Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Locked
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10727
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by MotoTrojan »

Chaconne wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:43 pm Sunday night 7:45 ET, and futures for the Dow and S&P 500 are both down over 4%. For what it's worth.
They have since been halted for exceeding a 5% decline. Japan and Australia are down closer to 6%. Fun week ahead.
User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 2059
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by firebirdparts »

Yeah, I lost.

Where's that dead cat thread?

She not just merely dead, she's really most sincerely dead*

*Munchkinland Coroner's Report
A fool and your money are soon partners
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6405
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Stinky »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:33 pm Yeah, I lost.

Where's that dead cat thread?

She not just merely dead, she's really most sincerely dead*

*Munchkinland Coroner's Report
Ditto.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10727
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by MotoTrojan »

So did we hit the low today?
Topic Author
GaryA505
Posts: 756
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:59 pm
Location: New Mexico

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GaryA505 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 pm So did we hit the low today?
Maybe. It was pretty bad.
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10727
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by MotoTrojan »

GaryA505 wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:22 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 pm So did we hit the low today?
Maybe. It was pretty bad.
I hope it hasn’t.
quasar
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:33 pm
Location: USA

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by quasar »

SPX target $2400. Test Dec 2018 low. Fair value $2200 to $2600
tmcc
Posts: 448
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:38 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by tmcc »

I didnt read the thread but I'll speculate 2500 +/-

December 2018 lows

Under there its the trump inauguration lows barring some event like tax cuts that would be market moving
User avatar
Darth Xanadu
Posts: 786
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:47 am
Location: Middle Earth

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Darth Xanadu »

Darth Xanadu wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:13 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:15 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:56 pm Today’s close.

2,954.22 for the S&P.

You heard it in this thread first.
As of now, I’m one of several on this thread who are the “winners”.

We’ll see if the 2954.22 holds over the next few weeks.
I am rooting hard for you to win this thing.

I personally think you have almost no shot.

S&P 2,665.
Well, as it turns out, I too was overly optimistic!
Prudence
Posts: 570
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 4:55 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Prudence »

I noticed that the Dow dropped 53.4% between October 07 and March 09, so, given what is happening in Europe now, I am guessing a 50% drop in the S&P to 1,696 and it could happen pretty quickly.
trusttheprocess
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon May 07, 2018 5:08 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by trusttheprocess »

I will throw my hat into the ring... SP 500 bottom of 1,876
Dottie57
Posts: 9544
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm
Location: Earth Northern Hemisphere

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Dottie57 »

I don’t think this is a “dip” but maybe the formation of a tsunami.
LawProf
Posts: 145
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:32 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by LawProf »

LawProf wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:17 am Prediction: 40%.

I think it could easily go lower, but I think the government will step in to buttress the market at some point. We live in a flat world now, and this virus threatens to seriously disrupt that. Centralization and interconnectivity provide great efficiencies and benefits, but they also make the risks bigger. We're about to experience some of those risks. There are a lot of chain reaction, political risks in play, too. People who are saying that the virus is no big deal/flu kills more people every year have their heads in the sands.

The U.S. hasn't even really started to panic yet. It's coming.
I'll stick with 40% or S&P @ 2036.
guyinlaw
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by guyinlaw »

guyinlaw wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:25 am 2400 in Spring and 1800 in Fall. This might be W shape, with many Ws.

If the virus is to stay with us until the vaccine 12+ months away and elections. It will be one heck of a ride.
Wondering if we will go below 2400 in the coming weeks, seems more likely..
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
mptfan
Posts: 6355
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by mptfan »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:08 pm If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
I admire your courage for putting yourself out there and giving a specific number. The S&P 500 closed at 2,479 yesterday, would you revise your prediction and say that is the bottom?
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22596
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by willthrill81 »

mptfan wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:57 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:08 pm If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
I admire your courage for putting yourself out there and giving a specific number. The S&P 500 closed at 2,479 yesterday, would you revise your prediction and say that is the bottom?
Based on the information now available, I think that the bottom is likely to be closer to 2,250. More bad news is very likely, and I think that this will shave off another ~10%.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Caduceus
Posts: 2810
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:47 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Caduceus »

mptfan wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:57 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:08 pm If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
I admire your courage for putting yourself out there and giving a specific number. The S&P 500 closed at 2,479 yesterday, would you revise your prediction and say that is the bottom?
Why is it courageous to throw out numbers? I will do it too so you can praise me. I predicted on a different thread on Wednesday that we'd have 10% more to go. Since the market dropped 10% on Thursday, that means I've predicted yesterday is as low as we'll go, lol. It's only going to go up from here, broskis!

We should have done the equivalent of the hedge fund contest on this one.
User avatar
gmaynardkrebs
Posts: 2135
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:48 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

Better to guess at the future "top." Investors are now painfully aware that there is a type of tail risk that that central banks can't rescue the market from. This risk will be strongly and negatively factored into equity prices no matter what happens. It's going to be a long time before we see the high S&P500 of earlier this year.
Caduceus
Posts: 2810
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:47 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Caduceus »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:18 am Better to guess at the future "top." Investors are now painfully aware that there is a type of tail risk that that central banks can't rescue the market from. This risk will be strongly and negatively factored into equity prices no matter what happens. It's going to be a long time before we see the high S&P500 of earlier this year.
I hope you're right, but I've hedged my bets by buying fairly cheap call options that will protect my ability to invest a good portion of the next two years of my income at Thursday's prices. If you are right and prices stay low between now and January 2022, I'll lose most of the option premium I've already paid upfront. But if prices go up, the option profits will essentially help reduce my cost basis for any future stock purchases I make down to Thursday's prices.

I'm happy to pay for the hedge this time and will adjust my hedge downwards as my income comes in and I purchase the actual shares. We'll see how it works out in January 2022. (Incidentally, I bought the options at a 30% discount to the price they should be trading at according to Black-Scholes; there were lots of weird things happening in the market on Thursday).
Blue456
Posts: 1143
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:46 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Blue456 »

I think total drop of SP500 will be 80%. Higher than 2008-2009.
User avatar
Ramjet
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:45 am
Location: Cleveland

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Ramjet »

Blue456 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am I think total drop of SP500 will be 80%. Higher than 2008-2009.
So Coronavirus triggered WW3?
User avatar
Ramjet
Posts: 645
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:45 am
Location: Cleveland

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Ramjet »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:49 am
mptfan wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:57 am
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:08 pm If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
I admire your courage for putting yourself out there and giving a specific number. The S&P 500 closed at 2,479 yesterday, would you revise your prediction and say that is the bottom?
Based on the information now available, I think that the bottom is likely to be closer to 2,250. More bad news is very likely, and I think that this will shave off another ~10%.
This is where I'm at now
Blue456
Posts: 1143
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:46 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Blue456 »

Ramjet wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:37 am
Blue456 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am I think total drop of SP500 will be 80%. Higher than 2008-2009.
So Coronavirus triggered WW3?
No. But I think it will start mass panic in cities like New York when hospitals will not be able to ventilate patients because they are out of equipment and or staff. By that time, mayor will finally decide to close schools. Public transportation in a city that is highly dependent on one will also close. It will be too late by then. Mass panic will ensue with sp500 loss of 80% from its peak. Finally the sick staff will recover, patients with sever pneumonia and respiratory failure will die out and infection rate will decrease. Stocks will probably then sharply rebound.
User avatar
birdog
Posts: 905
Joined: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:35 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by birdog »

S&P 2346
User avatar
Forester
Posts: 1739
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Forester »

Tesla has to drop below $300 or $200 for true panic to set in.
We've had panic already and this t*** of a stock is still massively up. It's such a disconnect - SCV admittedly should be volatile but it's practically in GFC drawdown territory whereas Tesla is twice as high as last summer.
User avatar
JonnyDVM
Posts: 2338
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:51 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by JonnyDVM »

I think right now we’re hovering right about the average guess aren’t we?
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
barberakb
Posts: 293
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:14 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by barberakb »

37% down from the high
averagedude
Posts: 1315
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by averagedude »

Blue456 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am I think total drop of SP500 will be 80%. Higher than 2008-2009.
If this happens, I will push all my chips in the middle of the table in an all in bet. In reality, I would probably do this before it reaches 80%. This would put the dividend yield around 8% with a 30 year treasury around 1%.This will go against what my IPS says, but greed will probably over ride it.
Lee_WSP
Posts: 3722
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Lee_WSP »

The question remains...

Is the worst now over? Or yet to come? Because I was in Costco today and the panic buying was worse than it's ever been for the past 14 days. Yes, I go to Costco often.
jajlrajrf
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by jajlrajrf »

Someone asked this question on another forum last week. I won't bore you with my reasons why, but my guess was:

worst case: S+P 2000
median case: S+P 2300
best case: S+P 2600

We've already gone below my best case, though.
tesuzuki2002
Posts: 1156
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

from the very top? 53%
Keenobserver
Posts: 625
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Keenobserver »

jajlrajrf wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:06 pm Someone asked this question on another forum last week. I won't bore you with my reasons why, but my guess was:

worst case: S+P 2000
median case: S+P 2300
best case: S+P 2600

We've already gone below my best case, though.
+1 ..2200 i guess
Momus
Posts: 1023
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:23 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Momus »

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:53 pm The question remains...

Is the worst now over? Or yet to come? Because I was in Costco today and the panic buying was worse than it's ever been for the past 14 days. Yes, I go to Costco often.
Costco self check out was 80 persons deep to the back of the stores. Some of grocery stores you can't even get a cart because it's all being used.
Lee_WSP
Posts: 3722
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Lee_WSP »

Momus wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:24 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:53 pm The question remains...

Is the worst now over? Or yet to come? Because I was in Costco today and the panic buying was worse than it's ever been for the past 14 days. Yes, I go to Costco often.
Costco self check out was 80 persons deep to the back of the stores. Some of grocery stores you can't even get a cart because it's all being used.
I was talking to a supervisor and he told me that two of the other stores had to que people at the entrance because the fire marshal said the max occupancy was reached.
squirm
Posts: 3077
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by squirm »

Come on, bear markets do not go straight down. There's always backing and filling on the way down, aka bull traps.
Lee_WSP
Posts: 3722
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Lee_WSP »

squirm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:27 pm Come on, bear markets do not go straight down. There's always backing and filling on the way down, aka bull traps.
The fear gauge is still near the maximum, only slightly less bad than yesterday's close. Futures are down compared to the close. It's going to be a loooong weekend until Monday's open.
squirm
Posts: 3077
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by squirm »

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:26 pm
Momus wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:24 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:53 pm The question remains...

Is the worst now over? Or yet to come? Because I was in Costco today and the panic buying was worse than it's ever been for the past 14 days. Yes, I go to Costco often.
Costco self check out was 80 persons deep to the back of the stores. Some of grocery stores you can't even get a cart because it's all being used.
I was talking to a supervisor and he told me that two of the other stores had to que people at the entrance because the fire marshal said the max occupancy was reached.
You'd think these people would just get a membership pass to Sam's and avoid this.
justsomeguy2018
Posts: 1222
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:11 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

averagedude wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:51 pm
Blue456 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am I think total drop of SP500 will be 80%. Higher than 2008-2009.
If this happens, I will push all my chips in the middle of the table in an all in bet. In reality, I would probably do this before it reaches 80%. This would put the dividend yield around 8% with a 30 year treasury around 1%.This will go against what my IPS says, but greed will probably over ride it.
What if you've been unemployed for 6 months when it reaches that low point?

I think people (myself included) often tend to forget that they would likely be in a precarious financial situation were the Dow to lose 80% of its value.
justsomeguy2018
Posts: 1222
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:11 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by justsomeguy2018 »

squirm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:27 pm Come on, bear markets do not go straight down. There's always backing and filling on the way down, aka bull traps.
Good point - we've seen a few bull traps already the last few weeks. Was today a bull trap, or did we reach a bottom yesterday?
squirm
Posts: 3077
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by squirm »

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:29 pm
squirm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:27 pm Come on, bear markets do not go straight down. There's always backing and filling on the way down, aka bull traps.
The fear gauge is still near the maximum, only slightly less bad than yesterday's close. Futures are down compared to the close. It's going to be a loooong weekend until Monday's open.
The fear gauge can also be used as a counter indicator.
squirm
Posts: 3077
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by squirm »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:30 pm
squirm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:27 pm Come on, bear markets do not go straight down. There's always backing and filling on the way down, aka bull traps.
Good point - we've seen a few bull traps already the last few weeks. Was today a bull trap, or did we reach a bottom yesterday?
I expect more backing and filling on the way down. There's now an official lower low from May 2019. While this isn't a certainty, it implies lower prices ahead.
User avatar
Noobvestor
Posts: 5702
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Noobvestor »

I'll be the optimist and say we reached the bottom yesterday (March 12). Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised by another 20% drop, though.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
Lee_WSP
Posts: 3722
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Lee_WSP »

Noobvestor wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:38 pm I'll be the optimist and say we reached the bottom yesterday (March 12). Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised by another 20% drop, though.
I really really really want to believe that, but I just can't think of a rational reason stocks should now shoot back up.

I mean, did the stock market over sell? Is that the rational reason? Because with each passing day, more and more events are being canceled. The economic impacts of putting a good chunk of businesses on hold cannot be known until the fall.
squirm
Posts: 3077
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by squirm »

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:41 pm
Noobvestor wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:38 pm I'll be the optimist and say we reached the bottom yesterday (March 12). Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised by another 20% drop, though.
I really really really want to believe that, but I just can't think of a rational reason stocks should now shoot back up.

I mean, did the stock market over sell? Is that the rational reason? Because with each passing day, more and more events are being canceled. The economic impacts of putting a good chunk of businesses on hold cannot be known until the fall.
You should be asking why the market melted up since last summer. I consider that a distribution period, that's why it was so easy for the bears to take out. The wipe out was very quick, a ton of complacency since last summer with implied backstops. Now I figure the low hanging fruit is gone, it will result in the more usual back and fill, but downwards.
Last edited by squirm on Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
rustymutt
Posts: 3969
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 12:03 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by rustymutt »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 pm So did we hit the low today?
Maybe. But my personal opinion isn't one you'll like.
Maybe another 20% down next week.

If so, I'll buy into a fund.
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.
MotoTrojan
Posts: 10727
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by MotoTrojan »

rustymutt wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:48 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 pm So did we hit the low today?
Maybe. But my personal opinion isn't one you'll like.
Maybe another 20% down next week.

If so, I'll buy into a fund.
I love your opinion, just make sure it happens before my 401k hits.
averagedude
Posts: 1315
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by averagedude »

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:29 pm
averagedude wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:51 pm
Blue456 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am I think total drop of SP500 will be 80%. Higher than 2008-2009.
If this happens, I will push all my chips in the middle of the table in an all in bet. In reality, I would probably do this before it reaches 80%. This would put the dividend yield around 8% with a 30 year treasury around 1%.This will go against what my IPS says, but greed will probably over ride it.
What if you've been unemployed for 6 months when it reaches that low point?

I think people (myself included) often tend to forget that they would likely be in a precarious financial situation were the Dow to lose 80% of its value.
Fair point. My situation is different. I'm a blue collar worker that does grunt labor and only earns slightly above the median salary in the United States. I feel that I could get another job, because grunt labor is always in demand. Even in the great financial crisis, I could easily find a job in my area, although it would had been for less money. When it comes to social security, being in the middle of the income spectrum, the income of social security will provide over 65% of the income that I need. Actually I could live on social security alone in the future, but I will admit that it wouldn't be the lifestyle that me and my spouse would like. I do acknowledge that this is a first world problem and that physical health can be an issue when you depend on your health to supply your income. I am unlike most bogleheads, because the security blanket that this country provides to middle income people, makes it easy to take a gamble on the ingenuity and innovation of global business leaders.
CnC
Posts: 949
Joined: Thu May 11, 2017 12:41 pm

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by CnC »

rustymutt wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:48 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 pm So did we hit the low today?
Maybe. But my personal opinion isn't one you'll like.
Maybe another 20% down next week.

If so, I'll buy into a fund.

It has ±30% to drop after that.
User avatar
Noobvestor
Posts: 5702
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Noobvestor »

Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:41 pm
Noobvestor wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:38 pm I'll be the optimist and say we reached the bottom yesterday (March 12). Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised by another 20% drop, though.
I really really really want to believe that, but I just can't think of a rational reason stocks should now shoot back up.

I mean, did the stock market over sell? Is that the rational reason? Because with each passing day, more and more events are being canceled. The economic impacts of putting a good chunk of businesses on hold cannot be known until the fall.
I don't know that they'll shoot back up, but they might not drop below yesterday's close (which was a good bit lower than today's). As for why they might: the market overreacted and corrects upward, stimulus announcements, virus projections get better, who knows. The market managed to climb for the last decade to highs I didn't expect, and I can't pin down the exact reasons even in hindsight, let alone forecast the future.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
User avatar
Noobvestor
Posts: 5702
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 am

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Noobvestor »

squirm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:46 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:41 pm
Noobvestor wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:38 pm I'll be the optimist and say we reached the bottom yesterday (March 12). Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised by another 20% drop, though.
I really really really want to believe that, but I just can't think of a rational reason stocks should now shoot back up.

I mean, did the stock market over sell? Is that the rational reason? Because with each passing day, more and more events are being canceled. The economic impacts of putting a good chunk of businesses on hold cannot be known until the fall.
You should be asking why the market melted up since last summer. I consider that a distribution period, that's why it was so easy for the bears to take out. The wipe out was very quick, a ton of complacency since last summer with implied backstops. Now I figure the low hanging fruit is gone, it will result in the more usual back and fill, but downwards.
To be clear, when you say 'the market,' you mean the US stock market. International didn't follow suit. I'm not a timer or an expert, but valuations abroad have looked fine to me throughout. Maybe US large cap was overvalued, but I'm not so sure about ex-US dev or EM.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
Locked