Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

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Details
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Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Details » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:38 am

Hi all,
I received Bob's Marketimer for over 25 years, enjoyed it, but when he went off the air, I dropped the newsletter.
But, they never took me off the mailing list, I just can't see the newsletter or alerts.
So, I know he put out an Alert this morning, I don't know if he said it's time to buy or time to sell.
Anyone care to clue me in?

Details

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Details
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Details » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:38 pm

Just bumping.

Islander
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Islander » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:05 pm

Another Brinker fan here. Started listening to his radio program in early '90s. Learned about indexing and Vanguard from him. Also subscribed to his newsletter for a number of years. Your post reminded me of his March 2000 Alert which saved my bacon.

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tipswatcher
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by tipswatcher » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:09 pm

I am amazed that Bob Brinker is still alive. I checked, and his Wiki says he lives in Henderson, Nevada.

I was a big fan of his radio show, because he pushed common-sense investments, mostly Vanguard index funds, and was a big proponent of I Bonds when those had 3.0%+ fixed rates. His "market timing" rarely involved any timing, he just recommended set portfolio allocations. He became famous for calling for a sell before the Internet crash, and then a buy at about the right time afterward. That wasn't totally luck, but stock market valuations had gotten way elevated before his sell call.

I feel he was a guiding force for me in shaping an investment program, through the great years of the 1982 to 2000 bull market.

His newsletter wasn't worth the money, in my opinion. I took it for a while. But I loved the guy as an educator.
TIPS: Perfect investment for imperfect times?

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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Stinky » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:11 pm

Details wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:38 am
Hi all,
I received Bob's Marketimer for over 25 years, enjoyed it, but when he went off the air, I dropped the newsletter.
But, they never took me off the mailing list, I just can't see the newsletter or alerts.
So, I know he put out an Alert this morning, I don't know if he said it's time to buy or time to sell.
Anyone care to clue me in?

Details
Inquiring minds want to know.

Any BHs still pay for Brinkers alerts?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

Mr.BB
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Mr.BB » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:14 pm

Even though he gave out good sound advice, I believe he completely missed calling the 2008 crash. It's very hard to be right all the time on both ends of the equation.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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Details
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Details » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:50 pm

Islander wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:05 pm
Another Brinker fan here. Started listening to his radio program in early '90s. Learned about indexing and Vanguard from him. Also subscribed to his newsletter for a number of years. Your post reminded me of his March 2000 Alert which saved my bacon.
I started listening to him fairly early, late 80s or early 90s. He got my started with Vanguard and no load mutual funds.
I also took big advantage of his 2000 alert.
Somebody will tell us what today's alert said.

Drevor1
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Drevor1 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:07 pm

I subscribe, but would not post what he says and risk getting sued. Plus it is not fair to the other paying subscribers...sorry!

I still think the newsletter is a steal for $200/year just to get his perspective. He was DEAD ON when to buy back in after the great recession, as well as the last few great buying opportunities up to the most recent market peak. I'm looking forward to what will hopefully be another great future signal since I am sitting on 50% cash now!

Retired1809
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Retired1809 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:55 am

I can understand why you would like to know the content of his latest Bulletin.

Jack Bogle was a frequent guest of his radio program. Chuck Schwab also appeared as a guest. The list of his guests is quite impressive. He retired from being tied down to a weekly radio show a couple of years ago. Who can blame him? He long ago achieved "critical mass," the land where there are no alarm clocks. I'm grateful for his market letter.

The first time I ever heard his radio show was a cold winter's night back in the 1980s when an ice storm had knocked out our electricity and I was awake literally keeping the wood stove going to heat our house. I only had my Sony Walkman for entertainment and tuned into to WBT, 1110 in Charlotte to hear the rerun of his afternoon show. This was around 2:00 am and I heard this guy talking about how smart it was to to buy i-bonds with a base rate of 3.00% (plus the inflation factor). I immediately realized that this was a straight shooter. There's no way that a radio host can make a buck recommending iBonds. He gave out detailed instructions for buying them without commission from many commercial banks. After my initial introduction, he won me over as a listener - not at 2 a.m. but at time of the live broadcasts 4:06 pm until 7:00 pm each weekend. He deserves my praise.

And if you want to know the content of his copyright protected newsletter, visit his website. He takes credit cards.I do not believe it would be proper (or legal) for anyone to disclose the content of his newsletter here.

dsmil
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by dsmil » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:12 am

My father gets his monthly newsletter. He did pick the exact day of the low in February 2016 and gave a buy signal. Other than that, I think he's usually for dollar cost averaging.

TravelGeek
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:18 am

Retired1809 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:55 am

And if you want to know the content of his copyright protected newsletter, visit his website. He takes credit cards.I do not believe it would be proper (or legal) for anyone to disclose the content of his newsletter here.
You can’t copy/paste copyrighted material, but I am curious - do you have to sign a non disclosure agreement when you subscribe to his (or other) newsletter that prevents you from talking about it at all? (I see no T&C at https://secure.bobbrinker.com/secure/purchase.asp)

I used to listen to his show fairly regularly in the 90s, but never subscribed. Just learned for free.
Last edited by TravelGeek on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

jpmorganfunds
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by jpmorganfunds » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:21 am

Drevor1 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:07 pm
I subscribe, but would not post what he says and risk getting sued.

I am sitting on 50% cash now!
Sell! :D

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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Stinky » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:15 am

jpmorganfunds wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:21 am
Drevor1 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:07 pm
I subscribe, but would not post what he says and risk getting sued.

I am sitting on 50% cash now!
Sell! :D
Buy!! :D
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:28 am

Retired1809 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:55 am
I can understand why you would like to know the content of his latest Bulletin.

Jack Bogle was a frequent guest of his radio program. Chuck Schwab also appeared as a guest. The list of his guests is quite impressive. He retired from being tied down to a weekly radio show a couple of years ago. Who can blame him? He long ago achieved "critical mass," the land where there are no alarm clocks. I'm grateful for his market letter.

The first time I ever heard his radio show was a cold winter's night back in the 1980s when an ice storm had knocked out our electricity and I was awake literally keeping the wood stove going to heat our house. I only had my Sony Walkman for entertainment and tuned into to WBT, 1110 in Charlotte to hear the rerun of his afternoon show. This was around 2:00 am and I heard this guy talking about how smart it was to to buy i-bonds with a base rate of 3.00% (plus the inflation factor). I immediately realized that this was a straight shooter. There's no way that a radio host can make a buck recommending iBonds. He gave out detailed instructions for buying them without commission from many commercial banks. After my initial introduction, he won me over as a listener - not at 2 a.m. but at time of the live broadcasts 4:06 pm until 7:00 pm each weekend. He deserves my praise.

And if you want to know the content of his copyright protected newsletter, visit his website. He takes credit cards.I do not believe it would be proper (or legal) for anyone to disclose the content of his newsletter here.
I bonds were not introduced until the late 90's. Must have been very cold that night..... :D
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

Jim180
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Jim180 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:30 pm

Brinker is good at identifying market bottoms but not so good at market tops. This is the second bear in a row he failed to get subscribers out. Of course just like 2008 he can claim this was a "Black Swan" that nobody could have predicted. The fact is MOST bear markets are caused by Black Swans and that is why it's futile for Brinker or anyone else try to predict them.

Retired1809
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Retired1809 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:57 pm

Correction: It must have been EE Savings Bonds that Brinker was talking about in the 80s. Again, my point was that here was a guy on the radio recommending something that could not have possibly paid a kickback. That's what impressed me. Sorry to have written iBonds in my original post; he talked about these as well but obviously later. Thank you for your correction.

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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Stinky » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:11 pm

Jim180 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:30 pm
Brinker is good at identifying market bottoms but not so good at market tops. This is the second bear in a row he failed to get subscribers out. Of course just like 2008 he can claim this was a "Black Swan" that nobody could have predicted. The fact is MOST bear markets are caused by Black Swans and that is why it's futile for Brinker or anyone else try to predict them.
Best as I can tell, Brinker hasn’t issued a “sell” since 2000. That’s 20 years, and multiple bear markets, ago. (Unless the current “alert” is a sell, which would be several weeks and hundreds of S&P points late)

For a service that calls itself “Marketimer”, there’s precious little “market timing” going on in Brinker’s newsletter.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

arf1410
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by arf1410 » Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:23 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:18 am
Retired1809 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:55 am

And if you want to know the content of his copyright protected newsletter, visit his website. He takes credit cards.I do not believe it would be proper (or legal) for anyone to disclose the content of his newsletter here.
You can’t copy/paste copyrighted material, but I am curious - do you have to sign a non disclosure agreement when you subscribe to his (or other) newsletter that prevents you from talking about it at all? (I see no T&C at https://secure.bobbrinker.com/secure/purchase.asp)

I used to listen to his show fairly regularly in the 90s, but never subscribed. Just learned for free.
I would also like to better understand this comment. How is it any different than posting "I read in the newest Forbes magazine that XYZ industry is a good [or bad] investment?

Dottie57
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Dottie57 » Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:50 pm

arf1410 wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:23 pm
TravelGeek wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:18 am
Retired1809 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:55 am

And if you want to know the content of his copyright protected newsletter, visit his website. He takes credit cards.I do not believe it would be proper (or legal) for anyone to disclose the content of his newsletter here.
You can’t copy/paste copyrighted material, but I am curious - do you have to sign a non disclosure agreement when you subscribe to his (or other) newsletter that prevents you from talking about it at all? (I see no T&C at https://secure.bobbrinker.com/secure/purchase.asp)

I used to listen to his show fairly regularly in the 90s, but never subscribed. Just learned for free.
I would also like to better understand this comment. How is it any different than posting "I read in the newest Forbes magazine that XYZ industry is a good [or bad] investment?
If I had paid for the subscription, not sure I would want to share Material or information I had paid for either.

garlandwhizzer
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by garlandwhizzer » Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:03 pm

I think Mr. Brinker believes a buying opportunity may present itself at some point in the future of this bear market for investors who are looking for a good market point to increase equity exposure. Picking market tops and bottoms is a very tricky business regardless of who's doing it. It's always easy to see in retrospect what you should have done, like increase equity in March 2009, but picking that point in real time is tough. We're going into a recession IMO but we're also going to combat it with massive fiscal stimulus and hyper-aggerssive FED policy. It is the interplay between these two forces that will determine the length and depth of the recession.

I fully believe that we'll get over this crisis just as we did with the financial collapse of 2007-9, but when that will happen and how robust it will be are unknown to me at least. Vanguard's Joe Davis predicted a deep but short recession with recovery starting late this year and into next year. The market tends to anticipate recovery and start going up months before the recovery actually happens. That anticipation could have been what drove the market massively higher last week, the largest market gains in a single week in decades right on the heels of the all time high for weekly unemployment claims. It seems paradoxical but that I suspect anticipation is what is going on. The question is: does the market have another big leg down to test or even break through the old lows that optimistic investors are not seeing. I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question with certainty. Acting on it one way or the other is a bet that may or may not work. With a properly balanced portfolio you don't have to make those bets unless you want to. You can do nothing and ride this thing out.

Garland Whizzer

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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Stinky » Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:24 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:03 pm
I think Mr. Brinker believes a buying opportunity may present itself at some point in the future of this bear market for investors who are looking for a good market point to increase equity exposure. Picking market tops and bottoms is a very tricky business regardless of who's doing it.
Yes, market timing is a very tricky business. That is, impossible.

Brinker runs a newsletter called “Marketimer”. He puts out periodic “buying” alerts.

However, he’s not been so good on the “sell” side. He totally missed the 2007-9 market slide. And I believe that he also missed the 2018 mini-bear and the 2020 bear.

Market timing is hard. And Brinker has proven that he doesn’t do it very well - no matter what the title of his newsletter is.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Robert The Bruce
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Robert The Bruce » Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:09 pm

Stinky wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:24 pm
Market timing is hard. And Brinker has proven that he doesn’t do it very well - no matter what the title of his newsletter is.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the QQQ call. After the 2000 crash, Brinker recommended subscribers buy the QQQ at $80 to take advantage of a quick bounce back. Problem was the bounce never happened and he never closed out the recommendation. Here’s a recap:

https://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.bl ... worst.html
The stingy man pays the most. - Ray Magliozzi

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bzargarcia
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by bzargarcia » Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:39 am

Robert The Bruce wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:09 pm
Stinky wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:24 pm
Market timing is hard. And Brinker has proven that he doesn’t do it very well - no matter what the title of his newsletter is.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the QQQ call. After the 2000 crash, Brinker recommended subscribers buy the QQQ at $80 to take advantage of a quick bounce back. Problem was the bounce never happened and he never closed out the recommendation. Here’s a recap:

https://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.bl ... worst.html
Just read some of the comments on the QQQ call. Wow! Do people today have the same exceptions for market timing? Maybe I'll request a free issue, but I can't fathom anything of value coming from it. Website is crazy too, like a time machine to the 90s.

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Stinky
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Stinky » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:29 am

bzargarcia wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:39 am
Robert The Bruce wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:09 pm
Stinky wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:24 pm
Market timing is hard. And Brinker has proven that he doesn’t do it very well - no matter what the title of his newsletter is.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the QQQ call. After the 2000 crash, Brinker recommended subscribers buy the QQQ at $80 to take advantage of a quick bounce back. Problem was the bounce never happened and he never closed out the recommendation. Here’s a recap:

https://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.bl ... worst.html
Just read some of the comments on the QQQ call. Wow! Do people today have the same exceptions for market timing? Maybe I'll request a free issue, but I can't fathom anything of value coming from it. Website is crazy too, like a time machine to the 90s.
Yes, the QQQ call was an absolute disaster for anyone who followed Brinker's advice.

The Honey Bee blog cited above is an excellent resource for all things Brinker. It tells the true story about Brinker and his recommendations. Among other things, there are a lot of comments about folks who were stung by the QQQ call.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

garlandwhizzer
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by garlandwhizzer » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:49 pm

Like everyone else who tries to predict the markets future, Bob's record is mixed. No one gets it right all the time.

Garland Whizzer

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Bluce
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Re: Bob Brinkers Marketimer Alert

Post by Bluce » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:53 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:49 pm
Like everyone else who tries to predict the markets future, Bob's record is mixed. No one gets it right all the time.

Garland Whizzer
TRANSLATION: Buying or selling based on a coin flip is as good as any other method of market timing.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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