March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

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March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:55 am

Hello Bogleheads!

Welcome to the March 2020 Bogleheads on Investing podcast. My guest is long-time Boglehead, Dr. Jim Dahle, also known as The White Coat Investor.

James M. Dahle, M.D., FACEP, is a full-time emergency room doctor, entrepreneur, writer, speaker, father, and is an inspiration to thousands of young doctors, dentists, lawyers, and other professionals who are seeking straight answers to personal finance questions. He started The White Coat Investor in 2011 to help those in the medical profession became the wealthy doctors that people think they are, and it has grown into the most widely-read physician-specific personal finance and investing website in the world.

Jim published The White Coat Investor, A Doctor’s Guide to Personal Finance and Investing in 2014, and recently published The White Coat Investor’s Financial Boot Camp: A 12-Step High-Yield Guide to Bring Your Finances Up to Speed. His personal finance articles have appeared in numerous online and printed publications, and he writes regular columns for Physicians Money Digest and ACEP NOW. Jim's growing enterprise also includes a conference, online courses, and free social media discussions.

This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012.

Click here for all Bogleheads on Investing podcasts.

Rick Ferri
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by geniekid » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:39 am

I enjoyed this podcast. :happy

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:24 pm

Jim is a smart and dynamic speaker.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Rowan Oak » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:53 pm

Good interview. I've been reading Jim's blog (and his posts here) for years and I've probably listened to all his podcasts, but still found out some things I didn't know about how he got started.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Call_Me_Op » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:02 am

Rick,

Excellent interview. I was quite impressed with the clear and concise answers that Jim provided to your questions. I remember when he was just getting started, and he has really exploded up the curve.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by abuss368 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:40 am

Thanks Rick!
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Stinky » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:01 pm

Absolutely outstanding podcast.

You could ask Dr Jim back to be your first “repeat” guest. You and he could easily spend another hour together.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by grog » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:04 pm

Couple things I didn't know.

1) You used to have to pay $5 to join the forum.

2) Both WCI and Rick have had (temporary) bans on the forum.

"If you haven't been banned then you're really not trying."
-Rick Ferri

Haha

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Harry Livermore » Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:19 pm

Great discussion, guys. Very enjoyable. You have a good rapport with each other!
Cheers

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by book lover » Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:32 pm

Thanks Rick for another informative podcast, well done.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Elysium » Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:35 pm

grog wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:04 pm
Couple things I didn't know.

1) You used to have to pay $5 to join the forum.

2) Both WCI and Rick have had (temporary) bans on the forum.

"If you haven't been banned then you're really not trying."
-Rick Ferri

Haha
The $5 was for joining the Morningstar forums, and that came as a deterrent against some disruptive posters creating multiple usernames to post on same thread. It was totally crazy at one point, the same poster would create a thread then their alter ego will come and agree or disagree with the points original poster made depending on what scheme they were pushing. I never had to pay $5 on Morningstar because they grandfathered in those who already had an account.

Never knew about the banning part :D

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by cookymonster » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:02 pm

I actually remember when Jim first started doing presentations on the web, and he was getting razzed for being a pretty dry and boring speaker. Now he is pretty entertaining. I will say he is still a lot more entertaining as a guest than he is when he is interviewing (often sounds like he is reading a prepped list of questions), but he has come a long way.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by gardener7 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:48 pm

Totally enjoyed the conversation.
Thanks!

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by dianna » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:58 pm

This was another really enjoyable podcast from Rick and BH on Investing. I appreciated how openly Dr. Jim Dahle shared his portfolio asset allocation, the reasons for real estate investment, and his approach to coaching high income earners on disability and umbrella insurance policies. Hats off to Rick and Jim!

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by grog » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:01 pm

What's the difference between the real estate investments Jim recommends on the podcast and the ones he says are a scam?

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/priva ... ded-reits/

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:24 pm

Bogleheads:

I first met doctor Jim Dahle at an early Boglehead Conference. Jim carried their baby child while in the Conference. I admired him then, and I admire him now even more.

I have given his book, The White Coat Investor, to many of my doctors and their employees. All are grateful (and I get good service).

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by black » Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:06 am

I really enjoyed your interview with Dr. Dahle. Lots of valuable information. Thank you for the podcast Rick.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by packer16 » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:13 am

Great interview & Jim's insight about real estate. It would be interesting to see what other types of real estate investments are available via the public markets that can provide smaller investors to get the type exposure Jim has gotten in his private real estate investors. Some areas that now have public traded option include: fix & flip loans (Broadmark & Arbor Realty), infrastructure investments (Brookfield Investment Partners), NNN real estate (STOR, NNN, O & others). These options also have lower costs than many of the private investments also.

Arbor is also building a single family rental origination platform and a bridge loan business. It will be interesting to see how this business competes with existing fix & flip players in the market.

Packer
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by JPH » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:08 pm

I enjoyed this one too. I noticed that the sound quality seemed a bit better than some of the previous. Good work.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by slowmoney » Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:49 pm

Hi Rick,

Dr. Dahle stated on the podcast that the value premium could be just a “Product of data mining” and/or “Isn’t real” maybe. You followed up with value investing is a “Life long investment strategy…Like a marriage”

So, nearly everyone agrees that your exposure to stocks should decline as you age. If you have 30% value stocks in your IPS which underperform early in your investment horizon, then you cut back to say 10% as you age, then just when value stocks outperform, you lost your exposure to value stocks. It seems that you will be unable to capture the risks of a value strategy.

It seems that a slice and dice strategy is highly dependent upon early outperformance, simply because you will not be able to maintain that exposure going forward.

Thus, I guess, I disagree with you that an investor will be able to stay “married” to value stocks going forward due to the relentless march of time in one’s investment horizon.

On a side note, after over 10 years of investing, I realize that I should have just listened to the experience and wisdom of Taylor and just started with the Three Fund Portfolio.

Interested in your thoughts…
Information is more valuable sold than used. - Fischer Black (1938-1995)

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by goodenyou » Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:04 pm

Rick:
I don't know when you recorded this interview, but it would have been interesting to get Jim's take on the effects on the financial markets from Coronavirus since Jim is an Emergency Room Physician. He is, therefore, going to be at ground zero during this crisis, and is no doubt being briefed of the latest projections of the potential healthcare crisis ahead by Government agencies. I wonder if he agrees of the projections that 100% of the hospital beds will be occupied by early May, and if he is changing anything in his investing strategy.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by kupuna » Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:08 pm

Rick and Jim,

Good job on the interview. I is filled with wisdom. Keep up the good work.

Mel(TOM) Turner
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:14 pm

slowmoney wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:49 pm
So, nearly everyone agrees that your exposure to stocks should decline as you age.
I don’t agree that everyone agrees. At best it’s a broad generalization that applies to the average investor. But there is no such thing as an average investor. Everyone is unique and every strategy should be unique.
Thus, I guess, I disagree with you that an investor will be able to stay “married” to value stocks going forward due to the relentless march of time in one’s investment horizon.
That’s not a strategy I recommend at all. I do not advocate eliminating your value tilt over time. You did not get that from me.
On a side note, after over 10 years of investing, I realize that I should have just listened to the experience and wisdom of Taylor and just started with the Three Fund Portfolio.
It sounds like you do not have the discipline to stay the course with the value-tilted strategy you chose ten years ago. So you are correct in that you shouldn’t have done it.

Rick
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:28 pm

JPH wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:08 pm
I enjoyed this one too. I noticed that the sound quality seemed a bit better than some of the previous. Good work.
I’m getting a little better with the audio editing software, but it is a lot of trial and error. It’s not as though there is a professional crew doing this. It’s me, myself, and I.

Thanks!
Rick
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by 1789 » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:45 pm

Thanks Rick. I enjoyed the interview and found Jim’s approach to real estate interesting.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by whodidntante » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:06 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:28 pm
JPH wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:08 pm
I enjoyed this one too. I noticed that the sound quality seemed a bit better than some of the previous. Good work.
I’m getting a little better with the audio editing software, but it is a lot of trial and error. It’s not as though there is a professional crew doing this. It’s me, myself, and I.

Thanks!
Rick
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by sergeant » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:47 pm

I enjoyed this one too. Jim was an excellent guest. I liked the part where he went over his portfolio. His reasons for investing in real estate got my attention.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by vasu100 » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:58 pm

The advice on Real Estate was very interesting. The two extremes (own property OR invest in reit) are easy to understand. But the in-between strategy of syndicated investing seemed very complex. And I did not understand how much value/advantage it has over the simpler strategies. Not for me I guess, I prefer the simple stuff...

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by White Coat Investor » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:57 am

vasu100 wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:58 pm
The advice on Real Estate was very interesting. The two extremes (own property OR invest in reit) are easy to understand. But the in-between strategy of syndicated investing seemed very complex. And I did not understand how much value/advantage it has over the simpler strategies. Not for me I guess, I prefer the simple stuff...
Like all real estate investing, it's completely optional. So if you don't like it, leave it. Certainly you can be successful with just stocks and bonds.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by White Coat Investor » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:58 am

slowmoney wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:49 pm
Hi Rick,

Dr. Dahle stated on the podcast that the value premium could be just a “Product of data mining” and/or “Isn’t real” maybe. You followed up with value investing is a “Life long investment strategy…Like a marriage”

So, nearly everyone agrees that your exposure to stocks should decline as you age. If you have 30% value stocks in your IPS which underperform early in your investment horizon, then you cut back to say 10% as you age, then just when value stocks outperform, you lost your exposure to value stocks. It seems that you will be unable to capture the risks of a value strategy.

It seems that a slice and dice strategy is highly dependent upon early outperformance, simply because you will not be able to maintain that exposure going forward.

Thus, I guess, I disagree with you that an investor will be able to stay “married” to value stocks going forward due to the relentless march of time in one’s investment horizon.

On a side note, after over 10 years of investing, I realize that I should have just listened to the experience and wisdom of Taylor and just started with the Three Fund Portfolio.

Interested in your thoughts…
I also disagree with the idea that you would reduce a tilt as you age. Heck, I disagree that you must reduce your stock:bond ratio as you age. Several notable authorities suggest you reduce it a bit for 5 years before and after retirement date and then actually start increasing your ratio once the sequence of returns risk is less.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by White Coat Investor » Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am

goodenyou wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:04 pm
Rick:
I don't know when you recorded this interview, but it would have been interesting to get Jim's take on the effects on the financial markets from Coronavirus since Jim is an Emergency Room Physician. He is, therefore, going to be at ground zero during this crisis, and is no doubt being briefed of the latest projections of the potential healthcare crisis ahead by Government agencies. I wonder if he agrees of the projections that 100% of the hospital beds will be occupied by early May, and if he is changing anything in his investing strategy.
Many of us are going to get it within the next couple of years. I'd guess 1/3. Some of us will die from it, probably around 1%, but heavily skewed toward the elderly and sick. There's probably not a whole lot we can do about it. A vaccine is probably 1-2 years away. I think it'll hit pretty hard in a month or two more, but if we're lucky, it'll be seasonable like colds and flu and will give us the summer off a bit before hitting hard again this Fall. I'd certainly be concerned about it if you are 80+. Probably avoid travel and crowds as the number of cases in your state start ramping up until this blows through.

Hospital beds are almost always full and most people who get this will never be admitted anyway because they won't be sick enough. Actually, beds aren't full--the nurses are just working at capacity. Our nation is short nurses, not the beds themselves. Those shortages could dramatically worsen as health care workers refuse to go in and/or are quarantined from the first wave coming through. Wash your hands, cover your cough, hope for the best, and trust in your immune system. It's been through this before and knows what to do.

Stay away from hospitals if you can, not only for a flu-like illness but for anything. I'd guess 3/4 of health care workers will get it this year.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by goodenyou » Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:46 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am
goodenyou wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:04 pm
Rick:
I don't know when you recorded this interview, but it would have been interesting to get Jim's take on the effects on the financial markets from Coronavirus since Jim is an Emergency Room Physician. He is, therefore, going to be at ground zero during this crisis, and is no doubt being briefed of the latest projections of the potential healthcare crisis ahead by Government agencies. I wonder if he agrees of the projections that 100% of the hospital beds will be occupied by early May, and if he is changing anything in his investing strategy.
Many of us are going to get it within the next couple of years. I'd guess 1/3. Some of us will die from it, probably around 1%, but heavily skewed toward the elderly and sick. There's probably not a whole lot we can do about it. A vaccine is probably 1-2 years away. I think it'll hit pretty hard in a month or two more, but if we're lucky, it'll be seasonable like colds and flu and will give us the summer off a bit before hitting hard again this Fall. I'd certainly be concerned about it if you are 80+. Probably avoid travel and crowds as the number of cases in your state start ramping up until this blows through.

Hospital beds are almost always full and most people who get this will never be admitted anyway because they won't be sick enough. Actually, beds aren't full--the nurses are just working at capacity. Our nation is short nurses, not the beds themselves. Those shortages could dramatically worsen as health care workers refuse to go in and/or are quarantined from the first wave coming through. Wash your hands, cover your cough, hope for the best, and trust in your immune system. It's been through this before and knows what to do.

Stay away from hospitals if you can, not only for a flu-like illness but for anything. I'd guess 3/4 of health care workers will get it this year.
Thanks Jim. As an over 50, less than 60 year old physician seeing many patients per day, I hope I fall in the no mortality minimum morbidity category. I haven’t changed my investment strategy because of Covid-19, but some of my colleagues have. This is yet another reminder of having an AA that allows you to weather financial shocks. Congratulations on your successful additional career and helping painfully unprepared physicians navigate the financial world. Capable people making bad or uniformed decisions. Debt-laden young physicians in the new world order of medicine will need financial literacy more than ever.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by slowmoney » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:02 pm

Dr. Dahle,

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

As a unique investor, I do think that it is prudent to reduce your risk level as you near retirement and in retirement. From the Bogleheads wiki:
John Bogle advises that "as we age, we usually have (1) more wealth to protect, (2) less time to recoup severe losses, (3) greater need for income, and (4) perhaps an increased nervousness as markets jump around. All four of these factors suggest more bonds as we age."
From Vanguard Target Retirement Fund:
Vanguard Target Retirement Funds offer a diversified portfolio within a single fund that adjusts its underlying asset mix over time. The funds provide broad diversification while incrementally decreasing exposure to stocks and increasing exposure to bonds as each fund’s target retirement date approaches. The funds continue to adjust for approximately seven years after that date until their allocations match that of the Target Retirement Income Fund. Investors in the funds should be able to tolerate the risks that come from the volatility of the stock and bond markets.
I guess my point is, if you plan to reduce your risk in your portfolio as you near retirement, either you must reduce your value tilt or by default increase your value tilt (as part of stock allocation) in retirement.
Information is more valuable sold than used. - Fischer Black (1938-1995)

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by WoodSpinner » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:13 pm

Rick,

Enjoyed the Podcast, especially the discussion on Real Estate since it’s an area that I might shift money towards. I especially liked the perspectives on where to hold these types of investments— looks like it will be awhile for me since I have a negligible taxable portfolio until RMDs start at 72.

Thanks to both of you!

WoodSpinner

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by nedsaid » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:00 pm

grog wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:04 pm
Couple things I didn't know.

1) You used to have to pay $5 to join the forum.

2) Both WCI and Rick have had (temporary) bans on the forum.

"If you haven't been banned then you're really not trying."
-Rick Ferri

Haha
I have been warned but never banned. I guess I have been sort of trying.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Mel Lindauer » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:24 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:00 pm
grog wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:04 pm
Couple things I didn't know.

1) You used to have to pay $5 to join the forum.

2) Both WCI and Rick have had (temporary) bans on the forum.

"If you haven't been banned then you're really not trying."
-Rick Ferri

Haha
I have been warned but never banned. I guess I have been sort of trying.
Just to clear things up, there never was a $5 charge to join THIS forum.
That reference is to the old Morningstar Vanguard Diehards forum.
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by nedsaid » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:41 pm

Thanks Rick for hosting this podcast. The discussions regarding real estate investment and assets under management fees were most interesting.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by White Coat Investor » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:01 am

packer16 wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:13 am
Great interview & Jim's insight about real estate. It would be interesting to see what other types of real estate investments are available via the public markets that can provide smaller investors to get the type exposure Jim has gotten in his private real estate investors. Some areas that now have public traded option include: fix & flip loans (Broadmark & Arbor Realty), infrastructure investments (Brookfield Investment Partners), NNN real estate (STOR, NNN, O & others). These options also have lower costs than many of the private investments also.

Arbor is also building a single family rental origination platform and a bridge loan business. It will be interesting to see how this business competes with existing fix & flip players in the market.

Packer
That's a great insight. Why give up liquidity and transparency if you can get it in the public markets? For example, ETF REM includes companies similar to Broadmark. I've spent a lot of time thinking about this. I think it's a weak argument to say "well, it doesn't fluctuate with the market", when in reality it does, it just isn't marked to market daily. So I think the only possible argument for that is an illiquidity premium. Can't prove it exists though, but I think it should.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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White Coat Investor
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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by White Coat Investor » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:04 am

slowmoney wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:02 pm
Dr. Dahle,

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

As a unique investor, I do think that it is prudent to reduce your risk level as you near retirement and in retirement. From the Bogleheads wiki:
John Bogle advises that "as we age, we usually have (1) more wealth to protect, (2) less time to recoup severe losses, (3) greater need for income, and (4) perhaps an increased nervousness as markets jump around. All four of these factors suggest more bonds as we age."
From Vanguard Target Retirement Fund:
Vanguard Target Retirement Funds offer a diversified portfolio within a single fund that adjusts its underlying asset mix over time. The funds provide broad diversification while incrementally decreasing exposure to stocks and increasing exposure to bonds as each fund’s target retirement date approaches. The funds continue to adjust for approximately seven years after that date until their allocations match that of the Target Retirement Income Fund. Investors in the funds should be able to tolerate the risks that come from the volatility of the stock and bond markets.
I guess my point is, if you plan to reduce your risk in your portfolio as you near retirement, either you must reduce your value tilt or by default increase your value tilt (as part of stock allocation) in retirement.
I consider a value tilt the ratio of value stocks to total stocks not the ratio of value stocks to total portfolio. So there is no reason one would have to reduce that ratio while reducing the stock to bond ratio.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Dave55 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:01 pm

Rick and Jim, thanks for the informative and enjoyable interview.

Dave

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by bobcat2 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:30 pm

White Coat Investor wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am
Many of us are going to get it within the next couple of years. I'd guess 1/3. Some of us will die from it, probably around 1%, but heavily skewed toward the elderly and sick.
Do I understand you correctly on this. If 1/3 of Americans are going to get this in the next two years that is about 110 million Americans. If 1% die you are predicting about 1.1 million Americans are going to die from this virus in the next two years. Have I got this right! Or, to put it another way, in the next two years you are predicting that 20 times as many Americans will die from this virus as died during the entire Vietnam war.

BobK
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). | The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by Nate79 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:39 pm

Great podcast. Really enjoyed it.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by White Coat Investor » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am

bobcat2 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:30 pm
White Coat Investor wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am
Many of us are going to get it within the next couple of years. I'd guess 1/3. Some of us will die from it, probably around 1%, but heavily skewed toward the elderly and sick.
Do I understand you correctly on this. If 1/3 of Americans are going to get this in the next two years that is about 110 million Americans. If 1% die you are predicting about 1.1 million Americans are going to die from this virus in the next two years. Have I got this right! Or, to put it another way, in the next two years you are predicting that 20 times as many Americans will die from this virus as died during the entire Vietnam war.

BobK
I'm sorry, we plan to do all we can, but yes, that's the best guess of many smart people of what is going to happen. Hopefully it won't be as bad as I fear.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by bobcat2 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:45 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am
bobcat2 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:30 pm
White Coat Investor wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am
Many of us are going to get it within the next couple of years. I'd guess 1/3. Some of us will die from it, probably around 1%, but heavily skewed toward the elderly and sick.
Do I understand you correctly on this. If 1/3 of Americans are going to get this in the next two years that is about 110 million Americans. If 1% die you are predicting about 1.1 million Americans are going to die from this virus in the next two years. Have I got this right! Or, to put it another way, in the next two years you are predicting that 20 times as many Americans will die from this virus as died during the entire Vietnam war.

BobK
I'm sorry, we plan to do all we can, but yes, that's the best guess of many smart people of what is going to happen. Hopefully it won't be as bad as I fear.
But the 1.1 million isn't your feared really bad case, it's your realistic best estimate. If 1.1 million deaths is a best estimate, doesn't that imply that a really bad outcome would be around 2 million deaths?

BobK
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). | The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.

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Re: March "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with guest Dr. Jim Dahle

Post by iceport » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:50 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am
Wash your hands, cover your cough, hope for the best, and trust in your immune system. It's been through this before and knows what to do.
Thank you for this, Dr. Dahle!

I think of this statement nearly every day since you posted it, and it is a great source of comfort and inspiration. Inspiration because maintaining a robust immune system is something most of us have significant control over with lifestyle choices. It's time for us all to be more vigilant than ever in eating well, sleeping enough and getting regular exercise as a major part of the defense against this virus.

(Oh yeah, and great interview. Most enjoyable.)
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

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