NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

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NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:14 pm

I knew they had to do this. Figured it was the TV networks that were insisting on games in empty stadiums:
The latest Thursday: The NCAA called off its men’s and women’s annual March Madness tournaments after initially ruling they would be played before no fans. Earlier, 14 conference basketball tournaments -- including the SEC, ACC, Pac-12, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, and American Athletic Conference -- were canceled.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sport ... =home-page
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:22 pm

More bad news for Las Vegas. March Madness is a crazy time of year at the books.
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Normchad » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:23 pm

Wow! you know it's bad when rich people miss a pay day.....

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by dunkmachine » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm

Last night when the NBA suspended its season is when my opinion that this is hysteria/mass panic sort of switched over to a "this is real" mindset. I knew the NCAA would follow suit today. It stinks since I'm a huge Kansas Jayhawks fan and they would have been the favorite to win this year.

After reading, I know that quarantines work and minimizing large accumulation of people seems to be logical. I'm relatively young and healthy, so I'm not worried about this virus, but at the same time, I don't want to infect older people or those who may have underlying conditions which they would be more susceptible to getting critically ill. It may just be slightly more deadly than the flu, but I think it spreads at least twice as easy.

The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Normchad » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:43 pm

Also, the regular flu kills between 16,000 and 60,000 a year. And millions of people don’t bother getting a free vaccine for it....

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by ryman554 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:44 pm

dunkmachine wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
And how does this statistic affect the transmission of this virus? Do we know it's transmitted via urine and/or feces? Or just via spittle droplets?

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:50 pm

PGA golf to play without fans. Maybe....

Next down will be the Kentucky Derby. Wait for it...
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:51 pm

dunkmachine wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
Last night when the NBA suspended its season is when my opinion that this is hysteria/mass panic sort of switched over to a "this is real" mindset. I knew the NCAA would follow suit today. It stinks since I'm a huge Kansas Jayhawks fan and they would have been the favorite to win this year.

After reading, I know that quarantines work and minimizing large accumulation of people seems to be logical. I'm relatively young and healthy, so I'm not worried about this virus, but at the same time, I don't want to infect older people or those who may have underlying conditions which they would be more susceptible to getting critically ill. It may just be slightly more deadly than the flu, but I think it spreads at least twice as easy.

The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
This reminds me of one of all time favorite jokes.

A Harvard grad and Yale grad met in the bathroom during halftime of The Game. The Harvard graduate said, "Didn't they teach you to wash your hands at Yale?" The Yale grad responded, "They taught us not to pee on our hands."
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Gnirk » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:51 pm

My DH is extremely disappointed; he’s a die-hard Gonzaga fan and says they could have played without audiences and just televised it.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by dunkmachine » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:54 pm

ryman554 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:44 pm
dunkmachine wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
And how does this statistic affect the transmission of this virus? Do we know it's transmitted via urine and/or feces? Or just via spittle droplets?
You're probably right, it may not be spread directly from urine or feces. However, if somebody isn't washing their hands after using the bathroom, I bet they are the type of person to cough or sneeze into their hands without washing afterwards and then shakes hands with somebody, then that person touches their mouth...

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by ryman554 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm

Normchad wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:43 pm
Also, the regular flu kills between 16,000 and 60,000 a year. And millions of people don’t bother getting a free vaccine for it....
While I agree with the sentiment that it's overblown, there are ~3million people in the US 80+. That's the average age of death so far due to this virus. At a lower estimate of a 2% fatality rate for this age group (likely a lot more at nursing homes), we're talking at least that many elderly, alone, were this to spread to the entire population. They are still reporting 2% death rate overall (I believe it is not this high, but I don't have the data, the CDC does) with no real way to contain it now since some folks are asymptomatic, so that's an upper limit of ~6 million dead in USA.

For those that don't die, we're talking intensive care for pneumonia for, again, an estimate of 20% of the cases for this age group. That's 600k hospitalized in quite a bit of discomfort.

So, this virus is likely more deadly than the flu. By an order of magnitude. The larger question is if getting it once grants immunity so this is a one-time thing or if we get culled by 2% a year from now to eternity.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Picksburgh » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:57 pm

On the upside I’ll have a perfect bracket this year!

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Normchad » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:24 pm

ryman554 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm
Normchad wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:43 pm
Also, the regular flu kills between 16,000 and 60,000 a year. And millions of people don’t bother getting a free vaccine for it....
While I agree with the sentiment that it's overblown, there are ~3million people in the US 80+. That's the average age of death so far due to this virus. At a lower estimate of a 2% fatality rate for this age group (likely a lot more at nursing homes), we're talking at least that many elderly, alone, were this to spread to the entire population. They are still reporting 2% death rate overall (I believe it is not this high, but I don't have the data, the CDC does) with no real way to contain it now since some folks are asymptomatic, so that's an upper limit of ~6 million dead in USA.

For those that don't die, we're talking intensive care for pneumonia for, again, an estimate of 20% of the cases for this age group. That's 600k hospitalized in quite a bit of discomfort.

So, this virus is likely more deadly than the flu. By an order of magnitude. The larger question is if getting it once grants immunity so this is a one-time thing or if we get culled by 2% a year from now to eternity.
Good point. I did not mean to say it was overblown. I was only pointing peoples failure to take simple measures to protect themselves and others.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:04 pm

The NCAA championship wasn’t canceled during WWII. Too bad we don’t have more of the greatest generation around. People are wimps these days.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by prairieman » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 pm

I have two comments based on things I have seen and read:
The idea isn’t to stop the disease, but rather just to slow its spread rate down. You and I will probably get the disease sometime, but hopefully the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed with patients if our cases are of the serious kind. If you’re young, then the same could be said for your parents, coach, grand parents, etc... Survival rate improves with better care.
Second, my understanding is that just being in a room and breathing the same air as a person who is incubating with the disease (no cough or sneeze) is enough to get the disease.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by vasu100 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:22 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:04 pm
The NCAA championship wasn’t canceled during WWII. Too bad we don’t have more of the greatest generation around. People are wimps these days.
Cancelling NCAA would have had no impact on War. But cancelling NCAA and large gatherings can slow down spread of the virus.

It’s just being prudent. Doesn’t seem “wimpy” to me. The word “wimp” usually has negative connotations, I don’t see it that way from my side

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:34 pm

dunkmachine wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
Last night when the NBA suspended its season is when my opinion that this is hysteria/mass panic sort of switched over to a "this is real" mindset. I knew the NCAA would follow suit today. It stinks since I'm a huge Kansas Jayhawks fan and they would have been the favorite to win this year.

After reading, I know that quarantines work and minimizing large accumulation of people seems to be logical. I'm relatively young and healthy, so I'm not worried about this virus, but at the same time, I don't want to infect older people or those who may have underlying conditions which they would be more susceptible to getting critically ill. It may just be slightly more deadly than the flu, but I think it spreads at least twice as easy.

The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
I wash my hands before, and after. Why? Because I would be touching my junk with dirty hands, otherwise. My junk has been covered in layers of cotton, nice and clean, unlike my hands. I also wash my hands after, not because I've handled my junk, but because I touch the urinal handle to flush.

If I were limited to only one hand wash, I would wash first.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:35 pm

vasu100 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:22 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:04 pm
The NCAA championship wasn’t canceled during WWII. Too bad we don’t have more of the greatest generation around. People are wimps these days.
Cancelling NCAA would have had no impact on War. But cancelling NCAA and large gatherings can slow down spread of the virus.

It’s just being prudent. Doesn’t seem “wimpy” to me. The word “wimp” usually has negative connotations, I don’t see it that way from my side
When they said yesterday that they would play the games in empty stadiums, I thought that was so idiotic that it wouldn't fly. The only reason I could figure for this is $$$$. The TV networks were going to pay millions and millions to the participating schools and had millions and millions lined up in sold advertising. It's pretty significant that all this greed got over-ruled, and I wouldn't take that lightly looking out to what's coming for the economy and for the markets.
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:40 pm

ryman554 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm
So, this virus is likely more deadly than the flu. By an order of magnitude. The larger question is if getting it once grants immunity so this is a one-time thing or if we get culled by 2% a year from now to eternity.
Oof, that would be like a 2% annual management fee on your AUM. But with human lives instead.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Iridium » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:52 pm

prairieman wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 pm
Second, my understanding is that just being in a room and breathing the same air as a person who is incubating with the disease (no cough or sneeze) is enough to get the disease.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... tions.html

"The contribution of small respirable particles, sometimes called aerosols or droplet nuclei, to close proximity transmission is currently uncertain. However, airborne transmission from person-to-person over long distances is unlikely."

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Caduceus » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm

prairieman wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 pm
I have two comments based on things I have seen and read:
The idea isn’t to stop the disease, but rather just to slow its spread rate down. You and I will probably get the disease sometime, but hopefully the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed with patients if our cases are of the serious kind. If you’re young, then the same could be said for your parents, coach, grand parents, etc... Survival rate improves with better care.
Second, my understanding is that just being in a room and breathing the same air as a person who is incubating with the disease (no cough or sneeze) is enough to get the disease.
I think a lot of people have probably already caught it and recovered from it. The NYT ran an article about an epidemiologist in California who was so frustrated with the CDC she went ahead and tested for coronavirus on her own in a local population. She found, within a short period of time, that there were seemingly healthy people who tested positive for it who weren't showing any symptoms.

There are many reputable infectious diseases experts who say that in all likelihood, the virus has already been here for a while. And if you think about Wuhan, the virus seems to have burnt itself out fairly quickly. Wuhan isn't some small county. Quarantining Wuhan just meant the virus had a chance to spread like wildfire in a population with no native immunity to it, and 10 weeks later, they are closing down all the makeshift hospitals because there are no more patients. I mean - the Wuhan quarantines may have helped other parts of China and the world, but surely not Wuhan itself, and even here, the virus just burnt itself out.

I don't think the coronavirus is nothing. But China was the first nation to experience it and they're already over the top of the hill, it seems, in less than three months. Wuhan is probably the safest place to be in the world right now, in terms of not getting the coronavirus - everyone there is already immune. :P

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:47 pm

ryman554 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm


While I agree with the sentiment that it's overblown, there are ~3million people in the US 80+. That's the average age of death so far due to this virus. At a lower estimate of a 2% fatality rate for this age group (likely a lot more at nursing homes),
I can't find the source but the fatality rate for those in their later years is approaching 20% (want to say 18% of those over 80, and a lower double-digit number for those 70+).

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by JonnyDVM » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm

vasu100 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:22 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:04 pm
The NCAA championship wasn’t canceled during WWII. Too bad we don’t have more of the greatest generation around. People are wimps these days.
Cancelling NCAA would have had no impact on War. But cancelling NCAA and large gatherings can slow down spread of the virus.

It’s just being prudent. Doesn’t seem “wimpy” to me. The word “wimp” usually has negative connotations, I don’t see it that way from my side
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?

If cancelling it during WW2 would have helped us win I suspect they would have done so. I thought I was taking crazy pills in 2016. I may be taking crazy pills again.

Now I’m questioning stay the course. How can you stay the course when so many people refuse to accept basic science when they’re being clubbed over the head with it? This can’t be fully priced in yet.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Kenkat » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:04 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:04 pm
The NCAA championship wasn’t canceled during WWII. Too bad we don’t have more of the greatest generation around. People are wimps these days.
The greatest generation are the ones set to croak at the greatest rate if we don’t take some steps to slow this thing down. There’s not many of them left - let’s hang on to them as long as possible.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Rxwolf » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:22 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.
It is not needless panic. If you are only looking at back data, does not “seem” bad. However, this will very likely be an exponential growth of some unknown slope and duration. Healthcare does not like to play unknowns when we only have x number of negative pressure rooms. Do you want to be in the room next door to patient with covid19 but no barrier between you and the other patient? If not, stop saying ignorant stuff. “Needless”. Go to cdc.gov, understand how “flatten the curve” saves lives. My personal opinion is about 50% will be exposed, however due to the leadership of the freaking NBA, we might reduce the spike. The NBA pointed the direction for America to go. Also, knew the NCAA would try to keep games on, they only care about money. Should have been making tests when cruise ship in Japan hit headlines.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:50 am

Rxwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:22 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.
It is not needless panic. If you are only looking at back data, does not “seem” bad. However, this will very likely be an exponential growth of some unknown slope and duration. Healthcare does not like to play unknowns when we only have x number of negative pressure rooms. Do you want to be in the room next door to patient with covid19 but no barrier between you and the other patient? If not, stop saying ignorant stuff. “Needless”. Go to cdc.gov, understand how “flatten the curve” saves lives. My personal opinion is about 50% will be exposed, however due to the leadership of the freaking NBA, we might reduce the spike. The NBA pointed the direction for America to go. Also, knew the NCAA would try to keep games on, they only care about money. Should have been making tests when cruise ship in Japan hit headlines.
Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by ryman554 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:50 am
Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US.
You're right, it is not. It's potentially more deadly to the group because it's less fatal to the one.

I (almost) 100% agree with your perception that the panic is overblown. But come live in my neighborhood. I've now got 5-6 cases in my local elementary school area and one suspected case in my workplace.

It ran roughshod through a nursing home or ten up in Seattle.

NBA and Soccer players are showing up with cases at a rather alarming rate.

Folks that seem to pass through Mar-a-lago (Brazilians and Australians) seem to be showing up with it.

Since anecdotes do not equal data, let me say this: there is no question that the measured spread rate for this disease is 2+ (every person who gets it infects at least 2 others). That is the very definition of an exponential growth, that requires some extreme measures to combat.

Look at the COVID-19 case website. There is no question that Europe is on the exponential growth portion while Asia seems to be plateauing. I suspect hte US is ~month or so behind Europe, consistent with anecdotal data indicated above.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by ryman554 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:27 am

Caduceus wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm
I think a lot of people have probably already caught it and recovered from it. The NYT ran an article about an epidemiologist in California who was so frustrated with the CDC she went ahead and tested for coronavirus on her own in a local population. She found, within a short period of time, that there were seemingly healthy people who tested positive for it who weren't showing any symptoms.

There are many reputable infectious diseases experts who say that in all likelihood, the virus has already been here for a while. And if you think about Wuhan, the virus seems to have burnt itself out fairly quickly. Wuhan isn't some small county. Quarantining Wuhan just meant the virus had a chance to spread like wildfire in a population with no native immunity to it, and 10 weeks later, they are closing down all the makeshift hospitals because there are no more patients. I mean - the Wuhan quarantines may have helped other parts of China and the world, but surely not Wuhan itself, and even here, the virus just burnt itself out.

I don't think the coronavirus is nothing. But China was the first nation to experience it and they're already over the top of the hill, it seems, in less than three months. Wuhan is probably the safest place to be in the world right now, in terms of not getting the coronavirus - everyone there is already immune. :P
Can you please post and/or PM me the references for these studies?

My gut tells me the same thing, but I am not an epidemiologist.

(but I will disagree with Wuhan being safe -- it's like the lone traveler heading into a new frontier and encounters a disease he has never seen before but the native population is already immune to. It does not turn out well for the explorers. Just like it didn't turn out so well (in reverse) as the Europeans with diseases met the native Americans)
Last edited by ryman554 on Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Caduceus » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:31 am

ryman554 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:27 am
Caduceus wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm
I think a lot of people have probably already caught it and recovered from it. The NYT ran an article about an epidemiologist in California who was so frustrated with the CDC she went ahead and tested for coronavirus on her own in a local population. She found, within a short period of time, that there were seemingly healthy people who tested positive for it who weren't showing any symptoms.

There are many reputable infectious diseases experts who say that in all likelihood, the virus has already been here for a while. And if you think about Wuhan, the virus seems to have burnt itself out fairly quickly. Wuhan isn't some small county. Quarantining Wuhan just meant the virus had a chance to spread like wildfire in a population with no native immunity to it, and 10 weeks later, they are closing down all the makeshift hospitals because there are no more patients. I mean - the Wuhan quarantines may have helped other parts of China and the world, but surely not Wuhan itself, and even here, the virus just burnt itself out.

I don't think the coronavirus is nothing. But China was the first nation to experience it and they're already over the top of the hill, it seems, in less than three months. Wuhan is probably the safest place to be in the world right now, in terms of not getting the coronavirus - everyone there is already immune. :P
Can you please post and/or PM me the references for these studies?

My gut tells me the same thing, but I am not an epidemiologist.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/c ... elays.html

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by ryman554 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am

Caduceus wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:31 am
ryman554 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:27 am
Caduceus wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm
I think a lot of people have probably already caught it and recovered from it. The NYT ran an article about an epidemiologist in California who was so frustrated with the CDC she went ahead and tested for coronavirus on her own in a local population. She found, within a short period of time, that there were seemingly healthy people who tested positive for it who weren't showing any symptoms.

There are many reputable infectious diseases experts who say that in all likelihood, the virus has already been here for a while. And if you think about Wuhan, the virus seems to have burnt itself out fairly quickly. Wuhan isn't some small county. Quarantining Wuhan just meant the virus had a chance to spread like wildfire in a population with no native immunity to it, and 10 weeks later, they are closing down all the makeshift hospitals because there are no more patients. I mean - the Wuhan quarantines may have helped other parts of China and the world, but surely not Wuhan itself, and even here, the virus just burnt itself out.

I don't think the coronavirus is nothing. But China was the first nation to experience it and they're already over the top of the hill, it seems, in less than three months. Wuhan is probably the safest place to be in the world right now, in terms of not getting the coronavirus - everyone there is already immune. :P
Can you please post and/or PM me the references for these studies?

My gut tells me the same thing, but I am not an epidemiologist.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/c ... elays.html
Thanks. Stupid paywall, however... =(

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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by TropikThunder » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:37 am

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:50 am
Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US.
Well sure, you won’t see exponential growth when we aren’t testing people. To date, the US has tested ~11,000 people. Total. Since this started. South Korea is testing >20,000 per day.

Maverick3320
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Maverick3320 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:25 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.
...you do realize that the 40 million flu infections don't all hit at the same time, right?

Garfieldthecat
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Garfieldthecat » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:06 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:50 am
Rxwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:22 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.
It is not needless panic. If you are only looking at back data, does not “seem” bad. However, this will very likely be an exponential growth of some unknown slope and duration. Healthcare does not like to play unknowns when we only have x number of negative pressure rooms. Do you want to be in the room next door to patient with covid19 but no barrier between you and the other patient? If not, stop saying ignorant stuff. “Needless”. Go to cdc.gov, understand how “flatten the curve” saves lives. My personal opinion is about 50% will be exposed, however due to the leadership of the freaking NBA, we might reduce the spike. The NBA pointed the direction for America to go. Also, knew the NCAA would try to keep games on, they only care about money. Should have been making tests when cruise ship in Japan hit headlines.
Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US.
Way to be misinformed. Take a look at these graphs on this webpage:

https://dersticher.github.io/Covid19-Chart/?country=US#

Also, look at this twitter post of case volumes from several countries. Notice how all the countries are having the same growth rate?

https://twitter.com/markjhandley/status ... 38112?s=21

And this is with little to no testing due to the governments incompetence. If they were testing more people, we would be way way higher.

rkhusky
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:46 pm

Maverick3320 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:25 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.
...you do realize that the 40 million flu infections don't all hit at the same time, right?
40 million over a 5 month flu season equals 8 million per month, which is 270,000 per day, in the US. We have seen less than that over the whole world over the entire 2-3 month coronavirus period.

rkhusky
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:50 pm

Garfieldthecat wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:06 pm
Way to be misinformed. Take a look at these graphs on this webpage:

https://dersticher.github.io/Covid19-Chart/?country=US#

Also, look at this twitter post of case volumes from several countries. Notice how all the countries are having the same growth rate?

https://twitter.com/markjhandley/status ... 38112?s=21

And this is with little to no testing due to the governments incompetence. If they were testing more people, we would be way way higher.
Number of deaths in US looks pretty linear to me. To really tell if something is exponential, you have to do more than just look at a chart.

dukeblue219
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by dukeblue219 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:51 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:46 pm
Maverick3320 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:25 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?
We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic.

The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year.
...you do realize that the 40 million flu infections don't all hit at the same time, right?
40 million over a 5 month flu season equals 8 million per month, which is 270,000 per day, in the US. We have seen less than that over the whole world over the entire 2-3 month coronavirus period.
Just because the hospital system can withstand those 8 million infections per month doesn't mean it can handle another 1 million of a disease with a vastly higher hospitalization rate.

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cheese_breath
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by cheese_breath » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:59 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:51 pm
dunkmachine wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
Last night when the NBA suspended its season is when my opinion that this is hysteria/mass panic sort of switched over to a "this is real" mindset. I knew the NCAA would follow suit today. It stinks since I'm a huge Kansas Jayhawks fan and they would have been the favorite to win this year.

After reading, I know that quarantines work and minimizing large accumulation of people seems to be logical. I'm relatively young and healthy, so I'm not worried about this virus, but at the same time, I don't want to infect older people or those who may have underlying conditions which they would be more susceptible to getting critically ill. It may just be slightly more deadly than the flu, but I think it spreads at least twice as easy.

The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
This reminds me of one of all time favorite jokes.

A Harvard grad and Yale grad met in the bathroom during halftime of The Game. The Harvard graduate said, "Didn't they teach you to wash your hands at Yale?" The Yale grad responded, "They taught us not to pee on our hands."
And that reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's date's father owns the pizzeria.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

Caduceus
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Caduceus » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:37 am
rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:50 am
Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US.
Well sure, you won’t see exponential growth when we aren’t testing people. To date, the US has tested ~11,000 people. Total. Since this started. South Korea is testing >20,000 per day.
Well, but if this is the sort of virus that unless you test you can't even tell it is there ... why are people so afraid of it then? In places like Indonesia, the only cases they've found are the ones where they've done contact tracing on known infected. Meanwhile, surely there are thousands of people out there over the last three months who have already been infected. No one knows. Life goes on.

When you get Ebola in a country, you don't need a test to know that s has hit the fan. People can't just go around being blissfully ignorant.

dukeblue219
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by dukeblue219 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:50 pm
Number of deaths in US looks pretty linear to me. To really tell if something is exponential, you have to do more than just look at a chart.
That's a logarithmic chart.

rkhusky
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:04 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:50 pm
Number of deaths in US looks pretty linear to me. To really tell if something is exponential, you have to do more than just look at a chart.
That's a logarithmic chart.
The chart at https://dersticher.github.io/Covid19-Chart/?country=US# has an option for linear or logarithmic.

It would be interesting to see similar charts for seasonal flu in the US to see how the beginning of that yearly epidemic looks.

dukeblue219
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by dukeblue219 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:04 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:50 pm
Number of deaths in US looks pretty linear to me. To really tell if something is exponential, you have to do more than just look at a chart.
That's a logarithmic chart.
The chart at https://dersticher.github.io/Covid19-Chart/?country=US# has an option for linear or logarithmic.
Subject to interpretation, but to my eye the deaths for the US and other countries looks like a line on a log-linear chart, meaning it's exponential. The US data is a little weird because we had that huge spike of deaths up front in the nursing home in WA and the sample size is still thankfully low, but in general (look at the global exgChina data) the death rate is still growing exponentially.

One of the troubles we'll face coming out of this - if all goes well - is the question of whether it wasn't that big of deal at all or if the mass shutdowns are what saved us. That will be hard to know and harder to communicate.

rkhusky
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:10 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:04 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:50 pm
Number of deaths in US looks pretty linear to me. To really tell if something is exponential, you have to do more than just look at a chart.
That's a logarithmic chart.
The chart at https://dersticher.github.io/Covid19-Chart/?country=US# has an option for linear or logarithmic.
Subject to interpretation, but to my eye the deaths for the US and other countries looks like a line on a log-linear chart, meaning it's exponential. The US data is a little weird because we had that huge spike of deaths up front in the nursing home in WA and the sample size is still thankfully low, but in general (look at the global exgChina data) the death rate is still growing exponentially.

One of the troubles we'll face coming out of this - if all goes well - is the question of whether it wasn't that big of deal at all or if the mass shutdowns are what saved us. That will be hard to know and harder to communicate.
Even harder to eyeball when there is noise in the data, which is amplified when there is little data at the beginning of a supposed epidemic. You need statistical analysis to remove the subjective element and provide confidence limits.

My fear is that this massive response is going to be the norm going forward for every new virus seen in Asia.

Frank Grimes
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Frank Grimes » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:13 pm

Caduceus wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:37 am
rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:50 am
Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US.
Well sure, you won’t see exponential growth when we aren’t testing people. To date, the US has tested ~11,000 people. Total. Since this started. South Korea is testing >20,000 per day.
Well, but if this is the sort of virus that unless you test you can't even tell it is there ... why are people so afraid of it then? In places like Indonesia, the only cases they've found are the ones where they've done contact tracing on known infected. Meanwhile, surely there are thousands of people out there over the last three months who have already been infected. No one knows. Life goes on.

When you get Ebola in a country, you don't need a test to know that s has hit the fan. People can't just go around being blissfully ignorant.
You're seeing what's going on in Italy right? There's plenty to be afraid of when the hospital system is overwhelmed with patients needing respiratory assistance and not enough machines to go around.

John Doe 123
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by John Doe 123 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:46 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm
vasu100 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:22 pm
rkhusky wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:04 pm
The NCAA championship wasn’t canceled during WWII. Too bad we don’t have more of the greatest generation around. People are wimps these days.
Cancelling NCAA would have had no impact on War. But cancelling NCAA and large gatherings can slow down spread of the virus.

It’s just being prudent. Doesn’t seem “wimpy” to me. The word “wimp” usually has negative connotations, I don’t see it that way from my side
Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system?

If cancelling it during WW2 would have helped us win I suspect they would have done so. I thought I was taking crazy pills in 2016. I may be taking crazy pills again.

Now I’m questioning stay the course. How can you stay the course when so many people refuse to accept basic science when they’re being clubbed over the head with it? This can’t be fully priced in yet.

We are not China. They can’t weld us into apartment buildings, they can’t disappear us if we come out of our houses when told not to. We are very mobile. We travel everywhere.
+1

I couldn't have said it any better myself.

randomguy
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by randomguy » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:56 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 pm

Now I’m questioning stay the course. How can you stay the course when so many people refuse to accept basic science when they’re being clubbed over the head with it? This can’t be fully priced in yet.
Because everyone knows that people reject basic science and are stupid.:) That is factored into the price. At a high level there is a general feel of how bad things will be. There is some group that thinks the average is too high (stocks dropping another 50% after 20% of the people over 80 die). There are some that think is too low (this will blow over in 2 months like SARS, H1N1, Zikka and the rest did in their countries when we were worried about them spreading the US). And everything in between.

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greg24
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by greg24 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:57 pm

Have the doubters seen what is happening in Italy?

These steps are to avoid becoming Italy.

I hope it works, and all the doubters will get to say "it was a huge waste of time."

Ignorance is bliss.

rkhusky
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by rkhusky » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:58 pm

40 dead from the coronavirus in the US. And at least 20,000 dead from seasonal flu.

If the coronavirus peters out and it is clear that the massive shutdown of the US didn't do squat, I am going to be seriously irritated that they cancelled March Madness. My kids and I were looking forward to it for months.

If all it took to defeat the coronavirus was the standard precautions against the seasonal flu (washing hands, avoiding contact with people when sick,etc), and we didn't need this shutdown, heads should roll. If we don't get thousands of deaths in this country, then medical talking heads that talked about hundreds of thousands or millions dead should be fired.

TropikThunder
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by TropikThunder » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:46 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:58 pm
If we don't get thousands of deaths in this country, then medical talking heads that talked about hundreds of thousands or millions dead should be fired.
How many COVID deaths would it take before you considered it significant? Bear in mind, the Greatest Generation that you so admire has a 15% mortality rate from coronavirus.

Fair's fair though, so if it does blow up, then should those minimizing concerns and dragging their feet be fired too?

Jags4186
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Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Post by Jags4186 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:47 pm

Personally, I'm fine that UVA will continue to remain national champions for another year. :wink:

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