Is it time to GET OUT?

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Jesteroftheswamp
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Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Jesteroftheswamp »

I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
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sperry8
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by sperry8 »

If these are long term holdings (i.e., greater than 20 years) not only should you hold on... you should buy more when stocks are/were down 25%-30%.
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282
Keenobserver
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Keenobserver »

simple..hold what u have and buy more
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Noobvestor
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Noobvestor »

Take a deep breath, tune out the noise and read a book <- probably the best advice I can give you.

Longer term, you might want to assess your allocation and risk tolerance in light of your current emotional state. For instance, if you have a stock-heavy portfolio (it sounds like you might), you might consider the benefits of bond diversification.

Really, the best thing you can do for yourself is to avoid panic and market timing. Beyond that, there is a lot of good reading on this website and in the book recommendation lists. Now is a bad time to make sudden changes, but a good time to assess your jitters.

viewtopic.php?t=79939
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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sperry8
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by sperry8 »

Think of it this way... you (at 34) seem to have no less than a 30 year time horizon. Kudos for getting started early! Who cares what the prices do between now and when you retire? What you care about is what they'll be at in 30 years. There has never been a down 30 year period in the US stock markets (dividends reinvested). Stay the course. Stick to your plan.
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282
260chrisb
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by 260chrisb »

Relax. Take a deep breath, stop looking at your portfolio. What do you need the profits for and why are you worried at 34? Are you living off this money? Have a plan, understand your risk tolerance, and stick to it. You'll be fine. Assuming this is retirement; just keeping buying as you would any "normal" week.
mortfree
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by mortfree »

34??

Stay invested. Keep adding.

Move along, nothing to see here.
MoneyMarathon
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by MoneyMarathon »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating
Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pmI am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left
Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pmliterally just hold on for dear life?
It's a downplayed fact that a lot of investors get more risk tolerant with age. Two things happen:

(a) They have more experience "looking at [their] portfolio fall" and are numb to the movements. The "yawn" effect.

(b) They are "playing with the house's money." A lot of investors psychologically anchor their investment balance to their contribution amount and are uncomfortable when their gains so far are little to negative.

Unfortunately, the beginning investor doesn't have the experience and, just by pure math, are on the knife's edge of being "down." It takes about 10-20 years until you're no longer frequently on the knife's edge of being "down" due to volatility.

Yes, you should stop worrying about it. Use whatever psychological trick you can.

Accepting these losses on paper and waiting it out will build good habits. Good habits build lifelong wealth.

Selling will put you at risk of being an old man one day yelling at the clouds for stocks being overvalued and hoarding gold, bitcoin, TIPs, whatever. After passing by a lifetime's worth of equity gains.
retire2022
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by retire2022 »

op

you should buy more esp dips, best time went through five major crashes, 1987, 2000, 2008, 2018, and now 2020

34-67 final retirement age=33 years

contributions $19,500 (401k, 403b, or 457)

$19,500x33years= $643,500 contributions

at 6%= $2,012,083.21 projected nest egg

check my math:

http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/co ... ulator.htm
Last edited by retire2022 on Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
lukestuckenhymer
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by lukestuckenhymer »

I'm 34 as well. This is a blip. Stay the course, rebalance and TLH, but do not "GET OUT," unless you want to have less money in the long term. Revisit your AA, if it seems like you're carrying too much risk for your tolerance (sounds like you might).
Last edited by lukestuckenhymer on Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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climber2020
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by climber2020 »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
What's your asset allocation? If recent events are making you nervous, you should probably have more bonds in the future. The time to make that change is when everything's going great and all the "why not 100% stocks?" threads start showing up every single day.
yohac
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by yohac »

I recommend not checking your balances for awhile. Thinking in terms of "OMG, I lost x in ONE MONTH!" is not conducive to good decisions.
bugleheadd
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by bugleheadd »

do you need the money now?
Chaconne
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Chaconne »

You're thirty-FREAKING-four years old! (Sorry, just jealousy rearing its ugly head.)

You've got the potential to keep earning and investing for 30+ years. By that time, this will not even be a blip on your ever-upward wealth curve. IF you stay the course. Heck, if you stay the course, you may well choose to retire long before those 30+ years are up. My best to you!
JD2775
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by JD2775 »

Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this...

Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60?
BogBod
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by BogBod »

JD2775 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:54 pm Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this...

Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60?
Mine would and I am >50
Cat Herder
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Cat Herder »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
I'm the same age as you. Yes, hold f-ing fast. Keep dumping in as much money as you can into the market, keeping enough in reserve to cover your potential needs if you lose your job or whatever.

More importantly than questioning investments, question expenditures such as a home (which is NEVER an investment despite what some may contend) or anything else beyond basic survival needs.
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
You're barely 5 years in and you are worried about your portfolio falling???? You might not be suited for investing at all.
Also, what is this "research"? You set your investments contributions and then move on with living life.

You are obsessed with the wrong aspect of your financial life. I would focus on my career, job, health, and emergency fund.

I am glad I completely ignored 2000 and 2008. I contributed regularly, and focused on my job and personal life. If I hadn't done that, I wouldn't (fixed typo) be considering retirement age at 50.

Find an asset mixture that makes sense, and then walk away. Time is your friend. You are your own worst enemy.
Last edited by Unladen_Swallow on Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Noobvestor
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Noobvestor »

JD2775 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:54 pm Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this...

Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60?
45? Yes. 50? Probably. 55? I'd ask what their allocation, glide path and overall plan was, then evaluate.
Last edited by Noobvestor on Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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thx1138
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by thx1138 »

JD2775 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:54 pm Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this...

Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60?
I’m about 45 and would like to retire around 55. I’m not selling anything out, am continuing contributions 100% to equity funds in my 401k and would recommend the same to anyone else in a similar situation. For reference my AA is 75/25 at the moment and likely to stay that way through any early retirement.

I turned 34 right at the 2008/9 collapse. Was 100/0 then. Stayed the course and continued contributions all to equity funds. Turned out 34 was a delightful time to have a crash. Wish stocks had stayed lower longer but I have nothing really to complain about.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Heck....I'm 63. All I've done is some tax loss harvesting and watched my AA for rebalance band crossing (which has not occurred). Why would I sell? That would be the classic "buy high, sell low". That's not how it works.
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sambb
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by sambb »

It was time to get out at Dow 29000 (new virus unleashed on humanity, large risk, china shut down, but the west not doing much except for worrying about a cruise ship) , and many threads here warned it, and there was lots of risk.

Much harder to say right now. Already down. Risk lowered, as the market is pricing in the unique new virus which has been unleashed on humanity.

In the end, at one point risk wasnt even noticed by many. Now it is well known.

I wouldnt get in and out on timing. I would look at risk tolerance and never take too much or too little risk. Always be comfortable with the risk.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by bf0123 »

I really appreciate this forum in tumultuous markets. I think it was roughly 1999 or 2000 that I started 'lurking', recognized the wisdom of the advice, and have stuck to the main Boglehead mantas ever since.

The other mantra that helps me is (paraphrased) Warren Buffett's concept about investing in the S&P for the long-term being a bet on the future of America itself. Since I continue to believe this country's best days are ahead of it, staying invested in its future is much easier.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by abuss368 »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
Stop looking at it and tune out the financial porn. Stay the course and buy stocks or rebalance if they are under your asset allocation.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

thx1138 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:02 pm
JD2775 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:54 pm Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this...

Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60?
I’m about 45 and would like to retire around 55. I’m not selling anything out, am continuing contributions 100% to equity funds in my 401k and would recommend the same to anyone else in a similar situation. For reference my AA is 75/25 at the moment and likely to stay that way through any early retirement.

I turned 34 right at the 2008/9 collapse. Was 100/0 then. Stayed the course and continued contributions all to equity funds. Turned out 34 was a delightful time to have a crash. Wish stocks had stayed lower longer but I have nothing really to complain about.
I'm 45 as well. We still almost 100/00. In 2000 I was a young pup and and still learning the ropes, and in 2008 I just focused on my career. I ignored the stock market.

We intend to evaluate retirement at 50. We are open to delaying it if we don't feel comfortable or things change. Our plans are flexible both in time and in our spending flexibility. We have lost plenty in the past few days. But right now my focus is on peace of mind, health, and family. We will adapt to everything else.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
Ferdinand2014
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
If you are asking the question, you should not own stocks are change your allocation to less stocks.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett
Ferdinand2014
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Ferdinand2014 »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:59 pm
Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
You're barely 5 years in and you are worried about your portfolio falling???? You might not be suited for investing at all.
Also, what is this "research"? You set your investments contributions and then move on with living life.

You are obsessed with the wrong aspect of your financial life. I would focus on my career, job, health, and emergency fund.

I am glad I completely ignored 2000 and 2008. I contributed regularly, and focused on my job and personal life. If I hadn't done that, I would be considering retirement age at 50.

Find an asset mixture that makes sense, and then walk away. Time is your friend. You are your own worst enemy.
+1
Last edited by Ferdinand2014 on Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett
MotoTrojan
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by MotoTrojan »

I am putting in about 1/4th of my annual contribution a month right now in to funds that have fallen 30-40% YTD, I can't imagine selling. Maybe you should contribute to bonds to get a reduced AA if you are uncomfortable right now.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

JD2775 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:54 pm Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this...

Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60?
My replies might not be the same between every 34 yr old, or for every 45yr old either. But, without more information, I would recommend the same to the 34 and 45yr old retiring at 60. But there are many questions really...

I am a big proponent of being debt free early in life. I would err on the side of being debt free with aggressive investments (plus Emergency fund) rather than large debt and conservative investments.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
angelescrest
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by angelescrest »

Bruh...it was way, way worse in 2008. I mean, it felt like the entire financial system was going to utterly collapse, blood was running in the streets, the sky was falling. It was Armageddon.

Then, we had the most amazing bull run, and people started talking about retiring early, and things were glorious. Except for the folks who cashed out at the bottom 12 years ago. Which one would you prefer to be?
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

If you are wanting to get out, then I suggest you get a plan. I highly doubt your plan would be to get out every time the market drops. Please ignore this panic selling and have faith that we are smart people and will beat the coronavirus very soon! :sharebeer
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Mactheriverrat »

@OP
What was your thoughts on your investments from late September 2018 correction to April 2019?

Yes you can get out but how much have you lost so far. It isn't a loss until you sell.

IMHO.
We seen the bottom are near the bottom of this correction with a slow, slow move back up. One can keep listening to the media regurgitate the same news over and over and over.
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KlangFool
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by KlangFool »

OP,

My AA ranges from 70/30 to 60/40. My AA makes sure that I "buy low and sell high". Is your AA 100/0?

My 60/40 AA makes sure that I sell stock in a bull market and buy stock in a bear market. I do not need to time the market.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.

Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take at least SOME earnings off the table? The index funds I own are for long term, I am only 34 years old, however should I sell to take the little profits I have left or literally just hold on for dear life?
Five years? Let's look at the chart for total U.S. stock market back to 1/1/15:

Image

source: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

So since that time the market's now up (as of today) 29.46%. Are those the "earnings" you're talking about taking "off the table"?

By the way, the time to have taken your earnings would have been on 2/14/20 (that's the highest point on the chart over the past 5 years) the market was up 78.26%. So wouldn't that have been the time to have asked if you should get out?

Funny thing is, you got into stocks for the higher returns, right?

Did you not understand the reason for the higher returns is due to taking higher risk?

Did you think you would just get high returns without taking risk?

The risk has shown up now. But in order to get the future returns, you have to get through the risky times. How badly do you want the future returns?

You've got to stay the course and get through the risk to get the return.

If you don't want the risk, you won't get the returns (you'd be in savings/money market/cds with lower risk and lower returns).

You can't have high returns without high risk. Wanting doesn't make it so.

Finally, if "looking at your portfolio fall is excruciating" then the simple solution is to stop looking at it. Problem solved. Only look at your portfolio when it's up, not down, and you'll feel much better.
It's "Stay" the course, not Stray the Course. Buy and Hold works. You should really try it sometime. Get a plan: www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
jpmorganfunds
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by jpmorganfunds »

Yes before it's TOO LATE
typical.investor
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by typical.investor »

jpmorganfunds wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:27 pm Yes before it's TOO LATE
I would ignore the above. Maybe it was a joke.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by KlangFool »

OP,

If you cannot "Sleep Well At Night" (SWAN) with your current AA, you are taking on too much risk. Time to change your AA.

KlangFool
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by dru808 »

You’ve gone 5 years buy n hold. Seemed easy when it was going up, huh?

Drop your aa to a more reasonable allocation, stop panicking or not.
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Bama12
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Bama12 »

BUY BUY BUY
Caduceus
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Caduceus »

Do you have income coming in? Keep on buying. Buy as much as you can.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by drk »

Most of your posting history is asking whether you should add a tech fund, a small-cap growth fund, an emerging markets fund, etc., because you wanted to take on more risk for more reward. This is the risk that you wanted. Why the change of heart?
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by BolderBoy »

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:33 pm I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating.
This means your asset allocation isn't correct for your investing temperament.

What is your current AA?
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect
marielake
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by marielake »

I lost close to 60% in the 2008 drop. During that tine, I ended up moving some funds and new deposits to a safe TIAA-cref fund with a 3% guarantee rate. When market returned I regretted my decision and vowed to "stay the course" next time around. 12 years later, I am retired and watching my funds decline. Today I made my first move to add to equities in an attempt to get back to a 60/40 allocation. I'm waiting for a lower point to convert some funds to Roth. You are young. Pick an AA and stay with it. You have many years ahead.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by saintsfan342000 »

marielake wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:57 pm During that tine, I ended up moving some funds and new deposits to a safe TIAA-cref fund with a 3% guarantee rate.
Fixed income yielding 3%?! Where can I sign up?
Already impartial now
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Cubicle
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Cubicle »

You have not assessed your risk tolerance. That's the issue. Figure that firstly.

It is not time to get out. It's time to jump in even more.
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William4u
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by William4u »

I don't think of my holdings as being down at all. I've held my investments for many years, and I am way, way up overall. The S&P500 is still significantly up from where it was on Dec 21 2018, for example.
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Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

angelescrest wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:31 pm Bruh...it was way, way worse in 2008. I mean, it felt like the entire financial system was going to utterly collapse, blood was running in the streets, the sky was falling. It was Armageddon.
Depending on how we handle this, it could be society collapsing instead of the financial system.

Gotta admit I've never been this tempted to reallocate but I'm already late to the party.
Notsobad
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:16 am

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by Notsobad »

In 2007-2008 I stuck with the plan and now I am thankful that I did.
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greg24
Posts: 3942
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:34 am

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by greg24 »

Put your head down, go to work, and keep buying.

Find a way to increase your investing percentage.
BoggledHead2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:50 pm

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

you buy more and you stop checking the balance

what are you "getting out" for now? uo your savings rate, buy in as much as you can, and this will be a joke to you down the road.

you also need to change your asset allocation, since you clearly arent built for the 1 you have
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