The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

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CULater
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The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:29 am

Not long ago I posted that major asset classes (stocks, long bonds, gold) were all going up in price together, which seemed rather ominous given that both risk-on and risk-off asset classes were rallying together. Now I see that they are all going in the toilet together, which seems equally perplexing. Indiscriminate selling of everything. I don't recall this happening even during the 2008-09 crash.
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Ramjet
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Ramjet » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:32 am

EDV is up 19.5% YTD

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by stormcrow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:35 am

Long bonds were certainly disappointing yesterday.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Forester » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:35 am

Gold is up 1.5% since the S&P 500 high. It's holding up better than 2008, possibly because bonds have less juice to squeeze. Gold is slightly ahead of US Agg bonds too.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Call_Me_Op » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:36 am

Long bonds make a precarious "safe haven" at current interest rates.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by firebirdparts » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:46 am

There was an "everything decrease day" but that's far from a crash. We had all those days where everything went up, and I couldn't understand that. The increase in long bonds this month was just too sharp. I don't know how you'd know if gold is high or not, but it's certainly up.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:49 am

Even my ST TIPS have been down by 1% or more last few days. Very large move for these.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Forester » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:52 am

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:36 am
Long bonds make a precarious "safe haven" at current interest rates.
We will see how diversified the two fund portfolio really is. Never understood the reticence to make room for gold if one is carrying all that dead wood of bonds. There are people who are 30/70 and they believe this is safe & conservative.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Call_Me_Op » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:55 am

Forester wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:52 am
Call_Me_Op wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:36 am
Long bonds make a precarious "safe haven" at current interest rates.
We will see how diversified the two fund portfolio really is. Never understood the reticence to make room for gold if one is carrying all that dead wood of bonds. There are people who are 30/70 and they believe this is safe & conservative.
The 3 fund portfolio, as I understand it, does not include long bonds but instead uses intermediate bonds, which have much lower risk. 30/70 is about as safe as you can get (in terms of volatility) except perhaps in black swan events where 100% bonds holds up better (but not a recommended AA).
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:57 am

So, market down by 9% so far today and Gold is flushing down by more than 3%. Long treasuries up a bit. Second time gold has flushed along with stocks, so not much help when market is crashing.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:05 am

Now I see that ST TIPS are falling too. Long treasuries are about to go into the red. Everyone must be dumping and going to cash.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by effigy98 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:08 am

In this environment I use gold, treasuries, and a little SQQQ just in case the gold and treasuries do not help enough. This is turning into a gain. Puts can do the same on something like HYG and probably even safer and more profitable once I go thru the fidelity gauntlet to get those enabled.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Starfox » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:09 am

I had plans to buy Total us stock today as it’s down 7-8% right now, but I see my muni fund equivalent VTEB, is down 5% too. Suboptimal.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by DB2 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:11 am

This is going to turn into another financial crisis. I think we're going to see the Fed do some things not seen before.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by effigy98 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 am

Fed going to buy stocks. Can they buy enough? Another thing we might see is they just shut down the market.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Jebediah » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:25 am

I heard they were going to discontinue money.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Kenkat » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:26 am

Total Bond Market Index is up 3.67% for the year as of yesterday.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by hagridshut » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:33 am

Bitcoin (BTC) is sitting at $5,995. It was over $10,300 just a month ago.

A drop of 42% :shock:

So much for "digital gold". BTC is crashing harder than stocks!
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by effigy98 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:34 am

Is it guns, ammo, and bunker time yet?

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by mrwalken » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:35 am

Cash is king.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Double Dog » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 am

effigy98 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 am
Fed going to buy stocks. Can they buy enough? Another thing we might see is they just shut down the market.
That's my prediction. We're going to see a "stock market holiday" soon where all major US exchanges are ordered closed for a week.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by effigy98 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:38 am

mrwalken wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:35 am
Cash is king.
True! And you can use that cash as Toilet paper and heat your bunker with it. I think I saw some where that $1 is worth less then one sheet of TP right now lol.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Moochy » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 am

effigy98 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 am
Fed going to buy stocks. Can they buy enough? Another thing we might see is they just shut down the market.
They can't buy stocks unless their charter is changed.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Starfox » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:47 am

I’m surprised to see VTEB down almost same as VTI today (-6%).
I will reconsider what my fixed income should be when the world and markets recover. I wanted VTEB (intermediate term muni) to not fluctuate too much when stocks fall, and it is failing at that. I may need my fixed income to just hold 50% municipal money market and 50% short term muni.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by rich126 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:03 am

Gold is down 3% so far today.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by effigy98 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:08 am

Moochy wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:44 am
effigy98 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 am
Fed going to buy stocks. Can they buy enough? Another thing we might see is they just shut down the market.
They can't buy stocks unless their charter is changed.
A charter change does not seem out of the realm of possibilities with how desperate political interests are in keeping the market propped up for elections.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by GAAP » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:21 am

Yin and Yang...
What goes up must come down
Spinnin' wheel, got to go round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles, it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony, let the spinnin' wheel spin

You got no money, you got no home
Spinnin' wheel, all alone
Talkin' 'bout your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony, let the spinnin' wheel turn
I know -- not much consolation. :twisted:
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by mervinj7 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:55 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:29 am
Not long ago I posted that major asset classes (stocks, long bonds, gold) were all going up in price together, which seemed rather ominous given that both risk-on and risk-off asset classes were rallying together. Now I see that they are all going in the toilet together, which seems equally perplexing. Indiscriminate selling of everything. I don't recall this happening even during the 2008-09 crash.
Interestingly enough, my best investment last year was installing solar panels. The returns have been killing it this past year after the recent back-to-back rate hikes from PG&E with more to come in 2020 (more than half because of the wildfires).

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by mrspock » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:00 pm

TMF is up 7% today, some bond instruments are doing what they should be.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:19 pm

Gold now down by nearly $60. It is crashing along with stocks.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

I think we can safely say DIVERSIFICATION IS DEAD! There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. Long duration treasuries were massively bid up and now are useless as equity diversifiers. Gold and Commodities are in the toilet. We live in very, very strange times.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Noobvestor » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:26 pm

CULater wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:29 am
Not long ago I posted that major asset classes (stocks, long bonds, gold) were all going up in price together, which seemed rather ominous given that both risk-on and risk-off asset classes were rallying together. Now I see that they are all going in the toilet together, which seems equally perplexing. Indiscriminate selling of everything. I don't recall this happening even during the 2008-09 crash.
Correction/addendum: international developed and emerging + domestic small value were all pretty flat leading into this crash, FWIW.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Dead Man Walking » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:21 pm

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:55 am
Forester wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:52 am
Call_Me_Op wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:36 am
Long bonds make a precarious "safe haven" at current interest rates.
We will see how diversified the two fund portfolio really is. Never understood the reticence to make room for gold if one is carrying all that dead wood of bonds. There are people who are 30/70 and they believe this is safe & conservative.
The 3 fund portfolio, as I understand it, does not include long bonds but instead uses intermediate bonds, which have much lower risk. 30/70 is about as safe as you can get (in terms of volatility) except perhaps in black swan events where 100% bonds holds up better (but not a recommended AA).
Mark Cuban called the caronavirus pandemic a black swan on a sports show that I watched this morning.

DMW

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by expat » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:23 pm

This is the stupidest "crisis" of my lifetime. :)

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by expat » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:24 pm

Now I see that they are all going in the toilet together,=
hmm this could explain toilet paper hoarding??

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by 1789 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:51 pm

DB2 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:11 am
This is going to turn into another financial crisis. I think we're going to see the Fed do some things not seen before.
We are going there
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by ballons » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:57 pm

CULater wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:29 am
Indiscriminate selling of everything.
Index fund bubble theory was talked about a few months ago. Nearly everyone claimed that such talk was ludicrous. This theory is or may be shortly tested.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Atomic » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:12 pm

If you yell "sell, sell, sell" in a deep south accent, all I hear is "sale sale sale."

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by CULater » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 pm

Now I know why people can buy and then hold through a market meltdown. It's not that they're brave -- I think they're simply paralyzed and unable to move. :shock:
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by sd323232 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm

i cannot believe what im seeing, everyday it is 1k, 2K drop, oil crypto, gold, everything crashing.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by shelanman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:17 am

effigy98 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:34 am
Is it guns, ammo, and bunker time yet?
No.

It is toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and canned food time, though, by what my local every store looks like.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by flaccidsteele » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:10 am

CULater wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:29 am
Not long ago I posted that major asset classes (stocks, long bonds, gold) were all going up in price together, which seemed rather ominous given that both risk-on and risk-off asset classes were rallying together. Now I see that they are all going in the toilet together, which seems equally perplexing. Indiscriminate selling of everything. I don't recall this happening even during the 2008-09 crash.
Our bond bubble hasn’t burst yet
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by digarei » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:59 pm

CULater wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 pm
Now I know why people can buy and then hold through a market meltdown. It's not that they're brave -- I think they're simply paralyzed and unable to move. :shock:

I’ll speak for myself:

Nonsense!

In 2008, I was aware but chose to ignore the low balances for several years, throwing more and more of my precious dollars into the abyss.

Now I have less need but equal ability and willingness to accept the risks inherent in an 80/20 portfolio.

I like to quantify losses and gains, although there is no requirement that anyone do so:

My investible assets are down 18.5% since the beginning of the year.

It’s sad but not the end of the world.


I’ll be rebalancing into stocks regardless of market gyrations.

No paralysis. No worries. No regrets.

I hardly think I’m alone in this.
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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:26 pm

digarei wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:59 pm
CULater wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:16 pm
Now I know why people can buy and then hold through a market meltdown. It's not that they're brave -- I think they're simply paralyzed and unable to move. :shock:

I’ll speak for myself:

Nonsense!

No paralysis. No worries. No regrets.

I hardly think I’m alone in this.
You are not.
Trade the news and you will lose.

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Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Post by Pu239 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:59 pm

My vegetable seeds will produce 10x+ returns this season.
Between the idea And the reality...Between the motion And the act...Falls the Shadow - T. S. Eliot

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