The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]

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kosomoto
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The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]

Post by kosomoto »

So is the market pricing in the end of cruise lines?

Norwegian is down 70% and Royal Caribbean down almost as much. Am I the only one thinking buying a basket of all the cruise line stocks seems like a fun idea?

I find it hard to believe the industry will go away and PE based on a normal year’s operation is just 3.5 for Norwegian currently.
LawProf
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by LawProf »

I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
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kosomoto
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by kosomoto »

LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
Quite a risk indeed! The hope is that there would still be at least one that gobbles the rest up and having shares in it.
Random Walker
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Random Walker »

Friend of mine is convinced Carnival Cruises going bankrupt. He shorted it a couple of days ago.

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firebirdparts
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by firebirdparts »

It would be smart in this case to be a fundamentalist investor. These companies are publicly traded, and they'll have to defend their projections every 3 months on a totally public teleconference. I suggest you listen to all 3 of them, or more. If they start losing money, figure out how much of it they have and divide.

if you can get ahold of some annual reports and some analyst reports, you can figure out what they are going to have to spend on debt servicing. Debt is a cruel mistress. You might also be able to make some guess about how much money it costs them to park a ship and lay off the crew. Their business is highly adaptable, but fixed costs are also a cruel mistress.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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celia
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by celia »

From other posts here, it seems like they are not giving you your money back but holding it for you for a future trip. It is my prediction that the future trip will cost more and you will also have to add more money before taking the future trip.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

just yesterday my coworker said she was thinking of buying 100 shares of stock in Carnival Cruise to get their $250 of onboard credits (https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... ou+credits). I asked her how much Carnival Cruise stock is selling for. It looks like it's $24/share. At that price, she'd need to take 10 cruises just to break even. I asked her if she was planning on taking that many (or more) cruises in retirement and she said yes. She still thought it was a good deal potentially and worth buying the stock to get the credits. Not sure if she's buying the stock, but I hope she understands what idiosyncratic risk is.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by dboeger1 »

LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
I'm rather naive and uneducated on such big corporate matters, but isn't bankruptcy actually a protection for shareholders? Isn't it basically telling bond and other debt holders, "Hey, sorry, but we can't pay. See ya later!"? I get it's not that simple... bankruptcies ruin reputations, result in destructive restructuring and/or splitting/selling off assets, hurt credit ratings, etc. But my point is, doesn't a business declare bankruptcy when it has no better alternatives? At that point, shouldn't shareholders logically consider it a positive move? I get that investment values often follow emotions rather than logic, and it is a sign that the business is sort of giving up on its ability to recover organically, but as a long-term investor, I would think if a business is nearly bankrupt one day, and then the next day declares bankruptcy, I would be likely to consider than a positive rather than a negative development (at least as far as business is concerned... my ethical thoughts on it are much different, lol). The problem to me would seem to be unrealistic expectations of an effectively bankrupt company's ability to recover. I suppose that could vary significantly between companies and industries... Enron certainly comes to mind, lol.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by fredflinstone »

kosomoto wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:58 pm So is the market pricing in the end of cruise lines?

Norwegian is down 70% and Royal Caribbean down almost as much. Am I the only one thinking buying a basket of all the cruise line stocks seems like a fun idea?

I find it hard to believe the industry will go away and PE based on a normal year’s operation is just 3.5 for Norwegian currently.
Do you know something about the cruise industry that the rest of the market does not know? If so, go for it!
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by EdNorton »

There is blood on the streets, after I lost $300k during market adjustment of 2018, I took $400k out of stocks and went to bonds/cash. I went to 40/60 equities/cash, fixed income, I learned my lesson. Not ready to start buying yet, I think we still got a other 20% coming.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by TheLaughingCow »

dboeger1 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:15 pm
LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
I'm rather naive and uneducated on such big corporate matters, but isn't bankruptcy actually a protection for shareholders? Isn't it basically telling bond and other debt holders, "Hey, sorry, but we can't pay. See ya later!"? I get it's not that simple... bankruptcies ruin reputations, result in destructive restructuring and/or splitting/selling off assets, hurt credit ratings, etc. But my point is, doesn't a business declare bankruptcy when it has no better alternatives? At that point, shouldn't shareholders logically consider it a positive move? I get that investment values often follow emotions rather than logic, and it is a sign that the business is sort of giving up on its ability to recover organically, but as a long-term investor, I would think if a business is nearly bankrupt one day, and then the next day declares bankruptcy, I would be likely to consider than a positive rather than a negative development (at least as far as business is concerned... my ethical thoughts on it are much different, lol). The problem to me would seem to be unrealistic expectations of an effectively bankrupt company's ability to recover. I suppose that could vary significantly between companies and industries... Enron certainly comes to mind, lol.

Generally, no. Bankruptcy is generally an acknowledgement that the company is worthless and owes more than it can pay. The company, upon declaring bankruptcy, will pay its creditors in any way it can (may not necessarily be in cash) and the creditors will be paid in a certain order. Stockholders always get paid last. Therefore, once a company declares bankruptcy, the stockholders get the scraps, which is usually nothing.

If you are a stockholder in a bankrupt company you have a big line of people in front of you all waiting to collect their piece of the pie...banks, bondholders, plantiffs, employees, pensioners, vendors, other stockholders, the tax man, and more.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Jags4186 »

dboeger1 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:15 pm
LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
I'm rather naive and uneducated on such big corporate matters, but isn't bankruptcy actually a protection for shareholders? Isn't it basically telling bond and other debt holders, "Hey, sorry, but we can't pay. See ya later!"? I get it's not that simple... bankruptcies ruin reputations, result in destructive restructuring and/or splitting/selling off assets, hurt credit ratings, etc. But my point is, doesn't a business declare bankruptcy when it has no better alternatives? At that point, shouldn't shareholders logically consider it a positive move? I get that investment values often follow emotions rather than logic, and it is a sign that the business is sort of giving up on its ability to recover organically, but as a long-term investor, I would think if a business is nearly bankrupt one day, and then the next day declares bankruptcy, I would be likely to consider than a positive rather than a negative development (at least as far as business is concerned... my ethical thoughts on it are much different, lol). The problem to me would seem to be unrealistic expectations of an effectively bankrupt company's ability to recover. I suppose that could vary significantly between companies and industries... Enron certainly comes to mind, lol.
Bankruptcy is when the shareholders get left holding the bag. Bankruptcy protects bondholders as it allows them to orderly liquidate the companies holdings and get something back.

Shareholders rarely get anything in a bankruptcy proceeding as they are usually dead last in line to collect.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by LawProf »

dboeger1 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:15 pm
LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
I'm rather naive and uneducated on such big corporate matters, but isn't bankruptcy actually a protection for shareholders? Isn't it basically telling bond and other debt holders, "Hey, sorry, but we can't pay. See ya later!"? I get it's not that simple... bankruptcies ruin reputations, result in destructive restructuring and/or splitting/selling off assets, hurt credit ratings, etc. But my point is, doesn't a business declare bankruptcy when it has no better alternatives? At that point, shouldn't shareholders logically consider it a positive move? I get that investment values often follow emotions rather than logic, and it is a sign that the business is sort of giving up on its ability to recover organically, but as a long-term investor, I would think if a business is nearly bankrupt one day, and then the next day declares bankruptcy, I would be likely to consider than a positive rather than a negative development (at least as far as business is concerned... my ethical thoughts on it are much different, lol). The problem to me would seem to be unrealistic expectations of an effectively bankrupt company's ability to recover. I suppose that could vary significantly between companies and industries... Enron certainly comes to mind, lol.
Even if the company stays in business, the shares of current stockholders could be canceled. For example, Delta Airlines, last decade:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-delt ... 0820070430
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Jags4186 »

LawProf wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:32 pm

Even if the company stays in business, the shares of current stockholders could be canceled. For example, Delta Airlines, last decade:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-delt ... 0820070430
Same with GM...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motors_Li ... on_Company
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by illumination »

I'm not the right person to ask, I've been "forced" to go on a few cruises. Of the last two times, I got violently ill on one and my kids got violently ill on another. You really don't want to be in tight quarters and someone has projectile vomiting. They really are suicidal if you have something like a pandemic going around. My opinion is they all should have been shut down until this was figured out. Even if the taxpayer reimbursed the lost money for a few weeks, it would probably be pennies on the dollar to what its going to cost the public health.

I definitely think the industry will be a shell of its former self, wouldn't touch these stocks with a 10 foot pole.

If you can't tell, I'm just not much of a fan.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by nolesrule »

A cruise ship is just a floating resort.

I've been on cruises with viral outbreaks. Just wash your hands and be mindful of what you touch.

I've also gotten food poisoning from bad tuna at the Luxor in Vegas.

You can get sick anywhere there are other people.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by rich126 »

There will be a number of industries with their hands out, expecting government bailouts, airlines and oil are already lobbying for help.
For the foreseeable future (and I hope it is short), large gatherings are going to be frowned upon, if not prohibited. You know things are getting panicky when sports start getting affected (no fans at NCAA tournament games).

I don't know whether things will go crashing down further but the odds of things going up right now are pretty slim.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

rich126 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:26 pm There will be a number of industries with their hands out, expecting government bailouts, airlines and oil are already lobbying for help.
For the foreseeable future (and I hope it is short), large gatherings are going to be frowned upon, if not prohibited. You know things are getting panicky when sports start getting affected (no fans at NCAA tournament games).

I don't know whether things will go crashing down further but the odds of things going up right now are pretty slim.
^^^ This. I've read there has already been some discussion within the current administration about bailouts. Personally, I don't see anything 'strategic' to the US that makes saving any particular cruise line (or, frankly, the cruise industry) from bankruptcy needed. just my 0.02
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Will do good »

nolesrule wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:21 pm A cruise ship is just a floating resort.

I've been on cruises with viral outbreaks. Just wash your hands and be mindful of what you touch.

I've also gotten food poisoning from bad tuna at the Luxor in Vegas.

You can get sick anywhere there are other people.
+1, most things can be safe or unsafe.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Marbella »

We are big time cruisers. We have one booked for next year when this panic is over. Having said that, the cruise industry along with the airline industry will likely have to raise their game in terms of sanitation in a big way.

I can foresee a 15 minutes post deplane ozone emitting cleaning between flights, something similar with cruise ships. Think cpap cleaner on a bigger scale.

Cruise lines are huge business, but they don’t have a large labor constituency as most employees come from poor countries with lax labor laws.

I actually think travel will become a bit cleaner when this mess is over with, but there may be some casualties along the way.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by ResearchMed »

Will do good wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:00 pm
nolesrule wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:21 pm A cruise ship is just a floating resort.

I've been on cruises with viral outbreaks. Just wash your hands and be mindful of what you touch.

I've also gotten food poisoning from bad tuna at the Luxor in Vegas.

You can get sick anywhere there are other people.
+1, most things can be safe or unsafe.
We've really enjoyed several cruises over the past few years (and I have very fond memories of my first cruises in the 1970's).
We haven't gotten the dreaded Norovirus (GI symptoms), even when it seemed to be affecting some others. The cruise lines we usually sail on tend to have buffets that are served (one says what one wants from the display, or points, but there is a glass barrier, so no touching), and there are no communal utensils.
But we've realized it could happen. The only time we had a medical problem was an emergency from something on shore.
The one time recently one of us got very ill away from home was at a major hotel in Europe, far from sea.

However, the chance of getting quarantined for several (many!?) days ON a ship, WITH sick people with an infectious disease?
THAT is truly horrifying. Yes, a floating petri dish, no question about it.

We just cancelled some cruise reservations, and will think long and hard before committing to another.
It's a shame, as we really enjoyed them... the hotel follows one around at night :happy
But being trapped like that? No, we think not!

I guess we were luckier than we realized, as our most recent cruise was last Nov/Dec, in NZ/Australia, and the ship had just arrived from Asia.
Two months later... ??

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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by ballons »

rich126 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:26 pm There will be a number of industries with their hands out, expecting government bailouts, airlines and oil are already lobbying for help.
For the foreseeable future (and I hope it is short), large gatherings are going to be frowned upon, if not prohibited. You know things are getting panicky when sports start getting affected (no fans at NCAA tournament games).

I don't know whether things will go crashing down further but the odds of things going up right now are pretty slim.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by guyinlaw »

Cruise companies are not American companies. They are offshore companies which pay zero federal tax in US. So they will likely receive no bailout.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by desafinado »

The banks were bailed out arguably because there was systemic risk involved in not bailing them out. Cruise ships are different - they're a relatively simple business and use modest amounts of leverage. There's no reason the bondholders can't run cruise companies just as well as the current equity holders.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Nicolas »

guyinlaw wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:30 pm Cruise companies are not American companies. They are offshore companies which pay zero federal tax in US. So they will likely receive no bailout.
desafinado wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:36 pm The banks were bailed out arguably because there was systemic risk involved in not bailing them out. Cruise ships are different - they're a relatively simple business and use modest amounts of leverage. There's no reason the bondholders can't run cruise companies just as well as the current equity holders.
Also nobody needs to cruise, it’s a luxury. In 2008 we needed banks.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by StevieG72 »

Meh... I hope not, as I enjoy cruises.

Certainly would not want to go anytime soon. Hopefully this too shall pass.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Tamarind »

No, but they might be pricing in the failure of any cruise line that doesn't have a robust cash cushion. The fortunes of an individual company and the fortunes of the whole industry are seldom identical.

I do think this might mark a pivot point where ever higher densities become undesirable and smaller ships get more business for a while at least.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by bgf »

in my experience, if you're "excited" to buy a stock that's fallen, it hasn't fallen enough yet.

when its fallen so much you wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole... well, therein lies the rub.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by trueblueky »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:56 pm
rich126 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:26 pm There will be a number of industries with their hands out, expecting government bailouts, airlines and oil are already lobbying for help.
For the foreseeable future (and I hope it is short), large gatherings are going to be frowned upon, if not prohibited. You know things are getting panicky when sports start getting affected (no fans at NCAA tournament games).

I don't know whether things will go crashing down further but the odds of things going up right now are pretty slim.
^^^ This. I've read there has already been some discussion within the current administration about bailouts. Personally, I don't see anything 'strategic' to the US that makes saving any particular cruise line (or, frankly, the cruise industry) from bankruptcy needed. just my 0.02
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by curmudgeon »

kosomoto wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:58 pm So is the market pricing in the end of cruise lines?

Norwegian is down 70% and Royal Caribbean down almost as much. Am I the only one thinking buying a basket of all the cruise line stocks seems like a fun idea?

I find it hard to believe the industry will go away and PE based on a normal year’s operation is just 3.5 for Norwegian currently.
There is a huge cash flow challenge for the cruise lines. I haven't dug into the details, but it seems like a lot of their cash is from deposits for future cruises (which counts as debt obligation on the books). NCL in particular had a quite high rate of "current debt" (due within a year) to "current assets". The odds of a shutdown of the Alaska cruise season this summer seem high. Ditto the Mediterranean with Italy and Spain so infected. This is not just people cutting back because of economic concerns, which might mean a 20% drop in sales, but instead possibly losing 90% of cash flow for 6 months or more.

The cruise lines do seem to have some significant unencumbered assets; NCL just raised a $675 million line of credit on a newish $1 billion ship. I just don't know enough of the overall economics to understand whether the cruise lines can mothball their ships and hunker down for a year and still have shareholder value. My gut feeling is that this is about what current cruise line stock prices reflect. I held puts on cruise line stocks over the past month, but I closed out today. I wouldn't flip around and actually buy the stocks without a much better picture of their survivability in various scenarios.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by KyleAAA »

What about buying senior debt instead? Haven't check prices, but senior debt holders tend to fair alright in bankruptcy proceedings in industries with a lot of hard aasets.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by moneywise3 »

The current crisis with cruises shall pass.
I wouldn't buy any particular sector, and stick to the IPS.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by willthrill81 »

I'll be surprised if one of the major cruise lines doesn't go bankrupt, resulting in some consolidation in the industry, which has already had more than its fair share of hard knocks during the last five years.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Corsair »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:56 pm
rich126 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:26 pm There will be a number of industries with their hands out, expecting government bailouts, airlines and oil are already lobbying for help.
For the foreseeable future (and I hope it is short), large gatherings are going to be frowned upon, if not prohibited. You know things are getting panicky when sports start getting affected (no fans at NCAA tournament games).

I don't know whether things will go crashing down further but the odds of things going up right now are pretty slim.
^^^ This. I've read there has already been some discussion within the current administration about bailouts. Personally, I don't see anything 'strategic' to the US that makes saving any particular cruise line (or, frankly, the cruise industry) from bankruptcy needed. just my 0.02
I find this to be outrageous if it does happen. Most of the cruise ships aren't even registered in the States. Carnival is a Panamanian corporation; Royal Caribbean is Liberian. Tax havens = :moneybag
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by corp_sharecropper »

Don't take this as investment advice but... I've always thought the idea (and experience, as I was one time coaxed into going on a cruise with two other couples) of cruises was, well just a disgustingly vulgar interpretation of a vacation. I mean really, I don't want to ever be on a ship containing thousands of people (I don't think there's a delicate way for me to describe the health, lack of sun complexions, and shamelessness of the demographics... Let's just say the whole seen is not easy on the eyes), going from port to port and storming the beaches of little Caribbean islands with my cruise compatriots like it's Normandy, and do all that now with the bonus of potentially being quarantined for an indeterminate amount of time on that floating hell hole with previously described crowd of people.

I just never understood the appeal but now I'm convinced the cruise industry, as it is with thousands of people per ship, is absolutely finished for as long as the collective memory of these ship quarantines remain... Which for me, is the rest of my life (currently 38), and as much as I hate one assuming/projecting their own views beyond themselves, it is just too much this time, who in their right mind will risk booking a cruise going forward knowing that at the very first faint whiff of something like this ANYWHERE in the whole world, eyes & scrutiny will immediately turn on any ship holding thousands of people in close quarters trying to berth in a port.

Again, my disclaimer, I'm no sky is falling person, but this industry in particular I find loathsome to begin with and just can't see how or why anyone else would partake going forward. Hope most can feel light-hearted and not in anyway offended.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Stormbringer »

Cruise lines seem uninvestable at the moment. How do you price a possibility of bankruptcy vs. a possibility of a government bailout?
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by NewishBog »

It's 2008 all over again. What to buy? What to buy?
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Nicolas »

corp_sharecropper wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:18 pm Don't take this as investment advice but... I've always thought the idea (and experience, as I was one time coaxed into going on a cruise with two other couples) of cruises was, well just a disgustingly vulgar interpretation of a vacation. I mean really, I don't want to ever be on a ship containing thousands of people (I don't think there's a delicate way for me to describe the health, lack of sun complexions, and shamelessness of the demographics... Let's just say the whole seen is not easy on the eyes), going from port to port and storming the beaches of little Caribbean islands with my cruise compatriots like it's Normandy, and do all that now with the bonus of potentially being quarantined for an indeterminate amount of time on that floating hell hole with previously described crowd of people.

I just never understood the appeal but now I'm convinced the cruise industry, as it is with thousands of people per ship, is absolutely finished for as long as the collective memory of these ship quarantines remain... Which for me, is the rest of my life (currently 38), and as much as I hate one assuming/projecting their own views beyond themselves, it is just too much this time, who in their right mind will risk booking a cruise going forward knowing that at the very first faint whiff of something like this ANYWHERE in the whole world, eyes & scrutiny will immediately turn on any ship holding thousands of people in close quarters trying to berth in a port.

Again, my disclaimer, I'm no sky is falling person, but this industry in particular I find loathsome to begin with and just can't see how or why anyone else would partake going forward. Hope most can feel light-hearted and not in anyway offended.
I wouldn’t want to be on one of those party boats either with thousands of people but my wife and I took a Disney Caribbean cruise a number of years ago and we had quite a nice time — except when I had to cough up the “suggested” tips at the end. I didn’t like that. It was our first and only cruise, so far. Disney does it right, at least they did back then. Maybe you should try one of the smaller lines that float less people. Of course I wouldn’t go right now.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by MortgageOnBlack »

corp_sharecropper wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:18 pm Don't take this as investment advice but... I've always thought the idea (and experience, as I was one time coaxed into going on a cruise with two other couples) of cruises was, well just a disgustingly vulgar interpretation of a vacation. I mean really, I don't want to ever be on a ship containing thousands of people (I don't think there's a delicate way for me to describe the health, lack of sun complexions, and shamelessness of the demographics... Let's just say the whole seen is not easy on the eyes), going from port to port and storming the beaches of little Caribbean islands with my cruise compatriots like it's Normandy, and do all that now with the bonus of potentially being quarantined for an indeterminate amount of time on that floating hell hole with previously described crowd of people.

I just never understood the appeal but now I'm convinced the cruise industry, as it is with thousands of people per ship, is absolutely finished for as long as the collective memory of these ship quarantines remain... Which for me, is the rest of my life (currently 38), and as much as I hate one assuming/projecting their own views beyond themselves, it is just too much this time, who in their right mind will risk booking a cruise going forward knowing that at the very first faint whiff of something like this ANYWHERE in the whole world, eyes & scrutiny will immediately turn on any ship holding thousands of people in close quarters trying to berth in a port.

Again, my disclaimer, I'm no sky is falling person, but this industry in particular I find loathsome to begin with and just can't see how or why anyone else would partake going forward. Hope most can feel light-hearted and not in anyway offended.
You're assuming the majority feel the same as you. I'm similar age (36) and have been on 4 Carnival Cruises in the past 6 years. I have had some of the best memories on these trips. My ego wasn't bothered once because I found the incredible value in them. I will be back on a ship once the dust settles. I'm sure there are others who feel the same way I do.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by saintsfan342000 »

kosomoto wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:58 pm . Am I the only one thinking buying a basket of all the cruise line stocks seems like a fun idea?
I think that etf already exists: CRUZ. Or was it SAIL? I can’t remember.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by bayview »

Once things settle down, I’d love to go on a Viking River boat cruise.

But on an ocean liner with thousands of fellow passengers plus crew? No way.

My first thought when reading about the two Princess cruise ships was, “How the heck will they ever be able to disinfect them plus reassure future travelers that they are safe?” They would have to be completely rebranded.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

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bayview wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:09 pm Once things settle down, I’d love to go on a Viking River boat cruise.

But on an ocean liner with thousands of fellow passengers plus crew? No way.

My first thought when reading about the two Princess cruise ships was, “How the heck will they ever be able to disinfect them plus reassure future travelers that they are safe?” They would have to be completely rebranded.
They can use microbial fogging to eliminate very nearly 100% of viruses. Plus, most viruses have a short lifespan when they are apart from a host organism.
COVID-19 has a generally poor survivability on surfaces and poses a low risk of spread from one person to another through contact of a shared surface, CDC officials said.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... -surfaces/

They certainly won't scrap the ships just due to a viral outbreak.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

illumination wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:06 pm I'm not the right person to ask, I've been "forced" to go on a few cruises. Of the last two times, I got violently ill on one and my kids got violently ill on another. You really don't want to be in tight quarters and someone has projectile vomiting. They really are suicidal if you have something like a pandemic going around. My opinion is they all should have been shut down until this was figured out. Even if the taxpayer reimbursed the lost money for a few weeks, it would probably be pennies on the dollar to what its going to cost the public health.

I definitely think the industry will be a shell of its former self, wouldn't touch these stocks with a 10 foot pole.

If you can't tell, I'm just not much of a fan.
Not a fan either, as you describe it sounds like a floating Petri dish. Not my idea of fun.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by Cubicle »

I doubt there will be an "end" to cruises. But I speculate there will be consolidation. Or massive unrecoverable/uncompensated losses.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by greg24 »

It won't be the end of cruise ships.

But it will certainly be the end of a couple cruise ship companies.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by 2pedals »

I have a made a $600 deposit on European river cruise trip in September. It is a dream trip for DW. I was looking forward to sharing a good time with her. Most likely, I will not finalize this dream trip for her this year.
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Re: The end of cruise ships

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2pedals wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:28 pm I have a made a $600 deposit on European river cruise trip in September. It is a dream trip for DW. I was looking forward to sharing a good time with her. Most likely, I will not finalize this dream trip for her this year.
My folks were going to go the Chelsea flower show in the U.K. and then the Passion play this spring, but those are both highly likely to be cancelled, and they're unlikely to want to travel there anyway in the current environment. They were also going to take a river cruise in China in October, and they've already cancelled that as well.

When global pandemics arrive, all bets are off.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by bayview »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:12 pm
bayview wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:09 pm Once things settle down, I’d love to go on a Viking River boat cruise.

But on an ocean liner with thousands of fellow passengers plus crew? No way.

My first thought when reading about the two Princess cruise ships was, “How the heck will they ever be able to disinfect them plus reassure future travelers that they are safe?” They would have to be completely rebranded.
They can use microbial fogging to eliminate very nearly 100% of viruses. Plus, most viruses have a short lifespan when they are apart from a host organism.
COVID-19 has a generally poor survivability on surfaces and poses a low risk of spread from one person to another through contact of a shared surface, CDC officials said.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... -surfaces/

They certainly won't scrap the ships just due to a viral outbreak.
And they will be able to sell future passengers that the ships are just fine now? The science can be strong, but public perception is a whole other critter.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by willthrill81 »

bayview wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:35 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:12 pm
bayview wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:09 pm Once things settle down, I’d love to go on a Viking River boat cruise.

But on an ocean liner with thousands of fellow passengers plus crew? No way.

My first thought when reading about the two Princess cruise ships was, “How the heck will they ever be able to disinfect them plus reassure future travelers that they are safe?” They would have to be completely rebranded.
They can use microbial fogging to eliminate very nearly 100% of viruses. Plus, most viruses have a short lifespan when they are apart from a host organism.
COVID-19 has a generally poor survivability on surfaces and poses a low risk of spread from one person to another through contact of a shared surface, CDC officials said.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local ... -surfaces/

They certainly won't scrap the ships just due to a viral outbreak.
And they will be able to sell future passengers that the ships are just fine now? The science can be strong, but public perception is a whole other critter.
Memories are surprisingly short. If passengers won't get on those ships, what about all of the hospitals that have had infected patients?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: The end of cruise ships

Post by 2pedals »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:29 pm
2pedals wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:28 pm I have a made a $600 deposit on European river cruise trip in September. It is a dream trip for DW. I was looking forward to sharing a good time with her. Most likely, I will not finalize this dream trip for her this year.
My folks were going to go the Chelsea flower show in the U.K. and then the Passion play this spring, but those are both highly likely to be cancelled, and they're unlikely to want to travel there anyway in the current environment. They were also going to take a river cruise in China in October, and they've already cancelled that as well.

When global pandemics arrive, all bets are off.
Many retired folks have a lot of money to spend but are running of time to spend it. Cruise ships is one way to spend some of that money on experiences, I don't see that changing.
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