except the civil war. the coming election is the most contentious since lincoln won his second term after sherman took atlanta. the market is crazy. you have large numbers of folks out of work while others are making out like bandits. the covid thing will last 2 years. we are 1/4 the way through. its run will be like 1918 which took two years. it will kill certain types of businesses, airlines, travel, theaters, entertainment production. and the fed is pumping money like crazy into the economy.

this is a 'new thing' in this country. parts are like the run up to the civil war, parts are like 1918 and parts are like the depression. im in defensive positions more or less but thats where i was before this began due to my age. and im in the network/telecom/cloud business and we are crazy busy. but the are businesses going under around me.

who knows what buffet is doing. my guess is he's keeping his powder dry, waiting for the election, waiting for vaccines whilst scratching his head.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:28 pm
by legio XX
happydaze412 wrote: Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:41 pm Buying into Barrick Gold
https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.bu ... 1029508939
Something weird with this link. Have to close browser to get back to B'heads. ??

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:45 pm
by abuss368
000 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:17 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:11 pm
000 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:04 pm I wonder how many dips Warren can sit out before BRK shareholders revolt?
I have thoughts that as well. I'll also add: how high is the cash going to keep building before pressure to start paying a dividend.
I am curious about that too.
Berkshire in some respects feels like an index fund. I still would not own an individual stock. Sadly who knows how the stock will perform after Mr. Buffett no longer is guiding the company.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:09 pm
by flaccidsteele
abuss368 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:11 pm
000 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:04 pm I wonder how many dips Warren can sit out before BRK shareholders revolt?
I have thoughts that as well. I'll also add: how high is the cash going to keep building before pressure to start paying a dividend.
Warren Buffett can’t just “pay a dividend”. He isn’t "hoarding cash" either. The size of Berkshire Hathaway’s fixed income portfolio (which includes cash) is matched to BRK's insurance float liabilities. This growth of insurance liabilities explains the growth of the fixed income pile

Notice the ratio in the last column. Buffett has kept it around 100% since 2007. He’s actually keeping LESS cash relative to insurance float liabilities today than in the past

Berkshire Hathaway is absolutely under no pressure to pay a divided imo

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylerhasson/ ... 8067411968

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:12 pm
by Fortune Seeker
abuss368 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:45 pm Berkshire in some respects feels like an index fund. I still would not own an individual stock. Sadly who knows how the stock will perform after Mr. Buffett no longer is guiding the company.
People are saying it may actually spike up when Buffett and Munger stop working at Berkshire since that will remove risk of them dying suddenly or making costly mistakes in judgement due to their mental health worsening.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:14 pm
by abuss368
Fortune Seeker wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:12 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:45 pm Berkshire in some respects feels like an index fund. I still would not own an individual stock. Sadly who knows how the stock will perform after Mr. Buffett no longer is guiding the company.
People are saying it may actually spike up when Buffett and Munger stop working at Berkshire since that will remove risk of them dying suddenly or making costly mistakes in judgement due to their mental health worsening.
That is an interesting perspective.

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:43 am
by Valuethinker
batpot wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:09 pm
MathWizard wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:51 pm Coronavirus has killed just under 9 thousand people.

Malaria kills more than a million a year, mostly children.

A big difference is that Coronavirus is hitting the developed world, while malaria and a whole host of other diseases affect just the third world.
I'm seeing stats of half a million for Malaria, and Covid now approaching 1M.

Regardless, March was WAY too early to make any generalizations about this pandemic.
Kind of amusing this hold thread, in retrospect.
Third World is not a used term any more. "The Global South".

How bad this is in developing countries is not yet clear. Lacking medical resources they have relied on strict quarantines.

Places like Vietnam and Sierra Leone have no deaths. India? Not looking good.

This thing is pretty certain to kill 1 million people. Whether it is more than that depends on a whole host of factors.