How is this pandemic different than 2008?

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KlangFool
Posts: 19048
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
FoolMeOnce
Posts: 1024
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:16 am

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by FoolMeOnce »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:54 am 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic was completely different than the coronavirus, in that it affected young adults much worse than other groups. Shutting down schools was an appropriate step in that case. We know a lot more about how viruses are spread between people now and take preventative measures like washing hands, staying home when sick, covering coughs and sneezes, etc.
We know coronavirus infects kids, but so far it hasn't affected them much. But kids are a transmission vector. Kids in school share facilities, share supplies, play closely, pick their noses, are bad at washing hands, and are generally gross. (I know - I have two!) Schools amplify one's social connections by orders of magnitude. I don't just share germs with my family, friends, and coworkers, but now with my kids' schoolmates' parents and then those parents' friends and coworkers. Even though, thankfully, kids aren't getting extremely ill like older age groups, schools are great places for transmission. I've been dreading my kids' schools closing, but I've come around to thinking it is probably the right call. Hasn't happened yet.
Soon2BXProgrammer
Posts: 1617
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:30 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
I am in agreement, we are way past the "not a big deal" phase.
cbs2002
Posts: 26
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:10 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by cbs2002 »

The thing I remember most about 2008 was that it was a slow train coming. There were flashing red signals, sirens even, to anyone willing to read for months if not a year before Bear Stearns - and it took another couple months before the slide really started. The greed and lack of empathy that must have existed among institutional investors at the time is stunning to me in retrospect, because these were not stupid people taken off guard. I did not have nearly as much exposure to the market then as I do now, but I was reading the Economist regularly. There was a near-constant flow of information about structural problems and risk with CDSs, subprime lending, CDOs, etc. I remember never feeling surprised by anything that was happening.

This is a panic due to the idea that something you cannot see may kill you and your family and friends, and the economic consequences stem from that. Utterly unpredictable, while 2008 was entirely predictable.
BoggledHead2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:50 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

cbs2002 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:40 am The thing I remember most about 2008 was that it was a slow train coming. There were flashing red signals, sirens even, to anyone willing to read for months if not a year before Bear Stearns - and it took another couple months before the slide really started. The greed and lack of empathy that must have existed among institutional investors at the time is stunning to me in retrospect, because these were not stupid people taken off guard. I did not have nearly as much exposure to the market then as I do now, but I was reading the Economist regularly. There was a near-constant flow of information about structural problems and risk with CDSs, subprime lending, CDOs, etc. I remember never feeling surprised by anything that was happening.

This is a panic due to the idea that something you cannot see may kill you and your family and friends, and the economic consequences stem from that. Utterly unpredictable, while 2008 was entirely predictable.
Its “new”, and people are more attached to click bait /social media than ever
Kagord
Posts: 511
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:28 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Kagord »

cbs2002 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:40 am The thing I remember most about 2008 was that it was a slow train coming. There were flashing red signals, sirens even, to anyone willing to read for months if not a year before Bear Stearns - and it took another couple months before the slide really started. The greed and lack of empathy that must have existed among institutional investors at the time is stunning to me in retrospect, because these were not stupid people taken off guard. I did not have nearly as much exposure to the market then as I do now, but I was reading the Economist regularly. There was a near-constant flow of information about structural problems and risk with CDSs, subprime lending, CDOs, etc. I remember never feeling surprised by anything that was happening.

This is a panic due to the idea that something you cannot see may kill you and your family and friends, and the economic consequences stem from that. Utterly unpredictable, while 2008 was entirely predictable.
I'm going to add, and agree on the predictability, I think in 2005 to early 2008, most everyone knew it was a bubble. But watching your house value go up 10K every month, well, who wants to stop that? I remember a co-worker, in 2007, saying his 500K house was going to be worth 1.5M in 5 years, I'm going, do you know what the mortgage payment on that is, lol. You had flippers in a buying frenzy, in a no lose situation. And only going back 20 years to compute risk in the CDOs and protection derivatives, when there was data to go back 40-50 years, that was probably the biggest error.

I think this is somewhat similar, watching the 11 year bull market, price earnings ratios climbing to absurd levels, but who wants pricing to perfection to end? I also, think, had the COVID-19 not materialized, it would have continued.
decapod10
Posts: 800
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:46 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by decapod10 »

MWONE wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:50 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 am
MWONE wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:10 am
I guess it is a matter of perception. Yes, I do think it is being overhyped as compared to other viruses in the past, and the market is reacting accordingly. That said, I also realize I could be wrong and will keep an open mind and will follow all safety guidelines.
MWONE,

As I had said before, I do not care about the media at all.

As for you, do you believe that it is "just the flu" for everyone to shut down the schools, sports, and so on? This is unprecedented. We do not do this as compared to all other viruses. They could not be all crazy and caught up with some kind of hype.

KlangFool
No, I do not think this is "just the flu", I think this a new virus that needs to be dealt with. So far, I think the reaction is like dropping a bomb to kill a knat. The shutting down of EVERYTHING will lead to an economic fallout that in my opinion will be troubling. And now that the precedent has been set, is this how all future viruses will be handled? As others have said, we live in a world now that sometimes it is more important to cover your butt than to be criticized. But, as I said, I think it is important for those who might share my opinion to go forward as if this might be a new and different reality, and do what it takes to protect yourself and others.
I for one am glad I don't have to make these decisions. The problem is that for an epidemic as rapidly spreading as this, in order for an isolation policy to be effective, it has to be early and it has to be extreme. Education and hoping that people will do the right thing is not enough in my opinion. Half measures are near worthless when it comes to extremely contagious infectious disease. Even under mandatory isolation policies, people are notoriously non-complaint. During SARS, there was a mandatory quarantine in Toronto, and studies estimate that only 57% of people actually complied with it (which in itself can be an argument against it honestly).

If you believe that the difference between Wuhan case fatality rate of 5% vs 0.9% outside of China was due to strict and earlier isolation policies, that's a pretty huge deal. Say 10% of the US population contracts Covid19, which is about 32 million people (for reference, H1N1 ultimately thought to have infected around 60 million in the US based on CDC numbers). The difference between a 5% mortality and a 1% mortality is 1,280,000 lives. We are not talking about small numbers here.

On the flip side, as you mention, extreme isolation policies also have other big effects that have to be weighed also, both on the economy and people's personal lives.

The problem is there is no time to think or to do studies. There is no way to try something weaker, then switch to something stronger later on. You either have to do it or don't do it. You either need to drop the bomb or you don't. And there are arguments to be made for both sides.

And the problem is that if you drop the bomb and then it turns out that it wasn't too bad, there will be people who will ridicule you by saying it was unnecessary, even though it is possible that your actions were the reason everything turned out well. But it's also possible that your actions had nothing to do with the good outcome.

Unfortunately, probably the only way you get credit for being right is if you don't do anything and then 1,000,000 people die. Then you can say I told you so, but that's a high price to pay.

For your question about future viruses, it will depend on the individual situation. Different viruses have different characteristics, and need to be dealt with in different ways. H1N1 is different than SARS which is different than COVID19 which is different than the next one.
cbs2002
Posts: 26
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:10 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by cbs2002 »

Kagord wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:00 am You had flippers in a buying frenzy, in a no lose situation.
The flippers! I forgot about the flippers. That was insane. I still talk to people whose judgment about residential property as an investment is forever warped by the experience of the late 90s and 2000s. I'm fortunate to not be one of the millions who got stuck holding the bag.

Basically it seemed totally normal to put down less than 10K to buy a house on leverage, fix it up with no prior experience and somehow sell at a profit within months. Just writing that down makes me nervous.
whereskyle
Posts: 1293
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:29 am

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by whereskyle »

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
Soon2BXProgrammer
Posts: 1617
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:30 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:19 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
wait for round 2 then round 3, etc.

with the 1918 flu, it took many rounds through areas. especially with our global travel, this might not be a one and done sort of issue.
FoolMeOnce
Posts: 1024
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:16 am

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by FoolMeOnce »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:22 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:19 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
wait for round 2 then round 3, etc.

with the 1918 flu, it took many rounds through areas. especially with our global travel, this might not be a one and done sort of issue.
Hopefully we slow it down enough to buy time to develop and mass produce a vaccine.
MWONE
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:33 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

decapod10 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:12 am
MWONE wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:50 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 am
MWONE wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:10 am
I guess it is a matter of perception. Yes, I do think it is being overhyped as compared to other viruses in the past, and the market is reacting accordingly. That said, I also realize I could be wrong and will keep an open mind and will follow all safety guidelines.
MWONE,

As I had said before, I do not care about the media at all.

As for you, do you believe that it is "just the flu" for everyone to shut down the schools, sports, and so on? This is unprecedented. We do not do this as compared to all other viruses. They could not be all crazy and caught up with some kind of hype.

KlangFool
No, I do not think this is "just the flu", I think this a new virus that needs to be dealt with. So far, I think the reaction is like dropping a bomb to kill a knat. The shutting down of EVERYTHING will lead to an economic fallout that in my opinion will be troubling. And now that the precedent has been set, is this how all future viruses will be handled? As others have said, we live in a world now that sometimes it is more important to cover your butt than to be criticized. But, as I said, I think it is important for those who might share my opinion to go forward as if this might be a new and different reality, and do what it takes to protect yourself and others.
I for one am glad I don't have to make these decisions. The problem is that for an epidemic as rapidly spreading as this, in order for an isolation policy to be effective, it has to be early and it has to be extreme. Education and hoping that people will do the right thing is not enough in my opinion. Half measures are near worthless when it comes to extremely contagious infectious disease. Even under mandatory isolation policies, people are notoriously non-complaint. During SARS, there was a mandatory quarantine in Toronto, and studies estimate that only 57% of people actually complied with it (which in itself can be an argument against it honestly).

If you believe that the difference between Wuhan case fatality rate of 5% vs 0.9% outside of China was due to strict and earlier isolation policies, that's a pretty huge deal. Say 10% of the US population contracts Covid19, which is about 32 million people (for reference, H1N1 ultimately thought to have infected around 60 million in the US based on CDC numbers). The difference between a 5% mortality and a 1% mortality is 1,280,000 lives. We are not talking about small numbers here.

On the flip side, as you mention, extreme isolation policies also have other big effects that have to be weighed also, both on the economy and people's personal lives.

The problem is there is no time to think or to do studies. There is no way to try something weaker, then switch to something stronger later on. You either have to do it or don't do it. You either need to drop the bomb or you don't. And there are arguments to be made for both sides.

And the problem is that if you drop the bomb and then it turns out that it wasn't too bad, there will be people who will ridicule you by saying it was unnecessary, even though it is possible that your actions were the reason everything turned out well. But it's also possible that your actions had nothing to do with the good outcome.

Unfortunately, probably the only way you get credit for being right is if you don't do anything and then 1,000,000 people die. Then you can say I told you so, but that's a high price to pay.

For your question about future viruses, it will depend on the individual situation. Different viruses have different characteristics, and need to be dealt with in different ways. H1N1 is different than SARS which is different than COVID19 which is different than the next one.
Good points, thank you
mptfan
Posts: 6355
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by mptfan »

cbs2002 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:13 am Basically it seemed totally normal to put down less than 10K to buy a house on leverage, fix it up with no prior experience and somehow sell at a profit within months. Just writing that down makes me nervous.
Lol.
KlangFool
Posts: 19048
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:19 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
1) You can choose to believe the censored information coming from China.

2) Being told to go back to work as to actually going back to work are two different things.

3) In any case, we would know soon. We would know the answer by checking whether the Korean and Japan car factories are restarting their production.

KlangFool
User avatar
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 765
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by UpsetRaptor »

fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 pm Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
That's a function of lack of testing in USA, not healthcare quality. Developed countries will all have similar mortality rates for COVID19, subject to their respective age demographics, up to the point of the healthcare system not being overwhelmed. However, if one runs out of ICU beds, like Wuhan or Northern Italy, then mortality rate jumps.

Actually, mortality rate may be a decent proxy to estimate the number of infected in under-tested countries like the US.
Soon2BXProgrammer
Posts: 1617
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:30 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:26 am Hopefully we slow it down enough to buy time to develop and mass produce a vaccine.
One can hope/pray.
BoggledHead2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:50 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:22 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:19 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
wait for round 2 then round 3, etc.

with the 1918 flu, it took many rounds through areas. especially with our global travel, this might not be a one and done sort of issue.
Shame we haven’t made any medical or technological advances since 1918

Doomed
whereskyle
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by whereskyle »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:22 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:19 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am

I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
wait for round 2 then round 3, etc.

with the 1918 flu, it took many rounds through areas. especially with our global travel, this might not be a one and done sort of issue.
Shame we haven’t made any medical or technological advances since 1918

Doomed
While caution is of course warranted, panic and pessimism have never helped an investor.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:34 am While caution is of course warranted, panic and pessimism have never helped an investor.
My point is one of patience not panic. Only time will show us how this will unfold. We have a lot of uncertainty and no facts.
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 am
FoolMeOnce wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:26 am Hopefully we slow it down enough to buy time to develop and mass produce a vaccine.
One can hope/pray.
We can slow down this Coronavirus by social distancing.

KlangFool
halfnine
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by halfnine »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am ...
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods...
I don't know whether this risk will come to pass or not, but I do believe it is underappreciated right now.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:44 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:34 am While caution is of course warranted, panic and pessimism have never helped an investor.
My point is one of patience not panic. Only time will show us how this will unfold. We have a lot of uncertainty and no facts.
As I’ve said repeatedly, caution/precaution is important. Most people unfortunately can’t process this without manifesting into panic & hysteria.

I will not be attending the annual St Patrick’s Day party I normally would. I shower 2x / day. I work from home more. I wash my hands more thoroughly.

And I buy market downturns. Because while attention is warranted, mass hysteria is absolutely absurd.
jaguar3003
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by jaguar3003 »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:32 pm Folks,

If it is "just the flu", there will not be widespread quarantine across multiple countries around the world. So, it has to be a lot more than "just the flu".

KlangFool
Thank you for being a voice of reason. :sharebeer

It isn't the flu. It is more lethal and more infectious. Many people don't even know what the symptoms of the flu are (as most adults think it causes vomiting and diarrhea)!

Preliminary findings are showing that long-term lung damage can result in recovered patients.

SARS, another corona virus, caused damage to other organs, such as kidneys and the male reproductive system (due to the high number of ACE-2 receptors in those organs). Will CoVid-19 damage other organs? Possibly yes, and possibly no, but not something most people would want to roll the dice on.
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fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

UpsetRaptor wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 am
fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 pm Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
That's a function of lack of testing in USA, not healthcare quality. Developed countries will all have similar mortality rates for COVID19, subject to their respective age demographics, up to the point of the healthcare system not being overwhelmed. However, if one runs out of ICU beds, like Wuhan or Northern Italy, then mortality rate jumps.

Actually, mortality rate may be a decent proxy to estimate the number of infected in under-tested countries like the US.
If the lack of testing is partially due to the cost of getting tested,$5k charge by emergency room, then I would say this has everything to do with healthcare quality.
Maverick3320
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Maverick3320 »

fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
And the US has a much higher incidence of comorbidity factors than average, especially obesity and diabetes. Projections are that the CFR in the US are likely to be closer to the 3.1% in Italy than the 0.9% in South Korea due to the above and also the fact that the US healthcare system is inferior to those of both Lombardy and Korea.
Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
It has nothing to do with "socialized" medicine, if that's why you are implying. Germany decided to start testing earlier and more often than the US. I'm guessing the close proximity to a nation (Italy) that has completely quarantined itself had a lot to do with it.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Maverick3320 »

Dottie57 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:28 am 2008-2009 was caused by financial fraud and gambling.

Current situation is caused by a health scare which impacts human behavior. People are scared and it is reflected in our markets.

Fear for saving vs fear of death.

I’ve been to the local grocery store and there are no drastic shortages yet. No hand sanitizer, but plenty of tp. I plan to go early to shop for staples, meat, ingredients for casseroles I can prepare and freeze.
Not sure where you are, but everywhere here is out of toilet paper. It's even getting hard to find on Amazon.
decapod10
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by decapod10 »

Maverick3320 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm
Dottie57 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:28 am 2008-2009 was caused by financial fraud and gambling.

Current situation is caused by a health scare which impacts human behavior. People are scared and it is reflected in our markets.

Fear for saving vs fear of death.

I’ve been to the local grocery store and there are no drastic shortages yet. No hand sanitizer, but plenty of tp. I plan to go early to shop for staples, meat, ingredients for casseroles I can prepare and freeze.
Not sure where you are, but everywhere here is out of toilet paper. It's even getting hard to find on Amazon.
It's weird. Yesterday morning, our local grocery store was fine. Everything seemed normal, there was plenty of food on the shelves. By the evening, all the food was gone. Not sure what the tipping point was, something happened in the past 1-2 days that seemed to have triggered something
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fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

Maverick3320 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pm
fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm

I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
And the US has a much higher incidence of comorbidity factors than average, especially obesity and diabetes. Projections are that the CFR in the US are likely to be closer to the 3.1% in Italy than the 0.9% in South Korea due to the above and also the fact that the US healthcare system is inferior to those of both Lombardy and Korea.
Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
It has nothing to do with "socialized" medicine, if that's why you are implying. Germany decided to start testing earlier and more often than the US. I'm guessing the close proximity to a nation (Italy) that has completely quarantined itself had a lot to do with it.
Testing in Germany is free. In the USA, “the full battery” of testing amounts to at least $1,331 per person. Not sure about you, but I'm not choosing to get tested at that price. I don't think many millennials have that kind of money sitting around either. In my state, someone was recently charged 5k, by the emergency room, to be tested, even though the test was "free." It should also be noted that the CDC turned down free test kits from Germany, for 3 weeks, while it tried to figure out its own test. The decision severely delayed this countries response to the virus, sadly.
LiterallyIronic
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by LiterallyIronic »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:53 pm Folks,

You have a choice. You can assume that this is just a mass hysteria and everyone else in the world except you is crazy. And, they decided to destroy the economy/businesses/daily lives by quarantine and shut down schools, NBA, NCAA, MLB and so on. Or, this Coronavirus is more than "just the flu".

Your choice. Which one is more logical?

KlangFool
Like usual, I'm going to disagree with Klang. It's like the movie Men In Black, in which Agent K says, "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals." I'm going to keep with the status quo; everyone else is free to panic however they see fit.
Thesaints
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Thesaints »

Klang ain't a fool !

We can't yet say how serious this thing will turn out to be and its impact on financial markets. It may turn out to be relative benign, or something the likes of which we have never seen. Only someone oblivious can ignore the chance of the S&P going way down from here (I'm talking levels around 1,000).

Just think of it: if it is really very contagious (and everything makes us believe it is) and mortality is even 1% (and it could very well be higher) which employer can stand the risk of asking workers to show up ? That incidentally means Amazon fulfillment centers wouldn't be fulfilling anymore and even the USPS guarantees delivery only in case of snow, rain, heat, or gloom of night; pandemics are excluded.
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by UpsetRaptor »

fortfun wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:42 am
UpsetRaptor wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 am
fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 pm Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
That's a function of lack of testing in USA, not healthcare quality. Developed countries will all have similar mortality rates for COVID19, subject to their respective age demographics, up to the point of the healthcare system not being overwhelmed. However, if one runs out of ICU beds, like Wuhan or Northern Italy, then mortality rate jumps.

Actually, mortality rate may be a decent proxy to estimate the number of infected in under-tested countries like the US.
If the lack of testing is partially due to the cost of getting tested,$5k charge by emergency room, then I would say this has everything to do with healthcare quality.
Sure, that'd affect the reported case count. Not the actual mortality rate though.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:22 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:19 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:21 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
Soon2BXProgrammer,

Once China decided to quarantine half of her country one month ago, it ceases to be "not a big deal". Supply chain disruption will impact the whole world. It is no longer the same as in 2008. The Fed cannot print money and solve this problem. It is dependent on how fast China can restart the factories.

Now, Italy is adding to the supply chain disruption.

KlangFool
People in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, are already returning to work as of Wednesday. I don't see how this is more than a two-month slowdown in any country. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y03W
wait for round 2 then round 3, etc.

with the 1918 flu, it took many rounds through areas. especially with our global travel, this might not be a one and done sort of issue.
True. Round one of the 1918 flu wasn't that big of a deal. It was round 2 when the vast majority of deaths happened. China isn't out of the woods and they know it.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

Maverick3320 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pm
fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm

I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
And the US has a much higher incidence of comorbidity factors than average, especially obesity and diabetes. Projections are that the CFR in the US are likely to be closer to the 3.1% in Italy than the 0.9% in South Korea due to the above and also the fact that the US healthcare system is inferior to those of both Lombardy and Korea.
Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
It has nothing to do with "socialized" medicine, if that's why you are implying. Germany decided to start testing earlier and more often than the US. I'm guessing the close proximity to a nation (Italy) that has completely quarantined itself had a lot to do with it.
What you say is true, but I don't think there's any evidence it doesn't also have something to do with Germany's healthcare system. People in my local neighborhood facebook group here in Seattle have been complaining about availability and cost of tests, and that it is still difficult if not impossible to get tested at any price. That is ABSOLUTELY a healthcare quality problem.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
KyleAAA
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:54 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:44 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:34 am While caution is of course warranted, panic and pessimism have never helped an investor.
My point is one of patience not panic. Only time will show us how this will unfold. We have a lot of uncertainty and no facts.
As I’ve said repeatedly, caution/precaution is important. Most people unfortunately can’t process this without manifesting into panic & hysteria.

I will not be attending the annual St Patrick’s Day party I normally would. I shower 2x / day. I work from home more. I wash my hands more thoroughly.

And I buy market downturns. Because while attention is warranted, mass hysteria is absolutely absurd.
I haven't seen any signs whatsoever of panic or hysteria, even here in Seattle. Sure, stores are selling out of items needed for prolonged self-isolation at home, but that's because people actually are self-isolating at home for what is sure to be at least a few weeks. It's a 100% rational response. No sign of panic or hysteria at all, not even slightly.
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greg24
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by greg24 »

I've found that those proclaiming "mass hysteria" are the ones who are themselves in hysterics.
BoggledHead2
Posts: 562
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:20 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:54 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:44 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:34 am While caution is of course warranted, panic and pessimism have never helped an investor.
My point is one of patience not panic. Only time will show us how this will unfold. We have a lot of uncertainty and no facts.
As I’ve said repeatedly, caution/precaution is important. Most people unfortunately can’t process this without manifesting into panic & hysteria.

I will not be attending the annual St Patrick’s Day party I normally would. I shower 2x / day. I work from home more. I wash my hands more thoroughly.

And I buy market downturns. Because while attention is warranted, mass hysteria is absolutely absurd.
I haven't seen any signs whatsoever of panic or hysteria.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... cna1158066

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... s-51737030

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... Type%3Damp

K.
KyleAAA
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:23 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:20 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:54 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:44 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:34 am While caution is of course warranted, panic and pessimism have never helped an investor.
My point is one of patience not panic. Only time will show us how this will unfold. We have a lot of uncertainty and no facts.
As I’ve said repeatedly, caution/precaution is important. Most people unfortunately can’t process this without manifesting into panic & hysteria.

I will not be attending the annual St Patrick’s Day party I normally would. I shower 2x / day. I work from home more. I wash my hands more thoroughly.

And I buy market downturns. Because while attention is warranted, mass hysteria is absolutely absurd.
I haven't seen any signs whatsoever of panic or hysteria.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... cna1158066

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... s-51737030

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... Type%3Damp

K.
Let's address these one by one, shall we?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... cna1158066

Fights happen in stores all the time. Just yesterday a person was shot over a dispute over a parking spot. There's no evidence this has anything to do with coronavirus whatsoever. Fail.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... s-51737030

As demonstrated above, this isn't indicative of panic. It is a 100% rational response to the situation. Fail.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... Type%3Damp

See above. Fail.

Let's examine the definition of "mass hysteria" and see if it applies here.

mass hysteria
noun Psychology.
a condition affecting a group of persons, characterized by excitement or anxiety, irrational behavior or beliefs, or inexplicable symptoms of illness.

Nope, doesn't apply here. Certainly there is probably some anxiety, but not affecting the mass of people.

Let's make sure our interpretation is correct by examining the definition of anxiety.

Anxiety disorder
A mental health disorder characterized by feelings of worry, anxiety, or fear that are strong enough to interfere with one's daily activities
Examples of anxiety disorders include panic attacks, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder.
Symptoms include stress that's out of proportion to the impact of the event, inability to set aside a worry, and restlessness.
Treatment includes counseling or medications, including antidepressants.

Nope, we definitely don't have that. Open and shut case.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by LadyGeek »

This thread has run its course and is locked (derailed, no longer focusing on financial aspects).

Discussions can continue on specific topics here:

- Market impacts: Coronavirus and the market

- Preparations: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

- Everything else: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general discussion).
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