Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

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geerhardusvos
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by geerhardusvos »

matthewmon wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:30 am This dip hit at the 12th year of our accumulation and it's the first time I had stopped contributing to our accounts and probably still won't have anything to contribute for a while because we are saving for a car/emergency fund/possible refi. Horrible timing for us. We are middle income. Maybe I should do a Roth conversion on our VWO shares and just owe a couple thousand next tax season instead of getting 1k back like this year?
I would wait to buy a car if it was me and squeeze every last dollar in the market. In the accumulation phase, I would never recommend an extended period of not putting money in the market. Unemployment, health, or other things can make an accumulator press pause, but after 12 years you don’t already have an emergency fund? What’s the pressure to refinance? I wouldn’t buy a car for more than $5 to $10k in your position
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flyingaway
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by flyingaway »

My son is 22 and started his job in less than a year.
I am going to help him buy a car this weekend. Why? Because he is taking buses to work and that becomes dangerous in these virus days. I guess that life is more important than investment.
matthewmon
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by matthewmon »

^^thanks for the reply!

Have less than 13 years left on a 15 year at 3.25 just thought with all these refi threads I might should be ready to refi if the opportunity presented itself. House is 10 years old thought would be good to have 4k in an account for emergency home repair like new hvac. My mom can help me if I ever had an emergency but don't want to rely on her. My '02 Nissan Altima has 185k miles. Wife wants to save for something I found a 3-4k '07 Toyota yaris with 90k miles for sell that seems good to me to pay cash for.

We never took a family vacation until the last 6 months and took 2 which cost us 5k+.
Caduceus
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Caduceus »

siamond wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:24 am
Check the chart below. Right now, based on the sudden drop of the past few days, feelings are strong to do *something* (Roth conversion or TLH move for retirees; buy, buy, buy for accumulators; etc). Now just imagine that the VTI price had followed the purple line on my graph, to end up with the same price last night (with a 5% gain over one year ago - without accounting for dividends, by the way). Honest question: would you perceive a glaring buy opportunity?
I agree that it's a question of framing bias. But I think stock valuations should be higher over time, so a market index that's 5% higher after one year can still be cheaper than it was a year ago, fundamentally. For example, over the last year, lots of big banks bought back a fair amount of their shares, so when their share price falls to where it was exactly one year ago, each share actually lays claim to a larger proportion of earnings. If a company buys back 20% of its shares during that time frame, you'd be presented with a potential opportunity if the market then offered it to you a year later at 5% higher only.

The history of Berkshire Hathaway, which has retained all of its earnings, is I think an excellent case in point. It could have been expensive in Feb 2015 at its price of $150, but very cheap at its March 2020 price of $190. Businesses in aggregate become more valuable with time, so buying at a higher price - as long as that price isn't above its new intrinsic value - still represents a bargain.

FWIW, I don't think the market is cheap at all, but I think some individual securities are laughably cheap because of the indiscriminate selling.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Vision »

Me, me, me. I was holding off money for this dip exactly and I'm buying the hell out of it.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by willthrill81 »

Vision wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:21 pm Me, me, me. I was holding off money for this dip exactly and I'm buying the hell out of it.
That dip just turned into an intra-day bear market.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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1789
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by 1789 »

The more it drops the more i keep buying
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Jon_PassiveInvestor »

I’m buying 5-10k each time it dips more. Opportunity of a lifetime!
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by supersecretname »

I had about 10% of my NW sitting in cash for unrelated reasons. I am buying most days, all the way down. I've deployed ~25-30% so far. I'm more of a mid-late accumulator; hope to FIRE in 3-5 years (partially depending on market performance).
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by lukestuckenhymer »

I'm not frontloading any 401k contributions. You simply don't know how far down the knife will drop. Of course, I pray every single payday the market would tank and then shoot up the next trading day after my contributions go in, but it's all wishful thinking-- same goes for you people who are timing the market all the way down.
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Toons
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Toons »

Yes
Started accumulating
1980
:mrgreen:
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quantAndHold
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by quantAndHold »

Most early accumulators that I worked with didn’t have the knowledge or experience to be thankful for this. They would have either been oblivious or freaked out. It’s the middle accumulators, the ones that understand markets better, and understand what a down market can do for them, who will be thankful. I was a middle accumulator in 2008, and the fact that I was able to keep my job and keep pouring new money into the market all the way down, then all the way back up, is what got me to early retirement.

Me, as an early non-accumulator (retired and still in my 50’s), I’m a little nonplussed. I managed to downshift my AA from 70/30 to 30/70 during the last half of Feb, while the US market was still oblivious to the consequences of what was happening in China, so I’m sitting reasonably fat and happy for now. But this looks like it might become a sequence of returns issue for a lot of early retirees.

At the moment, I’m trying to come up with a Roth conversion strategy. My IPS doesn’t cover this.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by saintsfan342000 »

quantAndHold wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:30 pmI managed to downshift my AA from 70/30 to 30/70 during the last half of Feb, while the US market was still oblivious ...

At the moment, I’m trying to come up with a Roth conversion strategy. My IPS doesn’t cover this.
Does your IPS permit market timing? The typical IPS-haver, I always imagined, would not alter their portfolios in response to global affairs. Genuinely curious, thanks for sharing.
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ScubaHogg
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by ScubaHogg »

To the extent assets are cheaper, yes I'm thankful. To the extent assets are cheaper because the economy is worse (and therefore threatening to my income), no I'm not thankful.
“Unexpected Returns dominate the Expected Returns” - Ken French
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:45 am
CnC wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am Part of my MOSTLY Boglehead philosophy was that the markets are pretty efficient well managed and are relatively smart.
The Bogle philosophy is that you cannot consistently beat the average market after fees. You can of course do it a few times, but not over fifty years, eventually you’ll get whipsawed. Therefore, it is better to accept the average outcome at a rock bottom cost.
It's funny how the wording changes over time, and what gets taken from research are words like "never" and "always." In fact, the research, back when I gathered information that led me to passive income investing in the first place, show that something like 20% beat their index each year, and even less do after fees. It's not the same 20%, though. The trick is finding the guy who beats the market consistently. I'd guess it's something less than 5%. Even then, do you think you can pick out the 1 in 20, or less, that do? Maybe, this being your presumptive hobby, you might have a better than 1 in 20 chance of timing it yourself, especially given that you are not charging yourself any fees.... just food for thought.

No, I do not believe the above is a good idea for the average investor, or even the average BogleHead. I also recognize that having beaten the market in the preceding 10-years, as I have, hardly means much when compared to doing it historically.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by JonnyB »

Jon_PassiveInvestor wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:40 pm I’m buying 5-10k each time it dips more. Opportunity of a lifetime!
Seems like a pretty short life. Prices were this low last June. Was that also an opportunity of a lifetime?
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by willthrill81 »

JonnyB wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:20 pm
Jon_PassiveInvestor wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:40 pm I’m buying 5-10k each time it dips more. Opportunity of a lifetime!
Seems like a pretty short life. Prices were this low last June. Was that also an opportunity of a lifetime?
Given that corporate earnings are surely headed downward right now vs. upward back then, I'd say that was seemingly a better opportunity than now.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Jon_PassiveInvestor »

JonnyB wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:20 pm
Jon_PassiveInvestor wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:40 pm I’m buying 5-10k each time it dips more. Opportunity of a lifetime!
Seems like a pretty short life. Prices were this low last June. Was that also an opportunity of a lifetime?
Trick is I didn’t have my million from the sale of a business in June! Been waiting for this correction. Patience paid off! Buying these dips then staying the course.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Lee_WSP »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:19 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:45 am
CnC wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am Part of my MOSTLY Boglehead philosophy was that the markets are pretty efficient well managed and are relatively smart.
The Bogle philosophy is that you cannot consistently beat the average market after fees. You can of course do it a few times, but not over fifty years, eventually you’ll get whipsawed. Therefore, it is better to accept the average outcome at a rock bottom cost.
It's funny how the wording changes over time, and what gets taken from research are words like "never" and "always." In fact, the research, back when I gathered information that led me to passive income investing in the first place, show that something like 20% beat their index each year, and even less do after fees. It's not the same 20%, though. The trick is finding the guy who beats the market consistently. I'd guess it's something less than 5%. Even then, do you think you can pick out the 1 in 20, or less, that do? Maybe, this being your presumptive hobby, you might have a better than 1 in 20 chance of timing it yourself, especially given that you are not charging yourself any fees.... just food for thought.

No, I do not believe the above is a good idea for the average investor, or even the average BogleHead. I also recognize that having beaten the market in the preceding 10-years, as I have, hardly means much when compared to doing it historically.
Now that trading fees have been removed, the odds of beating the index after fees have increased significantly.

I mean, Bogle was trying to sell his index funds and he realized that fees were the anchor dragging down returns for the average investor. The key part about the active investor quote is "consistently".

That said, it's a ton of risk, time, effort & anguish to try and eek out an extra point of CAGR.
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1789
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by 1789 »

Lee_WSP wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:32 pm
ValuationsMatter wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:19 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:45 am
CnC wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am Part of my MOSTLY Boglehead philosophy was that the markets are pretty efficient well managed and are relatively smart.
The Bogle philosophy is that you cannot consistently beat the average market after fees. You can of course do it a few times, but not over fifty years, eventually you’ll get whipsawed. Therefore, it is better to accept the average outcome at a rock bottom cost.
It's funny how the wording changes over time, and what gets taken from research are words like "never" and "always." In fact, the research, back when I gathered information that led me to passive income investing in the first place, show that something like 20% beat their index each year, and even less do after fees. It's not the same 20%, though. The trick is finding the guy who beats the market consistently. I'd guess it's something less than 5%. Even then, do you think you can pick out the 1 in 20, or less, that do? Maybe, this being your presumptive hobby, you might have a better than 1 in 20 chance of timing it yourself, especially given that you are not charging yourself any fees.... just food for thought.

No, I do not believe the above is a good idea for the average investor, or even the average BogleHead. I also recognize that having beaten the market in the preceding 10-years, as I have, hardly means much when compared to doing it historically.
Now that trading fees have been removed, the odds of beating the index after fees have increased significantly.

I mean, Bogle was trying to sell his index funds and he realized that fees were the anchor dragging down returns for the average investor. The key part about the active investor quote is "consistently".

That said, it's a ton of risk, time, effort & anguish to try and eek out an extra point of CAGR.
I agree. Spending time and energy for extra point definitely useless, imo. Also remember most of people under perform the markets because people chase "PAST" performance. Actually, I would think average investors under perform average active funds/managers by a lot because of moving in and out and tinkering with their portfolio. I don't have a data on hand to show this now.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Lee_WSP »

1789 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:43 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:32 pm
ValuationsMatter wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:19 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:45 am
CnC wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am Part of my MOSTLY Boglehead philosophy was that the markets are pretty efficient well managed and are relatively smart.
The Bogle philosophy is that you cannot consistently beat the average market after fees. You can of course do it a few times, but not over fifty years, eventually you’ll get whipsawed. Therefore, it is better to accept the average outcome at a rock bottom cost.
It's funny how the wording changes over time, and what gets taken from research are words like "never" and "always." In fact, the research, back when I gathered information that led me to passive income investing in the first place, show that something like 20% beat their index each year, and even less do after fees. It's not the same 20%, though. The trick is finding the guy who beats the market consistently. I'd guess it's something less than 5%. Even then, do you think you can pick out the 1 in 20, or less, that do? Maybe, this being your presumptive hobby, you might have a better than 1 in 20 chance of timing it yourself, especially given that you are not charging yourself any fees.... just food for thought.

No, I do not believe the above is a good idea for the average investor, or even the average BogleHead. I also recognize that having beaten the market in the preceding 10-years, as I have, hardly means much when compared to doing it historically.
Now that trading fees have been removed, the odds of beating the index after fees have increased significantly.

I mean, Bogle was trying to sell his index funds and he realized that fees were the anchor dragging down returns for the average investor. The key part about the active investor quote is "consistently".

That said, it's a ton of risk, time, effort & anguish to try and eek out an extra point of CAGR.
I agree. Spending time and energy for extra point definitely useless, imo. Also remember most of people under perform the markets because people chase "PAST" performance. Actually, I would think average investors under perform average active funds/managers by a lot because of moving in and out and tinkering with their portfolio. I don't have a data on hand to show this now.
You can be easily whipsawed if you don't move fast enough. Miss one of those super days, but catch most of the bad ones, & your returns are not so good.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Sheepdog »

Are any late retirees thankful for the current correction?
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by settlement12 »

I don't get how ISHARES MSCI WORLD is up today when like the whole market is down.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Kevin M »

settlement12 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:56 pm I don't get how ISHARES MSCI WORLD is up today when like the whole market is down.
Maybe you're looking at yesterday's change?

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settlement12
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by settlement12 »

Kevin M wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:50 pm
settlement12 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:56 pm I don't get how ISHARES MSCI WORLD is up today when like the whole market is down.
Maybe you're looking at yesterday's change?

Kevin
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWDA.AS/

According to this, it opened today at 47.81 and closed at 47.26. That's about a 1% drop which seems surprising when the S&P went down about 5%.

I don't understand also why it's green, suggesting a gain.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by abuss368 »

Buy hold and rebalance.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Aku09 »

I’m 35 and have only been a high income earner for a little less than 4 years and only recently started maxing my 401k. My employee gives 8% of my salary to my 401k so roughly 3k a month gets deposited total.

Still paying off my large amount of student loans from grad school (down to 71k from 150k) at a great variable interest rate of 1.62% currently. Throwing $3500 a month at my student loans, but almost want to do a Backdoor Roth for my wife and I to take advantage of the drop. Financially I’m sure it makes sense to do the Backdoor Roth, but psychologically my student loans have been bugging me for quite some time. Will have my student loans paid off by the end of next year regardless.

I’m pretty happy about the drop. I even moved all new contributions to 100% equities and have started moving some out of bonds to equities to buy more. Portfolio is small and my risk tolerance is high at this point in my career.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by MTF »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:28 pm My sincere condolences to any of the recently retired or soon to be retired. As someone who will be working for another 20 years this has the potential to be the best investing opportunity of my working lifetime. I wouldn’t use the term thankful though. I wish ill health on no one.
Nicely put. Every accumulator should be taking advantage, if they can, but the posts from some forum members exhibiting glee at the “blood in the streets” and chanting “burn baby burn” are crass and insensitive. For every buyer there is a seller, many of whom are selling in panic and taking losses.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Keenobserver »

I'm cash heavy and in my 30s so looking to buy.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by lmldm »

I would consider myself a new accumulator (at age 43), even though I have held money in a tax deferred account for many years. We opened a brokerage account almost two years ago. I am definitely not thankful for the current correction, although in true form, we know there would be one at some point. I think most of us didn't see it happening as drastic and fast as this.

Also, the market was so inflated, I think it's a perfect buying opportunity (if you have the money). I sold part of my REIT etf in my ROTH IRA, and put the money in the settlement fund. Now I am purchasing $500 worth of VYM on the daily (at a limit). I feel like even if it continues to go down, it has to be a better return than the MM fund, and will pay the dividends too.

I think all the unknowns are scary. One thing is for sure, it could get worse, but at some point it has to get better. My portfolio is about 95/5. I can't even think about bonds since they aren't doing well either. Hopefully the market will rebound, but we definitely won't see the bull numbers that we saw right before March started.

Meanwhile...anyone know why VTSAX and VTMX are never updated til the end of the day?
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by tim1999 »

There is a somewhat ignorant guy in this 20s in my office who keeps bantering about how he is happy the market is cratering so he can pay lower prices and time the bottom. He often does this while unknowingly within earshot of colleagues twice his age nearing retirement who have been moaning about the market for the past week. Although I'm not his supervisor, but he is lower in title than I am, I'm seriously considering taking him aside and telling him to be considerate to his coworkers and STFU if I hear him doing it again. It's seriously inconsiderate of him.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Lee_WSP »

This is horrible. At these rates of loss, this looks more and more like 1987.

Except for the fact that it led up to the exuberance of the 2000's, I cannot see how 1987 was a great time to be an accumulator other than you weren't a retiree.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Vision »

This is great. I'm DCA in buying the dip this week, next week, week after that.

Amazing stuff, glad dips like these happen and you can buy stocks cheap.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Vision »

tim1999 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:45 am There is a somewhat ignorant guy in this 20s in my office who keeps bantering about how he is happy the market is cratering so he can pay lower prices and time the bottom. He often does this while unknowingly within earshot of colleagues twice his age nearing retirement who have been moaning about the market for the past week. Although I'm not his supervisor, but he is lower in title than I am, I'm seriously considering taking him aside and telling him to be considerate to his coworkers and STFU if I hear him doing it again. It's seriously inconsiderate of him.
I'm that guy.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by Forester »

Only 30% stocks now because all my trend signals have gone negative, well probably more like 25% stocks since a lot of that is SCV. I hope the market drops another 60% soon because I've only got another couple of hard working years in me (still young though) and I want to ease off a bit.

A fun thing to keep an eye on - used Rolex prices, and the price gouge premium of popular models over retail. That will be a good sentiment indicator.
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Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Post by JD2775 »

tim1999 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:45 am There is a somewhat ignorant guy in this 20s in my office who keeps bantering about how he is happy the market is cratering so he can pay lower prices and time the bottom. He often does this while unknowingly within earshot of colleagues twice his age nearing retirement who have been moaning about the market for the past week. Although I'm not his supervisor, but he is lower in title than I am, I'm seriously considering taking him aside and telling him to be considerate to his coworkers and STFU if I hear him doing it again. It's seriously inconsiderate of him.
People are clueless. I don't mind this drop at all but I am not going around telling everyone in an office setting with a wide age range how great it is.
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