How is this pandemic different than 2008?

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fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
And the US has a much higher incidence of comorbidity factors than average, especially obesity and diabetes. Projections are that the CFR in the US are likely to be closer to the 3.1% in Italy than the 0.9% in South Korea due to the above and also the fact that the US healthcare system is inferior to those of both Lombardy and Korea.
Yes, Germany has twice the number of Covid19 cases as the USA but 7 times less deaths than the USA. Guess that's what a good health care system gets you.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:26 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:40 pm

No, the answer is not obvious. Do you remember the H1N1? Why not the mass hysteria?
There was: Markets tanking, schools closing, “state of emergency” declared, travel restrictions

There just wasn’t social media spreading the hysterics nonstop
Uhhhh, all the currently mainstream social media sites were popular in 2009.
Uhhh,

https://ourworldindata.org/rise-of-social-media

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=so ... qyaPIRhaAJ

Rise / prevalence of social media in every aspect of life has changed significantly in the last decade ... and not for the benefit of mankind
Facebook and Twitter were both pervasive in 2009, especially in the developed world. Not sure what hole you’ve been living in.
There’s a difference between “existing as a company” and rapidly increased number of users between 09-Present ... which is crystal clear in the chart with pretty colors

Have a good night
MWONE
Posts: 45
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

fortfun wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:21 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:50 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
Do you think the Covid-19 will result in more deaths than the common flu from this point forward?
According to this article, yes. You probably won't like it because it appears in the Washington Post. However, a similar article appeared in the conservative WSJ today. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/c ... story.html
Again, I am just trying to understand all of the FACTS. I live in the D.C. area, I read the Post. If you think everything the Post reports are FACTS, without an agenda, you are naive.
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fortfun
Posts: 2760
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:36 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
And the US has a much higher incidence of comorbidity factors than average, especially obesity and diabetes. Projections are that the CFR in the US are likely to be closer to the 3.1% in Italy than the 0.9% in South Korea due to the above and also the fact that the US healthcare system is inferior to those of both Lombardy and Korea.
So old fat people will die? It’s a shame they had no health risks before coronavirus
Bogglehead2, have you no sense of decency? I'm sure you are a perfect human. These are real people dying. You should be ashamed of yourself. Do you have parents, grandparents, aunts, or uncles? Maybe they are all perfect too.
decapod10
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by decapod10 »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I can't comment on the market reaction, however:

Covid19 ultimately will likely have a higher case fatality rate than H1N1. H1N1 had a CFR of about 0.02%. For Covid 19 it's probably somewhere between 0.6% and 5%.

Covid 19 also seems much more contagious than H1N1 and spreading very fast.

Covid19 has the potential to be extremely bad, though it hasn't reached that point yet, it's poor planning to wait until you get to that level.

There is some thought that the reason for the very high mortality in Italy and Wuhan compared to S Korea and China outside of Wuhan is the fact that the medical system was better equipped to handle the latter. One hypothesis is that China outside of Wuhan had a much lower mortality than Wuhan because they were able to slow the rate of spread due to their isolation measures.

Even if the total number of infections is ultimately the same, it is better to have the infections spread out over a few months than all at one time, because if they all come at once, you run out of oxygen, ventilators, ICU rooms, etc, like you are seeing in Italy. A hospital can handle 10 ventilated patients at a time per week for 10 weeks. It cannot handle 100 ventilated patients simultaneously. The first situation you get a few deaths, in the latter you get 90+ deaths, even though the total number is the same.

So that is the reasoning behind more aggressive isolation measures. Whether you agree or disagree is up to you.

I can say that seeing what's happening in hospitals in the US, the potential is there for it to be catastrophic, but I certainly hope that doesn't happen.
MWONE
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Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:33 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
MWONE,

I do not know what will happen in the USA. What I know is the annual flu season killed about 60K Chinese in China. It would take a lot more than that number for China to quarantine half of her country.

Human lives are a lot cheaper in China.

KlangFool

P.S.: China's official reported death for Coronavirus is about 3,000.
Klang,


That is a horrible thought. I just wanted to know if you thought the media was overhyping this a bit.
bglhdism
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by bglhdism »

Adding some interview excerpts with infection disease expert Michael Osterholm from two days ago as a data point here.

He is one piece of a large information puzzle, but he's a very informed individual who clearly thinks the jury is still out on this simply being a flu-comparable disease.

On Italy: "They're seeing an alarming number of cases in the 40-something age range...horrible cases...we need to stop thinking this is only an old person's disease"

"You're infectious before you get sick and in some cases quite highly infectious, just breathing is all you need to do. So from this perspective I can understand why people would say 'Wait a minute flu kills a lot more itself every year than this does'. I want to remind people that this is just the beginning. Probably the best guess we have right now, on what limited data we have: this is going to be at least 10 to 15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu you're going to see."

"We conservatively estimate this could require 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases actually occurring, and over 480,000 deaths"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm
KyleAAA
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:38 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:26 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm

There was: Markets tanking, schools closing, “state of emergency” declared, travel restrictions

There just wasn’t social media spreading the hysterics nonstop
Uhhhh, all the currently mainstream social media sites were popular in 2009.
Uhhh,

https://ourworldindata.org/rise-of-social-media

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=so ... qyaPIRhaAJ

Rise / prevalence of social media in every aspect of life has changed significantly in the last decade ... and not for the benefit of mankind
Facebook and Twitter were both pervasive in 2009, especially in the developed world. Not sure what hole you’ve been living in.
There’s a difference between “existing as a company” and rapidly increased number of users between 09-Present ... which is crystal clear in the chart with pretty colors

Have a good night
Sigh. What was the population of the developed world in 2009? What are the numbers on that graph in 2009?
decapod10
Posts: 673
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:46 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by decapod10 »

bglhdism wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:53 pm Adding some interview excerpts with infection disease expert Michael Osterholm from two days ago as a data point here.

He is one piece of a large information puzzle, but he's a very informed individual who clearly thinks the jury is still out on this simply being a flu-comparable disease.

On Italy: "They're seeing an alarming number of cases in the 40-something age range...horrible cases...we need to stop thinking this is only an old person's disease"

"You're infectious before you get sick and in some cases quite highly infectious, just breathing is all you need to do. So from this perspective I can understand why people would say 'Wait a minute flu kills a lot more itself every year than this does'. I want to remind people that this is just the beginning. Probably the best guess we have right now, on what limited data we have: this is going to be at least 10 to 15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu you're going to see."

"We conservatively estimate this could require 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases actually occurring, and over 480,000 deaths"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm
The other big issue is that when a hospital is overwhelmed with an epidemic, even if the mortality rates of the infection are not high, it has the potential to make morbidity/mortality of other problems higher since all resources are already spent. If your all your ventilators are taken by people with Covid, then the person who develops a blood clot in their lung may also die as a result when they may not have 6 months ago. That death doesn't count in the official numbers of the virus, but it's still "due to the virus" in a way.
DonIce
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by DonIce »

Main difference is that the primary cause here is a health issue, whereas in 2008 it was financial. A financial problem can be solved with financial solutions. Hence the effectiveness of fed policy, fiscal stimulus, etc, in staving off the worst of the financial crisis and initiating recovery fairly quickly.

Fed rate cuts and bond-buying do nothing to keep people healthier, on the other hand. Hence the complete failure of massive fed moves to even nudge the markets upward.

That said, once the initial panic phase runs its course, investors will realize that regardless of the short term effects, the virus will be an issue for at the very most ~2 years, but likely a much shorter span of time. Everyone will realize that as soon as the virus is either contained, or has spread irrevocably beyond any hope of containment, or a vaccine is developed, or a treatment or cure is developed, that economic activity will resume as normal.
bigskyguy
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by bigskyguy »

What I see as different this time is the system that is the source of weakness. 2008 identified a major source of weakness in our financial system, and many of you understand all of the issues (excess leveraging, a corrupt housing finance system, shadow financing, lax financial regulation, etc.) that were at the core of the collapse. The response to the 2008 collapse was a robust monetary and financial intervention. Didn't go as far as I would have wished, but even I believe that our financial system is on firmer ground (Dodd-Frank, improved banking standards and lending standards) than it was in 2008. Fast forward and the Corona virus is uncovering the soft underbelly of a public health system that is not robust enough to handle a worldwide infectious scourge AS IT SHOULD. And honestly the health consequences of Coronavirus to our long term communal well being pales in comparison to what could be (a repeat of the Plague comes to mind). My hope is that once the tsunami of the virus passes, we take measure of what could have been, understand that we do live in a global society, that isolation, be it medical, financial, climate, etc., is not possible. Hopefully we take from this just how interconnected to all peoples, cultures, and societies we are.

Maybe this is a bit too theoretical, but I hope we learn from this mistake, so as not to repeat it in the near future.
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

decapod10 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:43 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I can't comment on the market reaction, however:

Covid19 ultimately will likely have a higher case fatality rate than H1N1. H1N1 had a CFR of about 0.02%. For Covid 19 it's probably somewhere between 0.6% and 5%.

Covid 19 also seems much more contagious than H1N1 and spreading very fast.

Covid19 has the potential to be extremely bad, though it hasn't reached that point yet, it's poor planning to wait until you get to that level.

There is some thought that the reason for the very high mortality in Italy and Wuhan compared to S Korea and China outside of Wuhan is the fact that the medical system was better equipped to handle the latter. One hypothesis is that China outside of Wuhan had a much lower mortality than Wuhan because they were able to slow the rate of spread due to their isolation measures.

Even if the total number of infections is ultimately the same, it is better to have the infections spread out over a few months than all at one time, because if they all come at once, you run out of oxygen, ventilators, ICU rooms, etc, like you are seeing in Italy. A hospital can handle 10 ventilated patients at a time per week for 10 weeks. It cannot handle 100 ventilated patients simultaneously. The first situation you get a few deaths, in the latter you get 90+ deaths, even though the total number is the same.

So that is the reasoning behind more aggressive isolation measures. Whether you agree or disagree is up to you.

I can say that seeing what's happening in hospitals in the US, the potential is there for it to be catastrophic, but I certainly hope that doesn't happen.
Thank you, I appreciate your response. Because we are in Bogleland I am trying to tie in the financial side of things, but also understand the pain of what is going on and trying to get a grasp on things.
Mickey7
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Mickey7 »

1. 2008 was purely a financial crisis in which the Fed stepped in and laws were passed to prevent this from occurring again. As others have now said, "The Fed cannot print a vaccine."

2. 2020 is a health crisis making it more personal. This crisis is also slowing down and disrupting the flow of the world economy.

3. We know how the crisis of 2008 ended. None of us know how this will end, whether it will be a ripple in the water or a tsunami that engulfs.

Uncertainty always casts an ominous shadow. In 2008 we didn't know if the financial system would collapse. A this stage in 2020 we don't know if the health system will be up to the task. Uncertainty.
PDX_Traveler
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by PDX_Traveler »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I'll try to say this in as non-judgmental a way as I can manage: it does not behoove us to discount the expertise of experts in a given matter. No, contrary to our opinion, we are all not geniuses whose common sense trumps the expertise of people who've made it their field of work. What I have understood about what you call overreaction is that the difference with this virus is the longer incubation period where infected people/carriers with no symptoms can infect others if care is not taken to distance/isolate/etc. If that care is not taken, then the 20% of people that you project will need medical attention will be a *very large number* which will overwhelm the medical infrastructure with real risks that people will die due to lack of care.
How much reaction is overreaction is a debate I am happy to not participate in.
Zedon
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Zedon »

This one is different because the reason is not a financial cause, it is an outside cause that no amount of rate cutting or monetary infusion can fix. They can give loans to businesses to prop them up but that won't make the fearful customers come back until they feel safe. If this is short term, done in a few months, then most industries and companies will recover with some lost revenue. If this goes 9 months or a year or more it will have more dire consequences on certain industries and companies. Some won't make it.
When it hit China it started hitting the supply, when it began hitting the rest of the world it started killing demand. All travel and tourism related industries will take huge hits that won't be recuperated. Currently the underlying economy is still good but it won't stay good if this goes through next winter, then we could be in long lasting trouble. That's how I see it. I'm hoping the warmer weather slows it down as with the typical flu.

We are currently in a reactionary period, some say over reaction, but we won't really know until it's over. Banning large gathering seems to be a proper precaution. But some other things seem to be near panic or based on fear of the unknown, hopefully as we learn more we can make the right decisions.
xraygoggles
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by xraygoggles »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
Are you a physician, epidemiologist, or on the task force for COVID? If not, you are exhibiting a classic example of the Dunning–Kruger effect.

Some tidbits from a recent expert panel:

- "40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity."
- "We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year."
- "Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did."

Source: UCSF BioHub Panel on COVID-19 (https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/ ... lain-m-d-/)
Last edited by xraygoggles on Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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careytilden
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by careytilden »

kareysue wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:08 pm I notice in 2008 the market crash a lot but this pandemic seems different but it seems to fall faster than in 2008. The world was prepared for another financial crisis but it was not prepared for a pandemic because this has never happened before?
2008 was a grind. Bad news kept coming and things kept getting worse and worse. The market started falling in late 2007 and kept going down until early 2009.

2020 has been a hammer blow. It's happening so fast! Will it go back up as fast? We'll see. The economic impact is still TBD. Maybe the pandemic will come and go, but the economic turmoil will last for another year and a half, and it'll end up being a grind too. I hope not.
fuddbogle
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fuddbogle »

Ohio health officials believe they have 100,000 cases in Ohio. I’m sure a few deaths are coming but as I post this, zero deaths.

US also had 60M cases of H1N1. That’s 60,000,000. US will be fine when this all shakes out.
pocketplayer
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by pocketplayer »

My opinion is not worth much, but in 2008 this was internal, today the crisis is external. The market was doing very well until a month ago (end of Jan Dow Jones was almost 29k and in a month dropped to almost 20k). The world seems like it is stopping. Think of it this way...if you keep kids locked inside for too long, when it is time to run free, they will run free! When this gets under control, people will RUN to live life again...ball games, concerts, movies, etc.

Am I incorrect that this might be the best buying opportunity? If you have cash to invest, then each investor will wait until they believe the market hit its low, then invest back fully. I feel, and it is a feeling, the market will surge back fast to where it was because people want to feel safe and live life.

I have followed the Bogleheads 3-4 index fund portfolio model and has worked for me. Due to family issues I pulled out, then my father passed so I got an inheritance and have cash sitting in money market and checking waiting to enter. I am still deciding what specific index funds to invest in.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by oldcomputerguy »

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Dottie57
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Dottie57 »

2008-2009 was caused by financial fraud and gambling.

Current situation is caused by a health scare which impacts human behavior. People are scared and it is reflected in our markets.

Fear for saving vs fear of death.

I’ve been to the local grocery store and there are no drastic shortages yet. No hand sanitizer, but plenty of tp. I plan to go early to shop for staples, meat, ingredients for casseroles I can prepare and freeze.
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:47 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm

Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
MWONE,

I do not know what will happen in the USA. What I know is the annual flu season killed about 60K Chinese in China. It would take a lot more than that number for China to quarantine half of her country.

Human lives are a lot cheaper in China.

KlangFool

P.S.: China's official reported death for Coronavirus is about 3,000.
Klang,


That is a horrible thought. I just wanted to know if you thought the media was overhyping this a bit.
If my guess about China is correct, do you think that media is overhyping this flu or not?

My answer would be the media is underplaying this crisis. It is still "just the flu" as per the media.

KlangFool
Last edited by KlangFool on Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
harvestbook
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by harvestbook »

In 2008 I was worried I'd die homeless. Now I worry that I'll die.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
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galving
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by galving »

rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
I agree that the total annual number of deaths for the flu are much higher than covid-19.
The concern is that the comparison is not very useful, because its a comparison of a mature flu to a very early understanding of covid-19.
(Apples vs Oranges)

Comparing the two on a slightly different basis:
Flu - 0.1% mortality rate
Covid - 1% mortality rate (I think early projections had this even higher 2-3%)

This new virus is a factor of magnitude higher mortality rate, and has the potential to overwhelm the medical infrastructure.

The bottom line is that the virus has had a large impact (China, Italy, US, global economy).
Never seen such a large scale disruption, my only reference point(s) have been Hurricane Impacts and those are mainly regional.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

xraygoggles wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:38 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
Are you a physician, epidemiologist, or on the task force for COVID? If not, you are exhibiting a classic example of the Dunning–Kruger effect.

Some tidbits from a recent expert panel:

- "40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity."
- "We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year."
- "Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did."

Source: UCSF BioHub Panel on COVID-19 (https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/ ... lain-m-d-/)
I have loved ones who are susceptible to this.

I have close personal friends who are physicians. I have several friends who are nurses, primarily ER/Urgent Care.

My annual physical conveniently took place right when this starting exploding - so I’ve been in contact with several doctors directly in addition to the friends I’ve reached out to.

I have several friends that work in the finance/wealth management industry.

Here’s what every single 1 of them told me: Be mindful, wash your hands, and if you have money now is a great time to buy.

There is a difference between acknowledging the presence of this and hysteria sending the global economy spiraling into oblivion. The markets overreaction to this has been absolutely absurd.

Good luck out there.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

galving wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:53 am
rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
I agree that the total annual number of deaths for the flu are much higher than covid-19.
The concern is that the comparison is not very useful, because its a comparison of a mature flu to a very early understanding of covid-19.
(Apples vs Oranges)

Comparing the two on a slightly different basis:
Flu - 0.1% mortality rate
Covid - 1% mortality rate (I think early projections had this even higher 2-3%)

This new virus is a factor of magnitude higher mortality rate, and has the potential to overwhelm the medical infrastructure.

The bottom line is that the virus has had a large impact (China, Italy, US, global economy).
Never seen such a large scale disruption, my only reference point(s) have been Hurricane Impacts and those are mainly regional.
We may never know the mortality rate of this, since a lot of “victims” will either go about their day not feeling any symptoms or the symptoms are so minor they don’t think twice about it. It’s the hysteria that will flood our health care providers, not the symptoms in most people.

The mortality rate for anyone under 50 is very similar to the seasonal flu. The world is not ending - enjoy the buying opportunity.
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Ramjet
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Ramjet »

How is this different than 2008?

First thing that comes to mind is the speed of it
le_sacre
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by le_sacre »

For those pondering whether people are overreacting, or the media over-hyping, here's a point I found instructive:

For any public health preventive measures (really for any preventive measures of any kind), to the extent they are successful it will necessarily appear as though they were an overreaction. If Merkel warning her country of a possible 60-70% infection prevalence helps get people to comply with expert recommendations to slow the spread, it will (misleadingly) appear after the fact that everyone "overreacted". If drastic isolation measures succeed in containing the virus, they were not drastic, they were appropriate.

(much like if stock returns turn out better than bonds, that doesn't mean it was a mistake to hold bonds)

The media reports I'm seeing are talking to the appropriate experts. Listen to them.
trueson1
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by trueson1 »

Everything is different from 2008, especially the media - as a result of this:

To answer Klang, the answer is C:
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

le_sacre wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:56 am For those pondering whether people are overreacting, or the media over-hyping, here's a point I found instructive:

For any public health preventive measures (really for any preventive measures of any kind), to the extent they are successful it will necessarily appear as though they were an overreaction. If Merkel warning her country of a possible 60-70% infection prevalence helps get people to comply with expert recommendations to slow the spread, it will (misleadingly) appear after the fact that everyone "overreacted". If drastic isolation measures succeed in containing the virus, they were not drastic, they were appropriate.

(much like if stock returns turn out better than bonds, that doesn't mean it was a mistake to hold bonds)

The media reports I'm seeing are talking to the appropriate experts. Listen to them.
There needs to be a proportionate response. You can't spend billions of dollars and shut the country down every time there is a novel virus in Asia. After this is all over, we should be able to determine if there was an over-reaction or not. If less than a 10,000 people die in the US from coronavirus, I would say that the response was completely over the top. If more than 200,000 people die, then the response was appropriate. In between is up for debate.
Last edited by rkhusky on Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:40 am
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:47 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm

MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
MWONE,

I do not know what will happen in the USA. What I know is the annual flu season killed about 60K Chinese in China. It would take a lot more than that number for China to quarantine half of her country.

Human lives are a lot cheaper in China.

KlangFool

P.S.: China's official reported death for Coronavirus is about 3,000.
Klang,


That is a horrible thought. I just wanted to know if you thought the media was overhyping this a bit.
If my guess about China is correct, do you think that media is overhyping this flu or not?

My answer would be the media is underplaying this crisis. It is still "just the flu" as per the media.

KlangFool
I guess it is a matter of perception. Yes, I do think it is being overhyped as compared to other viruses in the past, and the market is reacting accordingly. That said, I also realize I could be wrong and will keep an open mind and will follow all safety guidelines.
Target2019
Posts: 483
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Target2019 »

If you go to this sie:
https://covid19info.live/
and click on the blue more graphs button, consider the differences between Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1. The graphs explain why there is more concern. Since we are living through a new strain, the situation gets better or worse from this point forward. We just don't know. The uncertainty is a feature of market declines. It probably doesn't matter that the pandemic is different than a financial crisis. We're left holding the bag of uncertainty, and things will improve in time.
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

galving wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:53 am The bottom line is that the virus has had a large impact (China, Italy, US, global economy).
Never seen such a large scale disruption, my only reference point(s) have been Hurricane Impacts and those are mainly regional.
But is the disruption from the virus or the response to the virus?

It's interesting, but it is often that way with viruses/bacteria in the body - it's largely the body's response to the virus/bacteria, rather than the virus/bacteria itself, that kills people.
FoolMeOnce
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by FoolMeOnce »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:10 am
le_sacre wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:56 am For those pondering whether people are overreacting, or the media over-hyping, here's a point I found instructive:

For any public health preventive measures (really for any preventive measures of any kind), to the extent they are successful it will necessarily appear as though they were an overreaction. If Merkel warning her country of a possible 60-70% infection prevalence helps get people to comply with expert recommendations to slow the spread, it will (misleadingly) appear after the fact that everyone "overreacted". If drastic isolation measures succeed in containing the virus, they were not drastic, they were appropriate.

(much like if stock returns turn out better than bonds, that doesn't mean it was a mistake to hold bonds)

The media reports I'm seeing are talking to the appropriate experts. Listen to them.
There needs to be a proportionate response. You can't spend billions of dollars and shut the country down every time there is a novel virus in Asia. After this is all over, we should be able to determine if there was an over-reaction or not. If less than a 10,000 people die in the US from coronavirus, I would say that the response was completely over the top. ...
Or the response was effective. I'm going to trust the pandemic experts who have spent their lives studying these and who uniformly seem to think this has the potential to be far worse than the common flu. Do you think these sports leagues would sacrifice billions of revenue due to uninformed and unconsidered panic?

Look, sharks kill more people each year than that tsunami that is still a few miles from shore has killed so far. Why panic and take extreme preventive measures yet? Let's wait and see if enough people die. Of course, if we evacuate now, nobody will die and therefore the evacuation order will have been completely over the top.
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

MWONE wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:10 am
I guess it is a matter of perception. Yes, I do think it is being overhyped as compared to other viruses in the past, and the market is reacting accordingly. That said, I also realize I could be wrong and will keep an open mind and will follow all safety guidelines.
MWONE,

As I had said before, I do not care about the media at all.

As for you, do you believe that it is "just the flu" for everyone to shut down the schools, sports, and so on? This is unprecedented. We do not do this as compared to all other viruses. They could not be all crazy and caught up with some kind of hype.

KlangFool
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

Duplicate.

KlangFool
Last edited by KlangFool on Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

FoolMeOnce wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:16 am Or the response was effective. I'm going to trust the pandemic experts who have spent their lives studying these and who uniformly seem to think this has the potential to be far worse than the common flu. Do you think these sports leagues would sacrifice billions of revenue due to uninformed and unconsidered panic?

Look, sharks kill more people each year than that tsunami that is still a few miles from shore has killed so far. Why panic and take extreme preventive measures yet? Let's wait and see if enough people die. Of course, if we evacuate now, nobody will die and therefore the evacuation order will have been completely over the top.
Are the experts saying that we should close all schools in the country, close all air travel, ban all gatherings of more than a few people? It seems like those have all been political decisions (and schools and big companies/organizations are led by politicians), people covering their behinds because they don't want to seem to be doing less than their peers. Lemmings following each other over the cliff.
flaccidsteele
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by flaccidsteele »

kareysue wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:08 pm I notice in 2008 the market crash a lot but this pandemic seems different but it seems to fall faster than in 2008. The world was prepared for another financial crisis but it was not prepared for a pandemic because this has never happened before?
Reasons for downturn are different

Outcome will be the same
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
z3r0c00l
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by z3r0c00l »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:14 am
galving wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:53 am The bottom line is that the virus has had a large impact (China, Italy, US, global economy).
Never seen such a large scale disruption, my only reference point(s) have been Hurricane Impacts and those are mainly regional.
But is the disruption from the virus or the response to the virus?

It's interesting, but it is often that way with viruses/bacteria in the body - it's largely the body's response to the virus/bacteria, rather than the virus/bacteria itself, that kills people.
This is probably why the 1918 pandemic was so deadly to young men, their vigorous immune system response proved deadly while the young and old had a weaker response to the virus. The cure can be worse than the disease, for example, consider how many excess deaths are caused by a severe and prolonged recession. During the great recession it was estimated that there were 1,500 more suicides per year in the US due to measurable yearly increase in suicide rates.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

harvestbook wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:44 am In 2008 I was worried I'd die homeless. Now I worry that I'll die.
I have lost a stunning amount of money but barely care. I lost less in 2008 and cared. I am worried my wife and I will suffer health consequences or death in the near term.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

Wonder what the response here would be if Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab shut down and didn't process any trades, while the stock market was kept open?
ChapMan
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by ChapMan »

I understand that there is some dispute about the mortality rate of COVID-19, and I understand that the common comparison used is for seasonal influenza. I see that some are saying that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is actually much lower because a lot of people who get sick are never counted. What I can't quite grasp, however, is why the same logic doesn't apply to seasonal influenza? We think seasonal influenza has a mortality rate of about 0.1%, but how do we know that there are a lot more people who get it but never seek treatment and aren't counted? Anecdotally, neither I nor any co-workers I talk about this with have ever gone to the hospital due to seasonal influenza, and it seems like I get it about 3 out of every 4 years. Am I counted in the 0.1% statistic? If so, how? Is that a guesstimate as well (nothing wrong with that, I'm just curious)?
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:42 am Wonder what the response here would be if Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab shut down and didn't process any trades, while the stock market was kept open?
If they did that, which I don’t believe is legal, most of us would move our assets the moment they opened up again. Staying the course is my choice, not theirs.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 am
MWONE wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:10 am
I guess it is a matter of perception. Yes, I do think it is being overhyped as compared to other viruses in the past, and the market is reacting accordingly. That said, I also realize I could be wrong and will keep an open mind and will follow all safety guidelines.
MWONE,

As I had said before, I do not care about the media at all.

As for you, do you believe that it is "just the flu" for everyone to shut down the schools, sports, and so on? This is unprecedented. We do not do this as compared to all other viruses. They could not be all crazy and caught up with some kind of hype.

KlangFool
No, I do not think this is "just the flu", I think this a new virus that needs to be dealt with. So far, I think the reaction is like dropping a bomb to kill a knat. The shutting down of EVERYTHING will lead to an economic fallout that in my opinion will be troubling. And now that the precedent has been set, is this how all future viruses will be handled? As others have said, we live in a world now that sometimes it is more important to cover your butt than to be criticized. But, as I said, I think it is important for those who might share my opinion to go forward as if this might be a new and different reality, and do what it takes to protect yourself and others.
FoolMeOnce
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by FoolMeOnce »

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:26 am
FoolMeOnce wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:16 am Or the response was effective. I'm going to trust the pandemic experts who have spent their lives studying these and who uniformly seem to think this has the potential to be far worse than the common flu. Do you think these sports leagues would sacrifice billions of revenue due to uninformed and unconsidered panic?

Look, sharks kill more people each year than that tsunami that is still a few miles from shore has killed so far. Why panic and take extreme preventive measures yet? Let's wait and see if enough people die. Of course, if we evacuate now, nobody will die and therefore the evacuation order will have been completely over the top.
Are the experts saying that we should close all schools in the country, close all air travel, ban all gatherings of more than a few people? It seems like those have all been political decisions (and schools and big companies/organizations are led by politicians), people covering their behinds because they don't want to seem to be doing less than their peers. Lemmings following each other over the cliff.
Schools are closing because experts are telling them to close. Eg Ohio Governor Mike DeWine: "We have a responsibility to save lives. We could have waited to close schools, but based on advice from health experts, this is the time to do it."

Cite: https://mobile.twitter.com/GovMikeDeWin ... 4284720128

Closing schools is not an easy or obvious political decision. It has drastic consequences for parents of kids too young to leave alone who are paid hourly or have little to no paid leave and can't work remotely, harms families that really on free meals, and is hugely disruptive even to those priveleged enough to get by with little cost. Nobody wants to do this.

But school closure was one of the big social distancing measures that saved lives in cities that took early action during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

Study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... cle/208354

Quote from one of the authors of the study: "School closing turned out to be one of the most effective firewalls against the spread of the pandemic; cities that acted fast, for lengthy periods, and included school closing and at least one other NPI in their responses saw the lowest death rates." [NPI = non-pharmeceutical intervention.

Cite: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/opin ... losed.html

Similar info and chart from that study just looking at St. Louis v. Philadelphia in 1918 that has been going around, more easily digestible. Perhaps you've already seen this:

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1 ... ing-works/

"A different story played out in St. Louis, just 900 miles away. Within two days of detecting its first cases among civilians, the city closed schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms, and even churches. Work shifts were staggered and streetcar ridership was strictly limited. Public gatherings of more than 20 people were banned.

The extreme measures—now known as social distancing, which is being called for by global health agencies to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus—kept per capita flu-related deaths in St. Louis to less than half of those in Philadelphia, according to a 2007 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."

[Edited for phone typos]
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

1918 Spanish Flu pandemic was completely different than the coronavirus, in that it affected young adults much worse than other groups. Shutting down schools was an appropriate step in that case. We know a lot more about how viruses are spread between people now and take preventative measures like washing hands, staying home when sick, covering coughs and sneezes, etc.
Last edited by rkhusky on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:46 am
rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:42 am Wonder what the response here would be if Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab shut down and didn't process any trades, while the stock market was kept open?
If they did that, which I don’t believe is legal, most of us would move our assets the moment they opened up again. Staying the course is my choice, not theirs.
But they would be doing it out of an abundance of caution to protect their employees. It seems like no measure to combat the coronavirus is too extreme today. I just hope they don't bring back internment camps.
Caduceus
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Caduceus »

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 am
MWONE,

As I had said before, I do not care about the media at all.

As for you, do you believe that it is "just the flu" for everyone to shut down the schools, sports, and so on? This is unprecedented. We do not do this as compared to all other viruses. They could not be all crazy and caught up with some kind of hype.

KlangFool
This is not a good argument, because it's an argument from social proof: "If A, and B, and C, do these things, then Proposition X must be true." If you look at the history of civilizations, we've had plenty of periods of mass hysteria and social contagion before. People were killing lots of witches in 16th-century Europe ... therefore there must have been witches who were preying on men and cutting their penises for devil worship? Don't forget that it wasn't un-educated people who were doing these things - the Catholic Church - the most learned institution of its time in high society - was the one sending inquisitors into places and searching for devil's marks and witch's imaginary pets, and so on.

Now, note that I am not saying that the coronavirus is such an episode. The virus is real. Witches are not. But there are elements of hysteria and irrationality that should be fairly obvious. You see Asian people being treated with suspicion and some have been harassed and even beaten up. My Asian friends - they don't even have to be Chinese ... just someone who looks like they might be Chinese - have told me that some people actually give them an extra wide berth on streets. People wear masks even when they are not sick even though they are told this makes little difference and prevents those who need them from accessing needed supplies. Some people bought years' worth of toilet paper and canned food.

You can't tell me that there's not a little irrationality in the reactions of people around you. Being prudent and careful is one thing. But it's in the nature of pandemics that there's a little bit of mass hysteria.
Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
I'm not sure why H1N1 wasn't a big deal, but i feel we have already passed the not making this a big deal stage.

My thoughts take them or leave them, a few things are going on.

1. The market has uncertainty of profits in the short term.
2. The length of this issue is uncertain.
3. How much we have to stop everything is uncertain.
4. The long term affects of this virus are unknown.
5. If this virus will become a constant like the flu is unknown
6. Impact on the lower middle class (those that can't telecomute) will be huge.
7. impact on service businesses will be huge.
8. impact on airlines/travel/cruises/disney/entertainment/etc will be huge.
9. people are expecting negative growth, but they don't know if that is for 1 quarter or many
10. with major imapcts to lower middle class, it could be expected that they default on their debts to feed their families
11. last few days the spread between the 10y treasury and 10/1 arms has increased, in my mind because banks are pricing risk into mortgages
12. there is risk of stagflation due to potentially an economic recession and raising prices due to a shortage of goods
KlangFool
Posts: 18181
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

Caduceus wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:24 am
MWONE,

As I had said before, I do not care about the media at all.

As for you, do you believe that it is "just the flu" for everyone to shut down the schools, sports, and so on? This is unprecedented. We do not do this as compared to all other viruses. They could not be all crazy and caught up with some kind of hype.

KlangFool
This is not a good argument, because it's an argument from social proof: "If A, and B, and C, do these things, then Proposition X must be true." If you look at the history of civilizations, we've had plenty of periods of mass hysteria and social contagion before. People were killing lots of witches in 16th-century Europe ... therefore there must have been witches who were preying on men and cutting their penises for devil worship? Don't forget that it wasn't un-educated people who were doing these things - the Catholic Church - the most learned institution of its time in high society - was the one sending inquisitors into places and searching for devil's marks and witch's imaginary pets, and so on.
Caduceus,

<<This is not a good argument,>>

Back to you. This is not a good argument if you know anything about China and Chinese culture.

<<If you look at the history of civilizations, we've had plenty of periods of mass hysteria and social contagion before.>>

It does not apply to Chinese civilization that has a long history of dealing with pandemic and survived.

KlangFool
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