[Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

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MindBogler
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by MindBogler »

Some of the people who continually broadcast "Stay the course" will also be the ones [who may not "Stay the course" --admin LadyGeek]. I've never claimed to be one of those adherents, but my strategy here is to do nothing. I might sell some of my EDV to capture its meteoric rise, or not.
mikeyzito22
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by mikeyzito22 »

PaulS wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:52 pm I do follow Bogle head philosophy from the heart. Actually, I read lot of books on Bogle head Philosophy before coming to this website. I did my first investment in December, 2019 and invested all the cash in Taxable account with Vanguard— VOO and VTI and VTEB and very little PFFD. Now my Portfolio for Taxable and other retirement accounts down by around 25k. I am still going to follow the Boglehead Philosophy and not selling any single stock of VTI or VOO. As if the market goes down this week will buy more VTI and VOO.
One mistake I made, that I didn’t follow Bogglehead Philosophy was that I kept very little asset allocation of bonds in my portfolio . Now I realize importance of having a good amount of bonds in the asset allocation.
At the end, still following Boglehead philosophy in this downturn to hold on to the equities that are in loss and looking to buy more VTI and VOO this coming week.
-Are you able to Max out Roths (including a spousal)?
-Are you able to Max out retirement accounts?
-Are you investing in "Taxable" because you are able to do the above?
-If not, why invest in taxable?
HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE »

MindBogler wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:21 pm Some of the people who continually broadcast "Stay the course" will also be the ones [who may not "Stay the course" --admin LadyGeek]. I've never claimed to be one of those adherents, but my strategy here is to do nothing. I might sell some of my EDV to capture its meteoric rise, or not.
One change I am making as a result of this week is to align my emergency fund philosophy with the rest of my investing philosophy and move my EF from equities to long term muni bonds.
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F150HD
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by F150HD »

Feels like some threads are getting consumed w/ people in sheer panic, over-analyzing every news snip popping up from second to second on NBC creating Chicken Little Syndrome- its hard to post to some w/out getting snipped at.
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Regattamom
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Regattamom »

Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Last edited by Regattamom on Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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willthrill81
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by willthrill81 »

The Boglehead philosophy isn't so much rules as it is....guidelines.

Bogle himself (1) was fine with low-cost active management, (2) timed the market at least once, (3) and once recommended a 5% allocation to gold for an endowment fund.

We seem to have many here who are more Boglehead than Bogle was.

It reminds of the Charlie Chaplin contest when Charlie Chaplin himself came in 20th place.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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hagridshut
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by hagridshut »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:06 pm The sad truth is that there is no other decent investing forum on the internet, so everyone interested in investing comes here. Many here are not followers of John Bogle's investing philosophy. They're just here because there is no other place to go.
I truly believe that people who aren't interested in "boring" index fund allocations can find plenty of high-quality discussion and advice on Reddit at Wallstreetbets:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ :beer

There is no need for them to be forum members here :mrgreen:
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willthrill81
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by willthrill81 »

hagridshut wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:29 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:06 pm The sad truth is that there is no other decent investing forum on the internet, so everyone interested in investing comes here. Many here are not followers of John Bogle's investing philosophy. They're just here because there is no other place to go.
I truly believe that people who aren't interested in "boring" index fund allocations can find plenty of high-quality discussion and advice on Reddit at Wallstreetbets:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ :beer

There is no need for them to be forum members here :mrgreen:
In other words, get in line or get lost? :confused
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Darwin
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by Darwin »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:07 pm I'm actually proud of the community. Folks seem to be coming together and supporting one another.
Yeah, me too. In 2008 I used to get on the forum to stiffen my resolve, and it always worked. There were the same threads with nervous people tempted to change their PIPs, but also the calmer voices. I listened to the latter, and still do today.
By happy coincidence I just sold my house, and now I'm able to buy the stock portion of my AA at a discount. Good times!
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jb1
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by jb1 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:21 pm
jb1 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:15 pm I’m 29, and buying more. Although this could be the start of my first down market, I'll ride it out and buy more.

I’m 100% equities. I’m sure in 30 years it’ll just be a bump in the road.
You weren't 100% equities before you bought more. Why?
? Im 100% equities in my taxable. Roth has VTTSX 2060 Retirement fund so 3% bonds there.

Im buying more pal
Triple digit golfer
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by Triple digit golfer »

jb1 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:32 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:21 pm
jb1 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:15 pm I’m 29, and buying more. Although this could be the start of my first down market, I'll ride it out and buy more.

I’m 100% equities. I’m sure in 30 years it’ll just be a bump in the road.
You weren't 100% equities before you bought more. Why?
? Im 100% equities in my taxable. Roth has VTTSX 2060 Retirement fund so 3% bonds there.

Im buying more pal
Ah. Must be with new money.
Afty
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Afty »

I'm staying the course at my 70/30 allocation. Actually trying to stay out of internet financial discussions so I don't get spooked. Intentionally only check my balances once a quarter for the same reason.
jb1
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by jb1 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:34 pm
jb1 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:32 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:21 pm
jb1 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:15 pm I’m 29, and buying more. Although this could be the start of my first down market, I'll ride it out and buy more.

I’m 100% equities. I’m sure in 30 years it’ll just be a bump in the road.
You weren't 100% equities before you bought more. Why?
? Im 100% equities in my taxable. Roth has VTTSX 2060 Retirement fund so 3% bonds there.

Im buying more pal
Ah. Must be with new money.
Yes, everything is on sale why not!
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Tdubs wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:19 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:08 pm
Tdubs wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:07 pm I am staying the course! This correction doesn't scare me; I will never deviate from the Boglehead way.

Except for that little exchange of funds I did at 3:45 pm Friday afternoon--that was just a slip. Happens to everyone. Hardly different from my IPS . . . the one I'm going to revise next week.

Other than that, I am staying the course!
Tell us more about that little transaction.
Let's not dwell on the past, shall we?
Well... your comment opens with "I am staying the course!" But then you mention that perhaps you didn't. You are definitely sending conflicting messages here.
Alex Rogan
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by Alex Rogan »

Its clear current markets are and will be testing some more then others on JB's philosophy. But a philosophy in action can be difficult in difficult times when the pressure is on. They say when someone is under pressure their true colors are seen. Yes I am also surprised and what seems a lack of Boglehead approaches recently but without pressure there are no diamonds. I see it as an opportunity to help people make better "Bogle" decisions and make diamonds. I welcome all bogle and bogleish people here. Its an opportunity for everyone to learn, sometimes from mistakes, and hopefully through all that we can make more boglehead diamonds

Here JB talking about risk. Whatever philosophy you believeThis is all about risk so I love to go back and hear his words on it. https://youtu.be/MLgn_kVKjCE?t=1282
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hagridshut
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by hagridshut »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:31 pm
hagridshut wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:29 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:06 pm The sad truth is that there is no other decent investing forum on the internet, so everyone interested in investing comes here. Many here are not followers of John Bogle's investing philosophy. They're just here because there is no other place to go.
I truly believe that people who aren't interested in "boring" index fund allocations can find plenty of high-quality discussion and advice on Reddit at Wallstreetbets:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ :beer

There is no need for them to be forum members here :mrgreen:
In other words, get in line or get lost? :confused
Not exactly, but does it make sense for someone who is really NOT interested in Boglehead investing to spend a lot of time here? That is like a Windows user constantly hanging around the Macrumors.com forum and constantly talking about Microsoft Windows and Windows computers rather than Macs.

Wallstreetbets is a much better resource for market timing, high-risk options plays, recreational drugs, and pretty much everything that Boglehead investors generally want to avoid. I am sort of serious about this :mrgreen:

I read Wallstreetbets a lot. I don't post there and don't try to bring my index funds into the discussions :beer
Last edited by hagridshut on Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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greenhill
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by greenhill »

I stayed the course. Those who didn't tend to discuss more on forum.
langlands
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by langlands »

hagridshut wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:31 pm
hagridshut wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:29 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:06 pm The sad truth is that there is no other decent investing forum on the internet, so everyone interested in investing comes here. Many here are not followers of John Bogle's investing philosophy. They're just here because there is no other place to go.
I truly believe that people who aren't interested in "boring" index fund allocations can find plenty of high-quality discussion and advice on Reddit at Wallstreetbets:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ :beer

There is no need for them to be forum members here :mrgreen:
In other words, get in line or get lost? :confused
Not exactly, but does it make sense for someone who is really NOT interested in Boglehead investing to spend a lot of time here? That is like a Windows user constantly hanging around the Macrumors.com forum and constantly talking about Microsoft Windows and Windows computers rather than Macs.

Wallstreetbets is a much better resource for market timing, high-risk options plays, recreational drugs, and pretty much everything that Boglehead investors generally want to avoid. I am sort of serious about this :mrgreen:

I read Wallstreetbets a lot. I don't post there and don't try to bring my index funds into the discussions :beer
Seems a bit of a strawman. The point (and I agree with it) is that there are very few other good places on the internet to discuss investing. Are you being serious that Wallstreetbets is a venue for "high-quality discussion and advice?" It is perhaps mildly entertaining and a decent way to gauge market sentiment among retail investors, but I get precisely zero investment advice from it.
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ResearchMed
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by ResearchMed »

Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 pm Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Wow. "... the Boglehead forum IS CORRECT"?
Everything else is... WRONG?

Not everyone drinks the same Kool Aid.
And not everyone is in the same financial/age/philosphical circumstances.

As one example, there are those who cannot strictly "follow THE Boglehead philosophy for religious reasons.
For them, some OTHER philosophy is "correct".
Ditto for other philosophies/strategies.

Does OP *never* read or try to understand anything that is at all "different"?
Never?
One might learn useful things from broadening one's horizons...

There is lots to be learned here, in many ways.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
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Regattamom
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Regattamom »

ResearchMed wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:03 pm
Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 pm Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Wow. "... the Boglehead forum IS CORRECT"?
Everything else is... WRONG?

Not everyone drinks the same Kool Aid.
And not everyone is in the same financial/age/philosphical circumstances.

As one example, there are those who cannot strictly "follow THE Boglehead philosophy for religious reasons.
For them, some OTHER philosophy is "correct".
Ditto for other philosophies/strategies.

Does OP *never* read or try to understand anything that is at all "different"?
Never?
One might learn useful things from broadening one's horizons...

There is lots to be learned here, in many ways.

RM
You got it backwards. I said the Boglehead philosophy is correct. And for me it is.
milktoast
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by milktoast »

I think the most important philosophical characteristics are: diversified portfolio, written IPS, and sticking to plan.

In the past, I had a hard time sticking to plan. So I actually added some market timing to my plan. And thus far it's been easier to stick to plan.

I was going to slam extra purchase in on Monday, read the plan and didn't. Repeat on Tuesday. Repeat on Wednesday. Hey, on Thursday the plan says buy - so I did. Saved myself some distance on that falling knife.
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ResearchMed
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by ResearchMed »

Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:06 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:03 pm
Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 pm Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Wow. "... the Boglehead forum IS CORRECT"?
Everything else is... WRONG?

Not everyone drinks the same Kool Aid.
And not everyone is in the same financial/age/philosphical circumstances.

As one example, there are those who cannot strictly "follow THE Boglehead philosophy for religious reasons.
For them, some OTHER philosophy is "correct".
Ditto for other philosophies/strategies.

Does OP *never* read or try to understand anything that is at all "different"?
Never?
One might learn useful things from broadening one's horizons...

There is lots to be learned here, in many ways.

RM
You got it backwards. I said the Boglehead philosophy is correct. And for me it is.
Backwards??

Yes, for *you* it is apparently "correct".
And this was not implied (that it was correct for *you*), when you wrote:
"Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor."
That was quite a general statement...

But it - and including *all* of its "parts" - is not necessarily "correct" for everyone, including others who read or participate here.
And there is nothing *wrong* with their participation.
As someone above mentioned, there was no manifesto that we all were required to agree with.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
sd323232
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by sd323232 »

Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:06 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:03 pm
Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 pm Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Wow. "... the Boglehead forum IS CORRECT"?
Everything else is... WRONG?

Not everyone drinks the same Kool Aid.
And not everyone is in the same financial/age/philosphical circumstances.

As one example, there are those who cannot strictly "follow THE Boglehead philosophy for religious reasons.
For them, some OTHER philosophy is "correct".
Ditto for other philosophies/strategies.

Does OP *never* read or try to understand anything that is at all "different"?
Never?
One might learn useful things from broadening one's horizons...

There is lots to be learned here, in many ways.

RM
You got it backwards. I said the Boglehead philosophy is correct. And for me it is.
OP, and be happy if it is right philosophy for you, but to go and make post about forum members who you do not agree with is beyond ridiculous. I hope this is a place where all people are welcomed, where we learn from each other and not shamed for being different.
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Regattamom
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Regattamom »

ResearchMed wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:15 pm
Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:06 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:03 pm
Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 pm Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Wow. "... the Boglehead forum IS CORRECT"?
Everything else is... WRONG?

Not everyone drinks the same Kool Aid.
And not everyone is in the same financial/age/philosphical circumstances.

As one example, there are those who cannot strictly "follow THE Boglehead philosophy for religious reasons.
For them, some OTHER philosophy is "correct".
Ditto for other philosophies/strategies.

Does OP *never* read or try to understand anything that is at all "different"?
Never?
One might learn useful things from broadening one's horizons...

There is lots to be learned here, in many ways.

RM
You got it backwards. I said the Boglehead philosophy is correct. And for me it is.
Backwards??

Yes, for *you* it is apparently "correct".
And this was not implied (that it was correct for *you*), when you wrote:
"Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor."
That was quite a general statement...

But it - and including *all* of its "parts" - is not necessarily "correct" for everyone, including others who read or participate here.
And there is nothing *wrong* with their participation.
As someone above mentioned, there was no manifesto that we all were required to agree with.

RM
Okay.
Caduceus
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by Caduceus »

JonnyDVM wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:17 pm Most posters do abide by that philosophy. In a big market slide infrequent posters come out of the woodwork and jam up the servers with talk of timing. That’s not the norm. If anything, it goes to show staying the course is hard. Everyone can talk the talk when times are good. But when times get rough, it’s apparent a lot of people are quick to hit that panic sell button. There are many posters here who do walk the walk. They can be hard to find amongst the rest in times like this.
Yes. I've been surprised at the sheer number of people with 7 or 8 total posts in their posting histories before the coronavirus who are now regularly posting. There's also been a suspicious number of completely new members who've suddenly come into huge amounts of money right before the crash - lots of people with inheritances, lots of cash, etc. at this moment who've created accounts to ask about how to lump sum their millions. It's a little bit odd.
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nedsaid
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by nedsaid »

I will be the first to say that I don't have this all figured out. It isn't fun seeing these corrections and seeing my account balances going down. My portfolio is substantial, at least to me, and it still hurts to lose thousands of dollars in a day, day after day. Just chalk it up to the markets doing what markets do, not much I can do about it, I was 63% stocks/37% bonds and cash when this hit. Probably after we get back to all time highs, I will reduce my stock allocation. Doesn't feel like it but times like this are when you make your money, pretty much a transfer of wealth from those who panic to those who stay the course. Wish I knew the right asset allocation for me, I feel like I am still fairly aggressive at age 60. These kind of market conditions are humbling, even for those of us who think we have seen it all.
A fool and his money are good for business.
beehivehave
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by beehivehave »

They are indeed staying the course - especially those with 20/80 AA.
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by DesertDiva »

Staying the course!
edge
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by edge »

I am following my IPS. No panic selling. Doing some buying to keep AA in the bands.
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by TheDDC »

Sorry. I was never surveyed, but I'm 100% VTSAX/FSKAX. TheDDC has upgraded VTSAX/FSKAX to a STRONG BUY. I'm happy that I can buy equities at a mere 12.7% discount. This week may give me an even better bargain.

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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by nisiprius »

The only transactions I've made in the last twelve months have been automatic RMDs from my retirement accounts (taxable distributions taken out of traditional IRAs, required by the IRS, to ensure that you eventually pay taxes on them).

So, yeah, I've been staying the course... by my definition. (The effect of market movements and withdrawals has not changed our asset allocation enough to require rebalancing).

This morning I reviewed our Vanguard account with my wife to keep her in the picture. Our portfolio is conservative because we are pretty risk-averse. My nerve hasn't really been tested yet. We just let the RMD withdrawals out of Vanguard and into a high-interest savings account, so they are drained out of our Vanguard account. Despite the RMDs, and despite the shockingly vertical but still small plunge of last week, we have more money in our Vanguard account than we did a year ago, so at the moment it's not too bad.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Irisheyes
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Irisheyes »

Maybe most of us have to go through one of these sharp drops to really recalibrate and know our risk tolerance.

I sold during 2008 (mea culpa).

I've been waiting /preparing for this downdraft ever since 2008, almost like a marathon runner. I'm in shape (my asset allocation fits my ability to take risk) and I'm ready for this.

So I've lost six figures but still bought slowly and steadily last week and will buy slowly and steadily next week if the downdraft continues. It feels good to be buying and not selling into this turbulence.

2008 was a good lesson for me and this drop will be a lesson for newer investors.

I think most of us need one sharp kick in the pants before we really get it. It's all theory until that point.
LawProf
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by LawProf »

Irisheyes wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:54 pm Maybe most of us have to go through one of these sharp drops to really recalibrate and know our risk tolerance.

I sold during 2008 (mea culpa).

I've been waiting /preparing for this downdraft ever since 2008, almost like a marathon runner. I'm in shape (my asset allocation fits my ability to take risk) and I'm ready for this.

So I've lost six figures but still bought slowly and steadily last week and will buy slowly and steadily next week if the downdraft continues. It feels good to be buying and not selling into this turbulence.

2008 was a good lesson for me and this drop will be a lesson for newer investors.

I think most of us need one sharp kick in the pants before we really get it. It's all theory until that point.
It's an old trope around here -- "This time is different." Which is perfectly right -- you cannot get worked up about everything that happens in the world or you'll kill your returns jumping in and out of the market. Boglehead philosophy rightly warns against the behavioral impulse of thinking every crisis is the end of the world -- hence, stay the course. But there will come a time when it will be different. We are not guaranteed the future (e.g., Japan's stock market peaked in 1989). For a site that consistently preaches we cannot predict the future and the reality of uncertainty, many take it on faith that the market will always go up in the long run. That's not true and represents a consistent underweighing of risk. There will come a day when those who follow the Boglehead philosophy and keep rebalancing into stocks on the way down will get slaughtered in the long term. Now it may not be in our lifetimes or in our grandchildren's lifetimes, but one day the stock market will be flat or even declining over a long period of time.

Is this that time? Highly doubtful. But there is enough weird things going on in the world -- talking of cancelling the Olympics, Chinese political risk, whatever's happening in Iran, Saudi Arabia banning travel to Mecca, Japan shutting down schools -- that I want to see where the dust settles before deciding that this is not that time.
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by TheDDC »

LawProf wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:51 pm Is this that time? Highly doubtful. But there is enough weird things going on in the world -- talking of cancelling the Olympics, Chinese political risk, whatever's happening in Iran, Saudi Arabia banning travel to Mecca, Japan shutting down schools -- that I want to see where the dust settles before deciding that this is not that time.
Nope. It's not that time. An actual decent financial article for those of us thinking "this time is different" ironically written about what Financial Advisors do during dark market times:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

1. They don’t constantly look at their account balances
2. They take care of themselves
3. They don’t try to catch a falling knife
4. They know it isn’t different this time

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
LawProf
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by LawProf »

TheDDC wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:57 pm
LawProf wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:51 pm Is this that time? Highly doubtful. But there is enough weird things going on in the world -- talking of cancelling the Olympics, Chinese political risk, whatever's happening in Iran, Saudi Arabia banning travel to Mecca, Japan shutting down schools -- that I want to see where the dust settles before deciding that this is not that time.
Nope. It's not that time. An actual decent financial article for those of us thinking "this time is different" ironically written about what Financial Advisors do during dark market times:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

1. They don’t constantly look at their account balances
2. They take care of themselves
3. They don’t try to catch a falling knife
4. They know it isn’t different this time

-TheDDC
There’s not a single person alive who can say today where this thing is going to go.
tdmp
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by tdmp »

I am staying the course at 55/45. I think those that don’t stay the course really overestimated their risk tolerance. I believe setting appropriate asset allocation in accordance to one’s need, ability, and willingness to take risk is the MOST important aspect of investing. Everything else is just tinkering here and there (ie. Large vs mid vs. small cap, value vs. growth, factor, tilting, bond inside vs. outside retirement , mini vs. bond index, balanced fund vs. separate funds for equity and bonds, etc..) Many folks overestimate their true risk tolerance and don’t realize this until there is a sharp downturn. I have been asked by many if I am going to get out of the market. My response is yes and no. Yes: ~ 45% is always out of market and No: ~55% is always in the market.
-events like this leads to equity investor returns to trail the S&P 500 returns at 1- , 3-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 30- years. People try to time it to get out but don’t know when to go back in and vice versa . Investors psychology: tend to stay in when times are good and get out when time isn’t so good. Totally opposite from Buffet’s “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” The Lipper fund flows illustrates this. Some folks are just “lost” in the investment woods and really don’t have a good, solid IPS.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

TheDDC wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:57 pm
LawProf wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:51 pm Is this that time? Highly doubtful. But there is enough weird things going on in the world -- talking of cancelling the Olympics, Chinese political risk, whatever's happening in Iran, Saudi Arabia banning travel to Mecca, Japan shutting down schools -- that I want to see where the dust settles before deciding that this is not that time.
Nope. It's not that time. An actual decent financial article for those of us thinking "this time is different" ironically written about what Financial Advisors do during dark market times:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

1. They don’t constantly look at their account balances
2. They take care of themselves
3. They don’t try to catch a falling knife
4. They know it isn’t different this time

-TheDDC
Catch a falling knife seems like a strange term. Seems to me, unless you're near or in retirement, the best thing to do when the market is falling hard is to progressively shift your AA toward more equity until you eventually reach your highest tolerance level. Even if you don't catch the bottom you will eventually be better off, assuming you have faith the market will recover. (Which is a core belief of the boglehead way)
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 pm Thanks to all who replied with confirmation that the Boglehead philosophy is correct, especially Taylor.

It's apparent to me now that my assumptions of the Boglehead forum were not correct.
Haven’t hit rebalancing bands yet! I checked but no go yet. I tax loss harvested one account on Friday (bird in hand). Bought on Thursday, bought on Friday (funds other than tax loss harvested one - no wash sale). Been banging the drum on those “should I get out” threads to write an IPS if they didn’t have one, set an asset allocation after determining their risk tolerance and to stay the course- only to get rebuttal questions on how I know the market will come back, that it’s different this time, etc. You can lead the horse to water, if they don’t want to drink.....
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
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Bluce
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by Bluce »

Regattamom wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:07 pm [Title was "Disappointed in forum members" --admin LadyGeek]

I expected more from the members on this forum. So many people asking about selling now and buying back in later and lots of people are agreeing it's a good idea. What happened to the Boglehead philosophy? Why be here if you don't believe in it? And I wonder if it makes new people second guess their choices or disregard the data we have available to us.

I have not been a member for very long, but I believe in the Boglehead philosophy. I am staying the course, continuing with our plan and not looking at my balances. My asset allocation will remain the same. It can be hard to stay the course, and I thought this forum would be a good place for that kind of reinforcement.

That's all.
I'm with you. I'm doing nothing but watching the action. My 30/70 PF has gone to 29/71 but that's fine.

I'm also a bit surprised by what's going on here, but whatever. 😎 It's fun to watch.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
BillyK
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by BillyK »

A common quote on this forum that has become less frequent as the markets were setting highs is one from Mike Tyson. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. Now we are seeing what happens to some investors with a plan when they figuratively get punched. It is a natural tendency for many investors to sell low on the way down only to later buy back in at higher prices.
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FIREchief
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by FIREchief »

Posters (many - not all) with <100 posts: "yikes, the sky is falling, what should I do. Should I sell it all?"
Posters with 100 - 1000 posts: "hmm, I'm getting a bit nervous"
Posters with 1000 - 2000 posts: "what, this again. Yeah I'll take a look and think about it"
Posters with 2000 - 3000 posts: "yeah, I'm not happy but I'll just stay the danged course"
Posters with >3000 posts: "what now? Something happened??"
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
guyinlaw
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by guyinlaw »

FIREchief wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:27 am Posters (many - not all) with <100 posts: "yikes, the sky is falling, what should I do. Should I sell it all?"
Posters with 100 - 1000 posts: "hmm, I'm getting a bit nervous"
Posters with 1000 - 2000 posts: "what, this again. Yeah I'll take a look and think about it"
Posters with 2000 - 3000 posts: "yeah, I'm not happy but I'll just stay the danged course"
Posters with >3000 posts: "what now? Something happened??"
:thumbsup
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
HowlerNine
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by HowlerNine »

LawProf wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:51 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:54 pm Maybe most of us have to go through one of these sharp drops to really recalibrate and know our risk tolerance.

I sold during 2008 (mea culpa).

I've been waiting /preparing for this downdraft ever since 2008, almost like a marathon runner. I'm in shape (my asset allocation fits my ability to take risk) and I'm ready for this.

So I've lost six figures but still bought slowly and steadily last week and will buy slowly and steadily next week if the downdraft continues. It feels good to be buying and not selling into this turbulence.

2008 was a good lesson for me and this drop will be a lesson for newer investors.

I think most of us need one sharp kick in the pants before we really get it. It's all theory until that point.
It's an old trope around here -- "This time is different." Which is perfectly right -- you cannot get worked up about everything that happens in the world or you'll kill your returns jumping in and out of the market. Boglehead philosophy rightly warns against the behavioral impulse of thinking every crisis is the end of the world -- hence, stay the course. But there will come a time when it will be different. We are not guaranteed the future (e.g., Japan's stock market peaked in 1989). For a site that consistently preaches we cannot predict the future and the reality of uncertainty, many take it on faith that the market will always go up in the long run. That's not true and represents a consistent underweighing of risk. There will come a day when those who follow the Boglehead philosophy and keep rebalancing into stocks on the way down will get slaughtered in the long term. Now it may not be in our lifetimes or in our grandchildren's lifetimes, but one day the stock market will be flat or even declining over a long period of time.

Is this that time? Highly doubtful. But there is enough weird things going on in the world -- talking of cancelling the Olympics, Chinese political risk, whatever's happening in Iran, Saudi Arabia banning travel to Mecca, Japan shutting down schools -- that I want to see where the dust settles before deciding that this is not that time.
This had been close to my train of thought lately. I realize it's cliche to keep thinking "this time will be different", but as there's no way to predict the future, it may be or it may not be.
I'm 36 and started investing last year with six figures. I invested in broad market ETFs after reading Boglehead books and others about long term, passive, investing. I feel very Boglehead'ish. I stayed the course throughout the drops of last week, as that's what I thought I should do. On Friday though, I sold and am back to cash. Because I only was invested for a little over a year, I didn't pay much in capital gains. The reason for doing this was because I was afraid. Afraid the risks were too high for my investment. I'm just guessing like everyone else, but I feel as though the potential for downside is way higher than upside as the effects of the Coronavirus begin all over the world. Many will say I made a poor choice and that my risk tolerance didn't match my investment percentage in equities. If I was a few years in already, I do believe my motivation to stay the course would be much stronger. I don't want to constantly fiddle with my investments as the market fluctuates. But...as a new investor, I'd rather risk rewards for the sake of safety right now. That's just my choice for the moment.

We'll all see how this plays out. For me it's hard to ignore the escalation of virus spread and its effect on day to day life around the globe.

Just wanted to share my context as I'm one of the people on this forum that has succumbed to a seemingly anti-Boglehead move.
ignition
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by ignition »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:21 pm Staying the course sounds all well and good. Until you see your net worth evaporating and retirement going out the window.

When that is the case it might be useful to remember Taylor Larimore's thread "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor where he outlined when one should get out of the equity market.

viewtopic.php?t=30085

I'm not saying we are at that point necessarily now but there is no obligation to stick around in equities when it will cause you economic harm.
Seems like a bad idea. Locking in the loss. I'd rather just stay the course.
ARoseByAnyOtherName
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by ARoseByAnyOtherName »

LawProf wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:08 am
TheDDC wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:57 pm
LawProf wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:51 pm Is this that time? Highly doubtful. But there is enough weird things going on in the world -- talking of cancelling the Olympics, Chinese political risk, whatever's happening in Iran, Saudi Arabia banning travel to Mecca, Japan shutting down schools -- that I want to see where the dust settles before deciding that this is not that time.
Nope. It's not that time. An actual decent financial article for those of us thinking "this time is different" ironically written about what Financial Advisors do during dark market times:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

1. They don’t constantly look at their account balances
2. They take care of themselves
3. They don’t try to catch a falling knife
4. They know it isn’t different this time

-TheDDC
There’s not a single person alive who can say today where this thing is going to go.
Of course, because you can’t prove a negative.

I can come up with all sorts of crazy end of the world scenarios and nobody can prove they aren’t going to happen. Like I think that aliens are going to show up and vaporize all the oceans on earth with their alien technology.

LawProf do you think that’s going to happen? No? Well prove it!

So what’s your advice? Sell everything? (I’m buying.)
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Bluce
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by Bluce »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:21 pm Staying the course sounds all well and good. Until you see your net worth evaporating and retirement going out the window.

When that is the case it might be useful to remember Taylor Larimore's thread "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor where he outlined when one should get out of the equity market.

viewtopic.php?t=30085

I'm not saying we are at that point necessarily now but there is no obligation to stick around in equities when it will cause you economic harm.
Self-employed, no pension. During the '08 crisis my PF dropped by double the value of my house -- but I did nothing, too scared (I didn't have much in equities in 2000, so that wasn't such a big deal). I was 58 in 2008, so no decades left for me to recover. I stopped opening my monthly statements for all?/most? of 2008.

I was watching the daily market gyrations and I had a 65/35 AA at the time, so I had a pretty good idea what was happening to my PF. But I kept telling myself "I still own the same assets, although the market thinks they are worth less than before. Don't sell the assets."

Point 1) I think it's prudent to start de-risking ten years away from expected retirement.

Point 2) By the end of 2010 my PF was back to where it was during the fall of 2007. So if one was oblivious to what was going on, and didn't check their PF or the stock market until the end of 2010, they would think, "Hmm, my portfolio was flat for three years. Oh well."

It's just another way of looking at it. 8-)
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
fanmail
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by fanmail »

Same reason you see a lot of 100% stock? threads when the markets have had very strong bull runs. Greed and it’s old friend, fear.
coachd50
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by coachd50 »

RobLyons wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:58 pm I agree this is a mix of
1.) most of what you're seeing is a minority of this board running on emotion
and
2.) we don't all subscribe strictly to all the BH rules

I for example contributed much less than the max on our 2019 Roth's with suspicions of a market down turn at some point, and I was right.. Why max contribute at all time market highs when we could barely afford it anyways (1 income family)

Good luck!
Umm...to take advantage of the tax free growth rate bestowed upon a small fixed potential contribution? I suppose you could make those contributions now toward 2019... but frankly this is just an example of being lucky.

It is a bit ironic, because the entire boglehead philosophy and road map created by Mr. Bogle was probably made with YOU in mind. It isn't a roadmap to get rich, or for high income investors to demonstrate investing wizardry. Sure, it works for them too - but I like to think it was primarily devised for the Median income earners to have a chance at a stress free retirement.
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F150HD
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Re: Disappointed in forum members

Post by F150HD »

Caduceus wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:19 pm Yes. I've been surprised at the sheer number of people with 7 or 8 total posts in their posting histories before the coronavirus who are now regularly posting. There's also been a suspicious number of completely new members who've suddenly come into huge amounts of money right before the crash - lots of people with inheritances, lots of cash, etc. at this moment who've created accounts to ask about how to lump sum their millions. It's a little bit odd.
I have noticed this too.
lostdog
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Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

Post by lostdog »

Been here awhile. I told my wife this morning the weak hands and the chicken littles are selling us their shares at a discount so far. She chuckled.

I've been keeping her in the loop.

Staying the course per our IPS.
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
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