How is this pandemic different than 2008?

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kareysue
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How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by kareysue »

I notice in 2008 the market crash a lot but this pandemic seems different but it seems to fall faster than in 2008. The world was prepared for another financial crisis but it was not prepared for a pandemic because this has never happened before?
Thesaints
Posts: 3465
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:25 am

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Thesaints »

Not this size, as far as we can tell.
The 1918 Spanish Flu could be a rough equivalent, but the (financial) World back then was so different that it is not really a useful precedent.
rkhusky
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by rkhusky »

Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
The seasonal flu has killed at least 30,000 more people than coronavirus this year ... and no one even mentions it

because “new”/unfamiliar is what’s scary ... and the media (news, social media, etc.) isn’t helping

It is a legit concern. It is also not the end of the world. There is a balance.

I wash my hands more than ever and shower 2x a day and will be skipping some social activities that I otherwise would’ve attended normally ... other than that - it is what it is.

The panic / mania over this is absolutely ridiculous.
GoldenFinch
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by GoldenFinch »

It is different because 2008 was a housing crisis, a banking crisis and a recession. This pandemic is a health crisis and the impacts are very different as well as the response. What happens to the economy and the job market will depend on how long the crisis lasts and what these unprecedented steps like school closings, college shut downs and cancellations mean for the economy. Hopefully all of these measures make a difference so we can get back to normal.
annu
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Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:55 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by annu »

rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
I think this is exactly what is issue right now, comparing covid 19 to flu.....it is not same, yes it is part of the same family, but it has this sweet spot where it is not as deadly as Saras or mers, but it spreads and has been spreading a lot more effectly, partly due to folks thinking it is not that bad. But look at all the people dying who are vulnerable, it is almost 15% mortality for vulnerable age, which is many times the flu......and still it is not walk in the park with more existing conditions like diabetes or high BP...
alex_686
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by alex_686 »

Lightning never hits the same spot twice. O.k., in real life it does, but I think it holds here. We know where the last fee crashes took place, so we watch those spots. We don’t watch spots were disasters have never taken place, or at least in living memory of those running the show.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
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villars
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by villars »

It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Iridium
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Iridium »

kareysue wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:08 pm I notice in 2008 the market crash a lot but this pandemic seems different but it seems to fall faster than in 2008. The world was prepared for another financial crisis but it was not prepared for a pandemic because this has never happened before?
I don't think you can tie the speed at which the market falls to "preparation". The market is constantly looking to the future and predicting how severe things will be. In 2008, what was going on was extremely murky (and much of the relevant contracts were not public information), so even the experts did not see just how many dominos would ultimately fall. Whereas, there has existed a field of epidemiology for decades (centuries), and most relevant information is published within 24 hours.

It should also be noted that 2008 ultimately knocked a lot more outb of the market than what has happened in the market this far. I would argue that implies that the market still finds 2008 to be more significant than the pandemic.
RetiredAL
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by RetiredAL »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:28 pm
rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
The seasonal flu has killed at least 30,000 more people than coronavirus this year ... and no one even mentions it

because “new”/unfamiliar is what’s scary ... and the media (news, social media, etc.) isn’t helping

It is a legit concern. It is also not the end of the world. There is a balance.

I wash my hands more than ever and shower 2x a day and will be skipping some social activities that I otherwise would’ve attended normally ... other than that - it is what it is.

The panic / mania over this is absolutely ridiculous.
Per the CDC, there were 2.8 millions registered deaths in the US in 2017.

Here's a list of the top 10 killers: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929

Showering 2x a day seems pretty excessive to me. But don't be like the Italians, where hugging/kissing every friend and sharing that glass of wine is considered being a normal friend.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

RetiredAL wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:38 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:28 pm
rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm Things need to get a lot worse before comparing to past disasters. Roughly 40,000 people die in the US every year from the flu. I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000? Have there been 50 deaths yet in the US?
The seasonal flu has killed at least 30,000 more people than coronavirus this year ... and no one even mentions it

because “new”/unfamiliar is what’s scary ... and the media (news, social media, etc.) isn’t helping

It is a legit concern. It is also not the end of the world. There is a balance.

I wash my hands more than ever and shower 2x a day and will be skipping some social activities that I otherwise would’ve attended normally ... other than that - it is what it is.

The panic / mania over this is absolutely ridiculous.
Per the CDC, there were 2.8 millions registered deaths in the US in 2017.

Here's a list of the top 10 killers: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929

Showering 2x a day seems pretty excessive to me. But don't be like the Italians, where hugging/kissing every friend and sharing that glass of wine is considered being a normal friend.
AM shower to wake up, PM shower when I get home ... easy peasy
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patrick013
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by patrick013 »

One Washington information source claims it will only
kill 1% of the people infected. Others will be pretty
darn sick no doubt. A good bowl of onion soup wouldn't
hurt. It only lasts on doorknobs 3 or 4 days.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

OP,

Have you seen a whole country quarantined just for the flu? So, this is not "just the flu".

KlangFool
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
One Washington information source claims it will only
kill 1% of the people infected.
Others will be pretty
darn sick no doubt. A good bowl of onion soup wouldn't
hurt. It only lasts on doorknobs 3 or 4 days.
patrick013,

So, it is only 10 times worse than the flu (0.1%).

KlangFool
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
BoggledHead2,

The case fatality rate of the Coronavirus range from 0.6% to 3.6%. As compared to the flu's case fatality rate of 0.1%, it is only 6 to 36 times worse than the flu.

KlangFool
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patrick013
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by patrick013 »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
One Washington information source claims it will only
kill 1% of the people infected.
Others will be pretty
darn sick no doubt. A good bowl of onion soup wouldn't
hurt. It only lasts on doorknobs 3 or 4 days.
patrick013,

So, it is only 10 times worse than the flu (0.1%).

KlangFool
I don't know. It is a very bad outbreak nonetheless. Most
people will recover why I don't know. Those darn cruise ships
are always catching some strange disease but never where they
had to be quarantined like this one.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

Folks,

If it is "just the flu", there will not be widespread quarantine across multiple countries around the world. So, it has to be a lot more than "just the flu".

KlangFool
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:31 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
One Washington information source claims it will only
kill 1% of the people infected.
Others will be pretty
darn sick no doubt. A good bowl of onion soup wouldn't
hurt. It only lasts on doorknobs 3 or 4 days.
patrick013,

So, it is only 10 times worse than the flu (0.1%).

KlangFool
I don't know. It is a very bad outbreak nonetheless. Most
people will recover why I don't know. Those darn cruise ships
are always catching some strange disease but never where they
had to be quarantined like this one.
patrick013,

1) What is there to know? If the number is 1%, it is 10 times worse than 0.1%.

2) Do you believe your state/county/school will quarantine or shut down for "just the flu"?

The answer is obvious.

KlangFool
MathWizard
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MathWizard »

2008 was at the heart a cash flow crunch combined with a lot of lying about the quality of the assets underlying the securities, and a bunch of laying off of risk, combined with the moral hazard of too big to fail when Long Term Capital Management was not allowed to fail hard. That set the stage for the heads we win tails you lose attitude, and the credit default swaps and the huge leverage .

A whole lot of pure greed, with a capital G.

The way out of it was simple, but fraught with more moral hazard. So a middle course was followed.
Let the most egregious fail (Bears Stearns).
Let those that were giving false data (Countrywide) be taken over. Make other banks merge.
Bail some out Chase
Let some through bankruptcy, and loan them start up money automakers.

Bail the rest out and take a chunk of shares and make a profit.

Standards and Poors and the SEC should have been taken to the woodshed for not ringing alarm bells, but were not.

People don't die from losing money in the stock market.

This crisis is a health crisis. No finance maneuvering will help.
People die from a health crisis.
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:31 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
One Washington information source claims it will only
kill 1% of the people infected.
Others will be pretty
darn sick no doubt. A good bowl of onion soup wouldn't
hurt. It only lasts on doorknobs 3 or 4 days.
patrick013,

So, it is only 10 times worse than the flu (0.1%).

KlangFool
I don't know. It is a very bad outbreak nonetheless. Most
people will recover why I don't know. Those darn cruise ships
are always catching some strange disease but never where they
had to be quarantined like this one.
patrick013,

1) What is there to know? If the number is 1%, it is 10 times worse than 0.1%.

2) Do you believe your state/county/school will quarantine or shut down for "just the flu"?

The answer is obvious.

KlangFool
No, the answer is not obvious. Do you remember the H1N1? Why not the mass hysteria?
BoggledHead2
Posts: 562
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:40 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:31 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
One Washington information source claims it will only
kill 1% of the people infected.
Others will be pretty
darn sick no doubt. A good bowl of onion soup wouldn't
hurt. It only lasts on doorknobs 3 or 4 days.
patrick013,

So, it is only 10 times worse than the flu (0.1%).

KlangFool
I don't know. It is a very bad outbreak nonetheless. Most
people will recover why I don't know. Those darn cruise ships
are always catching some strange disease but never where they
had to be quarantined like this one.
patrick013,

1) What is there to know? If the number is 1%, it is 10 times worse than 0.1%.

2) Do you believe your state/county/school will quarantine or shut down for "just the flu"?

The answer is obvious.

KlangFool
No, the answer is not obvious. Do you remember the H1N1? Why not the mass hysteria?
There was: Markets tanking, schools closing, “state of emergency” declared, travel restrictions

There just wasn’t social media spreading the hysterics nonstop
Irisheyes
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Irisheyes »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand (this is a family forum. I'm being polite) and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:

And as for the guesstimate of .9% case fatality rate? That's based on Korea, where they have incessant testing, tracing and quarantine. We are far more likely to be like Italy, with an above 3% case fatality rate, since we are not testing, definitely are not tracing, and have a large percentage of the population with comorbidities.

[Comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]
Last edited by Irisheyes on Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
Do you think the Covid-19 will result in more deaths than the common flu from this point forward?
KlangFool
Posts: 18173
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

Folks,

You have a choice. You can assume that this is just a mass hysteria and everyone else in the world except you is crazy. And, they decided to destroy the economy/businesses/daily lives by quarantine and shut down schools, NBA, NCAA, MLB and so on. Or, this Coronavirus is more than "just the flu".

Your choice. Which one is more logical?

KlangFool
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careytilden
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by careytilden »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:50 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
Do you think the Covid-19 will result in more deaths than the common flu from this point forward?
It doesn't really matter which virus kills more. The new virus is bad enough to put a strain on medical systems. Those are often already stressed due to flu season. They don't have tons of available hospital beds and respirators sitting around to spare.

Writ large, it's a big shock to the system. It has the potential to cause a lot of problems in a short period of time.
Irisheyes
Posts: 312
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Irisheyes »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
The Italians are old and Americans are in poor health:

The new coronavirus is a serious threat to the elderly, as federal officials have been at pains to note recently. But they have stepped gingerly around advice for another group of Americans also at special risk from the infection: those with chronic health conditions.

It is not a small group. Roughly half of all Americans have at least one chronic health condition, and 40 percent have more than one. (The figures include the elderly.) Heart disease, cancer, diabetes — all of these can exacerbate a coronavirus infection, studies show, increasing the odds of severe disease and death
.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/heal ... tions.html
MWONE
Posts: 45
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
User avatar
fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:56 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
The Italians are old and Americans are in poor health:

The new coronavirus is a serious threat to the elderly, as federal officials have been at pains to note recently. But they have stepped gingerly around advice for another group of Americans also at special risk from the infection: those with chronic health conditions.

It is not a small group. Roughly half of all Americans have at least one chronic health condition, and 40 percent have more than one. (The figures include the elderly.) Heart disease, cancer, diabetes — all of these can exacerbate a coronavirus infection, studies show, increasing the odds of severe disease and death
.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/heal ... tions.html
And obese...
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fortfun
Posts: 2760
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

careytilden wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:53 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:50 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
Do you think the Covid-19 will result in more deaths than the common flu from this point forward?
It doesn't really matter which virus kills more. The new virus is bad enough to put a strain on medical systems. Those are often already stressed due to flu season. They don't have tons of available hospital beds and respirators sitting around to spare.

Writ large, it's a big shock to the system. It has the potential to cause a lot of problems in a short period of time.
Yes, this seems to be the point that Fox viewers are missing. Here's an article from a conservative newspaper: The Wall Street Journal. Maybe they will believe this but probably not. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-hospit ... 1584056336
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:53 pm Folks,

You have a choice. You can assume that this is just a mass hysteria and everyone else in the world except you is crazy. And, they decided to destroy the economy/businesses/daily lives by quarantine and shut down schools, NBA, NCAA, MLB and so on. Or, this Coronavirus is more than "just the flu".

Your choice. Which one is more logical?

KlangFool
Klang,

I am just curious. Do you think the media is hyping this:

A: Not at all
B: A little
C: A lot (After all, that is their job)

Please, for purposes of a respectful discussion, I would like to know your answer.
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Blue456
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Blue456 »

Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand (this is a family forum. I'm being polite) and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:

And as for the guesstimate of .9% case fatality rate? That's based on Korea, where they have incessant testing, tracing and quarantine. We are far more likely to be like Italy, with an above 3% case fatality rate, since we are not testing, definitely are not tracing, and have a large percentage of the population with comorbidities.

but oh well, just 3.4% of the sick and oldies gone.
And it will be higher than that once US hospitals run out of ventilators.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Blue456 »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Meanwhile NYC public schools remain open...
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fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Well said KlangFool.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
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fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:50 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
Do you think the Covid-19 will result in more deaths than the common flu from this point forward?
According to this article, yes. You probably won't like it because it appears in the Washington Post. However, a similar article appeared in the conservative WSJ today. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/c ... story.html
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:09 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:53 pm Folks,

You have a choice. You can assume that this is just a mass hysteria and everyone else in the world except you is crazy. And, they decided to destroy the economy/businesses/daily lives by quarantine and shut down schools, NBA, NCAA, MLB and so on. Or, this Coronavirus is more than "just the flu".

Your choice. Which one is more logical?

KlangFool
Klang,

I am just curious. Do you think the media is hyping this:

A: Not at all
B: A little
C: A lot (After all, that is their job)

Please, for purposes of a respectful discussion, I would like to know your answer.
MWONE,

I do not care about the media at all. I based my opinion on the actual actions taken by each country. Starting with China and the countries closest to China. Culturally, I understand the amount of pain and suffering needed to force China into that quarantine decision. And, the countries closest to China took the hint and responded accordingly.

KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by increment »

rkhusky wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm I think we need to get far beyond that to call this a disaster, 500,000?
If 1% of people who get it die, then there would be that many deaths in the US if 15% of Americans get it. Reportedly that is not implausible. This week Angela Merkel told Germans (and the rest of the world) that eventually the infection rate could reach 60% or 70%.
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
People are dying. Look at what’s happening in Italy right now, largely because too many people had this attitude. Things went better in China and South Korea, where nobody had this attitude.
MWONE
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by MWONE »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:21 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:09 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:53 pm Folks,

You have a choice. You can assume that this is just a mass hysteria and everyone else in the world except you is crazy. And, they decided to destroy the economy/businesses/daily lives by quarantine and shut down schools, NBA, NCAA, MLB and so on. Or, this Coronavirus is more than "just the flu".

Your choice. Which one is more logical?

KlangFool
Klang,

I am just curious. Do you think the media is hyping this:

A: Not at all
B: A little
C: A lot (After all, that is their job)

Please, for purposes of a respectful discussion, I would like to know your answer.
MWONE,

I do not care about the media at all. I based my opinion on the actual actions taken by each country. Starting with China and the countries closest to China. Culturally, I understand the amount of pain and suffering needed to force China into that quarantine decision. And, the countries closest to China took the hint and responded accordingly.

KlangFool
Klang,

Culturally, that is why I asked.
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fortfun
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by fortfun »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
Probably because this one is just getting started. You ain't seen nothing yet. If 70% of mankind comes down with this, and only 1% of them die, it's a very big deal. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/1 ... IDEQ6QmRSs
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:40 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:31 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:22 pm

patrick013,

So, it is only 10 times worse than the flu (0.1%).

KlangFool
I don't know. It is a very bad outbreak nonetheless. Most
people will recover why I don't know. Those darn cruise ships
are always catching some strange disease but never where they
had to be quarantined like this one.
patrick013,

1) What is there to know? If the number is 1%, it is 10 times worse than 0.1%.

2) Do you believe your state/county/school will quarantine or shut down for "just the flu"?

The answer is obvious.

KlangFool
No, the answer is not obvious. Do you remember the H1N1? Why not the mass hysteria?
There was: Markets tanking, schools closing, “state of emergency” declared, travel restrictions

There just wasn’t social media spreading the hysterics nonstop
Uhhhh, all the currently mainstream social media sites were popular in 2009.
BoggledHead2
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:23 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
People are dying. Look at what’s happening in Italy right now, largely because too many people had this attitude. Things went better in China and South Korea, where nobody had this attitude.
People are dying in Italy because:

1/5 of the population is over 65 (oldest country in Europe)
1/5 of the population smokes
They are only testing the most severe cases, skewing data sample size

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com ... italy/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.co ... ly-seniors

No, it’s not because of “attitude”. It’d be great if people read articles instead of just headlines and posting their faux outrage.

It is sad people are dying. However, the world isn’t ending.
KlangFool
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KlangFool »

MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:11 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:01 pm
villars wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm It is very logical that stock market should tank when economic activity is curtailed in response to the epidemic. It is not just the number of deaths. We could have an earthquake tomorrow kill more than Covid and stock market will stay good. See Tsunami disaster for an event with a huge human toll but not as much disruption to the economy.

Covid is deadlier than flu , at least in elderly and vulnerable . Deaths from flu are far more because of number of infections. Governments (and people) are curtailing economic activity to prevent the Covid infection numbers from reaching flu numbers , otherwise deaths will be in hundreds of thousands.

Once the epidemic subsides ( and they always do) economic activity will return to normal. Some companies may be bankrupt by then. New ones would arise to take their place . That is how capitalism works. By staying in whole market you make sure you pick up the winners in the post-epidemic economy.
Villars,

With all due respect, this is not how capitalism works. The hysteria to this is beyond anything we have ever seen, and because of the fear that has been injected to the overreacting masses, it will force otherwise solvent companies to go under. IMHO, the reaction would not have been the same 10/15 years ago, without the non-stop social/media coverage.
MWONE,

China is not a capitalist and democratic country. China quarantined half of her country about one month ago. And, China passed a law to arrest anyone in China that posted any news on the Coronavirus.

So, whatever reason that forces China to quarantine her county is definitely not based on overreacting masses.

KlangFool
Klang,

Quite frankly, I am just trying to wrap myself around what is happening in the United States right now. Why is the market selling off and why are we so panicked now when we weren't during the H1N1?
MWONE,

I do not know what will happen in the USA. What I know is the annual flu season killed about 60K Chinese in China. It would take a lot more than that number for China to quarantine half of her country.

Human lives are a lot cheaper in China.

KlangFool

P.S.: China's official reported death for Coronavirus is about 3,000.
Last edited by KlangFool on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
BoggledHead2
Posts: 562
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by BoggledHead2 »

KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:26 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:40 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:31 pm

I don't know. It is a very bad outbreak nonetheless. Most
people will recover why I don't know. Those darn cruise ships
are always catching some strange disease but never where they
had to be quarantined like this one.
patrick013,

1) What is there to know? If the number is 1%, it is 10 times worse than 0.1%.

2) Do you believe your state/county/school will quarantine or shut down for "just the flu"?

The answer is obvious.

KlangFool
No, the answer is not obvious. Do you remember the H1N1? Why not the mass hysteria?
There was: Markets tanking, schools closing, “state of emergency” declared, travel restrictions

There just wasn’t social media spreading the hysterics nonstop
Uhhhh, all the currently mainstream social media sites were popular in 2009.
Uhhh,

https://ourworldindata.org/rise-of-social-media

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=so ... qyaPIRhaAJ

Rise / prevalence of social media in every aspect of life has changed significantly in the last decade ... and not for the benefit of mankind
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 pm This is a virus that leaves 80% of people infected feeling fine, 20% of people ill enough to need medical attention, and of that 20% - almost all of them will live.

Why bother with facts? Especially when the overall mortality rate will be even lower as the confirmed cases total increases - since most cases are barely anything more than a common cold

The overreaction to this “pandemic” is absolutely ridiculous
I would suggest getting your head out of the sand and read what is happening in Italy. And then tell me why things will be different here. American exceptionalism? Or maybe exceptional leadership? smh :oops:
I have

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5 ... amp%3Dtrue

“ . The average age of coronavirus patients who have died because of the virus in Italy is 81, according to the National Health Institute. Italy, which has one the world’s oldest populations, could be facing a higher mortality rate as a result of its above-average elderly population. “Italy is the oldest country in the oldest continent in the world,” says Lorenzo Casani, the health director of a clinic for elderly people in Lombardy told TIME. “We have a lot of people over 65.” ... “

Casani also suggests the mortality rate might be higher than average because Italy is testing only the critical cases ...

Casani says that pollution in northern Italy could be a factor in higher death rates.
And the US has a much higher incidence of comorbidity factors than average, especially obesity and diabetes. Projections are that the CFR in the US are likely to be closer to the 3.1% in Italy than the 0.9% in South Korea due to the above and also the fact that the US healthcare system is inferior to those of both Lombardy and Korea.
KyleAAA
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by KyleAAA »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:32 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:26 pm
BoggledHead2 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 pm
MWONE wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:40 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 pm

patrick013,

1) What is there to know? If the number is 1%, it is 10 times worse than 0.1%.

2) Do you believe your state/county/school will quarantine or shut down for "just the flu"?

The answer is obvious.

KlangFool
No, the answer is not obvious. Do you remember the H1N1? Why not the mass hysteria?
There was: Markets tanking, schools closing, “state of emergency” declared, travel restrictions

There just wasn’t social media spreading the hysterics nonstop
Uhhhh, all the currently mainstream social media sites were popular in 2009.
Uhhh,

https://ourworldindata.org/rise-of-social-media

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=so ... qyaPIRhaAJ

Rise / prevalence of social media in every aspect of life has changed significantly in the last decade ... and not for the benefit of mankind
Facebook and Twitter were both pervasive in 2009, especially in the developed world. Not sure what hole you’ve been living in.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Horsefly
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Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

Post by Horsefly »

So, with all due respect, this thread seems to have wandered badly from the original question: How is this pandemic different from 2008?

I guess it's good that I didn't notice the thread 'til now.

I lived through 1987, 2001, and 2008, and stayed "all in" through them all.

I will say, it seems like this is different. Different in some good ways, and some bad ways. It seems like 2008 was very scary. Many of our financial institutions were over-leveraged and on the verge of collapse. We really were on the edge of a second great depression. 1987 and 2001 both felt scary, but not like 2008.

This time feels scary too, but the economy was really in great shape just two months ago. Banks seem to be in great shape. That should provide some cushion. However, this crisis is taking consumers out of the game. That's huge.

For me, I'm still feeling like I was up more in 2019 than I'm down since then. I don't need much of it in the foreseeable future. I haven't sold anything, and still don't plan to. Stay the course.
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