Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:32 am

This topic has run its course and has been locked. General comment threads must be about actionable investing theory. Wild guesses about the bottom of the market are not actionable. After further moderator review, the topic is re-opened for discussion.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by abuss368 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:57 pm

Keenobserver wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:06 am
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:52 pm
Keenobserver wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:43 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:29 pm
Keenobserver wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:03 pm
I think coming few weeks are great buy opps. Buy in with ebery decline..cant know the bottom but know stocks cheaper today then 5 yrs from now..so keep DCA on panic days..2000 bottom.i think
2000 on the DOW or S&P or year 2000 with tech bubble popping?
2000 s& p bottom.. any lower then gona jump 1600..but i say 2000 for now
Are you shorting if you know this?
Not me.pwrsoanlly, but I know people.who are. I dont short as a rule. Im just going to DCA with declines..heavier the decline the heavier I go in..each time tell myself I am buying this for minimum 5 years from.now
Jack Bogle would saying his favorite time period is "forever".
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by keystone » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:41 pm

I'll go with the S&P down to 1850. That will likely be my next and final rebalance trigger.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by physixfan » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 pm

physixfan wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:12 am
I think this is just the beginning. Many people are still rational and want to buy the dip. I think the real market meltdown will occur after FED drops the interest rate to 0. At that time, most people will get panic and doubt whether the whole money system will totally break down. In the end the dip will be deeper than the one in 2008-2009. I guest we will see a >50% drop (in S&P500) in the end.
Still expect a >50% drop (in SP500) from the beginning to the bottom. Now we are already down ~32%, so it just needs another ~30% drawdown from here.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by garlandwhizzer » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 pm

MotoTrojan wrote regarding his expectations:

I’m expecting a higher price when I sell in 30 years. And I’m certain I got a better price today than last month. Nothing more.
1+

I think that's all you have to know if you're a long term investor in the accumulation phase unless you have an acute liquidity crisis. VOO (S&P 500 Index ETF) is down 32% in the last 30 days. For long term buy and hold investors it's on a great sale. Interestingly no one seemed afraid to buy it a month ago although there was a lot of very good future expectations baked into its price at that time. No one questioned those rosy future projections. Many in the investment community estimated high single digit corporate profit growth in 2020. To Vanguard's credit (and Schwab's), they sounded a note of caution, not anticipating a viral pandemic but strictly based on macroeconomic fundamentals which had risks. Now that that the price has dropped by almost a third many investors are afraid to even hold VOO which at this price has a lot of future bad news already priced into it IMO. The former optimistic future expectations have been tossed aside quietly and now replaced with a mad rush to LTT. Those grim future expectations now may in fact show up in the near term. Or they may be less severe than what is currently priced in. They were totally wrong about a month ago when the market hit an all time high. The market was blind to risk a month ago and now risk control is all it thinks about, a bit late I might add. There is clearly risk in the near term but how long it will last and how deep it will go is unknown. I believe it probable that the market will turn in less than one year, maybe more, maybe less--I don't know. Nobody guesses the future accurately on a consistent basis, something I have learned the hard way. What we do know is the long term trajectory of the economy and the markets which has been upward for centuries. IMO substantial equity gains from where we are now is as close to certain as certain gets over the long term which is the only period long term investors should be focused on.

This CV-19 episode emphasizes is the strength of a balanced portfolio with adequate safe assets which allows you to sleep at night. It's a lot easier to hold on to risky equity if you're always prepared for it to tank.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by RayKeynes » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:54 am

I would guess the following with probabilities:

2'300 (10% probability)
2'100 (25% probability)
2'000 (25% probability)
1'850 (10% probability)
1'550 (30% probability), -54%

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by alexfoo39 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:48 am

2300.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by snowox » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:18 am

Between 1932 and 1972 on the S&P. I do think things get worse from here and we will spring back to around 2350 BUT then have to claw up gradually from there but all after alot of volatility and so on from news events on the Corona virus, The election, the Russia Saudi's backdrop and so on. Total guess .............

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by fennewaldaj » Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:10 am

DB2 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:36 pm
beth65 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:13 pm
DOW 11,000. This is going to get much worse because the fundamentals were shaky. The Fed was injecting over $600b of "not QE" into the overnight repo market since September, only weeks after many analysts, writers and economists thought that we were headed for recession in August. The markets went artificially higher and valuations were completely detached from reality. They inflated the bubbles far too much, and the first one to find a needle (Covid-19) exploded everywhere. I am not a permabear, but this will get worse.
I agree with your view and that number.

I also think when we (very unfortunately) hear of the absolute heartbreaking tragedies coming to the U.S. in the upcoming weeks; 1000+ deaths a day, rationed health care in many hospitals needed to make life and death decisions, lack of ventilators, etc. the market is going really dive on this kind of news. Once those numbers improve, anti-viral drugs becoming more available, etc. we'll reach that bottom most likely.
Italy is almost having that kind of news already. Their stock market is only down ~40%. Not sure what that means for us but thought it was worth mentioning

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Keenobserver » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:45 pm

Anyone seeing SP going 2000 this month?

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by squirm » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:50 pm

Bears had it pretty easy so far that's why the steep and fast decline. It gets harder for them around 2100. Progressively harder at 1800 then 1550.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by KlangFool » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:57 pm

Folks,

My prediction for the bottom,

We had hit the bottom when we have enough masks for everyone and most people wear masks when they are outside the house.

KlangFool

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:04 pm

Klangfool may be right about the masks. I was traveling for work quite a bit during SARS and H1N1. I observed universal use of masks in a lot of areas. Here, people are sewing their own. By that measure we could be getting close.

I don't see me catching it with my current routine, I can tell you that.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:11 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:21 pm
Scooter57 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:17 pm
Here's my take on what will send things really plummeting:if the Fed lowers rates to zilch, and the market doesn't respond. The last decade was all about faith that low rates solve all market problems. If that faith is damaged, watch out below.
If that happens, the Fed will start buying stocks in order to help prop up prices.
I really hope the Fed doesn't buy stocks.

Talk about killing the risk premium.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:12 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:11 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:21 pm
Scooter57 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:17 pm
Here's my take on what will send things really plummeting:if the Fed lowers rates to zilch, and the market doesn't respond. The last decade was all about faith that low rates solve all market problems. If that faith is damaged, watch out below.
If that happens, the Fed will start buying stocks in order to help prop up prices.
I really hope the Fed doesn't buy stocks.

Talk about killing the risk premium.
If it happens, we might be looking at another lost decade for stocks. That might happen anyway. Or we might see the market recover quickly and zoom on to new heights.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by bugleheadd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:13 pm

i say sp500 1700

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:14 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:12 pm


If it happens, we might be looking at another lost decade for stocks. That might happen anyway. Or we might see the market recover quickly and zoom on to new heights.
We might be looking at a lost decade no matter what.

But if the Fed starts backstopping stock losses, I'm not going to be investing much in US stocks in the future.

I can't earn real money if there is no danger of losing real money.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:16 pm

There is no "bottom" , it is only a pothole. So I am greedy and pick up some stocks before you do.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by sperry8 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:28 pm

Keenobserver wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:45 pm
Anyone seeing SP going 2000 this month?
I see 2000. Timing, who knows, but yes, 2000.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:38 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:12 pm


If it happens, we might be looking at another lost decade for stocks. That might happen anyway. Or we might see the market recover quickly and zoom on to new heights.
We might be looking at a lost decade no matter what.

But if the Fed starts backstopping stock losses, I'm not going to be investing much in US stocks in the future.

I can't earn real money if there is no danger of losing real money.
Very true. Ex-U.S. stock may finally turn the corner and start outperforming U.S. stock for a long while.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by deikel » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:50 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:38 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:12 pm


If it happens, we might be looking at another lost decade for stocks. That might happen anyway. Or we might see the market recover quickly and zoom on to new heights.
We might be looking at a lost decade no matter what.

But if the Fed starts backstopping stock losses, I'm not going to be investing much in US stocks in the future.

I can't earn real money if there is no danger of losing real money.
Very true. Ex-U.S. stock may finally turn the corner and start outperforming U.S. stock for a long while.
How would that possibly happen ? The only country doing a good job about the virus is South Korea (and China got it under control, but at a horrible cost). You can hope its not ravaging Africa much or miraculously sparing south america or russia - but asia/india and middle east will be in full blast.

If anyone will come out of this better then others its the US, I see no way that international will be a better position then US in the near future...neither will it take a decade to fix this.

We will reasonably soon have bed capacity, a somewhat working treatment for the very ill and in 12 months a vaccine that will work somewhat - all three will allow us to open up work again.

An ugly 8 weeks ahead of us for sure (or the entire Q2 really), but after that, it will get better

'The Hammer and the Dance' it will be...


S+P will fall to 1800-2000, that is the bottom, roughly in 10 days
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:09 pm

deikel wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:50 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:38 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:12 pm


If it happens, we might be looking at another lost decade for stocks. That might happen anyway. Or we might see the market recover quickly and zoom on to new heights.
We might be looking at a lost decade no matter what.

But if the Fed starts backstopping stock losses, I'm not going to be investing much in US stocks in the future.

I can't earn real money if there is no danger of losing real money.
Very true. Ex-U.S. stock may finally turn the corner and start outperforming U.S. stock for a long while.
How would that possibly happen ? The only country doing a good job about the virus is South Korea (and China got it under control, but at a horrible cost). You can hope its not ravaging Africa much or miraculously sparing south america or russia - but asia/india and middle east will be in full blast.

If anyone will come out of this better then others its the US, I see no way that international will be a better position then US in the near future...neither will it take a decade to fix this.

We will reasonably soon have bed capacity, a somewhat working treatment for the very ill and in 12 months a vaccine that will work somewhat - all three will allow us to open up work again.

An ugly 8 weeks ahead of us for sure (or the entire Q2 really), but after that, it will get better

'The Hammer and the Dance' it will be...


S+P will fall to 1800-2000, that is the bottom, roughly in 10 days
As we were discussing, this may depend significantly on the Fed's actions. If the Fed backstops the stock market, then the risk premium associated with stocks may evaporate.

These are only possibilities, not certainties or predictions.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by 1789 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:15 pm

Anyone's guess is as valid as others. I am throwing a number here. 1677 for SP500 is the bottom. Around 25% more to go. Good luck, keep buying.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by grettman » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:20 pm

It will settle around 65% down.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:28 pm

grettman wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:20 pm
It will settle around 65% down.
That wouldn't be bad, cause the second 30% won't hurt as much as the first 30%. ;)
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by TNOA » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:29 pm

grettman wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:20 pm
It will settle around 65% down.
+1
Because that would be around the 61.8% Retracement level 1720 (since 2008 low).

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:30 pm

pothole. the bottom was 100 years ago.

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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:12 pm

This thread has run its course and is locked (topic exhausted, going in several directions). See: Locked Topics
Moderators or site admins may lock a topic (set it so no more replies may be added) when a violation of posting policy has occurred. Occasionally, even if there are no overt violations of posting policy, a topic (or thread) will reach a point where the information content of the discussion has been essentially exhausted and further replies are much more likely to cause distress to the community than add anything of value.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:16 pm

I've deleted numerous off topic posts. Despite Lady Geek's warning to.stay on topic (guess).this has turned into another virus thread.
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Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by wkimdds » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:58 pm

[Thread merged into here, see below (next Page). --admin LadyGeek]

The last thread was locked due to people talking about virus too much. Lets stay on topic and guess the bottom of the dip.

Imo, 2000-2100

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by theorist » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:00 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:58 pm
The last thread was locked due to people talking about virus too much. Lets stay on topic and guess the bottom of the dip.

Imo, 2000-2100
Is that S&P or Dow? 🙂

I’ll take S&P 500 at 2000.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by wkimdds » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:03 pm

theorist wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:00 pm
wkimdds wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:58 pm
The last thread was locked due to people talking about virus too much. Lets stay on topic and guess the bottom of the dip.

Imo, 2000-2100
Is that S&P or Dow? 🙂

I’ll take S&P 500 at 2000.

S&P... if dow hits 2000, we are pretty darn close to stone ages

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by MishkaWorries » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:23 pm

I don't know the bottom but I do know the next leg down will start the instant I finally get the nerve to invest my IRA and HSA funds.
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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by palanzo » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:25 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:58 pm
The last thread was locked due to people talking about virus too much. Lets stay on topic and guess the bottom of the dip.

Imo, 2000-2100
S&P 666

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by bliksem55 » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:04 pm

S&P around 2080 and on April 17 @ 3:15 pm.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by SlowlySaving » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:13 pm

S&P 1450-2000!
If I had to take one guess 1800

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:21 pm

S&P 1780.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by Nate79 » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:42 pm

Let's not and say we did. This is just about as anti Bogleheads as you can get. Except maybe for buying bitcoin.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by DonIce » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:47 pm

Low of 2191.90, intraday, on March 23rd 2020.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by nisiprius » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:39 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:42 pm
Let's not and say we did.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by RiotAct » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:41 pm

1906.67

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by averagedude » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:47 pm

We have already bottomed. Bought some on the 23rd. Hope I am wrong so I can buy more.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by Dr. Long » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:49 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:58 pm
Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession
Let's not
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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by percy » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 pm

S&P 1600

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by Angst » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 pm

It'll be when Warren Buffett starts talking again.

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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by sperry8 » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:53 pm

Angst wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 pm
It'll be when Warren Buffett starts talking again.
I was thinking this too. He said he's not commenting on this until his annual meeting first week in May. And he sold some airline shares at a loss to get under 10% (and now doesn't have to telegraph his moves - which I can only imagine means he will sell more). Seems to me Mr Buffet feels more pain to come. When I see him backstop some failing company or airline, then I'll know the bottom is in.
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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by watchnerd » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:56 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:42 pm
Let's not and say we did. This is just about as anti Bogleheads as you can get. Except maybe for buying bitcoin.
+1

Dumb threads are dumb.
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Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by watchnerd » Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:58 pm

wkimdds wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:58 pm
The last thread was locked due to people talking about virus too much. Lets stay on topic and guess the bottom of the dip.

Imo, 2000-2100
I think you meant to post this to Reddit.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

stlutz
Posts: 5555
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:08 am

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by stlutz » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:01 pm

I agree with about 2000. There going to be a lot of unexpectedly bad news to come yet (even if the overall trajectory ends up being on the positive side).

barberakb
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:14 pm

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Post by barberakb » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:55 am

= 1955

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