Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

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StormShadow
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Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by StormShadow »

... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
rbaldini
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by rbaldini »

I get the dude is rich, but I don't leave money out of the market for extended periods of time, waiting for a downturn to buy on. I suppose I could get greedy and up my asset allocation of stocks up to 100% (already at 90%)... but I don't know that I buy the premise in the first place. So I'll keep doing what I'm doing.
DesertDiva
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by DesertDiva »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Maybe the markets will go lower. Maybe we've already hit the bottom. Either way, sticking to an IPS eliminates market timing and the regret that often follows.
7eight9
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by 7eight9 »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
I don't think we have begun to see fear. When there is a Level 1 halt then we start to see fear. Level 3? Pure panic.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
Elysium
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Elysium »

Many are just following the plan, including me, nothing to do as of yet, if 5% re-balancing bands are breached will do something, and 10% to 12% corrections will not do it. Last quarter of 2018, I was buying, it helped in 2019. We haven't even reached that yet, 18% drop IIRC that time. I was also buying summer of 2008, and 1st quarter of 2009. That's the benefit of having a plan, no need to second guess based on daily news.
Last edited by Elysium on Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Archimedes
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Archimedes »

None of our major cities are yet on lockdown. I don't think the fear will peak until we are in a state of lockdown.
squirm
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by squirm »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Down 12% and people are terrified?? Really?
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goodenyou
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by goodenyou »

Do you think you would have a different investment strategy with say 1,000,000 x expenses in stocks and 100,000 x expenses in cash? Multi billionaires’ investment strategies may be different than yours.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by JoeRetire »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
I'm staying the course.

Sayings are fun.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.
dh
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by dh »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Double checked my IPS ... Doing something because I am "terrified" (not that I am) is not part of my plan. Staying the course. :sharebeer
Call_Me_Op
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Call_Me_Op »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.
What is everybody waiting for?
There are always some people that are fearful, and always some that are being greedy.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
GoldenFinch
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by GoldenFinch »

I’m waiting to rebalance if necessary, but so far it isn’t necessary.
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pennsylvania211
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by pennsylvania211 »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
I’m buying :moneybag
"In the long run, investing is not about markets at all. Investing is about enjoying the returns earned by businesses." - Jack Bogle
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Atomic
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Atomic »

pennsylvania211 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:53 pm
StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
I’m buying :moneybag
But are you panic buying yet? That was one of my favorite phrases from '08 on this board.
squirm
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by squirm »

Fear is the capitulation phase of bear markets whether it's bond, real estate or equity markets. That's what Warren was referring to. It's not exactly easy to spot or time those. The last bear market in equities had what I think was two sessions of capitulation unil the final total washout took place.

This market gyration is still just a walk in the park. 3-4% moves aren't anything big, it just seems big cause of the points.
Last edited by squirm on Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Steadfast
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Steadfast »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm People are terrified!
Friend, if you think that this market looks terrifying then you had best find a different hobby. A student of stock market history should find this market to be child's play.
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are.
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gr7070
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by gr7070 »

rbaldini wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:37 pm I don't leave money out of the market for extended periods of time, waiting for a downturn to buy on.
Ditto. I do what many call dollar cost averaging. However, in reality that is lump sum investing. I put in as much as I can into the market every month - it just happens to be the same amount every month (more or less).

Wish I had tons of cash lying around, but that's kind of like hoping I get a huge tax refund - it just means I made the wrong decision, not that I am more wealthy.
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee »

I have a plan. I wrote my plan based on my evaluation of my circumstances. I know precisely why each aspect of the plan is what it is.

I turn the crank.

PJW
ljb1234
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by ljb1234 »

I am guessing the OP was not invested in 2008... That was fear. Go back on this site and read some of the comments from then.
At 10%-12% decrease is well within a "normal" range. This is good reality check to all the people that feel their risk tolerance is high. Maybe it is not, though.
The volatility is certainly high, but the SP is still positive for the week (so far).
H-Town
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by H-Town »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
This is not fear.

You don't know fear... yet.

Individual investors don't have a boatload of cash sitting around waiting for dirt cheap investment to buy. See the difference?
NotTooDeepLearning
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by NotTooDeepLearning »

Stocks are up this week, and only just in correction territory. I don't think the fear has even started yet.
Scooter57
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Scooter57 »

For those of us whose investment policy urges us to buy when stocks are at reasonable valuations, the current price levels are still way over what would incline us to increase our holdings.

The "buy the dip" squawking now strikes me as being just more greed. What Buffett is talking about is buying when everyone had stopped buying dips and is convinced we are looking at a totally stagnant or dropping market for another decade. That is really hard to do, psychologically
squirm
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by squirm »

There was a pathetic bear market back in 2016 when stocks briefly declined 20%, it wasn't much and I very much doubt that registered much on the fear table. This market has gone up so much so fast, it will take 40-50% decline to generate real fear.
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watchnerd
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by watchnerd »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Not enough fear yet for me to get greedy.

Sticking to IPS.

Things aren't cheap enough yet for me to commit to unnatural acts.

When / if we hit -30%, I'll get greedy.
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rkhusky
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by rkhusky »

People are spending their fear and panic rations on the coronavirus. They don’t have any to spare for this stock market dip.
carminered2019
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

50 yo, retired, still greedy and got a lot of dry powder to unload. Bought $225,000 when the DOW was at 25,405 next big purchase if the DOW drops 23,500 then all in when DOW hits 18,000 then just let it ride.
Last edited by carminered2019 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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whodidntante
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by whodidntante »

Scooter57 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:58 pm For those of us whose investment policy urges us to buy when stocks are at reasonable valuations, the current price levels are still way over what would incline us to increase our holdings.

The "buy the dip" squawking now strikes me as being just more greed. What Buffett is talking about is buying when everyone had stopped buying dips and is convinced we are looking at a totally stagnant or dropping market for another decade. That is really hard to do, psychologically
Greed, agreed. But remember that stonks only go up. Here, this will help you remember. :happy
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milktoast
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by milktoast »

I bought 1.25% of my portfolio last Thursday. But other than that, this market hasn't dropped enough to hit any of my triggers.

The big numbers every day look scary. But we are thrashing around rather than really moving down.

Today's SP500 close at 3024 is only 11% off the intra-day peak of 3393. Barely in correction territory. This isn't fear, it's uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like Dec 2018 when there were true bargains to be had.

If SP500 closes below 3000 and then falls another 2.5% the next day, I'll buy another 1.25% of portfolio out-of-cycle. Earliest that could happen is Monday. But it may not happen before my mid month contribution, which would move the trigger points even lower.
flyingaway
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by flyingaway »

Please tell me when others are fearful, I want to be greedy.
I think everyone here is putting their hands on the trigger and is ready to fire their dry powder, hardily fearful in my opinion. Maybe they are greedy now, so I have to be fearful.
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watchnerd
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by watchnerd »

milktoast wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:43 pm
Today's SP500 close at 3024 is only 11% off the intra-day peak of 3393. Barely in correction territory. This isn't fear, it's uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like Dec 2018 when there were true bargains to be had.
The Economist said today that COVID isn't likely to cause a global recession.

I'm kind of disappointed.
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SandysDad
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by SandysDad »

Like many. I do plan to buy more. But we are far from people capitulating. 1q earnings are not out. 2q expectations are not out? And we are at the cusp of mass testing which will inevitably show that this virus is just about everywhere.

So the panic panic etc is just getting started.

Keep your powder ready. Use it later
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pennsylvania211
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by pennsylvania211 »

Atomic wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:58 pm
pennsylvania211 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:53 pm
I’m buying :moneybag
But are you panic buying yet? That was one of my favorite phrases from '08 on this board.
What is panic buying?

My plan is to buy a fixed amount if market goes down -10%, -20% and -30%. I don't recommend it because it's not the highest returning solution, it a behavioral solution for me that prevents me from making behavioral mistakes :beer Time in the market almost always beats time to market.
"In the long run, investing is not about markets at all. Investing is about enjoying the returns earned by businesses." - Jack Bogle
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Watty
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Watty »

Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
There are still lots of "100% stocks threads".

We are not there yet.
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by JonnyDVM »

Watty wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:05 pm
Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
There are still lots of "100% stocks threads".

We are not there yet.

Agree. I see no blood flowing. Right now it’s more confusion. Posts like - why is the market going up and down 1000 points every day ? You need to watch for “Is it time for plan B????” threads. I think that’s the sign. Personally, I did a small rebalance out of bonds into stocks at the end of last week and did a little TLH. Otherwise it’s all business as usual here.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by TheLaughingCow »

goodenyou wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:46 pm Do you think you would have a different investment strategy with say 1,000,000 x expenses in stocks and 100,000 x expenses in cash? Multi billionaires’ investment strategies may be different than yours.
This quote is from when he was a college professor, before he became a billionaire. WB was not a billionaire until his 50's.
wkimdds
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by wkimdds »

I agree but I dont think anyone is fearful
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StormShadow
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by StormShadow »

ljb1234 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:23 pm I am guessing the OP was not invested in 2008... That was fear. Go back on this site and read some of the comments from then.
You’d be guessing dead wrong. Been investing in the market since 1999. I vividly remember the dot com bubble as well as the housing crisis. I recall how afraid people were then. With the housing crisis, I was one of them. But it was different because nobody saw an end in sight.

I suppose my feeling right now is that the market isn’t acting rationally. Principally because people aren’t reacting rationally. I work in healthcare. Coronavirus risk is being overblown. People hoarding toilet paper, masks and disinfectant wipes.... it’s not rational. The virus will be contained and my bet is that it’ll die off before an effective vaccine is distributed. In the meantime we have a temporary sell off. It’s a buyers market.
squirm
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by squirm »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:21 pm
ljb1234 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:23 pm I am guessing the OP was not invested in 2008... That was fear. Go back on this site and read some of the comments from then.
You’d be guessing dead wrong. Been investing in the market since 1999. I vividly remember the dot com bubble as well as the housing crisis. I recall how afraid people were then. With the housing crisis, I was one of them. But it was different because nobody saw an end in sight.

I suppose my feeling right now is that the market isn’t acting rationally. Principally because people aren’t reacting rationally. I work in healthcare. Coronavirus risk is being overblown. People hoarding toilet paper, masks and disinfectant wipes.... it’s not rational. The virus will be contained and my bet is that it’ll die off before an effective vaccine is distributed. In the meantime we have a temporary sell off. It’s a buyers market.
It doesn't matter how they react, the market doesn't care about the virus, it only cares about the ramifications of it, such as lesser spending. If people overact but spend less, that's all that matters.
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

I have no spare money to buy. So until our next contribution and bonus, we just hang out.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

squirm wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:26 pm
It doesn't matter how they react, the market doesn't care about the virus, it only cares about the ramifications of it, such as lesser spending. If people overact but spend less, that's all that matters.
+1.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
squirm
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by squirm »

Futures down again.
nbseer
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by nbseer »

The market impact of the coronavirus will be felt when companies and wall street anaylists start revealing their downgrades because of the global hunkering down. Stocks will go down, big question is how much will they then recover. Valuations were already high before the coronovirus came along. Does anyone really think the Dow will again approach 30,000???
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Barefoot »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm People are terrified!
This is nothing compared to 2008
bugleheadd
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by bugleheadd »

nbseer wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:34 pm The market impact of the coronavirus will be felt when companies and wall street anaylists start revealing their downgrades because of the global hunkering down. Stocks will go down, big question is how much will they then recover. Valuations were already high before the coronovirus came along. Does anyone really think the Dow will again approach 30,000???
then why do many on this site say that stock markets were not expensive, even in early feb? surely there must be many data that shows stocks are not expensive
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

It’s never expensive looking 10 years down the road.
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JaneyLH
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by JaneyLH »

Our AA is 50-50. Rebalancing threshold not triggered yet. Will buy more stock when that occurs.
averagedude
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by averagedude »

If I was 89 years old, with a net worth of 80+ billion dollars, I would neither be greedy or fearful.
nic3456
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by nic3456 »

I think we are only the tip of the iceberg of panic (if it sets in at all). Even with the drops we are only back to like Oct 2019 levels (which I thought the market was already too high back then). I agree with a previous poster that this panic is nothing like 2008. Right now people just seem to be incredulous that the market could actually go down more than a day or two.
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by expat »

Warren Buffet has a lot cash on hand to take advantage of these opportunities.

If the market goes below its Feb. 28th bottom, I may increase my stock allocation and buy more.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by TheTimeLord »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
I am waiting for people to be fearful. We are down what 10%-11%, that happens pretty much every year. :oops:
We are actually up over the past 4 days, we were at 2954.22 at the close last Friday and 3,023.94 at the close today.
Chill 8-)
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