Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

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GaryA505
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Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GaryA505 »

Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!

Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.

I'll start: -20%
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Godot »

-40% (S&P)
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by keanoz »

-20 % to -25 %
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Corsair »

S&P 500 @ 1,700 - 2,000 (additional 30-40% drop) :greedy
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Moolala
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Moolala »

-23.5% (S&P) followed by moderate gains and another substantial but not Recession-level dip later this year.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by geerhardusvos »

GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:37 pm Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!

Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.

I'll start: -20%
-30%

Although, I did just get rid of my small emergency fund by buying SP 500, so I hope this is the bottom
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Ramjet
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Ramjet »

Just shy of the bear market indicator of 20%, that way just like after December 2018, people can keep saying we're in the longest bull market ever :|
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by t1dbkk »

I just pulled the trigger and bought 3% of my AA at -15% and plan to buy every 15% sale, I mean, drop. I'm ready to buy all the way to 60%, so to me it doesnt matter much. In my mid 30s so got some 15+ years until I can call it a day
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by TheLaughingCow »

Logically, even if we assume 0 productivity for the next year, the discount on equities should be no more than 10%, assuming normal levels of productivity for the following years. After all, this year only constitutes a small fraction of the future cash flows which give stocks their value.

Further declines could be explained by panic, margin calls, and stop loss orders.

Of course as we can all see a 10% drop is not how the market reacted...
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Bernmaster »

World stock market down 20-25%, Emerging Markets >30%. Bought some extra VGWL shares this morning with my tax returns.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Iridium »

16% (in other words: today is the bottom)
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by niceguy7376 »

What is the base number for these % based on?]

I am more comfortable with a number of where you think it will dip down to
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GaryA505 »

Iridium wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:04 pm 16% (in other words: today is the bottom)
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GaryA505 »

niceguy7376 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:05 pm What is the base number for these % based on?]

I am more comfortable with a number of where you think it will dip down to
I believe the peak for the SP500 was about 3390.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Enzo IX »

My guess would be maybe about a 20% top to bottom loss.

A lot of shorts that have been squeezed have accelerated this selling along with panic selling by non bogleheads.

I think this coronavirus risk will alleviate in and month or so as the flu season abates.

Once risk is somewhat known and able to be calculated, the same problem still exists, there is no alternative for your money with the low interest environment.

Just a guess, nobody knows nothing.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by LincolnTunnel »

My guess: 40%.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GoldenFinch »

Moolala wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:46 pm -23.5% (S&P) followed by moderate gains and another substantial but not Recession-level dip later this year.
This crystal ball picture is off quite a bit. Actually, it’s just plain wrong. Must be fogged up or something. Here is what is going to happen: We will see a drop of 37.2% after which the S&P will skyrocket, and even exceed, its all time high. The free fall, also known as “The Great Panic of 2020,”will just be a tale for the investment history books and Bogleheads will all live happily ever after.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by NotTooDeepLearning »

My forecast: This virus throws the world into a moderate recession and US yields smash through zero. The central banks hit the gas hard and early and keep rates anchored to zero while restarting QE, but this doesn't accomplish anything since those levers have already been pulled. We end up in a deflationary spiral, the markets lose faith in central banks ability to keep the world economy afloat and we crash down 60%. Then policy makers start with fiscal stimulus which brings back inflation with no growth, starting a multi decade long bear market in treasuries.

Just kidding, nobody really knows what will happen.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Nicolas »

Ramjet wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:51 pm Just shy of the bear market indicator of 20%, that way just like after December 2018, people can keep saying we're in the longest bull market ever :|
+1. This is also my belief, though I hope we’ve seen the bottom.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by mjb »

GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:37 pm Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!

Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.

I'll start: -20%
-100% by 2020202020

I assume that by then we won't be trading stocks
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by JoeRetire »

GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:37 pm Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I don't like dip, particularly the bottom. That's where all the crusty bits are.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by HueyLD »

Bottom fishing can be very dangerous.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by hithere »

I have no idea what will happen in the future, but these central bankers can't postpone the recession forever. I hope that what they have done won't cause stagnation in the 2020s.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Lee_WSP »

Ramjet wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:51 pm Just shy of the bear market indicator of 20%, that way just like after December 2018, people can keep saying we're in the longest bull market ever :|
For some reason, this seems the most likely to me too.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Luckywon »

I guess it's today every day. At least, I act that way.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by halfnine »

1666.0
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by firebirdparts »

I think it might have been today.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Stinky »

Today’s close.

2,954.22 for the S&P.

You heard it in this thread first.
Last edited by Stinky on Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by ballons »

10-YR @ 1% or less.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by shans2000 »

Iridium wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:04 pm 16% (in other words: today is the bottom)
+1

It will recover from here, until the 1st major outbreak in the US at which point it will drop another 20%.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by alwyn »

I'll be the village pessimist to be taken lightly because my investment skills are very limited.

This thing spreads in the US, but the summer stops it -> 30-50%
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.

The latter might just reshape and redefine what America is for the better, so despite the fact that it will totally ruin my future retirement
I sometimes find myself rooting for it.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by SantaClaraSurfer »

I have no idea.

We are mid-career, 20+ years from retiring, and committed to steady purchases via automated 401(k) and our own after tax savings/investing. So, buy less high, buy more low, it all just moves forward in a (mostly) DCA fashion.

Once in awhile, since we buy ETFs, I can try to buy the dips on a given day if things are turbulent.

Coincidentally, we had around $5,000 this week that normally is earmarked for investments parked in our savings waiting to see a couple life outcomes (taxes, job change).

Decided to move that into equities today (ETFs via Schwab).

1. We got some good tax info.
2. The prices on some of our key ETFs looked great today, especially purchased as Market orders. I was getting 50 cent discounts. (Yay, a whopping $5 on 10 shares.)

Ie. SCHB, SCHF, SCHE, SLYV all had share prices that were eye-catching.

SLYV at $54.53 was less than the June 2014 high.
SCHB at $68.90 matched the January 2018 high. (But tbf it's been lower, recently as well!)

These prices could all go down further from here, but even if they do, this felt like a good price for these two ETFs for a buy and hold approach.

But, again, I have no idea where the bottom is! I don't think this represents a structural change, however, so much as an event.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GaryA505 »

SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:24 pm I have no idea.

We are mid-career, 20+ years from retiring, and committed to steady purchases via automated 401(k) and our own after tax savings/investing. So, buy less high, buy more low, it all just moves forward in a (mostly) DCA fashion.

Once in awhile, since we buy ETFs, I can try to buy the dips on a given day if things are turbulent.

Coincidentally, we had around $5,000 this week that normally is earmarked for investments parked in our savings waiting to see a couple life outcomes (taxes, job change).

Decided to move that into equities today (ETFs via Schwab).

1. We got some good tax info.
2. The prices on some of our key ETFs looked great today, especially purchased as Market orders. I was getting 50 cent discounts. (Yay, a whopping $5 on 10 shares.)

Ie. SCHB, SCHF, SCHE, SLYV all had share prices that were eye-catching.

SLYV at $54.53 was less than the June 2014 high.
SCHB at $68.90 matched the January 2018 high. (But tbf it's been lower, recently as well!)

These prices could all go down further from here, but even if they do, this felt like a good price for these two ETFs for a buy and hold approach.

But, again, I have no idea where the bottom is! I don't think this represents a structural change, however, so much as an event.
All that and no guess. :?
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by vanillagerm »

S&P 500 - 2347
Jeremiah 29:11
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by grayfox »

GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:37 pm Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!

Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.

I'll start: -20%
I'll assume it is based on S&P 500.

From the chart, it looks like the peak was 3386.15 on 2/19/2020. It closed this week at 2954.22.
So it is down -12.6% since the peak.

I bought stocks on 2/24, 2/27 and 2/27. If the market goes lower, I plan to buy more stocks. I would like to see some better bargains.

But I think that on Monday the S&P 500 will open higher. I also think that the S&P 500 will close out next week higher. So I will predict that this is the bottom of the dip.

Of course this is just a guess. It depends on what news comes out over the weekend. I actually have no idea what will happen next week and beyond.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Crushtheturtle »

alwyn wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:20 pm I'll be the village pessimist to be taken lightly because my investment skills are very limited.

This thing spreads in the US, but the summer stops it -> 30-50%
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.

The latter might just reshape and redefine what America is for the better, so despite the fact that it will totally ruin my future retirement
I sometimes find myself rooting for it.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Johnsson »

-16% from the previous high.

If you can believe what we're hearing... new cases are slowing and China's reopening mfg plants, so, things will look brighter next week. :?:

Hopefully they can stick to the facts and keep overdramatic hyperbole in check.
Last edited by Johnsson on Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by SantaClaraSurfer »

GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:31 pm
SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:24 pm I have no idea.

All that and no guess. :?
Okay! My actions today mean I put my guess that at in 8-12 months, however much lower this goes (maybe 7-15% more? who knows?) we will be back to around this level or better.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a big sell off if there's additional bad virus news (or otherwise) this year. Maybe the Dow could dip below 20,000 or more?

From a long term point of view, however, today's prices seemed good for SCHB and SLYV.

Of course, all of us who are still purchasing, will buy more if they go lower!

:happy
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Sandtrap »

GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:37 pm Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!

Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.

I'll start: -20%
-28%
94 days from yesterday.
Recovery:
Shortly after November 2020.

j :happy
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by GaryA505 »

Sandtrap wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:43 pm
GaryA505 wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:37 pm Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!

Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.

I'll start: -20%
-28%
94 days from yesterday.
Recovery:
Shortly after November 2020.

j :happy
Yea, shortly after November 2020, starting right after November 3rd.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by btq96r »

I think we'll hit a unofficial mini-recession. It'll only be one quarter of negative GDP growth, and the quarter thereafter will be positive, but anemic enough to feel like a recession because of unrealistic expectations about how quickly things should bounce back.

As for the markets, I don't have any numbers to offer a guess with, but this is feeling like a dead cat bounce coming up to me.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by SimpleGift »

During the 2003 SARS epidemic, though it only lasted a few months, the market sold off until people began to understand the scope and impacts of the virus (S&P 500 was down 10% at max, chart below) — even as new cases were showing up every day.
With Covid-19, we still don't know the global parameters of the virus, the number of people who will be infected, and what the impacts will be on the world economy. It's too soon for even an educated guess about the depth of market selloff.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by watchnerd »

Bernmaster wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:04 pm World stock market down 20-25%, Emerging Markets >30%. Bought some extra VGWL shares this morning with my tax returns.
You know emerging is down less than developed YTD so far, right?
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by MIretired »

I'll guess the S&P500 drops another 5-10% from here. About 200-300 more points to about 2700.
It could bottom there sometime in March or sometime in July-Aug., or both (double dip to same low.) And end the year about here; 2950.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by ray.james »

-18-19% if the temperatures help to recover and reduce the infection rate. I also think the worst time period is mid April-early May for the first quarter results.

If the temperature does not help and infection keeps going(as in Singapore), impact continues beyond 1 quarter, I expect ~32-36% drop.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by watchnerd »

-27% for VTI
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Jebediah »

firebirdparts wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:55 pm I think it might have been today.
Agreed, today. Esp if S Korean outbreak levels out over the weekend.

But then Covid comes roaring back in the fall, overwhelms, and we get the nightmare scenario, -40% pre-election, keeps dropping post-election for a total -65% loss.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by willthrill81 »

This weekend's developments may have a big impact on news regarding the virus, which is certainly the cause for the current correction. I think that the worst of the drop may be behind us now though.

If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by Stinky »

alwyn wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:20 pm
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.
So stocks drop below zero?

Sounds like a time to back up the truck :D
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Post by watchnerd »

Stinky wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:10 pm
alwyn wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:20 pm
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.
So stocks drop below zero?

Sounds like a time to back up the truck :D
I'll go 140% stocks if they fall below zero!
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